11/3/24 – The latest round of repairs to the understructure of the Tree Lane Bridge in Kingwood has been completed.
In recent years, flooding, erosion from severe storms, stream migration, and insufficiently mitigated upstream development had jeopardized the integrity of the bridge next to Bear Branch Elementary. Approximately 600 children attend Grades K through 5 at the school and dozens of school buses routinely cross over the bridge every school day.
Before Photos
The four pictures below show the starting point.
Imelda flood almost overtopped the bridgeand backed water up.Photo by Chris Bloch.Looking upstream at downstream side of the bridge. Water pressure created a jetting effect that undermined the support structure and eroded the area downstream. Downcutting exposed water line and utility cable.Closer shot shows the power of moving water. Storm drain outfall (right) was pinched off by debristhat broke away.Stormwater had also eaten away the concrete bed that tied supports together.
After Photos
Compare the next five shots taken on 11/3/24.
Upstream is left. Note how stream meander over time has Bens Branch approaching the bridge from a 45 degree angle now.
Meandering streams can impact bridges in a number of ways, including:
Altering flow characteristics: A meander at the upstream of a bridge can change the flow characteristics at the bridge’s inlet and outlet.
Reducing bridge capacity: A meander can reduce the amount of water a bridge can pass during a flood.
Creating channel instability: Channel instability near a bridge can increase the risk of bridge failure during a hydrologic event.
Meandering streams are characterized by their sinuous, snake-like channels. Meanders move sideways and downstream over time, which can create challenges for maintaining bridges and roads.
However, these repairs should improve safety …. at least for a while.
Looking upstream. Note new storm drain outfalls surrounded by concrete on the left and right.Note how the side slopes change from 45º to 90º about three feet above the bottom of the channel.
The stream bed was previously at where the wall angle changes. The area between the 90º walls represents additional carrying capacity (conveyance) for the channel under the bridge.
Also note, in the picture above, the addition of at least five new rounded piers to increase support for the bridge’s road bed. The old piers are square.
Storm sewer outfall is now at an angle. Same on the opposite side.
According to ChatGPT, “Storm sewer outfalls are often angled when they enter a stream to help manage the flow of water and sediment, reduce erosion, and improve the overall stability of the stream bank.”
Also note in this shot by Chris Bloch how contractors hydromulched slopes and areas disturbed by construction.
Hydromulching should reduce erosion from water flowing over the top of the channel bank.
Thanks to Houston Public Works and the City of Houston for these repairs. I’ll check to see how these improvements work in future storms.
For More Information
For a history of the project and to see additional photos, see these previous posts:
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/20241103-DJI_20241103083715_0140_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-11-03 12:06:442024-11-03 18:09:57Before-After Pics of 2024 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
11/2/24 – Numerous academic studies have found an increase in the number of storms with decreasing forward speeds, i.e., tropical cyclone stalling, when comparing recent decades with earlier periods.
Meteorologists call the distance that tropical cyclones travel in a given amount of time “tropical cyclone translation speed” or TCTS.
They have also found that TCTS is a key factor in determining the damage a tropical cyclone can cause to a community from rainfall, exposure to high winds, flooding and storm surge. That damage totals more than a trillion dollars in the last 40 years with death tolls in the thousands.
There is broad academic agreement on the increase in the number of slow-moving or stalling storms. And they identify the central Gulf Coast as one of the hot spots.
Some studies have also found a correlation between stalling storms and rapid intensification near coastlines, a red flag for emergency managers.
She says that regions experiencing tropical cyclones “will experience greater exposure to some of the most devastating aspects of tropical cyclones such as extreme rainfall, wind speeds, and flooding. Increased exposure to these elements could and will likely translate to a rise in both economic devastation and fatalities.”
21% decrease over land areas in the western North Pacific
16% decrease over land areas affected by North Atlantic tropical cyclones
22% decrease over land areas in the Australian region.
Remember, the more time a storm lingers over any given area, the higher the rainfall accumulations.
