2.21 Riverfront Acres in Kings Harbor Listed for $1.6 million

This morning, a For-Sale sign went up in Kings Harbor on vacant land between Chimichurri’s and the construction I reported in July. Houston Area Realtors (HAR.com) shows this property listed for sale at $1,600,000.00. After Harvey, Harris County Appraisal District valued it at $650,000. Now that most Harvey damage in the area has been repaired and there are few visible reminders of the devastation, you’ll likely see more attempts to cash in like this before flood maps are revised.

Big Money for Flood-Prone Property

Below is the sign that went up this morning.

Sign erected on 2.21 riverfront acres in Kings Harbor on 7/31/2020

The Houston Area Realtors website shows that the owner wants $1.6 million for it.

Source: https://www.har.com/search/dosearch?for_sale=1&streetaddress=kings+harbor.

That’s $724,000 per acre! Harris County Appraisal District shows its total value listed at only $700,000.

Source: https://arcweb.hcad.org/parcelviewer/

Rocky Lai and Associates own Sunrise Kings Harbor.

Flooding Potential

USGS shows the elevation of the property at about 10 feet above the river, which it fronts on. Note the the drop in the elevation profile below.

Source: https://viewer.nationalmap.gov/advanced-viewer/. Those two sharp dips in the elevation profile on the right are the streets that the green line crosses. Lai’s property is the big hump in the middle between 52 and 53 feet.

FEMA shows that the land is currently in the 100- and 500-year floodplains.

Source: https://hazards-fema.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=8b0adb51996444d4879338b5529aa9cd. Cross-hatched = floodway. Aqua = 100 year floodplain. Brown = 500-year floodplain.

Mr. Lai, who reportedly bought the property in foreclosure, must be hoping that people won’t remember the flooding history of this property and that they will fall in love with the view. Since Harvey, the only major thing that has changed is that all visible signs of flooding have been repaired.

Value of Property Tied to Flooding

According to Harris County Appraisal District, Mr. Lai evidently bought the property in 2008. HCAD lists the last five years of appraised value at:

  • 2016 $1,003,014
  • 2017 $1,200,000
  • 2018 $650,000 (Year after Harvey)
  • 2019 $697,580
  • 2020 $700,319

Note how the appraised value dropped almost 50% after Harvey. Now, Mr. Lai is trying to sell the property for about 2.5X the post-Harvey appraised value – less than three years later. Not enough has changed downstream to reduce flood risk by that much. But many people have forgotten how bad Harvey was by now. And most of the visible scars of the flood have been repaired. So here’s a refresher course for the Kings Harbor area.

Source: https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/755?From=7/31/2020%202:44%20PM&span=24%20Hours&r=1&v=surfaceBox&selIdx=0

In the last 25 years, floods have reached the street level of Mr. Lai’s property three times. Harvey was one of those. Harvey exceeded the height of his property by almost FIVE feet.

Flooding three times in 25 years is a far cry from any true 500-year flood plain.

Flood Maps Being Revised

FEMA last updated flood maps in this area in 2007. Mr. Lai benefited from a Letter of Map Revision (LOMR) for his property in 2008, the year he bought it. (See blue notation in floodway map above.) This means the property was likely raised out of the floodway by bringing in fill or moving it from a nearby location.

However, the County and FEMA are in the process of revising flood maps AGAIN in the wake of Harvey. Revisions have not yet been made public and probably won’t be for a year or two. But reportedly, both the 100- and 500-year floodplains are expanding – rumors say by about 50%. That means Mr. Lai’s property could soon be back in the 100-year flood plain. And that may be part of the reason for the sudden desire to sell the property.

Implications for Construction

If reclassified into a different flood zone, different regulations would apply for construction that could raise a buyer’s costs.

After flood map revisions, any buyer of this property would likely be forced to elevate buildings on a pier-and-beam foundation so that water could flow underneath them.

Condos built on adjacent property by Wan Bridge were permitted by the City of Houston because the ground floors were used only for garages. But those permits were issued before flood-map revisions.

Lai’s Kings Harbor property is also on the cut-bank (eroding) side of a large meandering river. If water gets behind the retaining wall, much of his property could wash downstream in the next big flood. (See comparable situation below.)

Bulkhead and Forest Cove townhome destroyed by Harvey upstream from Kings Harbor.

Several people in the townhomes above narrowly escaped with their lives during Harvey. The flood swept several buildings off their foundations.

Erecting condo or townhome units on Mr. Lai’s property, as has been rumored for several years, would be dangerous. Doing so would likely risk the lives of unsuspecting buyers or renters as well as the principle of investors.

