Natural Resources Committee Hears Testimony on HB2068

Update: 4/10/25 – After reading this post, the media liaison for HCFCD emailed me to say, “One correction to your post today – Dr. Petersen testified as a resource on the bill, not against it.” Listen to her testimony at the link provided and you be the judge.

4/9/2025 – The Texas House of Representatives Natural Resources Committee heard testimony today on HB2068. HB2068 attempts to reconstitute the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) into one with wider authority to address flooding that originates outside Harris County.

It would also give the governor authority to appoint a board for the reconstituted district that would replace Harris County Commissioners Court, which has severely politicized flood mitigation much to the detriment of those who live on the periphery of the county.

Three people testified in person AGAINST the bill. But 192 provided written comments FOR the bill. Still, the bill’s fate is unclear tonight.

Three In-Person Testifiers All Against Bill

The committee heard live testimony from three people. All spoke against the bill. They included Stephen Costello, the City’s former Chief Recovery Officer under the late Mayor Sylvester Turner. They also included Tina Petersen, Executive Director of HCFCD and Harris County Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia.

Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia testifying against HB2068 in today’s House Natural Resources Committee hearing.

The essence of Costello’s testimony was “HCFCD is working. Don’t mess with it.” He called the District a good partner for the City of Houston. And that may be true in certain areas.

Petersen and Garcia both bragged about HCFCD’s track record under their leadership, including their ability to take politics out of decision making.

Their testimony stood in stark contrast to brutal confrontations in Harris County Commissioners Court during the last two months. Commissioners, including Garcia, have raked Petersen over the coals. They complained bitterly and repeatedly about budget shortfalls totaling hundreds of millions of dollars that have jeopardized their pet projects.

No one seems to know where the current budget or projects stand. And that has made it impossible for commissioners to prioritize projects for any budget remaining.

Regardless, Petersen touted the county’s failed IT systems as a positive. She estimated it would cost the District $75 million to replace them if Flood Çontrol were a stand-alone entity.

Petersen also failed to mention the four-year slowdown in HCFCD activity.

HCFCD annual spending trend

See the entire testimony here. HB2068 starts about 1:18 into the video.

Strange Failure to Address Author’s Claims

Rep. Dennis Paul, the bill’s author, teed up his bill by explaining how much flooding originated outside the county. However, neither Costello, Petersen, nor Garcia addressed that point.

The failure to address such an obvious point may have been a fatal flaw in their arguments. Any casual observer could see the disconnect.

In fact, 10 of the 22 watersheds in Harris County originate outside the county, including most of the largest ones. Excluding cooperative efforts with people in those areas dooms large parts of Harris County to repetitive flooding. Especially those on the periphery of the county.

watershed map of Harris County
Harris County Watershed map

Electronically Filed Comments Overwhelmingly Support Bill

Many county residents have received virtually no support from HCFCD during Petersen’s tenure because of deliberate diversions of funds to low-income areas. Residents who remain living with high flood risk did not share Petersen’s and Garcia’s appraisals of their own performance, judging by their written comments.

194 people submitted comments electronically. You can read them here. Of the 194, only two were against HB2068. The other 192 strongly favored it. Virtually all of them came from the Lake Houston Area.

However, a number of people from Porter, Conroe, and even as far north as Cleveland also favored the bill. All had been flooded. And all sought the kind of support that an expanded District could provide.

Only one other bill discussed in Natural Resources today received more comments than HB2068. It was a quarrying bill relating to the Lower Colorado River Authority. The rest received only a handful of comments. Most received 0 to 3.

That in itself seems like it would argue for closer scrutiny and debate.

Bill Not Debated in Committee, Fate Up in Air

However, at the end of the testimony, the chairman left the bill “pending in committee.” That could mean they will just let it die. Or it could mean they will debate it and pass it out of committee to the full house for a vote at a future date.

Rep. Paul’s bill does not yet have a companion bill in the Senate.

More news to follow when it becomes available.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/9/2025

2780 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Action Needed: Support HB2068 NOW!

4/8/25 – State Representative Dennis Paul has authored a bill, HB2068, which would transform the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) by reconstituting its management and potentially expanding its geographic scope. Fifteen other state representatives have expressed their support by signing on as “co-authors” of the bill. Most represent parts of the San Jacinto River Basin.

The Texas House of Representatives Natural Resources committee will hold hearings on the bill tomorrow. We need to make sure the bill doesn’t die a quiet death by never making it out of the committee for a vote by the full House. So please write today to express your support.

Why We Need HB2068

Water doesn’t respect political boundaries. Back in 1937 when the legislature created HCFCD, that wasn’t a huge problem. Most of the region’s population lived within Harris County.

But since then, the Houston area has grown to encompass all or parts of seven counties. Having the state’s only flood control district focusing primarily on the area inside Beltway 8 no longer serves the needs of the region.

For instance, in the San Jacinto watershed, an area half again as large as Harris County drains past Kingwood. Yet Kingwood has received only $230 in capital improvement construction projects from HCFCD. Ever.

But during Harvey, Kingwood also had the highest flooding in the county. And it has flooded several times since then.

