A hurricane is likely in the Caribbean by early next week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity near the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance should move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. NHC puts chances of formation through five days at 90%. (See the elongated red oval off the coast of South America below.)
NHC calls this Invest 98L. Invest stands for Area of Investigation.
Satellite Image Shows Interaction between 98L and Fiona
The Windward Islands are already seeing heavy rainfall and gusty winds from 98L. It will bring heavy rainfall to northern Venezuela and Colombia within the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will fly into the system this evening to collect more information.
The satellite image below shows 98L and Fiona, the major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico earlier this week.
As of 2:50 PM Houston Time, satellite image shows Fiona moving north toward Bermuda
In the image above, you can actually see the outflow from Fiona impacting 98L. It is preventing thunderstorms from organizing in 98L at the moment, but as Fiona moves north (see below), conditions will become more favorable for 98L.
NHC predicts Fiona will clip Bermuda and then head due north. Fiona should hit Canada with topical storm force winds this weekend. In the meantime, pray for people in Bermuda. Cat 4 storms can create catastrophic damage and cause power outages that last for weeks or months.
Probabilities for continued hurricane force winds along Fiona’s projected path during next 5 days.
Invest 98L Expected to Track into Caribbean and Gulf
As of this morning, all major models except one showed 98L moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
Source: TropicalTidbits.com via Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
Along its route through the Caribbean, 98L will find plenty of warm water. The chart below shows deviation from normal sea surface temperatures for this time of year. This will help fuel the storm.
As of 9/21/22
Most models forecast development of 98L this weekend as the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. As the 98L reaches the central Caribbean, shear will begin to decrease. Additionally, oceanic heat content in the Caribbean is some of the highest in the entire Atlantic basin. This deep warm water will help fuel intensification.
NOAA’s HWRF hurricane model shows intensification from a low end tropical storm to major hurricane in a 24-36 hour period. Western Caribbean systems this time of year are notorious for significant deepening in a short amount of time.
Florida More Likely Target Than Texas at this Time
However, Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says that, based on historical norms, hurricanes originating in the Caribbean this time of year tend to move toward Florida … less so toward Texas. The diagram below bears that out. It shows the points of origin and tracks for hurricanes developing in this 10 day period over 165 years.
“Hurricane impacts to the Texas coast this time of year tend to be from the Bay of Campeche and not from the western Caribbean Sea.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Historical norms aside, Lindner says 98L’s longer term track will depend on how it eventually interacts with weather over the eastern U.S. At this time, Lindner believes a frontal boundary will approach the Houston area early next week and help guide 98L east of Texas.
Still, keep your eyes on the Gulf and stay prepared in case something changes.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/22 at 5PM
1849 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Screen-Shot-2022-09-21-at-4.34.51-PM.png?fit=1774%2C1118&ssl=111181774adminadmin2022-09-21 17:10:352022-09-21 17:16:42Hurricane Likely in Caribbean Within 5 Days
The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) August update to County Commissioners on the progress of the 2018 flood bond shows a continued lopsided distribution of funds in favor of low-to-moderate income (LMI) watersheds. It also showed slowing activity overall.
Separately, the County has posted a new website and scheduled input sessions for Adrian Garcia’s proposed new $1.2 billion bond proposition(s). The dates of input sessions relative to the legislative deadline for bond language make it clear that the bond language will not reflect much voter input.
Lopsided Distribution of Funds Continues for Flood Bond
Five watersheds with a majority of LMI residents have received 39% of all the flood bond spending. LMI is defined as “below median income for the region.” Brays, Greens, White Oak, Halls and Hunting watersheds received a total of $430.4 million – an average of $86 million each. Together, the other 18 watersheds received $443.5 million – an average of $24.6 million each. Countywide projects received the rest – $217 million.
Awarded only one new construction contract valued at $1 million.
Awarded three new agreements with other contractors but spent $0 with them.
Completed 19 buyouts compared to 21 the previous month.
Spent $2.4 million on buyouts compared to $6.6 million the previous month.
The total value of active capital improvement construction projects fell to $225.8 million from $231.9 million in July and $235.6 million in June. Out of that, the Lake Houston Area still only has $2,000 or 0.0009% of the total. Although that should improve in the future, it could also worsen, depending on election outcomes in November.
Total reported bond spending increased to $1.1 billion, up from $1.06 billion the previous month, an increase (with rounding) of slightly more than $40 million.