Hurricane Harvey a Notable Example
Kossin also notes that “unprecedented rainfall totals associated with the ‘stall’ of Hurricane Harvey13,14,15 over Texas in 2017 provide a notable example of the relationship between regional rainfall amounts and tropical-cyclone translation speed.”
Hurricane Harvey as it approached the Texas coast in 2017
Kossin concluded that the “translation speed of tropical cyclones, particularly over land, is therefore highly relevant when considering potential changes in local rainfall totals.”
The authors found that TCTS influences rainfall accumulation, storm surge, and exposure to high winds. These effects are greatest when storms stall.
Trepanier and her colleagues provide both a definition and climatology of slow-moving or stalling TCs in the North Atlantic from 1900–2020. “A stall is defined as a tropical cyclone (TC) with a track contained in a circular area … with a radius of ≤ 200 km for 72 hours.”
The authors found that of 1,274 North Atlantic tropical cyclones, 191 or 15% met this definition. Of those, 10 stalled more than once. Hurricane Ginger in 1971 stalled the most with four separate stalls.
“Stalling TC locations are clustered in the western Caribbean, the central Gulf Coast, the Bay of Campeche, and near Florida and the Carolinas,” say the authors. “Stalling was most common in October TCs (17.3% of October total) and least common in August (8.2%).”
Their study examined two time periods, 1900-2020 and 1966-2020, and statistically tested for trends in the annual frequency of stalling storms.
The estimated annual frequency of stalls significantly increased from 1966–2020 by 1.5% per year. The cumulative frequency in the number of stalls compared to all storms also increased.
“Stalling storms have a significantly higher frequency of major hurricane status than non-stalling storms. Storms are also more likely to stall near the coast (≤ 200 km). Approximately 40% (n=77) of the stalling TCs experienced a period of rapid intensification, and five did so within 200 km of a coastal zone.”
The authors believe their findings will help emergency managers better prepare for the future. Speaking of that…
Stay Alert
Remember that hurricane season isn’t over until the end of November. The National Hurricane center shows three areas of activity in the Atlantic. They’re giving the closest one in the southwestern Caribbean an 80% chance of formation in the next seven days.
Don’t let your guard down yet.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/2/24
2622 Days since Hurricane Harvey
*Extensive quotes from abstract reproduced with permission of copyright holder.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Harvey-Peak-Intensity.jpg?fit=1500%2C843&ssl=18431500adminadmin2024-11-02 12:27:302024-11-02 13:57:27Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Stalling
10/31/24 – An extreme rainfall event near Valencia in southern Spain on Tuesday this week fueled a spate of hasty climate-change stories. But was that the cause of the flooding?
A year’s worth of rain fell in a day. The area has an average annual rainfall of 17.87 inches. October is their rainiest month with an average 2.91 inches. But according to Fox News, they got:
19.33 inches in 8 hours
13.55 inches in 4 hours
6.5 inches in 1 hour
Harvey Comparison
That’s pretty stout, even by Houston standards, which gets triple the average annual rainfall of Valencia’s mediterranean climate.
In fact, had that rain fallen in the Lake Houston Area during those same time periods, NOAA would have classified it between a 500- and a 1000-year storm on the Atlas 14 scale. See below.
NOAA’s Atlas 14 Precipitation Frequency Estimates for Lake Houston Area
So, you can imagine the impact of that much rain in an area built to engineering standards that anticipate far less.
The death toll has climbed steadily throughout the day as search-and-rescue efforts uncover more fatalities. By 5 PM Houston time, the count had climbed to 158, but dozens still remain missing.
To put that into perspective, Harris County reported 36 deaths from Hurricane Harvey. And Harvey dropped three times the rain, but spread out over four days (August 25-29, 2017).
The major factor contributing to the different death tolls: Valencia is mountainous, and Houston is flat. The steeper geography accelerated the speed of floodwaters that carried away vehicles, bridges and even whole buildings.
