An article in the New York Times asserts that flood-risk perception is altering migration patterns among retirees. by by Susan B. Garland titled “Do you really want to rebuild at 80? Rethinking Where To Retire?” describes changes in where many older people choose to retire. The lead say, “It’s a small yet noticeable shift, experts say — but climate change is causing retirees to start reconsidering moves to disaster-prone dream locales.”
Basic Premise
Safety concerns are causing retirees to rethink whether they really want beach-front views. The author interviewed real estate brokers, retirees, and demographers.
One broker told her, ““At first, they will say they want big views and deep water, but then they ask whether a hurricane or a nor’easter will wipe out the dock. They want to be on the water but more protected.”
Anecdotal Evidence Backed by Wharton Study of 1.4 Million Sales
University of Pennsylvania study of 1.4 million home sales along Florida coasts confirmed the anecdotal account. Researchers found that the sales volume on land less than six feet above sea level dropped by up to 20 percent between 2013 and 2018. “Prices on homes in riskier areas declined between 2018 and 2020,” says Garland. Meanwhile, sales rose on higher, less-vulnerable coastal land farther inland.
The biggest declines came from areas in the northeast that had been hit by Superstorm Sandy. The study’s lead author, Prof. Benjamin Keyes in the finance department at Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, said, “On one hand, you have a strong demographic pull of baby boomers who are looking for warmer climate, and on the other hand, there is a newfound appreciation of climate risks.”
Frailty Makes Evac More Difficult
The caution of retirees may result from physical impairment. It’s also more difficult to rebuild when you’re 80 than when you’re 40.
Two thirds of those who died when Hurricane Ian struck Florida in September were older than 60, says Garland. She added, “Frailty and cognitive impairments make it difficult for older people to evacuate and prepare their homes for disasters.”
I would agree with that. The single largest cluster of fatalities in the Lake Houston Area resulting from Hurricane Harvey happened at a retirement community where 12 people died. They ranged in age up to 95.
Residents trying to escape as Harvey’s floodwaters rose
Garland’s well-written and researched article then goes into ways to assess climate risks and plan financially for them.
The perception that climate risk is increasing seems to be driving the concerns of retirees. And as the old saying in marketing goes, “perception is reality.” It’s something sellers must deal with.
Trends Crashing Head On
In the case of Florida real estate, two trends are meeting head on, says a professor of sociology at Florida State University in Tallahassee. “Two trends we know are happening — the impact of climate change at the same time the world is aging,” Dr. Hauer said. “Those two trends, I’m afraid, will crash head-on, and we will see more catastrophic impacts than if either one had happened.”
It’s unclear whether the same trends are affecting the Houston market. We don’t get as many hurricanes as Florida. And people move here mainly for jobs. Then they may stay here to retire. If you have personal or professional knowledge of this trend in Houston, please contact me.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/25/22 based on a New York Times article by Susan Garland
1914 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/KVE-2017-Flood.jpg?fit=1500%2C968&ssl=19681500adminadmin2022-11-25 18:20:572022-11-27 18:30:44Flood-Risk Perception Altering Migration of Retirees
Rainfall predictions associated with approaching Thanksgiving storms keep increasing. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist now says approaching storms will bring widespread impacts from Thursday through Saturday. He also warns that heavy rainfall may lead to street flooding and rises on area creeks/bayous. Models now show a band of 5-7 inches of rain in places.
Thursday
Lindner says a surface warm front will approach the upper TX coast early Thursday and move inland. He expects showers to increase in coverage and intensity near the front, which may approach the US 59 corridor by midday before slowing and potentially stalling Thursday afternoon.
Along and south of the warm front be prepared for isolated severe storms and excessive rainfall with inflow off the Gulf. All the elements are in place for flash flooding “and warm fronts are notorious in these sort of setups for producing excessive rainfall,” says Lindner.
The best case for inland areas is that the warm front is held closer to the coast.
Friday – Saturday
Models have now slowed down the movement of an upper level low to our west. Lindner now predicts a break in the rainfall Friday morning, before another round of widespread, heavy rains move back into the area Friday afternoon and evening.
Expect grounds to become increasingly saturated and runoff to increase. Showers may linger into midday Saturday, before this system finally exits to the east.
Rainfall Amounts
Predicted rainfall associated with the Thanksgiving storms has increased compared to earlier forecasts. That’s because of the potential for slow moving and training thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and the longer duration of rainfall now expected into Friday and Saturday.
Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected on Thursday afternoon with isolated totals upwards of 5-6 inches.
Some models show a band of 5-7 inches near the warm front Thursday afternoon and this is concerning.
Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches may be possible Thursday afternoon and this will lead to rapid street flooding and significant rises on creeks and bayous.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected Friday/Saturday on top of what falls on Thursday and this will only worsen ongoing run-off from the Thursday rainfall.
