11/05/24 – Rafael morphed from Tropical Depression #18 to a tropical storm in the Caribbean yesterday. And it could become a hurricane by tonight as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.
However, there is a low likelihood Rafael will reach Texas because of an approaching cold front from the northwest. The front will create strong wind sheer.
Also, nearshore waters, cooled by recent storms, will be in the upper seventies/lower eighties – the threshold temperature required to sustain tropical cyclones. So, we can expect weakening as Rafael approaches the Gulf Coast.
Approaching cold front from NWshould block Rafael from reaching Texas.
Forecast Track Still Has High Uncertainty
On the forecast track, Rafael should move near western Jamaica early this afternoon, over the Cayman Islands this evening, and over western Cuba on Wednesday. Once in the Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow, the track becomes far less certain as the storm weakens.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A cold front is expected to sweep off the Texas coast early on Saturday, blocking any potential path toward the Texas coast.” You can see it in the photo above.
The timing of the arrival of the front and the weakening of Rafael will determine the Raphael’s track. As you can see below, models show little agreement at the moment.
Winds Currently at 60 MPH
At 1 PM EST, Rafael had 60 MPH sustained winds and was moving northwest at almost 14 MPH.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts steady to rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Rafael should become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands later today with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
Lindner predicts “Rafael will likely near Category 2 hurricane intensity on approach to Cuba.” Category 1 ranges from 74-95 MPH. Category 2 begins when winds reach 96 MPH.
If Rafael does get close to Houston, we should start to feel its winds late Friday or Saturday.
Rainfall and Surge
NHC predicts rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches. Isolated totals up to 10 inches across higher terrain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
The NHC also expects storm surge of 6-9 feet above normal high tides in the Caymans today. Swells generated by Rafael will affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Stay Aware
Any time a hurricane enters the Gulf, you should keep an eye out. Check the National Hurricane Center website daily until you’re sure the threat has passed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/24
2625 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Rafael-24.11.05.png?fit=1100%2C698&ssl=16981100adminadmin2024-11-05 14:35:262024-11-10 14:39:10TS Rafael Likely to Become Hurricane Tonight Before Weakening in Gulf
11/4/2024 4 PM – The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update indicates that tropical depression 18 has gained tropical storm strength and will be named Rafael. The report also indicates that Rafael, presently located in the south central Caribbean would likely move over:
Jamaica late Monday night as a tropical storm
The Cayman Islands by Tuesday as a hurricane
Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane
The Gulf of Mexico, heading north as a hurricane.
Rafael in center left at 3:40 CSTon 11/4/24
45 MPH Winds at 4PM and Strengthening
As of 4PM today, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. NHC predicts steady-to-rapid strengthening. The system should become a hurricane on Tuesday.
NHC predicts Rafael will drop 3-6 inches of rain with amounts up to 9 inches locally over The Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba. That much will cause flooding and mudslides, they say.
Storm surge in the Caribbean will be 6-9 feet above normal tide levels. Swells generated by the system should affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Models give the storm a 40 percent chance of a 30 kt speed increase in the next 24 hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours.
Track Over Caribbean Highly Uncertain At This Point
Models closely agree on the track of the storm while in the Caribbean but disagree where it will go once it enters the Gulf. There, model solutions diverge. NHC has low confidence in the Gulf of Mexico forecast track. The wide cone currently stretches from Houston to the Florida Panhandle.
The likely wind field will stretch even wider.
If the storm heads toward Houston, the leading edge of the winds could be felt as early as Friday morning.
Likely to Weaken in Gulf
Environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures support intensification. And since the system now has a well organized circulation, NHC has increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist predicts the system’s broad wind field will likely begin to impose along the upper Texas coast by late this week into the weekend. He also predicts that upper level wind shear over the US Gulf coast will likely greatly weaken any tropical system prior to reaching the US coast.
Regardless, check the NHC site often for recent updates and confidence about the track increases.
If Rafael is the last named storm of the season, it would put the total (18) in the range of NHC’s predictions.
Season Now Within Range of Earlier Predictions
Tropical events are rare in the Gulf this time of year but not unheard of. NHC’s climatology page shows many storms starting in the Caribbean during this 10-day period. A subset of those moves into the Gulf while others spin off into the Atlantic.
NHC predicted an above average number of named storms this year. Rafael, at number 18, puts us within the range they predicted.
Eighteen is also above the average number of named storms we receive in a season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/4/24
2624 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Rafael.jpg?fit=1000%2C680&ssl=16801000adminadmin2024-11-04 16:07:582024-11-04 16:07:59Tropical Storm Raphael Heading North
11/3/24 – The latest round of repairs to the understructure of the Tree Lane Bridge in Kingwood has been completed.
