Month after month, I fly up and down the West Fork of the San Jacinto. More often than not, the confluence of Spring Creek and the West Fork (just west of I-69) looks like this.
West Fork (top) shows much more silt despite more flow coming from Spring Creek (left).
What Spring Creek Looked Like on Same Day
On this day (Friday, September 11), we took off from Intercontinental Airport and flew north over Spring Creek. Spring Creek looked like this.
Spring Creek north of Intercontinental Airport. Note how you can see the sandy bottom.
The difference in the water clarity is readily apparent. Yet in the 2000 Brown & Root study the authors said that Cypress and Spring Creeks contributed far more sediment. See Page 14. Sand miners, still quote and re-quote that study every chance they get.
What Accounts for Difference
So what accounts for the difference between the study and current visual observations? Mainly:
Upstream development
Sand mining
Storms that fall over one watershed, but not the other, on any given day
Twenty years after the Brown & Root study:
The heaviest development has shifted north into the West Fork watershed
Sand mining has expanded exponentially on the West Fork
Storms continue to fall over one or both watersheds.
Brown & Root’s findings on this one narrow issue (source of sediment) no longer reflect current conditions and visual observations.
The result is what you see above. Upstream from the sand mines, water flowed clearly on the West Fork, as it did on Spring Creek. Downstream, the West Fork looked like a sewer. The pictures below show some of the reasons.
Unless, otherwise noted, all the photos below were taken on 9/11/2020.
LMI River Bend mine. Not recent repair of breach and drainage ditch filled with silty water.Same ditch goes under mine entrance. From there, the silty water goes into woods and then the West Fork.At the LMI Moorehead mine, I spotted this pump.At the same mine, this pipe and what looks like a fire hose send silty water into surrounding wetlands when the level in the pond at the right gets high enough.One of the places where silty water enters the river.Zooming out, you can see the source in the background.Another mine where silty water leaks out of pitsThe water collects in the woods and eventually flows into the West Fork.
The Result
This is the end result. The West Fork (top) is far more silty than flow from Spring and Cypress Creeks (left).
A Sampling of Previous Flyovers
West Fork (right), Spring Creek (left). Photo taken on 10/2/19.West Fork (right), Spring Creek (left). November 4, 2019West Fork (right), Spring Creek (Left). February 13, 2020West Fork (top), Spring Creek (left). March 6, 2020.
I’m sure that when Brown & Root did its survey twenty years ago that Spring and Cypress Creeks contributed more sediment to Lake Houston. Today, however, I believe the West Fork contributes more.
It’s important to get this right if the community is to develop strategies that reduce the long term rate of sedimentation and save dredging dollars.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2020
1116 Days after Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20200911-RJR_0948.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-09-18 15:48:392020-09-18 15:48:59West Fork or Spring Creek: Which Contributes More Sediment to Lake Houston?
Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin issued a press release today that provided additional details about the potential Harris County/City purchase of Woodridge Village.
Unanimous County Vote For Earnest Money Contract
As reported Tuesday evening, Harris County Commissioner’s Court voted unanimously to authorize the Harris County Real Property Division to negotiate an earnest money contract with Figure Four Partners, LTD. The purchase includes two tracts of land containing 267.35 acres located in Montgomery County, which could become the Woodridge Village Stormwater Basin.
The purchase price of $14,019,316.00 is about $5 million below the appraised value of the land. Martin thanks Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis, Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia, Precinct 3 Commissioner Steve Radack, and Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle for their support.
TWDB Loan Application
Said Martin, “This is the first crucial step in completing an inter-local agreement between the City of Houston and Harris County to purchase Woodridge Village.” This vote, coupled with the upcoming announcement from the Texas Water Development Board of the City’s eligibility to apply for a 0% interest loan to help develop the Woodridge Village project, will help reduce future flooding in Kingwood and the Lake Houston region.”
During May of 2019, as well as Tropical Storm Imelda almost exactly a year ago, Woodridge Village contributed to flooding and heavy sediment deposited in much of northern Kingwood. Mayor Pro Tem Martin called for the immediate stoppage of the planned development and sale of this site.
End-of-Year Deadline
Martin says he is happy to see the execution of the earnest money contract. It will lock in the purchase price for 120 days. The purchase of the property is contingent upon Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) entering in to an interlocal agreement with the City of Houston within 120 days of signing the earnest money contract.
Last week, the City of Houston Public Works Director, Carol Haddock, submitted a letter of intent to the HCFCD Executive Director, Russ Poppe. It acknowledges the commitment by both parties, City and County, to execute a binding inter-local agreement no later than December 31, 2020.
“A binding agreement for the proposed transaction can only be evidenced by HCFCD executing a finalized inter-local agreement which will need the approval of Houston City Council” said Martin. Martin also said he “is committed to working with every council office to gain their support of this interlocal agreement, as mutual support of projects to reduce future flooding citywide are key to a successful resiliency plan.”
The location of the Figure Four Property is suitable for a sub-regional stormwater detention facility, which will help protect affected residents from future intense rainfall events.
