Lake Conroe Association Complains About Lowering Lake Conroe … Again

Updated 6/25/24 – After the near miss with Tropical Storm Alberto, Lake Conroe Association (LCA) President Kevin Lacey penned an angry, demanding letter to the City of Houston (CoH) about lowering the lake 5 inches.

Complaints In Lacey Letter

Among other things, the letter complains that:

  • Lowering the lake after June 1 is a “breach” of the “Active Storm Management Agreement”
  • The amount of rainfall in the original prediction did not justify the amount of “excessive” lowering
  • CoH did not stop lowering Lake Conroe when the storm veered to the southwest
  • CoH wasted its water, instead of using it “beneficially”
  • The lake likely won’t be able to recover its normal water levels during summer

Use of the word “breach” by Mr. Lacey seems to imply that his association has legal standing to dispute the actions of the SJRA and CoH. He demands that they account to him for their actions during the storm at a special meeting with LCA.

The Lake Conroe Association has a long history of protesting lake lowering. LCA sounds like a homeowner’s association, but it is not. LCA was originally founded as a nonprofit 50 years ago to combat the growth of Hydrilla (a fast-growing invasive plant species) around the lake.

Since then, LCA claims it has raised a million dollars ($20,000 per year) through donations. Currently it claims it is also fighting for “safe water levels.”

Motive Behind the Fight?

Some believe that insufficiently dredged areas around Lake Conroe motivated this fight. Regular HOAs cannot afford dredging and homeowners have difficulty operating their boats when lake levels are down.

Mr. Lacey seems oblivious to fact that many around the lake see preemptive lowering as a positive thing that helps reduce their flood risk. Anecdotally, I have heard that many homes flooded around Lake Conroe during May although I don’t have an exact count.

May Storm Dramatizes Problem of Forecast Uncertainty

After 7 inches of rain fell north of Lake Conroe in late April, SJRA began releasing water for days. They had the release rate down to 8,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) and were actually decreasing the release rate, when another 11 inches fell in the same location.

Lake Conroe flood gates
Gates at Lake Conroe can release water 15X faster than Lake Houston’s gates. This makes coordinating pre-releases difficult.

Within hours, SJRA escalated the release rate to 72,000 CFS, flooding hundreds of homes downstream, nearly flooding thousands more, breaking sand mine dikes, and sweeping sediment downstream – just as the CoH was about to begin a $34 million dredging program.

Seventy-two thousand CFS was SJRA’s second highest release rate in its history. Only Hurricane Harvey’s 79,000 CFS exceeded that.

Decreasing the release rate just hours before increasing it 9X underscores the difficulty of precisely predicting how much rain will fall where.

But Mr. Lacey didn’t acknowledge that difficulty anywhere in his letter. Nor did he reference the May storm. Or homes around Lake Conroe that flooded. Or that the City of Houston has the right to call for SJRA water year round.

He especially forgot to mention that when Alberto was pushing southwest, the National Hurricane Center predicted that another potential tropical storm could move north toward Houston. That explains the likely reason Houston continued calling for 660 CFS even after Alberto headed for Mexico and the Valley.

Ultimately, the second storm followed Alberto into Mexico yesterday. But had it moved north, there wouldn’t have been time to achieve meaningful lake-level reduction without flooding homes downstream and staying within the bounds of Lake Conroe’s permit from the TCEQ.

Correcting Other Allegations

To correct some other issues in the Lake Conroe Association letter:

  • While releasing 660 CFS per second before and during Alberto, SJRA did not exceed its TCEQ Permit which specifies 700 CFS maximum. If Mr. Lacey supported increasing that, perhaps next time, SJRA could release water closer to storms when the certainty level of forecasts is higher.
  • Breach implies some kind of a contract exists between LCA and CoH. It doesn’t. Rather, SJRA has a series of operational guidelines in place with CoH.
  • CoH owns two-thirds of the water in Lake Conroe. The “agreement” referenced by Lacey isn’t even labeled as an agreement. It’s a series of operating protocols. They let CoH call for water whenever it wants, not just during peak rainy seasons in the Spring and Fall. (More on that tomorrow.)
  • Many would consider preventing the potential flooding of homes a beneficial use of the water released, even if it did ultimately flow into the Gulf of Mexico.
  • We’ve heard LCA claim before that Lake Conroe won’t be able to return to its normal level in summer because of such releases. In 2021, LCA actually filed a lawsuit based on that claim. The judge ultimately dismissed the case with prejudice after SJRA had to increase release rates repeatedly that summer to keep homes and businesses around the lake from flooding.

