10/10/24 – Buried within a Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) eight-page status report submitted to Commissioners Court last Tuesday is a potential conflict that could torpedo Taylor Gully conveyance improvements.
Taylor Gully is the lone Kingwood project that HCFCD submitted to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Texas General Land Office for Community Development Block Grant funding. The list of disaster relief and hazard mitigation projects totals $863 million.
Taylor Gully during May 7, 2019 flood
HUD Funds via Texas GLO
The HUD/GLO money focuses on projects stemming from Hurricane Harvey that are designed to mitigate future disasters and flooding.
The money is in two buckets: disaster relief ($322 million) and mitigation ($541 million).
DR vs MIT, Above-the-Line vs Below-
Of the 39 projects listed in the status report, Northeast Harris County has three. But the three actually relate to only one project – Taylor Gully Drainage Improvements in Kingwood.
The main Taylor Gully project falls into the Disaster Mitigation (MIT) category.
Two related stormwater detention basins in Woodridge Village at the head of Taylor Gully fall into the disaster relief (DR) category.
A note on page six of the HCFCD status report explains the relationship between the three items. Basically, Flood Control needs the two detention basins to make the Taylor Gully improvements work within the available space.
Green basin was started under an E&R contract then paused after HUD funding application. A second basin would need to be built from scratch somewhere within the area designated as G-503-06-00.Taylor Gully is blue line labeled G103-80-03.1.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The Taylor Gully project is above the funding line. That means there’s room for it in the budget. But…
Potential Conflict
The two detention basins, which are prerequisites, fall below the funding line. That means there is no budget for them unless another above-the-funding-line project falls out of contention or comes in much lower than expected. (Editorial comment: Good luck with that!)
Taylor Gully Channel Conveyance Improvements (G103-80-03.1-E002), Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 1 (G503-06-00-E003), and Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 2 (G503-06-00-E004): Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 1 (G503-06-00-E003) and Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 2 (G503-06-00-E004) were originally below the funding line for CDBG-DR. The original engineering analysis indicated that only Woodbridge Basin Compartment 1 was needed for the Taylor Gully mitigation. As the analysis has progressed, it indicates that Compartment 2 (or a portion of it) may also be needed. Due to other projects potentially reducing in budget from the initial estimates, there may be funding available to include the Woodbridge basin in the Taylor Gully project. [Color added for emphasis.] (Bond ID: F-14; Precinct 3).
It’s like saying, “We’ll recommend the highway expansion. But we may not approve the concrete for it.”
Deadlines Looming
To make matters worse, the two detention basins are in the Disaster Relief category. That had a tight deadline – mid 2026. However, the GLO and HUD say that they are granting extensions on a case-by-case basis. HCFCD says they are asking for one. And these two particular projects seem to be in the pipeline under review.
The Taylor Gully conveyance improvements will cost an estimated $25.5 million. The two Woodridge detention basins together will cost an estimated $30.8 million.
The GLO says it is working closely with Harris County Flood Control to process applications and resolve issues as quickly as they arise.
However, unless HUD and the GLO grant a deadline extension, the two basins would need to be completed and all the billing submitted for payment by roughly mid-2026. That would be ambitious, even if they started today.
Worse, if the issue is “available funding,” they’ll need to finalize 14 other projects first to see how much money they have left over before the detention basins can even start.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Taylor-Gully-at-Peak-e1728600738227.jpg?fit=1100%2C327&ssl=13271100adminadmin2024-10-10 18:22:562024-10-11 13:42:23Potential Funding Problem for Taylor Gully Mitigation Project
10/9/24 at 5 PM – Tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Milton can already be felt in the Tampa Bay Area. The storm is moving toward Tampa at 17 MPH. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening.
Milton’s location at 4:46 PM CDT. Eye has become obscured by clouds.Milton covers the entire Florida Peninsula.
According to the National Hurricane Center, it will then move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.
120 MPH Cat 3 Storm at Present
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 MPH with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening. And it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton should weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles. Central pressure is 948 mb.
“Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast tonight and early Thursday,” warns NHC.
Add to that the risk of strong tornadoes. Warnings are already up.
9-13 Feet of Surge Predicted Just South of Tampa
Even though meteorologists have tightened their estimates, storm surge is still a significant threat. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
NHC predicts the eye will pass just south of Tampa and has scaled back surge predictions there too 6-9 feet, considerably lower than the 10-15 feet predicted yesterday.
However, slightly south, surge predictions still range from 9-13 feet down to Boca Grande, and 8-12 feet down to Bonita Beach.
NHC says, “There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm.”
“Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall.”
