10/20/24 – My latest FOIA request revealed some surprising details about Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending in the San Jacinto Watershed and how it contrasts to the Brays Bayou Watershed.
For several years, I have tracked HCFCD spending by watershed and project phase on a quarterly basis. I have discovered tremendous disparities in flood mitigation funding across the county.
From high to low, the ratio varies by more than 1000:1. The types of activities also vary greatly from watershed to watershed. The Brays and San Jacinto Watersheds make illuminating examples.
San Jacinto Watershed Vs. Brays
Out of the county’s 23 watersheds, the San Jacinto ranks in the bottom half of total funding since Harvey. Despite being the county’s largest watershed and having the most severe flooding, it comes in at #13 in terms of dollars received.
The San Jacinto Watershed received approximately $40 million between Harvey and the end of the third quarter in 2024. That’s less than 2% of the total $2.03 billion HCFCD has spent since Harvey.
Compare that to Brays Bayou where Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives.
Brays has received 10% of all the money spent by HCFCD since Harvey – $202.4 million out of $2.03 billion. That’s more than five times as much as the San Jacinto.
The totals show an impressive difference. But they don’t tell the whole story.
71% of Brays spending has gone into construction activities that actually reduce flood risk.
Meanwhile, the San Jacinto watershed received a fifth as much in total dollars. And one tenth as much went into construction that actually reduces flooding.
Data from FOIA Request
Details of San Jacinto Spending: Where Money Went
Drilling down even deeper into the data, I discovered that virtually all of the San Jacinto “construction” spending was classified as maintenance. In other words, the construction dollars went toward repairing the insufficient infrastructure that resulted in the county’s worst flooding. Very little went toward construction of new capital improvement projects.
On a sad note, HCFCD reported spending $230 on true capital-improvement construction in the San Jacinto Watershed. That’s not a typo. We’re not talking about thousands or millions. We’re talking about just a little more money than the default withdrawal from most ATMs.
That was for the Excavation and Removal (E&R) Project on the Woodridge Village property. HCFCD later cancelled the E&R project when it applied for HUD grants for Woodridge and Taylor Gully improvements.
E&R contracts give contractors the right to sell dirt excavated from detention basins in exchange for a nominal fee, usually $1,000. They make their money, not from HCFCD, but from developers, homebuilders and road builders who buy the dirt at market rates.
The single largest expenditure in the San Jacinto Watershed since Harvey was for the purchase of the Woodridge Village property itself for $13,994,735.
Spike in middle of graph is purchase of Woodridge property. Other spike in 2022 was dredging.
Here’s a breakdown of $40 million in spending against all significant projects.
Spending in San Jacinto Watershed Since Harvey
Amount 17Q3 – 24-Q3
Purchase of Woodridge Village
$13,994,735
Unspecified Maintenance Projects, most classified as construction
$8,303,416
County’s Share of Dredging (East and West Forks)
$7,278,626
SJRA’s San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan
$2,777,980
Bens Branch Conveyance Improvements (maint)
$1,788,949
Panther Creek Feasibility Study
$1,744,343
Kingwood Diversion Ditch Preliminary Engineering
$872,759
Baytown Storm Sewer Improvements Design Study
$810,869
Taylor Gully Preliminary Engingeering Study
$584,179
Atascocita Preliminary Flood Reduction Study
$541,186
Drainage Study for Watersheds East of Lake Houston
$298,534
Deer Park Project(s)/Design and Right of Way
$213,089
SJRA’s River Basin Sedimentation Study
$162,500
Indian Shores Partnership Project
$130,000
SJRA’s San Trap Location Study
$128,820
Redesign of Failed Sheet Pile Wall/Location Not Specified)
$118,799
Boggy Gully Study
$42,280
Lake Houston Gates Study
$23,547
USACE Support on West Fork Dredging
$9,265
$7.2 million of the HCFCD money spent in the San Jacinto Watershed since Harvey has gone toward studies. That’s almost twice as much as the $3.7 million spent on studies in the Brays Watershed during the same period.
