Northpark Tree Transplantation Finished, Drainage Updates

Despite constant rain that brought widespread flooding to the Houston region last week, contractors finished the Northpark tree transplantation. They also made significant progress on two other parts of the road expansion project since my last update two weeks ago. I took the pictures below on 2/1/24 with one exception.

Among the highlights:

  • Dozens of trees were transplanted on the south side of Northpark at US59. The trees now form an arc around what will eventually become a decorative pond/retention basin on the south side of the intersection.
  • Excavation of a companion decorative pond/retention basin on the north side of Northpark is much farther along than in my previous report.
  • The first leg of 8-foot culvert linking the ponds with Ditch One is almost complete. The other two legs (under the railroad tracks and from US59 to Loop 494) should start within weeks.

Ideal Weather for Northpark Tree Transplantation

The cool, wet weather created ideal conditions for the transplanted trees to take root and thrive. Ralph De Leon, project manager, noted that the spacing of the trees also gives them room to spread and thrive.

Each transplanted tree has a ring around the base designed to retain supplemental water. The trees will receive extra water for two years to ensure they thrive after the shock of being transplanted.

Looking south. Transplanted trees will form a backdrop for what will soon become another decorative pond.

Pond Excavation Progress

Meanwhile, across Northpark, excavation of the first of two ponds is proceeding despite the wet weather.

Looking north. Across Northpark Drive, excavation of the pond/retention basin is already well underway.
Reverse angle of same area makes it easier to see the extent of excavation.

Excavated dirt is being stored temporarily at a sand mine on Sorters-McClellan Road. After the culverts are installed down the center of Northpark, contractors will retrieve the excavated dirt and place it over the culvert sections to form the road bed.

The pond above will go 8-12 feet deeper than you see now. The contractor is only digging down to the water table for now until: a) pond liners arrive and b) drainage connections for the ponds are complete. That’s because the contractors will have to continuously pump water as they excavate to the final depth.

Pond Landscaping Plans

That horse-shoe-shaped area on the left (above and below) will be a decorative focal point for the pond.

The trench you see above will contain a brick retaining wall that keeps the area from eroding into the ponds.

Final design of the north pond will look like this.

The peninsula will contain decorative trees, shrubs and other plantings.

The next diagram shows how the north and south ponds will closely mirror each other.

Current plans call for colorful crepe myrtles. Japanese ardisia, a ground cover, will ring the area.

Japanese ardisia, also called marlberry, is a flowering, evergreen ground cover introduced from the Far East. It is a low-growing, woody shrub that spreads laterally while growing to a height of 8-12 inches.

No Identifying Entry Signage

Unlike Kingwood Drive, where KSA owns the land behind the ponds, TXDoT owns all the land at Northpark Drive. So you will not see any prominent Kingwood identification as you do at Kingwood Drive.

Drainage Progress Between Railroad and Ditch One

The entry ponds above will drain to “Ditch One.” The ditch runs parallel to Northpark behind the businesses on the north side of the road.

Culverts will carry the water from the ponds eastward, then under Loop 494 and the railroad tracks. The culvert will then turn north and back east again behind the businesses (see red line below).

Route of culvert from entry ponds to Ditch Ditch One.
Route of drainage from north pond to Ditch One. Photo from 1/24.

The agreement with UnionPacific to tunnel under the tracks has been completed and the plans approved. However, tunneling has not yet started. UP indicated that their busy season ends after February, so boring under the tracks will likely be delayed until then for safety reasons.

Regardless, the link to Ditch One around the storage businesses above is almost complete. Culvert has already been buried parallel to the tracks and behind two storage businesses.

Looking SW. Culvert placement almost complete. Contracts use the dirt to level ground above the culvert.

Existing drainage will join the new culvert behind those businesses. Currently, contractors are working on the junction. See below.

The new 8′ pipe from the ponds is the one with the man standing inside of it.

Contractors are also working on the outfall into the ditch. Because of the expected velocity of the water, they must create concrete walls to prevent erosion of the surrounding earth that could undermine the pipe.

Start of the concrete outfall into Ditch One.
ditch one
Ditch One (center) will then carry the stormwater to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and Bens Branch.

Ditch One will eventually be widened to handle the increased flow. Connecting the ponds at US59 to the link under the railroad tracks should start in the next few weeks.

The project requires the additional retention and drainage capacity shown above to handle runoff from the extra lanes of traffic.

In front of the businesses shown above, Northpark will eventually expand to 10 lanes from the current four. Six will carry traffic on a bridge over the railroad and Loop 494. Four turn lanes will remain at ground level – two on each side of the bridge. The two will let traffic turn north or south onto 494 from each direction.

Built to TXDoT Highway Standards

This entire project is being built to TXDoT highway standards. Those standards exceed normal neighborhood street standards. You would expect nothing less for what will eventually become a critical evacuation route for 78,000 people.

  • Lanes will be 12-feet wide instead of 10 to safely carry traffic at higher speeds.
  • Concrete will be much thicker than normal to carry heavier loads without cracking.
  • Storm drains will be sized to carry the volume of runoff you would expect from highways. The wider inlets will help avoid water flooding roads during intense rainfalls.

Greater Safety at Rail Crossing/Loop 494

Safety will also improve at the railroad crossing.

  • A bridge will carry most traffic over the railroad.
  • The entire train track at Northpark will have a one-piece steel and concrete foundation. That will reduce the chance of track shifting or dipping and causing a derailment.
  • Pedestrian/bicycle crossings will have “escape gates” in case people get caught on tracks when trains come through.

However, installation of those safety improvements will cause some inconvenience. To install that one-piece steel and concrete foundation, the railroad will shut down for three days. That will require closing off Northpark for three days also.

Originally, project managers hoped to have four lanes open at all times for the duration of the project. So this is a change.

All in all, a 3-day shutdown is small price to pay for a great improvement in safety.

