The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a tropical weather outlook today that shows a 10% chance of tropical formation in the Gulf. This is your “heads up.” Hurricane season is ramping up.
NHC will provide an update on chances for development later this evening, but models show growing support that a tropical depression or weak tropical storm is possible along the middle or lower TX coast by Sunday. The system will then moving inland over south Texas late Sunday into Monday, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist.
Latest Satellite Imagery
Here’s what the Gulf looks like on satellite Friday evening. The system will track W to WSW over 85-90 degree waters toward the mid- or lower-Texas coast on Sunday.
4:51 PM Houston DST
Currently, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with an area of low pressure centered just offshore of the southern coast of Louisiana. There’s no tropical formation yet. But that could change.
As of 2PM EDT today, NHC listed the formation chance through:
48 hours…low…10 percent.
5 days…low…10 percent.
Rainfall Potential
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see the National Weather Service site and the Weather Prediction Center.
Decent rain chances exist for the next three days, especially along the coastline south of I-10.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, he expects most of the shower and thunderstorm development associated with this low pressure system to happen near the coast and offshore. He expects lesser chances inland to the north as high pressure and drier air begins to build southward from the northeast.
Forecasters use a measurement called PWS (Precipitable Waters) to predict amounts of rainfall. PWS measures the amount of water vapor in a column of air. This weekend with PWS of 2.2-2.3 inches and possible cell training, Lindner warns that a quick 2-3 inches of rainfall in less than an hour will be possible. Even though grounds are dry and should be able to handle the rainfall, some street flooding will be possible with those rates.
No River Flooding Expected
However, National Weather Service expects no significant river flooding in the next five days.
Tide Report
According to Lindner, tides are already elevated along the coast due to the full moon. Easterly and southeasterly low-level winds on the north side of the low may bump seas up a bit over the weekend and push tides a little higher. He expects water to be way up on the beaches at high tides over the weekend.
Monitor forecasts closely over the weekend for any changes.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/12/2022
1809 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/1000x1000.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=110001000adminadmin2022-08-12 17:29:382022-08-12 17:30:40Slight Chance of Tropical Formation In Gulf This Weekend
Quick, somebody call Ripley. Against all odds, water appears to be flowing uphill at the Laurel Springs RV Resort.
Note the pond to the left of the detention pond near the tree line. A sharp drop off exists below the bank of the detention pond, toward Edgewater Park on the left. Now see closeup below.The only apparent source for water in the circle is the pond on the left. But that’s below the water in the circle.
Is this an optical delusion? Or could something else be going on here? Could water actually be leaking through the dike?
Location of Buried Pipe
Back in January, contractors dug a trench through the dike and released the contents of the resort’s detention pond into Edgewater Park.
Silty stormwater being discharged into the wetlands of Harris County’s Edgewater Park below the RV resort. January 2022.
Later, a contractor told me his company removed the pipe. But I couldn’t find a single nearby resident who saw them do it. Subsequently, I’ve noticed water apparently leaking from the detention pond into the park after several rains…at this same spot! See below.
May 2022. Exact location shown in photos above.
So one possible explanation for this violation of the law of gravity could be that the pipe remains buried in the dike and water leaks through it. But I just can’t believe a contractor would lie to me!
If the pipe remains in the dike, that would seem to violate the owner’s construction permit. It says, in big red letters, “Stormwater Runoff Shall NOT Cross Property Lines.” I can’t believe the developer would violate permit terms either!
It’s hard being a small business owner these days. Do you violate Newton’s Law of Gravity or City law? Given a choice, it might be cheaper to go with Newton. So all things considered, I guess they figured out a way to get water flowing uphill. I’ve heard the owners are marketing geniuses.
I’m sure vacationers would drive their RVs from all across North America to see water flow uphill. Imagine the postcard sales!
Mysterious Black Spots Reappear
But that’s not the only possible tourist attraction. You’ve heard of people getting blood from a stone. At the Laurel Springs RV Resort, oil appears to simply ooze from the ground. Move over Beverly Hillbillies!