Meanwhile, eight other watersheds favored by certain Harris County Commissioners have received more than $740 million…just since 2018.

Their formula for allocating funds relies heavily on race and income. The majority of County Commissioners now in control do not even include flood damage or risk in their current formula for prioritizing flood-mitigation projects.

Moreover, HCFCD under the leadership of Harris County Commissioners Court refuses to release comparative flood risk data in their possession.

Plus, certain commissioners have vowed not to allow HCFCD to spend money on projects outside of Harris County, where many of the County’s flooding problems originate.

How HB2068 Could Change That

HB2068 modifies the legislation that originally created HCFCD. The modifications do two basic things. They:

  • Replace Harris County Commissioners Court as managers of HCFCD with a board appointed by the governor. (See Section 1D Page 3.)
  • Allow surrounding counties to join the reconstituted district voluntarily after approval by their Commissioners Courts and voters.

Thus…

HB2068 would enable the reconstituted district to serve all people of the river basin and give them a way to address their flooding issues together.

Flooding does not respect political boundaries. HB2068 bridges those boundaries.

How to Express Your Support

The Natural Resources committee will meet on Wednesday April 9, 2025 to hear testimony on HB2068.

Remember public comments must be submitted before the end of the meeting. To be safe, do it now! And do it here. You are limited to 3000 characters. I suggest something that expresses the key points above under:

  • Why We Need HB2068
  • How HB2068 Could Change That.

They include 2000 characters.

If you are pressed for time, just say, “I support this bill.”

Please DO IT NOW!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/8/2025

2779 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Meritage Drained into City Storm Sewer

4/7/25 – Last Saturday, 2.5 inches of rain turned the Meritage construction site in Atascocita into Lake Meritage. But by this morning, contractors were draining Lake Meritage into a City of Houston storm sewer.

Close examination of aerial photos shows a series of trenches cut under silt fences to let the water drain from the site quickly and bypass the usually slow filtration process that the fences provide.

Contractors had also cut a series of trenches within the site to move trapped stormwater toward the street. And an excavator was scooping muddy stormwater from the beginnings of a detention basin into yet another trench that led toward the exit rows.

Lake Meritage 24 Hours After Storm

Here’s what the site looked like 24 hours ago.

Meritage Phase II (right) on April 6, 2025 24 hours after 2.5 inch rain

Pictures and Videos Taken Another 24 Hours after Storm

Here’s the same area today.

Meritage Phase II (right) 24 hours after photo above.

Where did all the water go?

Interior channels brought the stormwater toward the street…
The excavator (center left) was scooping buckets of water out of the detention basin and dumping it into another channel that led toward the street.
…and a series of shovel-wide trenches let water leak out from under the silt fence.

Much of the muck flowed through a roadside swale to a storm sewer inlet. See below.

10-Second Video by Michelle Chavez, who lives next to the Meritage construction site.

But not all of the muck stayed in the swale. The next ten-second video shows part of it running down the street. There was so much at one point that contractors had to partially block it off.

Another 10-second video showing stormwater entering street. Supplied by passing motorist.
Motorist tracks overflowing silty stormwater down street for another 18 seconds until it flows into City storm sewer inlet.

When I drove by about an hour after the last video was shot, the flow through the street had ended and someone had installed a screen over the inlet that’s clearly not on the video. The screen could make them appear compliant with their Stormwater Pollution Protection Plan.

Silt Fence Repairs Not a Priority

Unfortunately, the contractors did not drain the water invading neighbors’ yards. And repairing damaged silt fences that protected neighbors from the muck was not their highest priority.

Broken silt fence and runoff on neighboring properties as of noon 4/7/25.

To File a Complaint

Practices like those above are usually discouraged by the Harris County Engineer and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

If you’re concerned about runoff that floods your property or potentially clogs your storm drains, please file a complaint.

Harris County Engineer

Phone: 713-274-3600 Monday Through Friday 8 AM to 5 PM

File a complaint online at: https://epermits.harriscountytx.gov/External_Complaints.aspx

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ)

For instructions to file a complaint, visit: https://www.tceq.texas.gov/compliance/complaints.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/7/2025

2778 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Meritage Flooding Atascocita Neighbors

4/6/2025 – After a little more than two inches of rain in a two hour period on 4/5/25, neighbors of the Meritage development in Atascocita bordering Pinehurst Trail Drive began noticing muddy runoff creeping toward their foundations.

Aerial photos taken today show that Meritage and its contractors have made some improvements to control runoff since previous storms. However, the attempts did not protect neighbors’ property during this storm, most likely because of poor execution and slow construction progress.

Failures Illustrate Need to Complete Drainage Work Faster

In Phase I, Meritage still has yet to install drainage and silt fence in areas it clearcut early in 2024.

In Phase II, dirt pushed silt fencing over in places. Muddy runoff invaded neighbors’ yards. Silty water also flooded Pinehurst Trail Drive.

These failures illustrate the need to complete drainage work faster once land is cleared.

Meritage is creating the same issues for its neighbors in Atascocita that the Perry Homes Woodridge Village development did with its neighbors in Kingwood.

