10/16/24 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) and Precinct 3 will host a tax meeting at the Kingwood Community Center tonight starting at 6 PM. The purpose: discuss the thinking behind HCFCD’s request for what amounts to a 63% increase in taxes to cover operations and maintenance.
See details below.
Ask Tough Questions
Please come to the tax meeting. The community needs your support.
The 63% increase to tax bills will result from a 56% increase in the tax rate applied to a 7% increase in property valuations.
Is it worth it? Whether you see any benefit from the money depends on where you live in the county. Up here in the northeastern part, we’ve been fooled twice already.
When we were promised the 2018 flood bond would take care of the worst flooding first. And when we were told each of the four precincts would get at least $220 million from the 2022 bond. Commissioners Ellis and Garcia along with County Judge Hidalgo changed each deal after the fact.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
So come prepared to ask tough questions. Like:
Why haven’t we seen any benefit from the flood bond after six years?
Six years in, money from the 2018 flood bond has not been distributed fairly across the county. The far northeastern part of the county has been severely punished for its Republican leanings, despite having some of the worst flooding in the county.
Chart showing feet above flood stage of 33 gages of misc. bayous in Harris County during Harvey.The four gages on the left all feed into Lake Houston
Harris County has 23 watersheds. Since Hurricane Harvey:
The top 11 have received $1.2 billion in flood mitigation funding.
The bottom 11 have received $172 million.
The average difference? 7X. Here’s what that looks like.
Through third quarter 2024. Source: HCFCD data obtained via a FOIA request.
The San Jacinto River, Luce Bayou and Jackson Bayou watersheds all fall into the bottom 11.
So now that we’ve funneled more than a billion dollars worth of capital improvement projects into low-income areas, who do you think will have the greatest maintenance needs?
I’m going to see what they say tonight at the tax meeting before I make any recommendations. Hope to see you there.
Bring a neighbor. Pack the room.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/16/2024
2605 Days since Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2024-10-16 16:54:342024-10-16 16:57:35Flood Control Tax Meeting Tonight at Kingwood Community Center, 6 PM
10/15/24 – Even as Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) pleads with voters for a 63% tax increase, its spending continues to decrease – on both a quarterly and annual basis.
Come to the meeting Wednesday night at the Kingwood Community Center to learn more about HCFCD’s Proposition A on your ballot.
According to HCFCD data obtained via a FOIA request, HCFCD spending declined:
36% from the second to third quarter of this year ($67,983,033 to $43,179,077).
13% from 2023 to 2024 ($252,949,555 to $219,207,447 annualized. I estimated the annualized 2024 figure by adding the average of the first three quarters to their totals.)
See the first two graphs below.
Unless we see a dramatic turnaround in the fourth quarter of this year, spending will decline for four straight years since its peak in 2020.
Spending ramped up rapidly after Hurricane Harvey with the passage of the 2018 flood bond. But since 2020, it has declined precipitously and is now almost down to pre-bond levels. Why?
Possible Reasons for Decline
In fairness, the pandemic slowed many businesses, not just HCFCD. But the pandemic is behind us. And flood mitigation spending continues to fall.
The decline also coincides with a change in leadership at HCFCD and a change in direction from Commissioners Court.
The Democratic majority in Commissioners Court has burdened HCFCD processes with frequent changes to the “Equity Prioritization Framework.” The framework prioritizes projects that benefit low-to-moderate income (LMI) areas, not necessarily those with the most flood damage, the most severe flooding, the most frequent flooding or the highest flood risk.
HCFCD hasn’t yet even released flood-risk data requested by the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force four years ago. If this were a poker game, I’d call that a “tell.”
Money Waiting to be Used
To its credit, HCFCD has secured enough matching partnership funding to more than double the $2.5 billion dollars approved by voters. But the District isn’t spending it.
It has taken two years to compile a project list for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and Texas General Land Office (GLO), which administers HUD funds in Texas.
Meanwhile, $825 million dollars are waiting in the wings.
PowerPoint slide from April 2024
HCFCD keeps trying to get the LMI percentage of that $825 million up to 70%, even though HUD requires only 50%. And the deadline for those 13 Disaster Recovery Projects worth $290 million is rapidly approaching.
Roughly 37% of Bond Spent in 60% of Time
More than six years after the passage of the flood bond, HCFCD has spent only about $1.9 billion out of the $5.1 billion available through bond and matching funds. So, the District has used only 37% of the money committed in 60% of the 10 years originally projected for the bond program.*
Currently, LMI considerations heavily influence HCFCD spending. Brays, Greens, White Oak, Halls, Hunting and Sims Bayous all have a majority of LMI residents. Brays is the first bayou to top $200 million in HCFCD spending since Harvey. Greens has topped $175 million. And White Oak is a whisker short of $150 million.
Meanwhile, the San Jacinto watershed ranks 13th out of 23 watersheds. Yet it had the highest flooding in the county during Harvey.
San Jacinto at US59 circled in red. Note locations of areas on right that didn’t even flood.
Current Priorities Shifting a Bit
When looking only at the third quarter of 2024, the picture has somewhat improved for the San Jacinto. During the last quarter, the San Jacinto watershed ranked 7th, but still fell behind White Oak, Halls, Greens and Brays watersheds, all of which have LMI-majority populations.
HCFCD announced the completion of Project Brays more than two years ago. And yet HCFCD still spends more money there than in the San Jacinto watershed, which is the county’s largest … with the county’s worst flooding.
But alas, Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in the Brays Bayou Watershed. So, we in the San Jacinto will have to wait to see if any money is left to improve Taylor Gully, Woodridge Village or the Diversion Ditch.
And those poor souls who live near Spring Creek, which had the second highest flooding? Well, they’ll have to wait too.
Strange how most of the waiting is being done in Republican-dominated areas. For instance, Jackson and Luce Bayous (both east of Lake Houston) barely register as blips on the graph above.
Tough Tax Questions
So, should you vote for the new flood tax? Not until you learn more.
HCFCD is pushing the 63% tax increase as a maintenance tax, even though nothing in the ballot language restricts the tax to maintenance.
Wednesday night, HCFCD will hold a meeting at the Kingwood Community Center from 6 to 7:30 PM. Be there!
Ask whether you will see any benefit from the tax.
Why does HCFCD need a 63% increase when it has trouble spending the money it already has?
Is HCFCD capable of administering a larger budget in a timely way?
Is there any guarantee the money will be spent here?
If capital improvement money is largely going elsewhere, shouldn’t we assume that maintenance money will follow it?
I’m going to see what they say before I make any recommendations. Hope to see you there.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/15/24
2604 Days since Hurricane Harvey
* A word about data. The data provided by HCFCD includes maintenance spending, not just capital improvement expenditures from the bond. So $1.9 billion is an estimate. If it varies, it would vary downwards, making the disparity in the percentages greater.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Spend-by-Quarter-since-Harvey.png?fit=1934%2C1132&ssl=111321934adminadmin2024-10-15 17:46:282024-10-16 15:40:26HCFCD Spending Drops Even As It Seeks Massive Tax Increase
10/14/24 – Looking at the National Hurricane Center’s afternoon update, Yogi Berra’s famous quote comes to mind – “It ain’t over till it’s over.” Of course, Yogi was speaking of baseball and I’m speaking of the 2024 hurricane season.
NHC posted a new 7-day outlook at 1:28 this afternoon showing two areas of concern. One in the middle of the Atlantic has a 50% chance of development. The one in the western Caribbean has a 20% chance.
The first is where Cat 5 Hurricane Kirk just formed. The latter is the same general area where Cat 5 Hurricanes Helene and Milton formed within the last three weeks.
Central Atlantic Formation Chance Now 60 Percent
Here’s what NHC has to say about the orange area in the Central Atlantic.
