Hurricane season officially ended yesterday, November 30. 2022 turned out to be an average season, not the above-normal season that was predicted. No storms affected Houston. But Category 4 Ian slammed the West Coast of Florida, killing at least 144 people.
Hurricane Ian as seen from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite on Sept. 27, 2022 at 4:26 p.m. (EDT) in the Gulf of Mexico.
Four U.S. Landfalls
The 2022 season saw four hurricane landfalls in the U.S.:
Category 4 Ian with 150 mph maximum sustained winds, tied for the fifth-strongest hurricane ever to landfall in the U.S.
Ian made landfall a second time in Georgetown, SC as a Category 1.
Category 1 Hurricane Nicole made landfall in north Hutchinson Island, Florida.
Hurricane Fiona made landfall near Punta Tocon, Puerto Rico as a Cat 1. It dumped 27 inches on the island still struggling to recover from Hurricane Maria in 2017. Fiona later intensified to a Cat 4 as it headed north.
Unusual Mid-Season Pause
According to the National Hurricane Center, this unique season was defined by a rare mid-season pause. Scientists suspect the causes were increased wind shear and suppressed atmospheric moisture high over the Atlantic Ocean.
After a quiet August, activity ramped up in September with seven named storms, including the two major hurricanes — Fiona and Ian. The season also included a rare late-season storm with Hurricane Nicole making landfall on November 10 along the east coast of Florida.
Forecasting “Firsts”
National Hurricane Center forecasts were aided by the experimental peak storm surge graphic, which allowed forecasters to more accurately communicate the severity of expected storm surge levels.
Another major first included the successful launch of the Altius 600 small uncrewed aircraft system from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft into the core of Ian hours before its landfall. It discovered 216 mph winds at an altitude of 2,150 feet.
Three major take-aways from this thought-provoking article were:
How older people die in disproportionate numbers from hurricanes
The difficulty of evacuating densely populated areas.
Public policy implications of the two points above.
Disproportionate Harm to Older People
Pulver’s article pointed out that, “The median age of Ian’s victims was 72 in Florida, a haven for retirees. More than 61% of the victims whose ages are known were 65 or over. Nearly half had medical conditions that contributed to their deaths.”
The USA Today analysis found that 60 people drowned and that preexisting medical conditions contributed to at least 30 deaths. At least 85 victims were 65 or older.
People Still Dying Despite Better Forecasts
Part of the problem relates to perceptions of risk. Older people are choosing to live in unsafe areas in ever increasing numbers.
The percentage of Florida’s population over 65 in coastal counties is predicted to jump from 16% to 37% by 2100. Over the past 20 years, the percentage of Florida residents aged 65 and older has increased from 17.6% to 21%. This complicates disaster planning and places extra burdens on first responders.
Pulver quotes Amber Silver, a disaster researcher at the University of Albany, as saying, “We have to look at policy failures. When you have vulnerable people living in vulnerable regions, in vulnerable infrastructure being exposed to these storms, you’re going to continue to have these shocking death counts – particularly among the most vulnerable. Until we address this challenge at a systemic, societal level, it’s not going to get better.”
Difficulty of Evacuation Points to Need for Better Floodplain and Building Regulations
Even with perfect forecasts, evacuation decisions remain difficult. Where do you go if you’re at the tip of a low-lying peninsula like Florida, hundreds of miles from higher ground.
Here in Houston, half of the 120 deaths during Rita in 2005 happened during evacuation attempts. Millions fled the Cat 5 storm bearing down on them with 180 mph winds – just weeks after Katrina destroyed New Orleans. Millions of panicked people created gridlock on the freeways.
Such examples create a powerful argument for focusing on better building and floodplain regulations. That battle is won or lost between storms.
We must focus more on creating survivable structures in survivable locations.
But people seem to like affordable homes with water views and living with the risk right up to minute they can’t.
Regardless, Pulver points out that far fewer people die today than, say in the great Galveston hurricane of 1900, which killed an estimated 8000 people. So, we are making some progress.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/1/2022
1920 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/IMAGE-Hurricane-Ian-20222701556_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-5000x3000-1.jpg?fit=1275%2C717&ssl=17171275adminadmin2022-12-01 14:06:482022-12-01 14:26:06Hurricane Season Ends!
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) released its November report on Flood-Bond progress to Commissioners Court yesterday. The report covered through October 2022. I had two major take-aways:
The slowdown in bond spending continues. HCFCD initiated no new construction projects during the month of October.
