10/19/24 – Tropical Storm Nadine and Hurricane Oscar formed within hours of each other in the last 24 hours. Neither is a threat to Texas. But they put the Atlantic Basin over the average number of named storms it gets during hurricane season and near the low end of predictions made earlier this year.
Nadine (left) and Oscar (right) as of 2 PM CDT
Tropical Storm Nadine
Nadine formed near the Mexican coastline and will quickly move inland near the border with Belize. Nadine’s chances of formation had steadily increased over the last few days.
Hurricane Oscar
Oscar was a different story. Yesterday morning, the disorganized area of showers had only a 20% chance of formation. By this afternoon, it had turned into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph hour winds. The small hurricane could strengthen some more today before weakening and dissipating next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward from Oscar up to 5 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. At 2 PM, the eye was 3 miles wide.
Oscar could dump up to six inches of rain on Cuba, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center predicts no additional tropical developments in the next seven days.
Season To Date
Earlier this year, forecasters predicted an extremely active hurricane season. These two storms – numbers 14 and 15 – put the season total near the low end of the range predicted by the NHC in May.
The table below shows the average number of storms in the Atlantic basin during the last three decades.
So far in the Atlantic Basin this year, we’ve had:
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Nadine-and-Oscar.jpg?fit=678%2C368&ssl=1368678adminadmin2024-10-19 14:17:272024-10-19 14:17:29Nadine and Oscar Form within Hours of Each Other
10/18/24 – According to the US Drought Monitor, Houston has officially slipped into a moderate drought.
Talk about wacky weather. According to the National Weather Service, the Houston area has already recorded its average annual rainfall – with two and a half months left in the year.
NOAA shows that normally we receive 41.52 inches by October 18 in an average year. But so far this year, at IAH, the official recording station, we have received 51.2 inches.
From NWS NowData. The big jump in the blue line reflects Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
So, we are 24% ahead of the average annual rainfall for this date … and in drought. But it gets even more wacky.
I live in the center of Kingwood just a few miles northeast of the airport. And my rain gage has recorded 64.58 inches so far. That’s 54% ahead of the average YTD rainfall.
Looking Ahead
The NWS Climate Prediction Center says that a weak La Niña has a 60% chance to emerge by November and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.
Effect of La Niña on Texas Weather in Fall and Winter
According to ChatGPT, La Niña has significant impacts on Texas weather, especially during the fall and winter seasons. Here’s how La Niña typically affects Texas:
1. Warmer-than-Average Temperatures
Fall and Winter in Texas during a La Niña event tend to be warmer than usual, especially in southern and central Texas. The jet stream tends to shift northward, allowing more warm air to persist over the state. This can lead to milder winters, especially compared to neutral or El Niño conditions.
2. Drier-than-Average Conditions
La Niña often brings below-average rainfall to Texas, particularly in the southern and central regions. This is due to the altered jet stream pattern, which pushes storm tracks farther north, leaving Texas and much of the southern U.S. drier than normal. As a result, drought conditions can develop or worsen, especially in the winter months.
3. Increased Risk of Drought
Because La Niña tends to cause drier-than-average conditions, it can exacerbate drought conditions. This is particularly concerning for Texas, which is prone to periodic droughts. Reduced winter rainfall means less moisture in the soil and reservoirs, affecting agriculture, water supply, and wildfire risks.
4. Wildfire Risk
With drier conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures, the risk of wildfires tends to increase during La Niña winters. This is especially the case in late fall and early winter when vegetation can become dry and more susceptible to fires.
What a wild ride this year has been!!! In the first half of the year, we thought we would drown. Now we could dry up and blow away.
Of course, all averages include extremes. By definition, they mask variation. And this year, they could mask a lot.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/18/24
2607 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Texas-Drought-10.15.24.png?fit=2516%2C1424&ssl=114242516adminadmin2024-10-18 14:17:082024-10-18 14:20:3024% Ahead of Rainfall for Year, Houston Slips into Drought
10/17/24 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) held a meeting Wednesday night at the Kingwood Community Center to explain the scope of its maintenance activities. The exhibits were designed to raise awareness of the types of things HCFCD does in order to help educate the public in advance of the vote on HCFCD’s Proposition A.
Proposition A would increase HCFCD taxes 63 percent.
Not discussed at the meeting:
A basis for the percentage increase in the tax rate
Justification for the amount of the tax increase, i.e., linking objectives/tasks to cost estimates and budgets
How, where or when the additional money would be deployed
For those who couldn’t make the meeting, I’ll provide a brief recap of the exhibits below. There was no formal presentation. Residents walked from table to table and asked the staff questions about the oversized poster exhibits shown below. Some of the type gets pretty small when reproduced on a cell phone or tablet, so I’ll provide some context.
At the end, I will also provide some feedback from attendees.
What Does Proposition A Include?