Overall progress of the bond program? 23.5% complete – four years into a 10-year program.
However, HCFCD believes it is only slightly behind schedule. The District’s key performance indicators stayed steady at .97 percent.
Major-Maintenance Flood-Bond Spending Holds Steady, but Still Lopsided
Major maintenance projects held fairly steady. HCFCD spent $78.4 million in August compared to $78.8 million in July. But there’s only one maintenance project in the entire northeastern section of the county – some drainage system repairs in the Jackson Bayou watershed with an unspecified value. It’s unspecified because the report lumps it together with two projects in the Halls Bayou watershed. The total for all three is about $1 million. Assuming each project got one third of that million, the entire northeastern section of the county received 0.42% of all the maintenance spending from the bond last month.
The largest group of maintenance projects is along Cypress Creek and its tributaries. There are 14 projects valued at $48.1 million. That’s 61.4% of the major-maintenance total.
That’s right. Garcia wants to spend twice as much on hike-and-bike trails as public safety.
The county will hold four open houses in each of the four precincts during the next five weeks. It will also hold four virtual open houses. For a complete schedule, see HarrisCounty2022Bond.org.
The one input session in the northeastern section of Precinct 3 will be at the Humble Civic Center at 6PM on October 4th. Neither Kingwood, Huffman, Atascocita, nor Crosby will have its own input session.
Bond Language Will Not Reflect Voter Input
The county must post bond language by September 30 at the latest. But the input sessions run until October 20th. Early voting starts on October 24. And Election Day is November 8. So the bond language will not reflect much voter input. Neither the county, nor media, will have much time to digest voter input. It’s pure political theater.
The bond website simply says that “Input will be shared with Harris County Precinct staff as they make decisions regarding future projects.”
The bond website provides absolutely no detail about SPECIFIC PROJECTS or WHERE projects would be – despitepromises made by the County Administrator to Commissioners Court.
Equity and Political Leaning Will Guide Distribution of Garcia-Bond Funds
Commissioners Ramsey and Cagle argued for months to delay the bond referendum until details could be nailed down, but Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis refused.
During debate in Commissioners Court, it became clear that Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis intend to use “equity principles” to divvy up the money, not just to prioritize the start date of projects as they did with the 2018 flood bond. Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis even passed a motion that would give Democratic-leaning Precincts about 40% more money than Republican-leaning Precincts. For instance, Precinct 3 would be guaranteed only $220 million. That’s 18% of the total even though P3 has 47% of the county’s unincorporated area to maintain, improve and patrol.
Why Trust in Government is Eroding
During debate, Rodney Ellis even bragged about how he redefined “equitable distribution of funds” in the 2018 Flood Bond text after the election.
My takeaway: Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis don’t want to be held accountable. They talk transparency, but this is nothing more than a slush fund. And this is why trust in government is eroding in my humble opinion.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/22
1848 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/20220920-Screen-Shot-2022-09-20-at-2.22.40-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C923&ssl=19231200adminadmin2022-09-20 20:03:512022-10-01 12:54:45Flood- and Garcia-Bond Updates
Looking NW at Woodridge Village days before Imelda. During the storm, water flowed toward the circle, bottom right, with little to slow it down. Overflow went into surrounding streets.See video below taken from ground level.September 19, 2019. Sheet flow from the Woodridge Village development flows down Village Springs in Elm Grove.Family evacuating through North Kingwood Forest. Car submerged during Imelda at the end of Village Springs adjacent to Woodridge. People living in campers while restoring their homes from the May 7, 2019 flood were flooded again.
Security cam time lapse footage in Elm Grove on east side of Taylor Gully.Depth of flood in Elm Grove was about two feet at this house.Elm Grove debris pile after Imelda flood.Abel Versa had to grab his car to avoid slipping in ankle-deep muck on Village Springs.The bridge over Taylor Gully at Rustling Elms in Elm Grove caught debris flowing downstream.
Before the clearcutting, these areas had not flooded – even during Hurricane Harvey.
Lessons Lost
Lawsuits against the Woodridge Village developer and its contractors quickly followed. And flood victims won a major settlement. But the clearcutting lessons learned in court seem to be lost on other developers.
Lately, it seems that developers all around northern Harris, southern Montgomery, and Liberty Counties have employed clearcutting.
Mavera is clearing 2,015 acres at FM1314 and SH242.
Preserve at Woodridge is building 13-homes to the acre on 17 clearcut acres adjacent to a tributary of Bens Branch.
