4/3/2025 – Colorado State University (CSU) researchers issued their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season today for the Atlantic basin. Forecasters expect the season to be above average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The 30-year average is for 14.4 for named storms, 7.2 for hurricanes, and 3.2 for major hurricanes.
Landfall Location Probabilities and Other Predictions
Researchers at CSU also predicted the probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall:
Anywhere along the U.S. coastline
Along the East Coast, including the Florida Panhandle
Anywhere along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Tx.
They predict a:
51% chance for any coast (up from a 140-year average of 43%)
26% chance for the East Coast (up from a 140-year average of 21%)
33% chance for the Gulf Coast (up from a 140 year average of 27%)
They also believe Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2025 will be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages.
Value of Long-Range Forecasts
People frequently ask CSU researchers what the value is of such long-range forecasts? Aside from people’s curiosity, they point out that it is possible to make seasonal forecasts with greater accuracy than climatology.
The models CSU uses sometimes fail, but their “hindcasts” show that their predictions correlate highly with actual storm activity. In the last 10 years, using “correlation” as a skill metric, CSU’s April forecasts have a .59 coefficient of correlation.
A correlation coefficient of 0.59 indicates a moderate to strong positive relationship between two variables.
In general, statisticians consider:
0.1 to 0.3: Weak
0.3 to 0.5: Moderate
0.5 to 0.7: Moderate to strong
0.7 to 1.0: Strong
CSU’s June forecasts have a .69 coefficient of correlation and their August forecasts rate a .84.
So, statistically speaking, they are very successful. And that’s why they are so well respected in the industry.
Chances of Texans Getting Hit
By the way, they believe that Texas residents have a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a major hurricane landfall this season. Those chances increase to 44% for a hurricane and 70% for a named storm.
CSU looks at multiple models as well as many analog factors, such as sea surface temperatures, global winds, La Niña, El Niño, and more. Budding meteorologists can review their thinking by reading the full 41-page report here.
It’s never too early to start preparing for hurricane season. A friend contacted me today about portable electrical power packs he just purchased. He’s also buying solar panels to recharge them. The memory of power outages during Beryl still has him smarting.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/CSU-2025-Vs-Climatology-e1743720707795.png?fit=1100%2C814&ssl=18141100adminadmin2025-04-03 17:57:202025-04-03 17:57:21CSU Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season
4/2/2025 – Despite massive funding shortfalls associated with the 2018 Flood Bond that have become the talk of Commissioner’s Court, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) still claims no projects will be cancelled – even after it cancelled several. See the screen capture below taken this afternoon.
That page has been up since at least 2022. An oversight? The County has known for years that it didn’t have enough money to complete bond projects. But instead of fessing up, they prioritized projects in Rodney Ellis’ precinct and delayed the day of reckoning…until they ran out of money for, you guessed it, Ellis’ projects.
HCFCD also cleverly called cancelled projects “completed”…because it decided not to pursue them anymore. Welcome to a world of linguistic legerdemain.
Is it intentional? You be the judge. Clearly, the pretense has persisted for years.
A History of Warnings and Missteps
2021
On 3/9/2021, David Berry, then the County’s Budget Management Director, asserted in a Commissioners’ Court meeting that the County had a shortfall of approximately $900 million to $1.35 billion needed to complete projects in the Flood Bond.
In December that year, Berry, by then the County Administrator, proposed eliminating partner funding as a factor in prioritizing bond projects. Said another way, partners who made projects possible would not see projects accelerated.
Only one problem: we expected partners to fund 43% of all flood bond projects. Basically, Berry eliminated the main incentive for MUDs and municipalities to bring money to the table.
But it pushed so-called “equity” projects to the front of the line.
2022
HCFCD updated its Equity Prioritization Framework, a controversial policy for ranking potential flood mitigation projects. It excluded flood damage from the ranking of projects. Instead, the policy gave preference to socially vulnerable areas – as defined by the CDC –regardless of flood damage.
Only a portion of potential funding partners have similar priorities. This further limited partner-funding potential.
2023
In June 2023, while speaking to a public meeting of the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Scott Elmer, the Flood Control District’s Chief Partnership and Programs Officer, predicted that some projects in the 2018 flood bond likely would not get done because of a funding gap.
