Two Top Geologists Suggest Mouth Bar Dredging Strategy

Two world-class geologists, Tim Garfield and R.D. Kissling, both of whom live in the Lake Houston Area, agreed (at ReduceFlooding.com’s request) to offer their opinions on what would be the best strategy for dredging near the San Jacinto West Fork Mouth Bar. Garfield and Kissling helped bring mouth bar issues to the attention of the public after Harvey. Both have followed various dredging programs in that area closely ever since.

Looking west across the mouth bar on 9/11/2020 while hovering over Kings Point. Suspended sediment shows that main current of river is between remainder of the above-water portion of the mouth bar and Atascocita Point on the upper left. Photo taken 9/11/2020.

History

The Army Corps of Engineers dredged from River Grove Park to Kings Harbor in 2018 and 2019, removing approximately 1.8 million cubic yards. After a contentious battle with the City, the Corps then agreed to remove another 500,000 cubic yards south of the Mouth Bar in the Spring and Summer of 2019. This year, the City of Houston started removing the portion of the mouth bar that remained above water; they are still working on it (see above). Recently, FEMA agreed to remove another million cubic yards. And waiting in the wings is another $30 million that can be applied to additional dredging. State Representative Dan Huberty secured that money in the last legislature.

However, none of the various parties involved has volunteered to share their thinking about objectives and strategies behind mouth bar dredging alternatives. That’s why I asked Garfield and Kissling to offer their thoughts on what constituted the best strategy. Both worked for one of the world’s largest oil companies at the very highest levels.

Old Bathymetric Maps No Longer Valid

The first thing they realized was that they didn’t have enough data to make informed recommendations. The last published bathymetric maps were based on surveys taken before Imelda and before the Corps’ mouth-bar dredging.

Gathering Own Data

So Garfield and Kissling gathered their own data – with sonic depth finders, GPS, and a 14-foot pole with depth markings. They started upstream of the mouth bar, where the Army Corps finished its Emergency West Fork Dredging program near Kings Harbor. And they worked their way downstream beyond FM1960 to the railroad bridge.

Scope of Garfield/Kissling survey

Found Underwater Plateau 20′ High and 3 Miles Long

They found an underwater wall approximately 20′ high where the Corps stopped its first dredging program near Kings Harbor. It extended downstream more than 3 miles.

Cross section of river channel shows a rise of almost 20 feet wall on the upstream side of the mouth bar near Kings Harbor and an even greater drop near FM1960. The result: a 3-mile long underwater plateau.

That wall, they say, “…constitutes a significant and abrupt hydraulic barrier that will likely exacerbate flooding and sedimentation.”

That wall is the leading edge of a 3-mile-long underwater plateau.

Note abrupt drop north of FM1960 Causeway.

Recommend Following Original Channel

The cross-section graph of the river bed above represents the deepest part of the river. On either side of that centerline, the riverbed rises to two or three feet below the surface of the water. The centerline closely follows the paleo (original) channel of the river before the Lake Houston dam was built.

Garfield and Kissling recommend dredging along the deepest path (see below). They reason that would save money.

Recommended and alternate routes identified by Garfield and Kissling that take advantage of deeper water.

“This might not only be the most beneficial dredging plan, but could also be the most cost effective as it leverages the paleo-channel as much as possible,” they say. “It harnesses nature, rather than fighting it.”

The geologists also identified a second possible route farther to the east but still south of the above-water portion of the stream mouth bar (labeled SMB in diagram above).

They caution that hydraulic modeling should be used to decide the best dredging plan. Political considerations drove initial mouth bar dredging rather than data. The Corps was authorized only to dredge an amount that it believed Harvey deposited. “We should be past the politics at this point and looking to get the most bang for our bucks,” say the geologists.

Whichever strategy the City settles on, Garfield and Kissling recommend excavating a channel, not a broad area, to get the best results for the dollars invested.

Objective: Re-establish Full Channel From Kings Harbor to Lake Houston

“This new channel should be no shallower, nor narrower than the upstream dredged channel at its end dredge location (450’ wide x 26’ deep),” say the geologists.

As a minimum, the future dredging plan should re-establish a continuous and down-stream deepening channel volume from where the Corps channel dredging ended to the 1960 bridge.


Tim Garfield and RD Kissling

This will help reduce sediment build up upstream from the plateau. By accelerating water through the blockage, it will let the river carry sediment farther out into the deeper portion of the lake. It will also reduce water backup that contributes to flooding.

Read Garfield and Kissling’s full study, Evaluating West Lake Houston Bathymetry, Dredging Status and Recommendations.

Recommendations Consistent With City’s Preliminary Findings

The City has been methodically surveying Lake Houston and is in the process of developing its own maps, objectives and strategies. Stephen Costello, the City’s flood czar said they are not finished with that effort yet. However, he also said that the preliminary information they obtained suggested that a route south of the mouth bar might be the most effective.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/25/2020 with thanks to Tim Garfield and RD Kissling

1123 Days after Hurricane Harvey

TWDB Advances 4 of 5 SJRA Grant Applications for Flood Infrastructure Funding

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) has advanced four of five San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) abridged grant applications to the next round for consideration. TWDB named them as priorities for the 2020 Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) cycle. That advances SJRA one step closer to funding for the projects. 