Lives and More Lost in Last Flood

Every apartment building, townhome and business for two miles north of Mr. Lai’s property flooded during Harvey. Twelve seniors died at nearby Kingwood Village Estates as a result of injuries sustained during Harvey evacuations or the heartbreak of losing their homes.

I discussed Mr. Lai’s property with a flood expert. The expert almost came out of his shoes. He said, “Who’s going to evacuate all the families in a flood like Harvey? It would be impossible. Those people would be out of luck.”

People love water views so much that they sometimes forget how dangerous floodwaters can be. Buyer beware.

US59 during Harvey. Photo by Melinda Ray.

Posted by Bob Rehak on July 31, 2020

1037 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Your Last Chance to Register Your Opinion on Disparity in Flood-Bond Spending

County Judge Lina Hidalgo has asked for your opinion on the composition and by-laws of a new Community Resilience Task Force. The purpose of the task force is to make recommendations on how to allocate flood-bond spending to help minorities, low income households, and other socially vulnerable groups … even more.

Argument for Social Vulnerability

The Judge argues that low income households have a harder time recovering from floods. For instance, the inability to repair a flood-damaged home can create health consequences as mold multiplies. The loss of a vehicle can mean the loss of a job and subsequent eviction.

Data Shows Spending Favors Vulnerable Segments 4:1 So Far

Active HCFCD projects in neighborhoods that rank above and below .5 on the CDC’s social vulnerability index. The blue segment represents less affluent, minority neighborhoods, which current have 79% of the active bond projects.
HCFCD buyouts in neighborhoods that rank above and below .5 on the CDC’s social vulnerability index. The blue segment represents less affluent, minority neighborhoods. They have 80% of all the buyouts.

Whether you are looking at mitigation projects or buyouts, the most socially vulnerable neighborhoods tend to get FOUR TIMES more than less socially vulnerable neighborhoods.

Yet Judge Hidalgo, Commissioner Ellis and Commissioner Garcia want to increase that percentage even more … for the next 30 years … with their Community Resilience Task Force.

Questions Posed by Lopsided Emphasis

The questions are:

  • What happens to everyone ELSE who floods?
  • Will they get NO help?
  • What is a FAIR and EQUITABLE distribution?
  • Does the NUMBER of damaged structures not merit consideration?
  • Will the DISPARITY in spending discourage middle class flood victims and motivate them to leave the county if they flood again?
  • Why are certain commissioners using the word “equity” to describe “disparity”?

The language in the flood bond promised an equitable distribution of projects, not a lopsided one.

Speak Now or Live with Consequences of Silence

Today is the end of the month and the last day to submit comments to the Judge if you want them to be considered.

Below is a poignant letter written by Jennifer Coulter, a mother with two young children. She and her husband had just started a company before Harvey. So they didn’t have the credit history to qualify for an SBA loan. And their income from the previous year threw them into the lowest category for a Homeowner Assistance Grant. Two years after applying, they’re still waiting for a call-back.

And because they lived outside the 500-year flood plain, they didn’t have flood insurance. Nevertheless, they managed to restore their home by cashing in retirement accounts. They worry now about whether they can afford college for their kids.


Jennifer Coulter’s Letter to Judge

Dear Judge Hidalgo and members of the CRTF,

Please find my public comments and questions below as they relate to the proposed draft bylaws for the Community Resiliency Task Force and the inclusion of social vulnerability guidelines in flood mitigation project considerations.

My family lives in Kingwood. We flooded in Kingwood following Hurricane Harvey, and chose to reinvest in our community by rebuilding our home. We did not have flood insurance at the time of the flood.  We also did not quality for an SBA loan. We used retirement savings to fund the rebuild. As a result, our personal financial security has changed dramatically. 

The Kingwood and Lake Houston area has historically received a disproportionate amount of flood mitigation project investment related to the greater Houston and Harris County area.  Meaning, we have received far less.  The proposed social vulnerability guidelines would continue that trend, perhaps even worsening it for this area.  

As a family, we have made the difficult decision that if flooded again, we will not rebuild and again reinvest in this community.  Without a fair investment in flood mitigation projects based upon flood vulnerability rather than social vulnerability, we are almost certain to flood again.  

We are not alone.  There are many homeowners, who if able, will relocate out of Harris County if flooded again. My questions to the task force are:  

  1. How do you intend to fund this 30-year plan if your tax base leaves?  
  2. Is making this vital tax base expendable a wise long-term solution to improve flood mitigation in ANY community within Harris County?
  3. If you are not choosing project allocation based upon engineering and likeliness to flood, how do you intend to redirect flood waters to areas chosen to receive flood mitigation improvements? Do you have a means to tell rising flood waters to only go to those areas that received improvements and not to those that didn’t qualify for improvements because they weren’t socially vulnerable enough? 