In July 2023, Harris County put 37 of 93 subdivision drainage projects associated with the 2018 Flood Bond “on hold” because it lacked funding, often from shortfalls in expected partner contributions.
In December 2023, Jesal Shah PE, the Chief Project Delivery Officer for HCFCD, discussed the impact of inflation on the bond program with the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force. He said he was re-evaluating all bond projects in an attempt to “minimize” changes.
2024
HCFCD stopped listing active construction projects on its website. The frequency of flood bond updates fell from monthly to annually. Even county commissioners were flying blind.
The July 2024 flood-bond update alluded to 33 projects that had “uncertainty about whether current funding levels are sufficient to take the associated projects through construction.”
2025
On 2/6/25, fireworks erupted in Harris County Commissioners Court today over the 2018 Flood Bond and Subdivision Drainage shortfalls. It was a rare display of bi-partisan outrage. All four commissioners and the county judge made it clear that the County didn’t have enough money to deliver flood-mitigation projects promised in the bond. Commissioners used words like, “abysmal failure,” “major crisis,” and “utter dismay.”
At the 2/27/25 Commissioners Court meeting, Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis admitted, “I know there’s not enough money to do all the projects we talked about and everybody else knows it. I’m just crazy enough to say it in public.”
And in their 3/27/25 meeting, Harris County Commissioners wrestled for more than an hour with a massive, $100-million budget shortfall for subdivision drainage improvements.
Why Claim No Projects Will Be Cancelled?
Despite all that, HCFCD still – to this day – makes the “no-cancellation” claim on its website. I believe they’re trying to postpone a day of reckoning with verbal trickery.
That sounds a lot like cancellation to me. The choice of words indicates a desperate desire to conceal a truth. It’s Orwellian “doublespeak” at its finest!
Many more projects await that same fate. Unless you remain alert!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/25
2773 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-Ellis-in-CC.jpg?fit=1100%2C633&ssl=16331100adminadmin2025-04-02 21:24:512025-04-02 21:41:41Despite Funding Shortfalls, HCFCD Still Claims No Projects Will Be Cancelled
4/1/25 – In their 3/27/25 meeting, Harris County Commissioners wrestled for more than an hour with a massive, $100 million drainage funding shortfall. But $100 million may not come close to solving drainage problems in the county’s subdivisions.
Also very worrying, Commissioners have had a hard time getting data that will tell them exactly where they stand financially and let them prioritize remaining projects.
As a result, Commissioners ordered the Flood Control District and Engineering Department to return to Commissioners Court on May 8, 2025 with detailed lists of projects and their Equity Prioritization Index Scores.
Insiders at the County Courthouse say it would be too politically explosive to cancel any projects promised to voters in the 2018 Flood Bond. So, they are likely to just put projects in more affluent areas on indefinite hold, exposing them to higher flood risk for years.
Another Rambling, Disjointed Debate
Emotions got heated during the hour-long discussion as each commissioner made a case for why projects in his/her precinct should not be cut.
Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey P.E. talked about the larger percentage of unincorporated Harris County he must support compared to other precincts. He also pointed out that he already used $100 million from his own budget to push through needed subdivision drainage projects.
And Ramsey complained about problems with the equity formula used by Flood Control and Engineering to prioritize projects. Specifically, he mentioned Barrett Station, a low-income area in Precinct 3 that was deprived of funding.
Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis and Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia focused on “historical discrimination,” the County’s Equity Prioritization Index, and the highly populated areas they serve compared to outlying areas.
Precinct 4 Commissioner Leslie Briones literally talked about “getting hosed.” Her precinct received far less funding than others.
The discussion had all the charm of wolves crowding around a campfire, baring their teeth to see who will get the last scraps of meat.
Data Disaster Also At Core of Discussion
A shortage of reliable, consolidated data about subdivision drainage projects has frustrated commissioners as they seek to debate the priority of projects.
One of the motions considered during the debate on Item 28 last Thursday was integrating the county’s various financial systems. Currently, data about these projects exists on at least three different software platforms according to another county insider.