SJRA Now Invited to Submit Full Applications


With these rankings, SJRA will now submit full grant applications for four projects for approval. In the two-stage process, applicants first submit an abridged application. TWDB then prioritizes them within the overall available funding capacity. 

Senate Bill 7 last year made the Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) possible. Senator Brandon Creighton sponsored it. The Legislature passed it and Texas voters approved it through a constitutional amendment. FIF provides financial assistance in the form of loans and grants for flood control, flood mitigation, and drainage projects. 

Why SJRA Seeks Grants, Partnerships

As with most Texas river authorities, SJRA is not a taxing entity, therefore these large-scale flood mitigation projects require regional and local partnerships as well as grant funding.

“Hundreds of abridged applications were submitted by entities—cities, counties, other political subdivisions—as part of this competitive process. We are very proud SJRA was selected to move ahead in the approval process on four of our five abridged grant applications,” said Chuck Gilman, SJRA Director of Water Resources and Flood Management. “The next step is to find local partners who, along with SJRA, will commit to the local-match funding and in-kind services. These large-scale, impactful projects come with a very high price tag. It will take a regional approach with various funding commitments to see these projects through to completion. The FIF funding is an essential piece of that process.”

Flood Infrastructure Fund Criteria

According to Flood Infrastructure Fund criteria, eligible projects must fall under one of four categories:

  1. Flood Protection Planning for Watersheds
  2. Planning, Acquisition, and Design, Construction/Rehabilitation
  3. Federal Award Matching Funds
  4. Measures Immediately Effective in Protecting Life and Property

TWDB will review the full grant applications and make final selections for grant and loan funding later this year. 

SJRA

Proposed Projects Advancing to Next Round


Upper San Jacinto River Basin Regional Sedimentation Study 

Would identify and create a plan for implementing potential sedimentation solutions in the Upper San Jacinto River Basin (Lake Houston watershed). It would evaluate the input, output, and storage of sediment for the entire basin as well as for sub-watersheds.  

LMI River Bend Sand Mine on San Jacinto West Fork exposes more than 500 acres of sand to floodwaters. Altogether, sand mines expose approximately 20 square miles of sand along the West Fork to floodwaters in a 20 mile stretch between I-45 and US59.
Spring Creek Watershed Flood Control Dams Conceptual Engineering Feasibility Study 

Would perform a conceptual engineering feasibility study of two potential dam/reservoir locations within the Spring Creek watershed. This is the next phase of the Spring Creek Siting Study, which is currently being completed as part of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan. Harris County Flood Control District leads the Master Drainage Plan effort. SJRA and other regional partners support it.

Lake Conroe – Lake Houston Joint Reservoir Operations Study 

Would develop a joint reservoir operations and communications strategy for Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. 
The City of Houston is currently studying new tainter gates for the Lake Houston dam. They could greatly increase the controlled release capacity. 

The main goal of the plan: to determine the most efficient and safe operation of the two reservoirs in series. The study would evaluate multiple individual components of a joint operational strategy. 

It will evaluate:

  • Operational synergy between the two reservoirs
  • Joint notification and communications protocols
  • Pre-release
  • Impacts on water supply
  • Use of forecasting tools.

This project will benefit both water supply and flood mitigation in the region.

Flood Early Warning System for San Jacinto County 

Would provide for installation of rain and river/stream gages at three locations identified as critical by San Jacinto County to provide early warning information to the county during storm events.  

Locations:

  • Winters Bayou at State Highway 150
  • East Fork San Jacinto River at FM 945
  • Peach Creek at FM 3081. 

Rain and river/stream stage data obtained at the sites would be transmitted to SJRA’s ALERT2 network and displayed on SJRA’s Contrail system. The data could be viewed online via SJRA’s website. That lets San Jacinto County staff and residents view the data at any time.

Not Advancing to Next Round

The SJRA had also submitted a first-round grant application to develop preliminary designs for sand traps. The sand traps were supposed to reduce the amount of sediment moving downstream. SJRA confirmed that this grant application will not move forward.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/24/2020 based on input from SJRA

1122 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Houston Area Lucked Out With Beta

Beta is now off to the east. As of 10:30 am on 9/23/2020, the East and West Forks are well within their banks. So are the lesser tributaries with the exception of Cypress Creek. Lake Conroe is still below 200 feet. And Lake Houston, thanks to a pre-release, is only about a tenth of an inch above normal so far, though it is rising this morning.

4-Day Rainfall Total for Storm

The radar image below shows the total rainfall accumulations across the Houston Area for the duration of the storm, starting at 2:37p.m. on 9/19/2020. This was a story of selective drenching. The south and southwest sides of the city received four times as much rain as Kingwood, Crosby and Atascocita. And more than twice as much rain as Humble. They got caught under a training feeder band; we missed it.