Construction, in general, increases flood risk. For neighbors when construction practices are flawed or incomplete. And for larger, surrounding areas when increases in impervious cover may be insufficiently mitigated.

One-Year Rain Overcame Meritage Efforts

Before looking at photos of yesterday’s rain and its aftermath, let’s look at the rainfall totals. The closest Harris County Flood Control District gage is at West Lake Houston Parkway, a little more than a mile north. It received 2.6 inches of rain in a two-hour period on Saturday.

From Harris County Flood Warning System gage on West Lake Houston Parkway at West Fork.

That’s a one- to two-year rain according to NOAA’s precipitation-frequency estimates for this area. See the 2-hour row in Columns 1 and 2 below.

Atlas 14
Atlas 14 Rainfall Probability Statistics for Lake Houston Area

It may have rained intensely yesterday. But the rain did not come close to setting any records. It’s EXPECTED. Statistically, construction companies should PLAN on encountering such rainfalls on virtually EVERY project of this scale.

But yesterday’s experience shows they don’t. At least Meritage and its contractor(s) didn’t.

Attempts to Control Drainage Fall Short

Meritage broke this project up into two phases on opposite sides of Pinehurst Trail Drive.

  • Contractors finished clearing Phase I on the west by the end of January 2024.
  • They finished clearing Phase II on the east by early 2025.

Both sides flooded already earlier this year on February 11. The West Lake Houston Parkway gage received less than a 1-year rain that time. A public outcry caused Meritage to step up its efforts to control runoff. And they did. Somewhat.

They added more silt fencing, staked out wattle rolls to help filter runoff, and built berms in places to help protect neighbors. They also placed sand bags next to storm sewer entrances to help stop sediment before it escaped into storm sewers.

But photos and video taken after yesterday’s rain also show:

  • In Phase I:
    • Severe erosion
    • Storm sewers and drainage pipes stacked and waiting for installation
    • No silt fencing protecting wetlands
    • No paving, no visible progress toward completion in months.
  • In Phase II:
    • Dirt pushed up against silt fences, knocking them over
    • Silty stormwater in neighbor’s yards near the damaged silt fence
    • Ponding water throughout the site
    • Runoff closing off half of Pinehurst Trail Drive.

See below.

Video and Photos From Day of Storm

A reader sent me these two clips. The first shows street flooding caused by runoff from Phase II. The second shows flooding in the Phase II site itself.

Pinehurst Trail Drive on 4/5/25 Near Meritage Phase II construction site. (13 seconds).
Meritage site on 4/5/25 after a one-year rain. (22 seconds).

A neighbor, James Montgomery, whose yard flooded badly sent me these shots.

Silty water approaching pool and house from Meritage site beyond fence.
Hours later, his yard was still flooded with silty water from construction site.

Aerial Photos Taken 24 Hours Later

Here’s how homes along the northern property line of Phase II looked around noon on Sunday.

Note damaged silt fence.
Runoff from Phase II still creeping toward neighbors’ homes 24 hours after rainfall.
Ponding water in Phase II on right overflowing into swale and heading toward storm sewer (top center).
Note ponding water along entire silt fence on right. A well-constructed berm could have helped here.
Looking E at entire Phase II of the Meritage site. Despite months of ideal construction weather since last major rain in February, runoff is still not controlled.
Phase I shot shows grass around the detention basin finally taking hold. But drainage work is still far from complete more than a year after clearing.
More drainage materials stacked up near western edge of Phase I. Note lack of silt fence and silty runoff escaping into wetlands that used to occupy a much larger part of Phase I.
Entire site almost 1.5 years into development. Phase I in foreground. Phase II in upper left. Lake Houston at top of frame.

Personally, I hoped for more – especially from a company whose advertising slogan includes the words “Built. Better.” Construction opens a window of vulnerability to flooding. Companies should do everything they can to complete drainage work as fast as they can to close that window.

For More Information

Meritage builds homes in 11 states. Their website also shows they build homes in 34 communities in the Houston area alone. The posts below contain photos of and background materials about the development.

2/13/25 Meritage Site Overflows Despite Detention Basin

12/23/24 Meritage Finishes Clearing 40 Acres between Pinehurst and Kings River

10/27/24 – Concerns About Fill Height in New Atascocita Development

3/11/24 – New Kings River Development Gets a Buzz Cut

2/13/24 – Meritage Begins Clearing 40 Acres for 210 Homes, Many Over Wetlands

2/26/24 – New Kings River Development Drainage Analysis, Plans Raise Questions

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/6/25

2777 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

FEMA Eliminating Important BRIC Grants

4/5/2025 – On 4/4/25, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced the termination of BRIC grants.

The Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) Grant Program encouraged better building practices. The grants also funded mitigation projects that reduced future flood damage.

Through its project scoring matrix, BRIC grants incentivized the adoption of building codes that strengthened infrastructure and buildings against natural disasters. The codes address issues, such as elevation above floodplains and types of foundations, that help improve safety and prevent future damage.

