9/28/24 – Forecasters predicted a very active 2024 hurricane season. After a slow start, the map is really lighting up. Currently, we have three named storms in the Atlantic Basin:
Remnants of Hurricane Helene, which is now a post-tropical depression centered over Tennessee
Hurricane Isaac, which formed in the middle of the Atlantic without much notice while Helene was barreling toward Florida earlier this week
Tropical Storm Joyce, also in the mid-Atlantic
Still Brewing
None of those named storms is a threat to Houston. However, the map shows two other areas of concern. See below.
Red Area
That elongated red area in the tropical Atlantic a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system. A tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next week. The system should move toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
As of today, NHC lists formation chances for that red area as low (30%) in the next two days, but high (70%) in the next seven days.
Orange Area
Of greater concern for Texans, however, though is that orange area stretching from the northwestern Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure should form there within a couple of days. NHC says environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development thereafter. They also say that a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.
This system should move northwestward into the Gulf during the latter portion of next week. NHC warns that interests in and along the Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.
As of today, formation chance through 48 hours is zero. But it’s 50% within 7 days.
Will the Gulf Go 4 for 4?
Lest anyone forget, this area has already spawned two major hurricanes and a hurricane in the last three months – Beryl, Francine and Helene.
Beryl ramped up to a Category 5 before hitting Houston in July.
Francine slammed Louisiana as a Cat 2 in September
Helene made landfall in Florida as a Cat 4 just two days ago.
Sea surface temps in that area are still 1.8 to 5.4 Fahrenheit above normal for this time of year (1-3º C).
So, don’t let your guard down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/28/24
2587 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/two_atl_7d0-3.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-09-28 13:52:242024-09-28 14:06:39Three Named Storms in Atlantic Basin With Two More Brewing
9/27/24 – Hurricane Helene roared ashore last night and by noon today had triggered flooding in at least eight states, according to the National Weather Service.
Helene Floods Eight States
The states include: Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky. See orange, red and purple areas below.
From NWS Water Prediction Center. Gage data from noon 9/26/24 to noon 9/27/24. Purple = Major Flooding, Red = Moderate, Brown = Minor. Yellow = Action.
Many of those same areas could still see additional rainfall. Through 7 AM CDT, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center gives 15 states a chance for additional excessive rainfall. See below.
Power Outages and Deaths
Meanwhile, more than 3 million people in affected areas remain without power, according to PowerOutages.US.
The Hill reports that at least 35 people died as a result of the Category 4 storm.
At this hour, NBC puts the death toll at 42 and says more than 4 million people are without power.
USA Today reported within the hour that 4.5 million people have no electricity.
The death toll will likely increase in coming days as rescuers race to free more people trapped in flooded areas.
It could take weeks to restore all the power given the breadth of the devastation. An Associated Press report said that in Georgia, “…an electrical utility group warned of ‘catastrophic’ damage to the state’s utility infrastructure, with more than 100 high voltage transmission lines damaged.”
AP also reported that in South Carolina, “more than 40% of homes and businesses were without power.” They said crews needed to cut their way through debris just to determine what was still standing in some places.
Helene Now a Tropical Depression
At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center has downgraded Helene to a tropical depression with sustained winds of 35 MPH and forward motion of 17 MPH.
Summary of Weather Stats
For a list of reported rainfall totals to date and peak wind gusts associated with Helene, see this list from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction as of 11 AM EDT 9/27/24. Busick, North Carolina recorded the highest rainfall total to date: 29.58 inches.
All in all, the forecasters predicted Helene’s impacts pretty accurately.
Helene is the latest reminder of why we need to continue fighting for flood mitigation. It could have happened here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/27/24
2586 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/20240927-Helene-Flooding.jpg?fit=1100%2C614&ssl=16141100adminadmin2024-09-27 17:01:582024-09-27 17:27:06Helene Triggers Flooding in 8 States, Millions Without Power
9/26/24 5:20 PM CDT Update – Helene has become a Category 4 storm with 130 MPHsustained winds.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Helene is rapidly becoming one of the “largest hurricanes in decades.” Comparing Helene to previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, they say, “Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size.”
Widespread Impacts, “Immense Human Suffering”
Helene’s hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. And tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles.
“As a result , storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side,” they say.
“In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds. That includes strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, characterized Helene as “extremely dangerous.” He said, “Widespread and significant impacts will produce immense human suffering by modern standards.”
Large parts of the SE US will have a greater than 50% chance of tropical-storm-force or higher winds from Helene.
Already High End of Category 2 at 10 AM
As of 10AM, maximum sustained winds had increased to near 105 MPH with higher gusts. That puts Helene just five miles per hour from becoming a major category three hurricane.
Helene was moving toward the Big Bend area of the Florida Panhandle at 14 MPH and will make landfall this evening. After landfall, Helene should turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
The minimum central pressure has plummeted to 947 mb.
Additionally, water level rise along the west coast of Florida has begun and will quickly worsen through the day. Catastrophic storm surge will reach up to 15-20 feet above normally dry ground.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches.
This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.
Key Messages
A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.
Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland. Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including numerous significant landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river flooding are likely.
Helene in Historical Perspective
All indications at this point suggest Helene will have a huge impact on the southeastern US.
Helene at 10 AM Central Daylight TimeWider shot taken at 5:30 PM CDT slightly before landfall.