Source: RadarScope Pro

Here are the totals associated with the different colors above:

  • Light green = 2 inches
  • Dark green = 3 inches
  • Light purple = 4 inches
  • Dark purple = 5 inches
  • Light blue = 6 inches
  • Dark blue = 7 inches
  • Yellow = 8 inches
  • Orange = 10 inches
  • Red = 12 inches
  • Brown = 15 inches

Harris County Flood Warning System Shows Slightly Higher Totals

The radar image may understate the totals. The four-day-rain totals from Harris County Flood Control District gages mirror the pattern above, but show slightly higher numbers. For instance, the radar image shows 3-4″ for Kingwood, but the gages show 4-5″. I live in Kingwood and my personal weather station recorded 4.92 inches for the same four-day period.

Regardless, those caught under training feeder bands on the south and southwest sides got drenched. The Lake Houston Area escaped the worst of the rains.

Source: Harris County Flood Warning System

Sheer, Dry Air Result in Low-Side of Predictions

While these totals are within the ranges predicted at the start of the storm, they definitely fall on the low side. Why?

Space City Weather offered this. “We had two big allies over the last week; moderate wind shear to prevent Beta from strengthening, and dry air over the state from a weak front that disrupted its circulation and prevented the formation of several, thick bands of rainfall. Instead, if you watched the radar closely, there was only ever really one strong band that was perhaps 10 to 15 miles across. This just happened to set up over Houston on Monday and Monday night…”

The Lessons of Beta

Even the heaviest rains we received were about one fourth of what Harvey dropped (40-60 inches). Beta was not unusual. As Space City Weather offered, “A tropical storm that brings a range of 5 to 15 inches rain across Houston, with rainfall rates below 2 inches per hour, is a fairly common event.”

Yet some areas still flooded. In my opinion, this underscores the need for:

  • HCFCD to continue and accelerate (if possible) its work.
  • All governments in the region to adopt higher regulations for new developments that reflect Atlas-14 rainfall tables.
  • People at all levels of government (Federal, State, Counties, Cities) to work together and make flood mitigation a top priority.
  • Leaders throughout the region to realize that we are all in this together. Slowing floodwater down in one area while speeding it up in another is a losing battle that undermines the economic heart of the region.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/23/2020

1121 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 370 after Imelda

Lake Houston Area Could Be in Beta’s Crosshairs Tonight

The center of Beta is currently near Bay City and moving ENE. For the next 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts maximum winds at 30 mph.

If any readers in the Lake Houston Area felt left out by Beta, tonight could be your night. According to the NHC, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and Space City Weather, models continue to show that a heavy band of rainfall will begin to develop over the next few hours across the northern portions of Harris County.

Beta Tuesday Evening
Beta Tuesday evening at 5PM, courtesy of RadarScope. The bands are moving from SE to NW. But the forward motion of the storm is perpendicular, from SW to NE. That could push new feeder bands into the Lake Houston Area later tonight.

Current Radar Trends Show Storm Moving Toward Northeast Harris County

“Current radar trends show what may be the start of this banding feature from Downtown Houston to Jersey Village to Waller where a broken band of heavy to excessive rainfall is forming,” said Lindner at 4pm today.

He continued, “Models show this band continuing well into the evening and overnight hours across much of northern and northeastern Harris County into Liberty County. Training of heavy rainfall is likely with this banding along with flash flooding.”

Additional rainfall of 4-7 inches will be possible over the northern portions of Harris County into Liberty County and possibly southern Montgomery County with isolated totals of 10-12 inches possible.

JEFF LINDNER, HARRIS COUNTY METEOROLOGIST

(Update At 9:10 PM) The radar image above looked like this and heavy rain had started in Kingwood.

Source: RadarScope

However, in the upper San Jacinto Watershed, the expected rainfall amounts will likely produce flooding only on Cypress and Little Cypress Creeks.

In other parts of Houston, the following streams could flood:

  • Greens Bayou
  • Halls Bayou
  • Hunting Bayou
  • White Oak Bayou tributaries
  • Cedar Bayou
  • Gum Gully
  • Langham Creek
  • Horsepen Creek
  • South Mayde Creek
  • Bear Creek

The largest threat at this point is street flooding. So move your cars out of the street tonight.

West Fork Still At Normal Level

At 4PM CDT Tuesday, the West Fork San Jacinto at US59 is still nearly seven feet from coming out of its banks.

Source: Harris County Flood Warning System. The normal level of Lake Houston at this gage is 42.4 feet.

Flood Warning System Shows Effects of Heavy Training

The high rainfall gradient across Harris County should the effects of heavy training by Beta’s feeder bands during the last 48 hours. Places under the bands received 12 to 14 inches of rains. Meanwhile, the Lake Houston Area received only around an inch so far.

Beta’s heaviest rainfall until now focused on SW Harris County. Figures shown represent last 48 hours. Source: Harris County Flood Warning System. Note 13.44 inches on HW288!

Worst Likely Over for SW Harris County

Some heavy rainfall is still possible in already hard-hit southern and southwestern Harris County. However, where and potentially how much may fall in that area is uncertain.

Beta Continuing to Weaken

High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has continued to weaken.

Cloud tops only extend up to 25,000- 30,000 ft, mainly near and northeast of the center. However, they are quite prodigious rain-producers. Rainfall totals of 13-14 inches having been measured across portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far.

The Future of Beta

Since Beta should remain inland throughout the forecast period, the cyclone is not expected to regain tropical storm status. Beta should degenerate into a remnant low within 36 hours and dissipate over Mississippi or Alabama in 96 hours, if not sooner.

