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Flood Photos Raise Disturbing Sand-Mining Issues Again

Photos taken during last week’s flood raise disturbing questions all over again about sand mining so close to the San Jacinto.

Are:

Dikes strong enough? No.
Dikes high enough? No.
Setbacks from the river far enough? No.

Can:

Current flow through the mines? Yes.
The river stir up sediment? Yes.
The sediment escape the mines? Yes.

Will:

Miners convince legislators that the answers above are false? Yes.
More sediment in the river reduce conveyance downstream? Yes.
Anything change? No.

The sand mining photos below show dramatically that the river breached dikes, flowed through pits, stirred up sediment and carried it downriver. I have hundreds more, but these make the point.

Photos Taken May 3/4, 2024

In the picture below, the drainage channel bisects two abandoned sand mines that sit just downstream of the massive Hallett mine (out of frame to the left). Note current flowing from left to right and mixing with the clearer water in the drainage channel.

*Northpark Channel approximately 3,000 feet back from where it normally enters West Fork beyond bottom of frame.*

This photo and those below say at a glance how much sediment is being washed through and out of the sand mines.

Reverse angle in same area shows how large the mine complex is. At this point it is more than a mile wide (E to W) and 2.5 miles from N to S. River flows from upper right to upper left. Can you even tell where the river is?

*Leak in dike of Hallett Mine into San Jacinto West Fork. Note water flowing over another dike into another pond in the background.* *River flows between the foreground and background.*

*Higher, wider shot from same area as above. Notice how river has penetrated Hallett pit on right in multiple places.*

*River flowed through that pit at the Hallett Mine on the San Jacinto West Fork*.

*Breach at far end of Hallett pit above has been open since January. Note river current cutting through pit and back into river at lower left. River flows from right to left.*

Sediment Contribution to West Fork

The West Fork will remain above flood stage through tonight. It will be interesting to see how much new sediment works its way downstream. We will need a new river survey to document that.

The SJRA may also have to revise the conclusions of its recent sedimentation survey.

Luckily, the City of Houston has just started another dredging program to remove another 800,000 cubic yards of sediment above FM1960 where the East and West Forks come together.

*Callan Marine getting ready to dredge northern part of Lake Houston*

Good timing on that one.

Last question. Will the City be able to keep up with all the sediment coming downstream? No, in my humble opinion. At least not if we permit the sand mines to continue operating the way they do.

Gage readings at SH99 and US59 on the West Fork suggest that this was a 25 to 50 year flood. But the dikes should have been built to withstand a 100-year flood.

And while the mines above are built right next to the river, most other states require setbacks ranging from 100 to 1000 feet.

The Never-Ending Story

During Harvey, these same sand mines were implicated in contributing to the formation of sandbars downstream which reduced the conveyance of the West Fork. According to the Army Corps, the West Fork was 90 percent blocked in the area below. And that contributed to the flooding of thousands of homes and businesses.

*South of the Kingwood Country Club’s Island Course, Hurricane Harvey deposited several feet of sand. It took the Army Corps months to dredge this area.*

We seem to have developed a system whereby taxpayers subsidize miners. That only seems to encourage them to adopt more dangerous behaviors.

As one long-time resident who lives near the mines told me, “If Hallett thinks they can get away with something, they will try.”

In the miners’ defense, they claim they support the area’s growth. But that also entails clear-cutting thousands of acres. And you guessed it! That creates more erosion that clogs our rivers with even more sediment. More on that tomorrow.

The question is not whether we can live without sand mining. It’s whether we can have more responsible sand mining and development practices.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/7/2024

2443 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Flood Damage Revealed as Waters Recede, Please Report It

5/6/2024 Part II – Flood damage to an unknown number of homes and businesses is being revealed around Lake Houston as waters recede. Most of the serious flood damage seems confined to low-lying homes around rivers and streams.

As I drove around the headwaters of Lake Houston this afternoon from Kingwood to Huffman to Porter and back, I saw plenty of those.

In this post, I will first show some of those photos.

Then I will make a special request that could help this area receive federal assistance. Filling out a simple survey for the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) could help neighbors without flood insurance. But first the photos.

Photos From Harris and Montgomery County Taken on 5/6/24

Dunnam Road, Kingwood

Submitted by Sharai Poteet.

Northwood Country Estates in Huffman

Submitted by Max Kidd.

*Northwood Country Estates, Huffman*. *By Max Kidd.*

River Club Estates, Porter

Lakeside, Kingwood

Sadly, many of the homes I photographed today had been flooded before. And they hadn’t unflooded yet. As I write this on Monday May 6 at 9 PM, the gage at US59 still records a flood level of 53 feet – 10.5 feet above the normal river level for this area. So, some homes remain underwater and inaccessible.

The worst of the flooding may be over. But the West Fork is still at the major flood stage! It should go down to the moderate flood stage on Tuesday and the minor flood stage on Wednesday.

Request from Officials to Report Flood Damage

Elected officials called me today to request assistance. They’re not certain whether there will be enough damage from this storm to qualify for a disaster declaration and Federal assistance.

So please follow these instructions to report damage if you have it.

Go online to the Texas Division of Emergency Management.
You should be at a page that says, “Individual State of Texas Assessment Tool (iSTAT) Damage Surveys.”
Click on the “Spring Storms” link.

Why It’s Important

The objective of this survey is to help state and local emergency management officials across Texas identify and gain an understanding of flood damage that has occurred. If there are enough qualifying damaged structures in your county, residents of your county could qualify for Federal assistance.

Only one survey per family. And the surveys can only be filled out online. They are very simple and you should be able to do them from a phone if your laptop or desktop was destroyed. It should take no longer than five minutes if you have damage photos ready.

They give this guidance for photos.

\✅	Take multiple photos from different angles including close-up photos of specific points of damage and photos of the entire structure.
✅	Make sure your photos aren’t blurry or obscured.
✅	Double-check your address as well as the location pin on the in-survey map.
❌	Don’t submit reports of non-residential structures or outbuildings (barns, carports, fences, or cars).
❌	Don’t submit multiple iSTAT entries for the same residence.
❌	Don’t put yourself in a dangerous situation in order to take photos or submit an iSTAT entry.

