2023 Hurricane Season Ranked 4th in Named Storms

Adapted from NOAA Post: The above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Nov. 30. It was characterized by record-warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, a strong El Niño, and the fourth highest number of named storms in a season.

NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite captured Hurricane Idalia approaching the western coast of Florida while Hurricane Franklin churned in the Atlantic Ocean at 5:01 p.m. EDT on August 29, 2023.  (Image credit: NOAA Satellites )

20 Named Storms, One of Which was Unnamed

The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023. That ranks fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950. The unnamed-named storm was a tropical storm in January that was retroactively classified as a tropical storm.

Seven storms were hurricanes and three intensified to major hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. 

The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023, ranking 4th for most-named storms in a year. Tropical cyclone names are selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (Image credit: NOAA)

Only One U.S. Landfalling Hurricane

Hurricane Idalia was the only U.S. landfalling hurricane in 2023. It made landfall as a category-3 hurricane on Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the southeast. 

Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Emerald Isle, North Carolina, on Sept. 23 causing widespread heavy rainfall, gusty winds and significant river and storm surge flooding in portions of eastern North Carolina. 

Hurricane Lee made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone in Nova Scotia, Canada, on Sept. 16. Swells generated by Lee caused dangerous surf and rip currents along the entire U.S. Atlantic coast. Strong winds with hurricane‑force gusts from Lee caused extensive power outages in Maine and in parts of Canada.

Season Fell within Predicted Range

The 2023 Atlantic seasonal activity fell within the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes in the August updated outlook.

“The Atlantic basin produced the most named storms of any El Nino influenced year in the modern record,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “The record-warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic provided a strong counterbalance to the traditional El Nino impacts.”

Eastern Pacific Also Above Normal, but Within Predicted Range

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was also above normal with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes. From Aug. 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project. 

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on Oct. 25 as a category-5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the eastern Pacific after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin. Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Hurricane season activity for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific fell within predicted ranges.

Hazards Felt Well Inland Underscores Need for Planning

“Another active hurricane season comes to a close where hazards from the storms extended well inland from the landfall location,” said NOAA National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan, Ph.D.  “This underscores the importance of having a plan to stay safe whether you’re at the coast or inland.” 

New System Improved Intensity Predictions, Response Times

NOAA’s new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System helped National Hurricane Center forecasters improve intensity predictions this season. NOAA’s intensity forecasts showed Hurricane Idalia as a major hurricane impacting the coast of Florida as early as Aug. 28.

This lead time gave those in threatened areas more time to prepare and respond, and there were no storm surge fatalities from Idalia despite storm surge inundation of as much as 12 feet above ground level in some areas. Further, extending the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook product from five to seven days, this season provided emergency managers more time to prepare and stage resources before a storm.

NOAA’s Hurricane Research and Response

This season, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew 468 mission hours to collect atmospheric data that is critical to hurricane forecasting and research, passing through the eye of a hurricane 120 times and deploying over 1,400 scientific instruments. Since 2020 through this 2023 season, NOAA’s two Lockheed WP-3D Orion have flown 40% more hurricane mission flights than the preceding four years (2016-2019). 

NOAA celebrated the first operational launch of a Black Swift drone from a NOAA WP-3D Orion to gather atmospheric data in and around Hurricane Tammy. Further, the first successful coordination of a low-flying drone (Anduril’s Altius 600), atmospheric profilers (dropsondes), and ocean profilers (bathythermographs) also launched from a NOAA WP-3D Orion.

Observations and information from these deployments are being evaluated to determine the feasibility of using the data to help with hurricane forecasting in the future. 

NOAA’s Beechcraft King Air flew 28 mission hours to collect aerial imagery used for emergency response after Hurricanes Idalia and Lee. Following Hurricane Idalia, NOAA’s National Ocean Service provided support to enable safe maritime navigation, gathering survey data for 36.8 linear nautical miles and identifying 29 potential obstructions along Florida’s coastal waterways.