The road closure is still months away.

For More Information

For more information about the project including construction plans, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/2/24

2348 Days since Hurricane Harvey

After Quitting Time, Contractor Pumps Silty Stormwater into Street

1/31/24 – At 5:20 today, about the time government inspectors usually knock off work and the sun was setting, I got a tip from a reader. The reader alerted me to flooding on Kings Park Way near West Lake Houston Parkway, adjacent to a new Trammell-Crow apartment complex that Harris County Engineering had cited for stormwater violations. I hustled down there. Here is what I found.

One Lane Flooded

The contractors were pumping silty stormwater into the street and flooding one lane of the road.

The hose pumping the water into the street appeared to be at least 4 inches.

They had placed sand bags around one storm drain to help filter the silt.

But the silty stormwater was so deep, it flowed in both directions…

…straight into another unprotected City of Houston storm drain down the block.

Mud covered sidewalks ankle deep…

…while an excavator dug a trench to make more muck flow toward the pump.

From the wet marks on the pavement, it appeared that the discharge had covered the entire right lane at one point.

This is Phase II of an apartment complex development. The land you see is owned by Kingwood Residences HTX and HTX II LLC. Both LLCs are owned by High Street Residential, a wholly owned operating subsidiary of Trammell Crow Company in Dallas. Their local headquarters are on 2800 POST OAK BLVD STE 400, HOUSTON TX 77056-6169. In case you chose to write them.

Public-Safety Issue

According to one study, “Sediment pollution is the single most common source of pollution in U.S. waters. Approximately 30% is caused by natural erosion, and the remaining 70% is caused by human activity. Construction activity is the most common source of sediment pollution. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, sediment pollution causes approximately $16 billion in environmental damage annually.”

Clogged drains affect road safety. Clogged rivers affect flood safety.

After Hurricane Harvey, the Army Corps found that sediment had blocked 90% of the West Fork. Dredging cost hundreds of millions of dollars. And another email from a boater that I found waiting for me when I got home from the disaster site alerted me to the fact that sediment is building back in at an alarming rate.

Perhaps Mr. Crow could help with the next round of dredging. In 2020, Trammell Crow Holdings was worth an estimated $19.6 billion.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/31/24

2346 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Developer on WLHP Cited for Stormwater Violations

In response to citizen complaints, Harris County Engineering has visited a construction site on West Lake Houston Parkway three times and issued an unspecified number of stormwater violations.

Both phases of the development, Kingwood Residences HTX and HTX II LLC, are owned by High Street Residential, a wholly owned operating subsidiary of Trammell Crow Company in Dallas. Apartments are being built on Phase I. Meanwhile, Phase II is still in the clearing phase.

According to Danielle Cioce, Manager of the County Engineering Department’s Watershed Protection Group, “They are in the process of making the necessary repairs. We will continue to monitor the site to ensure it comes into compliance and remains that way.”

However, as of today, the developer appeared to fall short of compliance. I saw no activity on the portion of the site still being cleared. The reason was unclear. Cioce did not respond to multiple requests for comment today.

Effective Stormwater Measures Still Not in Place

I visited the site myself three times in the last week and have seen few changes since my initial post on this subject two weeks ago in response to a reader complaint.

The developer lacked normal safeguards against sediment escaping from the site, such as silt fences. Neither did the developer have sandbags to catch sediment in street gutters before it entered storm drains.

Such sediment escaping into the San Jacinto West Fork has been connected with flooding in the Lake Houston Area. The Army Corps estimated that the San Jacinto West Fork was 90% blocked near here after Hurricane Harvey.

How much of the sediment in the river is natural and how much man-made? One study found that approximately 30% of sediment pollution is caused by natural erosion, and the remaining 70% is caused by human activity. Construction activity is the most common source of sediment pollution, according to the study.

During a break in the rains last week, I photographed the High Street Residential site on West Lake Houston Parkway. It lies between Upper Lake and Kings Park Way. Without any of the normal safeguards, silty water poured off the site straight into storm sewers.

Photo taken 1/24/24 at West Lake Houston Parkway and Kings Park Way shows silt stormwater escaping into street.
Same day. Slightly different angle shows volume of muck.
Same day. Ground level shot shows runoff streaming into unprotected drain. Note lack of silt fence.
Runoff streamed over curb.
The Army Corps, City, and TWDB recently spent $220 million on dredging the East and West Forks.

What Construction Plans Say Should Happen

I received the approved construction plans from HCFCD via a FOIA Request. They clearly state that contractors should have sediment protection controls in place before starting construction. Regulations also require the contractor to:

  • Document the date of installation of erosion control measures
  • Retain measures in place until permanent stabilization of soil
  • Make field adjustments as needed to maintain the effectiveness of all measures
  • Keep a record of weekly inspections that verify measures are functioning properly.

But that’s not all. See the two screen captures below from the construction plans.

Photos Taken 1/29/24 Show Aftermath of Last Week’s Rain

I returned to the site today, two and a half days after the rain stopped. Water was down slightly, but contractors still had not installed effective stormwater control measures.

Silt fence was missing. So were sandbags to guard the storm drains. In some places where silt fence had been installed, it had fallen over from the weight of runoff accumulated behind it. In other places sediment had collected knee-high to the top of the silt fences. See below.

Silt fence guarding the stormwater detention basin overwhelmed by eroded sediment. This suggests volume of runoff in other areas without silt fence.
Phase I has no silt fence along most of the perimeter. Shown here: construction in progress along Upper Lake is guarded by a chain-link fence.

The developer had installed sandbags in a gap in the silt fence, but left gaps in the line of sandbags.

Note gaps in silt fence toward corner. That faint line guarding the corner is a line of sandbags. But…

The gaps channeled stormwater straight toward the storm drain in the first sequence of photos. See below.

Enlargement from previous photo shows gaps in line that channeled runoff toward street drains.