Reporting damages to TDEM is a voluntary activity. It is not a substitute for reporting damage to your insurance agency, and does not guarantee disaster relief assistance.

Why You Should Take Survey Even if You Have Flood Insurance

Since Harvey, people who are uninsured and not required to have insurance may qualify for FEMA benefits. However, 500 people per county must qualify before anyone in the county gets anything.

Individuals may qualify for SBA loans, housing assistance, etc. It just depends on whether the thresholds are met. This survey is the first step in assessing needs.

As I drove around the headwaters of Lake Houston today, I saw several pockets of damage, usually close to the rivers. And I am sure more exist.

So please share this post with everyone you know to make sure all residents with qualifying damages report them to TDEM. Even if you have insurance, your neighbor may not. Beating that 500 minimum per county could help them and help your neighborhood recover faster.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/6/2024

2442 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Where The Water Came From: May Flood Dissected

May 6, 2024, Monday 2 AM – Flooding in the Houston area during the first week of May 2024 caused quite a stir. It made national headlines most days last week. Twenty percent of the region’s annual rainfall fell in two or three days in several places upstream from Lake Houston.

Water rose quickly along the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto. Several homes flooded in Kingwood. But thousands more were on the verge of flooding when water finally started to recede yesterday.

Thankfully, rainfall Sunday in most places was on the low side of predictions. And at this hour, all gages continue to head downward with the exception of one or two far upstream to the northwest.

As last week wore on, people rode an emotional roller coaster from uncertainty to anxiety, fear, relief and, for some, anger. If lives weren’t destroyed, they were certainly upended. Many are searching for someone to blame for sleepless nights.

So let’s try to dissect what happened during this event. Then, let’s try to draw some conclusions and identify questions that remain to be answered.

How Much Rain Fell Where

Fortunately, the Harris County Flood Warning System, USGS National Water Dashboard, and SJRA have put a lot of tools at our disposal.

The first thing to check is how much rain fell where. HarrisCountyFWS.org makes that easy.

Go to the home page.
Under Site Selection/Sites by Agency, select All.
Under Rainfall Data, select Last 7 days.
Click the Watersheds option in the View tab (top left)

You should get a map that looks like this.

*From Harris County Flood Warning System, 5/5/24 at 10PM*

Note the extreme figures:

18.16″ and 17.8 inches that fell above Lake Conroe’s Dam
16.52 inches south of the Lake Conroe Dam
17″ in the Peach and Caney Creek Watersheds,
16″ in the East Fork Watershed
15.4″ in the Luce Bayou Watershed.

How Runoff Converged

To get a better feeling for how these watersheds connect, consult the map below without all the visual interruptions. I’ve circled the area that drains into Lake Houston in red.

From this you can see that the upper San Jacinto watershed draining into Lake Houston is immense.

The Texas Water Development Board provides some statistics. The size of the:

Entire river basin is 3976 square miles.
Area circled in red is 2828 square miles.
Area draining into Lake Conroe is 445 square miles.

So…

71% of the entire river basin drains through Lake Houston. Only 15.7% of the area draining into Lake Houston comes from above the Lake Conroe Dam.
Calculations based on TWDB data.

There are no other dams in the watershed. So, 84.3% of the area is beyond the control of the SJRA including everything on the East Fork.

But still, did SJRA save the water up too long and then release it in a giant pulse that swamped Humble, Kingwood and Atascocita? That’s a little harder to tell. We’ll come back to that later.

But USGS gives you a fast, simple way to learn where and when water peaked.

Peak Flows Compared from Different Tributaries

Go to the USGS National Water Dashboard. It’s a central repository for all gages that measure discharge rates.

Note: the term “discharge” applies not only to water released from a dam. Hydrologists also use the term to describe water flowing under a bridge. Discharge is measured in Cubic Feet Per Second (CFS).

Let’s look at how major streams in the watershed compared.

East Fork and Tributaries Above Lake Houston

*East Fork at FM1485 in New Caney peaked at 68,000 CFS on Friday, May 3, 2024 *6:45 PM* .*

*Luce Bayou peaked on Friday May 3 at 4PM at 12,100 CFS.*

*Caney Creek peaked at 18,900 CFS Friday May 3 at 12:15AM.*

*Peach Creek in Splendora peaked at 10,300 CFS on May 3 at 9:30 AM.*

Peak discharges are not directly additive because the peaks occurred at different times.

West Fork

I won’t post graphs for every tributary on the West Fork. But let’s look at two key points: below the Lake Conroe Dam and at US59.

That’s the only portion of the river system that SJRA controls. All other West Fork watersheds, such as Spring, Cypress, Little Cypress, Willow and Lake Creeks, enter the river below there. They all peaked at different times.

But by the time water got to US59, the combined peak was slightly higher – 82,700 CFS.

*West Fork at 59. Peak discharge of 82,700 CFS occurred on May 4 at 10AM.*

Main Stem of San Jacinto Below Lake Houston

And by the time all the water from the East and West Forks went over the Lake Houston dam, the San Jacinto downstream in Sheldon peaked at 157,000 CFS.

*San Jacinto River at Sheldon downstream from Lake Houston peaked at 157,000 CFS on Saturday, May 4 at 11:30 AM.*

Conclusions

Several things should be clear at this point.

The SJRA release from Lake Conroe wasn’t responsible for all the water flowing into Lake Houston.
SJRA doesn’t control any water on the East Fork where the worst home flooding apparently occurred. Official damage reports may take weeks.
The broken gate on the Lake Houston Dam (one of four with a combined release rate of 10,000 CFS) made no difference at the peak of the flood. By then, the 3160-foot-wide spillway was discharging a 5+ foot wall of water every second – more than 150,000 CFS, compared to 2,500.

