October 2020 Regional Flood Mitigation Update

Flood mitigation is a complex process with hundreds of moving parts, all dependent on each other. When you focus intensely on the pieces, periodically it helps to review how they fit together. Only when you do this can you see progress toward your goals. In that spirit, I created this presentation. It has a Kingwood slant, but really addresses the whole Lake Houston Area. Everything connects.

What Caused Flooding

First, let’s look at what caused the flooding during Harvey and other recent storms…apart from record rainfalls.

The rain fell on a landscape that was ill-prepared the handle it.

Look at flooding like a process engineer. There’s always a bottleneck in the system somewhere between the sky and Galveston Bay. Both local and regional issues contributed to the magnitude of the Harvey and Imelda disasters.

Underestimating Rainfall Meant Underpreparing

When we built communities, such as Kingwood, we underestimated the amount of rainfall we could get. After four so-called 500 year rains in five years, we’re now working with higher rainfall precipitation frequency estimates (called Atlas 14). For this area, the 100-year rain is about 30-40% higher than the previous standard. That means floodplains will soon expand when new flood maps are released. Some people in the 500-year floodplain will find themselves in the 100-year. And people in the 100-year may find themselves in the floodway of rivers and streams. Unless we do something.

Lake Conroe Release Coincided with Downstream Peaks

On top of record rainfalls, during Harvey, the SJRA released water from Lake Conroe at a time that coincided with downstream peaks from other tributaries. The release by itself would have created the ninth largest flood in West Fork history. It comprised about one third of all the water coming down the West Fork.

Population Growth in MoCo

On top of that, Montgomery County has seen tremendous population growth in the last decade. Conroe was the fastest growing city in America in 2017 and is still #6. The county itself is the second fastest growing in the region.

Bad Development Practices

Combine the rapid growth in impervious cover with bad development practices and you are laying the groundwork for disaster. The bad development practices include lack of detention, clearcutting huge areas before detention is installed, and calculating detention for the old rainfall standards knowing that higher standards will soon go into effect.

Out-of-Control Sand Mining

To pave the way for all that development, we’ve seen a huge increase in sand mining upstream in the last 25 years. Before 2011, unregistered, bootleg operators went unregulated. But even those who are registered don’t follow common-sense regulations common in other states, which protect the environment and downstream residents. For instance, they mine so close to the river that dikes frequently fail. As a result, they have contributed to a greater than than natural buildup of sediment in our rivers. After Harvey, the US Army Corps of Engineers found that the West Fork was 90% blocked just downstream from River Grove Park.

But the biggest blockage was where the West Fork meets Lake Houston. There, sediment drops out of suspension as the water slows. The sediment built up for decades, forming a mouth bar that backed water up during Harvey and contributed to the flooding of thousands of homes and businesses.

Flood Gate Disparity

Another factor contributing to flooding: Lake Conroe can release water 15 times faster than Lake Houston. That makes it difficult to lower lake levels in advance of a major storm. Storms have a nasty habit of veering away at the last minute. The small gates on Lake Houston mean you have to start lowering the lake far in advance. That raises the risk of wasting precious water. Larger gates would make managing lake levels easier.

Ditches, Streams Filling In

Finally, sediment built up in more places than the San Jacinto. It has also built up in the ditches and streams that lead to the river. This reduces convenance within neighborhoods. There’s less room to store water in streams, so it backs up into storm sewers and streets, and can eventually flood homes.

Four-Part Solution

Montgomery County has now adopted Atlas-14, the new rainfall standard. And residents are pushing commissioners to close loopholes that let developers get away without building detention. Residents are also working with the TCEQ and TACA to adopt better sand mining practices.

But what can we do to remedy the damage already done? Leaders in the Lake Houston Area identified a four-part strategy and are working with the SJRA, City of Houston, Montgomery County and Harris County Flood Control to implement it. Elements include:

  • Increasing upstream detention to reduce the volume of water coming downstream during floods
  • Dredging the river to remove sediment dams that back water up
  • Increasing the number of gates on the Lake Houston Spillway to release water faster
  • Restoring or expanding ditches to handle more water

Let’s look at each of those in a little more detail.

Upstream Detention

The Humble/Kingwood area sits at the tip of a funnel. 535 square miles in a seven-county region drain into Lake Houston.

The San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study identified 16 potential detention projects to hold water back during major storms. However, they would cost roughly $3 billion to reduce damage by less than $1 billion. So that’s a stretch. FEMA evaluates projects based on their benefit/cost ratio.

