10/7/24, 1 PM Update – Since posting the story below at 10 AM, Milton intensified explosively another 20 MPH and is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 MPH sustained winds and higher gusts.So, I have updated some of the statistics in the post.
Overnight, Hurricane Milton morphed from a Category 1 storm to near Category 5. This morning, Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Milton’s maximum sustained winds have already increased to 155 MPH…with higher gusts.
Miltons Position at 11:36 CDT
Category 5 Storm at 1 PM Update
155 MPH made Milton a high-end Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – just 2 MPH below the Category 5 designation. But then it exploded.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Milton is now a Category 5 hurricane. And it has nothing but light shear and very warm waters between it and the Florida coast.
According to NHC, in a Category 5 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
If Milton were a tornado, its 175 MPH winds would make it an F3 on the Fujita scale, capable of blowing apart well constructed houses, overturning trains and uprooting forests. In contrast, Hurricane Helene was a Cat 4 storm with 140 MPH.
Current Conditions and Forecast
Milton should also become a much larger hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico once it completes an eyeball replacement cycle.
At this hour, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb.
As Milton nears the Florida coast, it should weaken some as it encounters drier air and wind shear. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland.
Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph MPH. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight. Then it should turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On that track, Milton will move near the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
The northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will likely experience life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves today. The same threats should reach Florida late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
Threats
STORM SURGE:
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphics available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night.
This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.
SURF:
Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Meanwhile…Advancing Drought Back in Texas
After an abnormally wet spring and summer, we’ve had very little rain since Labor Day. As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor now classifies the Houston area as Abnormally Dry.
Milton will miss Texas. But Texas sure could use some of its rain. When it comes to rainfall, sometimes Texas feels like “beast or famine.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/7/24 at 11:30 AM
2596 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Milton.jpg?fit=1000%2C740&ssl=17401000adminadmin2024-10-07 11:52:232024-10-07 15:25:30Milton Already a Category 5
10/6/24 at 5PM – Yesterday morning, Milton wasn’t even a tropical depression. This morning, Milton was a tropical storm packing winds of about 60 MPH. By noon, Milton became a hurricane. By the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update, winds were at 85 MPH with higher gusts and “rapidly intensifying.”
NHC predicts Milton will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with minimum sustained winds of 111 MPH) on Monday. That’s because it will track through warm, deep water in an area with low wind shear.
Current Conditions
At the 4PM update, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles. Estimated central pressure was 983 mb.
Milton was tracking toward the east at 7 MPH on a track to strike the center of Florida’s west coast. It does not pose a threat to Texas. However, the Associated Press reports that some communities on Florida’s west coast are already ordering mandatory evacuations.
Forecast to Become Cat 4 or 5
According to NHC, some models are predicting Milton could become a Cat 4 (130 to 156 MPH) or Cat 5 (157 MPH or higher) in a day or two. NHC admits its estimates “still could be too low.”
Large and “Life Threatening”
NHC also predicts Milton will be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area – a scenario similar to Helene just days ago.
“There is increasing confidence,” they say, “that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of Florida’s west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.”
Tropical storm force winds should arrive in Florida by Tuesday evening.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, business or travel plans in Florida, understand that:
Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. It’s still too early to predict the exact track and intensity.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday. Storm-Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
Heavy rainfall will impact Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton. More heavy rainfall directly related to Milton will hit Florida Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding. It will also have the potential for moderate to MAJOR river flooding.
STORM SURGE: Water will rise as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as the storm tracks east. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two. They will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.
Milton will make the third major hurricane in two weeks. It was only 12 days ago that Helene raked the west coast of Florida. Reportedly, many people in affected areas have not even returned home yet.
Sufficiency of Wind-Scale as Predictor of Damage
The New York Times ran an interesting article this morning titled “The Problem with the Hurricane Category Rating.” The thrust of it was that the rating system looks only at wind, but most of the damage is done by water. And NHC says 55% of all deaths are due to flooding during and after a hurricane.
The article quotes a number of government officials, professionals and academics working on ways to fill the gaps.
That will be the subject of a future post.
In the meantime, your best bet is to bookmark the NHC site and visit it daily during hurricane season. When a hurricane threatens the mainland, NHC updates information every few hours.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/24
2595 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 12 days since Helene
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/212936_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-10-06 17:48:492024-10-06 23:16:21Milton Now a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane, NHC Says It May Go To Cat 5
10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.
At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.
Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.
Graphic from 10 AM CDT today BEFORE depression strengthened into TS Milton.NHC will update its graphics at 4 PM CDT.
Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.
As of 1:21 Houston time
Forecast
At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed.
On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.
Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.
The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.
Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.
Milton will quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials. Check the NHC site regularly for updates.
Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton. Expect heavy rainfall more directly related to the system by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season
In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.
Beryl – 160 MPH
Helene – 140 MPH
Kirk – 120 MPH
But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.
Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24
2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-10-05 13:57:592024-10-05 13:58:00Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane
Milton Already a Category 5
10/7/24, 1 PM Update – Since posting the story below at 10 AM, Milton intensified explosively another 20 MPH and is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 MPH sustained winds and higher gusts. So, I have updated some of the statistics in the post.
Overnight, Hurricane Milton morphed from a Category 1 storm to near Category 5. This morning, Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Milton’s maximum sustained winds have already increased to 155 MPH…with higher gusts.
Category 5 Storm at 1 PM Update
155 MPH made Milton a high-end Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – just 2 MPH below the Category 5 designation. But then it exploded.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Milton is now a Category 5 hurricane. And it has nothing but light shear and very warm waters between it and the Florida coast.
According to NHC, in a Category 5 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
If Milton were a tornado, its 175 MPH winds would make it an F3 on the Fujita scale, capable of blowing apart well constructed houses, overturning trains and uprooting forests. In contrast, Hurricane Helene was a Cat 4 storm with 140 MPH.
Current Conditions and Forecast
Milton should also become a much larger hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico once it completes an eyeball replacement cycle.
At this hour, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb.
As Milton nears the Florida coast, it should weaken some as it encounters drier air and wind shear. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland.
Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph MPH. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight. Then it should turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On that track, Milton will move near the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
The northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will likely experience life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves today. The same threats should reach Florida late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
Threats
STORM SURGE:
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphics available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
For an easy way to find the elevation of your home or business, see https://reduceflooding.com/2020/08/01/easy-way-to-find-the-elevation-of-a-home-and-the-slopes-around-it/.
RAINFALL:
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night.
This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and Flash Flood Risk
graphics at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND:
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.
SURF:
Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Meanwhile…Advancing Drought Back in Texas
After an abnormally wet spring and summer, we’ve had very little rain since Labor Day. As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor now classifies the Houston area as Abnormally Dry.
Milton will miss Texas. But Texas sure could use some of its rain. When it comes to rainfall, sometimes Texas feels like “beast or famine.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/7/24 at 11:30 AM
2596 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Milton Now a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane, NHC Says It May Go To Cat 5
10/6/24 at 5PM – Yesterday morning, Milton wasn’t even a tropical depression. This morning, Milton was a tropical storm packing winds of about 60 MPH. By noon, Milton became a hurricane. By the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update, winds were at 85 MPH with higher gusts and “rapidly intensifying.”
NHC predicts Milton will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with minimum sustained winds of 111 MPH) on Monday. That’s because it will track through warm, deep water in an area with low wind shear.
Current Conditions
At the 4PM update, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles. Estimated central pressure was 983 mb.
Milton was tracking toward the east at 7 MPH on a track to strike the center of Florida’s west coast. It does not pose a threat to Texas. However, the Associated Press reports that some communities on Florida’s west coast are already ordering mandatory evacuations.
Forecast to Become Cat 4 or 5
According to NHC, some models are predicting Milton could become a Cat 4 (130 to 156 MPH) or Cat 5 (157 MPH or higher) in a day or two. NHC admits its estimates “still could be too low.”
Large and “Life Threatening”
NHC also predicts Milton will be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area – a scenario similar to Helene just days ago.
“There is increasing confidence,” they say, “that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of Florida’s west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.”
Tropical storm force winds should arrive in Florida by Tuesday evening.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, business or travel plans in Florida, understand that:
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
Other Hazards
NHC also warns of:
Milton will make the third major hurricane in two weeks. It was only 12 days ago that Helene raked the west coast of Florida. Reportedly, many people in affected areas have not even returned home yet.
Sufficiency of Wind-Scale as Predictor of Damage
The New York Times ran an interesting article this morning titled “The Problem with the Hurricane Category Rating.” The thrust of it was that the rating system looks only at wind, but most of the damage is done by water. And NHC says 55% of all deaths are due to flooding during and after a hurricane.
The article quotes a number of government officials, professionals and academics working on ways to fill the gaps.
That will be the subject of a future post.
In the meantime, your best bet is to bookmark the NHC site and visit it daily during hurricane season. When a hurricane threatens the mainland, NHC updates information every few hours.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/24
2595 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 12 days since Helene
Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane
10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.
At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.
Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.
Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.
Forecast
At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed.
On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.
Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.
The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.
Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season
In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.
But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.
Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24
2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey