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As of 7 a.m., Laura Predicted to Make Landfall at Sabine Pass as Cat 4 Hurricane

This update on Hurricane Laura is based on information from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Hurricane Center based on their 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. updates on Wednesday 8/26/2020.

Laura rapidly strengthening…now a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane, predicted to reach Cat 4.

Extremely dangerous hurricane will make landfall near Sabine Pass tonight with catastrophic impacts.

All preparations must be completed by 6:00 p.m. this evening.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate late this afternoon and evening over the region.

Rainfall predictions for the Lake Houston Area increased overnight. We could now receive up to six inches.

*The Lake Houston Area now has a 60-80% chance of experiencing topical-storm-force winds from Laura.*

*Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive as early as mid-afternoon.*

*The most likely time, however, for the arrival of tropical-storm-force winds is later this evening.*

Discussion

Laura became a large and dangerous hurricane overnight with expansion of the wind field. USAF missions indicate the central pressure continues to fall. Winds are increasing. And Laura has experienced a 40 knot increase in winds in the last 24 hours. (A knot = 1.15 mph.) The eye of the hurricane is starting to clear out. Further rapid intensification is likely today.

*The cone of uncertainty now shows Houston will NOT experience a direct hit from the storm, but we will still feel it. Effects from the Laura extend well outward from the center.*

Track:

The center of Laura should cross the coast near Sabine Pass, TX, near the Texas/Louisiana Border. Models have tightly clustered just either side of the state line. There is high confidence that Laura will make landfall in the areas between Sea Rim State Park and Cameron LA early Thursday morning. The hurricane should move rapidly northward, up the Sabine River Valley on Thursday.

Given the fast forward motion, significant wind impacts will extend well inland along the track of Laura with wind damage likely extending 100-200 miles inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana.

Intensity:

Laura will pass over warm Gulf waters today and upper air conditions that favor intensification through landfall. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a category 4, 130 mph hurricane at landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 175 miles.

Wind damage and storm surge impacts will extend well beyond the center.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist

Impacts

Storm Surge:

Expect a catastrophic storm surge event over extreme SE TX and much of coastal Louisiana.

Strong north winds tonight may drive water levels along the north side of Galveston Island and Bolivar to elevated levels and water levels in the NW part of Galveston Bay may fall well below normal.

The following values are above ground level:

Galveston Bay: 1-3 ft

Bolivar: 2-5 ft

High Island to Sea Rim State Park: 6-9 ft

Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City (Including Beaumont and Lake Charles): 10-15 ft.

Large destructive waves will accompany storm surge.

Winds:

West of I-45: 30-40mph

East of I-45: 45-55mph

Chambers, Liberty, Polk Counties: 50-65mph

Jefferson, Orange Counties and Lake Charles: 110-120mph

Higher gusts will occur in squalls.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

The Harris County line is 75 miles from Sabine Pass; Lake Houston 80 miles.

Rainfall:

West of I-45: 1-2 inches

East of I-45: 2-6 inches, isolated totals up to 8 inches.

Sabine River Valley: 8-12 inches

Overnight, rainfall predictions for the Lake Houston Area increased 2 inches. The six inches now predicted roughly equals the amount of rain the Lake Houston Area received on May 7th last year. Elm Grove residents: Please note: the volume of detention ponds now on Woodridge Village should be enough to protect you unless there is a design flaw.

The main rainfall threat comes from rapid, intense rains which can cause street flooding.

Actions

Complete all preparations by 6:00 pm this evening. Earlier the better.

If in evacuation areas, evacuate immediately…especially in the Beaumont and Lake Charles area.

Lake Report

Lake Houston as of 6:30 a.m. was at 41.17 feet (full pool 42.4). The Coastal Water Authority will continue releasing water from Lake Houston until it reaches 41 feet.

Lake Conroe is not releasing water and stands at 199.72 feet (full pool is 201).

For More Up-to-the-Minute Information

For the most up-to-date rainfall totals and water levels in bayous, creeks, and rivers, visit www.harriscountyfws.org. This system relies on a network of gage stations that have been strategically placed throughout Harris and surrounding counties.

Also visit the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 7:12 a.m. on 8/26/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

1093 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Lake Houston Level Now Being Lowered in Advance of Hurricane Laura

Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin announced at 4:31 p.m. Tuesday that Houston Public Works will initiate the temporary lowering of Lake Houston within the hour. The City made this decision after taking into account the fast-changing nature of Hurricane Laura. The Coastal Water Authority will lower Lake Houston to 41.0 ft from 41.59, another six tenths of a foot, which is 18 inches below full pool.

Laura should arrive late tomorrow or early Thursday as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane conditions are expected in Chambers and Liberty County – with 45-60 mph winds east of I-45 throughout the Lake Houston Area.

*Floodgates on Lake Houston Dam photographed on 6/16/2020.*

2 to 4 Inches Expected

The National Hurricane Center predicts that Hurricane Laura will bring 2 – 4 inches of rain to the Lake Houston Area in the next few days. Isolated areas could receive 6 inches. These rainfall amounts exceed the 3 inch trigger to lower Lake Houston, said Martin.

Lake to Be Lowered Another 7.2 inches

As a result of these predicted rainfall amounts in addition to the rainfall that will be accumulated to our east, the Lake will be lowered gradually overnight from the current level, which is 41.6 ft down to an elevation of 41.0 ft. Six tenths of a foot is 7.2 inches.

The Lake will be maintained at a level of approximately 41.0 ft while there is an immediate inclement weather threat. Once that weather has moved out of our area, the Lake will be allowed to naturally refill from the storm’s runoff.

Some fluctuations in Lake level can be attributed to high winds so please keep that in mind when checking Lake levels.

Secure Shoreline Property NOW If You Have Not Already

Property owners were given notice Friday afternoon to secure property along the shoreline for a potential temporary lowering of Lake Houston. If you have not already done so now is the time to take action to secure your shoreline property.
Dave Martin, Mayor Pro Tem

The lake will be lowered at a cautious rate so as to not impact those living downstream. At the completion of this temporary lowering effort the total reduction in the level of Lake Houston from normal pool of 42.5 ft to 41.0 ft will be 1.5 feet.

For More Information

Residents may monitor the lowering of Lake Houston by visiting the Coastal Water Authority website or visiting Mayor Pro Tem Martin’s Facebook page for updates from the District E office.

No Mention of SJRA

Martin’s press release made no mention of the SJRA or Lake Conroe. Lake Conroe, which is farther west should receive less rain than Lake Houston from Laura.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2020 at 6 pm, based on a press release from Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin.

1092 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Laura Intensifying into Major Hurricane; Prepare for Big Winds, Power Outages

These warnings were just issued by Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the National Hurricane Center, and City of Houston:

Hurricane warnings issued from San Luis Pass into Louisiana.

Landfall of a devastating hurricane likely between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass tomorrow night.

Rush to complete preparations to protect life and property.

Heed all evacuation recommendations.

Discussion

Laura – now a hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph – is continuing to intensify. The hurricane will likely rapidly intensify over the next 24-36 hours, right up to landfall along the upper TX coast. The National Hurricane Center predicts Laura will become a major hurricane with sustained winds over 110 mph by tomorrow night or early Thursday morning when it makes landfall somewhere between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass.

Track:

Everyone should be planning for the landfall of a very serious hurricane between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass on the Louisiana border. Additional shifts in the track are possible that could bring the core of Laura into Galveston Bay and Harris/Galveston Counties.

The large wind field will result in strong winds likely 100-150 miles inland across east Texas.

Prepare for power outages extending well inland along with significant wind damage and extended outages.

Intensity:

Prepare for the impact of a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher). Once the inner core of Laura forms, significant intensification is likely, and conditions look very favorable for intensification.