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days.
However, this system will move generally westward toward warmer waters. There, environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.
A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.
National Hurricane Center
Formation chance through 48 hours is only 10 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is currently 60 percent. The formation chance has steadily increased for this area during the last few days.
Western Caribbean
Regarding that area in the Western Caribbean, NHC says this.
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week.
Some development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is 20 percent at this hour.
Remember: six more weeks of hurricane season. And it ain’t over till it’s over. So keep checking NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/14/24
2603 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/two_atl_7d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-10-14 13:58:252024-10-14 14:01:18It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over
Flood Control Tax Meeting Tonight at Kingwood Community Center, 6 PM
10/16/24 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) and Precinct 3 will host a tax meeting at the Kingwood Community Center tonight starting at 6 PM. The purpose: discuss the thinking behind HCFCD’s request for what amounts to a 63% increase in taxes to cover operations and maintenance.
See details below.
Ask Tough Questions
Please come to the tax meeting. The community needs your support.
The 63% increase to tax bills will result from a 56% increase in the tax rate applied to a 7% increase in property valuations.
Is it worth it? Whether you see any benefit from the money depends on where you live in the county. Up here in the northeastern part, we’ve been fooled twice already.
When we were promised the 2018 flood bond would take care of the worst flooding first. And when we were told each of the four precincts would get at least $220 million from the 2022 bond. Commissioners Ellis and Garcia along with County Judge Hidalgo changed each deal after the fact.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
So come prepared to ask tough questions. Like:
The Robin Hood Plan
Six years in, money from the 2018 flood bond has not been distributed fairly across the county. The far northeastern part of the county has been severely punished for its Republican leanings, despite having some of the worst flooding in the county.
Harris County has 23 watersheds. Since Hurricane Harvey:
The average difference? 7X. Here’s what that looks like.
The San Jacinto River, Luce Bayou and Jackson Bayou watersheds all fall into the bottom 11.
So now that we’ve funneled more than a billion dollars worth of capital improvement projects into low-income areas, who do you think will have the greatest maintenance needs?
I’m going to see what they say tonight at the tax meeting before I make any recommendations. Hope to see you there.
Bring a neighbor. Pack the room.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/16/2024
2605 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Spending Drops Even As It Seeks Massive Tax Increase
10/15/24 – Even as Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) pleads with voters for a 63% tax increase, its spending continues to decrease – on both a quarterly and annual basis.
Come to the meeting Wednesday night at the Kingwood Community Center to learn more about HCFCD’s Proposition A on your ballot.
According to HCFCD data obtained via a FOIA request, HCFCD spending declined:
See the first two graphs below.
Spending ramped up rapidly after Hurricane Harvey with the passage of the 2018 flood bond. But since 2020, it has declined precipitously and is now almost down to pre-bond levels. Why?
Possible Reasons for Decline
In fairness, the pandemic slowed many businesses, not just HCFCD. But the pandemic is behind us. And flood mitigation spending continues to fall.
The decline also coincides with a change in leadership at HCFCD and a change in direction from Commissioners Court.
The Democratic majority in Commissioners Court has burdened HCFCD processes with frequent changes to the “Equity Prioritization Framework.” The framework prioritizes projects that benefit low-to-moderate income (LMI) areas, not necessarily those with the most flood damage, the most severe flooding, the most frequent flooding or the highest flood risk.
HCFCD hasn’t yet even released flood-risk data requested by the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force four years ago. If this were a poker game, I’d call that a “tell.”
Money Waiting to be Used
To its credit, HCFCD has secured enough matching partnership funding to more than double the $2.5 billion dollars approved by voters. But the District isn’t spending it.
It has taken two years to compile a project list for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and Texas General Land Office (GLO), which administers HUD funds in Texas.
Meanwhile, $825 million dollars are waiting in the wings.
