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How May 2024 Flood Compared to Harvey

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) briefed the County’s Community Resilience Flood Task Force on how the extent of the May 2024 flood compared to Hurricane Harvey. In places, inundation matched Harvey. And in others it came close or fell short.

See the inundation map below. In my opinion, it dramatizes three things:

Serious flooding can happen any month of the year in the Houston region.
Flooding can happen anywhere that rain falls.
Flood-mitigation measures make a huge difference.

*Inundation map from HCFCD comparing Harvey with May 2024 floods and evacuation zones.*

Anytime

As the map above shows, major rain can fall outside of a hurricane season. In fact, May is usually the third wettest month of the year in Houston, exceeded only by June and October.

Of seven major storms to strike this area since 2016, four have happened outside of hurricane season.

Anywhere

The worst rainfall in the early May floods happened at the very top of the San Jacinto river basin in the upper portions of the East and West Forks. Parts of those watersheds received almost 20 inches of rain.

In Huntsville, Harvey dumped only 2 more inches of rain than a training band of thunderstorms in May 2024. The map above shows the results.

Cypress, Spring and Lake Creeks, which originate on the west side, received roughly a quarter to a third of the rain that fell to the north during early May.

*Rainfall totals for 8 days before May 6, 2024. Compare 18.4 at top of map to smaller totals farther south.* *From Harris County Flood Warning System.*

However, during Harvey, the rainfall distribution was the opposite of the map above. Huntsville received about 17 inches while areas to the south received more than 40.

Flood-Mitigation Measures

The inundation map above shows the importance of another location-related variable: upstream stormwater detention. Note how much more blue you see on the West Fork than on the East Fork which is predominantly green. The West Fork has a dam at Lake Conroe which partially blocked the heaviest flows. The East Fork has no dams.

But the East Fork and Luce Bayou do have the sprawling Colony Ridge Development. And Colony Ridge, especially the first 12,000 acres, has only a minuscule amount of stormwater detention. The development is now 50% larger than Manhattan.

Development usually increases the speed and volume of runoff. Developers normally use detention basins to limit post-development runoff to pre-development rates, so that they don’t increase flooding.

But for the most part, that didn’t happen in Colony Ridge. And that contributed to flooding downstream.

The inundation map above should be a wakeup call. Of 16 major flood-mitigation projects identified in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study, not one has even gotten to the drawing boards, much less off them – after four years.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/3/24

2500 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Beryl Becomes Earliest Cat 5 Hurricane Ever

7/2/24 – Beryl has become an incredibly intense hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 MPH and a central pressure of 935mb. See this Infrared Satellite Loop at Tropical Tidbits. This is an unprecedented hurricane event for July.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record since 1851. It beats out hurricane Emily (2005), which became a Category 5 on July 17.

Beryl is now moving through the central Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

Status Overview as of 8 AM 7/2/24

Based on NOAA aircraft data, hurricane force winds (75mph) extend outward 40 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds (40mph) extend outward 125 miles from the center.

Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph.

On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today. It should pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.

Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as it passes Jamaica and the Caymans.

Intensity Forecast Uncertain

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautions that Beryl’s intensity forecast is rather uncertain. Model guidance indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. Later on, factors such as:

Possible interaction with the Jamaican elevated terrain
Dry air intrusions
Structure of the vertical wind shear

…will all play a role in the rate of weakening.

As Beryl approaches the Yucatan, models show quite a wide range of solutions – from a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane. However, the NHC forecast shows Beryl reaching the Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 hours and emerging as a tropical storm into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Track Shifted North

Beryl has tracked slightly north of predictions during the last 12 hours. This is likely due to the much stronger intensity of the hurricane.

Overall the direction has been trending north over the last 24 hours. Beryl is being steered by a strong high pressure ridge to the north. A W to WNW motion through the next 72 hours is likely. That will likely bring core of the hurricane to the eastern Yucatan early Friday morning.

