In their 8/23/22 meeting, Harris County Commissioners discussed proposed budget priorities for the next fiscal year. Dr. Tina Petersen, PhD, PE, Harris County Flood Control District’s Executive Director, presented her goals for next year. And once again, they revolved around “equity.” See page 64 of the proposed budget for Petersen’s priorities or the summary below. The inequities of the “equity plan” are getting too hard to ignore.
Goal
Petersen wants to “reduce flood risk and strengthen resiliency.” Not much to quibble with there!
However, she also described how she wants to do it: “…through … equitable … strategies.”
The emphasis on “equitable” raises concerns about when HCFCD will start addressing the needs of the Lake Houston Area.
The outcomes associated with reducing flood risk? Harris County is targeting year-over-year reduction in the number of structures susceptible to damage from a 1% ATLAS 14 event. HCFCD also wants to reduce the number of structures susceptible to flooding in any flood. Both of those are admirable outcomes.
Having been burned once, though, I wish they would take it two steps further. Tell me: a) how many structures and b) where they are. Their wording leaves things too open ended and generic for my taste. The district could save a handful of homes and declare victory.
To achieve the not-so-specific outcomes articulated, the District wants to increase its budget for:
Sediment removal by $5 million, due to inflationary costs totaling 35%
Maintenance by $790,000, due to increased contract and material costs.
Mowing by $760,000, due to increased contract costs.
Building costs, professional services, and money paid to other departments, such as IT, by $1.7 million due to inflation.
Desired Outcome #2
Petersen also wants to: “invest in flood control equitably, where the most people are at risk of flooding.” I read that as, “Not the most people with the most risk; just the most people with any risk.”
Her strategy: “…increase alignment of flood control investment to areas of greatest need.” What does she mean by “greatest need”?
The deepest flooding?
The most damage to infrastructure?
The highest frequency of flooding?
Schools, grocery stores, and hospitals underwater?
Loss of critical bridges that cut off whole communities?
The southbound lanes of the I-69 bridge were knocked out by Harvey for approximately a year, causing massive delays and detours.Harvey flooding forced Humble ISD to close Kingwood High School for almost a year and bus 4000 students elsewhere.Chart showing feet above flood stage at 33 gages. Highest flooding was at 59 between Humble and Kingwood on the West Fork.
Thus, the money would go to the most densely populated areas, not necessarily those that suffered the most or worst damage. And the “revised prioritization framework” emphasizes the social vulnerability index (SVI). Ooops. There’s the “tell” again.
At least she’s telling you what you need to know when you go to the polls this fall. If you live in the Lake Houston Area, I wouldn’t count on seeing any benefit from the flood bond next year. Or the Flood Resilience Trust. The Trust contains money diverted from tollroads. That will now likely go to fix neighborhood drainage long ignored by Precincts One and Two, and the City..
Blocked street drainage in Kashmere and Trinity Garden subdivisions.
Commissioners discussed the budget for 90 minutes Tuesday. A vote on it will come in September. More to follow before then.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/22
1820 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/KHS-e1702338318946.jpg?fit=1100%2C616&ssl=16161100adminadmin2022-08-23 21:59:122022-08-24 10:41:55Flood Control Lists Budget Priorities for Fiscal ’23
Last week, I posted about the possibility of heavy rain early this week. Last night, Dallas experienced torrential rains and they’re headed this way. One amateur weather gage on Londonderry Lane reported more than 14″ of rain! Dallas/Fort Worth officially received 9.46 inches of rainfall in 6 hours and 7.8 inches in 3-hours. Significant flash flooding has resulted. A 1-hour storm total of 3.01 inches was recorded at DFW with a storm total of 6.54 inches. That wiped out 67% of the area’s 2022 rainfall deficit in a few hours.
National Weather Service map as of 12:41 pm Houston time. Purple boxes represent flash flood warnings. Bright green = Flood warnings. Dark green = flood watch.
Threat Will Increase From North to South During Next 24 Hours
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the frontal boundary over north Texas will slowly move southward today and approach the northern portions of southeast Texas by mid- to late afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary along with scattered showers developing northward along the seabreeze and Gulf inflow.