At 4 p.m. Tuesday, September 22, 2020, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its last update on Beta.

Said Space City Weather, “The good news is that this mess will begin to clear our of here by Wednesday morning, if not sooner for some areas. The bad news is that we’ve got to get through later today and tonight.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/2020 based on data from HCFCD, NHC and Space City Weather

1120 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 369 since Imelda

Beta Downgraded to Tropical Depression

At 10 a.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) downgraded Tropical Storm Beta to a tropical depression. The NHC also cancelled the tropical storm and storm surge warnings that were in effect. However, flash flood warnings remain in effect for large parts of the seven-county Houston region, especially the southern part. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the entire region.

RadarScope split image. Left half shows track of active storms as of 9:06AM CDT. Right half shows total rainfall accumulation for Beta. Note band of extreme rainfall near Sugar Land and sharp drop-off near Kingwood.

Flash Flood Warnings and Watches

A flash flood warning means that flooding is in progress. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to Flash Flooding.

Source: National Weather Service. Updated at 10:29 a.m. 9/22/2020. Reddish area = Flash flood warning. Green = Flash flood watch.

Lake Conroe/Lake Houston Within Banks

Neither Lake Conroe, nor Lake Houston have yet been adversely affected by Beta.

The level of Lake Conroe stands at 199.63 feet. Normal conservation pool equals 201.

According to the Coastal Water Authority, Lake Houston is at:

Lake Level41.41 ft.
Normal Pool42.4 ft.
Source: Coastal Water Authority

USGS shows that even though the lake has received about 1.75 inches of rainfall to date…

…the lake level has been dropping, no doubt due to a preemptive release.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 10:50 on 9/22/2020 based on NHC, NWS, and RadarScope data

1120 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 369 since Imelda

Beta Stalling Onshore Around Victoria; Will Start Moving Toward Houston Tonight

Tropical Storm Beta moved inland last night around 10 p.m. The center is now near Victoria and moving toward the northwest near 3 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts Beta will weaken and stall today, but will then begin to move slowly toward the Houston Area tonight. They expect forward speed to increase Wednesday through Friday.

At the moment, maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph and a gust to 47 mph were recently reported at Victoria, Texas. But at the moment, my wind gage is reading ZERO here in Kingwood.

Yesterday’s Heaviest Rains Narrowly Missed Lake Houston Area

Yesterday’s heaviest rainfall narrowly missed us. While the Lake Houston Area received around an inch of rain, the southwest corner of Loop 610 received 11.64 inches due to a training feeder band.

The main threat today to the Lake Houston Area is having a similar feeder band train over us.

Below are the two-day storm totals so far for Beta in Harris County.

Source: Harris County Flood Warning System as of 6:30 am 9/22/2020.

Rainfall Predictions

For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected.

Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring south and west of the Lake Houston Area and will continue today.

RadarScope image as of 6:30 a.m. CDT on 9/22/2020. Center of storm located over Victoria in lower left.

Minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.

Track

Steering currents around the storm are now collapsing, and Beta is expected to meander during the next 12-24 hours. By this time tomorrow, however, a mid-level trough over west Texas should begin moving eastward and scoop Beta up. That will cause the storm to move toward the east-northeast near or just inland of the upper Texas coast through 36 hours.

After that time, Beta will likely turn northeastward, moving farther inland across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. Beta should weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours before it reaches the Lake Houston Area. It will become a remnant low in 2-3 days.

Tornadoes

A tornado or two could occur today near the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.

Surf

Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Winds

It is unlikely we will see tropical storm strength winds in the Lake Houston Area.

Winds will increase today as Beta moves in our direction. But Beta is barely at tropical storm strength now and is weakening. The most likely arrival time for the heaviest winds: tonight at 8 p.m.

Flash-Flooding Potential

A flash flooding event is in progress over Harris County. “Numerous roadways are flooded. Avoid travel.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

At this time (8am Tuesday, 9/22/2020), the main problem areas are south and west of Houston near the coast. However, that could change as the storm moves toward us.

Channel Status in Harris County. Green means “within banks.” Yellow means “flooding possible.” Red means “flooding likely.”

See data on the problem areas below.

Harris County Flood Control District – Hydrologic Operations Division
          Rain and Channel Status Report at 09/22/2020 07:30 AM
          ============================================     

Maximum Rainfall the last  1hr
1.56 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard
1.4 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
1.24 inches – Gage 370 @ 370 Sims Bayou @ SH 288
1.16 inches – Gage 190 @ 190 Clear Creek @ SH 288
1.04 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road

Maximum Rainfall the last  6hrs
5.72 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road
5.0 inches – Gage 2265 @ 2265 Buffalo Bayou @ Piney Point Rd
4.56 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
4.6 inches – Gage 2260 @ 2260 Buffalo Bayou @ San Felipe Drive
4.48 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard
4.4 inches – Gage 2270 @ 2270 Buffalo Bayou @ West Beltway 8
4.44 inches – Gage 2255 @ 2255 Briar Branch @ Campbell Road
4.52 inches – Gage 420 @ 420 Brays Bayou @ South Main Street