Beryl will cross into the southern Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend. At that time, the current ridge of high pressure over the southern plains will be breaking down and moving east. Low pressure should replace it, pulling Beryl a little more to north, compared to the current track.

However, there is also uncertainty with the track in the Gulf of Mexico. It is difficult to tell how organized Beryl will be when it emerges from the Yucatan. It is also difficult to predict how quickly the southern plains high will break down.

Such factors also will affect the forward speed of the hurricane.

Due to Beryl’s high forward speed, it could drop a foot of rain on Jamaica. But as it slows in the Gulf…

Lindner urges people along the Texas and Louisiana coast to monitor Beryl’s progress closely. NHC is now updating information on Beryl every few hours on this page.

For those who need a refresher course in hurricane preparation, ReduceFlooding’s Links page contains advice from 19 authoritative sources.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/2/24

2499 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Third Named Storm Puts 2024 Hurricane Season a Month Ahead

7/1/24. – Last night, Tropical Storm Chris became the third named storm of the 2024 hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the third named storm usually doesn’t happen until August. That puts the current hurricane season well ahead of the 30-year average for the Atlantic Basin.

Climatology Data from NHC

Data from 1991 through 2020 indicates we usually have one named storm in June and one in July before the Atlantic season heats up in August, September and October. Then we’re back to one in November.

However, the NHC and a variety of academic and commercial forecasters predicted an extremely active 2024 hurricane season because of high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear associated with the developing La Niña.

Tropical Storm Alberto has already come and gone. It dissipated into the Bay of Campeche last month. But we are now into July.

3 Areas of Interest Currently in Atlantic

At the moment, we have three areas of interest in the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Chris Dissipating

The remnants of Chris are currently moving inland over Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl Nearing High End of Cat 4

The eye of Beryl began crossing the Windward Islands this morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft measured 150 MPH sustained winds at 11:10 AM as Beryl made landfall on Carriacou Island.

150 MPH puts Beryl near the top of Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale that predicts wind damage. Category 4 goes from 130 MPH to 156 MPH.

NHC advises that in a Cat 4 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

However, Beryl is likely to encounter some wind shear in the Caribbean that will slow it down. The latest advisory from NHC predicts Beryl will weaken into a tropical storm before crossing the Yucatan and entering the Gulf on Saturday. See below.

Meanwhile NHC has urged island residents to shelter in place and not venture out during what it describes as “life-threatening conditions.”

Central Atlantic Still Disturbed

A third disturbance is still out in the central, tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. According to NHC, a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week. Formation chance through 2 days is low – only 20%. However, the chance through 7 days is medium – 50%.

Satellite images show training storms moving off the coast of Africa. This probably won’t be the last disturbance we see originating in these latitudes in coming weeks.

*From NOAA: https://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG*

Note Beryl spinning on the far left of the image above!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/24 based on information from NOAA and NHC

2498 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Beryl Goes from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in One Day

6/30/24, 4 PM – Beryl intensified from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds this afternoon.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. NHC predicts it will become a tropical storm by tonight and make landfall near where Alberto did in Mexico less than two weeks ago.

4PM Update on Beryl

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that the hurricane continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. Beryl has made only a minor shift to the north since this morning, following the trend in the latest models.

Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when the hurricane passes over portions of the Windward Islands. At highest risk: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.

*Latest cone of uncertainty for Beryl as of 3PM CDT*, *6/30/24*

As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should weaken it slightly. However, NHC predicts that Beryl will remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.

So far, the storm’s path has been eerily reminiscent of Harvey’s.

Here are the latest track forecasts of various models for today’s storm.

*Some models take the path toward Houston, but the consensus seems a bit west.*

Sea Surface Temps in Gulf

If Beryl makes it to the Gulf, it will encounter favorable sea surface temps.

*Sea Surface Temperature departures from normal. 2 degrees Celsius = 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.*

It is too early to predict atmospheric conditions in the Gulf next weekend.