The engineering studies are necessary to qualify for grants which might eventually lead to construction projects that mitigate flooding. But since the studies exist only on paper, they don’t actually reduce any flooding. At least, not until they qualify the area for funding.
Less than $2 Million Per Quarter with Two Exceptions
Here’s how San Jacinto Watershed funding breaks down over time.
Tall blip in middle contains Woodridge purchase. Blip in Q3 22 includes county’s share of dredging.
The thing that chaps me most about all this is Commissioner Rodney Ellis continually harping about how Kingwood gets all the money. He has convinced low-income people throughout the county that areas with high-dollar homes get all the money. The opposite is true according to the data.
Meanwhile, Ellis is pushing funding from just about everywhere else into the watershed where he lives.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SJR-Basin-Pie-e1729480716722.png?fit=1100%2C654&ssl=16541100adminadmin2024-10-20 22:03:402024-10-21 09:38:30Details of HCFCD Spending in San Jacinto Watershed Since Harvey
10/19/24 – Tropical Storm Nadine and Hurricane Oscar formed within hours of each other in the last 24 hours. Neither is a threat to Texas. But they put the Atlantic Basin over the average number of named storms it gets during hurricane season and near the low end of predictions made earlier this year.
Nadine (left) and Oscar (right) as of 2 PM CDT
Tropical Storm Nadine
Nadine formed near the Mexican coastline and will quickly move inland near the border with Belize. Nadine’s chances of formation had steadily increased over the last few days.
Hurricane Oscar
Oscar was a different story. Yesterday morning, the disorganized area of showers had only a 20% chance of formation. By this afternoon, it had turned into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph hour winds. The small hurricane could strengthen some more today before weakening and dissipating next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward from Oscar up to 5 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. At 2 PM, the eye was 3 miles wide.
Oscar could dump up to six inches of rain on Cuba, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center predicts no additional tropical developments in the next seven days.
Season To Date
Earlier this year, forecasters predicted an extremely active hurricane season. These two storms – numbers 14 and 15 – put the season total near the low end of the range predicted by the NHC in May.
The table below shows the average number of storms in the Atlantic basin during the last three decades.
So far in the Atlantic Basin this year, we’ve had:
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Nadine-and-Oscar.jpg?fit=678%2C368&ssl=1368678adminadmin2024-10-19 14:17:272024-10-19 14:17:29Nadine and Oscar Form within Hours of Each Other
10/18/24 – According to the US Drought Monitor, Houston has officially slipped into a moderate drought.
Talk about wacky weather. According to the National Weather Service, the Houston area has already recorded its average annual rainfall – with two and a half months left in the year.
NOAA shows that normally we receive 41.52 inches by October 18 in an average year. But so far this year, at IAH, the official recording station, we have received 51.2 inches.
From NWS NowData. The big jump in the blue line reflects Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
So, we are 24% ahead of the average annual rainfall for this date … and in drought. But it gets even more wacky.
I live in the center of Kingwood just a few miles northeast of the airport. And my rain gage has recorded 64.58 inches so far. That’s 54% ahead of the average YTD rainfall.
Looking Ahead
The NWS Climate Prediction Center says that a weak La Niña has a 60% chance to emerge by November and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.
Effect of La Niña on Texas Weather in Fall and Winter
According to ChatGPT, La Niña has significant impacts on Texas weather, especially during the fall and winter seasons. Here’s how La Niña typically affects Texas:
1. Warmer-than-Average Temperatures
Fall and Winter in Texas during a La Niña event tend to be warmer than usual, especially in southern and central Texas. The jet stream tends to shift northward, allowing more warm air to persist over the state. This can lead to milder winters, especially compared to neutral or El Niño conditions.