Subdivision Drainage Projects a Political Football
Voters approved a group of subdivision drainage projects totaling a little more than $425 million as part of the 2018 Flood Bond. Out of that total, the county designated $111 million in local matching funds to attract $315 million in partner funding from local municipalities.
However, over time the Subdivision Drainage Improvement costs escalated to an estimated $832 million due to inflation and the addition of projects. At the same time, not all the partnership funds materialized as expected.
So the county created a Flood Resilience Trust with surplus Harris County Toll Road (HCTRA) funds. The County also reallocated some funds from the 2015 Road Bond.
Because using Road Bond and HCTRA funding required link to transportation, at some point, Commissioners moved subdivision drainage projects from Flood Control to Engineering.
But now, some of the projects are moving back to Flood Control, because Flood Control may be able to cancel some of its projects, freeing up some money on that side of the fence. Can you say “Shell Game”?
The County Administrator’s Office compiled this 11-page outline showing how projects were moved, added, deleted or had their funding sources change over time and why. Reading it will also help you understand why Commissioners are demanding to know how much money they have to work with.
No commissioner wants to find a pet project at the end of the line when the money runs out.
Motions Approved
After an hour of discussion, Commissioners voted on and approved four motions designed to give them greater insight into where each of the subdivision drainage projects stands. In summary, the motions direct:
All relevant departments to fill the previously identified funding gap of approximately $99 million for Subdivision Drainage projects out of a group of 57 projects (identified in 2023) with a Prioritization Framework rating of 7.4 or higher using:
$50,000,000 from the Flood Control District of 2018 Flood Bond Program funds originally allocated as matching funds for the home buyout program that are no longer needed;
$30,000,000 from the Flood Control District of 2018 Flood Bond Program funds originally allocated for major maintenance projects that have alternative funding sources identified;
$19,000,000 from interest earned on METRO fund cash balance; and
$14,200,000 of Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act (GOMESA) grant funds for projects that meet the eligible use requirements.
The County Administrator to work with all relevant departments to develop any longer-term options and recommendations that may be needed regarding the funding and management of the 2018 Flood Bond Program and the Subdivision Drainage Program. Target date: May 8, 2025.
All relevant departments to develop a standard reporting framework for the Subdivision Drainage Program and the 2018 Flood Bond Program to ensure Commissioners Court can easily see at a minimum:
Status of each project
Expected time to completion
How cost has changed over time
Whether there was a change in scope
Sources of funding
The County Administrator and Universal Services to improve the county’s electronic financial reporting by consolidating several software systems into one.
Here is an AI-based transcript of the discussion from a private service that I subscribe to. Warning: it has 98% accuracy, higher than county’s transcript which sometimes omits whole sections of the dialog. If something sounds off, check it against the video.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/1/25
2772 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/20250401-Commissioners-Court-3.27.25.jpg?fit=1100%2C617&ssl=16171100adminadmin2025-04-01 19:51:262025-06-08 18:52:35Harris County Commissioners Wrestle with $100 Million Drainage Funding Shortfall
CSU Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season
4/3/2025 – Colorado State University (CSU) researchers issued their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season today for the Atlantic basin. Forecasters expect the season to be above average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The 30-year average is for 14.4 for named storms, 7.2 for hurricanes, and 3.2 for major hurricanes.
Landfall Location Probabilities and Other Predictions
Researchers at CSU also predicted the probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall:
They predict a:
They also believe Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2025 will be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages.
Value of Long-Range Forecasts
People frequently ask CSU researchers what the value is of such long-range forecasts? Aside from people’s curiosity, they point out that it is possible to make seasonal forecasts with greater accuracy than climatology.
Accuracy of Long-Range Predictions
The models CSU uses sometimes fail, but their “hindcasts” show that their predictions correlate highly with actual storm activity. In the last 10 years, using “correlation” as a skill metric, CSU’s April forecasts have a .59 coefficient of correlation.
A correlation coefficient of 0.59 indicates a moderate to strong positive relationship between two variables.
In general, statisticians consider:
CSU’s June forecasts have a .69 coefficient of correlation and their August forecasts rate a .84.
So, statistically speaking, they are very successful. And that’s why they are so well respected in the industry.
Chances of Texans Getting Hit
By the way, they believe that Texas residents have a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a major hurricane landfall this season. Those chances increase to 44% for a hurricane and 70% for a named storm.