The air mass will become extremely moist and unstable. When combined with slow moving/stalled boundaries, excessive rainfall can result. Lindner says areas north of HWY 105 have the first potential for heavy rainfall in early afternoon. Then the front will slowly sink southward toward I-10 tonight into early Tuesday. Expect slow storm motions, cell training, and back-building of cells to the west and northwest. Everything points to heavy rainfall.
While grounds are dry, the local air mass will be capable of some impressive short duration rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches in an hour.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
This was clearly seen overnight in north Texas. The local air mass will not be much different over southeast Texas. Especially N of I-10. These rainfall rates can lead to rapid flash flooding especially in urban areas.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected over much of southeast Texas through mid week. But Lindner also expects isolated higher totals of 6+ inches. And where these higher totals occur, flash flooding will be possible, he says.
Confidence in rainfall is high. But confidence in rainfall amounts and location of the heaviest rainfall is low.
Street flooding will be the primary threat with the heavy rainfall rates. Rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible if some of the heavier storms train or move slowly over any watershed.
Overall, this wet pattern will linger into late week. But a slightly drier air mass will eventually push through and we should transition back toward a more “normal” cycle of showers and thunderstorms driven mostly by the seabreeze front.
See the National Weather Services predictions below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/22 based on information from HCFCD and NWS
In the Tuesday 8/23/22 Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will deliver the results of a study on the Greens Bayou mid-reach area. The study shows that when the Aldine-Westfield Phase 2 and Lauder Phase 2 Basins are complete, the area will be protected from a 10-year flood (10% annual chance). But the study doesn’t stop there. It also recommends building another large detention basin and increasing channel conveyance to protect the area in a 25-year flood (4% annual chance).
10-Year Protection Achieved
Back in 2003, HCFCD started working on a plan to bring much needed flood reduction to the area between Veterans Memorial and JFK along Greens. That stretch covers 11 miles of Harris County Precincts 1 and 2.
Locations of improvements along Greens Bayou.Red is proposed.
Also since 2003, NOAA has developed new Atlas-14 rainfall probability estimates.
Atlas 14 rainfall probabilities for northern Harris County
The new estimates show that northern Harris County could experience 30-40% more rain than previously estimated in major events. With both rainfall and detention basin capacity increasing, the question became, “Where do things stand?”
This new engineering study shows that the four existing detention basins (Kuykendahl, Glen Forest, Aldine-Westfield and Lauder) should protect homes and businesses in a 10-year flood. But achieving greater protection will require something more.
Four Alternatives to Increase Capacity
Engineers looked at four different alternative combinations of stormwater detention capacity and/or channel conveyance improvements to provide more protection. Each alternative involved the proposed Hardy Stormwater Detention Basin shown in red on the map above.
Alternative 1 – Building a 3,000 acre-foot basin
Alternative 2 – Smaller 2,000 acre-foot basin with more room for recreation
Alternative 3 – Same as #2 but also with channel conveyance improvements
Alternative 4 – Only conveyance improvements; no additional storage capacity
Alternative 5 – Build nothing else. Stop with existing basins.
The engineers recommended Alternative #3 – given sufficient funding. It would achieve a 25-year system capacity in general. The area immediately downstream of I-45 would achieve closer to a 10-year system capacity. And the area immediately downstream of the Hardy Tollroad would be closer to a 50-year capacity.
The proposed and existing improvements would create enough storage to hold a foot of rain falling across 16.4 square miles!
Cost: A mere $196 million on top of the $126 million already invested in the other four basins. Compared to Alternative 5, #3 would protect another 25 structures in a 10-year flood, 173 in a 50-year, and 239 in a 100-year. HCFCD did not list a number for a 25-year event. But we can assume it’s somewhere south of 173.