Previous Exaggeration

In 2018, the Lake Conroe Association also claimed that seasonal lowering would destroy home values around Lake Conroe. A spot check of the Montgomery County Appraisal District site shows that many lakefront homes have actually doubled in value since lake lowering went into effect. I found one that virtually tripled.

Perhaps Lake Conroe residents are more concerned about whether their homes will flood than how far they have to step down into their boats. After all, the National Hurricane Center has predicted the most active hurricane season ever.

For More Information

To read the actual text of documents referenced in this post, follow these links:

The last includes elements of seasonal lowering, but differs in several important ways. It represents a compromise among automatic, season-long lowering and:

  • Construction delays for additional Lake Houston Gates
  • Upstream convenience and downstream risk reduction
  • Drought and water conservation concerns.

It does this by approaching lake lowering on an as-needed basis. It also specifies when the SJRA and City may bypass the protocols. See more tomorrow.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/24/2024

2491 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Study on Flood Inundation Mapping Seeks Focus Group Participants

The Nurture Nature Center, a nonprofit organization in Easton, Pennsylvania, is conducting focus group studies nationwide on National Weather Service hydrologic forecast products for NOAA. Next month, they will conduct a group in the Houston area.

US59 at West Fork during Harvey
Looking S across San Jacinto West Fork toward Humble from over US59 bridge during Harvey.

Purpose of Study

The research team is currently studying new Flood Inundation Mapping Products. The goal: make sure people get the information they need to prepare for possible flooding.

The study will explore the kinds of decisions users will make with new maps. The researchers will use feedback they get to provide recommendations to NWS based on focus group testing about how to:

  • Integrate key information
  • Eliminate confusion
  • Provide clarity.

This is part of a series of focus groups being conducted nationwide. Researchers will conduct this particular group in conjunction with the Houston/Galveston Weather Forecast Office. It will focus on the San Jacinto River Basin.

Focus Group Details

Researchers will hold the San Jacinto focus group:

  • On Tuesday, July 23rd from 6-8 PM
  • At the Jacinto City Branch Library Meeting Room
    921 Akron St
    Houston, TX 77029
  • Refreshments and light snacks provided

Participants will each receive $50.

To qualify, participants must live and/or work in the Houston, TX – San Jacinto River Basin area and be at least 18 years of age.

To Register…

Registration is required and limited to 15 participants.

Please circulate this post to anyone vulnerable to flooding, interested in sharing their experiences, and willing to help improve flood forecast products.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/23/24

2490 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Another Disturbance Following Path of Tropical Storm Alberto

Another disturbance is forming over the southern Gulf of Mexico where Tropical Storm Alberto formed earlier this week. However…

“Few impacts are expected along the upper Texas coast.” 

Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the storm is moving slowly toward the WNW/NW.

“A deep convective band has developed well to the north of the broad surface low while other convective activity remains at a minimum,” said Lindner.

As of 15:00 Zulu time, which equals 10 AM in Houston

“Some additional development of this feature is possible over the next few days as it moves slowly toward the WNW/NW. Eventually it will make landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico,” he said.

50% Chance of Development

The National Hurricane Center currently gives this disturbance a 50% chance of development in the next two days.

As of 12:00 AM CDT on Saturday, June 22, 2024

“Given the broad nature of the surface low, it may take some time for the system to consolidate,” Lindner continued. “And it is equally possible that it runs out of time and makes landfall before developing into a tropical system.”

Possible tracks of storm system

Little Impact Predicted Along Upper Texas Coast

Generally there will be little to no impact of this system along the upper TX coast. Current elevated tides are the result of the subsiding wave action from Alberto and the current full-moon cycle. Elevated tides will continue to subside over the next few days.

“With high pressure building across the Houston area, moisture will remain mostly south of us,” concluded Lindner.

Three weeks into the hurricane season, most of the action has been in the Gulf of Mexico. This is consistent with earlier predictions. Forecasters predicted that the developing La Niña would reduce wind sheer in the Gulf. That allows more storms to build closer to Houston as opposed to the mid-Atlantic.