Tropical Storm force winds will begin along the coast at around 8:00 pm Wednesday evening.

Advice from City, Lake Status

“Rainfall amounts in the Lake Houston Watershed over the next six days are expected to be 2 – 4 inches with isolated accumulation of 6 inches possible,” said Dave Martin. “Currently, the Lake Houston Watershed is dry and the projected impact to our area will be to our east with the largest possible impact expected along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. Lake Houston is already down one foot from normal pool with the possibility of being lowered additionally, if necessary. Please make sure all property along the shoreline is secured in the event additional lowering is ordered.”

“Regardless of where this storm lands,” said Martin, “it is important all residents prepare themselves and have a plan. Hurricane Laura will likely be similar to Ike with severe wind impacts and power outages. The City of Houston has prepared resources to help you get ready for upcoming disasters and make sure you are prepared for this one. Please visit www.readyhoustontx.gov to learn more.

Actions

Prepare for the landfall of a major hurricane along the SE TX coast
Bring in anything in your yard, such as lawn furniture, that could become airborne.
All preparations will be to be competed by 6:00 p.m. Wednesday evening.
Heed all evacuation orders.

For hurricane preparation tips from the National Weather Service, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020 based on input from the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Laura Upgraded to Hurricane; Will Intensify Through Landfall; Mandatory Evacuation for Galveston Island

Overnight, Laura turned into a hurricane. At 5:25 this morning, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, issued the following:

Hurricane Watches extended west to San Luis Pass…now include Harris and Galveston Counties

Major hurricane forecast in the NW Gulf of Mexico Wednesday

Enact hurricane plans now. Follow all recommendations from local officials.

At 7:00 a.m., he issued another warning saying that:

Laura upgraded to a hurricane…intensification will continue through landfall.

Mandatory evacuation order for Galveston Island effective immediately.

Discussion

Laura is now over the SE Gulf of Mexico and moving toward the WNW after having jogged westward overnight. Deep convection has developed over and near the center this morning. Some light northerly system continues to impact Laura, which continues to track to the south of predictions.

Track:

The steering pattern that will bring Laura to the NW Gulf of Mexico remains somewhat in flux this morning. Laura will turn northwest and then north. But uncertainty remains as to when Laura will make this turn. Overnight model guidance now delays this turn a little longer and brings Laura more toward the upper Texas coast. NHC may have to shift their forecast track a bit more westward later this morning.

While uncertainty remains in the eventual outcome of Laura, preparations for landfall of a major hurricane along the upper TX coast should be well underway.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Tropical storm force winds will begin to arrive along the coast Wednesday evening and spread inland Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Intensity:

A central core is starting to form with Laura and overall circulation of the system is looking better defined. Conditions in the central Gulf today favor a period of rapid intensification. Laura is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane along the SE TX/SW LA coast late Wednesday.

Laura is a fairly large storm and impacts will be far reaching from the impact point extending both west and east.

Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Impacts

Rainfall:

Will rainfall forecast at 2-4 inches east of I-45 and 1-3 inches west of I-45, but this may need to be increased later today. WPC has placed areas east of I-45 in a slight risk for flash flooding.

*Most of Houston falls into the light and dark green bands on the left, predicted to get 1-4 inches of rain.*

*NHC how gives the Houston Area a slight chance of flash flooding (10-20%).*

Storm Surge:

Still looking at 2-4 feet above ground level in Galveston Bay and 4-6 feet on Bolivar with levels of 7-11 feet east of High Island into Louisiana. Should the track shift more west, these values around Galveston Bay would potentially need to be increased significantly.

Wind:

Tropical storm force winds will be moving into the area Wednesday evening. Expect winds of 40-50mph across Harris County northward along I-45 with hurricane conditions becoming increasingly likely over Liberty and Chambers Counties. Any additional shift westward in the track will bring stronger winds across the area.

Be prepared for power outages starting Wednesday evening.

Actions

Enact hurricane plans now.