Record-Breaking Beryl

As it spins across the Atlantic, Beryl has already set two records:

Farthest east a hurricane has ever formed in the Atlantic in June
Earliest Cat 4 Hurricane on record.

Before this storm, the record earliest Category 4 hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 4PM CDT on 6/30/24

2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Beryl Expected to Become Category 4 Hurricane

6/30/24, 7 AM CDT – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts that Hurricane Beryl could rapidly intensify into a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands early Monday morning. At 7 AM CDT, NHC estimated Beryl’s maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. That would currently make it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, which estimates damage to structures at various wind speeds. (See below.)

High SSTs, Low Wind Shear

Sea surface temperatures in Beryl’s path reach 84.2 degrees Fahrenheit, more typical of August than June. And as Beryl moves westward, wind sheer is decreasing. Both factors favor rapid intensification.

Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward islands.

Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane’s intensity to level off, then start weakening around midweek, according to NHC.

Eye Wall Development

Recent satellite imagery shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the eyewall and a warming eye.

*From National Hurricane Center at 6:20 CDT on 6/30/24*

Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured the maximum wind speed this morning.

Beryl Continues to Track Mostly Westward

The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west at about 20 mph. There aren’t any significant track changes from the previous advisory. An extensive mid-level, high-pressure ridge north of Beryl will steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days.

Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track. NHC’s 4 AM Atlantic Standard Time update notes that track prediction is basically an update of the previous one.

The farther out you get, the more models diverge. The average of all models eventually shows the storm moving into the western Gulf.

Category 4 Risks

This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward Islands. Beryl will bring destructive winds, life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall and flooding for much of the Windward Islands tonight and Monday.

Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale Categories

For those new to the Gulf Coast, the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based only on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed.

This scale does not take into account other potentially deadly hazards such as storm surge, rainfall flooding, and tornadoes.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale estimates potential property damage. While all hurricanes produce life-threatening winds, hurricanes rated Category 3 and higher are known as major hurricanes.

Major hurricanes can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage and significant loss of life simply due to the strength of their winds.

Hurricanes of all categories can produce deadly storm surge, rain-induced floods, and tornadoes.

Category	Sustained Winds	Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
1	74-95 mph	Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
2	96-110 mph	Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3 (major)	111-129 mph	Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4 (major)	130-156 mph	Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5 (major)	157 mph or higher	Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

From National Hurricane Center

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/24 at 7 AM CDT

2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey

TS Beryl Predicted to Reach Hurricane Strength within 24 Hours

6/29/24 1:30PM and updated at 3PM – Overnight, a tropical depression in the Atlantic turned into a tropical storm named Beryl. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted Beryl would intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. But it reached hurricane strength by approximately 3PM today. NHC now predicts, Beryl will become a category 3 major hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.

Some models predict it could even turn into a category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Caribbean. While it is generally headed toward the Gulf, the exact track remains uncertain this far out.

Beryl is one of the earliest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic. For advisories related to Beryl, see this page on the NHC site.

Meanwhile two other areas of concern are developing. One now over the Yucatan has a 50% chance of development. The other west of Africa has a 70% chance as of Saturday, 6/29/24 at 3PM CDT.

On top of all these storms, the Trinity River Authority has put the Lake Livingston Dam on “potential failure watch.”

Beryl Track

Beryl will continue west for the next 2-3 days. The storm’s strength will affect its track according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. Intensity will determine Beryl’s ability to fight high pressure to the north. The stronger it becomes, the farther north it will curve. The less it intensifies, the farther west it will track.

“At this point it is too early to determine the eventual longer term movement beyond the western Caribbean Sea,” cautions Lindner.

*National Hurricane Center cone of uncertainty for Beryl shows it becoming a major hurricane by Monday 7/1/24.*

*Most models predict a path toward the Gulf.*

*Different combinations of models take Beryl in slightly different directions.*

Beryl Intensity Forecasts

Lindner says that “conditions appear unusually favorable for this time of year and location for development.” Regional hurricane models (HWRF, HOMN, HAFSA, and HAFB) all show significant deepening of this system prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Well above-normal Atlantic water temperatures and low upper-level shear support continued development.