Reporting is predictably focused on the gore. As the old saying in the news business goes, “If it bleeds, it leads.”
Climate-Change Hysteria
But there’s another predictable subtext to the stories: climate change. Several factors fuel the climate-change thread:
Readers’ desires for explanations in a less-than-predictable world.
Editors’ desires to provide them.
Academicians’ trying to raise their media profiles and obtain more grants to fund future studies on existential threats.
Poor public understanding of statistics and complex weather models
Private interests pushing agendas by using editorial content as incognito advertising.
Everyone’s desire to capitalize on a crisis to push their individual agendas.
Of several dozen stories from major news organizations that I reviewed for this post, only one (Fox News) refrained from climate-change speculation. It focused mainly on the rainfall amounts. Below is a rundown on several others.
Al Jezeera
Al Jazeera claimed, “Scientists warn that extreme weather such as heatwaves and storms is becoming more intense as a result of climate change.”
New York Times
The New York Times said, “Estimating the influence of climate change on any single flood event requires further analysis, but scientists have said that global warming is making storms in many regions more intense. Warmer air holds, and releases, more water.”
Then the Times went on to disclaim what they just implied. “Scientists convened by the United Nations have found no consistent trend in the way global warming is affecting extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean region…”
Guardian
The Guardian said, “In recent years, scientists have warned that the waters of the Mediterranean are rapidly warming, climbing as much as 5C above normal.”
What was it when the event occurred, Guardian? And if the relationhip is so strong, why didn’t the rainfall happen when the sea-surface temps were higher?
Reuters
Reuters said, “While experts say it will take time to analyze all the data to determine if this particular [event] was caused by climate change, most agree that an increase in temperature of the Mediterranean and warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions contribute to producing more frequent extreme episodes.” What is the increase, Reuters?
Basically, they’re saying, “The Spanish rains may not be related to climate change, but they could be…if you don’t look at recent data.”
CNN
CNN said, “Figuring out the precise role climate change played in Spain’s devastating floods will require further analysis, but scientists are clear that global warming, driven by fossil fuel pollution, makes these types of extreme rainfall events more likely and more intense.”
It reads like boilerplate.
The Independent
But some publications were more apocalyptic than others. The Independent took the prize in that department. “Climate crisis ‘worsened all 10 deadliest weather events,” the publication trumpeted.
The Independent claims “The deadliest weather events since 2004 caused more than 570,000 deaths and the ‘fingerprints’ of climate change were present, scientists say.”
We Need a White-Coat Rule for Climate Claims
If this were an advertisement as opposed to a news story, it would probably be illegal in the U.S. I remember a time when television commercials trumpeted equally unsubstantiated claims.
It led to the passage of the “white-coat” rule by the FTC. It used to be common to dress actors up in white coats to make claims for medical products. “Four out of five doctors recommend…” They were implying that a scientific study actually existed that said 80% of doctors recommended something. But what was the sample size? Five? Which five? And which four?
CBS Cites Source, Then Pulls Story
The publications above rarely cited the name of a scientist. And I only found one news source that actually cited a scientific study. That was CBS, which has since taken their story down. Turns out, their story referred not to a study, but the transcript of a UN press conference about “climate crunch time.” No actual study was linked to the UN press conference story.
Reporting Fuels Skepticism
Climate change may be real. But the reporting around it sure makes me skeptical. If there’s substance to these claims, why such vague boilerplate? Why do so few cite sources, studies and professional credentials?
Last year, I published a story called “Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News.” It reviewed an Associated Press story about a hurricane that struck Maine in 2023. It created 1-2 feet of storm surge and dropped 1-4 inches of rain. But this was a climate change disaster according to AP.
The Rockefeller Foundation admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
We need a white-coat rule for climate claims. No quoting unnamed, uncounted “scientists”! And if they actually exist, give us their credentials. Provide links to their studies in peer-reviewed journals.