Follow all recommendation on evacuation from local officials.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

The National Hurricane Center advises that:

Storm Surge Watch is in effect for San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi.

High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX…4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft

Hurricane Watch is in effect for San Luis Pass Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana

Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

San Luis Pass to Freeport Texas
Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For inland watches and warnings, monitor the local National Weather Service forecast office.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2020 with input from CoH, Harris County, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and ReadyHarris.

1092 Days After Hurricane Harvey

Remember Uncertainty With Marco, Laura; It’s Why We Need More, Bigger Gates on Lake Houston

Many anxious flood victims worry openly on social media about about the possibility of flooding by back-to-back tropical events. Should we lower Lake Conroe? Is it too late? Will we flood again? Why aren’t they releasing water?

The novelty of having two tropical storms in the Gulf simultaneously has added a high degree of uncertainty to weather forecasting at the moment. The forecast tracks, intensities and dangers of Marco and Laura seem to change every few hours.

This is precisely why we need more and bigger flood gates on Lake Houston.

By the time we are certain what will happen with these storms, it will likely be too late to release water if we need to.

The bewildering multitude of competing weather forecast models complicates matters. They show landfall anywhere from Corpus Christi to the Mississippi just two days before the storms’ arrival. It reminds me of a fortune cookie I once got. It said, “A man with two clocks never knows what time it is.”

Marco Weakening Before Making Landfall

Since this morning, the cone of uncertainty for Marco has shifted inland again and the storm has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The only coastal watches or warnings remaining in effect have to do with Laura which will follow Marco later this week. (See more below.)

As of 4pm CDT on Monday 8/24/2020. Source for all graphics: National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center shows only a slight chance of flash flooding for the areas hit directly by Marco and those are far east of us. Rainfall potential from Marco through Wednesday evening for the Houston Area is less than an inch, according to the latest NHC predictions.

At 1 p.m. Monday, the NHC issued an advisory stating that, “It is reasonable to assume that sustained tropical storm force winds will no longer reach the northern Gulf coast. Therefore, all wind and surge warnings for the Gulf coast associated with Marco have been discontinued.”

Laura Remains Potent Threat

Even though Laura’s cone of uncertainty has shifted slightly east today, the Houston Area remains on the western edge of the cone.

At the moment, NHC predicts Laura will bring Houston 2-4 inches of rain, and the Lake Conroe area less than 2.

That’s enough to raise the chance of flash flooding to 5-10%.

Laura’s maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. NHC predicts little change in Laura’s strength today, but predicts the storm will strengthen when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. They foreast Laura will become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional strengthening on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles, primarily to the northeast and east of the center. As Laura approaches the Gulf Coast, swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.

Tropical storm force winds should reach the Texas coast between 8 a.m. and p.m. on Wednesday. Most of the Houston Area will have a 40-50% chance of experiencing winds greater than 39 mph.

Alert Houston has just issued the following notice:

“The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Houston. Coastal portions of the city are also under a Storm Surge Watch. Although the exact track and intensity of Laura is still unknown, Houston residents should pay close attention and begin taking steps in the event an emergency situation develops.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, put a finer point on it. “Tropical storm force winds are likely along and east of I-45 with sustained winds of 35-45mph across portions of Galveston, Harris, Montgomery and Walker Counties. Strong winds of 45-55mph will be possible across Chambers, Liberty, San Jacinto, Polk, and Trinity Counties. It is possible that near hurricane conditions could scrape close to eastern Chambers and eastern Liberty counties.”

To Lower or Not to Lower, That is the Question

So with:

People panicking
Forecasts changing hourly
Lake Conroe Association restocking its war chest
Wildfires burning up the west
Drought spreading into parts of Texas
The Nation’s foremost hurricane experts predicting only 1-2 inches of rain for Lake Conroe and 2-4 for Lake Houston…

…what do you do? Order the lakes lowered or keep them where they are?

Source: https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas

The answer is obvious. You enlarge the discharge capacity of Lake Houston by adding more and bigger gates to the spillway.