Unanswered Questions

Having said that, I believe we definitely need to do an “after-action report” on this flood. Engineers need to answer questions, such as:

How much sooner should we have started pre-releasing water from Lake Houston to have made a difference?
Did SJRA wait too long to start releasing? Would an earlier release at a lower rate have made a difference?
Did the new SJRA strategy of throttling back releases every 2 hours help downstream? Or harm anyone upstream?
Why is it taking so long (almost 7 years) to figure out how to add more floodgates on Lake Houston?
Why don’t we have more upstream detention yet, one of the basic mitigation strategies identified after Harvey?
What was the role of Colony Ridge in the East Fork flooding? It covers an area 50% bigger than Manhattan and has virtually no detention basins holding water back from the East Fork. How did they pull that off?
When this flood recedes, will we see that sediment has once again reduced conveyance?
Why is the Lake Houston Area, which drains an area bigger than Harris County (and which has the most severe flooding in the county) getting so little help from Harris County? We’ve received only $39 million out of more than $1.9 billion spent since Harvey on flood mitigation. That’s 2%.

We need to start these conversations now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/6/2024

2442 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Worst of Kingwood Flooding May Be Over, But More Heavy Rain On Way

May 4, 2024 Part II – The worst of this week’s Kingwood flooding may be over, but more heavy rain is on the way.

At 2 PM today, flooding on the East Fork and West Fork San Jacinto Rivers was finally receding. Early even. And lower than expected.

But another storm could drop heavy rainfall on the area tonight. As a result: the National Weather Service (NWS) is keeping a flood watch in effect through Sunday night. NWS predicts that we could get another 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts of 4-8 inches possible.

Earlier and Lower Peaks than Previously Expected

The National Weather Service revised its previous estimate for the West Fork downward shortly after the gage indicated water at US59 was receding. The West Fork was not supposed to peak until early tomorrow morning. And then it would have peaked almost 4 feet higher.

*NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, Sat. 5.4.24 at 5PM.*

The East Fork started receding last night at FM1485. Water in the Lake Houston Area started trending down late this morning as predicted. That limited Kingwood flooding somewhat.

Even the water level at the dam is going down (though it’s still six feet above normal).

This is welcome news for all Kingwood residents and their manicurists.

But whether Kingwood flooding continues to go down will depend on the amount of new rain we get. Mother Nature can be a tease sometimes.

Little Housing Damage, Rampant Street Flooding

This morning, I journeyed out with a drone and a Nikon. The most housing damage I saw was on Dunnam Road. I heard of other housing damage, i.e., in Woodstream, Atascocita Point, Kingwood Lakes and Kingwood Greens. But it tended to be isolated.

That’s little consolation for the people who got wet. But it’s a great relief for the vast majority of people who didn’t.

The Dunnam Boat Launch’s Self-Serve Bait Shop was under 17 feet of water according to the owner, who intends to rebuild. Much of her equipment was swept downstream.

Street flooding, however, was rampant and widespread from Woodstream down to Royal Shores on the East Fork and all along the West Fork, past US59.

I also saw lots of floodwater creeping toward homes. But most stopped short of entering homes.

As a consequence, this storm may become the future benchmark for Kingwood flooding. It will set the standard for how much floodwater the area can handle without major housing damage. The saving grace was homes elevated above street level.

Kingwood Flooding In Pictures

Here are more than three dozen shots that summarize what Kingwood flooding looked like on the ground today. Some impacted areas were the direct result of the river overflowing. Others were caused by “backflow flooding.” That’s when high water in the river keeps won’t let channels, streams and storm drains empty.

Please note: I couldn’t get everywhere because of blocked streets and the range of my drone.

*Entrance to East End Park near Riverchase*

*Looking W toward the Docks shopping center and HEB in distance.*

*Memorial Hermann Northeast Convenient Care Center (left) on Kingwood Drive. Parking lot under water.*

*West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge over Bens Branch.*

*Approach to West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge under water. Police closed off road.*

*West Lake Houston Bridge over West Fork closed to traffic due to approaches being under water.*

*Kings Harbor. Riverwalk under water. River up to Raffa’s, Zammitti’s and Sharky’s.*

*Looking east along Hamblen Road and West Fork San Jacinto*

*Looking N across Hamblen Road toward Laurel Springs RV Resort and Lakewood Cove.*

*Old Humble ISD Ag Barn at Deer Ridge Park*

*West Side of 59 looking south toward Deerbrook Mall and Costco. Note submerged cars (lower right).*

*Lakeside Area near confluence of Spring Creek (left) and West Fork (splitting off to right)*

*Looking E across 59 toward Lake Houston. Note Railroad Bridge in Background. NO logjams since new construction.*

*Photo by Melissa Balcom on Hamblen Road*. *Her son and dog evacuating on foot.*

Please Share Your Flood Pics

If you have dramatic flood photos, please send them in through the Submissions page on this website so I can share and archive them.

Let’s pray that the worst is over for now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/24

2440 Days since Hurricane Harvey

When Flood Peaks Will Arrive, How High They Will Get

(Updated 8:30 AM 5/4/24 with current inundation map) This post explains when flood peaks will arrive in the Humble-Kingwood-Huffman Areas and how high they will get. It also includes evacuation advice from local officials and a photographic look at flooding so far.

Peaks Arriving at Separate Times

After almost 20 inches of rain this week in the headwaters of the East Fork and West Fork San Jacinto rivers, the runoff has finally worked its way down to the Lake Houston Area. Luckily, the crests will arrive at separate times. That should reduce flooding somewhat. The peaks won’t build on top of each other.

The National Weather Service has already reduced its predicted peak for the West Fork by one foot. And the SJRA has reduced its release rate from Lake Conroe to about a third of what it was yesterday morning.

East Fork Flood Crest Moving to Lake Houston Tonight

The East Fork crest has moved into Harris County at FM1485 and should arrive in Lake Houston tonight.

*East Fork at FM1485 at county line. Peak of 77.75 feet arrived near 7 PM tonight after rising 11.5 feet through the day.*

The waters will spread out somewhat as they approach Lake Houston, reducing their height. But 11.5 feet is a hefty rise in one day!

Farther upstream in Cleveland, the East Fork flood peak started trending down last night. By this morning, it had fallen 9 feet.

Expect rapid, radical rises on the East Fork as the flood peak moves toward Lake Houston.