Runoff
Soils are primed for run-off with recent wetting rainfall over the region. Our main concern is street flooding, but Lindner cautions us about the potential for significant rises on area watersheds, especially if the higher totals are realized in portions of Harris County.
His greatest concern is for the southern and southeastern portions of Harris County where soils are the wettest and potential rainfall the highest. But he still isn’t confident enough to pinpoint the exact locations of the highest rainfall.
He says most watersheds can handle 3-4 inches. But if we start to exceed 5 inches, the concern for flooding from the bayous and creeks listed below will increase.
IF 5-7 inches, streams most in danger of flooding will be:
Clear Creek and its tributaries
Armand Bayou
Hunting Bayou
Halls Bayou (upper around I-45)
Little Cypress Creek
Willow Creek
South Mayde Creek (lower near Greenhouse)
Keegans Bayou (lower near Beltway 8/US 59/Wilcrest area)
Willow Waterhole
Brickhouse Gully
Spring Branch Creeks (Spring Branch, Buttermilk, Briar Branch)
If you’re out and about over the holidays, remember. Be wary of underpasses and bridges. If you can’t see the roadway, you don’t know how deep the water is. Turn around and don’t drown.
Also remember. Seven inches was the amount of rain Woodridge Village received on May 7, 2019. Woodridge now has much more stormwater detention capacity. But there are plenty of other clearcut areas around the area that don’t have much if any yet.
During Lina Hidalgo’s first term, hundreds of millions of dollars in flood-mitigation projects went to low-income watersheds while the Lake Houston Area went begging. So what does the recent election mean for the area’s flood-mitigation goals and strategies? What can we do to reduce flood risk with the deck stacked even further against us? It’s time to hit the flood-mitigation reset button.
Before the election, Democrats insisted that they still intended to complete all the projects in the 2018 Flood Bond. But now with a super-majority on Commissioner’s Court, they have the power to spend that money wherever they want with impunity.
We need to regroup and develop new strategies to attain our goals. We can no longer afford to rely so much on Harris County.
Understanding the Process
Flood mitigation has political, technical and financial aspects. They all demand coordination. After Harvey, Guy Sconzo, former superintendent of Humble ISD, and the Lake Houston Area Chamber formed a task force with area leaders to identify the causes of flooding and work toward solutions.
After initial successes, sadly, Sconzo died. It happened shortly after the passage of the 2018 Harris County Flood Bond and the State’s Flood Infrastructure Fund. Not long thereafter, the task force disbanded. People assumed that projects would just happen. They didn’t.
Roadblocks since Harvey
No one fully understood how long the process would take, all the steps that were involved, how much projects could ultimately cost, the intense competition for funding, and how projects could languish without a coordinated effort to remove roadblocks as they arose.
We must overcome our addiction to expectations of fair treatment and learn that we must fight for our homes and safety. We must become masters of our own fate and hit the flood-mitigation reset button now. So, what to do?
These are my personal recommendations.
Re-constitute the Lake Houston Area Task Force
Educate people about the risk they still face.
Acknowledge that most of our problems originate outside the county.
Update and prioritize our goals.
Acknowledge we can’t achieve them alone and work to build bridges to those who can help.
Coordinate with them and Harris County Flood Control.
Don’t count on Harris County for much help.
Finish studies already started (i.e., Taylor Gully, Atascocita).
Check on progress of all projects monthly to ensure next steps (i.e., construction bidding) happen promptly.
Identify roadblocks and work to overcome them.
Search for alternative funding and partners if necessary. UPFRONT!
Stop assuming projects will manage themselves. Hire a project manager to report monthly to the reconstituted task force.
Starting Points
Harris County Flood Control District began engineering studies long before Harvey for the projects you now see in construction. Then, when Harvey hit and voters passed the 2018 flood bond, they were ready to go.
Other areas had to start from scratch and are still running the gauntlet of feasibility, preliminary engineering, final engineering, and environmental studies.
In the the Lake Houston Area:
HCFCD started four drainage studies and finished three (Kingwood, Huffman, Cosby). Atascocita is still underway.
San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group finished its preliminary report.
Who is ensuring that engineering studies consider realistic funding alternatives? How much time, effort and money have we wasted by working in silos? Maybe a renewed Lake Houston Area Flood Task Force could help with those issues.
We need earmarks for funding at the state level. But who will fight for them? How will our representatives and senators know what to fight for? And how much the projects cost?
Any area with a completed study should have a project moving forward and be looking for funding. If it doesn’t, then someone is messing up the process.
It will only be Lake Houston’s turn if someone or some group advocates for the area as they did after Harvey.