*Gates on Lake Houston have one-fifteenth the discharge capacity of those on Lake Conroe.*

Lake Conroe can release water 15 times faster than Lake Houston. 150,000 cubic feet per second vs. 10,000. With that in mind, the likelihood, at this hour (5pm Monday), is that water released from Lake Conroe could not get into the Gulf before Wednesday when the storms arrive.

And that, in a sentence, is why we need more and bigger flood gates on the Lake Houston Dam. Remember Marco and Laura, and that knot in the pit of your stomach, the next time the subject of gates comes up.

By the way, neither Lake Conroe, nor Lake Houston, is releasing water at this time. Lake Conroe is at 199.76 feet above sea level and Lake Houston is at 41.6 feet. Both are already below their normal levels, though not as low as many would prefer. At 4:24 this afternoon, the SJRA issued a press release saying that, “We continue to watch Laura closely. Right now the projected totals of rainfall in the Lake Conroe watershed are very low.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020 at 5 pm

1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Marco Downgraded to Tropical Storm, But Track Shifts Toward Houston; Laura Could Hit Coast as Cat 2 or Higher

At 7:00 a.m. CDT Monday, Tropical Storm Marco was moving north toward the mouth of the Mississippi at 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts Marco will approach the Louisiana coast this afternoon, and then turn west toward Houston/Galveston, following the coast through Tuesday night.

NHC expects Marco to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday over southeast Texas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily northeast of the center.

Maximum sustained winds have already decreased to near 60 mph with higher gusts.

As One Storm Dissipates, Another Arrives

As Marco is breaking up, Laura could arrive as a Category 2 or higher hurricane.

The NHC still gives the Houston Area a 50-60% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, most likely from Laura (see below).

The most likely time for arrival of those winds is during the day on Wednesday.

Laura continues to move quickly WNW at near 21 mph.

“Details of when Laura will turn toward the NW and N and where the core of the system will cross the coast over the NW Gulf remain unclear,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

The official NHC forecast brings Laura toward the TX/LA border, but landfall could be as far west as Galveston Bay and as far east as Vermillion Bay.

*Models still show a wide spread of possible landfalls, but the largest cluster is on the TX/LA border.*

Lindner says, “It is important to not focus solely on the exact landfall points as Laura will be a large hurricane with far reaching impacts.”

Laura Intensity

Laura is disorganized this morning. Likely little will change in Laura’s overall intensity today, due to interaction with the Cuban landmass. Once Laura reaches the SE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, intensification is likely.

“It is unclear how quickly the inner core of Laura will form. Broad systems such as Laura tend to take time to develop,” says Lindner.

Laura will likely reach hurricane status over the central Gulf and be near major hurricane status over the NW Gulf on Wednesday.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Impacts from Laura

As of 7 a.m., NHC advises, “From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches near the Texas/Louisiana border. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.”

However, if the storm stays on its current course or shifts farther east, the amount of rainfall in the Houston Area will lessen. As of 4 a.m. this morning, Lindner predicted rainfall of:

2-4 inches east of I-45
1-3 inches west of I-45

Squalls will begin to arrive along the upper TX coast Wednesday and increase into Wednesday night and Thursday.

Tides/Storm Surge:

Laura will cause a large storm surge near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. Significant swells will begin to arrive on Tuesday. This will likely drive water levels upward along the Gulf beaches and into Galveston Bay, especially at high tide.

Note: water level rises will likely begin along the coast early Wednesday.

Winds:

Sustained winds of 35-45mph will be possible east of I-45 with lower speeds west of I-45. Winds may gust higher in squalls especially over Chambers, Liberty, eastern Harris, and Galveston counties. Any shift west in the forecast track will bring stronger winds into the area.

Sustained tropical storm force winds arrive along the upper TX coast by early evening on Wednesday.

Preparedness

Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the SE TX or SW LA coast should be underway.

Enact hurricane plans and follow all advice and recommendations from local elected officials and emergency management agencies.