West Fork Peak Migrates Downstream

The West Fork flood peak should reach the US59 bridge sometime tomorrow night. Today, the crest moved past SH99.

*In 24 hours the West Fork crest rose 12 feet* *at SH99.*

By tomorrow, the river at SH99 should start receding and fall below flood stage early Sunday morning.

In the meantime, downstream at the US59 bridge, the West Fork is at 56.38 feet and should rise to 61 by midnight tomorrow.

*The West Fork won’t drop from major flooding to moderate until Monday, May 6.*

NWS doesn’t compile similar graphs for the Lake Houston Dam. But tonight a five foot wall of water was going over the spillway.

Here’s how that will affect people below the dam.

*At Sheldon, the river will stay above major flood stage until Monday night.*

Mayor Prioritizes Kingwood Second Day in Row

Mayor John Whitmire, Council Member Fred Flickinger, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey and State Representative Charles Cunningham held another press conference this afternoon in Kingwood to urge people in at-risk areas to evacuate.

Their primary messages:

Humble, Kingwood and Huffman are in the eye of this storm. We are the most affected watershed in Harris County: the place where the two biggest rivers converge at the tip of a massive funnel.
Floodwaters can build rapidly and cut people off.
High-water rescues can put both you and first responders at risk.
Better safe than sorry.

Local officials plan flood response strategy at Firehouse 102 in Kingwood. L to R: Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE; Houston Mayor John Whitmire; State Rep. Charles Cunningham; and City Council Member Fred Flickinger.

How bad could it get? See the inundation maps and photos below.

Compare These Two Inundation Maps

To underscore their points, compare these two inundation maps, from the Harris County Flood Control District’s Flood Warning System.

Just three days ago, the upper Lake Houston Area looked like this.

Yesterday, the map looked like this.

*Saturday 5/4/24 at 8am*. *From Harris County Flood Warning System.*

Flood waters can build rather quickly, stranding those who dally.

You can use the historical feature in the inundation mapping tool to see where the crest was near your address in previous floods. But make sure you know when the crest arrived. Who can remember the exact day and hour when Harvey’s flood peak arrived near you?

Experiment. Look at several days before and after when you think the flood peaks arrived.

Specific Advice from Harris County’s Meteorologist

Here’s evacuation advice from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner by watershed. It has not changed since yesterday. So if you read it then, skip down to photos taken today as the flood started to build.

East Fork San Jacinto

Peak of flood wave is moving into NE Harris County. Widespread severe flooding is in progress. Numerous water rescues have been conducted today. The river continues to quickly rise as the crest moves downstream..

Impacted subdivisions:

Idle Wilde
Idle Glen
Cypress Point
River Terrace
Magnolia Point
Northwood Country Ests

Eastern portions of Kingwood (lowest areas closest to the river):

Riverchase
Woodspring Forest
Woodstream

West Fork San Jacinto River near SH99 and I-45:

Major flooding is in progress upstream and downstream of I-45 including large portions of River Plantation and portions of Woodloch downstream to SH 242 and SH 99. The river is at crest and will begin a slow fall tonight with a more rapid fall on Saturday.

West Fork San Jacinto River at Humble (US 59)

River is rising from upstream inflows… Widespread low land flooding is in progress and will worsen through the night into Saturday. The river will peak Saturday afternoon and evening with a long flat crest and slow recession. The river will rise another 5-6 feet into Saturday.

Flooding of streets and structures near the river and its tributaries is likely along the river. Portions of the following subdivisions are likely to be impacted with the greatest impacts nearest the river.

Belleau Woods
Rivercrest
Northshore
Forest Cove (nearest the river)
Kings River Estates
Atascocita Shores
Kings Point
Kings Harbor
Kings River
Kingwood Greens
Fosters Mill
Kingwood Lakes
Barrington
Trailwood
Deer Ridge Estates

The following areas will be completely flooded with several feet of water: Deerwood Country Club, Deer Ridge Park, River Grove Park, Kingwood Country Club.

Elevated residents near the river should be prepared to be cut-off through the weekend.

San Jacinto River Near Sheldon

Major flooding is expected at all locations along the lower portions of the river.

Rio Villa is now cut-off as well as low-lying, river-bottom areas around Highlands and HWY 90.

High velocity flows may damage vessels and barges near I-10 and result in loss of mooring.

Flow may approach the I-10 river bridge west of the river crossing. Additionally, high flows will result in the suspension of Ferry service.

Kingwood Photos Taken Before Peaks Arrived

I took these photos this morning and afternoon.

Let me start with one from the West Fork. It shows the area near the Hallett mine between Northpark Drive, FM1314, Sorters-McClellan Road and the river.

This photo is farthest upstream of this group, all taken on the West Fork and hints at what’s headed our way. Note how the river reaches the treetops. Can you even see where the river is?

*Bens Branch at Kingwood Town Center. Left branch comes from Montgomery County. Right originates in Kingwood.*

*Kings Harbor riverwalk was already under water. Raffa’s could be threatened tomorrow.*

*Edgewater Park at US59 and West Fork. Turnaround under bridge was closed.*

*Flooded homes near confluence of Spring and Caney Creeks, and West Fork.*

*Hamblen Road flooded yesterday cutting off homes.*

*Homes flooded to second floor on Riverbend.*

*River Grove Park Soccer Fields and Boat Launch.* *Approximately 2 PM.*

*Paddleboard at Kingwood Country Club on the driving range.*

Paddleboard will probably not be safe in the coming days. But after looking at heartbreak all morning, it brought a smile.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2024

2440 Days since Hurricane Harvey

SJRA Reducing Lake Conroe Release Rate

May 3, 2024 – As of 10 PM last night, the level of Lake Conroe had declined slightly for several hours. That indicates inflows are now less than outflows. Accordingly, San Jacinto River Authority Board Member Mark Micheletti worked out an agreement with the SJRA General Manager to start reducing the lake’s release rate.

By midnight the release rate was down from 69,585 cubic feet per second (CFS) to 64,797. And the lake level was down from 205.13 to 204.79.

This post contains information about the new release strategy, updated river and weather forecasts, plus a list of stunning rainfall totals from yesterday.

