September, monthly spending was only $8.1 million.
In September, HCFCD spent less than half of what it did in August and one-eighth of what it did in July.
All this comes at a time when many projects are wrapping up engineering and moving into the more expensive land-acquisition and construction phases. Also, construction has not been slowed by heavy rains; we’re still on the verge of drought. So the trend is opposite of what you would expect.
Spending by Watershed
The table below shows spending by watershed reported in the last two flood-bond updates. Note: The update presented to commissioners is delayed about six weeks. In the November 15th meeting, commissioners received the “October” update which actually showed bond spending through the end of September. Calculating the difference from the last two updates shows how much money HCFCD spent in each watershed during the last reported month (September).
Transcribed from maps in August and September 2022 Flood-Bond Updates.
This shows that five watersheds received NO money. And Luce received only $250. So, a quarter of the county’s 23 watersheds had virtually no activity.
In case you’re unfamiliar with the watersheds’ locations, see the map below from the Bond Update.
From HCFCD’s September 2022 Flood-Bond Update
Spending Decrease in Perspective
Let’s put $8 million into perspective. The recent “running rate” through July was more than $60 million per month. September is about 1/8th of that.
If $8 million per month becomes the new “running rate” – with $3.9 billion more to go – it would take another 40 years to complete all the projects in the bond. That’s in addition to the 4+ years we’ve already spent.
Harris County originally conceived the bond as a 10-year effort.
Other Indicators
“Spending to Date” is not the only indicator that things may be starting to come off the rails.
Construction contracts awarded somehow decreased from 48 to 40 even though the value increased from $393 million to $415 million.
HCFCD awarded 11 new “agreements” for a total of $11.6 million during the month, but the totals to date don’t add up with those reported the previous month.
Professional services invoices paid decreased from $4.8 million to $253 thousand – a 94% decrease.
Reported “overall progress” didn’t budge. It remained at 23.5% of the total bond.
“Key performance indicators” decreased again – this time from .97 to .95. This is a project management measure of on-schedule performance. Above 1 indicates “ahead of schedule.” Below 1 indicates “behind schedule.”
“Home buyouts in progress” decreased from 331 to 285. But HCFCD has spent only 31% of buyout funding secured to date. So there are many more to go.
The San Jacinto watershed is the county’s largest. It received less than $50,000, but had the deepest flooding during Harvey. The only spending shown in the update for the San Jacinto is for “drainage system repairs” at an unspecified location.
The update shows no other active maintenance projects and no active capital-improvement projects in the entire Lake Houston Area.
The entire watershed’s percentage of all flood-bond spending for the month was 0.58%.
Why the Slowdown?
Several sources have indicated a variety of reasons:
Management Turnover – HCFCD lost its top three leaders recently: Russ Poppe, Matt Zeve, and Alan Black. These architects of the flood bond had decades of experience between them. They had conducted input sessions in each watershed, had a deep understanding of the issues, and were imbued with a sense of urgency.
Less Experienced Management – Two of the three have been replaced by an academic who formerly managed the Subsidence District and an administrator from Washington DC. Neither has direct Flood-Control experience. Reportedly, it takes them weeks to make decisions that used to be handled immediately. The Subsidence District has a budget one-thousandth the size of the 2018 flood bond. Can you say “apples and oranges?”
More Layers of Management – There’s now a whole new department – County Administration – between Flood Control and Commissioners Court.
Although Democrats on Commissioners Court previously reaffirmed their intent to develop all projects in the original flood bond, that was with a close election hanging over their heads. With the election behind them and a super-majority in hand, they can now do anything they want with impunity – including cancel projects in the Lake Houston Area to fund projects in other precincts.
It hasn’t happened yet, but given the history of recent money-grab attempts, as with Garcia’s attempted diversion of $191 million from Cedar Bayou, it could. Stay tuned.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/16/22
1906 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Screenshot-2022-11-17-at-12.40.04-PM.png?fit=1094%2C1242&ssl=112421094adminadmin2022-11-17 16:42:132023-02-19 18:24:00Flood-Bond Update Shows Progress Slowing…Even More
On Tuesday, 11/15/22, the United Nations estimated that the Earth’s population topped 8 billion people. I promptly wondered about the impact on impervious cover, a notorious link to flooding. However, I discovered it’s not as simple as you might think.
Impervious coverdirectly links to flooding. But the growth of impervious cover (new homes, streets, parking lots, etc.) does not directly link to population. Two studies cited below found huge variations in the growth of impervious cover related to LOCATION and LIFESTYLE. It doesn’t all depend on population.