Residents near the coast in evacuation areas, should review plans and react quickly should any evacuation recommendations be ordered.

Keep gas tanks full.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020

1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey

NHC Says Marco Now Hurricane, Laura Shifting West

As of 2 p.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Marco has officially turned into a hurricane and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Laura continuing to shift toward the west.

*Current positions of both storms as of 1:19 EDT Sunday, 8/23/2020.*

NHC Forecast for Marco as of 1pm CDT

At this time, Marco is not a large threat to the Houston Area. However storm-surge warnings are up from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay. Parts of coastal Louisiana could receive 4-6 feet of life-threatening storm surge.

The heaviest rain from Marco should hit from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

NOAA no longer predicts even a marginal risk of flash flooding from Marco for the Houston Area.

However, Houston could still feel significant wind from Marco. NHC shows Houston has a 60-70% chance of feeling tropical-storm-force winds (40 mph or higher).

The most likely arrival time for the winds will be Tuesday morning.

After Marco comes ashore as a hurricane, it will rapidly diminish to a tropical storm and then a tropical depression. NHC currently shows the remnants of the storm curling back into north Texas by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Space City Weather predicts, “Most of the winds and heavy rainfall should remain to the east and north of the center, we do not anticipate severe conditions in the Houston region from Marco.”

Laura May Now Be Larger Threat to Houston Area

Overnight the cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Laura shifted west toward east Texas. The most likely track is currently right up the Texas/Louisiana Border. Laura is currently a tropical storm, projected to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the central Gulf coast.

NOAA predicts Laura could dump 4-6 inches of rain on the Houston Area.

As with Marco, NHC predicts a 60-70% chance of tropical-storm-force winds for the Houston Area.

The most likely arrival time for Laura’s winds in the Houston Area will be Wednesday evening.

Net: Laura could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week.

Uncertainty Remains So Continue to Monitor Forecasts

Considerable uncertainty remains about both storms. Models disagree over where Laura will make landfall. They range from Corpus Christi to New Orleans at the moment. Space City Weather points out that “For the National Hurricane Center, the average track position error at 3.5 days before landfall is about 120 miles, which is a little bit greater than the distance between downtown Houston and the Texas-Louisiana border on Interstate 10.”

So what should you do? Continue to monitor the progress of both storms throughout the week at Hurricanes.gov or on your favorite weather channel.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2020 based on input from Space City Weather, the National Hurricane Center, and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

1090 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Lastest NHC Forecasts Show Marco, Laura Slamming Louisiana

Updates on Tropical Storm Marco and Laura issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. EDT show both storms aiming toward Louisiana at this point. That doesn’t mean the Houston Area is out of the woods. The forecasts has changed four times since yesterday. Here’s the latest from the NHC.

Latest Cones of Uncertainty for Marco and Laura

*Houston is now only on the fringe of the cone of uncertainty for Marco.*

*Even though forecasts for Laura have been shifting steadily west, NHC now shows Houston outside the cone of uncertainty.*

Note, however, the images above do not indicate the width of the storms, just their potential tracks up to five days out. The width of the cone indicates the degree of uncertainty about the track.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Laura and 90 miles (150 km) from the center of Marco.

Intensity and Rainfall Predictions

Forecasters predicted Marco will become a hurricane tonight or Sunday, and remain at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday.

They also predict that Marco will dump 1 to 3 inches (isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches) on the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. This rainfall, they say, may result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional rainfall and wind impacts by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.

Wind Predictions

*We could feel the arrival of tropical storm force winds from Marco around mid-day on Monday.*

*Tropical storm force winds from Laura could be felt in Houston on Wednesday morning.*

*However, there’s only a 20-30% chance we will feel 40 mph winds from either Laura or Marco*.

Rainfall and Flooding Predictions

At present, NOAA shows Marco dumping 2-6 inches of rain, mainly over the states east of us. (See below).