“The main question,” says Lindner, “is how quickly can Beryl form an inner core today or tonight and what potential is the upper end limit on intensification through the Islands?”‘

*Satellite Photo from 11:20 AM Houston time, 6/29/24. Beryl is in right-hand circle.*

Most models predict a 65 knot wind-speed increase in the next 72 hours. That far exceeds what climatology would suggest for this area for this time of year.

This morning, NHC forecasts a 110mph category 2 hurricane hitting the Windward Islands. They cautioned that their estimate might needed to be increased within the next 12-24 hours. But they increased it within six. By its 2 PM update, NHC predicted Beryl would reach major hurricane status before reaching the Windward Islands.

As Beryl moves deeper into the Caribbean Sea, wind sheer and dry air west of the storm could limit further intensification.

Lindner feels that Day 4-5 wind shear forecasts are not always reliable and the weakening trend shown on the right above may be somewhat overdone.

Another Storm Will Cross Gulf and Head into Mexico

A strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has reached the eastern coast of the Yucatan and Belize. See the left hand circle in the satellite photo above.

A large area of deep convection has formed. Land interaction and westerly wind shear will inhibit immediate development. However, there may be a brief window for modest development in the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday/Monday. Then the storm should move inland over eastern Mexico. Current development odds remain around 50%.

Third Storm has 70% Chance of Formation in Atlantic

NHC indicates that a third storm will likely form in the same area where Beryl is now. See the elongated oval below.

This tropical wave is currently located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing signs of organization. Another tropical depression or storm may form by the middle part of next week as this wave moves westward along a similar track as Beryl. Chances for development over the next several days are 70%.

Lake Livingston Dam on Failure Watch

With all this activity in the tropics, it is somewhat disconcerting that the Trinity River Authority has placed the Lake Livingston Dam on a “Potential Failure Watch” due to recent heavy rainfall and flooding.

TRA says the dam is in no immediate danger of failing or breaching. They also say that day-to-day operations will continue, but “gate operations will vary based on conditions.” Translation: They’ll be releasing more water faster in the event of more heavy rainfall.

Look out below.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/24 and updated at 3PM

2496 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started

6/28/24 – According to Houston Public Works’ website, the Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation Project next to Bear Branch Elementary was to have been completed today. But construction hasn’t even started yet.

Completion Scheduled for End of June

The latest update, posted just last Thursday, shows “end of June 2024” as the promised completion date.

*Screen capture from 4PM June 28, 2024, last workday of the month.*

But as of the end of the day today, equipment hadn’t moved in approximately two months, with the exception of moving an excavator farther back from the creek when erosion crept dangerously close to it in the May floods.

*Erosion from May floods threatened the parking spot for this construction equipment.*

Originally, Houston Public Works said construction would take 6 months. Now we have just 5 weeks before the start of the next school year.

Hurricane Approaching

Meanwhile, a tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic. And the National Hurricane Center predicts it will enter the Gulf as a hurricane approximately a week from now.

*On the current trajectory, Houston would be in the cone.*

There’s still a large degree of uncertainty associated with any storm this far out. But this underscores the fact that the Tree Lane Bridge project is far behind schedule and we are likely entering a very active hurricane season.

Development this far east in late June is unusual, according to the NHC. In fact, they say, “There have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.” Some models are already predicting this could become a major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4).

The lack of Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation progress will expose the bridge to even more erosion if this storm strikes the Houston area. As you can see, the bridge can’t afford much more.

Reasons for Delays

On June 13, Darryl Burrell, EIT, Graduate Engineer, Capital Projects for Houston Public Works, wrote, “There have been multiple instances of utility relocations.”