Photo Courtesy of Denise Faulkner

Program Linked to Building Codes that Reduced Future Damage

To maximize a project’s “score” during competitive evaluation, states had to adopt, at a minimum, the International Building Code (IBC) and International Residential Code (IRC) as published by the International Code Council (ICC). ICC updates the codes annually.

According to Alan Black, vice president of Quiddity Engineering in Houston, “BRIC applications receive 20 points (out of a possible 100) if the State has adopted the 2018 version (or later) of both IBC and IRC.”

However, Black also points out that Texas currently only mandates the 2012 codes as a minimum, even though municipalities may adopt higher standards. The 2012 code put many Texas applications at a competitive disadvantage.

Black says, “Unincorporated areas by state law are prohibited from adopting their own building codes, and as such, applications from these areas receive 0 out of 20 points.”

Positive Payback for Higher Building Codes

Regardless, encouraging adoption of higher building standards in densely populated flood-prone areas is positive.

John Blount, a former Harris County Engineer, studied how areas in Harris County that had and hadn’t adopted a 2009 building code update handled Hurricane Harvey.

The study found 20 times less damage in subdivisions using the newer, more stringent building codes.

Even more impressive, Blount found that not one home built to the higher standards suffered substantial damage during Harvey.

A national study published by FEMA in 2020 demonstrated the value of adopting hazard-resistant building codes. They can provide an 11-to-1 return by reducing losses and helping communities get back on their feet faster after disasters.

That’s right. Every $1 spent on mitigation in new-building-code construction saves $11 in disaster repair and recovery costs.

Black, also a former acting director of Harris County Flood Control, said that 11:1 sounded a bit high in his experience. He used a rule of thumb of 4:1 for this area.

Easily Correctable Rules May Have Doomed Entire Program

Regardless, yesterday, Kristi Noem, Secretary of Homeland Security (FEMA’s parent department), announced she was “eliminating the wasteful, politicized grant program” started during President Trump’s first term.

A FEMA spokesperson said, “The BRIC Program was yet another example of a wasteful and ineffective FEMA program. It was more concerned with political agendas than helping Americans affected by natural disasters.”

Noem is canceling all BRIC applications from 2020 to 2023 and clawing back any unspent money, according to her press release. It said, “Approximately $882 million of funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will be returned to the U.S. Treasury or reapportioned by Congress in the next fiscal year.”

Noem said she is doing this to “return FEMA to its core mission of helping Americans recover from natural disasters.”

An analogy: It feels as if she would rather reconstruct a plane after it crashed than help land it safely.

Third-party press reports shed a bit more light. Grist reported a FEMA spokesperson as saying that FEMA “was more concerned with climate change than helping Americans affected by natural disasters.” Grist also pointed out that BRIC generally shouldered 75 percent of the cost of a given resilience project, and up to 90 percent of the cost of projects in disadvantaged communities.

Scientific American reported that “President Joe Biden ordered the program to address climate change and spend 40 percent of its grant money on projects that help communities with high rates of poverty, unemployment and environmental exposure.”

“The program’s emphasis on equity is what may have marked it for demolition,” concluded Grist.

Local Impact

The cancellation of BRIC grants will reportedly crush projects underway, but not yet completed. FEMA says it is clawing back all unspent money, even if a project has already started.

The House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure released a report yesterday detailing how much each state would be affected by the loss of BRIC funding. Texas will lose $510,667,172, second only to California.

A FEMA spreadsheet shows that Harris County and the Harris County Flood Control District had applied for 10 BRIC grants:

Forest Shadows Subdivision Flood Mitigation BRIC
Bear Creek Village Subdivision Flood Mitigation BRIC
Project Scoping for Cypress Creek Watershed Study – Harris County Flood Control District, TX
Harris County TX Greens Bayou Mid-Reach Channel Conveyance Improvements – Segment 1 FY2022 BRIC
BRIC 2020 Buyout
Project Scoping for Cole Creek Stormwater Detention Basin Preliminary Engineering Report “ HCFCD, TX
South Post Oak Detention Basin C547-00-00 & Channel Improvement C147-00-00 in Harris Co, TX BRIC
Little Cedar Bayou Flood Risk Reduction Project Scoping – Harris County Flood Control District, TX
Cloverleaf Area Drainage Improvements – Phase 2 – Harris County Flood Control District, TX
Cypress Trace Stormwater Detention Basin C&CB Project Scoping“ Harris County Flood Control District

It’s not immediately clear how the BRIC decision will affect the fate of those projects. FEMA may have rejected some projects previously. And some, if cancelled, may have alternative sources of funding available.

Editorial Comment

If Noem felt BRIC did not meet the Administration’s objectives, it seems she could have easily modified the program rather than killing it.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/5/25

2776 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

New Kingwood-Sized Development Upstream from Kingwood

4/4/25 – A Kingwood-sized development just upstream from the I-69 Bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork is half built out and growing quickly thanks to the construction of Townsen Blvd. which began recently in Montgomery County.

The area is bounded by the Grand Parkway, Spring Creek, and the San Jacinto West Fork. It lies almost entirely within floodways and floodplains. And it’s pockmarked by wetlands. A respected hydrologist told me that further development in that area would be “like aiming a fire hose at Kingwood and Humble.”