CSU looks at multiple models as well as many analog factors, such as sea surface temperatures, global winds, La Niña, El Niño, and more. Budding meteorologists can review their thinking by reading the full 41-page report here.
It’s never too early to start preparing for hurricane season. A friend contacted me today about portable electrical power packs he just purchased. He’s also buying solar panels to recharge them. The memory of power outages during Beryl still has him smarting.
To help get ready for hurricane season, see the Preparedness Tab on my Links Page.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2025
2774 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Despite Funding Shortfalls, HCFCD Still Claims No Projects Will Be Cancelled
4/2/2025 – Despite massive funding shortfalls associated with the 2018 Flood Bond that have become the talk of Commissioner’s Court, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) still claims no projects will be cancelled – even after it cancelled several. See the screen capture below taken this afternoon.
That page has been up since at least 2022. An oversight? The County has known for years that it didn’t have enough money to complete bond projects. But instead of fessing up, they prioritized projects in Rodney Ellis’ precinct and delayed the day of reckoning…until they ran out of money for, you guessed it, Ellis’ projects.
HCFCD also cleverly called cancelled projects “completed”…because it decided not to pursue them anymore. Welcome to a world of linguistic legerdemain.
Is it intentional? You be the judge. Clearly, the pretense has persisted for years.
A History of Warnings and Missteps
2021
On 3/9/2021, David Berry, then the County’s Budget Management Director, asserted in a Commissioners’ Court meeting that the County had a shortfall of approximately $900 million to $1.35 billion needed to complete projects in the Flood Bond.
In December that year, Berry, by then the County Administrator, proposed eliminating partner funding as a factor in prioritizing bond projects. Said another way, partners who made projects possible would not see projects accelerated.
Only one problem: we expected partners to fund 43% of all flood bond projects. Basically, Berry eliminated the main incentive for MUDs and municipalities to bring money to the table.
But it pushed so-called “equity” projects to the front of the line.
2022
HCFCD updated its Equity Prioritization Framework, a controversial policy for ranking potential flood mitigation projects. It excluded flood damage from the ranking of projects. Instead, the policy gave preference to socially vulnerable areas – as defined by the CDC –regardless of flood damage.
Only a portion of potential funding partners have similar priorities. This further limited partner-funding potential.
2023
In June 2023, while speaking to a public meeting of the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Scott Elmer, the Flood Control District’s Chief Partnership and Programs Officer, predicted that some projects in the 2018 flood bond likely would not get done because of a funding gap.
In July 2023, Harris County put 37 of 93 subdivision drainage projects associated with the 2018 Flood Bond “on hold” because it lacked funding, often from shortfalls in expected partner contributions.
In December 2023, Jesal Shah PE, the Chief Project Delivery Officer for HCFCD, discussed the impact of inflation on the bond program with the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force. He said he was re-evaluating all bond projects in an attempt to “minimize” changes.
2024
HCFCD stopped listing active construction projects on its website. The frequency of flood bond updates fell from monthly to annually. Even county commissioners were flying blind.
The July 2024 flood-bond update alluded to 33 projects that had “uncertainty about whether current funding levels are sufficient to take the associated projects through construction.”
2025
On 2/6/25, fireworks erupted in Harris County Commissioners Court today over the 2018 Flood Bond and Subdivision Drainage shortfalls. It was a rare display of bi-partisan outrage. All four commissioners and the county judge made it clear that the County didn’t have enough money to deliver flood-mitigation projects promised in the bond. Commissioners used words like, “abysmal failure,” “major crisis,” and “utter dismay.”
At the 2/27/25 Commissioners Court meeting, Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis admitted, “I know there’s not enough money to do all the projects we talked about and everybody else knows it. I’m just crazy enough to say it in public.”
And in their 3/27/25 meeting, Harris County Commissioners wrestled for more than an hour with a massive, $100-million budget shortfall for subdivision drainage improvements.
Why Claim No Projects Will Be Cancelled?
Despite all that, HCFCD still – to this day – makes the “no-cancellation” claim on its website. I believe they’re trying to postpone a day of reckoning with verbal trickery.