*As of 4:50 EDT Saturday, NOAA is predicting less than an inch of rainfall for the Houston Area.*

NOAA has not issued rainfall predictions yet for Laura. However, NOAA does give the Houston region a marginal (5%) chance of flash flooding from Marco.

*As of 4:50 pm Saturday, NOAA predicts Houston has only a 5% chance of flash flooding from the storms.*

Better Safe Than Sorry; How to Stay Up to Date

Forecasters for Laura emphasize that the second storm could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.

NHC advises monitoring the progress of both storms several times a day until they pass. The NHC has started issuing updates every two to three hours for the duration of the storms.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns, “While the situation for SE TX is looking better this afternoon, it would be important to maintain a close watch on this system in the event it weakens significantly and the system becomes more steered by the low level flow.” That could shift it back in the direction of Houston.

You can also sign up for text alerts from Ready Harris: Text MARCO to 888777 for emergency alerts. Better safe than sorry.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020

1089 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Commissioners to Consider Purchase of Woodridge Village Again in Tuesday Meeting

Harris County published the agenda for next Tuesday’s Commissioners Court meeting. Once again, the purchase of Woodridge Village is on the agenda. The Perry Homes property contributed to flooding in Elm Grove Village twice last year, after the developer clear cut the land but did not yet install detention. Now, even with detention installed, the amount will likely be insufficient to forestall future floods because the engineers calculated the volume needed based on pre-Atlas 14 rainfall estimates. The new Atlas-14 estimates are about 40% higher than the old ones.

Since the 2019 floods, both the City and anxious Elm Grove residents have been urging the county to purchase the property and turn it into a regional floodwater detention facility to help protect homes in the Taylor Gully Watershed.

Commissioners first considered the purchase in April. When they could not reach agreement then, the issue resurfaced in several other meetings, but Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis kept heaping new conditions on the deal. First he wanted the City of Houston to pay for half the purchase price. Then, half the construction cost of building additional detention. The the City also had to adopt Atlas 14. And the City had to upgrade multiple development regulations to become consistent with County regs. And the City couldn’t just promise to do those things in an interlocal agreement. Future tense. They had to actually do them. Present tense.

Agenda Item 1T Under County Engineer

Item 1T Reads:

Recommendation that the court find a public necessity exists for the Flood Control District to purchase Tracts G503-06-00-01-001.0 and G503-06-00-01-002.0 in Montgomery County from Figure Four Partners, Ltd., in the amount of $14,019,316 plus closing costs for the Woodridge Village stormwater detention basin, and that the Real Property Division Manager or Assistant Division Manager be authorized to sign any agreements or closing documents associated with this transaction.

Documentation attached to the agenda item mentions the previous conditions put on the sale, but also focuses on “public necessity.” Declaring a property a public necessity is necessary before the county could purchase it. Even if commissioners approve this agenda item, they would need to revisit the issue to ensure the City has complied with all conditions the commissioners previously imposed on the sale.

The letter from the County Engineer to commissioners also proposes an inter-local agreement, which Commissioner Ellis previously objected to.

Status of Perry Detention Ponds

Excavation of all five detention ponds on the Perry site is complete, although some finish word remains on N3. Contractors finished S1 and S2 earlier this year. Since then, they have also virtually completed N1, N2 and N3. All pictures below were taken within the last two weeks.

*N1 in the northwest corner of Woodridge.*

*N2 in the middle part of the western perimeter.*

*N3 along the eastern border of the site.*

Together, these three ponds comprise 77% of the total acre/feet of detention on the site.

The newly excavated increase of capacity will help protect Elm Grove residents in rainfalls up to 12.17 inches. But complying with the new Atlas-14 regulations would require protection from a 17.3 inch rain in 24 hours. That’s about 40% more. Hence the need to purchase the property before it is developed into homesites.

TD 14 could test LJA’s design of the ponds when the tropical system makes landfall next Tuesday.