Townsen construction will open up many thousands of acres to new development. That has the potential to increase flood risk if newly developing areas receive insufficient mitigation. And that has many people asking questions.

Location and Size

Let’s begin by looking at maps that put the area and plans for it in perspective.

Both outlined areas include approximately 13,000 acres. Kingwood on right. SH99 is yellow line running left to right across top of frame. I-69 runs N to S between red outlines.

Construction of a major new thoroughfare in the area on the left will open up thousands of remaining acres to development. It’s called Townsen Blvd and will be four divided lanes.

Construction on the first segment began recently. And Montgomery County voters will decide whether to fund the next segment in a bond election on Saturday, May 3, 2025.

Townsen Blvd. is labeled 01 in this screen capture. Purple section is already under construction. Green section proposed next phase as part of MoCo’s 2025 Road Bond.

The green section is a major link in bigger plans that could eventually take the road across Spring Creek to hook up with Townsen Boulevard in Humble. Right now, plans show that section terminating at Rayford Road. But what about plans beyond that? The map below from MoCo’s 2021 transportation plan shows Townsen eventually pushing through to Spring Creek.

Townsen Blvd. from 2021 MoCo transportation plan is long, dotted line running through center of frame and terminating at County line.

In 2022, I wrote about a related proposal to build a bridge across Spring Creek that would connect to Townsen Blvd. in Humble on the Harris County side of the creek.

Map shown on Page 25 of Army Corps Permit Application for the bridge across Spring Creek. Deadline for an application extension expires next year.

Construction Already Starting at North End

Recently, work on the first portion of MoCo’s Townsen Boulevard started near SH99 (Grand Parkway). Photos below show contractors have only finished small segments of the first section so far. But new subdivisions and schools are already springing up adjacent to those sections and creating a stir that has area residents buzzing. See representative photos below.

Looking S from over SH99 at clearing that will become Townsen Blvd.
Reverse angle. Looking N toward SH99 at clearing for Townsen Blvd. Note new school under construction in top left. Intersecting street on left is Waterbend Cove.
Looking S along another portion of Townsen Blvd. near Lexington Blvd. intersection in distance.
Looking back N across Lexington toward SH99 shows one of many new neighborhoods under construction.
Same approximate location, but looking 90 degrees west shows lots for sale, but not yet built on.
New school will host the children of families who buy into this area.
Ground level view shows how high Townsen is being built up.
Raising the road will keep it passable during heavy storms. Note wetlands on far side.

Wetlands and Floodplains in Abundance

FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer shows that floodplains cover almost all of the area where the first two legs of Townsen Blvd. will be built. The map below is so busy that for reference, I had to superimpose a bright red line where Townsen will go.

Approximate location of Townsen Blvd shown in red. FEMA base layer did not have new street marked yet. Striped area = floodway. Aqua = 100-year floodplain. Brown = 500-year.

This map will likely get worse. It is based on data acquired after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Experts say the floodplains and floodway will expand 50-100% when FEMA updates the map with new Atlas-14 data developed after Harvey.

But the quantity of wetlands in this area represent an even bigger problem. See the map below from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory.

#1 and #2 mark intersections of Waterbed Cove and Lexington Blvd with Townsen Blvd. See photos above.

Wetlands are nature’s sponges. Paving them over increases runoff and the risk of downstream flooding. The developers seem to be constructing a series of “lakes” around which they’re building homes. Such lakes are really detention basins in disguise. But because of the old flood maps, uncertainty remains. Will they offer sufficient mitigation?

Is Bridge a Real Possibility?

Neighbors want to know more about impacts of the road. That will depend on how far south Townsen Blvd. goes and whether a bridge across Spring Creek is a real possibility.

I asked several officials what the probability of such a bridge is.

Jason Stuebe, Humble City Manager, said, “Honestly, I don’t have much information to share. The developer completed the portion of the roadway within Humble, stopped at the city limits and that’s about the last we heard from them.”

Eric Heppen, Harris County Precinct 3’s head engineer, said, “We heard a few … rumors but nothing formally.  To be fair, I hear rumors about it once a year at this point. Harris County has not been contacted about it and we have at least some of the jurisdictional rights over the creek. We reminded Montgomery County recently that we cannot do a joint project with them unless they adopt current Harris County Drainage Criteria.”

More impact data to follow as I learn more details.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/25

2775 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

 

CSU Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season

4/3/2025 – Colorado State University (CSU) researchers issued their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season today for the Atlantic basin. Forecasters expect the season to be above average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

The 30-year average is for 14.4 for named storms, 7.2 for hurricanes, and 3.2 for major hurricanes. 

Landfall Location Probabilities and Other Predictions

Researchers at CSU also predicted the probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall:

  • Anywhere along the U.S. coastline
  • Along the East Coast, including the Florida Panhandle
  • Anywhere along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Tx.

They predict a:

  • 51% chance for any coast (up from a 140-year average of 43%)
  • 26% chance for the East Coast (up from a 140-year average of 21%)
  • 33% chance for the Gulf Coast (up from a 140 year average of 27%)

They also believe Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2025 will be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages. 