Maximum Rainfall the last  12hrs
8.4 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road
8.28 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard
8.0 inches – Gage 370 @ 370 Sims Bayou @ SH 288
7.76 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
7.4 inches – Gage 445 @ 445 Willow Water Hole @ Landsdowne Drive
7.28 inches – Gage 180 @ 180 Clear Creek @ Mykawa Road
7.2 inches – Gage 360 @ 360 Sims Bayou @ Martin Luther King Road
6.96 inches – Gage 460 @ 460 Brays Bayou @ Gessner Road
6.56 inches – Gage 175 @ 175 Clear Creek @ Pearland Parkway
6.48 inches – Gage 380 @ 380 Sims Bayou @ Hiram Clark Rd
6.44 inches – Gage 465 @ 465 Brays Bayou @ Beltway 8
6.32 inches – Gage 2265 @ 2265 Buffalo Bayou @ Piney Point Rd
6.04 inches – Gage 470 @ 470 Brays Bayou @ Belle Park Drive
6.2 inches – Gage 420 @ 420 Brays Bayou @ South Main Street

Maximum Rainfall the last  24hrs
11.04 inches – Gage 180 @ 180 Clear Creek @ Mykawa Road
11.0 inches – Gage 370 @ 370 Sims Bayou @ SH 288
10.88 inches – Gage 435 @ 435 Willow Water Hole @ Willowbend Boulevard
10.56 inches – Gage 445 @ 445 Willow Water Hole @ Landsdowne Drive
10.36 inches – Gage 430 @ 430 Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road
10.12 inches – Gage 175 @ 175 Clear Creek @ Pearland Parkway
10.12 inches – Gage 380 @ 380 Sims Bayou @ Hiram Clark Rd
9.96 inches – Gage 440 @ 440 Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
9.92 inches – Gage 150 @ 150 Clear Creek @ Country Club Drive
9.84 inches – Gage 145 @ 145 Clear Creek @ Dixie Farm Road
9.8 inches – Gage 190 @ 190 Clear Creek @ SH 288
9.6 inches – Gage 460 @ 460 Brays Bayou @ Gessner Road
9.4 inches – Gage 105 @ 105 Marys Creek @ Winding Road
9.44 inches – Gage 360 @ 360 Sims Bayou @ Martin Luther King Road
8.68 inches – Gage 135 @ 135 Clear Creek @ FM 2351
8.56 inches – Gage 465 @ 465 Brays Bayou @ Beltway 8
8.36 inches – Gage 115 @ 115 Cowart Creek @ Baker Road
8.28 inches – Gage 140 @ 140 Turkey Creek @ FM 1959

Stream Water Surface Elevation Data

Out of Banks:
Gage 110 @    Clear Creek @ I-45
Gage 120 @    Clear Creek @ FM 528
Gage 130 @    Clear Creek @ Bay Area Boulevard
Gage 135 @    Clear Creek @ FM 2351
Gage 145 @    Clear Creek @ Dixie Farm Road
Gage 175 @    Clear Creek @ Pearland Parkway
Gage 180 @    Clear Creek @ Mykawa Road
Gage 610 @    Taylors Bayou @ Shoreacres Boulevard
Gage 2150 @    South Mayde @ Greenhouse Road

Near Bankfull:
Gage 100 @    Clear Lake 2nd Outlet @ SH 146
Gage 140 @    Turkey Creek @ FM 1959
Gage 150 @    Clear Creek @ Country Club Drive
Gage 160 @    Beamer Ditch @ Hughes Road
Gage 170 @    Clear Creek @ Nassau Bay
Gage 190 @    Clear Creek @ SH 288
Gage 200 @    Taylor Lake @ Nasa Road 1
Gage 410 @    Brays Bayou @ Lawndale Street
Gage 420 @    Brays Bayou @ South Main Street
Gage 430 @    Brays Bayou @ Stella Link Road
Gage 440 @    Brays Bayou @ Rice Avenue
Gage 460 @    Brays Bayou @ Gessner Road
Gage 480 @    Keegans Bayou @ Roark Road
Gage 710 @    San Jacinto River @ Rio Villa
Gage 720 @    San Jacinto River @ US 90
Gage 740 @    Lake Houston @ FM 1960
Gage 1610 @    Greens Bayou @ Normandy Street
Gage 1720 @    Cedar Bayou @ SH 146
Gage 2115 @    Langham Creek @ Clay Rd
Gage 2210 @    Buffalo Bayou @ Turning Basin
Gage 2253 @    Buttermilk Creek @ Moorberry Lane
Gage 2255 @    Briar Branch @ Campbell Road
Gage 2265 @    Buffalo Bayou @ Piney Point Rd

Key Messages

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/2020 at 8am based on data from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the National Hurricane Center, Harris County Flood Warning System and RadarScope

1120 Days After Hurricane Harvey and 369 since Imelda

Beta Moving Ashore Today Then Likely Tracking Slightly South of Houston

As of 10:00 a.m. Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) still shows the center of Tropical Storm Beta located offshore. The latest forecasts from the NHC predict that Beta will move onshore near Matagorda Bay, then move up the coastline toward League City.

The NHC also advises that the storm has picked up speed. Yesterday, they estimated 3 mph; today 7 mph.

No one seems to predict that the storm will intensify before landfall.