Up to 18 Inches of Rainfall
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches will be common. Localized totals up to 18 inches are expected across the central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.
Life-Threatening Flood Potential
This heavy rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat.
About the only thing left to do at this point is pray for a speedy recovery. But based on Houston’s experience with Hurricane Harvey, I can promise you that recoveries from storms of this magnitude are anything but speedy.
That’s the main reason why I continue to post “Days since Harvey” with all of my posts. I want people to understand how long recovery and mitigation take.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/09/24based on information from the NHC and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
2598 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20242831911_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000-1.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=110001000adminadmin2024-10-09 17:08:052024-10-09 17:08:07Milton To Make Landfall Near Tampa in Hours
10/8/24 4 PM – As if the pictures of Helene’s aftermath weren’t enough, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
Milton weakened to a Category 4 overnight during an eye wall replacement cycle and is now regaining strength as it expands into a larger storm. At 4 PM, it had a 10-mile-wide eye and was turning northeast, moving at 9 MPH.
NHC also reported that Milton regained Cat 5 strength and had sustained winds of 165 MPH.
Milton was north of the Yucatan at 3PM CDT.
Typically, Cat 5 storms destroy a high percentage of framed homes, with total roof failure and wall collapse. NHC warns that “fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will likely last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
Ironically, much of the area that Milton will hit was already heavily damaged by Helene two weeks ago. Cleanup from Helene is not yet complete. The high winds could create a blizzard of debris and airborne projectiles.
Authorities are urging residents in evacuation zones to get out today as there may not be enough time if they wait until tomorrow.
Highly Populated Area in Crosshairs
The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track currently puts the Tampa Bay Area in the crosshairs with landfall tomorrow.
However, NHC cautions that, this far in advance, their forecasts typically contain 60-70 miles of error.
The outer winds could reach the Florida coast tomorrow. And the hurricane should make landfall early Thursday, crossing the Florida Peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday.
NHC says that preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. By tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate and it may not be safe to work outside.
Wind Field, Storm Surge Will Affect Much of Florida
NHC also says that “Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”
At 1 PM, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.
Storm surge in the Tampa area could reach 15 feet above dry ground. Surge warnings affect the entire western coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. Note below that NHC has also posted surge warnings for most of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia and South Carolina.
Heavy Rains and Flooding
NHC predicts 5 to 12 inches of rainfall, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across central to northern Florida through Thursday.
This rainfall will bring the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding, according to NHC.
2597 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 13 since Helene
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/152937_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-1-1.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-10-08 16:23:382024-10-08 16:25:40Milton Could Be One of Most Destructive Hurricanes On Record
Potential Funding Problem for Taylor Gully Mitigation Project
10/10/24 – Buried within a Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) eight-page status report submitted to Commissioners Court last Tuesday is a potential conflict that could torpedo Taylor Gully conveyance improvements.
Taylor Gully is the lone Kingwood project that HCFCD submitted to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Texas General Land Office for Community Development Block Grant funding. The list of disaster relief and hazard mitigation projects totals $863 million.
HUD Funds via Texas GLO
The HUD/GLO money focuses on projects stemming from Hurricane Harvey that are designed to mitigate future disasters and flooding.
The money is in two buckets: disaster relief ($322 million) and mitigation ($541 million).
DR vs MIT, Above-the-Line vs Below-
Of the 39 projects listed in the status report, Northeast Harris County has three. But the three actually relate to only one project – Taylor Gully Drainage Improvements in Kingwood.
A note on page six of the HCFCD status report explains the relationship between the three items. Basically, Flood Control needs the two detention basins to make the Taylor Gully improvements work within the available space.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The Taylor Gully project is above the funding line. That means there’s room for it in the budget. But…
Potential Conflict
The two detention basins, which are prerequisites, fall below the funding line. That means there is no budget for them unless another above-the-funding-line project falls out of contention or comes in much lower than expected. (Editorial comment: Good luck with that!)
See the note on page six reprinted below.
Taylor Gully Channel Conveyance Improvements (G103-80-03.1-E002), Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 1 (G503-06-00-E003), and Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 2 (G503-06-00-E004): Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 1 (G503-06-00-E003) and Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 2 (G503-06-00-E004) were originally below the funding line for CDBG-DR. The original engineering analysis indicated that only Woodbridge Basin Compartment 1 was needed for the Taylor Gully mitigation. As the analysis has progressed, it indicates that Compartment 2 (or a portion of it) may also be needed. Due to other projects potentially reducing in budget from the initial estimates, there may be funding available to include the Woodbridge basin in the Taylor Gully project. [Color added for emphasis.] (Bond ID: F-14; Precinct 3).