The SJRA has already applied for a grant for a detention project on Caney Creek which empties into the east fork. But we also need something that can help offset releases from the Lake Conroe Dam on the West Fork. Next step: figure out the funding piece of the puzzle.

Dredging

We’ve already removed almost three million cubic yards of sediment from the West Fork. The third phase of West Fork dredging should wrap up shortly. But there’s still more work to do.

Luckily:

The slide below shows why we need additional dredging.

An 18-foot high underwater plateau exists between where the Army Corps stopped dredging on the West Fork and the FM1960 Bridge where scouring during Harvey reduced the channel depth.

The chart above shows the deepest part of the channel between those two areas. If left in place, this plateau will force flood water out of banks during floods. It will also trap sediment, negating the value of previous dredging efforts.

More Gates for Lake Houston

FEMA has conditionally approved up to approximately $50 million to increase the outflow capacity of Lake Houston. During Havey, the flow of water over the spillway was estimated at 11-13 feet. That’s reportedly higher than the flow over Niagra Falls.

The FEMA grant initially covers preliminary engineering and environmental surveys. If the benefit/cost ratio is positive, they will release the remainder of the funds for construction.

So far, engineers have identified five possible solutions. Each produces a different flood reduction benefit, but also comes with different costs and environmental issues.

The next step: to analyze the benefit/cost ratio of each and submit the results to FEMA.

We are six months into the first phase, scheduled to take a total of 18 months. Construction, if approved, will take another 18 months.

Ditch Restoration/Expansion

Harris County Flood Control District has studied area ditches for the last year or more. Results of their analyses are now complete.

In Kingwood, they identified nine projects and recommended two for immediate implementation that should improve drainage on a third tributary, Ben’s Branch.

Recommendations include expanding:

  • Kingwood Diversion Ditch to take water out of the Ben’s Branch watershed and also improve drainage from surrounding subdivisions from Woodland Hills down to the West Fork.
  • Taylor Gully – if a deal cannot be reached to purchase Woodridge Village and build a regional detention basin on it.

In addition, Flood Control and the City are looking at minor improvements to other ditches that back water up in places, for instance, at culverts under Kingwood Drive.

Goal: Restore 100-Year Level of Service

Engineers solving all these problems have a goal: to restore your home to what they call a 100-year level of service. That means if your home was built above the 100-year floodplain, it should not flood in a 100-year rain – based on new Atlas 14 standards. In places, sedimentation and upstream development have reduced the level of service to 2 years over time.

We need to restore the capacity of ditches, streams, the river and lake to handle 100-year rains. So we can get water from the sky to the Bay without it going through your living room.

While progress may feel painfully slow, many improvements have already been made.

For instance, in addition to dredging, Flood Control has divided Ben’s Branch up into five projects. Three are already complete:

A fourth project, to restore Ben’s Branch from Kingwood Drive north to Rocky Woods should start soon. And a fifth, to restore conveyance between the YMCA and the River, will follow.

How You Can Help

You can help by remaining engaged. Without public pressure, it’s easy for elected officials to ignore these problems and defer expensive solutions. Keep flood mitigation a high priority. Floods can strike at any time. We had four tropical systems barely miss us this year.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/27/2020

1155 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 404 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Above-Water Portion of Mouth Bar Could Be Gone by Christmas

At the current rate that crews are removing sand from the West Fork San Jacinto Mouth Bar, the remainder of the above-water portion of this once-behemoth sand bar could be gone by Christmas. See the two pictures below. The first taken after Harvey and the second taken today.

These two shots show the West Fork mouth bar two weeks after Harvey and today…more than three years later.

Much Yet to Dredge

Of course, even when the above water portion of the Mouth Bar is removed, that will still leave a huge portion below the surface. However, all progress is welcome.

Like an iceberg, most of a sand bar exists below the waterline. Photo taken 10/26/2020. I can’t say with certainty that this is submerged sand, or water stirred up by dredging. It seems too uniform to be the latter. Compare the picture below looking toward the WLHP bridge from a slightly different position and note how irregular the stirred-up sediment looks. Also note that the picture above was taken upstream from the current dredging.

At the start of October, the above-water (sub-aerial) extent of the mouth bar was down to the width of one excavator. Two excavators are now working toward the middle from each end. See below.

Looking WNW toward the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge and Kings Harbor. Taken 10/26/2020.
From the wet mark on this excavator’s arm, it looks as though they are excavating up to 10 feet below the waterline. The 10-foot estimate closely agrees with the profile chart below. Taken 10/26/2020.

Like an Iceberg, Most of a Sand Bar Exists Below Water

That’s significant progress given what we started with. But much sand remains below the surface.