Thank you for your time,
Jennifer Coulter

I know many people like the Coulters. The prospect of more flooding with no mitigation has them at the end of their tethers. Especially after they voted for the flood bond and its promise of equity. One has already moved to Montgomery County.

Contact the Judge NOW

Please email the Judge and tell her that we need more balance in flood bond spending. Do it now! Tomorrow is too late.

Email CRTF@cjo.hctx.net to submit comments. Please be polite and succinct.

For Additional Information

Here are links to:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/30/2020

1066 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Your Chance to Ask Questions About the San Jacinto Watershed Master Drainage Plan

The San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan (SJMDP) partners will host a virtual public meeting on August 13, 2020. The purpose: to provide information about study’s progress, and encourage public participation and input. 

Heat map in draft shows where most flood damage has occurred historically by sub-watershed.

Goals of Project

The SJMDP study began in April 2019 to identify flood mitigation projects that can be implemented in the near- and long-term. Their purpose: to reduce flood risks to people and property throughout the San Jacinto River watershed.

The study area includes nearly 3,000 square miles in seven different counties and approximately 535 miles of stream. Overall, the study aims to:

  • Provide an up-to-date technical basis to identify flooding vulnerabilities
  • Understand impacts of future growth
  • Improve flood resiliency within the watershed.

The SJMDP is scheduled for completion in fall 2020. 

Community engagement is an important component of the Harris County Bond Program. The partners want your participation as the program is implemented. 

Details of Virtual Meeting

The virtual community engagement meeting will be held on:

Thursday, August 13, 2020

6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. 

Join online at PublicInput.com/SanJacMasterPlan 

Or by phone at 855-925-2801 with Meeting Code: 9742 

Note: HCFCD says that the “Join Online” link above will convert from a registration to a presentation link on the day of the webinar.

The meeting will begin with a brief presentation to share project updates, followed by a moderated Q&A session with Flood Control District team members.

Residents will be able to submit questions and comments throughout the presentation. Any comments not addressed during the Q&A session will receive a response after the event. 

For Those Who Cannot Attend…

The study partners will post a recorded version of the meeting on the Flood Control District’s website and YouTube channel after the event.

For questions, please contact the Flood Control District at 346-286-4152, or complete the online comment form.

You can also mail comments to:

  • Harris County Flood Control District
  • 9900 Northwest Freeway
  • Houston, Texas 77092
  • Attn: San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan

For more information about the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan, visit www.sanjacstudy.org. 

For Those with Disabilities

Those with disabilities can make special meeting accommodations. If needed, please contact 346-286-4152 at least 48 hours prior to the meeting. 

Project Funding

The SJMDP is jointly funded with 75 percent from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Hazard Mitigation Planning Program and 25 percent from the four local partners: Harris County Flood Control, Montgomery County, City of Houston and the SJRA.

Posted by Bob Rehak on July 30, 2020

1037 Days after Hurricane Harvey

HCFCD Data Shows Socially Vulnerable Zip Codes Receive 80% of Buyouts

Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis, and Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia are pushing the idea of a Community Resilience Task Force focused on helping socially vulnerable neighborhoods receive a higher percentage of the $2.5 billion flood bond.

However, zip codes that rank in the top 50% of the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) already receive 80% of Harris County Flood Control District buyouts and 79% of the District’s active mitigation projects.

FOIA Request Reveals Emphasis on SVI Index

Data obtained from HCFCD via the Freedom of Information Act shows that in Harris County…

…the two most socially vulnerable quartiles are FOUR TIMES more likely to receive a buyout.

HCFCD Buyouts Favor Socially Vulnerable Population 4:1

As of 7/28/2020. Source: Data obtained from HCFCD via FOIA request. Quartiles 3 and 4 are the most vulnerable on the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index.

Here’s how that looks as a pie chart.

HCFCD Buyouts by SVI Quartile. The two most socially vulnerable quartiles receive 80% of all buyouts.

This is not surprising. For months, Hidalgo, Ellis and Garcia have pushed the District to incorporate the Social Vulnerability Index into its priorities. It has worked.

Do We Need More Balance?

Socially vulnerable neighborhoods get 80% of HCFCD buyouts and 79% of flood bond projects. Do those seem like fair percentages to you?

Tell the County Judge Your Opinion

The County Judge’s office is inviting the public to share their thoughts and ideas on the proposed draft bylaws of the Community Resilience Task Force that encourages even more spending by social vulnerability guidelines. 