HCFCD spent more money on buyouts than flood reduction.
The major announcement: the District advertised bids for the construction of a stormwater detention basin in Inwood Forest. The project encompasses property owned by the City of Houston located both east and west of Antoine where Vogel Creek outfalls into White Oak Bayou (the old Inwood Forest Golf Course). It will eventually have a total of 12 interconnected compartments.
Funding of this project comes from the 2018 Bond, FEMA and the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM). HCFCD hopes construction will begin in winter 2022-23. But let’s look at what has happened, instead of what will.
Overview
Since the last update, HCFCD:
Awarded NO construction projects
Awarded 9 non-construction agreements totaling $33 million
Paid $1.2 million for professional services.
Completed 28 home buyouts valued at approximately $5 million
Spent a total of $9.9 million since the last update.
Those last two bullet points mean…
HCFCD spent more on buyouts than flood reduction in the month of October.
HCFCD uses some buyouts for right-of-way (ROW) acquisition to build detention ponds or widen channels. But many buyouts simply avoid repetitive losses. The latest update does not specify which category October buyouts fell into.
Schedule performance indicators (the SPI index) for the month remained at .95 – behind schedule. HCFCD says the bond program is 23.8% completed – an increase of 0.3% from the previous month. That’s at 50 months out of a planned 120 month program or 41.6% of the way into the bond program.
Where the Money Has Gone
Only three projects out of 181 in the Bond changed stages. One went into preliminary engineering and two went from preliminary engineering into right-of-way acquisition. All are in the Cedar Bayou watershed.
The map below shows where $1.14 billion spent to date has gone.
In table form, that looks like this. I provided three months of data so you can see whether the needle is moving in your watershed. Five watersheds received no money in October.
Spending changes by watershed for the last three months.
October’s $9.9 million was only slightly better than September.
Project Phasing Influences Spending Rates
Projects typically go through phases that comprise different percentages of the total budget. In flood control, upfront spending on studies typically comprises only 13% of the total. The big spending – 79% – happens for right-of-way acquisition and construction. Looking back at all phases of all projects since 2000…
Right-of-Way Acquisition and Construction account for almost four out of every five dollars spent by HCFCD.
Here’s how the breakdown looks:
Data compiled from FOIA Request
HCFCD typically spends six times more on Rights-of-Way and Construction, than upfront Feasibility Studies, Preliminary Engineering Reviews and Design.
More than four years into the bond, many projects should be entering the more expensive phases. So you would expect spending to increase. And July totals reflected that. But then a precipitous decline set in.
At the current spend rate, it would take 32 years to complete the bond, not 6.
Why the Slowdown?
HCFCD has not yet explained the slowdown except to say that, during the course of major programs like the Flood Bond, sometimes you hit lulls between major projects. But this slowdown has persisted for three months. No construction projects started last month. And Inwood-Forest stormwater-detention-basin construction likely won’t start for several more months.
Management Turnover – HCFCD recently lost its top three leaders who architected the Flood Bond: Russ Poppe, Matt Zeve, and Alan Black.
Less Experienced Management – Poppe was replaced by an academic who formerly managed the Subsidence District which has a budget one-thousandth the size of the 2018 flood bond.
More Layers of Management – There’s now a whole new department – County Administration – between Flood Control and Commissioners Court.
Bottom line: County Judge Lina Hidalgo needs to provide an explanation for the slowdown. This affects all Harris County residents, not just those in particular watersheds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/30/2022
1919 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Screenshot-2022-11-30-at-12.42.00-PM.png?fit=1270%2C954&ssl=19541270adminadmin2022-11-30 12:54:322022-11-30 13:06:15HCFCD Spending Slows; More Went to Buyouts than Flood Reduction
On the morning of 11/29/22, Humble ISD contractors finished demolishing the last walls of the old KMS (Kingwood Middle School). They were also draining a water tower on the property before taking that down. The next two steps: remove all the debris and start removing the foundation.
New athletic fields and a permanent larger detention pond will go where the old school was and frame the entrance of the new school.
Photo from Start of Demolition
Here’s what the extent of demolition looked like on 11/9/22.
Pictures Taken at 9:30 A.M. on 11/29/22
For comparison, here’s what it looked like today. New KMS is in background; old KMS in foreground.
KMS today. Looking back E from SW corner of property.Wide shot taken from the SE corner of the old KMS looking NW toward Woodland Hills Drive.A parade of trucks hauls away the debris after recyclables such as steel are separated.The giant claws pick girders from the rubble and stack them for separate removal.Note the hole punctured in the school’s water tank.Other steel parts will also be recycled.