Tim Garfield and RD Kissling, two leading geologists now retired from one of the world’s largest oil companies, mapped the depth of the river using sonar and depth poles. They found an underwater plateau exists in this region of the river. See chart below.

The blue line represents the water surface. The gold line indicates the deepest part of the channel as you move downstream from the WLHP bridge to the FM1960 bridge. Numbers on the left scale indicate water depth. Numbers on the bottom scale indicate distance in feet downstream from the WLHP bridge.

Plans for Next Phase Still Not Revealed

FEMA has approved dredging another million cubic yards. And Dan Huberty’s amendment to SB500 in the last legislature dedicated $30 million for dredging the West Fork Mouth Bar. The City is drawing up plans, but they have not been announced yet. The last time I talked to Stephen Costello about this, he said the City was leaning toward dredging a channel somewhere south of the mouth bar. But many details remained to be worked out, such as:

  • Method of dredging (hydraulic vs. mechanical)
  • Exact location
  • Channel width
  • Finding qualified contractors
  • Bidding
  • Determining a suitable placement area, etc.

More news when its available.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/26/2020

1154 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

New Drone Shots Reveal Need for Better Flood Control in Liberty County

Since June, I’ve posted about problems in the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County. Among them: the washout of FM1010 where it crosses over Rocky Branch. Authorities have closed the busy road which provides access to Colony Ridge for three years, forcing tens of thousands of residents to seek alternate access routes, such as FM1485 and FM2090.

However, it’s difficult to see all the damage. So today I took a drone and captured some previously unseen details.

Colony Ridge drainage ditch leading to Rocky Branch contributed to washing out FM1010 at far end of ditch.

Lack of Functional Detention Capacity Likely Contributed to Washout

The damage is likely the result of inadequate, poorly engineered, or poorly maintained detention. Another contributing factor: a steep drop in elevation as water leaves the massive ditch (see above) in Colony Ridge and descends through a wooded area toward FM1010. That drop accelerated more water than should have been traveling down Rocky Branch, an East Fork San Jacinto tributary. As a result, floodwaters swept trees and other debris downstream.

One Thing Leads to Another

The debris:

  • Clogged culverts under the road…
  • Then, when the roadbed became a dam…
  • …Water churned through the roadbed next to the culverts…
  • …And deposited more “beaver dams” downstream…
  • …that, in turn, contributed to the flooding of surrounding homes.

Years of Neglect Still Ignored

Amazingly, no one in Liberty County corrected these problems after Harvey. As a result, many homes flooded again in 2019, during heavy downpours on May 7th and September 19th. The problems still have not been fixed. See the pictures below. I took them this afternoon.

Just yesterday, I had lunch with a couple who were considering moving to Liberty County because they were seeking a quieter lifestyle. I told them about this story. They are reconsidering.

FM1010 Washout at Rocky Branch has not been repaired for more than three years. Note flood debris clogged in culvert. Also note straps around logs!
“Beaver dam” just downstream from culverts is building up and up, contributing to additional flooding.

Not All Business is Good Business

Colony Ridge has grown into the world’s largest trailer park in less than a decade. It brought more than its fair share of problems:

A hard lesson for some people to learn is that not all business is good business. Lax enforcement of regulations allowed Colony Ridge to grow out of control. Now county commissioners have a nightmare on their hands, cannot fix their problems, and cannot enforce their own regulations.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/25/2020

1153 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

It’s Official; Zeta, Yet Another Tropical Storm Forms

Hurricane Watches issued for eastern and northern coasts of the Yucatan peninsula.

(Sunday 8am, October 25, 2020) The tropical depression over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has continued to slowly become better organized. Satellite and hurricane hunter aircraft have determined that winds increased to near 40kts. Overall Zeta has not moved much in the last 12 hours. However, Zeta should approach the Gulf Coast Tuesday night or Wednesday. It will bring storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. The storm poses no immediate threat to the Houston Area.

Track

Zeta will have little forward motion for the next 12 hours; steering flow is weak. However, on Monday mid-level high pressure will begin to build westward letting Zeta turn NW and WNW, and to increase forward motion. Global model guidance is in good agreement on this track. Zeta will then enter the southern Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front will push south and east across the Great Plains by mid-week. and turn Zeta north and likely northeast toward the central or eastern US Gulf coast. However, much uncertainty exists on how sharply Zeta will turn. The storm could make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

Intensity 

Overall Zeta is in a favorable environment for development. Zeta could approach hurricane intensity as it nears the Yucatan. Once in the Gulf of Mexico conditions continue to look favorable for intensification. Zeta will likely regain or maintain hurricane intensity.

However, as Zeta begins to turn northward toward the central Gulf, cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing vertical wind shear should weaken the system. No one knows at present how quickly weakening may occur.

A slight chance exists that tropical storm force winds could extend into areas east of Houston and Galveston Bay.
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 13 shows Zeta’s intensity building in the NW Caribbean.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/25/2020 based on information from Jeff Lindner, HCFCD, and the National Hurricane Center

1153 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Tropical Depression Forms over NW Caribbean; Threatens U.S. Gulf

The tropical wave in the NW Caribbean that I posted about this morning has become better organized. It now has a broad low-level center southwest of the Cayman Islands. Low- and mid-level centers are currently not aligned, but conditions favor eventual alignment. There are numerous curved bands and weak to moderate scattered convection near the low level center.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205453.shtml?cone#contents

Track

Like so many other storms this season, this one should veer east before it hits Houston. TD 28 will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. But an approaching cold front over TX will turn it toward the east. Major global models agree on the track with the exception of the European model which brings it in over Louisiana. This model has had a significant west bias this hurricane season with Laura, Sally, and Delta. Other models take it toward the central or eastern US Gulf coast from SC LA to the FL panhandle. 

Intensity 

Conditions are favorable for development with plenty of moisture and warm sea-surface conditions. NHC forecasts a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. After Tuesday, it may weaken as the system lifts northward over the Gulf of Mexico. Similar to Delta, with an incoming trough from the west, an expansion of the wind field will be possible over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Afternoon satellite image on 10/24/2020
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 13 shows intensity.

Threats

The system should approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

At the present, this is not a threat to Texas. For up to the minute information, visit the National Hurricane Center.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 5 pm on 10/24/2020 based on info from HCFCD and the NHC

1152 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Great Lakes Dredge and Dock Moving Corporate HQ to Houston From Chicago

Great Lakes Dredge and Dock is moving its corporate headquarters to Houston from Oak Brook, Illinois. Oak Brook is a western suburb of Chicago.

Company that Dredged West Fork

Great Lakes spent more than a year dredging the San Jacinto West Fork in 2018 and 2019 for the Army Corps of Engineers.

The Great Lakes dredge that liberated River Grove Park from a sandbar more than 10 feet high and a quarter mile long.

The company has many other interests in the Houston Area and the central Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi to Louisiana. The move puts the company closer to key customers and growing markets, especially along the Gulf Coast and Mississippi River. The company already has regional offices in Jacksonville, FL and Staten Island, New York.

The company deepens ports, maintains waterways, renourishes beaches and restores barrier islands.

About the Houston HQ

The Houston headquarters, scheduled to open in early 2021 with its executive leadership team, will be staffed gradually over the next 12 months. It is initially searching for 20,000 square feet of office space in the Energy Corridor, between the Galleria and Beltway 8. The company will maintain a business and operations support center in the Oak Brook area.

The company said the move also will allow it to leverage long-term relationships with the Center for Dredging Studies at Texas A&M University, Louisiana State University and other universities that feature coastal resilience and natural infrastructure initiatives.

Landmark Projects Throughout US

Great Lakes has been involved in the development and construction of many well-known landmarks. In the Great Lakes’ region, that has included Chicago’s Navy Pier and Michigan Avenue Bridge; straightening and reversing the flow of the Chicago River; Northerly Island, a 91-acre peninsula along Chicago’s Lake Michigan; and the deepening the St. Lawrence Seaway between the U.S. and Canada.

Elsewhere, it has completed deepening projects in almost every port in the country and worked on important infrastructure projects, such as the massive container terminals in the ports of Los Angles and Long Beach and the Fort McHenry Tunnel that carries interstate traffic underneath the Baltimore Harbor. 

Recent Texas and Louisiana Projects

Among its recent projects in Texas and neighboring states: deepening the Corpus Christi Ship Channel from the Gulf of Mexico to Harbor Island; maintenance dredging of Houston Ship Channel; dredging for liquefied natural gas facilities in Corpus Christi and Cameron Parish, La.; restoring Louisiana’s Whiskey Island, which helps protect Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes from storm surge; restoring barrier islands to protect coastal Mississippi; and building the barrier berms that protected Louisiana from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Works in Almost Every Port in County

Elsewhere, it has completed deepening projects in almost every port in the country and worked on important infrastructure projects, such as the massive container terminals in the ports of Los Angles and Long Beach and the Fort McHenry Tunnel that carries interstate traffic underneath the Baltimore Harbor. 

The company is the largest provider of dredging services in the US. It has a fleet of more than 200 vessels.