You can register your opinion from now until July 30th, 2020, via one of the following methods:

  • Email CRTF@cjo.hctx.net and submit comments digitally, beginning July 21
  • Join a virtual focus group via Zoom. After registering, participants will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

For More Information

For more information on the “equity bias,” see this series on “Where Flood Mitigation Dollars Have Really Gone.” It was developed a year ago so the focus is on historical spending.

Or this series:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/29/2020

1065 Days since Hurricane Harvey

San Jacinto River Master Drainage Plan Draft Provides First Look at Final Report Due Out in August

On 7/23/2020, consultants for the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan gave the SJRA Board and the public a first look at a draft of the plan. The final report is due out at the end of August. The draft shows the broad outline of the team’s efforts.

Draft Shows Broad Outline of Recommendations

It shows the types of recommendations they will make. However, this draft does not yet include specific recommendations as to prioritization of projects. Those will change before the final report. For instance, much of the draft focuses on upstream detention. But specific detention site recommendations have not yet been finalized.

Funding and Partners

Below are the key slides and a brief explanation of the main point behind each. This drainage study is 75% funded by a FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant and 25% by four local partners: the SJRA, City of Houston, Harris County Flood Control, and Montgomery County.

Scope of Study

The study area covers almost 3,000 square miles and the tributaries listed on the left.
The SJRA primarily has responsibility for the portion of the watershed in Montgomery County. However, the scope of the drainage study extends to other counties including Waller, Grimes, Walker, Liberty, and San Jacinto.

Heat Map Shows Where Most Damage Occurs

The team started by looking at where flooding has occurred historically. The tan areas above show where the most damage has occurred.

Goals and Methodology

The partners started by looking at vulnerabilities and identifying mitigation possibilities. Their main goals are in red. The final report will make specific recommendations for detention, buy-outs and improving conveyance. Recommendations will also improve flood warning and communication.
The team started by integrating and updating all existing hydraulic and hydrologic models in the watershed as reflected on the latest 2018 lidar terrain data. They now take into account new construction, growth, additions to impervious cover, and Atlas-14 rainfall probabilities (which vary by sub-watershed within the larger watershed).
To calibrate and verify its H&H models, the drainage study team examined four historical storms that, together, impacted the entire study area. They then adjusted the models using radar rainfall data, and USGS high water marks and peak flow data. The objective: to make the models reflect “ground truth.”
The team is also looking at strategies to reduce sedimentation. However, this is not a major focus of this study. Their purpose is not to evaluate the relationship between sediment and flooding. Other studies will do that.

Three Main Areas of Focus

This slide shows the three major thrusts of drainage study effort over the last 1.5 years. The primary focus has been on: a) identifying the best locations for upstream detention that can reduce the volume of water coming downstream to populated areas during floods, b) where to install additional gages to improve flood predictions and warning times, and c) improving communication during emergencies.
This shows the steps the drainage team went through to evaluate and rank-order potential sites for detention.

Areas of Highest Potential for Mitigation

Here’s where they found the highest and lowest potential for mitigation. The box explains the watersheds that see the most effective solutions within the SJMDP study area, as explained in the list to the left of the slide.
Some drainage projects recommended in previous plans are no longer possible today because of upstream development. However, areas that once held potential for a single large project still hold potential for several smaller projects that add up to significant flood reduction.

Mitigation Project Funding

The cost all the drainage projects identified adds up to about $3 billion. They only reduce flooding of structures worth about $756 million dollars. Because costs exceed benefits, FEMA will not likely fund all of these.
However, many of the projects are in areas with low to moderate income (brown and tan areas). See the large concentration in the eastern watershed. That opens up other sources of funding, such as the Department of Housing and Urban Development where the benefit/cost ratio may not be as important.

Harmonizing Regulations Throughout Region

The team will also make recommendations to harmonize floodplain development regs throughout the region. Continuing to allow unmitigated upstream development in floodplains could destroy any new investment made to protect highly populated downstream areas.

Some Problems May Only Be Solved Through Buyouts

Buyouts usually have a high benefit-to-cost ratio relative to construction projects such as detention ponds. Buyout strategies can target the most vulnerable properties, such as those in the 2- and 5-year floodplains. None of the detention projects recommended by the team will likely remove those from danger.

Steps Still Not Completed

The team has finished the steps in red. They in the process of prioritizing projects and developing a phasing plan. The last bullet point is not part of this study.