Looking North from over Edgewater Park. Note dark areas in red circle and see magnified image below.Photo taken 8/11/22.From a legal height, I shot straight down and photographed an oily sheen on the black spots.
This is the same location where I previously photographed contractors covering up black spots on several occasions. See one below.
Mysterious black spots in Laurel Springs RV Resort Detention Pond on March 10, 2022. Note bulldozer tracks.
Never ones to pass up a marketing opportunity, the RV resort owners reportedly hope to hire Max Baer, Jr., the last surviving member from the classic Beverly Hillbillies sitcom from the 1960s and 70s. Rumor has it, they want the 83-year-old Baer, who played Jethro, to be the first person through the gates at the grand opening. He would reportedly pass out samples of the oily substance so that RV owners across America can live the dream and tell their grandchildren how they struck oil while vacationing in Texas.
Concrete Galore
In another feat of marketing genius, the developer convinced the City of Houston permitting people that one third of the property would NOT be impervious cover, i.e., concrete.
The developer is not yet done with pouring concrete. But it appears as if it will cover a lot more than 2/3rds of the site.
Will one third really be pervious?
By the way, according Section 9.1.04.O of the City’s Infrastructure Design Manual, detention ponds count as 100% impervious cover regardless of whether they have wet or dry bottoms. So the pond doesn’t count toward the one-third – just those skinny slots between RV parking spaces. And does it look like they add up to seven acres!?
It looks like Harry Houdini would have a hard time squeezing between the narrower ones. Of course, Houdini died in the 1920s. So how will they divert attention from this one? The developer reportedly wants to hire David Blaine, reputed to be the world’s greatest living escape artist, to appear at the grand opening. Blaine will show anyone who complains about the tight parking spots how to squeeze into his/her RV.
I can’t wait for the star-studded grand opening when I get to see water flowing uphill, Jethro passing out oil, and City inspectors lining up for David Blaine’s autograph.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/2022
1808 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/20220811-DJI_0320-2-copy.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2022-08-11 19:23:462022-08-11 23:06:37Water Flowing Uphill at Laurel Springs RV Resort
When I first started exploring the forests north of Houston 40 years ago, I thought they were among the prettiest places in Texas.
The towering pines had a quiet beauty. They wrapped you in a blanket of solitude. Surrounded you with silence. Calmed the soul. Enabled a retreat from workday worries into a world of wonder.
Here, you could reconnect with the roots of life. Relax. Restore. Renew. Right outside your back door. I just had to live here! But a million other people had the same dream.
16 Lanes Later
The dream became so successful that we paved 16 lanes to it.
Looking North at I-69 and Kingwood from over the West Fork San Jacinto
The same thing happened along I-45. As one development after another sprang up, we found ourselves destroying what attracted us here.
The Pursuit of Loneliness
As I reflected on this, it reminded me of a book I read in 1970, The Pursuit of Loneliness by Phillip Slater. For thousands of years, Slater said, to be civilized meant to be citified. We love all the benefits of living in a city (such as jobs, shopping, medical care, and events), but we dream of a place in the country that lets us escape. So we buy some acreage, use up hours each day commuting. And wake up years later only to find that millions of us have collectively destroyed the very lifestyle we fought so hard to attain.
Here’s what I found from four hundred feet up as I flew last month from I-45 to I-69 down the San Jacinto West Fork in a helicopter – 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile reach of the river – carved out of one of the prettiest places in Texas. Unfortunately, this isn’t the only such stretch of river like this in the region.
All that opaque blue water isn’t what you’d find on a Caribbean island. It’s likely loaded with chlorides or cyanobacteria.
Dreams Built on Sand
Ironically, it takes sand to make concrete. And it takes concrete to build 16 lanes to your dream home. It might be worth it when you live at the end of the road and they take the sand from someplace else. You can still enjoy the dream.
But when the 16 lanes go 20 miles beyond you, when someone tears up YOUR forest to get the sand, and destroys the beauty you built your dream around, it makes you wonder whether there is a better way.