NOAA also worked to identify hazards caused by capsized vessels, damaged docks and piers, parts of homes and other types of marine debris, and shared findings with Florida’s debris task force following Hurricane Idalia.  

New Use of Weather Satellites

NOAA’s geostationary and polar-orbiting weather satellites provided vital information for monitoring and forecasting the hurricanes and tropical weather that threatened our lives and property this season. Forecasters used one-minute geostationary satellite imagery to assess structure changes during the rapid intensity of storms such as Idalia, Lee and Otis. 

NOAA’s polar-orbiting satellites orbit the Earth from pole to pole 14 times a day, providing full global coverage twice daily. Throughout the hurricane season, these satellites made sophisticated and precise observations of the atmosphere, ocean and land, which were critical to developing daily and 3-5 day forecasts.

Timing for Next Year’s Forecast and Official 2023 Report

The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports for 2023, including synoptic history, meteorological statistics, casualties and damages, and the post-analysis best track, will be published on the 2023 Tropical Cyclone Report site in March 2024. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, will issue its 2024 hurricane seasonal outlook in May 2024. The hurricane season officially begins on June 1. 

Adapted from NOAA Story by Bob Rehak

2290 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Pros, Cons of Strategies to Reduce Flood Damage

Last week, I published a three-part series on the root causes of flooding. Some readers immediately started leaping to solutions. But different mitigation strategies each have pros and cons. That prompted the idea for this post. Flood control experts say that there are only three things you can do with excess stormwater:

  1. Store it.
  2. Convey it.
  3. Avoid it.

Within each of these high-level strategies, a range of tactical alternatives exists. Let’s look at them and their pros and cons.

Storage

Storage alternatives include detention basins, reservoirs and levees. They can trap excess water during storms and release it slowly after the storm passes.

PROS
  1. Can be multi-use. Dry detention basins can double as parks or sports fields. Large reservoirs can supply water and recreation.
  2. Can develop new habitat for fish. Plants and other filters can improve stormwater quality.
  3. Can be a community amenity or economic feature.
  4. Easy for public to understand how they work.
CONS
  1. Requires extensive rights-of-way, which can be costly, time consuming and politically difficult
  2. Usually involves destruction of the original habitat/land cover, and sometimes even whole neighborhoods
  3. Requires constant maintenance in perpetuity
  4. Expensive and difficult to retrofit and/or repair, as we’re seeing with the Lake Houston Dam gates.
Willow Water Hole
A small part of Willow Water Hole at South Post Oak and Hwy 90. Provides recreational alternatives and water quality features, but requires constant upkeep.

Conveyance

Increasing conveyance usually involves: channel widening/modifications; concrete-lining to accelerate throughput; straightening channels to reduce travel time; or creating new, supplementary pathways such as storm tunnels.

PROS
  1. Proven to be very effective.
  2. Relatively simple concept and easy to understand.
CONS
  1. Can require extensive right-of-way acquisition and relocations of homes/businesses.
  2. Can destroy habitat along channel banks.
  3. In urban areas, modifying bridge crossings and moving utility lines adds significant expense. For instance, since 2000, we have spent approximately half a billion dollars to widen Brays Bayou and rebuild 30 bridges across it.
  4. Can move the flooding problem from one location to another.
Brays
Brays Bayou near Texas Medical Center illustrates difficulty of widening channels in urban areas.

Avoidance

The avoidance strategy involves several different strategies: building on high ground far from rivers; elevating structures; conserving floodplains; implementing better building codes and more.

PROS
  1. Prevention is always less expensive than correction and usually the least expensive option.
  2. Floodplain conservation can result in dual-use opportunities (i.e., parks/trails). From a developer’s point of view, homes near green space usually fetch higher prices.
  3. Floodplain preservation is low/no maintenance. Nature heals itself.
  4. Structure elevation can significantly reduce risk of flooding, but it’s much harder and more costly after flood damage than during original construction.
CONS
  1. New regulations/building codes can be difficult to get approved. FEMA estimates that adoption of hazard-resistant building codes saved $32 billion during the last 20 years and could save another $132 billion by 2040. But Texas hasn’t updated its building codes since 2012.
  2. Floodplain acquisition can be very expensive. And doing it before surrounding land is developed means the Benefit/Cost Ratio probably won’t qualify for federal assistance.
  3. Pier-and-beam foundations are not as popular as slab-on-grade foundation for single-family, residential development. They’re also usually more expensive.
Once intended to be a subdivision within Kingwood, the 158 acre East End Park is now one of the community’s most popular attractions. It draws approximately 100,000 visitors each year. It also buffers surrounding homes from flooding.