Starting Year Three of Project
For photos showing the progress of KMS construction and demolition, see below.
The illustration below shows next steps. After removing the foundation of the old building (2A), contractors will excavate a larger, permanent detention basin to hold stormwater runoff from the property. The runoff will then be released at a slower rate to reduce the risk of overwhelming the neighborhood’s drainage system. That will reduce the risk of flooding.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/20221129-DJI_0466.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2022-11-29 10:53:032022-11-29 11:19:46Old KMS Down, But Not Yet Out
Hurricane Season Ends!
Hurricane season officially ended yesterday, November 30. 2022 turned out to be an average season, not the above-normal season that was predicted. No storms affected Houston. But Category 4 Ian slammed the West Coast of Florida, killing at least 144 people.
Four U.S. Landfalls
The 2022 season saw four hurricane landfalls in the U.S.:
Unusual Mid-Season Pause
According to the National Hurricane Center, this unique season was defined by a rare mid-season pause. Scientists suspect the causes were increased wind shear and suppressed atmospheric moisture high over the Atlantic Ocean.
After a quiet August, activity ramped up in September with seven named storms, including the two major hurricanes — Fiona and Ian. The season also included a rare late-season storm with Hurricane Nicole making landfall on November 10 along the east coast of Florida.
Forecasting “Firsts”
National Hurricane Center forecasts were aided by the experimental peak storm surge graphic, which allowed forecasters to more accurately communicate the severity of expected storm surge levels.
Another major first included the successful launch of the Altius 600 small uncrewed aircraft system from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft into the core of Ian hours before its landfall. It discovered 216 mph winds at an altitude of 2,150 feet.
Why Predictable Storms Still Kill So Many People
USA Today published an exceptionally well-researched and written article by Dinah Boyles Pulver to mark the end of hurricane season. The headline: “Ian was deadliest US storm this year, with at least 144 dead. Why are predictable storms still killing so many people?”
Three major take-aways from this thought-provoking article were:
Disproportionate Harm to Older People
Pulver’s article pointed out that, “The median age of Ian’s victims was 72 in Florida, a haven for retirees. More than 61% of the victims whose ages are known were 65 or over. Nearly half had medical conditions that contributed to their deaths.”
The USA Today analysis found that 60 people drowned and that preexisting medical conditions contributed to at least 30 deaths. At least 85 victims were 65 or older.
People Still Dying Despite Better Forecasts
Part of the problem relates to perceptions of risk. Older people are choosing to live in unsafe areas in ever increasing numbers.
The percentage of Florida’s population over 65 in coastal counties is predicted to jump from 16% to 37% by 2100. Over the past 20 years, the percentage of Florida residents aged 65 and older has increased from 17.6% to 21%. This complicates disaster planning and places extra burdens on first responders.
Pulver quotes Amber Silver, a disaster researcher at the University of Albany, as saying, “We have to look at policy failures. When you have vulnerable people living in vulnerable regions, in vulnerable infrastructure being exposed to these storms, you’re going to continue to have these shocking death counts – particularly among the most vulnerable. Until we address this challenge at a systemic, societal level, it’s not going to get better.”
Difficulty of Evacuation Points to Need for Better Floodplain and Building Regulations
Even with perfect forecasts, evacuation decisions remain difficult. Where do you go if you’re at the tip of a low-lying peninsula like Florida, hundreds of miles from higher ground.
Here in Houston, half of the 120 deaths during Rita in 2005 happened during evacuation attempts. Millions fled the Cat 5 storm bearing down on them with 180 mph winds – just weeks after Katrina destroyed New Orleans. Millions of panicked people created gridlock on the freeways.
Such examples create a powerful argument for focusing on better building and floodplain regulations. That battle is won or lost between storms.
But people seem to like affordable homes with water views and living with the risk right up to minute they can’t.
Regardless, Pulver points out that far fewer people die today than, say in the great Galveston hurricane of 1900, which killed an estimated 8000 people. So, we are making some progress.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/1/2022
1920 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
HCFCD Spending Slows; More Went to Buyouts than Flood Reduction
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) released its November report on Flood-Bond progress to Commissioners Court yesterday. The report covered through October 2022. I had two major take-aways:
The major announcement: the District advertised bids for the construction of a stormwater detention basin in Inwood Forest. The project encompasses property owned by the City of Houston located both east and west of Antoine where Vogel Creek outfalls into White Oak Bayou (the old Inwood Forest Golf Course). It will eventually have a total of 12 interconnected compartments.