HCFCD’s July 2024 flood-bond update said that it marked several projects “complete” – because they saw no benefit in completing them!
That sounds a lot like cancellation to me. The choice of words indicates a desperate desire to conceal a truth. It’s Orwellian “doublespeak” at its finest!
Many more projects await that same fate. Unless you remain alert!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/25
2773 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Harris County Commissioners Wrestle with $100 Million Drainage Funding Shortfall
4/1/25 – In their 3/27/25 meeting, Harris County Commissioners wrestled for more than an hour with a massive, $100 million drainage funding shortfall. But $100 million may not come close to solving drainage problems in the county’s subdivisions.
Also very worrying, Commissioners have had a hard time getting data that will tell them exactly where they stand financially and let them prioritize remaining projects.
As a result, Commissioners ordered the Flood Control District and Engineering Department to return to Commissioners Court on May 8, 2025 with detailed lists of projects and their Equity Prioritization Index Scores.
Insiders at the County Courthouse say it would be too politically explosive to cancel any projects promised to voters in the 2018 Flood Bond. So, they are likely to just put projects in more affluent areas on indefinite hold, exposing them to higher flood risk for years.
Another Rambling, Disjointed Debate
Emotions got heated during the hour-long discussion as each commissioner made a case for why projects in his/her precinct should not be cut.
Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey P.E. talked about the larger percentage of unincorporated Harris County he must support compared to other precincts. He also pointed out that he already used $100 million from his own budget to push through needed subdivision drainage projects.
And Ramsey complained about problems with the equity formula used by Flood Control and Engineering to prioritize projects. Specifically, he mentioned Barrett Station, a low-income area in Precinct 3 that was deprived of funding.
Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis and Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia focused on “historical discrimination,” the County’s Equity Prioritization Index, and the highly populated areas they serve compared to outlying areas.
Precinct 4 Commissioner Leslie Briones literally talked about “getting hosed.” Her precinct received far less funding than others.
The discussion had all the charm of wolves crowding around a campfire, baring their teeth to see who will get the last scraps of meat.
Data Disaster Also At Core of Discussion
A shortage of reliable, consolidated data about subdivision drainage projects has frustrated commissioners as they seek to debate the priority of projects.
One of the motions considered during the debate on Item 28 last Thursday was integrating the county’s various financial systems. Currently, data about these projects exists on at least three different software platforms according to another county insider.
Subdivision Drainage Projects a Political Football
Voters approved a group of subdivision drainage projects totaling a little more than $425 million as part of the 2018 Flood Bond. Out of that total, the county designated $111 million in local matching funds to attract $315 million in partner funding from local municipalities.
However, over time the Subdivision Drainage Improvement costs escalated to an estimated $832 million due to inflation and the addition of projects. At the same time, not all the partnership funds materialized as expected.
So the county created a Flood Resilience Trust with surplus Harris County Toll Road (HCTRA) funds. The County also reallocated some funds from the 2015 Road Bond.
Because using Road Bond and HCTRA funding required link to transportation, at some point, Commissioners moved subdivision drainage projects from Flood Control to Engineering.
But now, some of the projects are moving back to Flood Control, because Flood Control may be able to cancel some of its projects, freeing up some money on that side of the fence. Can you say “Shell Game”?
The County Administrator’s Office compiled this 11-page outline showing how projects were moved, added, deleted or had their funding sources change over time and why. Reading it will also help you understand why Commissioners are demanding to know how much money they have to work with.
No commissioner wants to find a pet project at the end of the line when the money runs out.
Motions Approved
After an hour of discussion, Commissioners voted on and approved four motions designed to give them greater insight into where each of the subdivision drainage projects stands. In summary, the motions direct:
For More Information
For more information about Item 28 on the March 27, 2025 Commissioners Court Agenda, you can view the video. Click on Departments 2 or 2 and scroll forward to approximately 6:01 of the video. The discussion lasts an hour. The clock superimposed over the frame (as opposed to the scroll bar), will read 6:31 PM.
Here is an AI-based transcript of the discussion from a private service that I subscribe to. Warning: it has 98% accuracy, higher than county’s transcript which sometimes omits whole sections of the dialog. If something sounds off, check it against the video.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/1/25
2772 Days since Hurricane Harvey