Welcome to Houston!

It will be good to have such a valuable resource in Houston. Especially as sediment builds up in our rivers and lakes to the point where it can no longer be ignored. Great Lakes’ expanded presence will make the Houston dredging market even more competitive.

For more information on Great Lakes Dredge and Dock, visit their website.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/24/2020

1152 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New Tropical System Has 90% Chance of Developing in Gulf

A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the NW Caribbean Sea. However, at THIS TIME, it poses no threat to southeast Texas.

Could Become Tropical Storm Zeta

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “A slow moving tropical wave over the NW Caribbean Sea is becoming better organized. A tropical system will likely form in the next 24 hours. The system will move generally slowly toward the NW over the next 48 hours and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.”

Conditions currently favor some development, but upper level winds over the Gulf of Mexico may become hostile for additional development by early to mid next week. The overall track is in the general direction of the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 4-5 days. 

Too Early To Predict Landfall

It’s too early to tell where this will make landfall. But NOAA’s satellite images show it definitely becoming better organized.

See depression in lower right. Source: National Hurricane Center. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
This shows circulation starting to form. Note the bands of clouds starting to dance around each other.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in a day or two. If it becomes a storm, it would be Zeta.

Most models currently take the storm east of us.

What Climatology Says

This is a reminder that we still have five weeks left in the 2020 hurricane season.

In October, storms are more likely to track east. Source: NOAA Climatology.

At this time of year, storms are most likely to track toward Florida, but as you can see above, the western Gulf is also a likely target.

Posted by Bob Rehak on October 24, 2020 with thanks to Jeff Lindner and the NHC

1152 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Disaster Recovery Disaster: Part 1

After Harvey, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) made $1.3 billion in disaster recovery funds available for housing assistance to the City of Houston through the Texas General Land Office (GLO). The City kicked off several disaster recovery programs with great fanfare in January of 2019. However, in almost two years, the City has only helped 1.4% of eligible applicants for assistance and an estimated 0.5% of those who flooded without insurance. The second figure includes flooded homeowners who could have applied, but didn’t.

City of Houston Housing and Community Development on January 14, 2019. Mayor Turner said, “Thousands of Houstonians who were affected by Hurricane Harvey have been waiting for this day.” Most are still waiting.

Programs Announced in January 2019 Quickly Fall Behind Schedule

The programs were primarily designed to repair and reconstruct single- and multi-family homes, and to reimburse owners for repairs they made. However, almost from the outset, the program failed to reach its own goals and has fallen progressively farther behind.

A HUD audit in November of 2019 panned the City for failure to staff the program adequately. It also expressed concerns about the City’s lack of transparency, not posting plan documents online, not bidding contracts competitively, failure to follow HUD rules, and failure to meet objectives.

GLO Attempts to Help Rebuffed by City

The GLO, which is responsible for overseeing the program and ultimately for the money itself, sent a “strike force” to assist the City, train employees and get the programs back on track. However, the Director of the City’s Housing and Community Development Department, which conducts these programs, told the GLO’s strike team they were not welcome and told them to leave the Department’s office, according to Brittany Eck, a GLO spokesperson.

As the City fell further behind schedule in 2020, the GLO tried to take over some of the programs. Eck says GLO wanted to help the City focus on those where it had more success. However, the City also rebuffed those efforts. The City filed a lawsuit to prevent the GLO from taking back the programs. Ultimately, HUD stepped in and approved an “Action Plan Amendment” that resulted in cancelation of the City’s contract.

The City still pushed back. The Mayor claimed the program was on track to achieve its objectives, despite a rapidly approaching December 31, 2020 deadline for the reimbursement program.

Other programs for reconstruction, repair and rehab expire in 2024. But it takes time to design, permit, bid and construct homes. And it takes even more time to get approvals through the City, GLO and HUD. So…

According to the GLO, even the 2024 deadline is in jeopardy at this time.

Reimbursement Program May Come Back to City

The GLO reportedly may give the reimbursement program back to the City. With only two months left before the deadline, GLO doesn’t have time to get program changes approved through HUD, transfer files, and still reimburse flood victims who paid out of pocket for reconstruction.

But it’s unclear whether the City will commit to meeting all of the GLO’s performance benchmarks and deadlines. No one at the City will comment publicly. Eck said no commitments had yet been made, but might come as early as the end of today.

Reasons for Clawback of Some Programs

We’ve all heard the news reports about the City’s performance or lack thereof. But aside from the small number of homes completed, reports don’t go into much detail. Eck, the GLO’s spokesperson, spent hours explaining the complexities behind published numbers.