These represent just a few of the clearcutting stories I’ve covered in the last few months. So far, they’ve been lucky. We haven’t had any tropical storms like Imelda.
But still, risk remains. You’d think developers would hedge that risk by leaving some trees. They reduce erosion. Suck up rainwater. Slow down runoff. And filter water that may overflow detention basins.
But it’s their property. And your problem if we get another Imelda.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 19, 2022
1847 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 3 years since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Elm-Grove-9.19_68.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2022-09-19 20:49:442022-09-19 23:52:38Imelda’s Third Anniversary Brings Clearcutting into Focus
Hurricane Likely in Caribbean Within 5 Days
A hurricane is likely in the Caribbean by early next week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity near the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance should move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. NHC puts chances of formation through five days at 90%. (See the elongated red oval off the coast of South America below.)
NHC calls this Invest 98L. Invest stands for Area of Investigation.
Satellite Image Shows Interaction between 98L and Fiona
The Windward Islands are already seeing heavy rainfall and gusty winds from 98L. It will bring heavy rainfall to northern Venezuela and Colombia within the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will fly into the system this evening to collect more information.
The satellite image below shows 98L and Fiona, the major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico earlier this week.
In the image above, you can actually see the outflow from Fiona impacting 98L. It is preventing thunderstorms from organizing in 98L at the moment, but as Fiona moves north (see below), conditions will become more favorable for 98L.
Fiona is Cat 4, Heading North
Fiona is still packing winds of 130 mph. That puts it just inside Category 4 as of Wednesday 9/21/22 at 5PM.
NHC predicts Fiona will clip Bermuda and then head due north. Fiona should hit Canada with topical storm force winds this weekend. In the meantime, pray for people in Bermuda. Cat 4 storms can create catastrophic damage and cause power outages that last for weeks or months.
Invest 98L Expected to Track into Caribbean and Gulf
As of this morning, all major models except one showed 98L moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
Along its route through the Caribbean, 98L will find plenty of warm water. The chart below shows deviation from normal sea surface temperatures for this time of year. This will help fuel the storm.
Most models forecast development of 98L this weekend as the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. As the 98L reaches the central Caribbean, shear will begin to decrease. Additionally, oceanic heat content in the Caribbean is some of the highest in the entire Atlantic basin. This deep warm water will help fuel intensification.
NOAA’s HWRF hurricane model shows intensification from a low end tropical storm to major hurricane in a 24-36 hour period. Western Caribbean systems this time of year are notorious for significant deepening in a short amount of time.
Florida More Likely Target Than Texas at this Time
However, Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says that, based on historical norms, hurricanes originating in the Caribbean this time of year tend to move toward Florida … less so toward Texas. The diagram below bears that out. It shows the points of origin and tracks for hurricanes developing in this 10 day period over 165 years.
Historical norms aside, Lindner says 98L’s longer term track will depend on how it eventually interacts with weather over the eastern U.S. At this time, Lindner believes a frontal boundary will approach the Houston area early next week and help guide 98L east of Texas.
Still, keep your eyes on the Gulf and stay prepared in case something changes.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/22 at 5PM
1849 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Flood- and Garcia-Bond Updates
The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) August update to County Commissioners on the progress of the 2018 flood bond shows a continued lopsided distribution of funds in favor of low-to-moderate income (LMI) watersheds. It also showed slowing activity overall.
Separately, the County has posted a new website and scheduled input sessions for Adrian Garcia’s proposed new $1.2 billion bond proposition(s). The dates of input sessions relative to the legislative deadline for bond language make it clear that the bond language will not reflect much voter input.
Lopsided Distribution of Funds Continues for Flood Bond
Five watersheds with a majority of LMI residents have received 39% of all the flood bond spending. LMI is defined as “below median income for the region.” Brays, Greens, White Oak, Halls and Hunting watersheds received a total of $430.4 million – an average of $86 million each. Together, the other 18 watersheds received $443.5 million – an average of $24.6 million each. Countywide projects received the rest – $217 million.
I’ve said it before. Facts do not support the political narrative that affluent watersheds get all the funding. To see what the funding in those five LMI watersheds helped buy, see the photos in these posts.
Flood-Bond Progress Appears to Slow
During the month, HCFCD:
The total value of active capital improvement construction projects fell to $225.8 million from $231.9 million in July and $235.6 million in June. Out of that, the Lake Houston Area still only has $2,000 or 0.0009% of the total. Although that should improve in the future, it could also worsen, depending on election outcomes in November.