We need more facts. Not more fuel for climate hysteria.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/31/24
2620 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SST-Valencia.jpg?fit=1100%2C648&ssl=16481100adminadmin2024-10-31 19:30:322024-11-01 18:07:37Rain in Spain and Sad, Sorry State of Climate-Change Speculation
Before-After Pics of 2024 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
11/3/24 – The latest round of repairs to the understructure of the Tree Lane Bridge in Kingwood has been completed.
In recent years, flooding, erosion from severe storms, stream migration, and insufficiently mitigated upstream development had jeopardized the integrity of the bridge next to Bear Branch Elementary. Approximately 600 children attend Grades K through 5 at the school and dozens of school buses routinely cross over the bridge every school day.
Before Photos
The four pictures below show the starting point.
After Photos
Compare the next five shots taken on 11/3/24.
Meandering streams can impact bridges in a number of ways, including:
Meandering streams are characterized by their sinuous, snake-like channels. Meanders move sideways and downstream over time, which can create challenges for maintaining bridges and roads.
However, these repairs should improve safety …. at least for a while.
The stream bed was previously at where the wall angle changes. The area between the 90º walls represents additional carrying capacity (conveyance) for the channel under the bridge.
Also note, in the picture above, the addition of at least five new rounded piers to increase support for the bridge’s road bed. The old piers are square.
According to ChatGPT, “Storm sewer outfalls are often angled when they enter a stream to help manage the flow of water and sediment, reduce erosion, and improve the overall stability of the stream bank.”
Also note in this shot by Chris Bloch how contractors hydromulched slopes and areas disturbed by construction.
Hydromulching should reduce erosion from water flowing over the top of the channel bank.
Thanks to Houston Public Works and the City of Houston for these repairs. I’ll check to see how these improvements work in future storms.
For More Information
For a history of the project and to see additional photos, see these previous posts:
10/12/24 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Nearing Completion
8/11/24 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Finally Starting Again, Hopefully for Last Time
6/28/24 Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started
4/9/24 City Begins Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
2/21/24 CoH Public Works Kicks Off Tree Lane Bridge Rehab Project
11/28/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch Still Standing
6/12/23 Flood Damage To Tree Lane Bridge Over Ben’s Branch Accelerates
1/29/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch Damaged…Again
3/21/22 How Insufficiently Mitigated Upstream Development Imposes Taxation without Representation on Downstream Residents
3/31/20 City Completes Repairs on Tree Lane Bridge, But Concerns Remain
2/29/20 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch: Before and After Repairs
12/2/19 Tree Lane Bridge vs. Power of Moving Water
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/3/24
2623 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Stalling
11/2/24 – Numerous academic studies have found an increase in the number of storms with decreasing forward speeds, i.e., tropical cyclone stalling, when comparing recent decades with earlier periods.
Meteorologists call the distance that tropical cyclones travel in a given amount of time “tropical cyclone translation speed” or TCTS.
They have also found that TCTS is a key factor in determining the damage a tropical cyclone can cause to a community from rainfall, exposure to high winds, flooding and storm surge. That damage totals more than a trillion dollars in the last 40 years with death tolls in the thousands.
There is broad academic agreement on the increase in the number of slow-moving or stalling storms. And they identify the central Gulf Coast as one of the hot spots.
Some studies have also found a correlation between stalling storms and rapid intensification near coastlines, a red flag for emergency managers.
Rise in Economic Devastation and Fatalities
Marybeth Melcher of Western Michigan University published “Tropical Cyclone Translation Speeds in the Northern Atlantic Ocean.” She found statistically significant trends indicating an increase in the duration of cyclones (slowing of forward motion) over forty-years.
She says that regions experiencing tropical cyclones “will experience greater exposure to some of the most devastating aspects of tropical cyclones such as extreme rainfall, wind speeds, and flooding. Increased exposure to these elements could and will likely translate to a rise in both economic devastation and fatalities.”