First, let me say, it’s difficult to compare the State’s numbers with the City’s. The two entities refer to programs differently. And they sometimes reflect different time periods or different stages of completion.

Plus, the City generally reports numbers for itself that are higher than the GLO’s numbers for the City. However, the differences are so small in the grand scheme of things that they get lost in rounding. So to eliminate charges of political bias, I have simply accepted the City’s numbers in almost all cases for the analysis below, except where the City does not supply numbers.

High-Level Findings

The deeper you dig, the more several things become clear:

Let’s address the first point and cover the others in later posts.

Application Process Started with Pre-qualification Survey

First, you need to understand the two-step application process. First, the City conducted a survey to screen applicants. Second, those who appeared to qualify were invited to apply for aid.

21,156 households took the survey. Of those, the City estimated 16,651 qualified for some kind of aid. See the screen capture below taken from the City’s website.

Source: City of Houston on 10/23/2020. For a high res PDF, click here.

Many Still Waiting for Invite to Submit Application

Many families who qualified are still waiting to be invited to submit an application. The last “situation and pipeline” report posted on the City’s website shows 6,541 households “Pending invitation” as of 8/31/2020 (see page 6).

City’s Self-Reported Results

The City claims that it reimbursed 82 households a total of $1.455 million. That works out to $18,903 per household. Neither the total nor the household numbers seem large for a program almost 2 years old and a disaster as large as Harvey. $1.5 million is less than a third of the $5 million that the City is paying vendor ICF for “Outreach , Intake and Case Management Services.”

On the right side of the diagram above, the City also says that it sent out “Notices to Proceed with Construction” for another 149 homeowners. Those notices covered almost another $32 million. Those average $214,765 per household. But construction has not yet finished on all of those.

How Grants to Date Compare With Need

Here’s a link to Harris County Flood Control’s final report on Hurricane Harvey. On Page 13, it says:

  • 154,170 homes flooded in the county
  • 64% did not have flood insurance
  • So that’s roughly 100,000 homes without flood insurance (a major qualification for HUD grants). 

The City has half the population of the county. So, let’s assume that approximately 50,000 households flooded in the City that could have theoretically applied for assistance. But according to the City graphic above, only 21,000 households took the survey. And the City says 16,651 of those were eligible (about a third of flooded homes without insurance). 

But regardless, if you accept the City numbers, they have helped 231 families so far (82 + 149) out of 16,651 eligible survey respondents. And that doesn’t even include another 30,000 families that didn’t take the survey!

So, in almost two years, the City has only helped 1.4% of eligible survey respondents. And roughly 0.5% of those who flooded without insurance.

Calculated from data supplied by City of Houston and Harris County Flood Control District

$800 Million in Disaster Relief Remains Uncommitted At This Point

When you add in the number of projects in the pipeline (identified and under contract), the percentages look somewhat better. However, that cannot obscure the fact that the reimbursement program will expire in two months, and almost $800 million remains uncommitted (see circle diagram below). Now the City did not allocate all of that for reimbursing people who fixed their own homes. But they did allocate more than $400 million for homeowner assistance (see table on right below).

City of Houston self-reported statistics as of 10/21/2020.

This PDF shows a summary status report dated 10/15/2020. It provides additional insight into the various types of programs on the right.

City Has Awarded Less than 10% of Projections It Made 16 Months Ago

HUD approved the GLO’s third-amended state-action plan on June 13, 2019.

By the City’s own projections at the time, it should have expended $261 million by now ($1.275 billion minus $1.014 billion). However, the GLO says the City has only drawn down $24.6 million, according to Eck. That’s less than 10% of the projection the City made 16 months ago.

STATE ACTION PLAN, PAGE 254

The GLO says that the City has pushed deadlines back month after month, always using the excuse that they’re right on the cusp of turning over a large number of applications for approval.

Future Aid At Stake

Sources familiar with how HUD works indicate that non-performance on this contract could jeopardize future HUD aid to the City.

Meanwhile, I know one applicant for reimbursement who completed the City’s survey the very first day it was available. Her application still has not been processed. But, she says, the City hopes to work on it soon! That’s better than the 6,541 people still waiting for the City to invite them to submit an application.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/23/2020

1151 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

How Loss of Wetlands Led to War

In three years of writing about flooding, this is one of the most dramatic case studies I have seen about the value of wetlands. It starts with a developer clearing wetlands and ends with the developer at war with a neighboring town.