In recent years, flooding, erosion from severe storms, stream migration, and insufficiently mitigated upstream development had jeopardized the integrity of the bridge next to Bear Branch Elementary. Approximately 600 children attend Grades K through 5 at the school and dozens of school buses routinely cross over the bridge every school day.
Before Photos
The four pictures below show the starting point.
Imelda flood almost overtopped the bridgeand backed water up.Photo by Chris Bloch.Looking upstream at downstream side of the bridge. Water pressure created a jetting effect that undermined the support structure and eroded the area downstream. Downcutting exposed water line and utility cable.Closer shot shows the power of moving water. Storm drain outfall (right) was pinched off by debristhat broke away.Stormwater had also eaten away the concrete bed that tied supports together.
After Photos
Compare the next five shots taken on 11/3/24.
Upstream is left. Note how stream meander over time has Bens Branch approaching the bridge from a 45 degree angle now.
Meandering streams can impact bridges in a number of ways, including:
Altering flow characteristics: A meander at the upstream of a bridge can change the flow characteristics at the bridge’s inlet and outlet.
Reducing bridge capacity: A meander can reduce the amount of water a bridge can pass during a flood.
Creating channel instability: Channel instability near a bridge can increase the risk of bridge failure during a hydrologic event.
Meandering streams are characterized by their sinuous, snake-like channels. Meanders move sideways and downstream over time, which can create challenges for maintaining bridges and roads.
However, these repairs should improve safety …. at least for a while.
Looking upstream. Note new storm drain outfalls surrounded by concrete on the left and right.Note how the side slopes change from 45º to 90º about three feet above the bottom of the channel.
The stream bed was previously at where the wall angle changes. The area between the 90º walls represents additional carrying capacity (conveyance) for the channel under the bridge.
Also note, in the picture above, the addition of at least five new rounded piers to increase support for the bridge’s road bed. The old piers are square.
Storm sewer outfall is now at an angle. Same on the opposite side.
According to ChatGPT, “Storm sewer outfalls are often angled when they enter a stream to help manage the flow of water and sediment, reduce erosion, and improve the overall stability of the stream bank.”
Also note in this shot by Chris Bloch how contractors hydromulched slopes and areas disturbed by construction.
Hydromulching should reduce erosion from water flowing over the top of the channel bank.
Thanks to Houston Public Works and the City of Houston for these repairs. I’ll check to see how these improvements work in future storms.
For More Information
For a history of the project and to see additional photos, see these previous posts:
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/20241103-DJI_20241103083715_0140_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-11-03 12:06:442024-11-03 18:09:57Before-After Pics of 2024 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
TS Rafael Likely to Become Hurricane Tonight Before Weakening in Gulf
11/05/24 – Rafael morphed from Tropical Depression #18 to a tropical storm in the Caribbean yesterday. And it could become a hurricane by tonight as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.
However, there is a low likelihood Rafael will reach Texas because of an approaching cold front from the northwest. The front will create strong wind sheer.
Also, nearshore waters, cooled by recent storms, will be in the upper seventies/lower eighties – the threshold temperature required to sustain tropical cyclones. So, we can expect weakening as Rafael approaches the Gulf Coast.
Forecast Track Still Has High Uncertainty
On the forecast track, Rafael should move near western Jamaica early this afternoon, over the Cayman Islands this evening, and over western Cuba on Wednesday. Once in the Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow, the track becomes far less certain as the storm weakens.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A cold front is expected to sweep off the Texas coast early on Saturday, blocking any potential path toward the Texas coast.” You can see it in the photo above.
The timing of the arrival of the front and the weakening of Rafael will determine the Raphael’s track. As you can see below, models show little agreement at the moment.
Winds Currently at 60 MPH
At 1 PM EST, Rafael had 60 MPH sustained winds and was moving northwest at almost 14 MPH.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts steady to rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Rafael should become a hurricane as it
passes near the Cayman Islands later today with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
Lindner predicts “Rafael will likely near Category 2 hurricane intensity on approach to Cuba.” Category 1 ranges from 74-95 MPH. Category 2 begins when winds reach 96 MPH.
If Rafael does get close to Houston, we should start to feel its winds late Friday or Saturday.