Value of Long-Range Forecasts

People frequently ask CSU researchers what the value is of such long-range forecasts? Aside from people’s curiosity, they point out that it is possible to make seasonal forecasts with greater accuracy than climatology.

From CSU Extended-Range Forecast for 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Accuracy of Long-Range Predictions

The models CSU uses sometimes fail, but their “hindcasts” show that their predictions correlate highly with actual storm activity. In the last 10 years, using “correlation” as a skill metric, CSU’s April forecasts have a .59 coefficient of correlation.

A correlation coefficient of 0.59 indicates a moderate to strong positive relationship between two variables.

In general, statisticians consider:

  • 0.1 to 0.3: Weak
  • 0.3 to 0.5: Moderate
  • 0.5 to 0.7: Moderate to strong
  • 0.7 to 1.0: Strong

CSU’s June forecasts have a .69 coefficient of correlation and their August forecasts rate a .84.

So, statistically speaking, they are very successful. And that’s why they are so well respected in the industry.

Chances of Texans Getting Hit

By the way, they believe that Texas residents have a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a major hurricane landfall this season. Those chances increase to 44% for a hurricane and 70% for a named storm.

CSU looks at multiple models as well as many analog factors, such as sea surface temperatures, global winds, La Niña, El Niño, and more. Budding meteorologists can review their thinking by reading the full 41-page report here.

It’s never too early to start preparing for hurricane season. A friend contacted me today about portable electrical power packs he just purchased. He’s also buying solar panels to recharge them. The memory of power outages during Beryl still has him smarting.

To help get ready for hurricane season, see the Preparedness Tab on my Links Page.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2025

2774 Days since Hurricane Harvey










Despite Funding Shortfalls, HCFCD Still Claims No Projects Will Be Cancelled

4/2/2025 – Despite massive funding shortfalls associated with the 2018 Flood Bond that have become the talk of Commissioner’s Court, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) still claims no projects will be cancelled – even after it cancelled several. See the screen capture below taken this afternoon.

From FAQs on HCFCD Website as of 4PM 4/2/25

That page has been up since at least 2022. An oversight? The County has known for years that it didn’t have enough money to complete bond projects. But instead of fessing up, they prioritized projects in Rodney Ellis’ precinct and delayed the day of reckoning…until they ran out of money for, you guessed it, Ellis’ projects.

HCFCD also cleverly called cancelled projects “completed”…because it decided not to pursue them anymore. Welcome to a world of linguistic legerdemain.

Is it intentional? You be the judge. Clearly, the pretense has persisted for years.

A History of Warnings and Missteps

2021

On 3/9/2021, David Berry, then the County’s Budget Management Director, asserted in a Commissioners’ Court meeting that the County had a shortfall of approximately $900 million to $1.35 billion needed to complete projects in the Flood Bond.

In December that year, Berry, by then the County Administrator, proposed eliminating partner funding as a factor in prioritizing bond projects. Said another way, partners who made projects possible would not see projects accelerated.

Only one problem: we expected partners to fund 43% of all flood bond projects. Basically, Berry eliminated the main incentive for MUDs and municipalities to bring money to the table.

But it pushed so-called “equity” projects to the front of the line.

2022

HCFCD updated its Equity Prioritization Framework, a controversial policy for ranking potential flood mitigation projects. It excluded flood damage from the ranking of projects. Instead, the policy gave preference to socially vulnerable areas – as defined by the CDC –regardless of flood damage.

Only a portion of potential funding partners have similar priorities. This further limited partner-funding potential.

2023

In June 2023, while speaking to a public meeting of the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Scott Elmer, the Flood Control District’s Chief Partnership and Programs Officer, predicted that some projects in the 2018 flood bond likely would not get done because of a funding gap.

In July 2023, Harris County put 37 of 93 subdivision drainage projects associated with the 2018 Flood Bond “on hold” because it lacked funding, often from shortfalls in expected partner contributions.

In December 2023, Jesal Shah PE, the Chief Project Delivery Officer for HCFCD, discussed the impact of inflation on the bond program with the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force. He said he was re-evaluating all bond projects in an attempt to “minimize” changes.

2024

HCFCD stopped listing active construction projects on its website. The frequency of flood bond updates fell from monthly to annually. Even county commissioners were flying blind.

The July 2024 flood-bond update alluded to 33 projects that had “uncertainty about whether current funding levels are sufficient to take the associated projects through construction.”

2025

On 2/6/25, fireworks erupted in Harris County Commissioners Court today over the 2018 Flood Bond and Subdivision Drainage shortfalls. It was a rare display of bi-partisan outrage. All four commissioners and the county judge made it clear that the County didn’t have enough money to deliver flood-mitigation projects promised in the bond. Commissioners used words like, “abysmal failure,” “major crisis,” and “utter dismay.”

At the 2/27/25 Commissioners Court meeting, Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis admitted, “I know there’s not enough money to do all the projects we talked about and everybody else knows it. I’m just crazy enough to say it in public.”