Deadlines Looming
To make matters worse, the two detention basins are in the Disaster Relief category. That had a tight deadline – mid 2026. However, the GLO and HUD say that they are granting extensions on a case-by-case basis. HCFCD says they are asking for one. And these two particular projects seem to be in the pipeline under review.
The Taylor Gully conveyance improvements will cost an estimated $25.5 million. The two Woodridge detention basins together will cost an estimated $30.8 million.
The GLO says it is working closely with Harris County Flood Control to process applications and resolve issues as quickly as they arise.
However, unless HUD and the GLO grant a deadline extension, the two basins would need to be completed and all the billing submitted for payment by roughly mid-2026. That would be ambitious, even if they started today.
Worse, if the issue is “available funding,” they’ll need to finalize 14 other projects first to see how much money they have left over before the detention basins can even start.
Government Work is Never Easy
One thing I have learned since Harvey is that nothing associated with flood mitigation moves quickly. In that regard, Harris County Commissioners approved the first draft of the DR project list on 6/6/23.
In fairness, a large part of the HCFCD update deals with reasons for grant-submission and approval delays. They include:
Let’s hope they can resolve this one quickly. The fate of hundreds of homes and thousands of residents hangs in the balance.
Make sure you ask about this at the HCFCD tax meeting on October 16 before you vote.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/10/24
2599 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Milton To Make Landfall Near Tampa in Hours
10/9/24 at 5 PM – Tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Milton can already be felt in the Tampa Bay Area. The storm is moving toward Tampa at 17 MPH. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening.
According to the National Hurricane Center, it will then move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.
120 MPH Cat 3 Storm at Present
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 MPH with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening. And it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton should weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles. Central pressure is 948 mb.
“Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast tonight and early Thursday,” warns NHC.
Add to that the risk of strong tornadoes. Warnings are already up.
9-13 Feet of Surge Predicted Just South of Tampa
Even though meteorologists have tightened their estimates, storm surge is still a significant threat. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
NHC predicts the eye will pass just south of Tampa and has scaled back surge predictions there too 6-9 feet, considerably lower than the 10-15 feet predicted yesterday.
However, slightly south, surge predictions still range from 9-13 feet down to Boca Grande, and 8-12 feet down to Bonita Beach.
NHC says, “There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm.”
“Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall.”
Up to 18 Inches of Rainfall
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches will be common. Localized totals up to 18 inches are expected across the central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.
Life-Threatening Flood Potential
This heavy rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.
About the only thing left to do at this point is pray for a speedy recovery. But based on Houston’s experience with Hurricane Harvey, I can promise you that recoveries from storms of this magnitude are anything but speedy.
That’s the main reason why I continue to post “Days since Harvey” with all of my posts. I want people to understand how long recovery and mitigation take.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/09/24 based on information from the NHC and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
2598 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Milton Could Be One of Most Destructive Hurricanes On Record
10/8/24 4 PM – As if the pictures of Helene’s aftermath weren’t enough, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
Milton weakened to a Category 4 overnight during an eye wall replacement cycle and is now regaining strength as it expands into a larger storm. At 4 PM, it had a 10-mile-wide eye and was turning northeast, moving at 9 MPH.
NHC also reported that Milton regained Cat 5 strength and had sustained winds of 165 MPH.
Typically, Cat 5 storms destroy a high percentage of framed homes, with total roof failure and wall collapse. NHC warns that “fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will likely last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
Ironically, much of the area that Milton will hit was already heavily damaged by Helene two weeks ago. Cleanup from Helene is not yet complete. The high winds could create a blizzard of debris and airborne projectiles.
Authorities are urging residents in evacuation zones to get out today as there may not be enough time if they wait until tomorrow.
Highly Populated Area in Crosshairs
The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track currently puts the Tampa Bay Area in the crosshairs with landfall tomorrow.
However, NHC cautions that, this far in advance, their forecasts typically contain 60-70 miles of error.
The outer winds could reach the Florida coast tomorrow. And the hurricane should make landfall early Thursday, crossing the Florida Peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday.
NHC says that preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. By tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate and it may not be safe to work outside.
Wind Field, Storm Surge Will Affect Much of Florida
NHC also says that “Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”
At 1 PM, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.
Storm surge in the Tampa area could reach 15 feet above dry ground. Surge warnings affect the entire western coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. Note below that NHC has also posted surge warnings for most of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia and South Carolina.
Heavy Rains and Flooding
NHC predicts 5 to 12 inches of rainfall, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across central to northern Florida through Thursday.
This rainfall will bring the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding, according to NHC.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 3:30 PM, 10/8/24
2597 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 13 since Helene