So check the National Hurricane Center daily. And make sure you’re prepared for a storm. The closer they originate to Texas, the less time we have to prepare for them.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/22/24

2489 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Northpark Expansion Obstacles Finally Being Addressed

6/21/24 – Entergy has removed some – but not all – blockages to the Northpark expansion project related to its equipment. The project is designed to build an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents.

Entergy removed several of its poles that blocked expansion of the roadway earlier this week.

The company is also committing to dates for the removal of other poles that remain in the way of construction.

The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 first notified Entergy that it would have to move its equipment in 2020. On February 6th this year, the City of Houston finally set a firm deadline. It gave Entergy 30 days to move its equipment. That deadline was obviously missed.

Entergy says it has been working diligently to help Northpark expansion move forward. As we move into what is expected to be a very busy hurricane season, here’s where the TIRZ and Entergy say things stand and what I have been able to verify photographically.

Some Poles Already Removed Earlier This Week

Entergy removed several poles that blocked construction progress on Tuesday, June 18. They were located near Dunkin’ Donuts and Public Storage.

Note old pole on ground in front of Public Storage (out of frame to right).

Primoris, an Entergy contractor, took down that and several other poles that day.

More Entergy poles being removed by Primoris crew in front of Dunkin’ Donuts

Two other groups of poles continue to block construction, however. Here’s what Entergy is doing to address those.

Blockage #1: Poles West of Car Wash

The first blockage is a group of three poles immediately west of the Quick Quack Car Wash where new westbound turn lanes will begin. This group of poles still holds a Comcast cable. See below.

Looking W. Three short poles on left between Duncan Donuts and Quick Quack Carwash have yet to be moved.

Comcast has committed to burying this cable next week. Then Primoris can remove the poles for Entergy.

Blockage #2: Poles near Loop 494

The second group also has three poles – at Loop 494 and the Union Pacific railroad tracks. However, these three poles have two separate issues with which Entergy must contend.

  • They supply redundant power to the businesses along Northpark.
  • An Internet provider, Brightspeed, also has a line mounted on two of the three poles. (See #2 and #3 below.)
Entergy Delay Forces Change to Northpark Expansion Plan…Again
Looking W from over Northpark across 494. Three more Entergy power poles blocking Northpark Drive expansion.

To get these three poles out of the way of Northpark expansion, Entergy has three options:

  • Move them north (right in photo above)
  • Bore under the roadway and tracks
  • A combination of the above.

According to Brian Garcia, Entergy’s project manager, his company has chosen a combination of the two approaches. It will move the overhead lines north temporarily while it works out permits and easements with TXDoT and Union Pacific.

Once Entergy has secured permissions needed, it will then bury the lines, a solution that is more reliable. It is also more expensive because two moves are involved rather than one. But it should let construction move forward faster.

Entergy has committed to delivering a plan to temporarily relocate Pole #1 (in the photo above) by end of day today.

Weather permitting, Entergy also plans to actually relocate its wires on Poles #2 and #3 by 6/28/24 – next Friday. Entergy would then top its old poles. That would let BrightSpeed remove its cable. And then Primoris could remove the old poles.

Union Pacific Sets Meeting on Crossing Signals

Meanwhile, Union Pacific (UP) has set a meeting for July 9 to talk about relocating its crossing signals. It’s a firm deadline, according to De Leon, the TIRZ’s project manager for Northpark Expansion.

Unexpected delays by any party in this ballet of corporate behemoths could create a domino effect that could push the Northpark project back into next year. Or even force cancellation.

Blockage #3: Transformer At Exxon

Meanwhile, at the Exxon Station near US59, Entergy also has a transformer that must be moved farther back from the roadway. See red circle below. The distance has to do, in part, with line-of-sight issues for motorists. Its height means that it could block the view of motorists entering or leaving the roadway.

Entergy transformer at US59 (top) and Northpark (right) circled in red.

But working around the transformer presents serious construction problems. The wires leading to/from it are not up to code, according to De Leon.

He says that the City building code calls for underground wiring to be encased in steel. But the wiring in this area is not. That could jeopardize the safety of heavy equipment operators working to expand Northpark in this area.

Garcia disagrees. He says all of their equipment and lines meet or exceed all applicable building codes.

Several weeks ago, a contractor for the TIRZ did some exploratory hydro-excavation as part of its due diligence for the roadway expansion project. The contractor found Entergy wires that were exposed, not encased like De Leon says they should have been.

Wiring near Entergy transformer exposed during exploratory hydro-excavation process.