Phase 1: 3.6 miles of channel conveyance improvements
Phase 2: 3.5 miles of channel conveyance improvements and 500 acre-feet of stormwater detention
Phase 3: 3.5 miles of channel conveyance improvements and 500 acre-feet of stormwater detention
Phase 4: Final 1,000 acre-feet of stormwater detention
The slide below shows how much the existing and new improvements would shrink the 25-year floodplain. Mentally subtract the purple areas to see before and after.
Purple represents the extent of the floodplain without improvements. Blue shows the extent with improvements.
Flood Control Lists Budget Priorities for Fiscal ’23
In their 8/23/22 meeting, Harris County Commissioners discussed proposed budget priorities for the next fiscal year. Dr. Tina Petersen, PhD, PE, Harris County Flood Control District’s Executive Director, presented her goals for next year. And once again, they revolved around “equity.” See page 64 of the proposed budget for Petersen’s priorities or the summary below. The inequities of the “equity plan” are getting too hard to ignore.
Goal
Petersen wants to “reduce flood risk and strengthen resiliency.” Not much to quibble with there!
However, she also described how she wants to do it: “…through … equitable … strategies.”
Desired Outcome #1
“Equitable” might cause people in outlying areas concern, considering that Judge Hidalgo, Commissioner Ellis and Commissioner Garcia redefined that term after voters approved the 2018 Flood Bond. Equitable no longer means “fair and impartial” as most dictionaries would define it. Equitable now means prioritizing projects in watersheds with a majority of Low-to-Median Income (LMI) households and a high social-vulnerability index.
Since being blindsided in 2019, taxpayers in more affluent watersheds have largely been put on hold. For instance, out of $236 million dollars in active construction projects at the end of July 2022, the heavily flood-damaged Lake Houston Area has only $2000. That’s less than one-thousandth of one percent – 0.0008% to be precise. So…
The outcomes associated with reducing flood risk? Harris County is targeting year-over-year reduction in the number of structures susceptible to damage from a 1% ATLAS 14 event. HCFCD also wants to reduce the number of structures susceptible to flooding in any flood. Both of those are admirable outcomes.
Having been burned once, though, I wish they would take it two steps further. Tell me: a) how many structures and b) where they are. Their wording leaves things too open ended and generic for my taste. The district could save a handful of homes and declare victory.
To achieve the not-so-specific outcomes articulated, the District wants to increase its budget for:
Desired Outcome #2
Petersen also wants to: “invest in flood control equitably, where the most people are at risk of flooding.” I read that as, “Not the most people with the most risk; just the most people with any risk.”
Her strategy: “…increase alignment of flood control investment to areas of greatest need.” What does she mean by “greatest need”?
Apparently, Petersen means none of those things when she talks about greatest need. She wants to “Use the revised Prioritization Framework that emphasizes people, not structures.”
Thus, the money would go to the most densely populated areas, not necessarily those that suffered the most or worst damage. And the “revised prioritization framework” emphasizes the social vulnerability index (SVI). Ooops. There’s the “tell” again.
Petersen wants to spend her budget in the most highly populated neighborhoods with a high SVI. Translation: mostly inside the Beltway where the vast majority of funding for the last 22 years has already gone.
I’ll give Petersen one thing. She’s open about her priorities. No secrets there, unlike the trick Commissioner Ellis played on voters in 2018 with the bond language.
At least she’s telling you what you need to know when you go to the polls this fall. If you live in the Lake Houston Area, I wouldn’t count on seeing any benefit from the flood bond next year. Or the Flood Resilience Trust. The Trust contains money diverted from tollroads. That will now likely go to fix neighborhood drainage long ignored by Precincts One and Two, and the City..
Commissioners discussed the budget for 90 minutes Tuesday. A vote on it will come in September. More to follow before then.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/22
1820 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Heavy Rainfall Threat Approaching
Last week, I posted about the possibility of heavy rain early this week. Last night, Dallas experienced torrential rains and they’re headed this way. One amateur weather gage on Londonderry Lane reported more than 14″ of rain! Dallas/Fort Worth officially received 9.46 inches of rainfall in 6 hours and 7.8 inches in 3-hours. Significant flash flooding has resulted. A 1-hour storm total of 3.01 inches was recorded at DFW with a storm total of 6.54 inches. That wiped out 67% of the area’s 2022 rainfall deficit in a few hours.
