9/22/2024 at 6PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a 2PM update today that warns of an 80% chance of a potential new tropical system forming in the seven days. They give the new tropical system a 40% chance in the next two days. The system is now centered in the northwestern Caribbean between Honduras and Cuba.
However, NHC predicts the storm will track somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle. While it is no immediate threat to Texas, residents should keep an eye on developments in the next few days, they say.
NHC Graphics
Two-day outlook gives system a 40% chance of development.Seven-day outlook gives the system an 80% chance.
Favorable Environmental Conditions
NHC predicts the track will bend east after crossing between the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba.
“Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure,” they say. “Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days…”
Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature.
Later this week, the system should move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and “interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.”
Potential system in center of frame could be pulled north and east by an exiting low-pressure system that now stretches from West Texas to New Englandnear top of frame.
Local Impacts Seen as Limited As of Now
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, said, “The system should lift northward over the Gulf of Mexico by mid to late week. A large upper level low over the southern plains will help draw the tropical system north of northeast toward the US Gulf coast.”
Lindner added that most models are in agreement at this point which makes confidence fairly high. However, he also said, “There may be some small differences in the ultimate track toward the US Gulf coast.”
He concluded, “Guidance also suggests this will be a large tropical system which is capable of moving huge amounts of water in the Gulf.”
“With the current higher than normal fall lunar tides in place, there is some potential for elevated tides along the Texas coast late this week, even for a tropical system passing well to our east.”
If this system turns into a named storm, it will become Helene.
Everyone predicted a severe hurricane season this year, but so far, it has not materialized. On average, we have our tenth named storm by now. See below.
All last week, forecasters warned that this storm had a chance of development. And on most days, the chances increased. Keep your eye on this one!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/24
2581 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/two_atl_7d0-2.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-09-22 18:30:362024-09-22 18:30:37Potential New Tropical System Headed Toward Central Gulf
9/21/2024 – Is Beryl debris cleared from the stream or channel nearest you yet? Here’s how to report fallen trees when you find them blocking waterways. Hurry. Once the equipment is gone, it will be hard to get it back.
Harris County Flood Control District and FEMA contractors have been hard at work for the last two months removing those blockages. But they have 2500 miles of channels to clear. Some of those miles, like those in Kingwood, are difficult to access and they’re massively clogged with debris.
Ensuring debris is removed involves reporting the precise location of blockages which don’t always have street addresses. If your phone doesn’t embed GPS coordinates in images, identify the location on the channel map in Harris County’s Flood Education Mapping Tool.
In many cases, clearing blockages may also involve negotiating rights of access with contractors across homeowner or trail association property. So make sure you inform your associations, too.
How Debris Creates Hidden Flood Threats
On July 8, Beryl bulldozed its way through Houston. The damage was especially bad in the Lake Houston Area. Trees fell on roofs and power lines everywhere. Many homes still await repair, though power has been restored.
But hidden out of sight, are hundreds, if not thousands of trees that fell into our streams and channels, deep in the woods where most people don’t see them. If left in place, these trees can catch others swept downstream in future floods. And the resulting log dams, can back water up into homes, causing even more damage.
And Beryl left a lot of debris.
Removing 350 Tons from One Channel in One Day
Optimal, a FEMA contractor, said they removed 350 tons of debris from one channel in Kings Forest in one day. The work involved several vehicles. That’s 700,000 pounds.
See the pictures below supplied by Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association Director. He took them on on 9/18/24 in Kings Forest and Kingwood Lakes.
The yellow tracked vehicle in the creek cuts logs (right) and wrestles them into another tracked vehicle which hauls them out of the woods.
Here’s what they are up against.
It’s was a messy job. But they removed the threats.
The 12-Ton tracked dump truck hauled the logs and brush to the Kings Forest Pool parking lot.They piled it up for other trucks to take away. It all operated like an assembly line. Or should I say disassembly line?
Some blockages may require bigger equipment which is in shorter supply according to Bloch. In those cases, contractors may have to return later. The main thing is to report all the damage you find to HCFCD now. They still have quite a few Kingwood channel sections to clear. But hurry. Hurricane season is far from over.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/24
2580 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/20240918-Bear-Branch-from-KW-Drive.jpg?fit=1100%2C831&ssl=18311100adminadmin2024-09-21 18:58:502024-09-21 19:15:35Is Beryl Debris Cleared from Your Stream or Channel Yet?
9/20/24 – At City Council Member Fred Flickinger’s town hall meeting last night, discussion of new Lake Houston floodgates consumed a large portion of the meeting. The big news: final design of the gates has started. But design will not finish until the end of 2025. Construction could take another 3-5 years or more. However, enough money is available to get the project started.
