Combined Harris County Tax Increases 4-5x Greater than Inflation

10/1/24 – Harris County is proposing tax increases four times greater than the rate of inflation in the U.S. The combined tax increase in the last two years is almost 30% while the rate of inflation in the US for 2023 and 2024 (estimated) is 7%. When looking strictly at Houston, inflation is slightly lower – about 6%.

The tax increases proposed by the Democrat-controlled Commissioners Court will fall most heavily on the low-to-middle income homeowners who can least afford them. And it’s unclear whether more affluent homeowners will actually see any benefit from them.

How Did We Get to 30%?

Bill King published an article today detailing the components of the 30% tax increase he computed for 2023 and 2024 combined. King added increases in tax rates and appraised values to compute total tax increases.

Said King, “Officials like to talk about tax rates but ignore appraised values, which for many years have been steadily moving higher. This allows elected officials to claim that they are holding taxes steady or, in this case, mislead taxpayers that an increase is not as dramatic as it actually is.”

According to King, Harris County Appraisal District notified Commissioners Court in advance of setting the new tax rates that appraised values would increase 9.3% in 2023 and 4.48% in 2024.

King multiplied the higher tax rates for various county departments times the appraisal-value increases both last year and this. The calculations included the County budget plus three other special entities: the Hospital District, Port Authority and Flood Control District. Flood Control wants a 64.79% increase for operations and maintenance this year alone.

King meticulously documents his calculations and sources.

When added together, the taxes for the average homeowner will increase in just two years by 29.5% ($1062 → $1,379).

Bill King

That’s roughly 4 times the rate of U.S. inflation (7%) for 2 years and 5 times the rate of inflation in Houston (6%).

Said King, “The total levy for all four entities has gone from slightly under $3.1 billion in 2022 to nearly $4 billion for this year, a staggering 28.7% increase in the overall tax burden from the County in just two years.” And that doesn’t even include the money the county has siphoned from the Toll Road Authority.

King, who also studies population trends, warned that, “In the last decade, Harris County’s net domestic migration has been a negative 200,000. I suspect these massive tax increases will send more running for the exits.”

Flood-Control Operations and Maintenance

On 9/7/2024, I posted an article about deferred flood-control maintenance in Harris County. This was the basis for the proposed flood-control tax increase.

Key points:

  • We have a huge amount of drainage infrastructure requiring regular maintenance.
  • Much of the infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life (when it costs more to maintain).
  • And every year, we add more and more infrastructure requiring more maintenance.
  • But investment in maintenance has been flat over time (see graph below).
  • Maintenance investment has lagged behind capital improvement spending by as much as 9 to 1.

Unfortunately, even though this is being pitched as a maintenance tax, ballot text doesn’t limit spending to maintenance. It’s for OPERATIONS and maintenance.

Harris County Flood Control District Proposition A says only, “APPROVING THE AD VALOREM TAX RATE OF $0.04897 PER $100 VALUATION IN HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT FOR THE CURRENT YEAR, A RATE THAT IS $0.01581 HIGHER PER $100 VALUATION THAN THE VOTER APPROVAL TAX RATE OF HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT, FOR THE PURPOSE OF OPERATING AND MAINTAINING THE DISTRICT’S FLOOD RISK REDUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE. LAST YEAR, THE AD VALOREM TAX RATE IN HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT WAS $0.03105 PER $100 VALUATION.”

Keep in mind that the 57% increase between $0.04897 and $0.03105 will be applied to higher appraised values bringing the total increase up to 64.79% increase calculated by King.

But just as troubling is the inclusion of operations and the absence of any detail about how, when, where or on what the money will be spent.

This has all the earmarks of a slush fund, in my opinion.

Harris County’s Commissioners have seen fit to move money around before and load up staff with patronage workers. Will they do it again?

Will Democrats use the money to maintain long-neglected ditches in Precinct 3, which reportedly has the highest number of maintenance requests in the county? Or, as with the flood bond, will they spend the money in their constituents’ neighborhoods?

Will they ignore the minimums they guaranteed to Precinct 3, as they did with the 2022 bond?

So many questions!

HCFCD is hosting a series of meetings around the county to “educate” voters about the so-called maintenance tax increase.

DateTimeVenueAddress / Link
Mon, 9/306-8 p.m.Pine Forest Elementary School19702 West Lake Houston Parkway
Humble 77346
Wed, 10/26-8 p.m.Richard & Meg Weekley Community Center8440 Greenhouse Road
Cypress 77433
Thu, 10/36-8 p.m.Martin L. Flukinger Community Center16003 Lorenzo
Channelview 77530
Sat, 10/510 a.m.-12 p.m.Acres Homes Multi-Service Center6719 W. Montgomery Road
Houston 77091
Wed, 10/96-8 p.m.George H. W. Bush Community Center6827 Cypresswood Drive
Spring 77379
Thu, 10/106-8 p.m.Bayland Community Center6400 Bissonnet Street
Houston 77074
Mon, 10/146-8 p.m.El Franco Lee Community Center9500 Hall Road
Houston 77089
Wed, 10/1612-1 p.m.Virtualhttps://us02web.zoom.us/j/82523887264
Thu, 10/176:30-7:30 p.m.Virtualhttps://us02web.zoom.us/j/87924086093
Sat, 10/1910 a.m.-12 p.m.Hardy Community Center11901 W. Hardy Road
Houston 77076
Early voting begins on October 21. Make sure you get your questions answered before then.