New Lake Conroe Release Strategy

During Harvey, many downstream residents felt the SJRA released too much for too long to return the lake to normal as quickly as possible.

The new agreement reached late tonight will have dam operators lowering the release rate in 2500 CFS increments. They will then wait two hours to see if the water level is increasing or decreasing, and adjust the next increment accordingly.

This strategy lets them delay additional decreases if necessary. For instance, if new heavy rainfalls increase inflows.

Dam operators still have the flexibility to release more if necessary. But it avoids leaving the release rate too high for too long when unnecessary.

All things considered, this strategy should protect downstream residents as much as possible. It also gives Lake Conroe operators a safety margin.

No Significant Changes to Flood Forecasts Since This Afternoon

As of 9:31 PM, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner had no changes to ongoing river forecasts. He emphasized that significant flood waves will continue moving down the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto into the weekend.

New Weather Forecast Reduces Rainfall Risk

Compared to yesterday’s weather forecast, however, Lindner also revised the expected overnight rainfall downward.

“Expect a mostly calm night with a low-end chance of a few showers toward morning. With heating on Friday and the approach of another thunderstorm complex from North Texas, there will be an increasing chance of rainfall during the day,” he said. “At this time. this complex of storms looks fairly progressive during the afternoon hours, but there is some uncertainty on how the storms evolve and how fast they cross the area.”

He says that additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with slightly higher isolated totals can be expected on Friday. This additional rainfall is included in the river forecast models and should not greatly alter the current river forecast.

See river forecast summaries below.

East Fork San Jacinto River at New Caney (FM 1485)

Mandatory evacuation is still in effect for the eastern side of the river from FM 1485 to Lake Houston.

“Forecasted water levels will rise 7 feet higher than earlier this week. Structures on the ground will be flooded to rooftops levels,” says Lindner. “Elevated structures will be flooded. For reference, the forecasted water level is 4 ft below Harvey.” Similar to earlier this week, the rapid rise of several feet is expected late Friday into Saturday.

Impacted subdivisions:

Idle Wilde
Idle Glen
Cypress Point
River Terrace
Magnolia Point
Northwood Country Ests
Low-lying eastern portions of Kingwood, such as:
- Riverchase
- Woodstream
- Woodspring Forest

West Fork San Jacinto River at Humble (US 59)

The river will rapidly rise from upstream inflows. It will reach major flood levels and peak near 62 ft on Saturday. Widespread low-land flooding will occur. It will likely impact lower areas in West Fork subdivisions such as:

Belleau Woods
Rivercrest
Northshore
Forest Cove
Kings River Estates
Atascocita Shores
Kings Point
Kings Harbor
Kings River
Kingwood Greens
Fosters Mill
Kingwood Lakes
Barrington
Trailwood
Deer Ridge Estates

Kingwood residents should expect flooding of streets and structures near the East Fork, West Fork, and their tributaries.

Harris County is revising a potential inundation map that circulated Thursday on Facebook. Lindner says to expect the type of flooding we saw during the Memorial Days storm in 2016.

The following areas will be completely flooded with several feet of water: Deerwood Country Club, Deer Ridge Park, River Grove Park, Kingwood Country Club.

Elevated residents near the river should be prepared to be cut-off through the weekend if they don’t evacuate.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River at I-45

Major flooding is imminent upstream and downstream of I-45 including large portions of River Plantation and portions of Woodloch downstream to SH 242 and SH 99. Flows may approach the I-45 bridge deck. The current forecast is about 1 ft below Harvey recorded levels.

San Jacinto River Below Lake Houston

Major flooding is expected at all locations along the lower portions of the river.

Rio Villa will be completely inundated and cut-off and well as low lying in the river bottom around Highlands and HWY 90.

High velocity flows may damage vessels and barges near I-10 and result in loss of mooring.

Flow may approach the I-10 river bridge west of the river crossing. Additionally, high flows will result in the suspension of Ferry service.

Spring Creek

According to Lindner, the creek is rising on the upper end due to flows from Waller and Montgomery Counties. Minor flooding is in progress along the upper portions of Spring Creek at Hegar Rd. Water levels along the creek are high, but any flooding is minor and to rural areas near the creek.

Willow Creek

Willow Creek has crested and is slowly falling.

Yesterday’s Storm: Gage Readings

The storm that swept through southern Montgomery and northern Harris Counties yesterday dropped impressive amounts of rainfall.

Harris County Flood Control District released the following totals at 7 PM Thursday.

8.24 in. – 1050 Spring Creek @ I-45
8.2 in. – 1320 Willow Creek @ Kuykendahl Road
7.76 in. – 755 San Jacinto River @ Lake Houston Pkwy
7.2 in. – 785 Peach Creek @ FM 2090
7.12 in. – 790 East Fork San Jacinto @ FM 1485
6.92 in. – 795 East Fork San Jacinto @ FM 2090
6.8 in. – 765 San Jacinto River @ SH 99
6.64 in. – 1745 Cedar Bayou @ FM 1960
6.6 in. – 1960 Luce Bayou @ SH 321
6.12 in. – 770 San Jacinto River @ SH 242
5.88 in. – 780 Caney Creek @ FM 2090
5.76 in. – 1040 Spring Creek @ FM 2978
5.64 in. – 1940 Luce Bayou @ FM 2100
5.48 in. – 1340 Willow Creek @ SH 249
5.12 in. – 1056 Mill Creek @ FM 1774
5.04 in. – 1950 Luce Bayou @ SH 99
5.0 in. – 1080 Spring Creek @ Decker Prairie-Rosehill Road
4.96 in. – 760 San Jacinto River @ US 59

Locations Out of Banks, Flooding Likely

HCFCD also reported that the following streams/channels were out of their banks and flooding was likely.

710 San Jacinto River @ Rio Villa
720 San Jacinto River @ US 90
740 Lake Houston @ FM 1960
760 San Jacinto River @ US 59
780 Caney Creek @ FM 2090
785 Peach Creek @ FM 2090
790 East Fork San Jacinto @ FM 1485
795 East Fork San Jacinto @ FM 2090
1054 Mill Creek @ FM 1486
1074 Walnut Creek @ Joseph Road
1084 Threemile Creek @ Joseph Road
1090 Spring Creek @ Hegar Road
1195 Mound Creek @ FM 362
1950 Luce Bayou @ SH 99

Flooding Possible

The following streams were still in banks, but flooding was possible.