He added, “Some have already been completed. Our personnel are coordinating with multiple teams and entities. We are all working to get this issue alleviated in a timely manner.”

*Photo 6/13/24. That 12″ black pipe is reportedly a city water line that has been exposed since at least April 2022.*

I saw a cable company working at the location on 6/17/24, but nothing since then. That was almost two weeks ago. That swooping line in the foreground remains there today.

Editorial Comment: Enforce Deadlines

I’m not sure who is to blame, but would observe this.

As the City looks for ways to trim its budget, it should look at enforcing deadlines.

I wonder how many times contractors have had to reschedule crews around other contractors that didn’t do their jobs on time. That has to increase costs.

And one last issue. Construction delays exposed this area to even greater erosion. That may force revision of the engineering plan, construction drawings, bids, timetables and more.

Why do it once when you can do it twice? Sorry for the cynicism.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/24

2495 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Potential Trouble in the Tropics

6/27/24 5PM –The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted 2024 would become one of the most active hurricane seasons ever in the tropics. We’re not out of June yet. And we’ve already had one tropical storm. Now, another potential system is about to head from the Caribbean into the Gulf. And a third area of concern is barreling westward toward the Caribbean. See below.

Chances of Development

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Conditions may become slightly better for some organization of (the yellow area) once over the southern Gulf of Mexico.”

The red area shows signs of better organization today. NHC currently gives it an 80% chance of development in the next 7 days, and 60% in the next two.

Potential Tracks for Red Area

More important, some models suggest it could turn into a full blown major hurricane (Cat 3 or Cat 4). And one of the models shows the potential track shooting the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan into the central Gulf.

Intensity Could Reach Cat 4, Unusual This Early in Season

We’re still way too far out to predict with certainty what will happen, but it’s instructive to note some climatology. In the 30 years between 1991 and 2020, NHC says that the average date for the first hurricane was August 11. And the first major hurricane usually doesn’t happen until September 1.

That said, see what the models are forecasting 4 to 5 days out.

Current Satellite View of Two Systems

Models are great. But I’m also a great believer in eyeballs. Here’s what the two systems look like at 4:30 PM CDT from a satellite. Note the developing storms south of Florida and North of the eastern coast of South America.

Better to Be Prepared

As usual, I end such posts with a caution to pray for the best and prepare for the worst. I’ve posted a variety of links on preparedness from trusted sources on my Links Page. Just scroll down.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/27/24 at 5PM

2494 Days since Hurricane Harvey

After 4 Years, No Recommendations from River Basin Master Drainage Plan in Design Yet

After four years, not one of the recommendations from the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan is in design yet.

In the summer of 2020, Harris County Flood Control District, the City of Houston, Montgomery County, and the San Jacinto River Authority released a massive study on how to address flooding in the upper San Jacinto River Basin. But four years later, not one of the 16 main recommendations has been constructed. In fact, none are even in design yet, according to one source I talked to for this post.

Cost, political willpower, eminent-domain issues, and jurisdictional boundaries seem to have torpedoed any progress.

Major Recommendations in Plan

The 3,600 page study contained 16 main recommendations.

Here’s where they are.

However, Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Flood Management Division Director, says, “No construction has started on any of the major project recommendations (detention and channelization projects).”

Another source familiar with the plan complained that none are even in design yet. That source also cited unfavorable cost benefit ratios.

Expected Benefits of Plan

If built, these projects could make a real difference for people throughout Montgomery County and northern Harris County.

The following table shows how much the water surface elevation could be reduced in a 100-year storm at a number of locations if the recommendations were implemented.

Cost Issue

The 2020 study estimated that building all these projects could cost up to $3.3 billion. They would cost more today. We’ve had 20% inflation since then.

The total in today’s dollars could easily approach $4 billion. That’s a pretty major ask for taxpayers.

But the 2018 Harris County Flood Bond (approved before the study) included only $18.75 million dollars for “Funding for Future Partnership Projects Based on Results of Study – for Right-of-Way Acquisition, Design, and Construction of General Drainage Improvements in San Jacinto River Watershed Study.” See Project C-50.