More Upstream Gages Needed to Eliminate Blind Spots

The team has also identified locations for additional upstream gages and local partners who can help maintain those gages. Think of these like a “distant early warning” system. They give river forecasters visibility into “blind spots.” Forecasters will be able to add up the rainfall on various tributaries and predict the impact and timing of flooding downstream. That could give people more time to evacuate.

Ways to Improve Communication

The team is also looking at ways to communicate better during flood emergencies. They are looking at inundation mapping, evacuation routes, and improved communication protocols.

Timetable for Remainder of Project

This chart outlines the project workflow. It shows completed steps in red, and incomplete steps in yellow.
The final report with specific recommendations should be released at the end of August or in early September.

Every Little Bit Helps

I can’t wait to see this report in its final form. During the presentation, the presenter talked about reducing flooding downstream at the West Fork and I-45 by up to six feet if all upstream projects are implemented.

One thing to keep in mind: there is no single silver bullet that can solve the regions flood problems. All of these steps are additive. In my personal opinion, a foot here and a foot there can help offset future releases from Lake Conroe. People in the Lake Houston Area benefit from any and all upstream improvements.

Posted by Bob Rehak with thanks to SJRA and HCFCD

1064 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 313 since Imelda

SJRA Report on Spring Lowering of Lake Conroe

After three months of histrionic, apocalyptic debate about SJRA’s policy of seasonally lowering Lake Conroe, the lowering turned out to be neither the end of the world, nor the salvation of the Lake Houston Area. Simply put, no megastorms tested the policy. So there was no proof that it succeeded or failed.

Instead, regular smaller rains kept the lake close to its monthly averages. Neither drought nor excessive heat caused lake levels, property values, business or tax revenues to plummet. Everything functioned much as it normally has since Lake Conroe was built in 1973.

Lake Stayed Near Monthly Averages

In the two months between April 1 and May 31, the lake only dropped below 200 feet by an inch or two for three or four days and then promptly refilled. In fact, at the end of May, 2.5 inches of rain caused the lake to rise above its seasonal norm, prompting a second release.

Two releases and smaller, spread-out rains kept the Lake Houston Area safe and Lake Conroe close to its monthly averages (200.32 for April and 200.44 for May; see below). Source: SJRA Board Presentation 7/23/20.
Lake Conroe seasonal levels by month for 46 years. In April and May, Lake Conroe averages 200.32 and 200.44 respectively. Source SJRA Board Presentation.

During that time, the Lake Houston Area never flooded. Yet Lake Conroe was above its monthly average for the first three weeks of April. And it was only down about three inches for about three weeks in May.

The assertion that Lake Conroe is “normally” at 201 is a myth. That is the level at which the SJRA normally starts releases. Due to evaporation, which can take an inch a day, the lake is almost always well below that. A more accurate term for 201 would be “full pool.”

River Levels Up Slightly, but No Flooding

West Fork river levels rarely rose more than 2 or 3 feet even when rainfall was added to the release rate from Lake Conroe.

Release rates averaged about 600 cubic feet per second (cfs) and rarely exceeded 1000 cfs.

If the exercise proved anything, it was that releasing at those rates didn’t flood anyone.

River levels vs. rainfall for the last two weeks of the spring lowering. Source: SJRA Board Presentation 7/23/20.

Fall Lowering Starts This Saturday

The Houston Area lucked out with Hanna. Had the storm veered towards us, we would have received the torrential rains that swamped the Valley.

This fall, the lowering will be split into two phases: to 200 feet in August and 199.5 in September. The City of Houston has the right to call for an additional half foot in the event of a named storm.

Restatement of SJRA lake lowering policy for this year. Source: SJRA Board Presentation 7/23/20.

Even though Hanna missed us and Gonzalo fizzled, the next storm may not.

Near-Term Tropical Outlook

The NHC gives this disturbance an 80% chance of formation in the next five days. It’s moving west northwest at 15 to 20 mph and should impact the leeward islands late Wednesday.

The fact that Lake Conroe rebounded so quickly will likely calm debate in the future.

The Lake Conroe level at this instant stands at 200.22 feet. That’s less than half an inch below the July average for the last 46 years. Note that that’s also 3.5 inches above the August average.

Finally, note that the target level for August (200 feet) is about an inch ABOVE the normal monthly average. So if evaporation does its job, the SJRA will not have to lower the lake.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/27/2020

1063 Days after Hurricane Harvey

NY Times Covers Harris County Flood-Bond Spending, but Omits Spending Data

The New York Times ran a story on flood-bond spending, but forgot to look at where the budget to date has gone.