755 San Jacinto River @ Lake Houston Pkwy
765 San Jacinto River @ SH 99
770 San Jacinto River @ SH 242
796 East Fork San Jacinto @ SH 105
1050 Spring Creek @ I-45
1055 Bear Branch @ Kuykendahl
1076 Birch Creek @ Riley Road
1086 Threemile Creek @ FM 362
1110 Cypress Creek @ Cypresswood Drive
1186 Live Oak Creek @ Penick Road
1190 Little Mound Creek @ Mathis Road
1320 Willow Creek @ Kuykendahl Road
1340 Willow Creek @ SH 249
1740 Cedar Bayou @ US 90
1745 Cedar Bayou @ FM 1960
1960 Luce Bayou @ SH 321
2200 Houston Ship Channel @ Juan Seguin Park

Resources for More Information

To see:

Real-time rainfall and stream levels near you, visit the Harris County Flood Warning System.
More about watersheds and channels, visit the Harris County Flood Education Mapping Tool.
River forecasts, visit the National Weather Service Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service.
Lake Conroe Levels and release rates, visit the SJRA.
Lake Houston levels, visit the Coastal Water Authority.
The elevation of a home, business or street, visit the USGS National Map.

If in doubt about whether you will flood, remember. Better safe than sorry. If you evacuate needlessly, the most you lose is a day or two. But if you don’t and you flood, you could lose everything.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/3/24

2439 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Release Rate at 90% of Harvey

5/2/24 at 4:30 PM – The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) is releasing water at the rate of 69,545 cubic feet per second (CFS from Lake Conroe. That’s down a couple thousand from the 71,835 they released earlier this afternoon, the second highest release rate ever – 90% of the all-time record of 79,000 CFS during Hurricane Harvey.

At that rate, NOAA predicted the San Jacinto West Fork at US59 would peak at 62.4 feet. Since then, they’ve reduced that back a bit to 62.2.

However, the level of Lake Conroe is still rising slightly. It stands at 205.13 MSL (mean feet above sea level) as of 4:30 PM.

And local leaders including Houston Mayor John Whitmire, State Rep. Charles Cunningham and City Council Member Fred Flickinger met in Kingwood to plan emergency response with first-responders.

More Rain on Way

The level of Lake Conroe is up significantly since this morning. And another rain storm is headed our way tonight. The National Weather Service predicts a 40% chance of more thunderstorms tonight. Anything that falls will be on top of almost 7 inches of rain received in the Kingwood area earlier today.

Flood watches and warnings remain in effect at the present time. Any new rain will fall onto already saturated soils, resulting in rapid runoff.

SJRA Pushing Up Against Limit

But the SJRA is running out of room. At 207, they flood Lake Conroe homes and endanger the dam, according to Mark Micheletti, an SJRA board member who lives in Kingwood.

Micheletti has demanded that SJRA operators throttle back releases as soon as they stabilize the Lake Conroe’s level. The SJRA hopes to keep a safety margin by not letting the lake level get above 206, but nature, not engineers will make that call.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty has many Kingwood people in panic mode wondering whether they should evacuate. I’ve been deluged (pardon the pun) with requests for information.

Whitmire Visits Kingwood to Plan Flood Response

Houston Mayor John Whitmire came to Kingwood this afternoon to meet with first responders and area leaders. He wanted to personally see the situation and assess what the area needs. He met with Fire Chief Samuel Peña, first responders, State Representative Charles Cunningham and City Council Member Fred Flickinger at Fire Station 102 on West Lake Houston Parkway.

*CM Fred Flickinger (center) met with Mayor Whitmire (right), Chief Samuel Peña (left) and other first responders at Fire Station 102 this afternoon* *on West Lake Houston Parkway.*

Peña emphasized the need for vehicles to stay out of high water. The fire department had already made numerous high water rescues today.

*State Representative Charles Cunningham (left) also helped plan the emergency response*.

At the meeting, Whitmire also said that he had discussed evacuation orders for certain subdivisions with Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo. After Harvey, “communication with residents” and “warning time” were identified as two of the primary things officials needed to improve.

Current East Fork Predictions and Evacuation Orders

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the County has issued evacuation orders for the east side of the East Fork San Jacinto from FM1485 to Lake Houston. (Lake Houston Park is on the west side.) Forecasted water levels will rise 7-8 feet higher than earlier this week. Structures on the ground will be flooded to rooftop levels. Elevated structures will be flooded.

For reference, the forecasted East Fork water level is 3 ft below Harvey.

Impacted subdivisions:

Idle Wilde
Idle Glen
Cypress Point
River Terrace
Magnolia Point
Northwood Country Estates

Current West Fork San Jacinto Predictions and Warnings

The West Fork is rapidly rising from upstream inflows. It will reach major flood levels and will rise to near 62 ft on Saturday. Widespread low-land flooding will occur impacting the following subdivisions:

Belleau Woods
Rivercrest
Northshore
Forest Cove
Kings Point
Atasocita Shores

In Kingwood, Lindner expects flooding of streets and the lowest structures nearest the river. He also predicts backwater impacts along the tributaries. That means high river levels could force water in channels and tributaries to back up.

The following areas will be completely flooded with several feet of water: Deerwood Country Club, Deer Ridge Park, and Kingwood Country Club.

Elevated residents near the river should be prepared to be cut-off through the weekend.

I have queried HCFCD about the list of subdivisions above. It seems incomplete. But I have not yet heard back.

San Jacinto River Below Lake Houston

Major flooding is expected at all locations along the lower portions of the river.

Rio Villa will be completely inundated and cut-off.

High velocity flows may damage vessels and barges near I-10.

Flow may approach and potentially reach I-10 on the west side of the river.