Total reported bond spending increased to $1.1 billion, up from $1.06 billion the previous month, an increase (with rounding) of slightly more than $40 million.
Overall progress of the bond program? 23.5% complete – four years into a 10-year program.
However, HCFCD believes it is only slightly behind schedule. The District’s key performance indicators stayed steady at .97 percent.
Major-Maintenance Flood-Bond Spending Holds Steady, but Still Lopsided
Major maintenance projects held fairly steady. HCFCD spent $78.4 million in August compared to $78.8 million in July. But there’s only one maintenance project in the entire northeastern section of the county – some drainage system repairs in the Jackson Bayou watershed with an unspecified value. It’s unspecified because the report lumps it together with two projects in the Halls Bayou watershed. The total for all three is about $1 million. Assuming each project got one third of that million, the entire northeastern section of the county received 0.42% of all the maintenance spending from the bond last month.
The largest group of maintenance projects is along Cypress Creek and its tributaries. There are 14 projects valued at $48.1 million. That’s 61.4% of the major-maintenance total.
Input Sessions for Garcia-Bond
Separately, Adrian Garcia has proposed another $1.2 billion bond – even though hundreds of millions remain from the 2015 bond. Unlike the 2018 Flood Bond, which specified projects in each watershed so people knew what they were supposedly getting, Garcia’s bond contains only three high-level categories split up into Propositions A, B, and C. They include:
The county will hold four open houses in each of the four precincts during the next five weeks. It will also hold four virtual open houses. For a complete schedule, see HarrisCounty2022Bond.org.
The one input session in the northeastern section of Precinct 3 will be at the Humble Civic Center at 6PM on October 4th. Neither Kingwood, Huffman, Atascocita, nor Crosby will have its own input session.
Bond Language Will Not Reflect Voter Input
The county must post bond language by September 30 at the latest. But the input sessions run until October 20th. Early voting starts on October 24. And Election Day is November 8. So the bond language will not reflect much voter input. Neither the county, nor media, will have much time to digest voter input. It’s pure political theater.
The bond website provides absolutely no detail about SPECIFIC PROJECTS or WHERE projects would be – despite promises made by the County Administrator to Commissioners Court.
In contrast, my records show that Harris County Flood Control under Judge Ed Emmett posted a comprehensive list of projects almost two full months before the Flood Bond Referendum in 2018.
Equity and Political Leaning Will Guide Distribution of Garcia-Bond Funds
Commissioners Ramsey and Cagle argued for months to delay the bond referendum until details could be nailed down, but Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis refused.
During debate in Commissioners Court, it became clear that Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis intend to use “equity principles” to divvy up the money, not just to prioritize the start date of projects as they did with the 2018 flood bond. Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis even passed a motion that would give Democratic-leaning Precincts about 40% more money than Republican-leaning Precincts. For instance, Precinct 3 would be guaranteed only $220 million. That’s 18% of the total even though P3 has 47% of the county’s unincorporated area to maintain, improve and patrol.
Why Trust in Government is Eroding
During debate, Rodney Ellis even bragged about how he redefined “equitable distribution of funds” in the 2018 Flood Bond text after the election.
My takeaway: Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis don’t want to be held accountable. They talk transparency, but this is nothing more than a slush fund. And this is why trust in government is eroding in my humble opinion.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/22
1848 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Imelda’s Third Anniversary Brings Clearcutting into Focus
Today is the third anniversary of the day Tropical Storm Imelda flooded approximately 600 homes in Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest. A major contributing factor: clearcutting 268 acres immediately upstream. Here are several pictures and videos that people sent me.
Before the clearcutting, these areas had not flooded – even during Hurricane Harvey.
Lessons Lost
Lawsuits against the Woodridge Village developer and its contractors quickly followed. And flood victims won a major settlement. But the clearcutting lessons learned in court seem to be lost on other developers.
Lately, it seems that developers all around northern Harris, southern Montgomery, and Liberty Counties have employed clearcutting.
These represent just a few of the clearcutting stories I’ve covered in the last few months. So far, they’ve been lucky. We haven’t had any tropical storms like Imelda.
But still, risk remains. You’d think developers would hedge that risk by leaving some trees. They reduce erosion. Suck up rainwater. Slow down runoff. And filter water that may overflow detention basins.
But it’s their property. And your problem if we get another Imelda.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 19, 2022
1847 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 3 years since Imelda