The story by Christopher Flavelle was titled, “A Climate Plan in Texas Focuses on Minorities. Not Everyone Likes It.” It outlined arguments on each side of the equity debate in flood-bond spending. From a balance point of view, it did a great job. However, it came up short in two areas.

Problems with Article

First, the headline misleads. This isn’t about climate. The story is about how to distribute flood-bond dollars equitably.

Second, it makes no mention of where flood-bond dollars to date have actually gone. Nor does it mention historical spending except in a generalized way. It implies poor people got none; rich people got it all. By avoiding research into actual current and historical spending, it perpetuated myths that do little to protect people from flooding.

Had the author checked, he would have found that those “underfunded,” disadvantaged neighborhoods have actually received 79% of the flood-bond projects to date.

Had he bothered to check historical or federal spending, he might have found an even more exaggerated pattern.

Trap Laid by Ellis

Mr. Clavelle fell into the trap that Commissioner Ellis laid. In effect, the argument goes like this. “Because homes in poor neighborhoods cost less than those in rich neighborhoods, it brings down the benefit/cost ratio for poor neighborhoods. FEMA considers that ratio in grant requests. That disadvantages grants for poor neighborhoods and perpetuates a downward cycle.”

That’s literally true – if you look only at FEMA grants. But it’s the exact opposite for HUD grants which heavily favor disadvantaged neighborhoods. Mr. Clavelle fails to mention that. As do Mr. Ellis and his surrogates whenever they talk on this subject.

Approximately 70% of those HUD grants MUST go to disadvantaged neighborhoods. The actual percentage varies by storm and type of grant. After Harvey, Harris County received a billion dollars. And the City of Houston received $1.1 billion. Together, that’s almost as much money as in the $2.5-billion flood bond. And there are still billions of additional dollars available from HUD through the General Land Office.

Preserve Your Community

If more of this money continues to go south, the Lake Houston Area is sunk in the next big storm.

But the County is considering a Community Resilience Task Force that would institutionalize this spending bias for the next 30 years.

The County Judge’s office is inviting the public to share their thoughts and ideas on the proposed draft bylaws of the Community Resilience Task Force. You can register your opinion from now until July 30th, 2020, via one of the following methods:

  • Email CRTF@cjo.hctx.net and submit comments digitally, beginning July 21
  • Join a virtual focus group via Zoom. After registering, participants will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.
  • Offer input during the July 28th Commissioner’s Court

Please express your opinions to the county judge. Nothing is more important to the future of the Lake Houston Area than achieving more balance in flood-bond spending.

Some Key Facts to Consider

Some key points I intend to make:

  • 79% of flood bond projects to date have gone to neighborhoods that rate high on the social vulnerability index leaving only 21% to everyone else. We need to tweak the formula to achieve greater balance.
  • The argument that FEMA’s emphasis on Benefit/Cost Ratios disadvantages minority neighborhoods ignores the fact that billions of dollars in HUD grants advantage minority neighborhoods. Focusing only on one without acknowledging the other is intellectually dishonest.
  • HCFCD and USACE have historically underfunded flood mitigation projects in the Lake Houston Area. In the history of HCFCD, the District has not developed ONE USACE-funded project in this area.

For More Information

For more information on the “equity bias,” see this series on “Where Flood Mitigation Dollars Have Really Gone.” It was developed a year ago so the focus is on historical spending.

Or this series on “Equity”:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/25/2020

1061 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Changing How It Will Choose Which Flood Projects to Support; Welcome to the “Equity Bias”

Imagine you pull up to a stoplight and two needy people approach you for a handout. You want to help, but have only $1 in your pocket.

Do you give the dollar to the person who has not eaten for the longest time? Or to the person from the zip code with the highest percentage of minorities and lowest average household income?

As you may have guessed, the people at the stoplight are a metaphor for flood victims.

More Needs than Dollars

Harris County doesn’t have enough dollars to build every flood mitigation project that everyone needs. Flood mitigation requires tough choices.

So the County is setting up a supposedly unbiased task force to decide whom to help. But its composition will be biased toward people who believe flood bond money should favor low income, minority neighborhoods, i.e., the constituents of the three politicians pushing the task force (Judge Lina Hidalgo, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis, and Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia).

Stacking the Jury

Look at the proposed overview and bylaws for the Community Resilience Task Force. You will see that they embed the concepts of equity, social justice, and social vulnerability into every recommendation the task force will make. For flood mitigation. Housing. Health. Construction. Urban planning. And more. For the next 30 years!

Proposed bylaws for the task force explicitly state that the members MUST demonstrate:

  • An interest in “equitable” flood mitigation.
  • Interest in socioeconomic and demographic factors that affect resilience.