Wetlands as Protectors

Michael Shrader lived in a modest home in Plum Grove in Liberty County. It was an idyllic, rural lifestyle in many ways. He did tech work remotely while raising animals on his small plot of land near the East Fork of the San Jacinto and Maple Branch. Shrader never flooded for the first 29 years he lived in Plum Grove despite living on a creek. Not in 1994. Not in Allison. Not in Rita. And not in Ike.

Forests filled with wetlands surrounded him. Water ponded during heavy rains. Much of it soaked in and was absorbed by tree roots. The creeks ran clear.

Before Colony Ridge

In this 2008 Google Earth image, you can see the vibrant greens. And if you look closely enough on a desktop display, you can even see the ponds and wetlands east of FM1010.

Note area east (right) of FM1010.

For those reading on smaller displays, here’s the same image, but with data from the US Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory superimposed.

The bright, solid greens represent wetlands in the national inventory. Superimposition courtesy of Michael Shrader.

Then Came the Bulldozers

In 2016, the developer of Colony Ridge started clearing land and replacing wetlands with ditches that fed into Maple Branch. It runs right behind Shrader’s home. As the developer filled in more and more of the wetlands, water started getting higher in the creek after every rain, according to Shrader. Harvey, May 7th, Imelda: those were the high-water marks. And the low points in Shrader’s life. He flooded all three times.

By last year, the developer had replaced virtually all the wetlands by this.

By 2/23/19, most of the wetlands had been turned into streets with ditches in the world’s largest trailer park. Shrader lives on a stream that cuts across the NW portion of the grid.

Since the satellite image above was taken, even more forests and wetlands farther east and north have been replaced by what is now the world’s largest trailer park.

Eastern area in June, 2020.
Slash and burn development practices at Colony Ridge. Photo June 2020. Note how contractors are draining wetland area on left.

Lives Disrupted

With the wetlands gone, Shrader’s house flooded in 2017 during Harvey (admittedly an extreme event), and twice in 2019. Not only did his house flood, so did most of Plum Grove, including the City Hall. Now, Shrader says, many homes are vacant.

The fence below, immediately downstream from the Camino Real Subdivision in Colony Ridge, was pushed over three times by the increased flow of floodwaters coming down Maple Branch. The owners of the red-roofed house bought this property just before the first of three floods.

Flooded Plum Grove home near Maple Branch and Colony Ridge. Owners stopped repairing the fence after the second flood.

The Domino Effect

To make matters worse:

Soon, Hollywood screenwriters will develop screenplays based on the Plum Grove experience and pitch them as “the next Erin Brokovich.”

Eroded drainage ditch in Colony Ridge that blew out FM1010 at far end. Three years after Harvey, the road still had not been repaired, much to the dismay of residents.
FM1010, one of the main roads into and out of the development, destroyed by out-of-control stormwater. The loss of this road has led to massive traffic jams on alternate access routes, such as FM2090.

Sadly, a little more respect for Mother Nature could have easily prevented all that trouble for the developer. One wonders whether the engineers and environmental consultants whom he hired to obtain permits served him well.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/22/2020

1050 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 398 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

HCFCD Recommends Expanding Diversion Ditch as First Priority in Kingwood

At the Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis meeting tonight, HCFCD recommended that expansion of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch should be the community’s highest priority.

The Diversion Ditch project would help address several potential problems. Expanding it would remove 62 structures from inundation areas and another 586 structures would benefit from improved local drainage. In addition, the project:

  • Can divert floodwater from Ben’s Branch, which will be a much more complicated project, taking more time.
  • Has a 300-foot right-of-way, of which only half is being used
  • Has bridges that already span the entire 300 feet.
  • Will help carry floodwaters from rapidly growing south Montgomery County.

History of Diversion Ditch

In the early days of Kingwood, Friendswood Development Company built the Diversion Ditch to reduce water flowing into Ben’s Branch. But since then, upstream development and larger rains have stressed the capacity of both Ben’s Branch AND the Diversion Ditch. Engineers estimate that peak flows have doubled since 1985.

Most of Ben’s Branch is Natural Channel

Ben’s Branch cuts diagonally through the heart of Kingwood. See red lines below. More than half its length – between Woodland Hills and Rocky Woods Drive is natural channel. Widening it will be complicated and take much time.

Red Line indicates approximate path of Ben’s Branch through Kingwood.

Ben’s Branch Now at 2-Year Level of Service

However, areas on both sides of Ben’s Branch are threatened by flooding as you can see in the image below from FEMA’s Flood Hazard Viewer.

Ben’s Branch once had a 100-year level of service, meaning it had enough carrying capacity to prevent homes from flooding in everything but a 100-year rain. Models based on new Atlas-14 rainfall probability frequencies indicate that the channel’s capacity is now down to a 2-year level of service. That means it will flood in minor rains, exactly as St. Martha School did last year.