During Q&A, several residents expressed surprise and dismay that the project was not further along.
Details of Gates Project from Presentation
Recommendation
The slide below shows the current plan – to add 11 new Tainter gates to the earthen embankment east of the spillway and existing gates. The new gates will bring the total release capacity of the dam up to 80,000 cubic feet per second from 10,000.
Alt 1B in the title of the slide refers to one of several alternatives developed during the preliminary-engineering phase.
Note the gray diagram on the right with the red lettering in the slide above. It shows the gates being installed in a U-shaped structure protruding in front of the existing dam. This eliminates the need for a temporary “coffer” dam in the lake during construction.
Timeline
A review of the timeline when the conceptual plans were first proposed in 2022 showed completion of construction in 2026. Now the City hopes to complete the final design by 2026. Construction could take another 3-5 years beyond that.
Could the schedule slip again? Council Member Flickinger emphasized that FEMA has a final deadline that can’t slip: May 26th of 2026 (18 months from now) for final approval of all the upfront work before construction starts.
However, when FEMA made its initial grant of $50 million for the gates project back in 2019, it said that it required the project to be complete in 3 years, i.e., by 2022.
Complexity Blamed for Delays
Flickinger, who only this year inherited this project, has been trying to accelerate it. He suggested that project complexity and cost uncertainty were the main reasons for delays to date.
The initial recommendation was to add crest gates to the spillway portion of the dam. That would have required lowering the dam several feet before adding gates. However, Public Works could not find any contractors willing to bid on the project. The risk with a 75 year old dam was too high. That required a reboot of the entire project.
With the reboot and a new recommended alternative, came cost uncertainty.
Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounded whether FEMA would support the Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA). Traditionally, FEMA wants benefits to exceed damage repair costs. However on this project costs exceeded benefits – until Dave Martin, Flickinger’s predecessor, convinced FEMA to include “social benefits.”
Social benefits include things like avoidance of disruptions to business, commerce, schools and the area’s tax base. Including those brought the BCA up to 2.88 said Martin in December 2022. Suddenly, that made the project doable again.
The slide below shows how the current costs and funding commitments compare. If we can avoid more delays, there’s a chance we have enough money to complete this project. Otherwise, it’s back to the federal trough.
Projected financial commitments currently exceed projected costs.
But inflation is always a worry. So is overly optimistic estimating, which often happens in the early stages of projects because it generates follow-on work. Plus we’ve had turnover in Houston Public Works with the change in administrations.
Finally, given the number of entities involved (City, Harris County, State, Federal, Coastal Water Authority, engineering companies, legal counsel, etc.), coordination is also an issue.
Example: City Council approval of an inter-local agreement (ILA) on 9/11 with FEMA, Texas Division of Emergency Management, and the Coastal Water Authority. It concerned changes to the scope and recommendations in the project.
The ILA finally cleared the way for the project to move forward. But ILA approval came two months after the Coastal Water Authority approved it. And five months after FEMA and Texas Division of Emergency Management approved it. The City legal department had already approved the changes before they went to CWA, according to Flickinger’s office. So why did we lose half a year before it even got on the Council agenda?
This certainly qualifies as a failure of project management. A single accountable person with the authority to mandate and generate urgency is an opportunity.
I could get no good answers from the City although I have heard concerns expressed about excessive turnover in Public Works associated with new leadership in the department. Regardless, we lost another 6 months. Again. This time, for no good reason.
Flickinger said quite bluntly last night, “We need to do a better job of communicating.”
Appointment of Dan Huberty to CWA Board
In that regard, Mayor Whitmire has appointed Dan Huberty to the Coastal Water Authority Board. Huberty, supported this project since the beginning when he was state rep. He also lives on the lake. So, he will be a valuable advocate. He can help fill that communication gap.
CWA Director Dan Huberty (left) addressed Kingwood Town Hall with Council Member Flickinger (right)
Huberty, like Flickinger, said, “Better communication on activity, status, budget, and schedule is needed.”
Overall, our elected officials emphasized that community participation in the conversation will be important.
Officials also emphasized that community involvement by comments in City Council meetings and in Austin are essential to maintaining urgency.
An estimated 300 people packed the Kingwood Town Hall Meeting
Approximately 300 people attended the Town Hall meeting, which ran 3 hours.
Other Topics, Presenters
Last night’s agenda covered a wide range of topics. In addition to the gates, presentations also included other flood-related topics such as sedimentation, dredging, and sand traps. More on those in another post.
Policing and crime reduction were also discussed. But while fascinating and a large part of the meeting, they are off topic for this blog. So I’ll leave that to others.