And in their 3/27/25 meeting, Harris County Commissioners wrestled for more than an hour with a massive, $100-million budget shortfall for subdivision drainage improvements.

Why Claim No Projects Will Be Cancelled?

Despite all that, HCFCD still – to this day – makes the “no-cancellation” claim on its website. I believe they’re trying to postpone a day of reckoning with verbal trickery.

HCFCD’s July 2024 flood-bond update said that it marked several projects “complete” – because they saw no benefit in completing them!

That sounds a lot like cancellation to me. The choice of words indicates a desperate desire to conceal a truth. It’s Orwellian “doublespeak” at its finest!

Many more projects await that same fate. Unless you remain alert!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/25

2773 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Harris County Commissioners Wrestle with $100 Million Drainage Funding Shortfall

4/1/25 – In their 3/27/25 meeting, Harris County Commissioners wrestled for more than an hour with a massive, $100 million drainage funding shortfall. But $100 million may not come close to solving drainage problems in the county’s subdivisions.

Also very worrying, Commissioners have had a hard time getting data that will tell them exactly where they stand financially and let them prioritize remaining projects.

See video here, in Departments Part 2 of 2, beginning at 6:31 PM or 6:01 on the scroll bar.

As a result, Commissioners ordered the Flood Control District and Engineering Department to return to Commissioners Court on May 8, 2025 with detailed lists of projects and their Equity Prioritization Index Scores.

Insiders at the County Courthouse say it would be too politically explosive to cancel any projects promised to voters in the 2018 Flood Bond. So, they are likely to just put projects in more affluent areas on indefinite hold, exposing them to higher flood risk for years.

Another Rambling, Disjointed Debate

Emotions got heated during the hour-long discussion as each commissioner made a case for why projects in his/her precinct should not be cut.

Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey P.E. talked about the larger percentage of unincorporated Harris County he must support compared to other precincts. He also pointed out that he already used $100 million from his own budget to push through needed subdivision drainage projects.

And Ramsey complained about problems with the equity formula used by Flood Control and Engineering to prioritize projects. Specifically, he mentioned Barrett Station, a low-income area in Precinct 3 that was deprived of funding.

Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis and Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia focused on “historical discrimination,” the County’s Equity Prioritization Index, and the highly populated areas they serve compared to outlying areas.

Precinct 4 Commissioner Leslie Briones literally talked about “getting hosed.” Her precinct received far less funding than others.

The discussion had all the charm of wolves crowding around a campfire, baring their teeth to see who will get the last scraps of meat.

Data Disaster Also At Core of Discussion

A shortage of reliable, consolidated data about subdivision drainage projects has frustrated commissioners as they seek to debate the priority of projects.

One of the motions considered during the debate on Item 28 last Thursday was integrating the county’s various financial systems. Currently, data about these projects exists on at least three different software platforms according to another county insider.

Subdivision Drainage Projects a Political Football

Voters approved a group of subdivision drainage projects totaling a little more than $425 million as part of the 2018 Flood Bond. Out of that total, the county designated $111 million in local matching funds to attract $315 million in partner funding from local municipalities.

However, over time the Subdivision Drainage Improvement costs escalated to an estimated $832 million due to inflation and the addition of projects. At the same time, not all the partnership funds materialized as expected.

So the county created a Flood Resilience Trust with surplus Harris County Toll Road (HCTRA) funds. The County also reallocated some funds from the 2015 Road Bond.

Because using Road Bond and HCTRA funding required link to transportation, at some point, Commissioners moved subdivision drainage projects from Flood Control to Engineering.

But now, some of the projects are moving back to Flood Control, because Flood Control may be able to cancel some of its projects, freeing up some money on that side of the fence. Can you say “Shell Game”?

The County Administrator’s Office compiled this 11-page outline showing how projects were moved, added, deleted or had their funding sources change over time and why. Reading it will also help you understand why Commissioners are demanding to know how much money they have to work with.

No commissioner wants to find a pet project at the end of the line when the money runs out.

Motions Approved

After an hour of discussion, Commissioners voted on and approved four motions designed to give them greater insight into where each of the subdivision drainage projects stands. In summary, the motions direct:

  1. All relevant departments to fill the previously identified funding gap of approximately $99 million for Subdivision Drainage projects out of a group of 57 projects (identified in 2023) with a Prioritization Framework rating of 7.4 or higher using:
    • $50,000,000 from the Flood Control District of 2018 Flood Bond Program funds originally allocated as matching funds for the home buyout program that are no longer needed;
    • $30,000,000 from the Flood Control District of 2018 Flood Bond Program funds originally allocated for major maintenance projects that have alternative funding sources identified;
    • $19,000,000 from interest earned on METRO fund cash balance; and
    • $14,200,000 of Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act (GOMESA) grant funds for projects that meet the eligible use requirements.
  2. The County Administrator to work with all relevant departments to develop any longer-term options and recommendations that may be needed regarding the funding and management of the 2018 Flood Bond Program and the Subdivision Drainage Program. Target date: May 8, 2025.
  3. All relevant departments to develop a standard reporting framework for the Subdivision Drainage Program and the 2018 Flood Bond Program to ensure Commissioners Court can easily see at a minimum:
    • Status of each project
    • Expected time to completion
    • How cost has changed over time
    • Whether there was a change in scope
    • Sources of funding
  4. The County Administrator and Universal Services to improve the county’s electronic financial reporting by consolidating several software systems into one.