Accidental or intentional. You be the judge.

Someone will have to spend a lot of time in the “how come” room on this one.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/29/24

2344 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

All Floodwaters Receding, But Flood Warnings Remain in Effect

1/28/24, 2PM – After a week of near-constant rain and flooding, all river and lake gauges in the area show floodwaters receding, even if they aren’t below flood stage yet.

Whew! If you didn’t flood, you can stop worrying.

Nevertheless, the National Weather Service (NWS) still has flood warnings in effect for the areas:

  • Near the San Jacinto East Fork at FM1485 in New Caney. The warning affects people in Montgomery, Harris and Liberty Counties. Expect moderate flooding, primarily in low lying areas through Tuesday. The river is currently at 62′; flood stage is 58′ at that location.
  • West Fork around US59 until Monday afternoon. The river was at 51.4 feet, but bankfull is 45.3 feet.
  • Around Sheldon, below the Lake Houston Dam until tomorrow morning.

Photos Before, During, After Flood Crests

Below are 18 pictures I and a reader (who prefers to remain anonymous) took this week shortly before and after flood crests arrived. Each is dated and appears in chronological order. Together, they give you an idea of the extent of flooding. People who live in low-lying areas near major rivers were most affected.

But others, still suffering PTSD from previous floods, watched and waited with a sense of impending doom, wondering whether the water would claim their homes. It was a week of high anxiety and sleepless nights for many.

East Fork at Plum Grove

FM2090 over East Fork San Jacinto at Plum Grove. Thursday, 1/25/24.

It was hard to tell where the East Fork was at times. The river had penetrated an adjacent sand mine in multiple places and was flowing through it.

East Fork (upper left) broke through dike of abandoned sand mine and started flowing through it. Thursday, 1/25/24.
Rising water flooded the sand mine and isolated an adjacent house. Thursday, 1/25/24.
Looking west toward West Fork across Northpark South. Despite the ditch that contractors dug to drain the wetlands, a lot of water is still ponding. Thursday, 1/25/24.

West Fork in Humble/Kingwood Area

On Friday, 1/26/24, rising West Fork floodwaters near US59 invaded the neighborhood north of the bridge.
West Fork at US59 on Friday, 1/26/24. Rising water flooded turnarounds under the freeway on both sides of the river.
Friday, 1/26/24. Confluence of West Fork (right) and Spring Creek (left). Contrast enhanced to show that flow came predominantly from West Fork at this time.
Saturday 1/27/24. Homes isolated by floodwaters just south of New Caney ISD’s New West Fork High School (upper right).
Looking west, farther downstream on the West Fork at homes along Lake Point and North Shore Drives.
Saturday 1/27/24. KSA River Grove Park parking lot, boardwalk, and bridge to soccer fields were all under water.
Saturday 1/27/24. Golf course near Barrington subdivision flooded.
Saturday 1/27/24. Edgewater Park at US59 and West Fork partially underwater.
Kingwood County Club’s Forest Course becomes a Water Course south of Kingwood Greens subdivision.
At Kings Harbor on Saturday 1/27/24, water topped the pier, and the riverwalk, but didn’t get into businesses.
Sunday, 1/28/24. Looking at West Fork and adjacent sand mines from Northpark Woods. Note multiple breaches in dikes of two abandoned sand mines. Photo courtesy of reader.
Sunday 1/28/24. Courtesy of reader. Looking west past Northpark Woods (lower right). Note level of water in ditch. Google Earth measurement shows the water extends more than 3,000 feet up the ditch. That’s more than half a mile.
Farther up the ditch, you can see silty water from the mines on left and right mixing with water in the ditch. Photo courtesy of same reader.

Takeaways from Flood

I took several things away from this experience.

  1. Sediment mainly moves during floods. It’s too early to tell how much moved and whether it will be enough to impair the conveyance of rivers, bayous, creeks and ditches. But this flood represents a major opportunity for the engineers conducting the SJRA’s sedimentation study.
  2. Even relatively small amounts of rain (a couple inches per day) caused some major heartburn.
  3. The SJRA’s modeling nailed the flood peak on the West Fork. Even when the National Weather Service was predicting a peak in the 52′ range at US59, the SJRA said it would be 53.5′. The actual peak was 53.71, within tens of an inch.
  4. SJRA claimed the rainfall in the Lake Creek watershed was a major contributor. They don’t control that. It joins the West Fork downstream from the Lake Conroe Dam. A gage on Lake Creek showed 9.8 inches fell there in five days – among the highest totals for the region.
  5. The recent freeze killed a lot of vegetation that would normally have slowed runoff. That contributed to faster, higher peaks, according to testimony given during the SJRA board meeting last week.
  6. The SJRA did a much better job of communicating its gate operations to the public during this storm than ever before. It sent out a stream of press releases explaining what it was doing and why. I even received a personal call from an SJRA board member at 9pm before they increased their release rate to 19,500 cfs.
  7. The timing of the calls to news media got the news of the release on the 10 o’clock news before people went to bed. During Harvey, that didn’t happen. Many people were caught sleeping in bed by rising flood waters and had to evacuate by boat. Lesson learned.
  8. We need to do a damage assessment both upstream and downstream from the Lake Conroe dam to see where damage was concentrated. Did the SJRA do a good job of balancing upstream and downstream interests? Could gate operations have been improved?
  9. The SJRA says it waited to release water until it got within 6 inches of the top of its tainter gates. Had the water gone over the top of the tainter gates, they could have lost control. The gates would have become inoperable and the dam could have been placed in jeopardy.
  10. One leading hydrologist told me, “Understanding watershed hydrology is difficult. It rained quite a bit over a very large area. Watersheds all respond differently. The timing of the runoff reaching channels is crucial. How it combines with all of the other runoff from different places is key.”
  11. We need more floodgates on Lake Houston.