De Leon shared this photo in the June TIRZ board meeting. He says it creates a major safety issue for construction workers near the transformer. According to him, the workers could be electrocuted if, for instance, the bucket of an excavator accidentally cut one of the wires.

Garcia says Entergy crews will move the transformer. But De Leon and his contractors are concerned about what could happen if they encounter similar wires as they work in the same general area.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/21/2024

2488 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Alberto, First Named Storm of Season, Lashes Mexico, South TX

6/19/24 – Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 just became Tropical Storm Alberto, according to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 10 AM update. Alberto will reach the coast of northeast Mexico early tomorrow morning.

Texas Impacts from Alberto

Until then, the entire Texas Coast up to San Luis Pass is under a tropical storm warning. Residents can expect heavy rains, coastal flooding and gusty winds through Thursday.

NHC expects Alberto to weaken quickly once it comes ashore early Thursday. The storm is moving at 9 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles north of the center.

Peak storm surge will reach 2-4 feet along the upper Texas Coast and Galveston Bay.

Rainfall Still Ratcheting Down

Rainfall predictions continue to ratchet down, however, especially for the Houston area as Alberto is pushed south by higher pressure from the northeast U.S.

Alberto should produce 5 to 10 inches of rainfall across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.

NHC will produce more advisories on Alberto at 1 and 4 PM today.

Make Alberto a Learning Experience

If you have kids home from school looking for something to do, this is an excellent chance to teach them about tropical cyclones.

NHC offers dozens of educational resources geared toward students from K-12 all the way up to continuing education for weather professionals. Harness your child’s natural curiosity while storms are in the news.

I found NHC’s course on Hurricane Basics very informative. Before Alberto became Alberto, it had winds strong enough to qualify as a tropical storm, but NHC kept calling it a potential tropical cyclone instead. Do you know the other attributes that define tropical cyclones? Hurricane Basics tells you.

Want to know what it takes to get a tropical cyclone started?

What affects their intensity?

Or how various factors come together to produce more or less rainfall?

NHC describes each of the factors above and provides clear, simple illustrations that make them easy to understand.

This particular presentation also covers:

  • Storm tracks
  • Where hurricanes will most likely form depending on month of the season
  • Tropical distrubances
  • Track forecasting
  • Associated hazards, such as hurricanes
  • Relative risks from wind, rainfall, surge, flash flooding, etc.
  • Categories of storms and types of damage associated with each
  • More, much more.

Trivia: By the way, NHC provides climate data, too. Did you know, for instance, that the first named storm of the season usually occurs on June 20th in the Atlantic Basin. This year, the first named storm occurred on June 19.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/19/24

2486 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Heaviest Rainfall Threat from PTC1 Shifting Southwest

The heavy rainfall threat for the northeast Houston area from PTC1 (Potential Tropical Cyclone #1) has shifted southwest somewhat today. While the storm takes its time getting organized, high pressure from the eastern US is building into the Houston area. That’s squeezing the heaviest rains toward the coast and the Rio Grande Valley.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center warns of a second storm forming next week exactly where PTC1 is forming now. But it will likely head north, not west.

Heaviest Rainfall from PCT1 Shifting Southwest

Over the weekend, early predictions suggested heavy rains would arrive in the Lake Houston Area on Monday. Monday’s predictions suggested Tuesday. And now Tuesday’s predictions say the Lake Houston Area might get 1-3 inches of rain during the next three days.

The National Weather Service (NWS) now predicts PTC1 will produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals could approach 15 inches.

This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.

NWS also predicts the broad circulation of PTC1 could produce extreme rainfall in Central America. Totals could average 10 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches. Areas most affected include the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, much of El Salvador, western Honduras, and far western Nicaragua.

Here’s what the storm looked like earlier today from space.

Landfall in Mexico

As of 4PM CDT Tuesday, NWS predicted PTC1 would make landfall in Mexico sometime within the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical storm. They currently give it an 80% chance of formation.

At present, the storm exhibits wind speeds approaching tropical storm strength (39+ MPH). Tropical storm conditions could begin tonight or Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward 415 miles north of the center.

National Hurricane Center

So focus less on the track and more on the impact.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns, “Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a large area of heavy rains. Expect moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center.”

Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through midweek.

If PTC1 becomes a tropical storm, its name will be Alberto.

Double Trouble?