Finding the Best Alternative

No one answer exists for every situation. To find the optimal solution, engineers study multiple alternatives and weigh their costs against the benefits. Then comes the hard part – finding the money to build them. No one budgets for disasters. We typically deal with disasters after the fact.

Altogether, projects such as these can take a decade or more to develop. And during that time, flood risk can be a shifting target because of upstream development and revisions to rainfall probability statistics. Personally, I’m a big advocate of caution when it comes to living near water. Your best bet is to avoid flooding.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/5/2023 based on information from leading hydrologists

2289 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Northpark Expansion Presses Forward While Fighting Entergy Obstacle

In the last two weeks, progress on the Northpark expansion project has slowed somewhat but is still pressing forward. Illegally dumped oil, utility surprises, and a traffic signal have all created bumps in the road, so to speak.

But there’s also good news to report: the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (LHRA) wired a $53,000 payment for a Union-Pacific (UP) easement to the railroad. That clears the way for construction of ground-level turn lanes near where the bridge over the UP tracks will go.

Let’s look at what’s happened in the last two weeks and what’s coming up.

Contaminated Soil Isolated

Two weeks ago while preparing to work on a detention basin on the north side of Northpark at US59, contractors encountered oil dumped years ago. That forced crews to see how far the pollution extended. They excavated a wide area and isolated contaminated dirt.

All contaminated soil was isolated with plastic sheeting before the rains last week.

Contractors are now getting ready to remove the contaminated soil to a safe site for permanent disposal where contaminants can’t leach into groundwater. While that cost time, it will make the site safer in the long run.

Looking west at area where north retention basin will be excavated.

Entergy Estimated It Would Take 50 Weeks to Move a Transformer

In other news, an Entergy consultant in The Woodlands has tried to hold the Northpark expansion project up for two years. He wanted an extra half million dollars (above and beyond the $700,000 already budgeted) to move some power lines and a transformer near the Exxon station at US59.

The consultant demanded 50 weeks to move the ground-mounted transformer alone. His motive was unclear. Was he using a not-so-subtle form of extortion to make himself look better in his client’s eyes?

It’s also unclear whether Entergy, a company that trumpets its social responsibility, knew about the consultant’s demands. Entergy is a Fortune 500 company with 3 million customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. 

The Northpark Expansion project is designed to create an all-weather evacuation route for 70,000 people. One would think that a socially minded company with a $4.4 billion rate base (in Texas alone) could move a transformer in less than a year if it really wanted to.

Ralph De Leon, project manager for the Northpark expansion project, finally managed to bypass the consultant and is now working directly with Entergy executives in Beaumont.

Lawyers for LHRA have negotiated a settlement in lieu of condemnation. Hopefully the Entergy issue will resolve amicably before the end of the year. The agreement will be on the December 14, LHRA board meeting agenda.

Traffic Light Alternative

At Russell-Palmer, contractors are still waiting for the City of Houston to change a pole mounted traffic signal to a wire-mounted one. That will enable them to continue installing box culverts when Centerpoint returns to finish moving its gas line. Centerpoint crews were MIA during the holidays.

Traffic signal in median at Northpark and Russell Palmer Road must be replaced with wire-mounted system for now.

Replacement of Ditch with Box Culverts

The City of Houston has approved the plan to detour a waterline across Northpark to the Parkwood Baptist Church (see upper right corner of photo above). The original contractors didn’t install the waterline deep enough. That created a conflict with the 6’x8′ box culverts being installed in the median. But the water-line detour should be resolved soon.