The worst of this event is behind us. Now comes the hard part. Cleaning up.

I wasn’t able to cover every area that flooded during this event. So, if you have photos of the flood or its impact that you would like to share, please submit them through the contact page of this website. Understand that all photos used here are in the public domain and may be shared by others. Finally, please indicate whether you would like a picture credit, and if so, how it should read.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/28/2024

2343 Days since Hurricane Harvey

How Bad Was That Storm?

A week of rain has ended. Flood crests are passing. And many are asking, “How bad was that storm?”

The short answer to the question: depending on where you live in the region, you got a 1- to 5-year rainfall.

Why is that? And how do you determine it? It’s simple. Let’s start with the rainfall.

Step One: Determine the Amount of Rainfall You Got

If you don’t have a rain gauge, go to the Harris County Flood Warning System. Elsewhere in Texas, you can go to the Texas Water Development Board’s Mesonet.

For demonstration purposes, let’s focus on the Harris County Flood Warning System.

By default, the home page shows a map with the locations of gages with rainfall in the last 24 hours. But you can also select other time periods in the sidebar. The storm dropped water during most of the week. So I selected “7 Days.” I also selected “All Gages” to see the varying amounts of rainfall across the region.

Then I clicked “Watersheds,” and “Channels.” Automagically, 7-day rainfall totals appear over a map that lets you see which watersheds the rain fell in. That determines how it will work its way downstream to the Gulf.

From Harris County Flood Warning System on 1/27/24 at 6:18 am.

On the low side, values ranged from 4″ to 6″ south of Lake Houston. On the high side, they ranged from 9″ to almost 11″ north and west of Lake Conroe. Such variation is common.

Step Two: Find the Duration and Distribution of the Rainfall

When you click on any gage location, a “For more information” box pops up. Click the link to see the distribution and duration of rainfall.

The gage at the San Jacinto West Fork and US59 received 5″ during five days. If a giant peak on one day outweighed all others, you might want to investigate that particular day further. But in this case, most days were within a half inch of each other.

Now, you’re ready to find how that compares to other storms.

Step Three: Compare Recorded Totals to Precipitation Frequency Estimates

Next, compare recorded rainfall to expected rainfalls of different intensities and durations.

Most hydrologists currently use precipitation frequency estimates called “Atlas 14.” NOAA determines them.

To find the estimates for your area, enter your address here. You should see a table like the one below although your numbers may vary slightly depending on where you live.

This is where some judgment comes in.

Determine the “best fit” between your observations and NOAA’s estimates.

So, I started by looking across the seven-day row and highlighted the first box. It showed 5.76 inches. The smaller numbers in parentheses indicate possible variation due to uncertainty. Almost all the lower numbers fell within this range.

At the high end of the observed rainfall totals, I highlighted the 10.4 inch box as the most representative. Again, all of the observed totals north and west of Lake Conroe fell into the range in parentheses.

Atlas-14 rainfall probability statistics for the Humble/Kingwood area.

Looking up to the top of the table, you can see that the highlighted boxes correspond to the volume of rain you could expect once every year to five-years. Meteorologists also refer to these as “100% and 20% annual-chance” storms.

If you live elsewhere on the map, you might find your area received a 50% annual-chance storm.

Rainfall Chances Do Not Automatically Translate into Flood Chances

For the record, the flood at the West Fork and US59 this morning peaked at 53.71 feet. That’s three feet LESS than a 10-year flood at this location.

From NWS at 6 am Saturday Jan. 27, 2024

So, in this case, the flood level was generally consistent with a 5-year rainfall upstream. But that’s not always the case.

Many people assume that a rainfall recurrence interval of 1- to 5 years automatically translates into the same probabilities for flooding. It doesn’t.

First, for large watersheds, such as the San Jacinto, rain can vary drastically. Variation upstream will determine how high the resulting water surface elevations are at various points downstream when peaks arrive.

Also understand that annual exceedance probabilities for floods incorporate many more variables than rainfall probabilities. For instance:

  • Landscape/Slope – Is it flat or hilly? Will water be bottlenecked or does it have room to spread out?
  • Degree of development – Are you surrounded by farms or do you live in an urban area which produces more runoff faster?
  • Soil type – More water infiltrates into sandy soils than clay.

Regardless, engineers still consider rainfall probabilities.

How Engineers Use Rainfall Estimates

Why are rainfall estimates important? Engineers must design drainage and infrastructure to handle extreme rainfalls.

For instance, most storm sewers are designed to handle the type of rain you can expect every year or two. When you see water ponding in streets or underpasses, it’s because the storm sewers can’t carry the water away fast enough.

Houston’s recently upgraded infrastructure design standards aim to keep structures safe in a 100-year event. It matters not whether the rain happens in five minutes or 60-days.

Engineers use these estimates when determining the elevation of homes, setbacks from a river, the size of stormwater detention basins and more.

When you see flooding of streets or neighborhoods, it’s generally a sign that:

  • Rainfall exceeded the design standard
  • Something changed, for instance, a sewer was blocked, sediment has clogged a drainage ditch, etc.
  • Someone miscalculated or cut corners during design and construction
  • Infrastructure was designed to old (lower) rainfall probability standards.
Last night, before the West Fork (upper left) peaked, water started flowing across Hamblen Road, cutting off some residents in North Shore.

Experts base the probability of extreme future events on the frequency of extremely rare past events using a branch of mathematics called extreme value analysis.

It’s important to understand that rainfall probability estimates change periodically – especially after major storms, such as Tropical Storm Allison or Hurricane Harvey. Meteorologists acquire additional data on extreme storms from these events.

All rainfall probability estimates represent best guesses given knowledge at a point in time.

NOAA is already working on Atlas-15 estimates. Atlas 15 will take climate change estimates into account for the first time.