For More Information

For more information about Item 28 on the March 27, 2025 Commissioners Court Agenda, you can view the video. Click on Departments 2 or 2 and scroll forward to approximately 6:01 of the video. The discussion lasts an hour. The clock superimposed over the frame (as opposed to the scroll bar), will read 6:31 PM.

Here is an AI-based transcript of the discussion from a private service that I subscribe to. Warning: it has 98% accuracy, higher than county’s transcript which sometimes omits whole sections of the dialog. If something sounds off, check it against the video.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/1/25

2772 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Wastelands to Wetlands, Part III: Turning Ideas into Action

3/31/25 – In the first two parts of this “Wastelands to Wetlands” series, I presented a vision for restoration of the San Jacinto West Fork and listed all the various parties who have an interest in the effort and could help. But how do you coordinate them? Who would take responsibility/authority for ensuring restoration? And how would you measure their success? That is the focus of this post.

My purpose is to start a dialogue that gets people moving in the direction of a solution. I don’t claim to have all the answers. Nor do I believe that this is the only way to get to a solution.

Need for Leader to Guide Restoration

Right now, no group or leader exists for such an effort. But restoration will never happen unless someone takes the initiative (or has the responsibility) to turn ideas into action.

In business, I learned that if you put two people in charge of a project, no one is in charge. Right now, we have more than a dozen groups theoretically in charge of permitting various aspects of restoration. But none is in charge of oversight and coordination. That’s a problem.

Do We Use Existing Group or Start New One?

Several contenders for the job already exist. But do they have the knowledge, skills, funding and desire to take on the additional work?

The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) theoretically has the authority. And they have established a flood management division. But do they have the desire to take on the environmental restoration job? They architected a massive Master Drainage Plan for the entire river basin. But after more than four years, they have yet to implement one recommendation from it. SJRA seems focused on capturing water in Lake Conroe and selling it.

Further downstream, the Coastal Water Authority has the responsibility for managing Lake Houston. But no one has given them responsibility for fixing upstream issues between the two lakes that pollute their water.

Unless one of these two groups accepts restoration as a mission and dedicates the resources to achieving it, we need to create another authority responsible for the area between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston – a West Fork Restoration Authority.

Mission Defined

Their mission: turn wastelands into wetlands. How? 1) Restore abandoned mines using a combination of grants and matching funds dedicated to the effort by the state legislature. 2) Monitor active mines to ensure they comply with their abandonment plans when the time comes. 3) Coordinate the efforts of all affected parties to ensure they are additive and contribute to the long-range plan over time.

Creating such an authority would require action by the state legislature in 2027. It’s too late for this session.

Board Structure

A board appointed by the governor and affected parties, such as the City of Houston, Montgomery County, the mining industry, and residents, could manage the West Fork Restoration Authority.

Suggested Success Metrics

How would they measure success? Here’s a list of major needs, metrics, and milestones.

  • A) Completion of business plan
  • B) Acquisition of staff
  • C) Completion of engineering study
  • D) Design of solution and component parts
  • E) Costs estimates
  • F) Publication of long-term plan with stages/tasks outlined
  • G) Successful grant applications, funds raised
  • H) Permits obtained
  • I) Acres revegetated
  • J) Linear feet of trails installed
  • K) Reduction of erosion
  • L) Water-quality improvements
  • M) Publication of quarterly and annual progress reports
  • N) Creation of case study that communicates knowledge gained to guide similar efforts elsewhere

Time Limited

The State’s Sunset Commission would review the Restoration Authority at regular intervals (currently 12 years) and dissolve it after completion of its job or for lack of progress.

Need

Do we need such an Authority? In my opinion, YES! The economic future of the region depends on eliminating the blight that contributes to flooding. The West Fork has:

  • Approximately 20 square miles of sand mines, many abandoned, between Lake Houston and I-45
  • Become completely blocked in some areas
  • Broken through the dikes of at least five sand mines.

The American Rivers organization named the West Fork one of the most endangered rivers in America.

And we still have not completed a $200 million dredging program that began in 2018.

Back in 2019, I posted 72 pictures that showed the extent of sand mining on the West Fork. Sadly, not much has changed since then. In fact, things have gotten worse.

West Fork Sand-Mining Problems
Hallett Mine on West Fork. Picture taken March 19, 2025. Pit in foreground has been captured by river, cutting off normal channel to right.

We need the area’s elected leaders to work together to restore the West Fork as mines like the one above play out and the miners move on to other areas.

We need their help in turning Wastelands into Wetlands. Otherwise, the next generation will be stuck with the situation below.

New Sand Mining BMPs needed to offset sediment pollution.
Confluence of Spring Creek (left) and West Fork (right) with its 20 square miles of sand mines. Photo taken in January 2025

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/31/25

2771 Days since Hurricane Harvey