Fool Me Twice?

I ended my 9/7/24 post with the following. I said that I could not support the HCFCD request if:

  • Maintenance is delayed here longer than anywhere else.
  • Social factors, not flood risk, determine the distribution of dollars. 
  • County leaders try to redefine the commonly accepted, dictionary meanings of terms like “equity” or “worst.”

Now that I’ve seen the ballot language, I see none of those guarantees.

As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” 

Given the language in HCFCD Prop A, I fear the Lake Houston Area will get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/1/2024

2590 Days since Hurricane Harvey

2024 Hurricane Season YTD vs Average, Projections

9/30/2024 – Most forecasters predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be a monster, based on high sea-surface temperatures, Accumulated Cyclone Energy and a developing La Niña. But so far, judging by the numbers, the season has been close to average.

I compiled the tables below through data on the National Hurricane Center archives and news reports.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary to Date

Through September 30By This Date in Average YearIn 2024
Named Storms1011
Hurricanes54
Major Hurricanes22

30-Year Average for Climate

Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

Here’s how a season typically develops.

How 2024 hurricane season stacks up against 30 year average so far.

Beryl set a record this year. It was the earliest Cat 5 hurricane in recorded history. Otherwise, you can see that this season lines up with the averages for “number of storms” pretty well. Compared to the average for the last three decades, we’ve had:

  • One more named storm
  • One less hurricane
  • The same number of major hurricanes.

Here’s a breakdown on the storms so far this year.

2024-Storm Data Through September

StormDatesMax Winds
TS Alberto19-20 Jun50
MH Beryl28 Jun-9 Jul165
TS Chris30 Jun-1 Jul45
H  Debby 3-9 Aug80
H  Ernesto12-20 Aug100
H Francine9-14 Sept100
TS Gordon13-15 Sept45
MH Helene24-29 Sept140
H Isaac25-? Sept105
TS Joyce27-30 Sept50
TS Kirk30 Sept – ?*
*TS Kirk formed today and is still strengthening. Forecasts say it will likely become a hurricane by 10/1 and Cat 3 by 10/2.

Comparing the two tables above, you can see that we had:

  • Two storms in August compared to the normal four
  • Six storms in September compared to the normal four.

That raises the question, “Will be see a sudden burst of late season activity that fulfills the dire predictions for the season?”

Comparison to Predictions

Earlier this year, I ran several stories about three seasonal outlooks.

Colorado State University predicted a 50%+ increase over the 30-year average for each category (named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes).

TropicalStormRisk.com, a British website which has won insurance industry awards predicted that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 would be more than 50% above the long-term average (1950-1923) and 30% above the average for the last three decades (1991-2020).

And as late as August 8, NOAA said we had a 90% chance of an above average hurricane season with:

  • 17-20 named storms
  • 8-13 hurricanes
  • 4-7 major hurricanes

Of course, the season doesn’t end for two more months, but we’re already four months into it. And usually, by October, activity is tailing off.

peak of hurricane season

Unless there’s a sudden burst late season activity, we will probably fall short of those dire estimates this year.

Of course, as Helene’s 600 mile swath of destruction just reminded us, it only takes one storm to make a bad year for you.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/30/2024

2589 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flood-Control, Water-Supply Dam Differences Help Explain Delay on Lake Houston Gates

9/29/24 – When talking about using the Lake Houston Dam to help control flooding, one often hears experts say, “That’s not a flood-control dam. That’s a water-supply dam.” So, what’s the difference? And why does it make a difference?

The purpose of the dam influences its design, operation and management. An insider familiar with the effort to add more gates to the Lake Houston Dam said last week that engineers at both Houston Public Works and the Coastal Water Authority have resisted trying to modify a water-supply dam for flood control.

This is not the only reason this project has taken so long to get off the ground. But it helps explain why new, higher capacity Lake Houston gates are just now going into final design – 2588 days after the storm that made the need abundantly clear.

To put that in perspective, 2588 days is almost twice the number of days that it took to win World War II.

Conflicting Purposes, Designs

The primary purpose of a flood-control dam is to reduce flood risk by controlling the flow of water downstream during heavy rains. They accomplish this by temporarily holding back the flow of water. They then release it later in a controlled fashion to smooth out peaks and reduce flood damage.