Going forward, NOAA will compile new precipitation-frequency estimates every 10-years.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/27/24

2342 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flood Crests Closer to Lake Houston

Friday, 1/26/24 – Flood crests moved closer to Lake Houston this morning. Crests in the upper Lake Houston Area should happen today and tomorrow. Here is today’s lake and river report based on information provided by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.

While rain chances will be high today, actual amounts will be low – generally less than .50 of an inch and more likely less than .25 of an inch. This amount of rainfall will not cause any additional flooding over the region. Drier and cooler conditions will filter into the area over the weekend.

Run-off from the rains this week continues with several rivers flooding, but we are starting to see some crests and slow improvement as flood waves move downstream.

Lake Conroe

The level in Lake Conroe started decreasing this morning. So did the SJRA’s release rate by 3,000 cubic feet per second. It is now down to 16,500 CFS at noon.

Spring Creek: 

Spring creek has crested and fallen rapidly in the headwaters to SH 249 overnight. The middle and lower portion of the creek is cresting and will fall today. Minor flooding along the creek will subside.

Upper Cypress Creek: 

Run-off from Waller County has finally reached upper Cypress Creek with flooding now in progress at Sharp Road. The creek is slowly rising and will crest later today, but remain above bankfull into tonight. Flooding of portions of Sharp Rd is ongoing and will continue. No flooding is expected downstream of Katy Hockley where the capacity of the creek increases.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River (Lake Conroe to SH 99)

The river has crested overnight and is starting to fall, but remains above major flood levels with widespread impacts ongoing. Water levels will be decreasing slowly today and then faster into the weekend.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River (US 59 to Lake Houston):

The river began a secondary rise overnight and it is continuing this morning with a long duration crest later today into Saturday around 52.5ft.

Jeff Lindner

The US 59 turn arounds under the US 59 bridge crossing are under water and will be flooded well into the weekend.

Several streets on the north bank of the river are flooded including Lakeshore, Northshore, River Bend, and Lake Point. The majority of the flooding will occur south of Hamblen Rd…although a few location north of Hamblen could see high water. The few structures in this area are elevated and are cut-off into the weekend as water levels remain elevated.

Large portions of the Kingwood Golf course are/will be flooded. At these levels back water will also begin to effect tributary drainage channels into the river and higher than normal water is likely along these tributaries. No flooding of homes is expected in Kingwood. See inundation map below.

West Fork inundation map in Humble/Kingwood area as of 11am 1/26/24

Note: There is about a 6.0 ft difference in the water surface elevation between US 59 and West Lake Houston Pkwy. We are NOT going to get to 52.5ft at W Lake Houston Pkwy…we will see levels between 46.0-47.0 ft at crest.  

East Fork of the San Jacinto River:    

The river rose 6-8 ft overnight from Plum Grove to New Caney with widespread low land flooding along the river in progress from above Plum Grove to Lake Houston.

East Fork at FM1485. As of 11 am, the river was still above 68 feet.

FM 1485 west of the river bridge is now flooded and will be impassable for an extended period of time. Additionally, some roads on the west side of the river just downstream of FM 1485 will be flooded and elevated structures cut-off. Elevated structures downstream on the east river bank off River Terrace Rd will be cut-off. The river is forecasted to remain well above flood stage through the weekend.

Here are two inundation maps from Harris County’s Flood Warning System as of 11 am on 1/26/24.

If you live in an area not shown here, go to the interactive map, click on “inundation” in the left control panel, and scroll the map to your location.

Lake Houston: 

High flows are moving through Lake Houston…the total inflow into the Lake from all combined run-off sources this morning was 67,580 cfs with a total discharge of 50,878 over the spillway and through the tainter gates.

Since the inflow is still greater than the outflow the lake level will still rise some today. Water levels throughout the lake are elevated and above the bulkheads and docks at several locations.

Lower San Jacinto River below Lake Houston: 

The river is rising with minor flooding now ongoing at Sheldon (HWY 90). Minor to moderate flooding is forecasted along the river from below Lake Houston to Galveston Bay.

Low lying areas of Sheldon, Banana Bend, Highland Shores, and Rio Villa will experience flooding of roadways and may become cut-off (Rio Villa). Higher than normal flows will impact vessel traffic around I-10 and vessels should be properly secured for a period of prolonged increased flows and high water levels.

The river will peak between 6.0-8.0 ft at Rio Villa Saturday. This area should be prepared for rising water today and potentially being cut-off as the water overtops Wallisville Rd.

Trinity River: 

Major flooding is forecasted from below Lake Livingston to Goodrich and near Liberty. Some homes below the lake will be flooded. Several subdivisions will be cut-off around Liberty and at the current forecasted levels…widespread extensive flooding over portions of Liberty County near the river and its tributaries can be expected.

For Current Information at Any Time

Current water levels and inundation can be found at www.harriscountyfws.org

River forecast can be found at National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/25/2024 based on information from Jeff Lindner

2341 Days since Hurricane Harvey

For Most, Life Returned to Normal Today, But Flooding Is Not Done Yet

5PM 1/25/24 – After four days of near constant rainfall, life returned to normal this morning. The sun came out. Birds sang. But for some, the ordeal is not done yet.

Crests on several creeks and area rivers are moving downstream and should converge on the Lake Houston Area this weekend.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, waves of water are still working their way down through our river systems. Low lying areas along both forks are already flooding upstream

Another disturbance will likely produce a few showers Friday afternoon into the evening hours, but accumulations will likely not top a half inch, according to Lindner.

Then dry and cooler weather over the weekend will give the area a chance to dry out. And rivers, creeks, and streams will have time to recede.

Lake Updates

Reservoirs throughout the region are passing large inflows through their gates.

At 5PM, Lake Conroe was three feet above normal and releasing 19,435 cubic feet per second adding to peaks on the West Fork San Jacinto.

Lake Houston was two feet above normal. Its floodgates have remained wide open since last Sunday and water is pouring over the spillway portion of the dam.

River Forecasts Show Peaks Traveling Downstream

Throughout today, flooding continued along several creeks and rivers as upstream flood waves moved downstream. Many of the creeks will be cresting today and falling while several of the rivers will continue to rise into Friday and the weekend as run-off accumulates and moves downstream.

Upper Spring Creek: 

upstream of Hegar Road, Spring Creek has crested and is starting to fall quickly. It is near crest from Hegar Road downstream to SH 249. Conditions along the creek and the bridge crossings west of SH 249 will improve into tonight. The creek is still rising downstream of FM 2978 and some minor low land flooding will be possible near the creek banks tonight.  

Attempts to cross some of the bridges this morning resulted in high water rescues. Never drive into high water.

Little Mound/Upper Cypress Creeks: 

Mound Creek has crested and begun a very slow fall. The flood wave has reached Sharp Rd. on upper Cypress Creek and Cypress is rising. It will get to or just over bankfull tonight. Portions of Sharp Rd. may become flooded.

Flow may get high down at Katy Hockley. But at this time Lindner is not expecting any widespread impacts at or downstream of Katy Hockley as the capacity of the channel increases from Katy Hockley to US 290.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River: 

The river leveled off today, but will begin a second rise tonight into Friday. Upstream flows at SH 242 and SH 99 as well as flows from Lake Creek are moving downstream.

The US 59 turn arounds under the US 59 bridge are under water and will remain flooded well into the weekend.

Note flooded turnarounds under US59 bridge at noon 1/25/24.

Several streets on the north bank of the river are flooded including Lakeshore, Northshore, River Bend, and Lake Point.

Car parked on Lake Point Drive south of Hamblen Road this morning. West Fork in background.

The majority of the flooding will occur south of Hamblen Road, according to Lindner.

Homes south of Hamblen next to West Fork on 1/25/24 around 9AM.

However, he says a few locations north of Hamblen could see high water. And I took this photo West of 59 near the river this morning. Homes there were already surrounded by floodwaters.

South of Sorters-McClellan and West of US59, 10AM on 1/24/25

Most structures in these areas are elevated and could potentially become cut-off into the weekend as water levels remain elevated.

Large portions of the Kingwood Golf course are or will be flooded.

Kings Harbor on 1/25/24 around noon.

Kings Harbor was well above water this morning, But the pier was not. Cue Mr. Clean.

At predicted levels, Lindner says that back water will also begin to affect tributary drainage channels into the river and higher than normal water is likely along tributaries such as Bens Branch. However, no flooding of homes is expected in Kingwood.

NWS river forecast for West Fork at 59 as of 4PM 1/25/24. River could rise another foot before cresting.
East Fork of the San Jacinto River:    

The river has exceeded its banks and will continue to rise into the weekend from north of Plum Grove to Lake Houston.

East Fork San Jacinto at FM2090 in Plum Grove, Liberty County at 1:30PM on 1/25/24

This afternoon, when I took the shot above, I visited the Plum Grove VFD and found high-water rescue teams prepping for tomorrow and the weekend.

FM 1485 west of the river bridge over the East Fork will be flooded and impassable for an extended period of time starting this afternoon.

Additionally, some roads on the west side of the river just downstream of FM 1485 will be flooded and elevated structures cut-off. Elevated structures downstream on the east river bank off River Terrace Rd. will be cut-off.

The East Fork is forecasted to remain well above flood stage through the weekend.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
The East Fork at FM1485 should crest on Saturday, almost 11 feet above its current level.
Rising East Fork waters submerged a boardwalk in Kingwood’s East End Park, 1/25/24, midday. Photo courtesy of Sandy Krish
Lower San Jacinto River below Lake Houston: 

Upstream flow through Lake Houston will route into the lower San Jacinto River with high flows lasting through the weekend. Minor flooding is forecasted along the river from below Lake Houston to Galveston Bay. Low lying areas of Sheldon, Banana Bend, and Rio Villa will experience flooding of roadways and may become cut-off (Rio Villa).

Higher than normal flows will impact vessel traffic around I-10 and vessels should be properly secured for a period of prolonged increased flows and high water levels.

Expect the river to rise another four feet downstream of the dam.
Trinity River: 

Major flooding is forecasted from below Lake Livingston to Goodrich and near Liberty. Some homes below the lake will be flooded. Several subdivisions will be cut-off around Liberty and at the current forecasted levels…widespread extensive flooding over portions of Liberty County near the river and its tributaries can be expected.

The Trinity should rise another 2.5 feet near Liberty.

For More Information

Conditions are changing rapidly. For the most current information, always go straight to the source,

Current water levels and inundation can be found at www.harriscountyfws.org

River forecast can be found at National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

‘Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/25/24 at 5PM based on information provided by Jeff Lindner‘Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/25/24 at 5PM based on information provided by Jeff Lindner

2340 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flood Watches and Warnings Extended, Streams Starting to Flood

Update: I just got word that SJRA is starting to increase the release rate from Lake Conroe to up to 19,500 cubic feet per second as of 9PM Wednesday night. Their modeling suggests that will cause the West Fork at US59 to peak at 53.5 feet – above the major flood stage. The previously forecast peak this afternoon was 51.8 feet and flood stage is 49.3 feet. People in low-lying areas near the river, even those in elevated homes, should consider evacuating. The river may not recede below flood stage before next weekend.

National Weather Service (NWS) flood watches and warnings have been extended. Continued heavy rainfall today has many streams especially in the northern part of the Houston Region coming out of their banks.

NWS Houston/Galveston Office predicts that showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least 7am tomorrow, with most areas experiencing a 60% chance of rain. While additional accumulations should be mild tomorrow, the Weather Service warns that higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. The last wave of this marathon mess should push through overnight tonight. The sun may poke out by Thursday afternoon.