The culverts will replace the ditch in the median so that the road can be expanded inward, adding an extra lane of traffic in each direction.

Looking west in opposite direction from over Russell Palmer.

Plan for Next Three Weeks

Construction is always difficult, even in the best of times. The holidays make it even more so. Weather permitting, here are the priorities for the next three weeks.

  • Continue burying reinforced culvert at Outfall B depending on weather 
  • Alternatively, continue working on 8″ waterline on south side of Northpark between railroad tracks and King’s Mill
  • Install 12″ waterline in front of the Chick-Fil-A.
  • Complete filling in around new sidewalks west of US59
  • Mobilize on December 4th to begin tree relocation throughout the month of December.
  • Continued Retention Pond Excavation on north side at US59.

For More Information

For more information about the project including construction plans, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/3/23

2287 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

From Green to Gone in Three Weeks

I took the first picture below two years ago before the clearing of Northpark South started. All the rest were taken during the three weeks between November 9 and December 1, 2023.

Looking west toward the San Jacinto West Fork from the west end of Northpark Drive at Sorters-McClellan Road, this is what you saw before clearing started.

Northpark South, October 31, 2021. Note pocket of wetlands in middle. Intersection in bottom left was under eight feet of water during Harvey.
Clearing starts in wetlands. November 9, 2023.
Eight days later. November 17, 2023.
Another seven days. November 24, 2023.
December 1, 2023.

In the pictures above, note a sister development in the upper right corner called Northpark Woods by the same developer, Century Land Holdings of Texas, LLC. The developer totally cleared it, too.

Of course, it’s easier to grade the land, fill in wetlands, and put in streets that way. But it doesn’t slow floodwaters down or soak them up. That will soon be the job of homes and carpets. Lots of them.

The developer asked the Houston Planning Commission for a variance to build 235 homes on lots as small as 5000 square feet here.

Getting Rid of Green

What do you do with all that timber? Turn it into 2x4s? Mulch? Paper? Pencils? Something socially useful?

Why not just burn it and save all that trouble?

You can save the hauling costs.

Close up of burn pit.

Let people breathe it. Not a problem if you’re a developer with headquarters in Colorado!

Looking east toward Kingwood and Northpark Drive at top of frame.

This is how you go from green to gone in three weeks. If it were the only such story, it might not be worthy of mentioning. But you can see this same story being played out relentlessly across the watershed.

For More Information

To learn more about the flood risks in this area, see these posts:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/2/23

2286 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

TWDB to Consider $50 Million Grant for Lake Houston Gates

Save the date. On December 7, 2023, the Texas Water Development Board will consider a $50 million grant to the City of Houston for structural improvements to the Lake Houston Dam. The improvements will extend the life of the dam and enable rapid lowering of lake levels in advance of a flood.

The project, led by outgoing Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello, will benefit thousands of residential properties in the surrounding area.

Make sure the next mayor supports it. Get out and vote. Better yet, take your neighbors with you!

Background

The $50 million grant will complement funds from other sources including FEMA. The addition of new tainter gates will enable Lake Houston to shed water faster before and during storms, reducing the risk of flooding.

Until now, pre-releasing water has been risky. The old gates on the Lake Houston dam can release only 10,000 cubic feet per second. As a result, to significantly lower the lake, releases must start far in advance of a storm. But storms can veer away during that extended time. That increases the chances that the City could waste water.

After several years of study, the City has found that the optimal option would be to add tainter gates to the eastern, earthen portion of the dam. But the cost increased significantly compared to the crest gates initially favored.

Proposed location for new tainter gates
Proposed location for new tainter gates.

Earlier this year, the Legislature set aside more funds for the new tainter gates and specifically directed the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) to provide those funds. The TWDB’s executive administrator has recommended authorizing the funds. The Board just needs to approve them.

TWDB Board Meeting In Houston

The TWDB board will consider the approval at a rare Houston meeting at the Harris County Flood Control District in early December.