NHC’s website showed something unusual today. One possible tropical system could develop within the area vacated by another. Within days of each other!

NHC gives a 20% chance of the second storm developing in the yellow area with the red X.

But instead of moving into Mexico, they predict the second storm could move northward. That could make it a direct threat to Houston.

So check NHC’s weather forecasts daily during hurricane season. As PTC1 proves, weather can change quickly.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/18/24

2485 Days since Hurricane Harvey

NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One

6/17/24 – At 4PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The disturbance in the Gulf has a 70 percent chance of tropical formation during the next two days.

NHC also issued a tropical storm watch for Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande and onward to Boca de Catan in Mexico.

If a tropical storm forms, they will call it Alberto.

A satellite photo taken this morning of Potential Tropical Cyclone One shows storm clouds already starting to wind around a broad area of low pressure centered over the Yucatan. It has been spinning rain north into Texas and Louisiana. But the main event starts tomorrow.

National Hurricane Center Atlantic-Wide Geocolor View, taken 6/17/24, early AM.

Moving NNW at 7 MPH with 40MPH Winds

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  

NHC expects a turn toward the west-northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday. The system will likely approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Current maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.

National Hurricane Center

Some slow strengthening is possible, The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. Formation chance through:

  • 48 hours…high…70 percent.
  • 7 days…high…70 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Life-Threatening Flooding Likely in Mexico and Central America

“Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.” 

The graphic below shows accumulations expected over the next five days.

Total expected rainfall from Tuesday through Sunday. Source: National Weather Service.

According to NHC, “Potential Tropical Cyclone One will produce “rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.”

Lake Houston Area Will See Far Less Rainfall

Locally, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts:

  • Coastal Counties: 7-9 inches (widespread), isolated totals over 12+ inches
  • I-10 corridor: 3-5 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 7 inches
  • North of I-10: 3-4 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 5 inches.

Lindner adds, “The most favorable time for heavy rainfall over southeast Texas will be from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.”

Use the rainfall amounts above as average. Training bands can quickly result in much higher totals and flash flooding in small areas near other areas that see little rainfall.”

Watersheds Most at Risk

Where the heaviest rains fall will determine responses on area watersheds. Lindner feels most Harris County creeks and bayous can handle 4-6 inches of rainfall. However, he warns that if isolated higher totals exceed 8 inches in southern Harris County, we might see trouble on:

  • Clear Creek and its tributaries
  • Armand Bayou
  • Willow Spring Bayou
  • Big Island Slough
  • Taylor’s Bayou
  • Goose Creek
  • Berry Bayou
  • Hunting Bayou
  • Keegans Bayou
  • Willow Waterhole

Lake Report

At 5PM, the SJRA has lowered Lake Conroe by one-third of a foot.

The Coastal Water Authority has lowered Lake Houston by a full foot.

I asked Lindner how much rain he expected between the lakes. The short answer: 2-3 inches with isolated totals up to 4 inches. With that amount of lake lowering, he does not expect structural flooding. But there are other dangers.

The mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park shows how high sediment deposits have become. At Lake Houston’s normal level, that sand lurks just inches below the surface. Boaters have churned a temporary shallow channel through the sandbar with their props.

Mouth of Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park on afternoon of 6/17/24 with lake down one foot.

But with all the sand coming down the West Fork from sand-mine breaches, that sediment you see above will likely increase during this storm.

Confluence of Spring Creek and West Fork (right) near US59 Bridge on 6/16/24

But the greatest immediate threat exists near the coast.

Coastal Warnings

Six to nine foot swells will be common throughout the Gulf for the next several days, according to NHC.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
  • Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
  • Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX…1-3 ft
  • Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA…1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/17/24 at 5PM based on information from NHC and NWS

2484 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flash Flooding Chances Increase for Tuesday, Wednesday

6/16/24 – 8 PM update – As of 8 PM, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation to 70% from 50% for the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.

Excessive rainfall and flash flooding chances are increasing for the middle part of the week. Coastal counties could see 8-11 inches in widespread areas with isolated totals topping 12 inches.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner:

  • The I-10 corridor could experience 5-8 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 10 inches
  • North of I-10, people will see 3-5 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 8 inches.
  • Much of the rainfall will come over a 36-48 hour period (Tuesday and Wednesday).
National Weather Service gives most of Harris County a 3 out of 4 chance for excessive rainfall.

All of this rain is in association with a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation for that red area in the Gulf to 70%.