“Dry air continues to work into and wrap around the large wind field of Beta yielding the disorganized precipitation field with the system.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
National Weather Service radar Image of Beta as of 10:04 am Monday 9/21/20.
Lake Houston Area is the blue dot in the center of the swirl. Red line is predicted path of Beta. Source: Weather Live.

Main Threat: Storm Surge

At this time, Beta’s main threat is to the coastline through storm surge. “Tides are currently running 4.0-4.5 feet in Clear Lake and across coastal sections of Harris County with several sites near the Gulf beaches running 4.0-4.5 feet. Coastal flooding is ongoing and will continue for much of the day. Several roadways are underwater along the coast and around Galveston Bay,” says Lindner.

Lindner continues, “As Beta makes landfall along the middle Texas coast later today, the storm will begin to slow and then turn ENE toward the upper TX coast. It will slowly weaken along the way. This track will keep onshore flow along the upper Texas coast tonight and Tuesday. Tides will remain high into the high tide tonight. Impacts along the coast will continue through the day and into tonight and likely Tuesday.”

Wind Forecast

The most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds, if we get them, is later tonight.

Tropical storm force winds already cover a large part of the mid-Texas coast.

The storm will weaken as it moves toward the Houston Area and turn into a tropical depression. The further north you live from the coastline, the less intense winds will be.

Depending on where you live in Houston, you have a 30% to 100% chance of experiencing topical storm force winds. The Lake Houston Area is on the low end of that range. The National Weather Service predicts that the Lake Houston Area has a chance of seeing 39-57 mph winds. But Spaces City Weather advises that Beta is “not a significant wind threat.”

However, note that tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center of the storm.

Galveston has reported sustained winds of 39 mph and a gust of 43 mph during the past couple of hours.

Rainfall

Dry air has worked into the circulation of Beta, according to Lindner. “This has resulted in a more disorganized and scattered rainfall pattern. However, the system is still capable of heavy rainfall especially near the center later today and in bending structures east of the center for the next 48 hours.”

Models show several banding features developing during the next 48 hours over SE TX, But little consensus exists on where the heaviest rainfall totals may be.

Lindner advises that, “Given that much of the area will reside on the eastern side of a the tropical system, we should keep some level of concern of heavy rainfall and flooding in place through the next 48 hours.”

Lindner predicts that widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches will be possible for areas along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 10-12 inches under any training feeder bands. Totals to the north of I-10 will likely average 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 6-7 inches. 

However, the NHC predicts slightly less rain. See the map below.

As long as the rainfall spreads out over the next 48 hours, most of the creeks and bayous can handle the expected rainfall amounts, Lindner says. But should any training develop, flash flooding would be possible. 

Watches and Warnings in Effect

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana. That includes Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. That includes the Lake Houston Area.

National Hurricane Center

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Lindner, the NHC and NWS all warn that tornadoes remain a threat with this storm. Especially, tonight and Tuesday.

Track

Yesterday, models predicted that Beta would track up US59 toward the Humble/Kingwood Area. However, today, forecasters think the storm will track closer to the coast. They put it on a line toward League City.

Wind shear will keep Beta’s track close to the coastline, but it will also affect the cyclone’s intensity along with land interaction. The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48 hours.

Summary

Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible, but the danger is “slight.”

National Hurricane Center

Net: Beta is still a threat. But it may be less of one than yesterday. That’s because of the dry air folding into the system and wind sheer which seem to be weakening it somewhat. Be hopeful, but cautious. Expect several inches of rain and high winds in the next two days with both tapering off Wednesday.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/2020 at noon based on data from NHC, NWS, Jeff Lindner, Space City Weather and Weather Live

1119 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 368 since Imelda

Excessive Rainfall Threat from Beta Spreads Inland

As of mid-day Sunday, all of East Texas now faces some level of excessive rainfall and flash flood risk from Tropical Storm Beta.

The projected path of the storm has shifted inland, so rainfall will reach father north. The latest track now takes the storm on a path right up US59 from Sugar Land to Humble and Kingwood. However, Beta likely be a tropical depression by the time it reaches the north side.

Kingwood is the blue dot next to Spring.

Six to 15 Inches of Rain Now Predicted

According to the local National Weather Service office and the National Hurricane Center, most of the Houston region can expect 6 to 15 inches with the highest totals closer to the coast.

Harris, Montgomery and Liberty Counties (and the whole Houston region) face a high to moderate threat of flooding rains. The first rainbands from Beta have already started to move onshore today, but the heaviest rain will not occur until Monday into Tuesday.

North Houston Under Moderate Flooding Rain Threat

Flash Flood Watch in Effect

The entire region is under a flash flood watch. Coastal areas also face storm surge and tropical storm warnings.

Slow Moving Storm Will Produce Prolonged Rains

Beta is meandering slowly at about 3 mph northwest toward the coastline west of Houston and will then curl back over Houston. It should move inland sometime Monday or Monday night and turn from a storm into a depression by the time it reaches Houston.

However, Beta could dump rain on us from later today all the way through Wednesday.

40-50% Chance of Tropical Storm Force Winds Reaching North Houston

The North Houston Area has a 40-50% chance of seeing tropical storm force winds from Beta.