Date/Time:
Thursday, December 07, 2023; 9:30 AM
Location:
In person at 7522 Prairie Oak Drive
Michael Talbott Pavilion, Harris County Flood Control District Service Center
Houston, TX 77086

To view the webinar online, you must register for details.

Visitors who wish to address the Board should complete a visitor registration card and attend the meeting in person. The Texas Open Meetings Act prohibits visitor participation by telephone only. The visitor registration card is available and should be completed and submitted by e-mail to Customer Service no later than 8:00 a.m. on December 7, 2023, or in person at the registration desk.

Here is the full agenda. The $50 million grant for more gates is #14. Here is the backup information.

New, higher capacity gates were one of the three primary recommendations made by the Lake Houston Area Task Force after Harvey to mitigate flooding in the area. If all goes according to plan, construction could start in mid-2026, according to Costello.

Will Next Houston Mayor Support the Project?

Large infrastructure projects like this depend on unwavering political support. Completion of this project could take until the NEXT mayoral election. In the meantime, make sure we elect a mayor who will support the Gates Project until then. Keep it moving forward.

In that regard, John Whitmire has already demonstrated his support. If you haven’t yet voted, make sure you do. Take your neighbors, too. And then walk around your block and knock on some doors. Keeping this project will depend on turnout in the current runoff election.

So far, Acres Homes has had eight times more early voters than Huffman. And fewer than 4,000 people have voted in Kingwood.

As of 12/1/2023 according to Harris Votes.

The last day for early voting is December 5th. Polls are open from 7 am to 7 pm except for Sunday when they open at noon. Your last chance to vote is on Election Day, December 9th. For complete election information, visit Harris Votes.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/1/2023

2285 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Heavy Rainfall, Hail, High Winds, Tornados, Street Flooding Possible Today

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center and Harris County have issued outlooks for today that include risks of heavy rainfall, hail, high winds, tornadoes and street flooding.

NWS predicts an “enhanced risk” of severe weather (3 on a scale of 5) with a 10%-14% chance of tornados. NWS rates the excessive, heavy rainfall risk as slight (at least 15%).

Light rainfall has already begun in the Lake Houston area and will increase throughout the morning hours as storms approach and pass through. The threat should be past us by 3-4 PM, just in time for school pickup.

NWS severe weather outlook as of 12:01 a.m. CST.
NWS tornado outlook as of 12:01 a.m. CST.
NWS excessive rainfall outlook as of 1:55 a.m. Houston time.

Rainfall Accumulation

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, warns, “Forecasters have tended to increase rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours with the potential for storm clustering and cell training in southwest to northeast bands.”

Lindner says rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches appear to be common today with higher isolated totals of 4-5 inches especially for areas south of I-10, where activity may linger into the evening hours.

Moisture levels will be high for late November. Plus onshore winds will feed more moisture into the area. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely.

Some models show banding and training of storms this afternoon into the evening hours. But that’s for areas mainly south of I-10 and around Galveston Bay (SE Harris, Liberty, Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria Counties).

Potential for 1-2 Inches Per Hour, Street Flooding

Soils are generally dry over the area, but hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour may result in some street flooding at the usual flood-prone locations.

The front will sag off the coast tonight into early Friday, but you can expect additional disturbances across the region on Friday with showers and thunderstorms expanding inland toward the I-10 corridor.  

Wind and Hail

While much focus has been on the tornado threat, we also have the potential for damaging wind and large hail. Stronger showers may produce 40-50mph winds today. Additionally, gradient winds of 25-30mph with a few higher gusts will be common over the area for much of the day with the coastal locations seeing the stronger winds.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/30/23 at 7:40 a.m. based on information from NWS and Jeff Lindner

2284 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch Still Standing

The recent drought has reduced the rate of erosion under the Tree Lane/Bens Branch Bridge for now. But with wetter weather expected, we need to accelerate the repair effort. Recent pictures show the desperate need for repairs to the bridge. It’s next to Bear Branch Elementary School where more than 600 students attend grades K-5.