So they are baking “equitable” into the job descriptions.

Difference Between Equitable and Equal

“Equitable” treatment sounds like “equal” treatment. But it’s not.

Treating people equally means treating them identically. Treating people equitably means treating them differently, but fairly.

For instance, handicapped people get to park closer to the door. That’s fair…based on need.

But what happens when you start making flood mitigation decisions on the basis of race, income, and social vulnerability? Is that fair to more affluent communities destroyed by flooding?

Flood Spending Based on Race and Income?

Ms. Hidalgo, Mr. Ellis, and Mr. Garcia define “equitable” so preference goes to the “socially vulnerable.” Their argument goes like so.

Because poor people have a harder time recovering from floods, they should get more protection from flooding. They can’t afford to flood (…as if anyone can).

Hidalgo, Ellis and Garcia all advocate the use of a CDC social-vulnerability index and LMI (low-to-moderate-income) data to prioritize flood projects.

They argue in meeting after meeting that FEMA bases grant decisions on a benefit/cost ratio (BCR) that favors neighborhoods with more expensive homes. That’s true, but…

Socially Vulnerable Neighborhoods Already Receive Preferential Treatment

They never mention that Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Community Development Block Grants for mitigation (CDBG-MIT) and disaster recovery (CDBG-DR) already favor poorer (LMI) neighborhoods.

Nor do they mention that the County has already received a BILLION dollars in CDBG-DR funds. Or that the Texas General Land Office is sitting on top of approximately $4.2 billion in CDBG-MIT funds that it’s trying to distribute. The vast majority of those funds must go toward LMI/socially vulnerable neighborhoods. (The exact percentages vary by storm and type of grant. But they often range up to 70%.)

Problems With Basing Flood-Mitigation Decisions on LMI Data

There are two more problems with basing flood-mitigation decisions on racial and LMI data.

  • First, it ignores need. Shouldn’t projects that help the largest numbers of people or the worst flooding be mitigated first?
  • Second, LMI data only comes by zip code. Zip codes can mask huge disparities in wealth. So even if you feel poor people deserve more flood protection than the middle class, it’s hard to ensure that result with zip code data. Elm Grove, for instance, is an LMI neighborhood embedded within an affluent zip code.

Mr. Ellis argued that his Precinct One constituents, who are 76% African-American and Hispanic, would not get their projects because money they deserved more was being spent in affluent Kingwood.

He did not mention Army Corps of Engineers grants to HCFCD for work on four bayous in his precinct. Nor did he mention that in the entire history of Harris County Flood Control (which dates back to 1937), not one federal dollar has ever been funneled through HCFCD by the Corps for work in the Lake Houston Area.

4 Out of 5 Flood Bond Projects in SVI Neighborhoods

How much have Ellis, Hidalgo and Garcia skewed flood bond spending to date?

During the Commissioners Court meeting on June 30, 2020, Harris County Flood Control was asked to prepare a report to document the status of flood bond risk reduction projects in socially vulnerable neighborhoods. See Item 2E on Tuesday’s Commissioners Court Agenda. It shows a startling fact.

Out of the 145 active bond projects, 79% are located in high or moderately high SVI areas.

Letter from HCFCD to Commissioners Court

The distribution looks like this.

79% of Flood Bond Projects are located in the most socially vulnerable neighborhoods; only 21% in the least socially vulnerable neighborhoods. Source: Memo to Commissioners Court from HCFCD.

If you live in a “socially vulnerable” neighborhood, you’re 4X more likely to have a flood bond project near you.

And those are just the projects based on Flood Bond money. The Flood Control District is also pursuing additional CDBG grants and Army Corps funding to help fund even more projects in socially vulnerable areas. Those projects are not reflected in these percentages.

Rushing Through Public Comment Period

One measure of how much Ellis, Hidalgo and Garcia want to institutionalize their own definitions of equity is that they’re giving only six more days for public comment with little public warning.

You can bet that the commissioners court meeting on the 28th will be packed with surrogate speakers for Ellis, Hidalgo and Garcia who favor the “equity bias.” They’ve shown up in Commissioners Court for months.

Why wouldn’t they? It’s worked. They now have 4 out of every 5 flood bond projects going into their neighborhoods and they could get even more if this task force goes through in its current form.

Meanwhile, the San Jacinto watershed, says the Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium, received 0% of the mitigation budget prior to Harvey, yet had 14% of the region’s damages during Harvey. 

How Do We Decide What’s Fair?

So, should projects go to neighborhoods that:

  • Had the fewest flood mitigation projects?
  • Flooded the worst?
  • Help the greatest number of people for the dollars invested?
  • Are the poorest?