Increasing Rate of Population Growth
It took Earth 200 thousand years to reach 1 billion people in 1804. Since then, we’ve added 7 billion people in a little more than two centuries. The last billion took just 12 years!
Clearly, growth has accelerated. Such numbers demand reflection. They prompt at least two questions: Are we living sustainably? And does the increase in impervious cover associated with population growth necessarily lead to a corresponding increase in flooding? I can’t answer the first. But based on these studies, I’ll answer the second with, “Not necessarily. It depends.”
2007 Study Shows Widely Varying Rates of Impervious Cover Worldwide
ISA alters the character of watersheds by increasing the frequency and magnitude of surface runoff pulses.
Increased overland flow also alters the shape of stream channels, raising water temperatures, and sweeping urban pollutants into aquatic environments.
Hydrologic consequences of ISA include:
Increased flooding
Reductions in ground water recharge
Reductions in surface water quality.
So Who Has the Most Impervious Surface?
The three countries with the most ISA are China, the U.S. and India. But our population varies dramatically from the other two. With less than a third of the population, we have roughly four times more impervious cover. That makes our ISA per person roughly 4-5X higher.
So there’s not a direct correlation between population and impervious cover.
While noting that the world’s most developed nations also have the highest percentage of impervious cover, the study does not go much beyond that. It does not quantify the relative rates of flooding in each country studied. The main objective was simply to offer a framework and methodology for measuring impervious cover that other researchers could build on.
An Urban Planning Perspective
A second study reviewed the study above from an urban-planning perspective and led off with these two images.
As you probably already guessed, the area on the left has the most pavement per person, despite appearing to have less concrete.
The area on the right is in Germany, which has about one third of the paved surface per capita of the U.S. Both countries are comparably wealthy and both famed for their highways. This article digs deeper into planning issues associated with:
Distribution of impervious cover
Infrastructure maintenance costs
Urban planning strategies
Impervious Cover Related to Auto Culture
Daniel Herriges, the author, points out that impervious surfaces exist for three major reasons:
Using the EPA’s interactive EnviroAtlas, Herriges created heat maps of several major cities. They consistently revealed that the highest impervious surface per capita is in suburbs, not central cities.
He continues, “The paradox this data reveals is stark: New York City is dominated by brick and glass and concrete and steel. But NYC residents have just about the least amount of pavement to their name of any Americans. Meanwhile, our greenest places are in one sense the least ‘green,’ when you account for the parking lots and six-lane stroads that come with large grassy lawns.”
What Appears to Be Green Can Be Deceiving
Herriges concludes: “…what appears green can be deceiving.”
He argues to “Let cities be cities and rural be rural.” In productive places that generate wealth…we can afford to deal with stormwater through more sophisticated technological means: pipes, pumps, levees, as well as newer technologies like green roofs and permeable pavement.”
But he argues, “Places that produce comparatively lower revenue warrant a different approach, a more natural and low-tech one. It’s not that verdant suburbs are always bad: it’s that we should deal with drainage in those places by keeping our paved footprint to a minimum, and absorbing as much stormwater back into the ground as possible.”
Unfortunately, he doesn’t delve into the factors that drive suburban migration, such as school quality and crime rates. Nor does he hint at what to do with the auto-oriented suburbs and commuting culture we already have. Still, he’s a brilliant writer who offers much to think about.
If he proves one thing, it’s that population growth doesn’t automatically lead to more impervious cover per capita and increased flooding.
But is it possible to wean Americans off automobiles? It seems that’s an even bigger ask than preserving natural floodplains.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/16/22
1905 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/20221116-Screenshot-2022-11-16-at-12.33.11-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C472&ssl=14721200adminadmin2022-11-16 15:49:352022-11-16 16:23:24World Population Tops 8 Billion: Will It Impact Impervious Cover?
No. Airplanes won’t be taking off and landing at the Laurel Springs RV resort any time soon. The headline has to do with an FAA rule that prohibits wet-bottom stormwater detention basins within five miles of airports.
Because of this pond’s location near IAH airport, the FAA and City of Houston require the stormwater detention basin to have a dry bottom within 48 hours after a storm. The requirement helps discourage birds, especially geese and other large waterfowl, from taking up residence close to the airport. That’s an important consideration, especially during the migration season, which we are in right now.
Wet-bottom ponds attract ducks and geese that create a hazard for aircraft taking off, landing or circling.
Problem Still Not Fixed
I first posted about this in May of this year and was told that the “Resort” hadn’t hooked up electricity to its pumps yet. Now, it’s almost six months later. And the pond is still holding water longer than allowed.