The good news in all this is that a preliminary meeting of area leaders on the City, County, State and Federal levels was held on November 8th at Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s office. Everyone attending agreed on the need to reconstitute the Task Force and hit the flood-mitigation reset button. The group also examined a number of possible issues to focus on. More news on the new Task Force as it begins to set priorities.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/22/2022with thanks to Dr. Charles Campbell for the post’s photo.
1911 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Campbell-sunrise-12_3_18-small.jpg?fit=1500%2C1114&ssl=111141500adminadmin2022-11-22 18:52:202022-11-22 21:24:31Time for Lake Houston Area to Hit Flood-Mitigation Reset Button
Flood-Risk Perception Altering Migration of Retirees
An article in the New York Times asserts that flood-risk perception is altering migration patterns among retirees. by by Susan B. Garland titled “Do you really want to rebuild at 80? Rethinking Where To Retire?” describes changes in where many older people choose to retire. The lead say, “It’s a small yet noticeable shift, experts say — but climate change is causing retirees to start reconsidering moves to disaster-prone dream locales.”
Basic Premise
Safety concerns are causing retirees to rethink whether they really want beach-front views. The author interviewed real estate brokers, retirees, and demographers.
One broker told her, ““At first, they will say they want big views and deep water, but then they ask whether a hurricane or a nor’easter will wipe out the dock. They want to be on the water but more protected.”
Anecdotal Evidence Backed by Wharton Study of 1.4 Million Sales
University of Pennsylvania study of 1.4 million home sales along Florida coasts confirmed the anecdotal account. Researchers found that the sales volume on land less than six feet above sea level dropped by up to 20 percent between 2013 and 2018. “Prices on homes in riskier areas declined between 2018 and 2020,” says Garland. Meanwhile, sales rose on higher, less-vulnerable coastal land farther inland.
The biggest declines came from areas in the northeast that had been hit by Superstorm Sandy. The study’s lead author, Prof. Benjamin Keyes in the finance department at Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, said, “On one hand, you have a strong demographic pull of baby boomers who are looking for warmer climate, and on the other hand, there is a newfound appreciation of climate risks.”
Frailty Makes Evac More Difficult
The caution of retirees may result from physical impairment. It’s also more difficult to rebuild when you’re 80 than when you’re 40.
Two thirds of those who died when Hurricane Ian struck Florida in September were older than 60, says Garland. She added, “Frailty and cognitive impairments make it difficult for older people to evacuate and prepare their homes for disasters.”
I would agree with that. The single largest cluster of fatalities in the Lake Houston Area resulting from Hurricane Harvey happened at a retirement community where 12 people died. They ranged in age up to 95.
Garland’s well-written and researched article then goes into ways to assess climate risks and plan financially for them.
The perception that climate risk is increasing seems to be driving the concerns of retirees. And as the old saying in marketing goes, “perception is reality.” It’s something sellers must deal with.
Trends Crashing Head On
In the case of Florida real estate, two trends are meeting head on, says a professor of sociology at Florida State University in Tallahassee. “Two trends we know are happening — the impact of climate change at the same time the world is aging,” Dr. Hauer said. “Those two trends, I’m afraid, will crash head-on, and we will see more catastrophic impacts than if either one had happened.”
It’s unclear whether the same trends are affecting the Houston market. We don’t get as many hurricanes as Florida. And people move here mainly for jobs. Then they may stay here to retire. If you have personal or professional knowledge of this trend in Houston, please contact me.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/25/22 based on a New York Times article by Susan Garland
1914 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Powerful Thanksgiving Storms Could Bring Flooding
Rainfall predictions associated with approaching Thanksgiving storms keep increasing. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist now says approaching storms will bring widespread impacts from Thursday through Saturday. He also warns that heavy rainfall may lead to street flooding and rises on area creeks/bayous. Models now show a band of 5-7 inches of rain in places.
Thursday
Lindner says a surface warm front will approach the upper TX coast early Thursday and move inland. He expects showers to increase in coverage and intensity near the front, which may approach the US 59 corridor by midday before slowing and potentially stalling Thursday afternoon.
Along and south of the warm front be prepared for isolated severe storms and excessive rainfall with inflow off the Gulf. All the elements are in place for flash flooding “and warm fronts are notorious in these sort of setups for producing excessive rainfall,” says Lindner.
The best case for inland areas is that the warm front is held closer to the coast.
Friday – Saturday
Models have now slowed down the movement of an upper level low to our west. Lindner now predicts a break in the rainfall Friday morning, before another round of widespread, heavy rains move back into the area Friday afternoon and evening.
Expect grounds to become increasingly saturated and runoff to increase. Showers may linger into midday Saturday, before this system finally exits to the east.