Slowdown Found to Be Global
In a 2018 study called “A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed” published in Nature, James P. Kossin found that TCTS has decreased globally by 10% from 1949–2016. That includes a:
Remember, the more time a storm lingers over any given area, the higher the rainfall accumulations.
Hurricane Harvey a Notable Example
Kossin also notes that “unprecedented rainfall totals associated with the ‘stall’ of Hurricane Harvey13,14,15 over Texas in 2017 provide a notable example of the relationship between regional rainfall amounts and tropical-cyclone translation speed.”
Kossin concluded that the “translation speed of tropical cyclones, particularly over land, is therefore highly relevant when considering potential changes in local rainfall totals.”
Recent Study Focused on Atlantic Basin
In September of 2024, Dr. Jill C. Trepanier, Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, Dr. Vincent M. Brown, Derek T. Thompson, and Dr. Barry D. Keim published “Stalling North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones” in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (© 2024 American Meteorological Society*.)
The authors found that TCTS influences rainfall accumulation, storm surge, and exposure to high winds. These effects are greatest when storms stall.
Trepanier and her colleagues provide both a definition and climatology of slow-moving or stalling TCs in the North Atlantic from 1900–2020. “A stall is defined as a tropical cyclone (TC) with a track contained in a circular area … with a radius of ≤ 200 km for 72 hours.”
The authors found that of 1,274 North Atlantic tropical cyclones, 191 or 15% met this definition. Of those, 10 stalled more than once. Hurricane Ginger in 1971 stalled the most with four separate stalls.
“Stalling TC locations are clustered in the western Caribbean, the central Gulf Coast, the Bay of Campeche, and near Florida and the Carolinas,” say the authors. “Stalling was most common in October TCs (17.3% of October total) and least common in August (8.2%).”
Their study examined two time periods, 1900-2020 and 1966-2020, and statistically tested for trends in the annual frequency of stalling storms.
The estimated annual frequency of stalls significantly increased from 1966–2020 by 1.5% per year. The cumulative frequency in the number of stalls compared to all storms also increased.
“Stalling storms have a significantly higher frequency of major hurricane status than non-stalling storms. Storms are also more likely to stall near the coast (≤ 200 km). Approximately 40% (n=77) of the stalling TCs experienced a period of rapid intensification, and five did so within 200 km of a coastal zone.”
The authors believe their findings will help emergency managers better prepare for the future. Speaking of that…
Stay Alert
Remember that hurricane season isn’t over until the end of November. The National Hurricane center shows three areas of activity in the Atlantic. They’re giving the closest one in the southwestern Caribbean an 80% chance of formation in the next seven days.
Don’t let your guard down yet.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/2/24
2622 Days since Hurricane Harvey
*Extensive quotes from abstract reproduced with permission of copyright holder.
Rain in Spain and Sad, Sorry State of Climate-Change Speculation
10/31/24 – An extreme rainfall event near Valencia in southern Spain on Tuesday this week fueled a spate of hasty climate-change stories. But was that the cause of the flooding?
A year’s worth of rain fell in a day. The area has an average annual rainfall of 17.87 inches. October is their rainiest month with an average 2.91 inches. But according to Fox News, they got:
Harvey Comparison
That’s pretty stout, even by Houston standards, which gets triple the average annual rainfall of Valencia’s mediterranean climate.
In fact, had that rain fallen in the Lake Houston Area during those same time periods, NOAA would have classified it between a 500- and a 1000-year storm on the Atlas 14 scale. See below.
So, you can imagine the impact of that much rain in an area built to engineering standards that anticipate far less.
The death toll has climbed steadily throughout the day as search-and-rescue efforts uncover more fatalities. By 5 PM Houston time, the count had climbed to 158, but dozens still remain missing.
To put that into perspective, Harris County reported 36 deaths from Hurricane Harvey. And Harvey dropped three times the rain, but spread out over four days (August 25-29, 2017).
The major factor contributing to the different death tolls: Valencia is mountainous, and Houston is flat. The steeper geography accelerated the speed of floodwaters that carried away vehicles, bridges and even whole buildings.