Worse yet, Ben’s Branch has decreased to a 2-year level of service throughout its length.

HCFCD Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis
Source: Fema’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Cross-hatched equals floodway, aqua = 100 year floodplain, brown = 500-year floodplain. Floodplains shown above are based on pre-Atlas-14 rainfall probability statistics. An Atlas-14 hundred-year rain is about 30-40% higher than the old hundred-year rain.

When flood maps are updated based on Atlas-14 statistics, those floodplains will likely expand…unless we do something to handle more floodwater before then.

However, Ben’s Branch will not move to preliminary engineering right away.

How to Protect Against Bigger Rains and More Upstream Development

The Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis sought to understand what we need to do to restore a 100-year level of service to all ditches and streams based on Atlas 14. Of the 19 ditches and streams studied, nine need improvement. The level of service for some, including Ben’s Branch, has been reduced to 2 years.

Expanding the Diversion Ditch is the fastest way to take pressure off of Ben’s Branch.

The Diversion Ditch intersects Ben’s Branch at the new St. Martha Church. It then flows south to Deer Ridge Park and then winds through River Grove Park. See the white line below.

Kingwood Diversion ditch (white line) intersects Ben’s Branch near the new St. Martha Church.

Expansion Capacity Already Built into Diversion Ditch

Engineers foresaw the day when Kingwood would need more drainage capacity due to upstream development in Montgomery County. They built the Kingwood Diversion Ditch to handle the extra stormwater. They also made the bridges over the diversion ditch wider than they needed at the time. Finally, they dedicated a flood easement on both sides of the ditch that was wider than they needed, so they could expand the ditch later without encroaching on neighboring properties. Here’s how it looks from the air.

Looking north across Northpark Drive toward Bens Branch, which cuts diagonally from left to right through the middle of the frame. Note the ample clearance under the bridge and the wide shoulders of the ditch. St. Martha Church is in the upper left.
Looking south toward Kingwood Drive at the Diversion Ditch. King’s Mill is on right in foreground.

Both Kings Mill and Kings Manor now drain into the Diversion Ditch. But they came long AFTER Diversion Ditch construction. Other new upstream developments that drain into the Diversion Ditch and Ben’s Branch include Brooklyn Trails and Woodridge Forest, both in Montgomery County.

As a result, the Diversion Ditch itself has decreased to a 2- to a 25-year level of service in places. However, it still offers a 100-year level of service in others.

Looking NE toward Deer Ridge Park from over Hamblen Road. A corner of Deer Ridge Estates is on the left. The diversion ditch cuts in front of the park (upper left to lower right) and goes into an area largely undeveloped on its way to the river (out of frame to the right).

Impact on River Grove Park

Once the Diversion Ditch passes through the area shown in the photo above, it enters wetlands and winds through River Grove Park. Two questions arise. How do we protect, from additional flow:

  • The park?
  • People downstream on the West Fork?

The first question is simple: split the flow in two. Take part through the undeveloped area west of the park. See the green below.

Green Line represents one possible route for diversion of the diversion ditch.

The second question is more complicated. We need a retention basin to hold the extra stormwater until the peak of any flood passes on the West Fork. But where? The closer you get to the river, the lower the elevation. Because of that, the basin could fill with floodwater from the river before it fills with floodwater from upstream. Fortunately, some large tracts of land exist on higher ground that could be purchased. HCFCD estimates the need at 1248 acre-feet. Preliminary engineering should start soon to address these issues.

Upstream Development Not Addressed by Analysis

Unfortunately the Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis did not address upstream development issues in Montgomery County. That was beyond the scope of work. Regardless, such issues must be addressed somehow, someday soon. Otherwise, even the improvements we invest in today could soon be overwhelmed by additional floodwaters.

In that sense, these channel improvements represent a stopgap measure. The real solution lies in making everyone in the region realize that we are all in this together.

Additional Resources

If you missed the presentation, you can view it on YouTube.

Here is a PDF that contains the District’s summary of the Kingwood Study. It includes a spreadsheet comparing the improvements plus data sheets on the nine recommended projects.

The ten remaining channels/streams already offer a 100-year level of service. Therefore, no improvements are needed. HCFCD felt Taylor Gully should be the next priority after the Diversion Ditch. But the possible purchase of Woodridge Village may require re-thinking project requirements. Specifically, if Woodridge turns into a giant detention basin, the channel may not need as much deepening or widening.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/20/2020

1148 Days since Hurricane Harvey