A retired airline captain who lives near the RV resort keeps calling this to my attention.
Evidently, he takes bird strikes far more seriously than the City inspector or resort owners. And little wonder!
If you google “airplane damage from bird strikes,” you find this horrifying collection of images.
Ninety percent of bird strikes happen under 3,000 feet during takeoff or landing. This video explains the dangers and shows dramatic footage of the damage birds can cause when they come through a windshield, hit a wing, or get sucked into an engine. The greatest danger is when planes are close to the ground and pilots have little time to react or recover.
In extreme cases, bird strikes have even brought down airliners. In 2009, US Airways pilot Chesley Sullenberger reported a “double bird strike” that crippled both engines just after takeoff. Luckily, he managed to ditch his plane in the Hudson River without any fatalities.
Every-Other-Day Occurrence at IAH
Lest you think the problem is rare or trivial in the Houston area, the FAA maintains a publicly available online database that lets you customize searches. You can search by State, Airport, Operator, Date Ranges, Aircraft Type, Engine Type, Damage, and even the type of birds or other wildlife involved.
In the first three quarters of 2022, the FAA received 149 reports of bird strikes at Bush Intercontinental Airport. That’s out of 272 days. So…
Planes landing or departing IAH hit birds on MOST days.
Bush IAH reported 155 in all of 2019, 98 in all of 2020, and 139 in all of 2021.
Laurel Springs Basin Still Holds Water Too Long
The approved drainage plans for the Laurel Springs RV Resort stormwater detention basin show the note below.
Basin should be dry 48 hours after a 100-year storm. But today, it wasn’t dry 48 hours after a less-than-1-year storm.
The FAA discourages land uses that attract or sustain hazardous wildlife within five (5) miles of airports to protect aircraft.
The detention pond for the Laurel Springs RV Resort falls within that radius from Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport and therefore the FAA and City mandate dry-bottom detention basins.
Laurel Springs RV Resort Detention Basin. Photo taken 11/13/22, 48 hours after storm.
The official gage at the San Jacinto West Fork and US 59 – just blocks away – recorded 1.32 inches of rain on 11/11/2022.
Official rainfall at nearest gage.
That amount is one third of a 1-year rain, according to Atlas-14 standards. That’s far less than a 100-year rain which the resort is required to pump out within 48 hours. But 48-hours later, as you can see, it’s still there.
The checkered history of this RV resort deserves yet another investigation. At one time, there were four simultaneous investigations into its drainage. Seems they still haven’t gotten the message. While the risk of a bird from their pond bringing down an airliner is very low, does any responsible individual want to defend ignoring FAA advice? Those are lessons learned the hard way.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/13/22
1902 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/20221113-DJI_0314.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2022-11-13 18:09:222022-11-15 18:17:25Laurel Springs RV Park Still Ignoring FAA Safety Requirement
Flood-Bond Update Shows Progress Slowing…Even More
Harris County Flood Control District’s latest flood-bond update shows that spending reported during the month of September slowed again. In:
All this comes at a time when many projects are wrapping up engineering and moving into the more expensive land-acquisition and construction phases. Also, construction has not been slowed by heavy rains; we’re still on the verge of drought. So the trend is opposite of what you would expect.
Spending by Watershed
The table below shows spending by watershed reported in the last two flood-bond updates. Note: The update presented to commissioners is delayed about six weeks. In the November 15th meeting, commissioners received the “October” update which actually showed bond spending through the end of September. Calculating the difference from the last two updates shows how much money HCFCD spent in each watershed during the last reported month (September).
This shows that five watersheds received NO money. And Luce received only $250. So, a quarter of the county’s 23 watersheds had virtually no activity.
In case you’re unfamiliar with the watersheds’ locations, see the map below from the Bond Update.
Spending Decrease in Perspective
Let’s put $8 million into perspective. The recent “running rate” through July was more than $60 million per month. September is about 1/8th of that.
Harris County originally conceived the bond as a 10-year effort.
Other Indicators
“Spending to Date” is not the only indicator that things may be starting to come off the rails.
For the complete update, click here.
Lake Houston Area
The San Jacinto watershed is the county’s largest. It received less than $50,000, but had the deepest flooding during Harvey. The only spending shown in the update for the San Jacinto is for “drainage system repairs” at an unspecified location.
The update shows no other active maintenance projects and no active capital-improvement projects in the entire Lake Houston Area.
The entire watershed’s percentage of all flood-bond spending for the month was 0.58%.
Why the Slowdown?