Threat Will Increase From North to South During Next 24 Hours
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the frontal boundary over north Texas will slowly move southward today and approach the northern portions of southeast Texas by mid- to late afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary along with scattered showers developing northward along the seabreeze and Gulf inflow.
The air mass will become extremely moist and unstable. When combined with slow moving/stalled boundaries, excessive rainfall can result. Lindner says areas north of HWY 105 have the first potential for heavy rainfall in early afternoon. Then the front will slowly sink southward toward I-10 tonight into early Tuesday. Expect slow storm motions, cell training, and back-building of cells to the west and northwest. Everything points to heavy rainfall.
This was clearly seen overnight in north Texas. The local air mass will not be much different over southeast Texas. Especially N of I-10. These rainfall rates can lead to rapid flash flooding especially in urban areas.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected over much of southeast Texas through mid week. But Lindner also expects isolated higher totals of 6+ inches. And where these higher totals occur, flash flooding will be possible, he says.
Confidence in rainfall is high. But confidence in rainfall amounts and location of the heaviest rainfall is low.
Street flooding will be the primary threat with the heavy rainfall rates. Rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible if some of the heavier storms train or move slowly over any watershed.
Overall, this wet pattern will linger into late week. But a slightly drier air mass will eventually push through and we should transition back toward a more “normal” cycle of showers and thunderstorms driven mostly by the seabreeze front.
See the National Weather Services predictions below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/22 based on information from HCFCD and NWS
1819 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Greens Bayou Mid-Reach Segment Reaches 10-Year Level-of-Service Goal. Now What?
In the Tuesday 8/23/22 Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will deliver the results of a study on the Greens Bayou mid-reach area. The study shows that when the Aldine-Westfield Phase 2 and Lauder Phase 2 Basins are complete, the area will be protected from a 10-year flood (10% annual chance). But the study doesn’t stop there. It also recommends building another large detention basin and increasing channel conveyance to protect the area in a 25-year flood (4% annual chance).
10-Year Protection Achieved
Back in 2003, HCFCD started working on a plan to bring much needed flood reduction to the area between Veterans Memorial and JFK along Greens. That stretch covers 11 miles of Harris County Precincts 1 and 2.
Since then, four stormwater detention basins have been built along the bayou.
Also since 2003, NOAA has developed new Atlas-14 rainfall probability estimates.
The new estimates show that northern Harris County could experience 30-40% more rain than previously estimated in major events. With both rainfall and detention basin capacity increasing, the question became, “Where do things stand?”
This new engineering study shows that the four existing detention basins (Kuykendahl, Glen Forest, Aldine-Westfield and Lauder) should protect homes and businesses in a 10-year flood. But achieving greater protection will require something more.
Four Alternatives to Increase Capacity
Engineers looked at four different alternative combinations of stormwater detention capacity and/or channel conveyance improvements to provide more protection. Each alternative involved the proposed Hardy Stormwater Detention Basin shown in red on the map above.
The chart below summarizes what they found.
The engineers recommended Alternative #3 – given sufficient funding. It would achieve a 25-year system capacity in general. The area immediately downstream of I-45 would achieve closer to a 10-year system capacity. And the area immediately downstream of the Hardy Tollroad would be closer to a 50-year capacity.
The proposed and existing improvements would create enough storage to hold a foot of rain falling across 16.4 square miles!
Cost: A mere $196 million on top of the $126 million already invested in the other four basins. Compared to Alternative 5, #3 would protect another 25 structures in a 10-year flood, 173 in a 50-year, and 239 in a 100-year. HCFCD did not list a number for a 25-year event. But we can assume it’s somewhere south of 173.
This HCFCD presentation recommends a phased approach to implementation to accommodate annual funding levels.
The slide below shows how much the existing and new improvements would shrink the 25-year floodplain. Mentally subtract the purple areas to see before and after.
For the full presentation, click here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2022 based on material from HCFCD
1818 Days since Hurricane Harvey