Power of Moving Water

The current state of this bridge and the area around it is a testament to the power of moving water … more than engineers designed the bridge to handle.

Water jetting under the bridge during storms has ripped away great slabs of concrete, eroded side walls, and partially blocked a storm drain outfall.

Condition of Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch on 11/24/23

It has also eroded the channel. Rip rap has done little to halt the erosion.

11/24/23. Condition of Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch.

Downcutting has exposed utility lines. And stormwater has carried chunks of concrete downstream like toothpicks.

11/24/23. Bens Branch downstream of Tree Lane Bridge.

Before Hurricane Harvey, the tree canopy in this area was so dense, one could barely see Bens Branch from the air. Now, there’s a gaping hole in the landscape caused by the “jetting.”

11/24/23. Downstream erosion of greenbelt caused by jetting water from under bridge.

As more and more water builds up behind the bridge during storms, it causes water to shoot under the bridge with greater pressure and accelerate erosion.

One can’t help but wonder whether the random and cumulative impact of several large storms caused this damage. Whether insufficiently mitigated upstream development helped nature along. Or whether the bridge simply reached the end of its normal life.

The City of Houston attempted to repair this bridge in March 2020. By January of 2023, it was worse than ever. And in June of 2023, I wrote about damage accelerating.

But a prolonged, intense drought last summer put an end to the acceleration. A close comparison of recent photos with those taken six months ago shows that the bridge now looks much like it did last June.

When Will Bridge Be Fixed?

I have learned that both the City of Houston and Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) are studying the bridge. In August, the City even allocated money to fix it. However, HCFCD worried about the impact to its Bens Branch channel. The two entities are now trying to reach a mutually agreeable solution.

Having lived near here for 40 years, one thing is clear to me. We can’t count on drought to prevent more erosion forever.

During El Niño years (like now), much of Texas is cooler and wetter than average. Northern storms generally track farther south, producing more clouds, rain and severe weather, according to the NWS.  

Perhaps we’ll get some good news on Tree Lane bridge repairs or replacement by Christmas. I’ll let you know when we get the engineering report.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/28/23

2282 Days since Hurricane Harvey

In Mayor’s Race, Only Whitmire Has Made Flooding a Priority

In April of 2022, State Senator John Whitmire contacted me. He wanted to set up a meeting to learn more about flooding in the Kingwood area.

Whitmire carved out the better part of a day for me. I gave him a tour of flooded areas to show him the extent and severity of flooding. I also set up two meetings for him. The first was with business leaders. The second was with civic leaders and residents who had flooded.

Reaching Across the Aisle

Almost two years before the mayoral runoff election that started today, Whitmire was carefully planning his campaign and building bridges to communities throughout the entire City. That should tell you something about the gentleman and why he has been so successful for so long. Whitmire has served in the Texas Senate for 40 years and in the Texas House for 10 years before that. He is the longest serving member of the Texas Senate.

Last year, when the Lake Houston Gates project was short of funding, Whitmire (a member of the Senate Finance committee) helped salvage it.

Whitmire also made flooding and infrastructure a part of his advertising campaign for mayor even though he doesn’t represent Kingwood in the Senate.

John Whitmire keyframe from campaign video.

A Study in Contrasts

I found Whitmire to be a good listener, soft spoken, considerate and thoughtful. I felt he was making a concerted effort to understand the needs of the community. It didn’t feel like political pandering.

In contrast, Sheila Jackson Lee did not reach out to me. Her campaign website makes no mention of flooding. And her website also shows an almost exclusive focus on issues relevant only to her core constituents.

If you want a mayor who listens to all of the people, not just some of the people, I recommend voting for Whitmire.

And then there’s this to consider. If elected Mayor, Jackson Lee would be responsible for managing more than 23,000 employees. But as this leaked audio shows, her management skills could use some polishing.

Latest Polls Show Large Undecided Block

A Houston Public Media/Houston Chronicle/UH Political Science and Population Health Poll released today shows Whitmire with the support of 42% of likely voters. Compare that to 35% for Jackson Lee and 22% undecided.