Several sources have indicated a variety of reasons:
Management Turnover – HCFCD lost its top three leaders recently: Russ Poppe, Matt Zeve, and Alan Black. These architects of the flood bond had decades of experience between them. They had conducted input sessions in each watershed, had a deep understanding of the issues, and were imbued with a sense of urgency.
Less Experienced Management – Two of the three have been replaced by an academic who formerly managed the Subsidence District and an administrator from Washington DC. Neither has direct Flood-Control experience. Reportedly, it takes them weeks to make decisions that used to be handled immediately. The Subsidence District has a budget one-thousandth the size of the 2018 flood bond. Can you say “apples and oranges?”
More Layers of Management – There’s now a whole new department – County Administration – between Flood Control and Commissioners Court.
Delays in Other Departments – As previously reported, Community Services has failed to submit a plan for how to spend $750 million allocated to Harris County for flood mitigation by the Texas General Land Office and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Drawdown of Flood Resilience Trust Funds – Also as previously reported, the County is already running out of money in the Flood Resilience Trust Fund. This was designed to provide backstop funding to keep projects moving in case grants, such as the GLO/HUD funds, were delayed.
A Nightmare Scenario
Although Democrats on Commissioners Court previously reaffirmed their intent to develop all projects in the original flood bond, that was with a close election hanging over their heads. With the election behind them and a super-majority in hand, they can now do anything they want with impunity – including cancel projects in the Lake Houston Area to fund projects in other precincts.
It hasn’t happened yet, but given the history of recent money-grab attempts, as with Garcia’s attempted diversion of $191 million from Cedar Bayou, it could. Stay tuned.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/16/22
1906 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
World Population Tops 8 Billion: Will It Impact Impervious Cover?
On Tuesday, 11/15/22, the United Nations estimated that the Earth’s population topped 8 billion people. I promptly wondered about the impact on impervious cover, a notorious link to flooding. However, I discovered it’s not as simple as you might think.
Impervious cover directly links to flooding. But the growth of impervious cover (new homes, streets, parking lots, etc.) does not directly link to population. Two studies cited below found huge variations in the growth of impervious cover related to LOCATION and LIFESTYLE. It doesn’t all depend on population.
Increasing Rate of Population Growth
It took Earth 200 thousand years to reach 1 billion people in 1804. Since then, we’ve added 7 billion people in a little more than two centuries. The last billion took just 12 years!
UN World Population Milestones
Clearly, growth has accelerated. Such numbers demand reflection. They prompt at least two questions: Are we living sustainably? And does the increase in impervious cover associated with population growth necessarily lead to a corresponding increase in flooding? I can’t answer the first. But based on these studies, I’ll answer the second with, “Not necessarily. It depends.”
2007 Study Shows Widely Varying Rates of Impervious Cover Worldwide
A 2007 study published in the journal Sensors estimated impervious surface area (ISA) in 100 counties. Called “Global Distribution and Density of Constructed Impervious Surfaces,” the authors included Christopher D. Elvidge, Benjamin T. Tuttle, Paul S. Sutton, Kimberly E. Baugh, Ara T. Howard, Cristina Milesi, Budhendra L. Bhaduri, and Ramakrishna Nemani. Among other things, they examined the impacts of hydrological and ecological disturbances associated with the growth of impervious cover.
They note that:
So Who Has the Most Impervious Surface?
The three countries with the most ISA are China, the U.S. and India. But our population varies dramatically from the other two. With less than a third of the population, we have roughly four times more impervious cover. That makes our ISA per person roughly 4-5X higher.
So there’s not a direct correlation between population and impervious cover.
While noting that the world’s most developed nations also have the highest percentage of impervious cover, the study does not go much beyond that. It does not quantify the relative rates of flooding in each country studied. The main objective was simply to offer a framework and methodology for measuring impervious cover that other researchers could build on.
An Urban Planning Perspective
A second study reviewed the study above from an urban-planning perspective and led off with these two images.
As you probably already guessed, the area on the left has the most pavement per person, despite appearing to have less concrete.
The area on the right is in Germany, which has about one third of the paved surface per capita of the U.S. Both countries are comparably wealthy and both famed for their highways. This article digs deeper into planning issues associated with:
Impervious Cover Related to Auto Culture
Daniel Herriges, the author, points out that impervious surfaces exist for three major reasons:
He adds, “Two of those three have everything to do with cars. And on nearly every measure to do with car usage, well, America is #1, Baby.”
Using the EPA’s interactive EnviroAtlas, Herriges created heat maps of several major cities. They consistently revealed that the highest impervious surface per capita is in suburbs, not central cities.