Rain-swollen confluence of San Jacinto West Fork (r) with Spring Creek (l) at US59 at noon Wednesday. The normal river bank is defined by the arc of small shrubs just right of center.
Low-lying streets in Lakewood Cove were already under water at noon today. West Fork is in upper left.

In the meantime, we aren’t out of the woods yet.

Flood Watch Through Noon Thursday

NWS has extended flood warnings and issued flood watches for large parts of SE Texas.

A flood watch means flooding is possible in the highlighted areas above.

Flood Warning Through Midnight Tonight

Much of the area picked up another 1-3 inches today with much higher totals off to the north and northwest from Columbus to Brenham to Lufkin where a swath of 8-12 inches has fallen since Sunday night, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.

A flood warning means flooding has already occurred or is expected in highlighted areas above.

Upstream run-off continues to work into creeks in northern Waller, northwest Harris, and Montgomery Counties along with the San Jacinto River basin.

Areas with Flooding Concerns

The Harris County Flood Warning System shows that several channels are already out of their banks (red dots) or in danger of coming out (yellow triangles).

Harris County FWS as of 5PM on 1/24/24

For up-to-the-minute readouts on the status of a channel near you, go to Harris County Flood Warning System. Use the “Map view options” to select Channels, Channel Status. Under site selection, choose All.

Streams with Highest Flood Risk

According to Lindner, several creeks feeding into Lake Houston are already flooding. They include:

Upper Spring Creek: 

Low land flooding of rural lands near the creek as well as roadway crossing across the creek is occurring from upstream of SH 249 to the headwaters. Several low bridge crossings over the creek are flooded and some impassable. The creek will peak tonight and begin a fall into Thursday. No structures have flooded. Any low-land flooding downstream of SH 249 will be limited as the capacity of the channel increases.

Little Mound/Upper Cypress Creeks: 

Low-land flooding is ongoing along Mound Creek from eastern Waller County into extreme western Harris County. Water levels will peak tonight, then fall into Thursday. Flow from Little Mound Creek will route into upper Cypress Creek where a rise to near bankfull is likely around Sharp Rd. Sharp Rd may become inundated on Thursday. No structure flooding foreseen.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River: 

The river is rising and will exceed its banks this evening and continue to rise into moderate flood levels over 50.0 ft on Thursday with a forecasted peak near 52.0 ft on Friday. At these levels, low land flooding will occur along much of the river from upstream of US 59 to Lake Houston.

The US 59 turn arounds under the US 59 bridge crossing will be under several feet of water. The City of Houston has already closed off traffic under the turnarounds.

Several streets on the north bank of the river will be flooded including Lakeshore, Northshore, River Bend, and Lake Point.

The few structures in this area are elevated and could potentially become cut-off into the weekend as water levels remain elevated. At these levels back water will also begin to affect tributary drainage channels into the river and higher than normal water is likely along these tributaries. No flooding of homes is expected in Kingwood.

East Fork of the San Jacinto River:    

The river is rising and will exceed its banks early Thursday and then continue to rise into moderate flood levels by late Friday into Saturday. FM 1485 west of the river bridge will be flooded and impassable for an extended period of time. Additionally, some roads on the west side of the river just downstream of FM 1485 will be flooded and elevated structures cut-off. Elevated structures downstream on the east river bank off River Terrace Rd will be cut-off. The river is forecasted to remain well above flood stage through the weekend. 

Lake Houston: 

Water levels will be elevated likely to the top or just over the top of bulkheads and docks in the lake as upstream flows are passed through the lake. Additionally, large amounts of floating debris will make any boating hazardous into the weekend.

Lower San Jacinto River below Lake Houston: 

While flooding is currently not forecasted, given the amount of water that will be moving through Lake Houston and over the spillway, a rise to potentially near flood levels is certainly possible downstream of Lake Houston at Sheldon, Banana Bend, and Rio Villa. Low lying roads near the river may become inundated. Any possible flooding at locations below Lake Houston would be this weekend.   

Lake Releases

At 5PM 1/24/24, the SJRA dashboard showed that Lake Conroe as at 203.78 feet, almost 3 feet above its normal elevation of 201 feet. SJRA has temporarily closed Lake Conroe because of high currents, submerged objects and floating debris.

Because of continuing high inflows, SJRA was releasing 16,525 cubic feet per second at 5PM. They have steadily increased the volume released for the last three days.

To put this in perspective, 16,525 CFS is half the discharge rate of Lake Conroe during the October 1994 storm. And it’s about a fifth of the maximum release rate during Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

Farther south, Houston Public Works has had its flood gates wide open since Sunday. Regardless, water is now going over the spillway. Normal lake level is 42.4 ft and it’s currently at 43.57 ft.

According to the Harris County Flood Warning System, water has been going over the top of the spillway since 4AM this morning.

Helpful Resources

Weather conditions can change rapidly. For current information, go straight to these sources:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/24/24 at 6PM

2339 Days since Hurricane Harvey

NWS Issues Flood Watch

Early this morning, the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for areas north of the Houston Metropolitan area. It will remain in effect through midnight tonight.

As of 2PM, NWS extended the flood watch to include Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty Counties through Wednesday morning.

Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts heavy rainfall toward I-10 and the coast by tonight. More rain on top of what has already fallen along with elevated creeks and streams led to issuing the flood watches.

Five of the six watersheds most in danger of flooding flow into the Lake Houston Area. And the SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe.

Flood watch map from NWS Houston/Galveston office for Wednesday AM

Forecast for Next 48 Hours

The ground has generally been saturated by yesterday’s rain and NWS predicts additional heavy rains today and tomorrow. The total could approach another 4.5 inches in the Lake Houston Area and even more to the north and west.

Those same areas received the highest rainfall totals yesterday on 1/22/24. Luckily, the rain has been fairly spread out until now.