2. Drier-than-Average Conditions
La Niña often brings below-average rainfall to Texas, particularly in the southern and central regions. This is due to the altered jet stream pattern, which pushes storm tracks farther north, leaving Texas and much of the southern U.S. drier than normal. As a result, drought conditions can develop or worsen, especially in the winter months.
3. Increased Risk of Drought
Because La Niña tends to cause drier-than-average conditions, it can exacerbate drought conditions. This is particularly concerning for Texas, which is prone to periodic droughts. Reduced winter rainfall means less moisture in the soil and reservoirs, affecting agriculture, water supply, and wildfire risks.
4. Wildfire Risk
With drier conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures, the risk of wildfires tends to increase during La Niña winters. This is especially the case in late fall and early winter when vegetation can become dry and more susceptible to fires.
What a wild ride this year has been!!! In the first half of the year, we thought we would drown. Now we could dry up and blow away.
Of course, all averages include extremes. By definition, they mask variation. And this year, they could mask a lot.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/18/24
2607 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Texas-Drought-10.15.24.png?fit=2516%2C1424&ssl=114242516adminadmin2024-10-18 14:17:082024-10-18 14:20:3024% Ahead of Rainfall for Year, Houston Slips into Drought
Details of HCFCD Spending in San Jacinto Watershed Since Harvey
10/20/24 – My latest FOIA request revealed some surprising details about Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending in the San Jacinto Watershed and how it contrasts to the Brays Bayou Watershed.
For several years, I have tracked HCFCD spending by watershed and project phase on a quarterly basis. I have discovered tremendous disparities in flood mitigation funding across the county.
From high to low, the ratio varies by more than 1000:1. The types of activities also vary greatly from watershed to watershed. The Brays and San Jacinto Watersheds make illuminating examples.
San Jacinto Watershed Vs. Brays
Out of the county’s 23 watersheds, the San Jacinto ranks in the bottom half of total funding since Harvey. Despite being the county’s largest watershed and having the most severe flooding, it comes in at #13 in terms of dollars received.
The San Jacinto Watershed received approximately $40 million between Harvey and the end of the third quarter in 2024. That’s less than 2% of the total $2.03 billion HCFCD has spent since Harvey.
Compare that to Brays Bayou where Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives.
Brays has received 10% of all the money spent by HCFCD since Harvey – $202.4 million out of $2.03 billion. That’s more than five times as much as the San Jacinto.
The totals show an impressive difference. But they don’t tell the whole story.
71% of Brays spending has gone into construction activities that actually reduce flood risk.
Details of San Jacinto Spending: Where Money Went
Drilling down even deeper into the data, I discovered that virtually all of the San Jacinto “construction” spending was classified as maintenance. In other words, the construction dollars went toward repairing the insufficient infrastructure that resulted in the county’s worst flooding. Very little went toward construction of new capital improvement projects.
On a sad note, HCFCD reported spending $230 on true capital-improvement construction in the San Jacinto Watershed. That’s not a typo. We’re not talking about thousands or millions. We’re talking about just a little more money than the default withdrawal from most ATMs.
That was for the Excavation and Removal (E&R) Project on the Woodridge Village property. HCFCD later cancelled the E&R project when it applied for HUD grants for Woodridge and Taylor Gully improvements.
E&R contracts give contractors the right to sell dirt excavated from detention basins in exchange for a nominal fee, usually $1,000. They make their money, not from HCFCD, but from developers, homebuilders and road builders who buy the dirt at market rates.
The single largest expenditure in the San Jacinto Watershed since Harvey was for the purchase of the Woodridge Village property itself for $13,994,735.
Here’s a breakdown of $40 million in spending against all significant projects.
$7.2 million of the HCFCD money spent in the San Jacinto Watershed since Harvey has gone toward studies. That’s almost twice as much as the $3.7 million spent on studies in the Brays Watershed during the same period.