At-Large City Council Members Twila Carter and Julian Ramirez also spoke in addition to State Representative Charles Cunningham. So did the heads of several City departments.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Kingwood-2024-TOWN-HALL-SLIDES_Page_06-scaled-e1726876828400.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-09-20 19:03:492024-09-21 13:07:08Design Finally Starting on New Lake Houston Floodgates
Potential New Tropical System Headed Toward Central Gulf
9/22/2024 at 6PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a 2PM update today that warns of an 80% chance of a potential new tropical system forming in the seven days. They give the new tropical system a 40% chance in the next two days. The system is now centered in the northwestern Caribbean between Honduras and Cuba.
However, NHC predicts the storm will track somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle. While it is no immediate threat to Texas, residents should keep an eye on developments in the next few days, they say.
NHC Graphics
Favorable Environmental Conditions
NHC predicts the track will bend east after crossing between the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba.
“Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure,” they say. “Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days…”
Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature.
Later this week, the system should move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and “interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.”
Local Impacts Seen as Limited As of Now
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, said, “The system should lift northward over the Gulf of Mexico by mid to late week. A large upper level low over the southern plains will help draw the tropical system north of northeast toward the US Gulf coast.”
Lindner added that most models are in agreement at this point which makes confidence fairly high. However, he also said, “There may be some small differences in the ultimate track toward the US Gulf coast.”
He concluded, “Guidance also suggests this will be a large tropical system which is capable of moving huge amounts of water in the Gulf.”
“With the current higher than normal fall lunar tides in place, there is some potential for elevated tides along the Texas coast late this week, even for a tropical system passing well to our east.”
Year-to-Date Hurricane Season Behind Average
So far, we have had seven named storms this year:
If this system turns into a named storm, it will become Helene.
Everyone predicted a severe hurricane season this year, but so far, it has not materialized. On average, we have our tenth named storm by now. See below.
All last week, forecasters warned that this storm had a chance of development. And on most days, the chances increased. Keep your eye on this one!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/24
2581 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Is Beryl Debris Cleared from Your Stream or Channel Yet?
9/21/2024 – Is Beryl debris cleared from the stream or channel nearest you yet? Here’s how to report fallen trees when you find them blocking waterways. Hurry. Once the equipment is gone, it will be hard to get it back.
Harris County Flood Control District and FEMA contractors have been hard at work for the last two months removing those blockages. But they have 2500 miles of channels to clear. Some of those miles, like those in Kingwood, are difficult to access and they’re massively clogged with debris.
Ensuring debris is removed involves reporting the precise location of blockages which don’t always have street addresses. If your phone doesn’t embed GPS coordinates in images, identify the location on the channel map in Harris County’s Flood Education Mapping Tool.
In many cases, clearing blockages may also involve negotiating rights of access with contractors across homeowner or trail association property. So make sure you inform your associations, too.
How Debris Creates Hidden Flood Threats
On July 8, Beryl bulldozed its way through Houston. The damage was especially bad in the Lake Houston Area. Trees fell on roofs and power lines everywhere. Many homes still await repair, though power has been restored.
But hidden out of sight, are hundreds, if not thousands of trees that fell into our streams and channels, deep in the woods where most people don’t see them. If left in place, these trees can catch others swept downstream in future floods. And the resulting log dams, can back water up into homes, causing even more damage.
And Beryl left a lot of debris.
Removing 350 Tons from One Channel in One Day
Optimal, a FEMA contractor, said they removed 350 tons of debris from one channel in Kings Forest in one day. The work involved several vehicles. That’s 700,000 pounds.
To put 700,000 pounds in perspective, the average house weighs between 80,000 and 160,000 pounds. So, that’s like removing the equivalent of 5-9 homes blocking a channel every day!
See the pictures below supplied by Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association Director. He took them on on 9/18/24 in Kings Forest and Kingwood Lakes.
Here’s what they are up against.
It’s was a messy job. But they removed the threats.
Some blockages may require bigger equipment which is in shorter supply according to Bloch. In those cases, contractors may have to return later. The main thing is to report all the damage you find to HCFCD now. They still have quite a few Kingwood channel sections to clear. But hurry. Hurricane season is far from over.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/24
2580 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Design Finally Starting on New Lake Houston Floodgates
9/20/24 – At City Council Member Fred Flickinger’s town hall meeting last night, discussion of new Lake Houston floodgates consumed a large portion of the meeting. The big news: final design of the gates has started. But design will not finish until the end of 2025. Construction could take another 3-5 years or more. However, enough money is available to get the project started.
During Q&A, several residents expressed surprise and dismay that the project was not further along.