Political Willpower

Funding for the gap will not come from any of the study sponsors.

Harris County Commissioners Court has prioritized “equity” projects in low-to-moderate income areas inside the Beltway. Some have even declared they will never vote for spending money outside of Harris County.

Most of the projects are outside the City of Houston and its extra-territorial jurisdiction.

The San Jacinto River Authority doesn’t have an income stream to fund the improvements.

And most Montgomery County Commissioners don’t see flooding as their most pressing problem.

Understandably, no one has seized the reins for these projects. Even if physically feasible, they don’t seem politically feasible at this point.

Eminent Domain and Jurisdictional Boundaries

Worse, 10 of the 16 projects are large stormwater detention areas that would likely require invoking eminent domain. That’s always politically dicey for politicians. Especially when the major benefits would accrue to downstream residents outside of their precincts – and even outside of their own county.

Better Lake Conroe Management Not Enough

As this multi-million study has been consigned to dusty bookshelves, flood-weary residents have increasingly pinned their hopes on better management of the Lake Conroe dam.

Seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe has morphed into “Active Storm Management,” a compromise between upstream and downstream interests on the San Jacinto West Fork. Instead of lowering the lake for set amounts for set periods of time each year, dam operators are now trying to lower it temporarily on the fly in advance of approaching storms. But that presents its own set of problems.

It also doesn’t affect water funneling in from other watersheds. The Lake Conroe watershed comprises only 13% of the Lake Houston watershed. That means rain falling over 87% of the area upstream from Lake Houston has nothing to slow it down.

Lake Houston Gates Not Enough Either

Farther downstream, the City of Houston has been designing new gates for the Lake Houston Dam. They will help lower floods in the Lake Houston Area somewhat. But they won’t help people upstream. And they have run into one problem after another.

For instance, the City could not find any contractors willing to bid on the recommended alternative – building crest gates on the 70-year old spillway. It was just too risky. So, the City is now redesigning the entire project.

Just three years ago, the project was scheduled for completion this summer. But the timetable has been delayed at least another four years.

Time to Reboot the Master Drainage Plan: But How?

So what can we do to refocus attention and gain momentum behind the projects in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan?

In my opinion, we need to see the state take over execution of the plan. There are just too many conflicting interests at the local level.

We need to make one person/entity responsible for executing the plan.
Bob Rehak

The logical choice would be someone at the Texas Water Development Board. It’s assembling a state flood plan that includes the San Jacinto River Basin.

So how do we make that happen? We need to engage our state leaders.

Charles Cunningham, Texas State Representative, District 127, 512-463-0520
Brandon Creighton, Texas State Senator, District 4
Greg Abbott, Texas Governor

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/26/24

2493 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

“Seasonal” Lake Lowering Out. “Active Storm Management” In.

The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Houston have abandoned their automatic “seasonal” lake lowering policy. The seasonal program lowered Lake Conroe automatically to fixed levels during the rainiest parts of the year (April/May and August/September, i.e., the peak of hurricane season).

They have replaced seasonal lowering with a new program called “active storm management” that gives the City and Lake Conroe dam operators more flexibility to respond to actual weather conditions.

Basically, they can keep water levels up when no storms are expected. But they can lower the lake in advance of major rain…any time of the year…by amounts that will keep the lake level as stable as possible and downstream residents as safe as possible.

It’s a compromise that can be summed up in the words “as needed vs. automatic.”

Below, you can see the exact wording of the new protocols. Below that, you can see my simplified summary/interpretation. I also provide a link to the actual contract between the City and SJRA.

Active Storm Management Protocols for Lake Conroe and Lake Houston – 2024

Spring

Beginning April 1 through June 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe from normal pool of 201’ msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for forecasted storm event inflows (to 200.5’ msl). The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between April 1 and June 1.
In the event a major rainfall is forecasted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.0’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 200.0’ msl could occur.