The first poster talked about the proposed tax increase. The small type explains the before and after tax rates if Prop A is approved. The HCFCD tax RATE would go from 3.316 cents to 4.897 cents per $100 of assessed valuation. That’s a 57% increase in the rate. What they don’t show is an average 6% increase in valuations this year, bringing the total increase in your tax BILL up to 63%. The rate is applied to a larger base.
The small type says that the average homeowner would see an increase of $60/year. Altogether, the new tax would generate $100 million of additional revenue for HCFCD.
Here is the language you will find on your ballot. Notice that it says the new tax would go toward “operating and maintaining the District’s flood-risk-reduction infrastructure.”
Text of HCFCD Tax Proposal
The reference to operations would let the $100 million be spent on virtually anything…like the $3 million Commissioners Court approved last week to hire a consulting firm to write the county’s resilience plan.
Scope of Maintenance Activities
The rest of the posters discussed different types of maintenance.
Examples of preventative maintenance include mowing and debris removal.
They vary throughout the year by season. This chart shows seasonal shifts in emphasis. For instance, they plant trees in the fall and winter.
Activities change by the season.Channels in the Kingwood area that have received maintenance help since Harvey.Forward-looking maintenance includes things like tree planting; selective clearing; and planting of native grasses and wildflowers.
HCFCD also does major maintenance projects that border on capital improvement projects.
Examples include sediment removal from channels; channel sidewall replacement; repairs to concrete lining and outfalls; and erosion repairs.
See before-and-after examples below.
Service Requests
The pie-chart below shows the major types of service requests that members of the public request. The top categories are:
Debris 29%
Ponding Water 13%
Tree 12%
Unauthorized use 11%
Erosion 10%
Vegetation Overgrowth 9%
Note also how the level of service requests has remained relatively constant for the last four years. There is less than 5% variation.
This heat map shows where the most service requests came from in the county.
Precinct 4 is the pinkish color at the top of the map.
Beryl and the Derecho
The biggest effort in recent years has been debris removal following Hurricane Beryl and the derecho.
HCFCD/FEMA contractors have removed 40,000 tons (80 million pounds) of debris so far this year.
Mixed Feedback/Support
Dee Price, KSA President, was positive. She said, “After attending the Harris County Flood Control District’s public meeting on Proposition A, it is my assessment that Harris County Flood Control District needs additional funds to maintain all of the infrastructure for which it is responsible. It is my opinion that Kingwood would benefit if HCFCD receives additional funds that would enable them to maintain the drainage infrastructure in Kingwood.”
Jeff Miller, an Elm Grove resident who lives near Taylor Gully, said, “HCFCD freely admitted that their performance has been falling short for a long time but that with more funding, they can catch up. I plan to vote for Prop A, but based on our experience with the 2018 flood bond, I’m doing so reluctantly.”
I was skeptical based on previous experiences with the 2018 Flood Bond and 2022 Bond. County commissioners changed those deals after voters approved them. “The same thing could happen with Prop A and the Lake Houston Area could wind up funding projects everywhere but here.”
Turnout for the meeting was approximately 40 people – very low compared to the 13,000 that flooded in the Lake Houston Area in recent years.
Only one thing is certain – either way, you have the power to send a message with your vote.
Two Additional Meetings
HCFCD has scheduled two additional Zoom meetings for people who couldn’t attend in person.
Thursday, October 24 | 12:00 – 1:00 p.m
Wednesday, October 30 | 12:00 – 1:00 p.m.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/17/24
2606 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20241016-Service-Request-History.jpg?fit=1100%2C885&ssl=18851100adminadmin2024-10-17 18:32:102024-10-17 18:32:11HCFCD Explains Scope of Maintenance Needs, Proposition A
Nadine and Oscar Form within Hours of Each Other
10/19/24 – Tropical Storm Nadine and Hurricane Oscar formed within hours of each other in the last 24 hours. Neither is a threat to Texas. But they put the Atlantic Basin over the average number of named storms it gets during hurricane season and near the low end of predictions made earlier this year.
Tropical Storm Nadine
Nadine formed near the Mexican coastline and will quickly move inland near the border with Belize. Nadine’s chances of formation had steadily increased over the last few days.
Hurricane Oscar
Oscar was a different story. Yesterday morning, the disorganized area of showers had only a 20% chance of formation. By this afternoon, it had turned into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph hour winds. The small hurricane could strengthen some more today before weakening and dissipating next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward from Oscar up to 5 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. At 2 PM, the eye was 3 miles wide.
Oscar could dump up to six inches of rain on Cuba, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center predicts no additional tropical developments in the next seven days.
Season To Date
Earlier this year, forecasters predicted an extremely active hurricane season. These two storms – numbers 14 and 15 – put the season total near the low end of the range predicted by the NHC in May.
The table below shows the average number of storms in the Atlantic basin during the last three decades.
So far in the Atlantic Basin this year, we’ve had:
And we still have six more weeks left in the season.