The engineering studies are necessary to qualify for grants which might eventually lead to construction projects that mitigate flooding. But since the studies exist only on paper, they don’t actually reduce any flooding. At least, not until they qualify the area for funding.
For instance, none of the studies that HCFCD partnered with the SJRA on (River Basin Master Drainage Study, Sedimentation, Sand Traps) have advanced to the construction phase yet.
Less than $2 Million Per Quarter with Two Exceptions
Here’s how San Jacinto Watershed funding breaks down over time.
The thing that chaps me most about all this is Commissioner Rodney Ellis continually harping about how Kingwood gets all the money. He has convinced low-income people throughout the county that areas with high-dollar homes get all the money. The opposite is true according to the data.
Meanwhile, Ellis is pushing funding from just about everywhere else into the watershed where he lives.
Such heavy-handed politics make me skeptical about the 63% tax increase being proposed by HCFCD.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/20/2024
2609 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Nadine and Oscar Form within Hours of Each Other
10/19/24 – Tropical Storm Nadine and Hurricane Oscar formed within hours of each other in the last 24 hours. Neither is a threat to Texas. But they put the Atlantic Basin over the average number of named storms it gets during hurricane season and near the low end of predictions made earlier this year.
Tropical Storm Nadine
Nadine formed near the Mexican coastline and will quickly move inland near the border with Belize. Nadine’s chances of formation had steadily increased over the last few days.
Hurricane Oscar
Oscar was a different story. Yesterday morning, the disorganized area of showers had only a 20% chance of formation. By this afternoon, it had turned into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph hour winds. The small hurricane could strengthen some more today before weakening and dissipating next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward from Oscar up to 5 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. At 2 PM, the eye was 3 miles wide.
Oscar could dump up to six inches of rain on Cuba, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center predicts no additional tropical developments in the next seven days.
Season To Date
Earlier this year, forecasters predicted an extremely active hurricane season. These two storms – numbers 14 and 15 – put the season total near the low end of the range predicted by the NHC in May.
The table below shows the average number of storms in the Atlantic basin during the last three decades.
So far in the Atlantic Basin this year, we’ve had:
And we still have six more weeks left in the season.
For an excellent recap of the season, including each storm within it, see the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Page on Wikipedia. It contains narratives on each storm plus statistical tables.
The next storms, if they form, will be:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/19/24
2608 Days since Hurricane Harvey
24% Ahead of Rainfall for Year, Houston Slips into Drought
10/18/24 – According to the US Drought Monitor, Houston has officially slipped into a moderate drought.
Talk about wacky weather. According to the National Weather Service, the Houston area has already recorded its average annual rainfall – with two and a half months left in the year.
NOAA shows that normally we receive 41.52 inches by October 18 in an average year. But so far this year, at IAH, the official recording station, we have received 51.2 inches.
So, we are 24% ahead of the average annual rainfall for this date … and in drought. But it gets even more wacky.
I live in the center of Kingwood just a few miles northeast of the airport. And my rain gage has recorded 64.58 inches so far. That’s 54% ahead of the average YTD rainfall.
Looking Ahead
The NWS Climate Prediction Center says that a weak La Niña has a 60% chance to emerge by November and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.
What does that mean for the Houston area?
Effect of La Niña on Texas Weather in Fall and Winter
According to ChatGPT, La Niña has significant impacts on Texas weather, especially during the fall and winter seasons. Here’s how La Niña typically affects Texas:
1. Warmer-than-Average Temperatures
2. Drier-than-Average Conditions
3. Increased Risk of Drought
4. Wildfire Risk
With drier conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures, the risk of wildfires tends to increase during La Niña winters. This is especially the case in late fall and early winter when vegetation can become dry and more susceptible to fires.
What a wild ride this year has been!!! In the first half of the year, we thought we would drown. Now we could dry up and blow away.
Of course, all averages include extremes. By definition, they mask variation. And this year, they could mask a lot.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/18/24
2607 Days since Hurricane Harvey