But I would not take anything for granted. There are three times more undecided voters than Whitmire’s current lead.

As Bill King, a former candidate for Mayor, points out, “During the City of Houston election runoff in 2019, turnout was 18%.” That gives a few committed voters enormous, outsized influence. They could determine the future of this city.

Said King, “The reality is that the City probably has far more effect on your daily life than the federal or state governments and this is possibly the most consequential City of Houston election in our lifetime. Don’t let this decision be made without your input.”

Voting Information

To learn where to vote, see this page on HarrisVotes.

To see City Council races on your ballot, see this page.

Election Day is December 9. But 41 early voting centers will be open Monday, November 27 through Tuesday, December 5. (7 a.m. – 7 p.m. Monday through Saturday, 12 noon – 7 p.m. on Sunday).

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/27/23

2281 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Woodridge Village Excavation and Removal Contract Ends

(Note: Within an hour of posting this, I received additional information from a source familiar with Federal grants and have updated the section on Funding below.) Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) and Sprint Sand & Clay have ended their Woodridge Village excavation and removal (E&R) contract. As of Friday afternoon, 11/24/23, Sprint had removed all of its equipment from the worksite, including the construction trailer at the entrance. See photos below.

Empty entrance on Woodland Hills where construction trailer once stood.
Looking NE at extent of excavation for new detention basin.
Same basin, but looking in opposite direction toward SW.

This will pause construction of additional stormwater detention capacity on Woodridge Village property.

Why did the contract end?

Funding Played Role in E&R Contract Termination

The new stormwater detention basin on HCFCD’s Woodridge Village property was part of a much larger project involving improvements to Taylor Gully. The combined Taylor Gully/Woodridge Village project involved funding from multiple sources:

  • U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw secured federal funding for Taylor Gully improvements in March 2022.
  • The Texas Water Development Board approved additional state funding in May.
  • Last summer, HCFCD also recommended the Taylor Gully/Woodridge project(s) for GLO/U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) CDBG-MIT funding.

The last comes with a firm, tight deadline for spending the money – Jan. 12, 2027 – three years away. It also comes with other “process” restrictions dictated by the CDBG-MIT funding.

Harris County requested a deadline extension. But because of the holiday, it is not clear whether HUD granted it.

Also, since originally posting this, an expert in Federal grants wrote to say, “The excavation and removal at Woodridge had to stop because Federal funds require a process to be followed. The excavation project that will be funded by CDBG mitigation funds has to follow NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act). It does not allow any activity until NEPA has been cleared. Once the site was officially approved for CDBG mitigation funds, everything had to stop. The agreement with GLO was executed a week or two ago.”

“A similar thing happened to the Sprint excavation and removal at the Dinner Creek Basin,” he added. “It’s one of those sad facts about federal grants. You have to follow their process and everything is done in a linear fashion.”

Flexible E&R Contracts Allow Early Termination

HCFCD’s excavation and removal contracts are very flexible. They let HCFCD get a head start on construction as it worked out financing, design and other project details.

The terms of Sprint’s E&R contract let Sprint excavate up to 500,000 cubic yards of material and sell the dirt on the private market to make a profit. Sprint was meeting its 5,000 cubic-yard/month minimum. They averaged 6,000 to 7,000 cubic yards per month during the last two years.

By the end of October, the company excavated 156,478 cubic yards – about a third of the maximum. However, the additional two-thirds at the current rate would have missed the HUD deadline by at least two years.

If there’s good news here, it’s that:

  • The amount excavated to date already puts the site very close to meeting Atlas-14 requirements. The “head start” worked.
  • Once construction resumes, it could sharply accelerate.

Final HCFCD Recommendations Not Yet Revealed

In December 2022, engineers presented their preliminary plans to the Kingwood community and sought public input on four alternatives. Their recommended alternative included:

  • Expanding a portion of Taylor Gully and lining it with concrete.
  • Building yet another 412 acre-foot stormwater detention basin on Woodridge Village.
  • Replacing the culverts at Rustling Elms with a clear-span bridge.