For an excellent recap of the season, including each storm within it, see the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Page on Wikipedia. It contains narratives on each storm plus statistical tables.
The next storms, if they form, will be:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/19/24
2608 Days since Hurricane Harvey
24% Ahead of Rainfall for Year, Houston Slips into Drought
10/18/24 – According to the US Drought Monitor, Houston has officially slipped into a moderate drought.
Talk about wacky weather. According to the National Weather Service, the Houston area has already recorded its average annual rainfall – with two and a half months left in the year.
NOAA shows that normally we receive 41.52 inches by October 18 in an average year. But so far this year, at IAH, the official recording station, we have received 51.2 inches.
So, we are 24% ahead of the average annual rainfall for this date … and in drought. But it gets even more wacky.
I live in the center of Kingwood just a few miles northeast of the airport. And my rain gage has recorded 64.58 inches so far. That’s 54% ahead of the average YTD rainfall.
Looking Ahead
The NWS Climate Prediction Center says that a weak La Niña has a 60% chance to emerge by November and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.
What does that mean for the Houston area?
Effect of La Niña on Texas Weather in Fall and Winter
According to ChatGPT, La Niña has significant impacts on Texas weather, especially during the fall and winter seasons. Here’s how La Niña typically affects Texas:
1. Warmer-than-Average Temperatures
2. Drier-than-Average Conditions
3. Increased Risk of Drought
4. Wildfire Risk
With drier conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures, the risk of wildfires tends to increase during La Niña winters. This is especially the case in late fall and early winter when vegetation can become dry and more susceptible to fires.
What a wild ride this year has been!!! In the first half of the year, we thought we would drown. Now we could dry up and blow away.
Of course, all averages include extremes. By definition, they mask variation. And this year, they could mask a lot.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/18/24
2607 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Explains Scope of Maintenance Needs, Proposition A
10/17/24 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) held a meeting Wednesday night at the Kingwood Community Center to explain the scope of its maintenance activities. The exhibits were designed to raise awareness of the types of things HCFCD does in order to help educate the public in advance of the vote on HCFCD’s Proposition A.
Not discussed at the meeting:
For those who couldn’t make the meeting, I’ll provide a brief recap of the exhibits below. There was no formal presentation. Residents walked from table to table and asked the staff questions about the oversized poster exhibits shown below. Some of the type gets pretty small when reproduced on a cell phone or tablet, so I’ll provide some context.
At the end, I will also provide some feedback from attendees.
What Does Proposition A Include?
The first poster talked about the proposed tax increase. The small type explains the before and after tax rates if Prop A is approved. The HCFCD tax RATE would go from 3.316 cents to 4.897 cents per $100 of assessed valuation. That’s a 57% increase in the rate. What they don’t show is an average 6% increase in valuations this year, bringing the total increase in your tax BILL up to 63%. The rate is applied to a larger base.
Here is the language you will find on your ballot. Notice that it says the new tax would go toward “operating and maintaining the District’s flood-risk-reduction infrastructure.”
The reference to operations would let the $100 million be spent on virtually anything…like the $3 million Commissioners Court approved last week to hire a consulting firm to write the county’s resilience plan.
Scope of Maintenance Activities
The rest of the posters discussed different types of maintenance.
They vary throughout the year by season. This chart shows seasonal shifts in emphasis. For instance, they plant trees in the fall and winter.
HCFCD also does major maintenance projects that border on capital improvement projects.
See before-and-after examples below.
Service Requests
The pie-chart below shows the major types of service requests that members of the public request. The top categories are:
This heat map shows where the most service requests came from in the county.
Beryl and the Derecho
The biggest effort in recent years has been debris removal following Hurricane Beryl and the derecho.
Mixed Feedback/Support
Dee Price, KSA President, was positive. She said, “After attending the Harris County Flood Control District’s public meeting on Proposition A, it is my assessment that Harris County Flood Control District needs additional funds to maintain all of the infrastructure for which it is responsible. It is my opinion that Kingwood would benefit if HCFCD receives additional funds that would enable them to maintain the drainage infrastructure in Kingwood.”
Jeff Miller, an Elm Grove resident who lives near Taylor Gully, said, “HCFCD freely admitted that their performance has been falling short for a long time but that with more funding, they can catch up. I plan to vote for Prop A, but based on our experience with the 2018 flood bond, I’m doing so reluctantly.”
I was skeptical based on previous experiences with the 2018 Flood Bond and 2022 Bond. County commissioners changed those deals after voters approved them. “The same thing could happen with Prop A and the Lake Houston Area could wind up funding projects everywhere but here.”
Turnout for the meeting was approximately 40 people – very low compared to the 13,000 that flooded in the Lake Houston Area in recent years.
Only one thing is certain – either way, you have the power to send a message with your vote.
Two Additional Meetings
HCFCD has scheduled two additional Zoom meetings for people who couldn’t attend in person.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/17/24
2606 Days since Hurricane Harvey