If the high winds reach this far inland, they would likely arrive Monday evening. Winds extend outward from the center for 195 miles as of Sunday morning.

Feeder Bands Extend Outward 190 Miles

In fact, at 11 a.m. Sunday morning, the first feeder band was approaching the eastern side of Houston, as you can see in the radar image below.

This image shows how the wind and rain from Beta could remain with us for days as the storm’s center wanders around the Gulf.

These feeder bands reach out 190 miles. That is roughly the distance from Houston to San Antonio. So Beta will produce long-duration rainfall from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. 

Flash, Urban, and River Flooding Likely 

The National Weather Service warns that coastal flooding will remain a threat through midweek with the worst of the storm surge anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. 

Elsewhere impacts from the excessive rain include:

  • Rainfall flooding may prompt evacuations and rescues.
  • Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks.
  • Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers.
  • Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. 
  • Flood waters may cover escape routes. 
  • Streets and parking lots may become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged.
  • Driving conditions may become dangerous. 
  • Many roads and bridges may close with some weakened or washed out.

Lake-Level Situation

According to the SJRA, Beta has the potential to dump up to 8 inches of rain in Montgomery County

SJRA is operating under standard protocols for a severe weather event and will be onsite at Lake Conroe throughout the duration of Tropical Storm Beta.  

Lake Conroe remains 18 inches low, and based on the current forecast, no reservoir releases are expected. 

SJRA

Real-time information on lake level can be found on the SJRA homepage at the “Lake Operations and Rainfall Dashboard” link.

At of this writing, Lake Houston is down a foot compared to its normal pool level (41.38 vs 42.4). You can monitor Lake Houston levels via the Coastal Water Authority website.

Monitor Downstream River Levels

You can monitor stream and river levels in near-real time at Harris County Flood Warning System. Make sure you check out the inundation mapping feature.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/2020 based on information from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center

1118 Days after Hurricane Harvey

How Much Rain Would It Take To Flood Elm Grove Again?

As Tropical Storm Beta bears down on the Houston Area, many people in the Elm Grove/North Kingwood Forest area worry that they might flood again. How likely is that, given the current predictions of 6-10 inches? After all, on May 7 last year, Elm Grove flooded on what was officially a six inch rain according to the nearest gage at West Lake Houston Parkway and the West Fork.

Additional Detention in Woodridge Village Now…

First of all, understand that upstream conditions have changed. On May 7th, only about 11% of the planned detention pond capacity had been constructed. And only 23% was constructed by Imelda. Today, 100% is in place.

…But Detention Based on Pre-Atlas 14 Rainfall Rates

Even though that’s far more than Woodridge Village had during the May or September floods, the detention calculations by LJA Engineering were based on pre-Atlas 14 rainfall rates. A 100-year rainfall then was about 40% less than the official 100-year rainfall now.

So, the questions is, “How much rain would Beta have to dump on Woodridge Village before it overwhelmed the detention ponds that exist today?”

Figures Used by LJA

The chart below shows the rainfalls that the ponds were designed to hold without flooding. The bench mark its the 24-hour, hundred year rain.

These figures come from the hydrology report submitted by LJA to Montgomery County. A table buried on page 32 of the PDF shows that they based their analysis on a pre-Atlas 14, 100-year storm that dropped 12.17 inches of rain in 24 hours.

From Page 2.1 of LJA Hydrology Report Addendum, 8/28/2018 (page 32 of pdf.)

The ponds should also hold any of the shorter-duration rainfalls in the last column above.

Assumptions Underlying the Answer

To answer the question – How much would it take to flood Elm Grove again? – we need to make several assumptions:

With those caveats in mind, it would take 12+ inches of rain in 24 hours to exceed the capacity of the detention ponds currently on Woodridge Village. After that, water would start to overflow.

Short, High-Intensity Downpours Can Cause Different Type of Flooding

However, consider the other durations in the chart above. Seven inches in three hours or nine inches in six hours could also exceed the capacity.

Actually, as you get into these short-duration, high-intensity rainfalls, you introduce the risk of flooding from a second source: overwhelming the capacity of storm drains.

Storm Drains Designed for 2″ Per Hour

The storm drains in Kingwood are designed to convey about two inches of rain per hour. When you exceed that, water begins to back up in the streets. Exceed it enough, and water could actually enter homes – without sheet flow from Woodridge Village.

NHC Rainfall Prediction Spans 5 Days

The six-to-ten inch prediction issued by the National Hurricane Center for Beta spans five days. That’s good news. If ten inches were evenly spread out over five days, the streets, drains and ditches could easily handle two inches per day.

But those short, high intensity rainfalls – when you get two inches in five or ten minutes – represent a real danger. There’s just nowhere for the water to when it comes down that quickly.

Perhaps the Biggest Danger

Even if we got the predicted 6-10 inches all in one day, that’s still, at most, about 80% of the old 100-year rain which the detention was designed for.

I suspect the biggest danger from Beta may be those short, high-intensity cloud bursts or training feeder bands that dump a couple inches in five or ten minutes.