Details of Gates Project from Presentation
Recommendation
The slide below shows the current plan – to add 11 new Tainter gates to the earthen embankment east of the spillway and existing gates. The new gates will bring the total release capacity of the dam up to 80,000 cubic feet per second from 10,000.
Note the gray diagram on the right with the red lettering in the slide above. It shows the gates being installed in a U-shaped structure protruding in front of the existing dam. This eliminates the need for a temporary “coffer” dam in the lake during construction.
Timeline
A review of the timeline when the conceptual plans were first proposed in 2022 showed completion of construction in 2026. Now the City hopes to complete the final design by 2026. Construction could take another 3-5 years beyond that.
Could the schedule slip again? Council Member Flickinger emphasized that FEMA has a final deadline that can’t slip: May 26th of 2026 (18 months from now) for final approval of all the upfront work before construction starts.
However, when FEMA made its initial grant of $50 million for the gates project back in 2019, it said that it required the project to be complete in 3 years, i.e., by 2022.
Complexity Blamed for Delays
Flickinger, who only this year inherited this project, has been trying to accelerate it. He suggested that project complexity and cost uncertainty were the main reasons for delays to date.
The initial recommendation was to add crest gates to the spillway portion of the dam. That would have required lowering the dam several feet before adding gates. However, Public Works could not find any contractors willing to bid on the project. The risk with a 75 year old dam was too high. That required a reboot of the entire project.
With the reboot and a new recommended alternative, came cost uncertainty.
Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounded whether FEMA would support the Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA). Traditionally, FEMA wants benefits to exceed damage repair costs. However on this project costs exceeded benefits – until Dave Martin, Flickinger’s predecessor, convinced FEMA to include “social benefits.”
Social benefits include things like avoidance of disruptions to business, commerce, schools and the area’s tax base. Including those brought the BCA up to 2.88 said Martin in December 2022. Suddenly, that made the project doable again.
The slide below shows how the current costs and funding commitments compare. If we can avoid more delays, there’s a chance we have enough money to complete this project. Otherwise, it’s back to the federal trough.
But inflation is always a worry. So is overly optimistic estimating, which often happens in the early stages of projects because it generates follow-on work. Plus we’ve had turnover in Houston Public Works with the change in administrations.
Finally, given the number of entities involved (City, Harris County, State, Federal, Coastal Water Authority, engineering companies, legal counsel, etc.), coordination is also an issue.
Example: City Council approval of an inter-local agreement (ILA) on 9/11 with FEMA, Texas Division of Emergency Management, and the Coastal Water Authority. It concerned changes to the scope and recommendations in the project.
The ILA finally cleared the way for the project to move forward. But ILA approval came two months after the Coastal Water Authority approved it. And five months after FEMA and Texas Division of Emergency Management approved it. The City legal department had already approved the changes before they went to CWA, according to Flickinger’s office. So why did we lose half a year before it even got on the Council agenda?
This certainly qualifies as a failure of project management. A single accountable person with the authority to mandate and generate urgency is an opportunity.
I could get no good answers from the City although I have heard concerns expressed about excessive turnover in Public Works associated with new leadership in the department. Regardless, we lost another 6 months. Again. This time, for no good reason.
Flickinger said quite bluntly last night, “We need to do a better job of communicating.”
Appointment of Dan Huberty to CWA Board
In that regard, Mayor Whitmire has appointed Dan Huberty to the Coastal Water Authority Board. Huberty, supported this project since the beginning when he was state rep. He also lives on the lake. So, he will be a valuable advocate. He can help fill that communication gap.
Huberty, like Flickinger, said, “Better communication on activity, status, budget, and schedule is needed.”
Overall, our elected officials emphasized that community participation in the conversation will be important.
Officials also emphasized that community involvement by comments in City Council meetings and in Austin are essential to maintaining urgency.
Approximately 300 people attended the Town Hall meeting, which ran 3 hours.
Other Topics, Presenters
Last night’s agenda covered a wide range of topics. In addition to the gates, presentations also included other flood-related topics such as sedimentation, dredging, and sand traps. More on those in another post.
Presentations also included semi-flood-related topics such as Solid Waste Management and Northpark Expansion, which I have covered amply in other posts.
Policing and crime reduction were also discussed. But while fascinating and a large part of the meeting, they are off topic for this blog. So I’ll leave that to others.
At-Large City Council Members Twila Carter and Julian Ramirez also spoke in addition to State Representative Charles Cunningham. So did the heads of several City departments.
For More Information
To see a video of the entire meeting, click here.
To see the entire slide deck, click here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/2024
2579 Days since Hurricane Harvey