Fall

Beginning August 1 through October 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe if actual lake levels are at normal pool of 201 msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.5’ msl). After Labor Day, storage capacity may be increased an additional six inches (to 200.0’ msl). Diversion volumes requested to reach intended levels will be dependent on the actual lake levels. The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between August 1 and October 1.
If a named storm is predicted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 199.5’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 199.5’ msl could occur.

Protocol – Lake Houston

Year Round
- City of Houston will initiate releases to lower Lake Houston prior to major rainfall events.
- Conservation Pool Elevation is 42.4’ msl.
- Lake Houston level reduced to 41.4’ msl if a 24-hour rainfall forecast of 3 inches or more is expected. within the Lake Houston watershed.
- Under extraordinary weather circumstances, Lake Houston level may be reduced below 41.4’.

Duration

The Protocols above will extend to the end of 2024 but will be reviewed by the stakeholders in October/November of 2024. During the review, the stakeholders will discuss strategies that extend beyond 2024.

Advocacy and Education

All stakeholders will work to support flood mitigation projects and efforts across the upper watershed, including improvement of land use regulations to reduce runoff from new development in counties that contribute flow to Lake Houston.
Because public education regarding completed and ongoing downstream mitigation efforts is critical to generating upstream support for continued active storm management at Lake Conroe, all stakeholders agree to educate their constituents regarding: active storm management protocols being implemented at Lake Houston, completed and ongoing sediment removal projects in the San Jacinto River basin and Lake Houston, and continued progress on the Lake Houston spillway modifications.
Because of its impact on effective active storm management, all stakeholders will support City of Houston and SJRA efforts to amend the Certificate of Adjudication for Lake Conroe to increase the maximum diversion rate.
All stakeholders agree to support efforts to limit further construction of habitable structures around Lake Conroe below elevation 207’ msl.

Important Notes

All water released from Lake Conroe as part of active storm management is being accounted for from the City of Houston’s 2/3 share and reported to TCEQ by the City of Houston. Therefore, all final decisions on diversions are ultimately the City’s and must be communicated to the SJRA in writing. This includes defining active storm management protocols.
All flood mitigation protocols could be limited due to drought conditions.

Rehak’s Summary

Note the words “MAY REQUEST” in the first sentences under Spring and Fall. Lowering is now on an “as needed” basis, not automatic.

Note also the words “RESUME NORMAL RECAPTURING” in the second bullet points under Spring and Fall. Operators will attempt to return the lake to its normal level after the storm threat has passed. The lake will not automatically be kept lower for the rest of the season.

All stakeholders have agreed to review the policy at the end of this year and modify it as necessary.

All stakeholders have also agreed to support mitigation projects including:

Land use regulations that reduce runoff
Education of residents re:
- Active storm management protocols at Lake Houston
- Construction progress of more Lake Houston gates
- Sediment removal projects
An increase in the maximum pre-release rate for Lake Conroe
Limiting future construction around Lake Conroe to a safe level (207 feet above sea level).

The City of Houston must initiate lake lowering IN WRITING.

Water released from Lake Conroe at the City’s request will be reported to the TCEQ.

The City makes all decisions on releases.

Its decisions are final.

The City may redefine “active storm management” protocols, but should consider drought conditions when making decisions.

Decisions to Lower Lake Outside of Spring/Fall Dates

A release during Tropical Storm Alberto in June this year triggered a protest from the Lake Conroe Association because it fell outside the dates indicated above (April/May and August/September).

However, during the April SJRA Board meeting at which Active Storm Management was approved unanimously, the official minutes note that all parties agreed that the City could order the release of water from Lake Conroe at any time – regardless of the season.

For the historical record, here is the actual contract between the City and SJRA re: the operation of Lake Conroe.

For ease of future reference, you can also find the details above on this site’s Lake Lowering page.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/24

2492 Days since Hurricane Harvey