So keep your eye on the rain gage. Sign up for alerts at the Harris County Flood Warning System. Also, keep your eye on the forecasts; uncertainty still exists with Beta, its track and rainfall potential.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2020

1117 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 1 year after Imelda

Beta Rainfall Estimates Increasing; 6-10 Inches Now Predicted for Lake Houston Area

Beta has turned toward the Texas coast. Adverse conditions will likely begin Sunday along coast and spread inland. The main forecast change since this morning? An increase in rainfall amounts, which could be significant. See rainfall section below.

A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued on Sunday for the area.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Discussion

There has been little change in the overall organization of Beta today. Forecasters expect slow intensification as Beta approaches the TX coast.

Track: 

There have been no significant changes in the track reasoning today and the official forecast remains similar from earlier this morning. With that said, there is some uncertainty on when Beta will turn toward the N and NE near the mid Tx coast early next week, but generally impacts will be the same for much of SE TX.

Intensity: 

Given the lack of organization of the system and the lurking dry air to the west, it is now unlikely that Beta will attain hurricane intensity. The National Hurricane Center now keeps the system as a strong tropical storm as it approaches the TX coast. It should slowly as it moves NE or ENE up the coast. 

Impacts

Storm Surge: 

Water levels will rise along the upper TX coast beginning Saturday and worsen Sunday into Monday due to the expansion of the tropical storm force wind field. Expect swells reaching 15-25 feet over the NW Gulf. Four- to eight-foot waves could break on beaches. These large swells will lead to wave run up on top of the elevated tides.

Results:
  • Significant beach erosion
  • Damage to fragile dune systems.
  • Damage to coastal infrastructure
  • Inundation of low lying roads near the coast.
  • Once the water begins to rise on Saturday evening, some low lying areas may remain flooded into the middle of next week.
  • Overwash is likely on Hwy 87.
  • Ferry operations at both the Galveston-Bolivar and the Lynchburg sites may be impacted. 
Rainfall: 

While there is still some uncertainty, the storm could produce very heavy rainfall rates and amounts.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

The rainfall forecasts have been adjusted upward, even though some models suggest only meager amounts of rainfall with Beta. Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, currently predicts:

  • Coast: 12-18 inches
  • Coastal counties: 10-15 inches
  • South of I-10: 10-15 inches
  • South of Hwy 105: 6-10 inches
  • North of Hwy 105: 4-6 inches
Note that the rainfall amounts above are for a five-day total.

Given the forecast rainfall amounts…flooding of creeks and bayous across Harris County may flood depending on how the rain falls and how much falls at one time.

By Tuesday, when the ground is saturated, NOAA gives the Lake Houston Area a slight chance of flash flooding.

Six inches could fill smaller creeks; 7-8 inches could fill larger streams and bayous such as Buffalo. 

Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are currently empty.

Winds: 

Tropical storm force winds will be possible starting Sunday evening around Matagorda Bay with sustained 40mph winds likely spreading northward along the upper TX coast on Monday including Galveston Bay. Sustained winds of 55-65mph will spread up the TX coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Across Harris County wind will increase into the 25-35mph range on Monday and possibly 40-45mph range on Tuesday into Wednesday with higher gusts, especially near Galveston Bay.  

Note: Tropical storm force winds will begin to reach the coast on Monday…well ahead of any landfall of the center…due to the expanding wind field. Tropical storm force winds now extend 175 miles outward from the center of the storm.

Summary of Watches/Warnings In Effect

As of 4PM Saturday, 9/19/20:

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

  • PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS INCLUDING:
    • COPANO BAY
    • ARANSAS BAY
    • SAN ANTONIO BAY
    • MATAGORDA BAY
    • GALVESTON BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:

  • * BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY
  • * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND LAKE CALCASIEU

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:

* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:

  • PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:

  • SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
  • EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

Protective Actions

  • Bookmark and monitor Harris County Flood Warning System throughout the storm. Familiarize yourself with the real-time inundation mapping feature.
  • Bookmark and monitor the National Hurricane Center for the most current updates on Beta.
  • Prepare now for a long period of coastal flooding and periods of heavy rainfall.
  • Voluntary evacuations have been recommended for:
    • Western end of Galveston Island, west of the seawall
    • Bolivar Peninsula
    • Low-lying areas of Chamber, Brazoria and Matagorda Counties (outside levee protection)
    • Low-lying areas of Seabrook.  

AlertHouston Recommends Taking These Steps Now

  • Ensure your family has 5-7 days of food, water, and necessary supplies.
    • This includes enough prescription medication for at least this duration, in case pharmacies and doctor’s offices are closed.
    • Consider the unique needs of small children, seniors, family members with access and functional needs, and pets.
  • Decide what you and your family will do if the storm impacts your area. Most City of Houston residents are not vulnerable to storm surge and do not need to evacuate before a hurricane or tropical storm. Vulnerable residents who require electricity may also consider evacuation in advance of a major storm. For a map of hurricane evacuation zones and mandatory evacuation areas, visit: houstonoem.org/hurricanes
  • Develop a family communication plan, so that you know who to check in with after a storm. Visit readyhoustontx.gov for more information on developing a plan.
  • Know how to turn off your utilities. This includes electricity, water, and gas. Only turn off gas if instructed by local officials or by CenterPoint Energy.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2020 with data from the NHC, HCFCD, and City of Houston

1117 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Year since Imelda