Reporting is predictably focused on the gore. As the old saying in the news business goes, “If it bleeds, it leads.”
Climate-Change Hysteria
But there’s another predictable subtext to the stories: climate change. Several factors fuel the climate-change thread:
Of several dozen stories from major news organizations that I reviewed for this post, only one (Fox News) refrained from climate-change speculation. It focused mainly on the rainfall amounts. Below is a rundown on several others.
Al Jezeera
Al Jazeera claimed, “Scientists warn that extreme weather such as heatwaves and storms is becoming more intense as a result of climate change.”
New York Times
The New York Times said, “Estimating the influence of climate change on any single flood event requires further analysis, but scientists have said that global warming is making storms in many regions more intense. Warmer air holds, and releases, more water.”
“The Mediterranean is also getting hotter, hitting its highest ever recorded temperature in August.” [Emphasis added.]
However, the Times forgot to mention that when this event occurred, the waters near Valencia were only about 1C above normal.
Then the Times went on to disclaim what they just implied. “Scientists convened by the United Nations have found no consistent trend in the way global warming is affecting extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean region…”
Guardian
The Guardian said, “In recent years, scientists have warned that the waters of the Mediterranean are rapidly warming, climbing as much as 5C above normal.”
What was it when the event occurred, Guardian? And if the relationhip is so strong, why didn’t the rainfall happen when the sea-surface temps were higher?
Reuters
Reuters said, “While experts say it will take time to analyze all the data to determine if this particular [event] was caused by climate change, most agree that an increase in temperature of the Mediterranean and warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions contribute to producing more frequent extreme episodes.” What is the increase, Reuters?
Basically, they’re saying, “The Spanish rains may not be related to climate change, but they could be…if you don’t look at recent data.”
CNN
CNN said, “Figuring out the precise role climate change played in Spain’s devastating floods will require further analysis, but scientists are clear that global warming, driven by fossil fuel pollution, makes these types of extreme rainfall events more likely and more intense.”
It reads like boilerplate.
The Independent
But some publications were more apocalyptic than others. The Independent took the prize in that department. “Climate crisis ‘worsened all 10 deadliest weather events,” the publication trumpeted.
The Independent claims “The deadliest weather events since 2004 caused more than 570,000 deaths and the ‘fingerprints’ of climate change were present, scientists say.”
We Need a White-Coat Rule for Climate Claims
If this were an advertisement as opposed to a news story, it would probably be illegal in the U.S. I remember a time when television commercials trumpeted equally unsubstantiated claims.
It led to the passage of the “white-coat” rule by the FTC. It used to be common to dress actors up in white coats to make claims for medical products. “Four out of five doctors recommend…” They were implying that a scientific study actually existed that said 80% of doctors recommended something. But what was the sample size? Five? Which five? And which four?
CBS Cites Source, Then Pulls Story
The publications above rarely cited the name of a scientist. And I only found one news source that actually cited a scientific study. That was CBS, which has since taken their story down. Turns out, their story referred not to a study, but the transcript of a UN press conference about “climate crunch time.” No actual study was linked to the UN press conference story.
Reporting Fuels Skepticism
Climate change may be real. But the reporting around it sure makes me skeptical. If there’s substance to these claims, why such vague boilerplate? Why do so few cite sources, studies and professional credentials?
Last year, I published a story called “Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News.” It reviewed an Associated Press story about a hurricane that struck Maine in 2023. It created 1-2 feet of storm surge and dropped 1-4 inches of rain. But this was a climate change disaster according to AP.
It turned out that the Rockefeller Foundation paid AP to hire 20 climate-change reporters to “infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news.”
The Rockefeller Foundation admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
We need a white-coat rule for climate claims. No quoting unnamed, uncounted “scientists”! And if they actually exist, give us their credentials. Provide links to their studies in peer-reviewed journals.
We need more facts. Not more fuel for climate hysteria.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/31/24
2620 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.