Can we find the sand somewhere else? Can we define rules for mining that preserve our collective dream, perhaps by repurposing the mines after we have exhausted them? Can we give developers an incentive to preserve trees instead of clearcutting them? Hope springs eternal, as the poets say. Another legislative session starts in January. Stranger things have happened.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/10/22
1807 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/20220722-RJR_0349.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2022-08-10 17:37:332022-08-11 16:27:30One of the Prettiest Places in Texas
Slight Chance of Tropical Formation In Gulf This Weekend
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a tropical weather outlook today that shows a 10% chance of tropical formation in the Gulf. This is your “heads up.” Hurricane season is ramping up.
NHC will provide an update on chances for development later this evening, but models show growing support that a tropical depression or weak tropical storm is possible along the middle or lower TX coast by Sunday. The system will then moving inland over south Texas late Sunday into Monday, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist.
Latest Satellite Imagery
Here’s what the Gulf looks like on satellite Friday evening. The system will track W to WSW over 85-90 degree waters toward the mid- or lower-Texas coast on Sunday.
Currently, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with an area of low pressure centered just offshore of the southern coast of Louisiana. There’s no tropical formation yet. But that could change.
As of 2PM EDT today, NHC listed the formation chance through:
Rainfall Potential
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see the National Weather Service site and the Weather Prediction Center.
Decent rain chances exist for the next three days, especially along the coastline south of I-10.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, he expects most of the shower and thunderstorm development associated with this low pressure system to happen near the coast and offshore. He expects lesser chances inland to the north as high pressure and drier air begins to build southward from the northeast.
Forecasters use a measurement called PWS (Precipitable Waters) to predict amounts of rainfall. PWS measures the amount of water vapor in a column of air. This weekend with PWS of 2.2-2.3 inches and possible cell training, Lindner warns that a quick 2-3 inches of rainfall in less than an hour will be possible. Even though grounds are dry and should be able to handle the rainfall, some street flooding will be possible with those rates.
No River Flooding Expected
However, National Weather Service expects no significant river flooding in the next five days.
Tide Report
According to Lindner, tides are already elevated along the coast due to the full moon. Easterly and southeasterly low-level winds on the north side of the low may bump seas up a bit over the weekend and push tides a little higher. He expects water to be way up on the beaches at high tides over the weekend.
Monitor forecasts closely over the weekend for any changes.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/12/2022
1809 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Water Flowing Uphill at Laurel Springs RV Resort
Quick, somebody call Ripley. Against all odds, water appears to be flowing uphill at the Laurel Springs RV Resort.
Is this an optical delusion? Or could something else be going on here? Could water actually be leaking through the dike?
Location of Buried Pipe
Back in January, contractors dug a trench through the dike and released the contents of the resort’s detention pond into Edgewater Park.
Within another day, contractors started burying pipe in the trench and covering it up…at this exact spot where we now apparently see water flowing uphill.
TCEQ traced sediment from the detention pond 450 feet downhill into the county’s park. Harris County then issued a Cease and Desist warning. In it, the County threatened to sue the owners of the RV park.
Later, a contractor told me his company removed the pipe. But I couldn’t find a single nearby resident who saw them do it. Subsequently, I’ve noticed water apparently leaking from the detention pond into the park after several rains…at this same spot! See below.
So one possible explanation for this violation of the law of gravity could be that the pipe remains buried in the dike and water leaks through it. But I just can’t believe a contractor would lie to me!
If the pipe remains in the dike, that would seem to violate the owner’s construction permit. It says, in big red letters, “Stormwater Runoff Shall NOT Cross Property Lines.” I can’t believe the developer would violate permit terms either!
It’s hard being a small business owner these days. Do you violate Newton’s Law of Gravity or City law? Given a choice, it might be cheaper to go with Newton. So all things considered, I guess they figured out a way to get water flowing uphill. I’ve heard the owners are marketing geniuses.
Mysterious Black Spots Reappear
But that’s not the only possible tourist attraction. You’ve heard of people getting blood from a stone. At the Laurel Springs RV Resort, oil appears to simply ooze from the ground. Move over Beverly Hillbillies!