HCFCD has not yet revealed final construction plans to the community. But it appears that the pot is starting to boil. Stay tuned. More news will follow soon.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/26/23

2280 Days since Hurricane Harvey

40 Acres of Timber Turned into Toothpicks

In two weeks, approximately 40 acres timber has turned into toothpicks at the new Northpark South development. Clearing is now about two-thirds to three-quarters complete.

The development lies between Sorters-McClellan Road and the West Fork San Jacinto at the end of Northpark Drive. The developer, Century Land Holdings of Texas, LLC, hopes to build 236 homes, driveways, roads, and an 11.2 acre stormwater detention basin on a total of 54.4 acres.

If that sounds like a lot, Century has already applied for a variance from the City of Houston Planning Commission to create lots less than 5,000 square feet. Regardless, RG Miller Engineering still claims impervious cover will not exceed 66%. But that’s not the only curious takeaway from the RG Miller report.

No Mention of Wetlands

To achieve such density, Century will pave over wetlands. But the RG Miller report makes no mention of wetlands.

Northpark South Wetlands
National Wetlands Inventory shows wetlands in middle on far right.

USGS has documented wetlands on this property since at least 1961, as you can see in this topographic map viewer.

However the developer apparently has not received a wetland development permit from the Army Corps.

Red circle shows location of development. No wetland permits have been issued in this area and the drainage impact analysis does not contain the word “wetland.”

In addition, the imagery showing the wetlands (the empty crescent-wrench-shaped area in middle right of blue outline) is misdated.

The caption in the drainage analysis says the image is from 2018. But the homes in the top left of the frame were not built until late 2020. And the image itself is from late 2021. So why would the image below be dated two years earlier.

Shadows and vehicles in this image match a Google Earth Image from 12/11/2021, when the area was rated abnormally dry and drought was setting in.

Compare a Google Earth image taken on 2/23/2019 – before the onset of drought. When you zoom in a bit, you get a clearly different impression.

Scrolling back through 30 years of historical images in Google Earth shows evidence of periodic ponding in this location and distinctly different vegetation from the surrounding area.

Was the RG Miller image accidentally mislabeled or an attempt to show drier conditions that didn’t scream “wetlands”? We’ll probably never know.

According to one environmental expert I consulted, developers very often have consultants who assert that there are no wetlands on property. Therefore, they feel, there’s no need to involve USACE “because a permit isn’t necessary.”

The expert said, “In my mind, they are betting on not getting caught. They can save a lot of money by avoiding permits and those savings are apparently worth the risk.”

It’s also possible that the latest Supreme Court ruling on “Waters of the U.S.,” removed federal government protection for these wetlands. In that case, these wetlands would not require permitting.

Problems Building over Wetlands

The expert continued, “Comparing this information to the plans, it looks like there will be residential streets and houses on top of the historic wetlands. I would NOT feel safe living on top of a former wetland this close to the river. NO WAY! The land has a memory, deep in its soils, and I would expect future issues.”

Current Status of Clearing

I took the photos below on the afternoon of Friday, 11/24/23.

Looking west at extent of clearing in last two weeks. West Fork is beyond sand pits near top of frame. NorthPark Drive runs off bottom of frame.
Looking E toward Kingwood. Detention basin will stretch between the woods on left and the road on right in the area close to camera. Basin will drain into pond in lower right foreground.
Looking N toward a sister development (Northpark Woods) by same developer. Sand pit middle left belongs to another company.

High-Water Mark Shows Potential Danger

The image below shows where the new development sits in relation to the river and the high-water mark during Harvey.

Extent of flooding during Harvey relative to new development, according to nearby resident. Looking west down Northpark toward San Jacinto West Fork.

While Harvey was an extreme storm, keep in mind that pre-Harvey flood maps show inundation potential across most of Northpark South. And the new post-Harvey flood maps, which have not yet been released, will take in even more of the new development.

Buyer beware. There’s plenty here to chew on. Toothpick anyone?

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/25/23

2279 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.