HCFCD keeps trying to get the LMI percentage of that $825 million up to 70%, even though HUD requires only 50%. And the deadline for those 13 Disaster Recovery Projects worth $290 million is rapidly approaching.
Roughly 37% of Bond Spent in 60% of Time
More than six years after the passage of the flood bond, HCFCD has spent only about $1.9 billion out of the $5.1 billion available through bond and matching funds. So, the District has used only 37% of the money committed in 60% of the 10 years originally projected for the bond program.*
Meanwhile inflation has taken its toll on purchasing power, putting the future of many projects at risk. HCFCD has requested extensions on CDBG projects, but GLO is still evaluating them on a case-by-case basis.
The LMI Imperative
Currently, LMI considerations heavily influence HCFCD spending. Brays, Greens, White Oak, Halls, Hunting and Sims Bayous all have a majority of LMI residents. Brays is the first bayou to top $200 million in HCFCD spending since Harvey. Greens has topped $175 million. And White Oak is a whisker short of $150 million.
Meanwhile, the San Jacinto watershed ranks 13th out of 23 watersheds. Yet it had the highest flooding in the county during Harvey.
Current Priorities Shifting a Bit
When looking only at the third quarter of 2024, the picture has somewhat improved for the San Jacinto. During the last quarter, the San Jacinto watershed ranked 7th, but still fell behind White Oak, Halls, Greens and Brays watersheds, all of which have LMI-majority populations.
HCFCD announced the completion of Project Brays more than two years ago. And yet HCFCD still spends more money there than in the San Jacinto watershed, which is the county’s largest … with the county’s worst flooding.
But alas, Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in the Brays Bayou Watershed. So, we in the San Jacinto will have to wait to see if any money is left to improve Taylor Gully, Woodridge Village or the Diversion Ditch.
And those poor souls who live near Spring Creek, which had the second highest flooding? Well, they’ll have to wait too.
Strange how most of the waiting is being done in Republican-dominated areas. For instance, Jackson and Luce Bayous (both east of Lake Houston) barely register as blips on the graph above.
Tough Tax Questions
So, should you vote for the new flood tax? Not until you learn more.
HCFCD is pushing the 63% tax increase as a maintenance tax, even though nothing in the ballot language restricts the tax to maintenance.
Wednesday night, HCFCD will hold a meeting at the Kingwood Community Center from 6 to 7:30 PM. Be there!
Ask whether you will see any benefit from the tax.
I’m going to see what they say before I make any recommendations. Hope to see you there.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/15/24
2604 Days since Hurricane Harvey
* A word about data. The data provided by HCFCD includes maintenance spending, not just capital improvement expenditures from the bond. So $1.9 billion is an estimate. If it varies, it would vary downwards, making the disparity in the percentages greater.
It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over
10/14/24 – Looking at the National Hurricane Center’s afternoon update, Yogi Berra’s famous quote comes to mind – “It ain’t over till it’s over.” Of course, Yogi was speaking of baseball and I’m speaking of the 2024 hurricane season.
NHC posted a new 7-day outlook at 1:28 this afternoon showing two areas of concern. One in the middle of the Atlantic has a 50% chance of development. The one in the western Caribbean has a 20% chance.
The first is where Cat 5 Hurricane Kirk just formed. The latter is the same general area where Cat 5 Hurricanes Helene and Milton formed within the last three weeks.
Central Atlantic Formation Chance Now 60 Percent
Here’s what NHC has to say about the orange area in the Central Atlantic.
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days.
However, this system will move generally westward toward warmer waters. There, environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours is only 10 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is currently 60 percent. The formation chance has steadily increased for this area during the last few days.
Western Caribbean
Regarding that area in the Western Caribbean, NHC says this.
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week.
Some development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is 20 percent at this hour.
This is near where Helene and Milton began.
Remember: six more weeks of hurricane season. And it ain’t over till it’s over. So keep checking NHC daily.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/14/24
2603 Days since Hurricane Harvey