Whether the storm gets a name or not, it will impact the Houston area in several ways.

Forecasts have been trending upward with rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours. Given the incoming tropical moisture combined with the potential for cell training and high hourly rainfall rates, flash flooding is becoming an increasing concern.

Sustained heavy rains will be possible from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday over the area.

High hourly rainfall rates will result in rapid onset flash flooding.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Uncertainty remains as to where any sustained banding features will form and how far inland the heavy rainfall threat may extend. Stay tuned for changes to the forecast.

Last week, NWS was predicting far less rain from this system.

Significant Rises Likely on Waterways

Significant rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers will be likely given the rainfall forecast. Where maximum totals occur, overbank flooding will be possible on creeks and bayous. Rivers which are still elevated from the spring rainfall will also likely see additional rises. However, flooding will depend on the position, magnitude, and coverage of the heavier rains and the inland extent.   

Lake Conroe Being Lowered

In preparation, the San Jacinto River Authority continues to lower Lake Conroe. On Sunday morning, it was at 200.82 feet, several inches below its normal level of 201 feet. At 10 AM, SJRA was discharging 660 cubic feet per second.

Lake Houston Discharge Rate Jumps 7X

Downriver, the Coastal Water Authority increased the discharge rate from Lake Houston. The rate jumped from 1386 CFS to 9,905 CFS between 5 AM and 7 AM this morning.

Note steep jump in discharge rate at the far right.

Gusty Winds, Coastal Flooding, Dangerous Seas

As the much-advertised tropical weather event unfolds over the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 24 hours, Lindner anticipates increasing impacts, especially along the Texas Coast.

The plume of tropical moisture will arrive late tonight into Monday. Scattered showers will begin to work toward the coast tonight. Even greater moisture will flow inland Tuesday and Wednesday.

Banding thunderstorms and cell training will create potential for flash flooding. Models have trended upwards in the last 24 hours. The National Weather Service has given all areas south of I-10 a level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.

Wind Forecast

According to Lindner, winds will begin to increase on Monday, but really ramp up Tuesday into Wednesday. Coastal areas will likely experience frequent gusts to gale force.

  • Coastal waters: 35-45mph
  • Coastal counties: 25-40mph
  • Inland: 25-30mph

Coastal Flooding Likely Mid-Week During High Tides

Lindner expects building seas and elevated tides to exceed coastal flood thresholds along the upper Texas coast, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Total water levels are forecasted to reach 4.5-5.5 feet above barnacle level along the Gulf facing beaches late Tuesday into Wednesday and 4.0-5.0 feet in Galveston Bay.

Minor coastal flooding is likely late Tuesday into Wednesday in the usual low lying coastal areas (Bolivar, west end of Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway, Tiki Island, San Leon, Seabrook, Shoreacres).

Water and debris may cover portions of HWY 87 near HWY 124 on Bolivar at high tide. Low lying coastal roads will likely be impacted and covered with sea water at times of high tide.

10-12 Foot Seas

Lindner also warns that extreme dangerous/hazardous marine conditions will develop across all waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will build 5-9 feet on Tuesday offshore and 4-6 feet in bays. Then they will build 10-12 feet on Wednesday offshore and 5-7 feet in bays.

Sustained winds of 30-40mph with frequent gusts of 45mph will be common across our local waters. Expect frequent squalls and periods of heavy rainfall and reduced visibility. Small craft should be secured in port by late Monday and remain in port until conditions improve.  

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/16/24 based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, and NWS

2483 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Entergy Delay Forces Change to Northpark Expansion Plan…Again

6/15/2024 – Fireworks erupted in the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 Board Meeting on 6/13/24 over more Entergy delays related to the Northpark Expansion plan.

Four years after being notified to move its power poles and a transformer, Entergy still has equipment blocking the expansion. Ralph De Leon, the TIRZ project manager, explained that as a consequence, the TIRZ has been forced to modify its plans yet again.

Power Poles Conflict with Westbound Detour

Original plans called for routing westbound traffic in the vicinity of the bridge over the railroad and Loop 494 onto permanent turn lanes next to businesses. However, because Entergy power poles still stand where those turn lanes would go, LHRA decided to move traffic south, parallel to the existing eastbound lanes. See blacktop in photos and schematic diagram below.