Real Time Inundation Monitoring

To monitor what’s going on around you, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner suggests using the Real-Time Inundation Mapping Tool found in the Harris County Flood Warning System. From the home page, just click “Inundation Map” in the upper left tool bar, then zoom into the area of interest.

*As of 4:22 PM on 5/2/24*. *Note large areas already inundated.*

Easy Way to Find the Elevation of Your Home

Don’t know the elevation of your home? Consult this post about how to find it in the USGS National Map.

More updates later. SJRA may issue another statement at 8PM.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 4:30 PM, Thursday, May 2, 2024

2438 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Increasing Release Rate After Torrential Rain

5/2/24 Noon Update: Since publishing this, Lake Conroe has continued to rise and the SJRA has increased the release rate to 66,100 CFS. – Heavy storms dumped 10-12 inches of rain in isolated areas north of Lake Conroe last night. Most areas experienced 5-7 inches. As a result, Lake Conroe has increased its release rate to 60,455 cubic feet per second and it could go higher.

The area north of Lake Conroe has received more than 17 inches in the last week.

Engineers are currently modeling several different scenarios. The current inflow is more than two times greater than the outflow. The current release rate is already the second highest in the history of Lake Conroe.

Current Situation

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, significant flash flooding is ongoing from north of HWY 105 to southern Montgomery County and the northern portions of Harris County.

At 8:27 am, radar showed the storm had moved into northern Harris, and northern Liberty Counties.

*RadarScope Pro Screen Capture at 8:23 AM, 5.2.24, Orange indicates 5″.*

It dumped 6 inches of rain in my gauge in two hours. And the total is still climbing.

Such high hourly rainfall rates result in street flooding. Lindner warned people not to travel unless absolutely necessary.

According to Lindner, “There may be a break in the activity in the afternoon hours before another complex of storms arrives overnight into Friday morning with additional heavy rainfall. But confidence in the forecast is not high.”

Impact of Rains

“Significant rainfall has also occurred over the headwaters of the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. New flood waves will certainly be generated on both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River,” Lindner added. The same holds true for Lake Livingston and the Trinity River.

The heavy runoff over already saturated grounds will migrate downstream Friday into the weekend.

The SJRA does not have a dam on the East Fork and can’t control it. Dam releases on the West Fork do not impact the East Fork, but do impact Lake Houston.

Lake Conroe Release Rate Increasing, Max Uncertain

Lake Conroe virtually quadrupled its release rate from 17,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) at 7 AM to 60,455 CFS at 9:45 AM.

The lake level at 10:48 AM had reached 204.4 – 3.4 feet above normal.

Mark Micheletti, San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) board member, said that SJRA engineers are modeling several release scenarios. So the ultimate release rate is uncertain as of this writing.

The flowage easement at Lake Conroe is 207. That’s the elevation at which homes start to flood.

Some people will criticize the SJRA for not releasing more water sooner. However, it was not an easy call.

Lake Houston was already flooding from the East Fork. And a massive release coming down the West Fork could have flooded homes.

Micheletti added, “Hydrographs are useless in a situation like this because you don’t yet know what the release will be,” he added.

During Harvey, the SJRA released 79,000 CFS. So, they are already at 75 percent of the devastating Harvey release rate.

But even with that, the current release rate is only about one third of the estimated water coming into the lake. “So that’s our challenge,” said Micheletti. The release rate will almost certainly go higher.”

The Harris County Flood Warning system showed that the San Jacinto West Fork is still within banks, but that likely won’t last long.

Before the heavy rains moved south this morning, river gages on the East and West Forks were dropping slowly as floodwaters receded from earlier in the week. But we’re about to experience a second wave there.

If you’re in a place that has flooded before, the safest course of action is to start developing an action plan now.

River Predictions

At 10 AM, Lindner released new hydrographs for the West Fork, East Fork, and the area below Lake Houston.

West Fork

A rise to flood stage will occur today with a rise above major flood levels on Friday. Widespread low land flooding near the river is expected. The forecast may need to be increased more because of the uncertainty over Lake Conroe releases.

While there will be widespread low land flooding, the lowest structures in Kingwood are not impacted until over 60-62ft. Expect this level of water in the river to create backwater in tributaries that could lead to additional flooding.

A reader sent in this photo of the new Northpark South development between the West Fork and Sorters-McClellan Road.

*NorthPark South already underwater from rains. 5.2.24 at 11 AM. Photo by Jody Binnion.*

East Fork

A significant rise on the East Fork is expected as the upstream flood wave moves downstream. Forecasted water levels will reach 6-8 ft higher than earlier this week. This expected flood level will be higher than TS Imelda and will be similar to October 1994. Even elevated structures may be flooded, according to Lindner.

Below Lake Houston

Other Flooding

As I write this, I have received word that Taylor Gully is flooding and parts of nearby streets are closed.

White Oak Creek is also flooding. Royal Pines, the new development on White Oak at the northern end of West Lake Houston Parkway, has also flooded neighbors’ yards and a garage.

Flash flooding is ongoing along Willow and Spring Creeks, which are rising rapidly. Flooding along these creeks is becoming likely. Widespread street flooding and some structure flooding is possible.

A training band of thunderstorms will produce another 2-4 inches of rainfall on top of the already 4-6 inches that has fallen in these watersheds.

Pardon the pun, but the situation is very fluid. Sometimes new information comes in faster than I can update it.

I will post updates including photos when the rain lets up.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 10:00 AM on 5/2/24

2438 Days since Hurricane Harvey

East Fork Homes Flooding, Another Flood Watch Issued

May 1, 2024 – Even as East Fork homes are flooding, the National Weather Service has issued another Flood Watch for the region.

Monday’s Storm Brings Wednesday’s Flood

The stormwater from last Sunday night/Monday morning that’s flooding homes near the East Fork San Jacinto could get reinforcements tonight. Another powerful storm is approaching and will collide with moisture laden air from the Gulf later day.

That caused the National Weather Service to issue another flood watch from 10 PM this evening until Thursday evening for Houston and Harris County.