Rainfall and Surge
NHC predicts rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches. Isolated totals up to 10 inches across higher terrain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
The NHC also expects storm surge of 6-9 feet above normal high tides in the Caymans today. Swells generated by Rafael will affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Stay Aware
Any time a hurricane enters the Gulf, you should keep an eye out. Check the National Hurricane Center website daily until you’re sure the threat has passed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/24
2625 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Storm Raphael Heading North
11/4/2024 4 PM – The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update indicates that tropical depression 18 has gained tropical storm strength and will be named Rafael. The report also indicates that Rafael, presently located in the south central Caribbean would likely move over:
45 MPH Winds at 4PM and Strengthening
As of 4PM today, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. NHC predicts steady-to-rapid strengthening. The system should become a hurricane on Tuesday.
NHC predicts Rafael will drop 3-6 inches of rain with amounts up to 9 inches locally over The Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba. That much will cause flooding and mudslides, they say.
Storm surge in the Caribbean will be 6-9 feet above normal tide levels. Swells generated by the system should affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Models give the storm a 40 percent chance of a 30 kt speed increase in the next 24 hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours.
Track Over Caribbean Highly Uncertain At This Point
Models closely agree on the track of the storm while in the Caribbean but disagree where it will go once it enters the Gulf. There, model solutions diverge. NHC has low confidence in the Gulf of Mexico forecast track. The wide cone currently stretches from Houston to the Florida Panhandle.
The likely wind field will stretch even wider.
If the storm heads toward Houston, the leading edge of the winds could be felt as early as Friday morning.
Likely to Weaken in Gulf
Environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures support intensification. And since the system now has a well organized circulation, NHC has increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist predicts the system’s broad wind field will likely begin to impose along the upper Texas coast by late this week into the weekend. He also predicts that upper level wind shear over the US Gulf coast will likely greatly weaken any tropical system prior to reaching the US coast.
Regardless, check the NHC site often for recent updates and confidence about the track increases.
If Rafael is the last named storm of the season, it would put the total (18) in the range of NHC’s predictions.
Season Now Within Range of Earlier Predictions
Tropical events are rare in the Gulf this time of year but not unheard of. NHC’s climatology page shows many storms starting in the Caribbean during this 10-day period. A subset of those moves into the Gulf while others spin off into the Atlantic.
NHC predicted an above average number of named storms this year. Rafael, at number 18, puts us within the range they predicted.
Eighteen is also above the average number of named storms we receive in a season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/4/24
2624 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Before-After Pics of 2024 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
11/3/24 – The latest round of repairs to the understructure of the Tree Lane Bridge in Kingwood has been completed.
In recent years, flooding, erosion from severe storms, stream migration, and insufficiently mitigated upstream development had jeopardized the integrity of the bridge next to Bear Branch Elementary. Approximately 600 children attend Grades K through 5 at the school and dozens of school buses routinely cross over the bridge every school day.
Before Photos
The four pictures below show the starting point.
After Photos
Compare the next five shots taken on 11/3/24.
Meandering streams can impact bridges in a number of ways, including:
Meandering streams are characterized by their sinuous, snake-like channels. Meanders move sideways and downstream over time, which can create challenges for maintaining bridges and roads.
However, these repairs should improve safety …. at least for a while.
The stream bed was previously at where the wall angle changes. The area between the 90º walls represents additional carrying capacity (conveyance) for the channel under the bridge.
Also note, in the picture above, the addition of at least five new rounded piers to increase support for the bridge’s road bed. The old piers are square.
According to ChatGPT, “Storm sewer outfalls are often angled when they enter a stream to help manage the flow of water and sediment, reduce erosion, and improve the overall stability of the stream bank.”
Also note in this shot by Chris Bloch how contractors hydromulched slopes and areas disturbed by construction.
Hydromulching should reduce erosion from water flowing over the top of the channel bank.
Thanks to Houston Public Works and the City of Houston for these repairs. I’ll check to see how these improvements work in future storms.
For More Information
For a history of the project and to see additional photos, see these previous posts:
10/12/24 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Nearing Completion
8/11/24 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Finally Starting Again, Hopefully for Last Time
6/28/24 Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started
4/9/24 City Begins Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
2/21/24 CoH Public Works Kicks Off Tree Lane Bridge Rehab Project
11/28/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch Still Standing
6/12/23 Flood Damage To Tree Lane Bridge Over Ben’s Branch Accelerates
1/29/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch Damaged…Again
3/21/22 How Insufficiently Mitigated Upstream Development Imposes Taxation without Representation on Downstream Residents
3/31/20 City Completes Repairs on Tree Lane Bridge, But Concerns Remain
2/29/20 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch: Before and After Repairs
12/2/19 Tree Lane Bridge vs. Power of Moving Water
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/3/24
2623 Days since Hurricane Harvey