Only One Stream in Region Currently Out of Banks

The San Jacinto West Fork came out of its banks at Highway 30 yesterday afternoon and is still out at noon on Tuesday, although waters have receded approximately a foot since the peak early this morning.

However, the Harris County Flood Warning system is also flashing warning signs for areas in the upper Cypress and Spring Creek Watersheds. All of those creeks are still within their banks as of noon Tuesday.

The map below shows the rainfall totals for the last 48 hours. Note how they peak in the north and west.

A gage on the Trinity River just west of Lake Livingston (not shown below) received 4.8 inches in the last 36 hours.

Two-day totals as of Noon 1/23/24

Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Releasing Water

Heavy rains north and west of Lake Conroe have led the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) to open the floodgates at Lake Conroe. The lake level is currently at 201.61 feet (normal 201) and the SJRA is releasing at a rate of 2665 cubic feet per second as a precaution against much larger releases later.

The City began releasing water from Lake Houston last Sunday in anticipation of this rainfall. At the noon hour on 1/23/24, Lake Houston is still slightly below normal. It is at 41.57 feet; normal is 42.4. But there’s much more headed toward the dam.

How to Monitor Flood Potential

If you live near water, monitor conditions closely.

Remember: It’s not just the rain that falls where you are at that causes flooding. Look upstream to see what’s coming at you.

We should begin to see some rises in the Lake Houston Area soon because of Lake Conroe releases and the heavy rainfall upstream on Spring and Cypress Creeks. They are the three main tributaries that govern the volume of water flowing into Lake Houston from the west.

The West Fork at US59 is still well below flood stage because of the Lake Houston release. Regardless, the river rose there almost 2 feet in the last 16 hours.

Streams Most in Danger of Flooding

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, expects the heaviest rains to shift from the north toward the south later today. Lindner said, “Rises will continue along upper Spring and upper Cypress Creeks this morning as upstream run-off moves downstream.” 

“No flooding is currently expected,” continued Lindner, “but high flows in these creeks will continue today into tomorrow. This area will be particularly sensitive to additional rainfall and will need to be monitored closely.”

“Also watch the San Jacinto River basin,” said Lindner. “Due to the widespread nature of the rains, run-off is starting to work into the basin and minor flooding will be possible along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River later this week.”

Lindner says the Harris County streams most in danger of flooding include:

  • Cypress Creek
  • Spring Creek
  • Little Cypress Creek
  • Lower South Mayde Creek
  • Willow Creek 
  • San Jacinto River basin

All but Mayde Creek flow into Lake Houston. If you are unfamiliar with the watersheds around us, here is a map.

watershed map of Harris County
Harris County Watershed map by HCFCD

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/23/24

2338 Days since Hurricane Harvey

HCFCD Flood-Mitigation Spending Down for Third Straight Year

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) flood-mitigation spending finished down for the third year in a row last year. Spending for all four quarters totaled $243.1 million, a little more than half of its peak in 2020.

Spending for 2023 was 56% of its 20-year peak in 2020 at $433 million. Here are the exact amounts spent by HCFCD year by year since 2000.

Possible Reasons for Slowdown

HCFCD flood-mitigation spending increased each quarter last year, but the total wasn’t enough to prevent another annual decline.

HCFCD watchers have conjectured about possible reasons for the slowdown. They include:

Bond Fully Funded, But Inflation Taking Toll

Despite the slowdown, there was some very good news last year. During 2023, thanks to those HUD funds, the 2018 flood bond became fully funded.

The original bond contained approximately $5 billion in projects. But voters approved only $2.5 billion. The ambitious project list associated with the bond contained a bet that HCFCD could raise as much money from partners as it did from voters. And last year, the District did just that. Partner commitments now exceed another $2.5 billion.

Now, HCFCD must spend the money before inflation steals it away. Inflation has already reduced the purchasing power of bond funds by 15-20% in the last four years. Twenty percent of a $5 billion, is another billion that the grant writers must raise just to stay even.

Where is Money Going? Will There Be Enough to Finish All Projects?

That raises two questions, “Where is the money going?” It certainly isn’t going proportionally to all watersheds or precincts.

The four graphs and tables below show where the flood-bond money and partner money has gone since Harvey and during the last quarter.

County-wide projects include such things as planning, MAAPnext, subdivision drainage projects and preliminary planning for flood tunnels (see Z-level projects at end of list).

Q3 2017 through end of 2023.

Note that “Since Harvey” includes a year’s worth of spending not in the flood bond. Voters passed the bond on the first anniversary of Harvey. The District spent $172 million during that year. So the actual amount of bond/partner funds spent to date should total a bit over $1.8 billion.

Q4 2023 Spending Shows Shifts in Some Spending Priorities

Compare those figures with the last quarter of 2023 to see how priorities have or haven’t changed.

By comparing this bar chart with the one immediately above, we can see that relative spending in the San Jacinto watershed has remained consistent if dismal. The county’s largest watershed ranked 14th since Harvey and 13th last quarter.

Other noteworthy observations:

Brays Bayou spending dropped to fourth place from its perennial spot atop the pyramid. Most projects in Project Brays are now completed.

Willow Creek dropped from eighth place to last.

Sims Bayou jumped from 12th place to 6th.

Spending in the Little Cypress Creek watershed jumped to first place from fifth…even outpacing county-wide spending. That may be related to engineering for several large land purchases made earlier in the bond for the Harris County Frontier Program. The Frontier Program buys land in optimal locations in developing watersheds for flood-mitigation projects, such as detention basins. Then it leases capacity back to developers.

Fourteen watersheds received less than a million dollars in spending last quarter.

Based on data obtained via FOIA Request

And four watersheds of Harris County’s 23 watersheds received less than $100,000 last quarter.

The difference in spending between the high and low watersheds last quarter was more than 500 to 1!

I need more time to dig into these numbers. Look for additional analysis in the days to come.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/22/2024

2337 Days since Hurricane Harvey

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