Looking ESE from over Loop 494. Instead of funneling outbound traffic into new permanent lanes in front of the businesses on the left, commuters will use temporary lanes built on the blacktop. Photo 6/13/24.
Looking west toward US59 at asphalt that will become temporary westbound lanes. Photo 6/13/24.

The permanent concrete lanes originally were to have gone in the grassy area to the right where the first line of poles is.

Here’s a schematic diagram of the change.

For full, high-res PDF, click here.

Cost Impact Not Yet Clear

Replacing permanent lanes with alternate temporary lanes means that LHRA now will build these lanes twice instead of once. That will increase the project cost. However, no-one in the meeting mentioned an exact dollar amount.

De Leon said that in order to stick with the original traffic diversion plan, the deadline for removing the poles was last year.

Yet Entergy has not yet moved its poles where the new lanes will go. Nor have they provided a timetable for removing the poles. However, Brian Garcia, Entergy’s project manager, expressed confidence that the last poles would be removed “soon.”

It would be safe to say that most other people in the board meeting did not share his optimism. Discussion got heated at times as LHRA tried to pin Entergy down regarding a deadline. Hence, my reference to fireworks above.

Representatives of the City and TIRZ also made it clear that they intended to deduct the cost of the temporary lanes from any money that Entergy might have been entitled to for moving its transformer near the Exxon Station.

Two Groups of Poles

Two separate pole issues exist:

  • The original poles between Benjamin Moore Paints and Loop 494
  • Three key poles near the intersection of Northpark and Loop 494

The first group of poles has been “de-energized.” That means transformers and electric wires have already been moved. However, the old poles still have a fiberoptic communication line hanging from them. (Two lines in places). See below.

Looking west toward US59. Old poles on left still have fiberoptic line on them which must be moved to new poles on right. Photo 6/13/24.

The owner(s) of those remaining line(s) on the left must move them before Entergy can take down the old poles. But the fiberoptic provider has had weeks and not moved its line(s).

At the end of the line of poles above on the left sit three key poles shown in the aerial view below.

These three poles provide a redundant source of energy for businesses along Northpark. The businesses are also fed by power from Kings Mill. Photo 6/13/24

In the power business, it’s a standard/best practice to feed areas from at least two different directions. That way, if power is knocked out on one leg, the other leg can still supply homes and businesses.

Entergy has two choices with these three poles. It could move them north and continue to feed redundant power to Northpark businesses with overhead lines. Or, it could tunnel under Loop 494 and the railroad tracks. Entergy prefers to bore under for reliability reasons.

Again, Entergy’s Garcia is confident that the easements TXDot and Union Pacific require will be easy to obtain and come quickly. But the City and TIRZ do not share his confidence. They struggled for years to obtain their own easements and permits.

So, rather than just move the overhead lines north, Entergy is negotiating with TXDoT and Union Pacific to bore under their properties.

Who Will Bear Increased Costs?

After repeatedly being asked to provide a timetable for compliance, Entergy supplied none and instead shifted the conversation to its costs.

The overhead lines have sufficed for years. But Garcia says that Entergy prefers the underground option.

However, if all parties do not complete construction before October, the entire project could be delayed for months and possibly even cancelled. According to De Leon, Turner Brothers’, the prime contractor with the TIRZ, has other projects stacked up and waiting.

Turner Brothers would have to redeploy crews if they can’t keep them working on Northpark. And there’s no guarantee when those crews would be available again to work on Northpark.

But when the boardroom discussion turned to the need for Entergy to act quickly, Entergy turned the discussion to cost.

Garcia says there’s a significant cost for Entergy to move its overhead lines. If the company can bore underground instead, it would prefer to do that rather move its lines twice.

As a consequence, the TIRZ will be forced to shift traffic twice to keep the project moving.

Moreover, both the TIRZ and Entergy face a firm deadline from the railroad, whose busy season starts in October. They must have boring complete well before then with time for the railroad to lay new track and install new signal equipment.

Meanwhile, Entergy still has not moved its transformer near the Exxon Station at US59.

Argument Over Reimbursement

The transformer is outside the City’s easement but the power poles are inside.

Under Texas law, Entergy is entitled to reimbursement for costs outside City easements, but not those inside.

Ralph De Leon, Northpark Expansion Project Manager

Paying to move poles inside City easements would constitute a “gift of public funds,” which is illegal.

The two sides reached a tentative agreement on reimbursement last December. But then in January, Entergy demanded double the agreed total – without explanation or itemization.

