10/14/24 – Looking at the National Hurricane Center’s afternoon update, Yogi Berra’s famous quote comes to mind – “It ain’t over till it’s over.” Of course, Yogi was speaking of baseball and I’m speaking of the 2024 hurricane season.
NHC posted a new 7-day outlook at 1:28 this afternoon showing two areas of concern. One in the middle of the Atlantic has a 50% chance of development. The one in the western Caribbean has a 20% chance.
The first is where Cat 5 Hurricane Kirk just formed. The latter is the same general area where Cat 5 Hurricanes Helene and Milton formed within the last three weeks.
Central Atlantic Formation Chance Now 60 Percent
Here’s what NHC has to say about the orange area in the Central Atlantic.
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days.
However, this system will move generally westward toward warmer waters. There, environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.
A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.
National Hurricane Center
Formation chance through 48 hours is only 10 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is currently 60 percent. The formation chance has steadily increased for this area during the last few days.
Western Caribbean
Regarding that area in the Western Caribbean, NHC says this.
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week.
Some development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is 20 percent at this hour.
Remember: six more weeks of hurricane season. And it ain’t over till it’s over. So keep checking NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/14/24
2603 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/two_atl_7d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-10-14 13:58:252024-10-14 14:01:18It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over
10/12/24 – According to the minutes of latest Houston Public Works progress meeting Tree Lane Bridge repairs over Bens Branch were 57% complete as of 10/1/24 with 80% of the budget consumed. However, the contractor has completed a significant amount of additional work since then.
The million dollar project began in February. At the time, Public works predicted it would be complete by summer 2024. Unfortunately, that didn’t quite work out.
Status of Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
Completed as of mid-October:
Work under half of the bridge
Three of the four wing walls on either side of the Bens Branch, upstream and downstream of the bridge
Placement of rip rap next to the two eastern wing walls
Additional pilings/supports under both east and west sides of the bridge
A new storm-drain outfall on the southeast side
Not yet started:
Upstream work on the northwest wing wall
Soil grading (change order still pending)
Clean up
Reseeding
Still not moved:
Several pipes and cables
It’s unclear at this time whether the utilities are holding up any additional work, or whether they even have plans to move their property.
Downcutting of the stream bed through erosion exposed the pipe and cable, which used to be buried.
Pictures taken 10/12/24
In the progress meeting, the contractor estimated completion of Tree Lane Bridge repairs during the first week in November. The pictures below show the status of the work as of 10/12/24.
Wide shot of work to date.A new, concrete bed has been poured to reduce the rate of downcutting by the stream and protect the piers. Note, however, that it only extends halfway under the bridge so far.SE wing wall, new storm drain outfall and rip rap.SW wing wall and new outfallThe four round pilings are new and will provide additional support for the bridge.Similar supports have been placed on the opposite side.Look closely in picture above.Water pipe and cable still have not been moved.Note new rip rap to the right of the outfall. Rip-rap (the concrete chunks) reduces the velocity of concentrated, flowing water and therefore erosion.NW wing wall is complete, but new concrete bed under north side of bridge has not yet been started.Neither has theNW wing wall been started.
Pictures Taken Earlier
Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association board member and local flood fighter, took the three Tree Lane Bridge repair pictures below.
Work in progress on new pilings on 10/3/24. Original bottom of stream bed was approximately three feet higher than current level, as you can see from the concrete still clinging to one of the old pilings.
Luckily, we have been having ideal construction weather since Beryl in early July. The mild drought has kept flow in the channel low, allowing work under the bridge to proceed safely.
Will These Repairs Hold?
Additional upstream development has increased the flow in Bens Branch in recent years. The bridge stood for more than 40 years without problems. However, this is the third set of repairs since 2020.
The current repairs appear more substantial than previous ones. But if the amount of water coming downstream continues to increase, even these repairs won’t last long. Water routinely comes up to the bridge deck.
Photo by Chris Bloch of Tree Lane Bridge during TS Imelda.
One cannot overstate the potential danger. Bear Branch Elementary is next to the bridge. More than 600 students attend the school and dozens of school buses routinely cross over the bridge every school day.
Power of Moving Water
For a history of the project and to see what damage to the bridge looked like before repairs started, see these previous posts:
10/11/24 – The Northpark expansion project has definitely shifted into a higher gear. Today, contractors poured the fourth stretch of concrete along Northpark Drive in four weeks.
Today’s work focused on a new eastbound lane stretching from Russell Palmer Road to approximately 1,000 feet west.
Contractors began at 3 AM on the west and had worked their way east to Russell Palmer by 10 AM when I took the pictures below.
Looking W. Note fresh concrete left of center running virtually to Russell Palmer in foreground.Looking E. Crews worked like a well oiled machine, spreading then smoothing the concrete.They still need to pave additional lanes north (right) of the one they paved today.
The purpose of the expansion project is to accommodate growth and create an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents.
Crossover Closures
To pave the additional lanes, Harper Brothers Construction closed all of the Northpark crossovers between Russell Palmer Road and the entrance to Kings Mill. Crossovers east and west of that stretch will remain open. The crossovers within that stretch will remain closed for approximately two months.