That same NWS bulletin also says that a flood warning remains in effect for the East Fork San Jacinto near New Caney affecting Liberty, Montgomery and Harris Counties.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, warned in his midday report that “Widespread amounts of 2-5 inches are likely with isolated totals of 6-9 inches. High hourly rainfall rates will be likely on the order of 2-4 inches which will produce rapid onset flash flooding.”

Lake Conroe and Lake Livingston Already Taxed to Max

The additional rainfall could overburden already overtaxed watersheds. “There is no capacity at either Lake Livingston or Lake Conroe,” said Lindner. “Additional inflows and run-off will have to pass through the dams’ floodgates.”

Although Lindner expects the heaviest rains to stay north of Harris County, “There is some potential that some of the heavy rainfall reaches into northern Harris County overnight,” he added.

If so, the storm could impact Spring, Cypress, Little Cypress, and Willow Creeks as well as the tributaries in northern Waller and southwestern Montgomery Counties, such as Lake Creek.

Lindner says significant rises will be possible depending on the rainfall amounts and patterns. Flash flooding will be likely where heavy rains occur.

That could deal a devastating blow to homes already flooding along the East Fork.

East Fork Photos Taken Morning of Mayday Flood

Pictures taken this morning between 9 and noon showed roads flooded out and many homes and vehicles already underwater.

*TXDoT closed FM1485 at the East Fork/Montgomery County line.*

Streets close to the river also flooded.

*Looking S. Casey Road on left flooding from East Fork on right.*

*Home with flooded vehicles and heavy equipment at Casey and Spaulding.*

I took more than a hundred photos like these this morning. Some people were lucky with the water stopping just feet from their homes. Other people were not so lucky. They will need help.

Colony Ridge, Plum Grove and FM2090

Farther north, I explored Colony Ridge and Plum Grove near FM2090.

*One of the main entrances to Colony Ridge* *where it approaches Plum Grove Road*

The water there was already starting to recede. But still, many roads were barely passable. Most smaller vehicles did not brave the water.

*Opposite angle, same intersection. Unable to see the sides of the road, traffic tried to stay close to the centerline to stay out of the ditches.*

Looking NW over East Fork. FM2090 was still passable, but water lapped at the bottom of the bridge. The East Fork completely flooded the abandoned sand mine (upper right) and swept sediment out of mine.

Ironically, even though I could see my way out of Colony Ridge (from the air), I could not get to FM2090 on the ground because of floodwaters. I had to drive south to SH99 to return home.

Dunnam Road Boat Launch

Back in Kingwood, I called a friend on Dunnam Road. She said her boat launch flooded and that water was lapping at the first house coming up the hill.

*Note water surrounding house adjacent to boat dock. Luckily it did not flood and water is receding as of 4PM.*

*This young man appeared to be making the most of the flood by giving his daughter a fishing lesson.* *A neighbor told me he’s been doing that since she was born!*

Posted by Bob Rehak on May 1, 2024

2437 Days since Hurricane Harvey

East Fork Predicted to Rise 15 Feet in Next 24 Hours

(Updated with more Subdivisions/Streets at 9PM Tuesday) As yesterday’s heavy rains work their way downstream, the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service forecasts that the East Fork at FM1485 will rise 15 feet in the next 24 hours.

As of noon Tuesday, NWS said the river had already reached the “Action Stage” at 56.85 feet. NWS predicts it will reach 71.9 feet by tomorrow at noon. “Major flooding” at that location begins at 69 feet.

*From NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at noon on 4/30/24*

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says, “Many of the structures in this area have been elevated, however isolated homes that remain on the ground will be subject to flooding at these levels.”

“Flooding similar to TS Imelda in 2019 is expected.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

FM1485 will be under several feet of water. Flows may even approach the deck of the Highway 99 bridge!

Subdivisions and Streets that Could Be Affected

Lindner specifically warned about flooding that could affect the following subdivisions and streets.

Magnolia Point (West end of Commons of Lake Houston)

Opal Way
Diamond
Mendencino
Lassen Villa
Glen
Magnolia
Hill
Calvins
Collins
Calaveras Creek

Flooding of streets is likely. Elevated homes will be cut-offSome structure flooding is possible for any homes on the ground in this area.

South of FM 1485 (east side of the river):

Spalding
Green
Jett
Casey

Some structure flooding is possible for any homes on the ground in this area.

Idle Glen subdivision:

Brookside
Chinquapin
River Side
E. San Jacinto
Glenwood
Dipping
Idlewild
Lazy Creek

Almost all of the homes in this area are elevated, but will be cut-off. Any homes on the ground will be flooded.

Northwood Country Estates:

Flooding of streets is likely. Elevated homes will be cut-off.
Disher
Bounds
Thomas
Davidson
A new 553-acre Friendswood development called Sila is in this area.

River Terrace:

Flooding of the following streets is likely. Elevated homes will be cut-off.
River Terrace
Elm
Pine
Cherry Laurel
Holly
Cypress

Cypress Point:

The following streets will be flooded (closest to the river). Elevated homes will be cut-off.
Blue Lake
Oak Knoll
Wild Oak
Birchwood

The East Fork should also rise 10-15 feet at FM2090.

East Fork at Cleveland

Farther upstream at Cleveland, the East Fork has already peaked and is beginning to recede after only reaching a moderate level of flooding.

Structure Flooding In Kingwood NOT Expected

Lindner added that, “Flooding will occur in the low lying areas of Kingwood that back up to the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. This is mostly all non-developed lands near the river or back yards with bulkhead that front the river. Structure flooding is NOT expected in Kingwood.”

Meanwhile, at as of noon on 4/30/24, NWS predicts the West Fork will not flood.

View Real-Time Inundation Mapping

To view Real-Time Inundation Mapping, go to www.harriscountyfws.org and click “inundation map” on the left side.

Trinity River Also Flooding Badly

The Trinity River at Liberty is about to see major flooding through Sunday. The Trinity is a separate watershed. It will not affect Harris County.

Other Flooding

Fourteen gages show various streams and creeks in the region are at or near flood stage.

To see gage levels and predictions for a stream near you, go to the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

The Harris County Flood Warning System offers many of the same features plus more, such as historical flood heights.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/24 at 2PM

2436 Days since Hurricane Harvey