He continues, “The paradox this data reveals is stark: New York City is dominated by brick and glass and concrete and steel. But NYC residents have just about the least amount of pavement to their name of any Americans. Meanwhile, our greenest places are in one sense the least ‘green,’ when you account for the parking lots and six-lane stroads that come with large grassy lawns.”
What Appears to Be Green Can Be Deceiving
Herriges concludes: “…what appears green can be deceiving.”
He argues to “Let cities be cities and rural be rural.” In productive places that generate wealth…we can afford to deal with stormwater through more sophisticated technological means: pipes, pumps, levees, as well as newer technologies like green roofs and permeable pavement.”
But he argues, “Places that produce comparatively lower revenue warrant a different approach, a more natural and low-tech one. It’s not that verdant suburbs are always bad: it’s that we should deal with drainage in those places by keeping our paved footprint to a minimum, and absorbing as much stormwater back into the ground as possible.”
Unfortunately, he doesn’t delve into the factors that drive suburban migration, such as school quality and crime rates. Nor does he hint at what to do with the auto-oriented suburbs and commuting culture we already have. Still, he’s a brilliant writer who offers much to think about.
If he proves one thing, it’s that population growth doesn’t automatically lead to more impervious cover per capita and increased flooding.
But is it possible to wean Americans off automobiles? It seems that’s an even bigger ask than preserving natural floodplains.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/16/22
1905 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Laurel Springs RV Park Still Ignoring FAA Safety Requirement
No. Airplanes won’t be taking off and landing at the Laurel Springs RV resort any time soon. The headline has to do with an FAA rule that prohibits wet-bottom stormwater detention basins within five miles of airports.
Because of this pond’s location near IAH airport, the FAA and City of Houston require the stormwater detention basin to have a dry bottom within 48 hours after a storm. The requirement helps discourage birds, especially geese and other large waterfowl, from taking up residence close to the airport. That’s an important consideration, especially during the migration season, which we are in right now.
Wet-bottom ponds attract ducks and geese that create a hazard for aircraft taking off, landing or circling.
Problem Still Not Fixed
I first posted about this in May of this year and was told that the “Resort” hadn’t hooked up electricity to its pumps yet. Now, it’s almost six months later. And the pond is still holding water longer than allowed.
Evidently, he takes bird strikes far more seriously than the City inspector or resort owners. And little wonder!
If you google “airplane damage from bird strikes,” you find this horrifying collection of images.
16,000 Bird Strikes in U.S. Each Year
The FAA records 16,000 bird strikes in the U.S. each year. And they cause $400 million in damages to commercial aircraft.
Ninety percent of bird strikes happen under 3,000 feet during takeoff or landing. This video explains the dangers and shows dramatic footage of the damage birds can cause when they come through a windshield, hit a wing, or get sucked into an engine. The greatest danger is when planes are close to the ground and pilots have little time to react or recover.
In extreme cases, bird strikes have even brought down airliners. In 2009, US Airways pilot Chesley Sullenberger reported a “double bird strike” that crippled both engines just after takeoff. Luckily, he managed to ditch his plane in the Hudson River without any fatalities.
Every-Other-Day Occurrence at IAH
Lest you think the problem is rare or trivial in the Houston area, the FAA maintains a publicly available online database that lets you customize searches. You can search by State, Airport, Operator, Date Ranges, Aircraft Type, Engine Type, Damage, and even the type of birds or other wildlife involved.
In the first three quarters of 2022, the FAA received 149 reports of bird strikes at Bush Intercontinental Airport. That’s out of 272 days. So…
Bush IAH reported 155 in all of 2019, 98 in all of 2020, and 139 in all of 2021.
Laurel Springs Basin Still Holds Water Too Long
The approved drainage plans for the Laurel Springs RV Resort stormwater detention basin show the note below.
The relevant portions of this 28-page advisory and its update explain that…
The detention pond for the Laurel Springs RV Resort falls within that radius from Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport and therefore the FAA and City mandate dry-bottom detention basins.
The official gage at the San Jacinto West Fork and US 59 – just blocks away – recorded 1.32 inches of rain on 11/11/2022.
That amount is one third of a 1-year rain, according to Atlas-14 standards. That’s far less than a 100-year rain which the resort is required to pump out within 48 hours. But 48-hours later, as you can see, it’s still there.
The checkered history of this RV resort deserves yet another investigation. At one time, there were four simultaneous investigations into its drainage. Seems they still haven’t gotten the message. While the risk of a bird from their pond bringing down an airliner is very low, does any responsible individual want to defend ignoring FAA advice? Those are lessons learned the hard way.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/13/22
1902 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.