Next Steps
The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority also refreshed its 3-week lookahead schedule yesterday. Next up:
Paving prep for westbound lanes starting at Russell Palmer and going to Northpark Christian Church
Traffic switch from Russell Palmer to Kings Mill
More dirt work from Culver’s to Chick-Fil-A for a westbound access road
Demolition of existing westbound lanes between Kings Mill and railroad.
Full closure of Russell Palmer/Northpark intersection for three days (Friday, Sat., Sun.) beginning October 25th.
Paving prep for:
Southbound lanes of Loop 494 on north side of Northpark
Southbound lanes of Loop 494 on south side of Northpark
Northbound lanes
Extend drainage under 494 and railroad tracks
To avoid construction delays, those who can take alternate routes for the foreseeable future probably should. Things will change on a daily basis.
It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over
10/14/24 – Looking at the National Hurricane Center’s afternoon update, Yogi Berra’s famous quote comes to mind – “It ain’t over till it’s over.” Of course, Yogi was speaking of baseball and I’m speaking of the 2024 hurricane season.
NHC posted a new 7-day outlook at 1:28 this afternoon showing two areas of concern. One in the middle of the Atlantic has a 50% chance of development. The one in the western Caribbean has a 20% chance.
The first is where Cat 5 Hurricane Kirk just formed. The latter is the same general area where Cat 5 Hurricanes Helene and Milton formed within the last three weeks.
Central Atlantic Formation Chance Now 60 Percent
Here’s what NHC has to say about the orange area in the Central Atlantic.
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days.
However, this system will move generally westward toward warmer waters. There, environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours is only 10 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is currently 60 percent. The formation chance has steadily increased for this area during the last few days.
Western Caribbean
Regarding that area in the Western Caribbean, NHC says this.
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week.
Some development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is 20 percent at this hour.
This is near where Helene and Milton began.
Remember: six more weeks of hurricane season. And it ain’t over till it’s over. So keep checking NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/14/24
2603 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Nearing Completion
10/12/24 – According to the minutes of latest Houston Public Works progress meeting Tree Lane Bridge repairs over Bens Branch were 57% complete as of 10/1/24 with 80% of the budget consumed. However, the contractor has completed a significant amount of additional work since then.
The million dollar project began in February. At the time, Public works predicted it would be complete by summer 2024. Unfortunately, that didn’t quite work out.
Status of Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
Completed as of mid-October:
Not yet started:
Still not moved:
It’s unclear at this time whether the utilities are holding up any additional work, or whether they even have plans to move their property.
Downcutting of the stream bed through erosion exposed the pipe and cable, which used to be buried.
Pictures taken 10/12/24
In the progress meeting, the contractor estimated completion of Tree Lane Bridge repairs during the first week in November. The pictures below show the status of the work as of 10/12/24.
Pictures Taken Earlier
Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association board member and local flood fighter, took the three Tree Lane Bridge repair pictures below.
Luckily, we have been having ideal construction weather since Beryl in early July. The mild drought has kept flow in the channel low, allowing work under the bridge to proceed safely.
Will These Repairs Hold?
Additional upstream development has increased the flow in Bens Branch in recent years. The bridge stood for more than 40 years without problems. However, this is the third set of repairs since 2020.
The current repairs appear more substantial than previous ones. But if the amount of water coming downstream continues to increase, even these repairs won’t last long. Water routinely comes up to the bridge deck.
One cannot overstate the potential danger. Bear Branch Elementary is next to the bridge. More than 600 students attend the school and dozens of school buses routinely cross over the bridge every school day.
Power of Moving Water
For a history of the project and to see what damage to the bridge looked like before repairs started, see these previous posts:
8/11/24 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Finally Starting Again, Hopefully for Last Time
6/28/24 Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started
4/9/24 City Begins Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
2/21/24 CoH Public Works Kicks Off Tree Lane Bridge Rehab Project
11/28/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch Still Standing
6/12/23 Flood Damage To Tree Lane Bridge Over Ben’s Branch Accelerates
1/29/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch Damaged…Again
3/21/22 How Insufficiently Mitigated Upstream Development Imposes Taxation without Representation on Downstream Residents
3/31/20 City Completes Repairs on Tree Lane Bridge, But Concerns Remain
2/29/20 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch: Before and After Repairs
12/2/19 Tree Lane Bridge vs. Power of Moving Water
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/12/2024
2601 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Northpark Expansion Shifting into Higher Gear
10/11/24 – The Northpark expansion project has definitely shifted into a higher gear. Today, contractors poured the fourth stretch of concrete along Northpark Drive in four weeks.
Today’s work focused on a new eastbound lane stretching from Russell Palmer Road to approximately 1,000 feet west.
Contractors began at 3 AM on the west and had worked their way east to Russell Palmer by 10 AM when I took the pictures below.
The purpose of the expansion project is to accommodate growth and create an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents.
Crossover Closures
To pave the additional lanes, Harper Brothers Construction closed all of the Northpark crossovers between Russell Palmer Road and the entrance to Kings Mill. Crossovers east and west of that stretch will remain open. The crossovers within that stretch will remain closed for approximately two months.
Next Steps
The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority also refreshed its 3-week lookahead schedule yesterday. Next up:
To avoid construction delays, those who can take alternate routes for the foreseeable future probably should. Things will change on a daily basis.
For More Information
Consult the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority project pages. Or see these ReduceFlooding posts:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/11/24
2600 Days since Hurricane Harvey