Rainfall Amounts
Predicted rainfall associated with the Thanksgiving storms has increased compared to earlier forecasts. That’s because of the potential for slow moving and training thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and the longer duration of rainfall now expected into Friday and Saturday.
Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected on Thursday afternoon with isolated totals upwards of 5-6 inches.
Some models show a band of 5-7 inches near the warm front Thursday afternoon and this is concerning.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected Friday/Saturday on top of what falls on Thursday and this will only worsen ongoing run-off from the Thursday rainfall.
Runoff
Soils are primed for run-off with recent wetting rainfall over the region. Our main concern is street flooding, but Lindner cautions us about the potential for significant rises on area watersheds, especially if the higher totals are realized in portions of Harris County.
His greatest concern is for the southern and southeastern portions of Harris County where soils are the wettest and potential rainfall the highest. But he still isn’t confident enough to pinpoint the exact locations of the highest rainfall.
He says most watersheds can handle 3-4 inches. But if we start to exceed 5 inches, the concern for flooding from the bayous and creeks listed below will increase.
IF 5-7 inches, streams most in danger of flooding will be:
Thursday’s Excessive Rainfall Potential
If you’re out and about over the holidays, remember. Be wary of underpasses and bridges. If you can’t see the roadway, you don’t know how deep the water is. Turn around and don’t drown.
Also remember. Seven inches was the amount of rain Woodridge Village received on May 7, 2019. Woodridge now has much more stormwater detention capacity. But there are plenty of other clearcut areas around the area that don’t have much if any yet.
Friday’s Excessive Rainfall Potential
Keep your eye on the sky if you head out the door this holiday. Don’t let the Thanksgiving storms ruin your holidays.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/23/22 based on a forecast by HCFCD
1912 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Time for Lake Houston Area to Hit Flood-Mitigation Reset Button
During Lina Hidalgo’s first term, hundreds of millions of dollars in flood-mitigation projects went to low-income watersheds while the Lake Houston Area went begging. So what does the recent election mean for the area’s flood-mitigation goals and strategies? What can we do to reduce flood risk with the deck stacked even further against us? It’s time to hit the flood-mitigation reset button.
Before the election, Democrats insisted that they still intended to complete all the projects in the 2018 Flood Bond. But now with a super-majority on Commissioner’s Court, they have the power to spend that money wherever they want with impunity.
We need to regroup and develop new strategies to attain our goals. We can no longer afford to rely so much on Harris County.
Understanding the Process
Flood mitigation has political, technical and financial aspects. They all demand coordination. After Harvey, Guy Sconzo, former superintendent of Humble ISD, and the Lake Houston Area Chamber formed a task force with area leaders to identify the causes of flooding and work toward solutions.
After initial successes, sadly, Sconzo died. It happened shortly after the passage of the 2018 Harris County Flood Bond and the State’s Flood Infrastructure Fund. Not long thereafter, the task force disbanded. People assumed that projects would just happen. They didn’t.
Roadblocks since Harvey
No one fully understood how long the process would take, all the steps that were involved, how much projects could ultimately cost, the intense competition for funding, and how projects could languish without a coordinated effort to remove roadblocks as they arose.
For instance:
12-Step Plan for Flood Mitigation
We must overcome our addiction to expectations of fair treatment and learn that we must fight for our homes and safety. We must become masters of our own fate and hit the flood-mitigation reset button now. So, what to do?
These are my personal recommendations.
Starting Points
Harris County Flood Control District began engineering studies long before Harvey for the projects you now see in construction. Then, when Harvey hit and voters passed the 2018 flood bond, they were ready to go.
Other areas had to start from scratch and are still running the gauntlet of feasibility, preliminary engineering, final engineering, and environmental studies.
In the the Lake Houston Area:
Who is ensuring that engineering studies consider realistic funding alternatives? How much time, effort and money have we wasted by working in silos? Maybe a renewed Lake Houston Area Flood Task Force could help with those issues.
We need earmarks for funding at the state level. But who will fight for them? How will our representatives and senators know what to fight for? And how much the projects cost?
Any area with a completed study should have a project moving forward and be looking for funding. If it doesn’t, then someone is messing up the process.
Reliable sources tell me not to expect much from Harris County. Rodney Ellis wants to rub our noses in the Woodridge Village land purchase every chance he gets. So, we have to accept that and work around it.
First Meeting Held on Reconstituting Task Force
The good news in all this is that a preliminary meeting of area leaders on the City, County, State and Federal levels was held on November 8th at Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s office. Everyone attending agreed on the need to reconstitute the Task Force and hit the flood-mitigation reset button. The group also examined a number of possible issues to focus on. More news on the new Task Force as it begins to set priorities.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/22/2022 with thanks to Dr. Charles Campbell for the post’s photo.
1911 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.