To mitigate flooding, flood-control dams:

  • Often have lower water levels under normal conditions to accommodate sudden influxes of water.
  • Have large spillways and gates to rapidly release water when needed.
  • Are designed with a large storage capacity relative to the expected flood volumes.
  • Are sometimes kept partially empty to ensure sufficient space for incoming floodwaters.
  • Have more robust construction to withstand sudden large inflows and outflows.

On the other hand, the primary purpose of water-supply dams is to store water for human consumption (drinking, bathing, irrigation, industry, etc.).

To ensure consistent supply, a water-supply dam:

  • Prioritizes a consistent water level to ensure a reliable supply of water throughout the year, even during droughts.
  • Is usually kept at higher levels.
  • Stores water over longer periods.
  • Is managed to ensure sufficient supply throughout the year, with a focus on maximizing storage before dry seasons.

In summary, a flood-control dam is designed and managed to mitigate floods by managing excess water. However, a water-supply dam aims to store water for human use.

In practice, these extremes aren’t quite as mutually exclusive as the terms might imply.

Seasonal Management and Its Alternatives

Seasonal management strategies can help bridge the gap between the two. For instance, operators often manage both types of dams seasonally so they have more storage space during rainy seasons when flood risk spikes.

The SJRA adopted a seasonal lake-lowering strategy for several years after Harvey. But because of political pushback from Lake Conroe residents, the strategy was abandoned after several years.

“Stop the Drop” protesters pack an SJRA board meeting in December 2019.

SJRA now uses another hybrid strategy called “active storm management.” “Active Storm Management” seeks to manage lake levels by releasing water based on real-time weather forecasts to manage reservoir levels more effectively.

Other operators use a similar strategy known as FIRO (Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations). Advanced forecasting models predict inflows and adjust dam releases preemptively.

Lake Houston, Lake Conroe Both Water-Supply Dams

Both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston are water-supply dams. But Lake Houston, built in the early 1950s, has a 3160-foot, fixed-height spillway with four small gates capable of releasing only 10,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) combined. Clearly, engineers prioritized consistent water level over flood mitigation when designing this dam. The small gates make it difficult and time consuming to release water before it reaches the level of the spillway.

According to the Houston Public Works Drinking Water Operations Group, Lake Houston supplies water to 2.2 million people.

Lake Conroe, built in 1973, has five large gates capable of releasing 150,000 CFS. It was designed as an alternate water supply for the City of Houston. The City financed its construction and owns two thirds of the water in the lake.

Lake Conroe has nothing comparable to the fixed-height spillway on Lake Houston.

3160-foot concrete and steel spillway on Lake Houston

Compared to spillway above, gates on Lake Houston can release only a small amount. But the spillway can release more than Lake Conroe. See below. It just can’t release that much before a storm.
Lake Houston Dam during Harvey. The wall of water flowing out of the lake was 11 feet higher than the spillway.

During the peak of Harvey, an estimated 425,000 CFS went over the Lake Houston Spillway – 5 times the average flow of Niagara Falls.

In contrast, Lake Conroe released about 80,000 CFS from its gates during Harvey. So why the push to add more gates to Lake Houston?

Gates Key to Hybrid Strategy

Simple. Bigger gates are key to both water conservation and Active Storm Management. Right now, Lake Houston’s gates are so small that lowering the lake significantly can take days. During that time, storms can veer away.

That long lead time creates uncertainty that jeopardizes what Houston Public Works and the Coastal Water Authority see as their primary mission – providing water for 2.2 million people.

We just can’t create extra storage capacity in Lake Houston fast enough with the existing gates.

Why is Design Taking So Long?

But with more, larger gates, Lake Houston could release enough water in hours to create extra storage capacity. And operators would have confidence that water would not be wasted. So why are the gates taking so long?

Design of more gates for Lake Houston has just now started. Using Harvey as a starting point, we are now almost at twice the amount of time that it took to win World War II.

It’s hard to believe that if everyone agreed with the need for more flood gates, it would have taken this long to start design.

In that regard, I have heard of pushback from both Houston Public Works and Coastal Water Authority. The pushback had to do with the mission of the organizations: to supply water. They just didn’t want to risk wasting it in case we encountered drought.

But our two backup water sources (Lake Conroe and Lake Livingston) combined have 15 times the volume of Lake Houston. So the City probably won’t run short anytime soon.

Flood Mitigation Not In CWA Mission

The Coastal Water Authority, which is the City’s contract operator for Lake Houston, does not even mention “flooding” on its website. That’s right. CWA doesn’t mention the word in its mission statement, guiding principles, strategies, or tactics. They do, however, mention “pumps” 15 times on their Strategic-Plan page. That should give you some idea of their priorities: water supply.

Hopefully, Mayor John Whitmire’s recent appointment of former State Representative Dan Huberty to the Coastal Water Authority Board will help the CWA see Lake Houston from more than one perspective. Huberty has advocated for the gates since Harvey.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/29/24

2588 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.