In the June TIRZ board meeting, Garcia said he still needed to get the itemized costs approved by his management.

TIRZ directors (who are unpaid volunteers) could become liable for illegal payments to Entergy, hence the demand for itemized costs.

Other Northpark News

The pace of construction has also slowed due to heavy rains in May, which still have soils wet. When they dry out, contractors will resume:

Preparing to pour new concrete

  • Demolishing old concrete near Loop 494
  • Excavating the south pond at the US59 entry
  • Installing culverts
Looking E at progress of culverts. Ponding water in ditch (foreground) has slowed installation. Photo 6/13/24

For More Information

For more information about Northpark expansion, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding. Many contain information about previous delays that caused plan changes:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/15/24

2482 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lakes Being Lowered in Advance of Expected Heavy Rains

6/14/24, 10:00 AM – The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) is lowering Lake Conroe and the Coastal Water Authority (CWA) is lowering Lake Houston in advance of expected heavy rainfall associated with a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.

At this hour, forecasters predict storms could drop 3-6 inches of rain on the Houston area with the highest totals near the coast. But rain should drop off fairly sharply inland. However, uncertainty remains about how sharp the drop off will be.

Timing of Rain

Most of the rain should fall Monday through Wednesday, but could start as early as Sunday night. However, some models are beginning to forecast the heaviest rains from Tuesday into early Thursday.

Either way, dam operators should have time to lower their respective lakes and create extra storage capacity for stormwater.

Location of Disturbance

At 7:44 AM EDT, the center of the area of concern had not moved since yesterday. Moisture continues to build in the Bay of Campeche. But forecasters have increased the chances of any disturbance turning into a named storm from 40% yesterday to 50% today.

The National Hurricane Center has this to say: “A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.”

Houston Will Not Likely Take Direct Hit, But…

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, “The Houston area will not likely take a direct hit from the system. While any tropical depression/storm is likely to remain south of the upper Texas coast, the deep ESE/SE fetch of moisture on the northeastern side of the feature will begin to arrive along the Texas coast as early as late Sunday and more likely into Monday and Tuesday.”

He continued, “It should be noted that the broad nature of this system and potentially ill-defined surface circulation will likely result in impacts spread well away from the actual low itself. Also, until any actual surface low forms, uncertainty will remain with the forecasts and impacts.”

Some models are predicting “outer banding features” in the Houston area. Despite a fair amount of uncertainty, the incoming tropical air mass could drop high amounts of rainfall in a short period of time.

That said, the National Weather Service has released this map showing predicted rainfall amounts for the next seven days.

Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Pre-Releasing

In preparation, Lake Conroe began releasing 660 cubic feet per second (CFS) after a City of Houston request early Friday morning. That is the maximum amount the SJRA can release before a storm under its permit. As the lake starts filling, that amount increases.

Mark Micheletti, an SJRA board member, said that SJRA hopes to lower the lake by six inches before the rains arrive.

Simultaneously, the CWA has opened the gates on the Lake Houston Dam. CWA is currently releasing 1335 CFS.

So, Lake Houston is releasing water twice as fast. And Lake Houston is half the size of Lake Conroe. Therefore, areas downstream should see lower lake levels faster. As it should be. Remember that Lake Houston is 30 miles closer to the coast, where forecasters expect the highest rainfall.

All gates on Lake Houston have been fixed and are fully operational.

Wind and Tide Impacts

For many people, rain isn’t the only concern. According to Lindner, “Winds will also start to increase early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the deepening area of low pressure to the southwest and building high pressure over the SE US. Winds of 20-30mph can be expected across the Gulf/nearshore/and inland bays with 20-25mph across the coastal counties,” according to Lindner.

For boaters and all those who work offshore, nearshore seas will build into the 4-6 ft range by Monday morning and 5-8 ft by Tuesday morning with offshore heights approaching 8-10 ft.

The current tide forecast indicates values of 1-2 ft above normal. But when coupled with the building seas at times of high tide water levels may get close to coastal flooding thresholds. That should happen Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some beach front locations will begin to experience minor coastal flooding around 3-4 ft above normal tide levels.

Given the potential prolonged nature of the ESE winds across the Gulf, we have the potential for tidal trapping. That’s when incoming seas won’t let the previous high tide drain away. This can, over time, build water levels in the bays. 

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/14/24

2481 Days since Hurricane Harvey