“This is likely to be the worst hurricane event for this area in over a generation. Conditions near the coast will not be survivable.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Lindner continued, “Since 1851 there are no records of storms of this magnitude in Apalachee Bay. All coastal structures/infrastructure lower than 15 ft will be completely destroyed. Older slab built structures in this area will suffer catastrophic damage and likely be washed away. Water levels will almost certainly rise to the second floors of elevated structures and some of these will face total collapse. All available efforts should be utilized to evacuate these areas.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/26/24 at 11 AMbased on information from NHC and Harris County
2585 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1000x1000.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=110001000adminadmin2024-09-26 11:41:132024-09-26 18:10:54Helene Will Be One of Largest Hurricanes in Decades
Three Named Storms in Atlantic Basin With Two More Brewing
9/28/24 – Forecasters predicted a very active 2024 hurricane season. After a slow start, the map is really lighting up. Currently, we have three named storms in the Atlantic Basin:
Still Brewing
None of those named storms is a threat to Houston. However, the map shows two other areas of concern. See below.
Red Area
That elongated red area in the tropical Atlantic a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system. A tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next week. The system should move toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
As of today, NHC lists formation chances for that red area as low (30%) in the next two days, but high (70%) in the next seven days.
Orange Area
Of greater concern for Texans, however, though is that orange area stretching from the northwestern Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure should form there within a couple of days. NHC says environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development thereafter. They also say that a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.
This system should move northwestward into the Gulf during the latter portion of next week. NHC warns that interests in and along the Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.
As of today, formation chance through 48 hours is zero. But it’s 50% within 7 days.
Will the Gulf Go 4 for 4?
Lest anyone forget, this area has already spawned two major hurricanes and a hurricane in the last three months – Beryl, Francine and Helene.
Sea surface temps in that area are still 1.8 to 5.4 Fahrenheit above normal for this time of year (1-3º C).
So, don’t let your guard down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/28/24
2587 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Helene Triggers Flooding in 8 States, Millions Without Power
9/27/24 – Hurricane Helene roared ashore last night and by noon today had triggered flooding in at least eight states, according to the National Weather Service.
Helene Floods Eight States
The states include: Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky. See orange, red and purple areas below.
Many of those same areas could still see additional rainfall. Through 7 AM CDT, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center gives 15 states a chance for additional excessive rainfall. See below.
Power Outages and Deaths
Meanwhile, more than 3 million people in affected areas remain without power, according to PowerOutages.US.
The Hill reports that at least 35 people died as a result of the Category 4 storm.
At this hour, NBC puts the death toll at 42 and says more than 4 million people are without power.
USA Today reported within the hour that 4.5 million people have no electricity.
The death toll will likely increase in coming days as rescuers race to free more people trapped in flooded areas.
It could take weeks to restore all the power given the breadth of the devastation. An Associated Press report said that in Georgia, “…an electrical utility group warned of ‘catastrophic’ damage to the state’s utility infrastructure, with more than 100 high voltage transmission lines damaged.”
AP also reported that in South Carolina, “more than 40% of homes and businesses were without power.” They said crews needed to cut their way through debris just to determine what was still standing in some places.
Helene Now a Tropical Depression
At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center has downgraded Helene to a tropical depression with sustained winds of 35 MPH and forward motion of 17 MPH.
Summary of Weather Stats
For a list of reported rainfall totals to date and peak wind gusts associated with Helene, see this list from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction as of 11 AM EDT 9/27/24. Busick, North Carolina recorded the highest rainfall total to date: 29.58 inches.
All in all, the forecasters predicted Helene’s impacts pretty accurately.
Helene is the latest reminder of why we need to continue fighting for flood mitigation. It could have happened here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/27/24
2586 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Helene Will Be One of Largest Hurricanes in Decades
9/26/24 5:20 PM CDT Update – Helene has become a Category 4 storm with 130 MPH sustained winds.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Helene is rapidly becoming one of the “largest hurricanes in decades.” Comparing Helene to previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, they say, “Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size.”
Widespread Impacts, “Immense Human Suffering”
Helene’s hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. And tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles.
“As a result , storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side,” they say.
“In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds. That includes strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, characterized Helene as “extremely dangerous.” He said, “Widespread and significant impacts will produce immense human suffering by modern standards.”
Already High End of Category 2 at 10 AM
As of 10AM, maximum sustained winds had increased to near 105 MPH with higher gusts. That puts Helene just five miles per hour from becoming a major category three hurricane.
Helene was moving toward the Big Bend area of the Florida Panhandle at 14 MPH and will make landfall this evening. After landfall, Helene should turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
The minimum central pressure has plummeted to 947 mb.
Additionally, water level rise along the west coast of Florida has begun and will quickly worsen through the day. Catastrophic storm surge will reach up to 15-20 feet above normally dry ground.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches.
This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.
Key Messages
Helene in Historical Perspective
All indications at this point suggest Helene will have a huge impact on the southeastern US.
Lindner continued, “Since 1851 there are no records of storms of this magnitude in Apalachee Bay. All coastal structures/infrastructure lower than 15 ft will be completely destroyed. Older slab built structures in this area will suffer catastrophic damage and likely be washed away. Water levels will almost certainly rise to the second floors of elevated structures and some of these will face total collapse. All available efforts should be utilized to evacuate these areas.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/26/24 at 11 AM based on information from NHC and Harris County
2585 Days since Hurricane Harvey