Funding of this project comes from the 2018 Bond, FEMA and the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM). HCFCD hopes construction will begin in winter 2022-23. But let’s look at what has happened, instead of what will.
Overview
Since the last update, HCFCD:
Those last two bullet points mean…
HCFCD uses some buyouts for right-of-way (ROW) acquisition to build detention ponds or widen channels. But many buyouts simply avoid repetitive losses. The latest update does not specify which category October buyouts fell into.
Schedule performance indicators (the SPI index) for the month remained at .95 – behind schedule. HCFCD says the bond program is 23.8% completed – an increase of 0.3% from the previous month. That’s at 50 months out of a planned 120 month program or 41.6% of the way into the bond program.
Where the Money Has Gone
Only three projects out of 181 in the Bond changed stages. One went into preliminary engineering and two went from preliminary engineering into right-of-way acquisition. All are in the Cedar Bayou watershed.
The map below shows where $1.14 billion spent to date has gone.
In table form, that looks like this. I provided three months of data so you can see whether the needle is moving in your watershed. Five watersheds received no money in October.
Spending Trend Still Down
Last month I wrote about this downward trend in bond spending at a time when it should be increasing. Notice the trend in recent months:
Project Phasing Influences Spending Rates
Projects typically go through phases that comprise different percentages of the total budget. In flood control, upfront spending on studies typically comprises only 13% of the total. The big spending – 79% – happens for right-of-way acquisition and construction. Looking back at all phases of all projects since 2000…
Here’s how the breakdown looks:
HCFCD typically spends six times more on Rights-of-Way and Construction, than upfront Feasibility Studies, Preliminary Engineering Reviews and Design.
More than four years into the bond, many projects should be entering the more expensive phases. So you would expect spending to increase. And July totals reflected that. But then a precipitous decline set in.
Why the Slowdown?
HCFCD has not yet explained the slowdown except to say that, during the course of major programs like the Flood Bond, sometimes you hit lulls between major projects. But this slowdown has persisted for three months. No construction projects started last month. And Inwood-Forest stormwater-detention-basin construction likely won’t start for several more months.
At this point, explanations are in order. Last month, I suggested several:
Management Turnover – HCFCD recently lost its top three leaders who architected the Flood Bond: Russ Poppe, Matt Zeve, and Alan Black.
Less Experienced Management – Poppe was replaced by an academic who formerly managed the Subsidence District which has a budget one-thousandth the size of the 2018 flood bond.
More Layers of Management – There’s now a whole new department – County Administration – between Flood Control and Commissioners Court.
Delays in Other Departments – Community Services has failed to submit a plan for how to spend $750 million allocated to Harris County for flood mitigation by the Texas General Land Office and HUD.
Drawdown of Flood Resilience Trust Funds – The County is already running out of money in the Flood Resilience Trust Fund – a backup to keep projects moving in case grants, such as the $750 million, were delayed.
Yesterday HCFCD recommended pursuing a grant for Greens Bayou that would consume the current balance in the Flood Resilience Trust.
Bottom line: County Judge Lina Hidalgo needs to provide an explanation for the slowdown. This affects all Harris County residents, not just those in particular watersheds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/30/2022
1919 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Old KMS Down, But Not Yet Out
On the morning of 11/29/22, Humble ISD contractors finished demolishing the last walls of the old KMS (Kingwood Middle School). They were also draining a water tower on the property before taking that down. The next two steps: remove all the debris and start removing the foundation.
New athletic fields and a permanent larger detention pond will go where the old school was and frame the entrance of the new school.
Photo from Start of Demolition
Here’s what the extent of demolition looked like on 11/9/22.
Pictures Taken at 9:30 A.M. on 11/29/22
For comparison, here’s what it looked like today. New KMS is in background; old KMS in foreground.
Starting Year Three of Project
For photos showing the progress of KMS construction and demolition, see below.
Next Steps
The illustration below shows next steps. After removing the foundation of the old building (2A), contractors will excavate a larger, permanent detention basin to hold stormwater runoff from the property. The runoff will then be released at a slower rate to reduce the risk of overwhelming the neighborhood’s drainage system. That will reduce the risk of flooding.
The next step: rebuild the athletic fields (2B).
Check back frequently for updates.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/29/22
1918 Days since Hurricane Harvey