Or should the money be split equally or on some other basis?

Personally, I think decisions like these should be left in the hands of engineers, not partisan politicians.

Register Your Opinion

The County Judge’s office is inviting the public to share their thoughts and ideas on the proposed draft bylaws of the Task Force. You can register your opinion from now until July 30th, 2020, via one of the following methods:

  • Email CRTF@cjo.hctx.net and submit comments digitally, beginning July 21
  • Join a virtual focus group via Zoom. After registering, participants will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.
  • Offer input during the July 28th Commissioner’s Court

Posted by Bob Rehak on July 24, 2020

1060 Days since Hurricane Harvey

For more information on the “equity bias,” see this series on “Where Flood Mitigation Dollars Have Really Gone”

Or this series on “The Equity Flap”

TS Hannah Continues to Veer toward Valley; Threat to Houston Reduced

Overnight, TD 8 turned into Tropical Storm Hannah. Hannah’s track continues to take it toward Corpus and the Rio Grande Valley. The shift in direction compared to earlier projections means wind and rainfall threats to Houston are reduced. However, tropical storm warnings remain up for most of the Texas coastline, including San Luis Pass to the Rio Grande Valley.

Rainfall Amounts

Hanna should produce heavy rains, but the heaviest will fall in South Texas.

While portions of south Texas could see 10 to 15 inches of rain this weekend, rainfall amounts in the Houston area should average 3-5 inches along the coast and 1-3 inches inland.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Infrared imagery shows building of Hannah.
Rainfall accumulation for storm duration
Total accumulation in north Harris County is likely to be only 1-2 inches from Hannah.

Of course, that should hold down the risk of flash flooding in the Lake Houston Area, but Lindner says the Weather Service will likely issue flash flood warnings for portions of SE Texas later today. NOAA currently gives the north Houston area only a marginal chance of flash flooding.

Houston has only a 5-10% chance of flash flooding from Hannah.

Hannah Could Strengthen to 65 MPH

National Hurricane Center expects Hanna to strengthen and bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast. NHC brings Hanna to a 65mph tropical storm at landfall. How long it takes any inner core to form today will determine if Hanna could potentially become a weak hurricane as suggested by some of the hurricane models.

Most tropical storm force winds should miss Houston.

Winds in the Lake Houston Area will not be that strong, of course, but could still reach 20 mph, according to forecasters.

Not the Weekend for Offshore Boating

Lindner says, “Wave heights near the center of Hanna will build today. As the system intensifies, waves could reach 10-15 ft tonight. Some of this wave action will move toward the upper TX coast with seas building today into the 4-6 foot range and 6-9 foot range tonight into Saturday. Large swells generated by the system will result in wave run-up and elevated tides of 1-3 feet starting later today and lasting into much of Saturday along the upper and mid TX coast. Minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tides in the typical sensitive areas along the coast.”

Forecast track shows Hannah coming onshore Saturday at 1PM in south Texas.

In summary, the brunt of the storm should miss us. But we will still get sideswiped.

The organization of Hanna will need to be monitored closely today and tonight. For up-to-the-minute status reports and forecasts, visit the National Hurricane Center’s website.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/24/2020 at 9:15 am

1060 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Latest Guidance from NHC Shows Tropical Storm Veering Southwest

Tropical Depression 8 is very close to becoming a tropical storm, likely later this evening or early Friday. TD 8 is continuing to move toward the WNW at 8mph. However, the track of the storm has shifted slightly south. That should reduce both rainfall and winds in the Houston area, compared to yesterday’s forecast.

Regardless, tropical storm warnings are issued for the TX coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. And a tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from San Luis Pass to High Island.

Landfall Now Predicted Between Corpus and Rockport

NHC now predicts landfall between Corpus and Rockport around mid-day on Saturday as an intensifying tropical storm, packing winds up to 60 mph. Some models predict it could become a hurricane.

3-5 Inches Still Possible South of I-10

Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist now predicts, “3-5 inches of widespread rainfall south of I-10 with isolated higher totals. “Much of this will likely come from various feeder bands. Maximum totals of 10 inches or greater will be possible from Matagorda Bay southward.”

Winds in 20-30 mph Range

Winds across the Houston region could increase to 20-30 mph by early Friday. Higher winds will occur farther southwest. Says Lindner, “Sustained tropical storm force winds will be most likely near/around Matagorda Bay on Saturday with 40-50mph. Winds of 50-60mph will be likely in the portion of the mid coast from Corpus Christi to Seadrift.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2020 at 5 p.m.

1059 Days since Hurricane Harvey