This is the same location where I previously photographed contractors covering up black spots on several occasions. See one below.
Every time contractors cover them up, they reappear. The TCEQ could not determine the origin of the dilute sample they found after one coverup. And Railroad Commission logs show no pipelines or abandoned wells in the area. So it’s officially a mystery.
Never ones to pass up a marketing opportunity, the RV resort owners reportedly hope to hire Max Baer, Jr., the last surviving member from the classic Beverly Hillbillies sitcom from the 1960s and 70s. Rumor has it, they want the 83-year-old Baer, who played Jethro, to be the first person through the gates at the grand opening. He would reportedly pass out samples of the oily substance so that RV owners across America can live the dream and tell their grandchildren how they struck oil while vacationing in Texas.
Concrete Galore
In another feat of marketing genius, the developer convinced the City of Houston permitting people that one third of the property would NOT be impervious cover, i.e., concrete.
The developer is not yet done with pouring concrete. But it appears as if it will cover a lot more than 2/3rds of the site.
By the way, according Section 9.1.04.O of the City’s Infrastructure Design Manual, detention ponds count as 100% impervious cover regardless of whether they have wet or dry bottoms. So the pond doesn’t count toward the one-third – just those skinny slots between RV parking spaces. And does it look like they add up to seven acres!?
It looks like Harry Houdini would have a hard time squeezing between the narrower ones. Of course, Houdini died in the 1920s. So how will they divert attention from this one? The developer reportedly wants to hire David Blaine, reputed to be the world’s greatest living escape artist, to appear at the grand opening. Blaine will show anyone who complains about the tight parking spots how to squeeze into his/her RV.
I can’t wait for the star-studded grand opening when I get to see water flowing uphill, Jethro passing out oil, and City inspectors lining up for David Blaine’s autograph.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/2022
1808 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
One of the Prettiest Places in Texas
When I first started exploring the forests north of Houston 40 years ago, I thought they were among the prettiest places in Texas.
The towering pines had a quiet beauty. They wrapped you in a blanket of solitude. Surrounded you with silence. Calmed the soul. Enabled a retreat from workday worries into a world of wonder.
Here, you could reconnect with the roots of life. Relax. Restore. Renew. Right outside your back door. I just had to live here! But a million other people had the same dream.
16 Lanes Later
The dream became so successful that we paved 16 lanes to it.
The same thing happened along I-45. As one development after another sprang up, we found ourselves destroying what attracted us here.
The Pursuit of Loneliness
As I reflected on this, it reminded me of a book I read in 1970, The Pursuit of Loneliness by Phillip Slater. For thousands of years, Slater said, to be civilized meant to be citified. We love all the benefits of living in a city (such as jobs, shopping, medical care, and events), but we dream of a place in the country that lets us escape. So we buy some acreage, use up hours each day commuting. And wake up years later only to find that millions of us have collectively destroyed the very lifestyle we fought so hard to attain.
Changes We Ordinarily Can’t See
To see the changes we caused, you need to rise above the tree tops. Only from there can you comprehend how we have put our forests and rivers under a carving knife.
Here’s what I found from four hundred feet up as I flew last month from I-45 to I-69 down the San Jacinto West Fork in a helicopter – 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile reach of the river – carved out of one of the prettiest places in Texas. Unfortunately, this isn’t the only such stretch of river like this in the region.
Dreams Built on Sand
Ironically, it takes sand to make concrete. And it takes concrete to build 16 lanes to your dream home. It might be worth it when you live at the end of the road and they take the sand from someplace else. You can still enjoy the dream.
But when the 16 lanes go 20 miles beyond you, when someone tears up YOUR forest to get the sand, and destroys the beauty you built your dream around, it makes you wonder whether there is a better way.
Can we find the sand somewhere else? Can we define rules for mining that preserve our collective dream, perhaps by repurposing the mines after we have exhausted them? Can we give developers an incentive to preserve trees instead of clearcutting them? Hope springs eternal, as the poets say. Another legislative session starts in January. Stranger things have happened.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/10/22
1807 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.