Latest Update on Tropics

At 7 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center issued updates on the two tropical systems that threaten the northern Gulf. Both could affect the Texas/Louisiana area on Tuesday. That should be around the exact time commissioners are scheduled to meet virtually. I’m assuming the meeting could be postponed if the storm turns into an emergency.

I’ve heard rainfall estimates ranging from 3 to 18 inches for the storm(s). Here’s what the storms are currently doing according to the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Depression 14 is currently dumping three to six inches of rain in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

Tropical Storm Laura is also expected to dump three to six inches of rain in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba, with isolated totals up to eight inches.

NHC predicts both storms will intensify into hurricanes in coming days.

*Only this morning, the cone was centered on Mississippi and Alabama.*

*Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center, but the storm is projected to intensify into a hurricane before making landfall.*

If these two storms merge, things could get interesting. Compared to the last two days, the cone of uncertainty for TS Laura keeps shifting to the west. And its wind field now includes the Houston Area.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2020

1088 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Not Since 1933 Have Two Hurricanes Hit the Gulf Simultaneously

As of 11 a.m. Friday morning, we have Tropical Depression 14 and Tropical Storm Laura poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters predict both could intensify into Category 1 hurricanes. Not many living people can remember the last time we had two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist found only one other instance. That was in 1933 when two tropical systems made landfall near the Florida panhandle and near Brownsville, Tx.

That said, the National Hurricane Center updated forecasts for TD14 and Laura at 11 a.m. Here are the current positions of the storms.

TD 14 is the most imminent threat. It is currently in the Bay of Honduras battering the Bay Islands.

TD 13 intensified into a tropical storm overnight and was given the name Laura. It is near the windward islands, heading NW toward Cuba and Florida. The big question: Will land interaction weaken the storm? At this hour, some models show it dissipating. Others show it intensifying into a hurricane.

Current Forecast for TD 14

*The Lake Houston Area could start feeling tropical storm force winds (greater than 39mph) by next Monday night.* *The current most likely timing for the arrival of TS (40mph) winds would be around 11:00 p.m. Monday to 2:00 a.m. Tuesday.*

*Current forecasts show the storm briefly intensifying into a hurricane and then diminishing to a tropical storm as it approaches the upper Texas Coast between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.*

*NHC says it’s too early to determine exact impacts to the upper Texas coast. Too much uncertainty remains.*

Rainfall Potential

Last night, Channel 2 KPRC news predicted the possibility of 12 – 18 inches of rain out of this storm. That may be high.

At this time, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts the storm will drop 3 – 5 inches of rain, mainly to the east of I-45, with some higher amounts possible.

“Grounds are very dry over the region, so the area soils will be able to handle some rainfall…at least a few inches…before significant run-off begins,” says Lindner. “Confidence is not high on the track and that will in the end determine where the maximum rain falls…with most of the heavy rain falling along and east of the track of the center.”

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is only predicting a 50-60% chance of rain for next Tuesday.

The lower estimates may give hope to the people in Elm Grove who flooded last year. The detention ponds now in place on Woodridge Village were designed to handle that much rain. But if we got 18″…

At this time, the SJRA is not releasing any water. Lake Conroe is at 199.84 feet. Lake Houston is down about three-quarters of a foot from its normal level.

Tropical Storm Laura

*The outer tropical storm force winds could arrive in Louisiana by Tuesday morning next week. That’s about 12 hours after TD-14 arrives on the Texas coast.*

Laura will likely intensify into a hurricane by the come it strikes the eastern Gulf coast.

Some Interaction Between Two Storms is Possible

Some models indicate interaction between TD 14 and Laura. That could slow TD 14’s forward motion over the Gulf. However, at this time, it is unclear whether Laura will have any influence on TD 14.

Preparation

Remember: Chance favors the prepared. Make sure you have fresh batteries. Stock your supplies. Fill your gas tank. Refill your prescriptions.

Check weather forecasts at least two or three times a day.

They get the information first.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020

1088 days since Hurricane Harvey