Dave Martin, Houston Mayor Pro tem
Consolidation of Three Wastewater Treatment Plants on Woodridge Property
“Additionally, the City has identified a need for approximately 73 acres of the total site to serve as the location for a regional wastewater treatment plant,” says Martin. “This would facilitate consolidation of three wastewater treatment plants in the Kingwood Area.”
Two of these three plants were significantly impacted by flooding during Hurricane Harvey.
The City would contribute cash for the portion of the site that would house the new wastewater treatment facility.
Land in Lieu of Cash for Floodwater Detention Portion of Property
For the floodwater-detention portion of the property, the City would contribute land in lieu of cash for Harris County Flood Control District flood-risk-reduction projects.
Construction Funding Details Still to Be Worked Out
Once purchased, the City and District will work together to find additional funding to construct additional stormwater detention on the site to maximize downstream benefits. The Perry Homes/Figure Four Partners property only contains enough detention capacity at the moment to handle about 60% of Atlas 14 requirements. Atlas 14 is NOAA’s attempt to update rainfall precipitation frequency statistics. The need for the update became apparent after four so-called 500-year rains in five years (Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey, Imelda).
Despite the recent completion of three additional detention ponds, the Woodridge Village site currently only has about 60% of the detention capacity needed to handle a true 100-year rain (according to Atlas-14 requirements).Photo 9/11/2020.
The City has recently submitted an abridged application to the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) for a $30 million grant/loan to fund a flood-damage-reduction project on Taylor Gully.
TWDB manages the capital Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) created by the 86th legislature in 2019, thanks to Texas State Senator Brandon Creighton and Texas State Representative Dan Huberty. The legislature mutually seeded the FIF program with approximately $790 M, the state has received applications requesting over $2.3 billion to date. Staff recommendations for applications to advance to the formal comprehensive application submittal phase are pending.
“Ultimately, approval of this earnest money contract is a huge win for the City of Houston and Kingwood residents,” said Martin. “We hope to have more good news once the city has completed its application to the Texas Water Development Board for improvements to Taylor Gully, which will happen later this year.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2020
1115 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 364 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20200907-DJI_0697.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-09-17 15:22:032020-09-17 15:22:24Mayor Pro Tem Martin Provides Additional Details on Purchase of Woodridge Village
During a flyover of the City of Houston’s Northeast Water Purification Plant Expansion project on 9/11/2020, I counted 13 construction cranes operating simultaneously on different parts of the site. The site stretches a full two miles from the start of the plant near the northeast corner of Beltway 8 to the tip of the water intake platform in Lake Houston. Here are photos that show the scope of this massive construction project.
The water intake platform stretches approximately 1100 feet out into Lake Houston.The 108-inch intake pipes are larger than some pieces of construction equipment.Looking NE toward Lake Houston along the path that the intake pipes will take through Summerwood.Looking west toward the main treatment plant, with Beltway 8 in the background.Construction began in 2018.Looking SW across the eastern portion of the new plant.Looking SW across the western portion. The site is divided into about 10 sections each as large or larger than a city block.A close up of construction activity in just one of the sections.Looking straight east back toward Lake Houston from the western edge of the plant.Note the current water treatment plant in the foreground.It produces about 80 million gallons per day of fresh water.Looking north over the center of the site.Looking WNW. Note the NE corner of Beltway 8 in the top left.The plant expansion will provide another 320 million gallons per day.For scale, note the size of the man on the scissor-lift in the red circle.
The plant expansion will supply 320 million gallons per day of treated water capacity in addition to the current 80 million gallons per day. So capacity will quintuple by completion in 2024.
Converting Area to Surface Water to Reduce Subsidence
According to the City, “The expansion will include conventional treatment processes like the existing plant that help coagulate, settle, filter, and then disinfect water.” Quality will exceed requirements set forth by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.
In addition, says the City, an advanced oxidation process called ozonation will disinfect water to help ensure that harmful organisms such as Giardia and Cryptosporidium are eliminated. Ozonation also helps eliminate taste and odor causing compounds, which improves the aesthetic quality of the water supplied by the plant.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20200911-RJR_1586.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-09-17 11:33:022020-09-17 11:44:16Construction of Northeast Water Purification Plant in High Gear
The Texas Water Development Board published a new video today in their Texas Water Newsroom. The title: “Data from the sky informs flood planning on the ground.” The video explains how Lidar (light detection and ranging) data helps develop accurate, up-to-date flood maps.
900X Higher Resolution
Surveyors can acquire high resolution data quickly from the air using pulses of light.
Lasers mounted under planes pulse hundreds of thousands of times per second producing incredibly detailed images of the terrain.
Texas Water Development Board
The data has one square-meter resolution compared to the old standard of 30 square-meters used in older USGS surveys. That’s a 900x improvement (1m x 1m vs. 30m x 30m) in resolution.
That increased resolution lets mapmakers see much more detail in the landscape, including low areas where water tends to pool during floods.
Play the Video
Filtering Out Buildings and Foliage Reveals Terrain
By filtering out portions of the spectrum, say those that have to do with buildings and foliage…
Screen Capture from TWDB Video
…scientists can reveal the terrain under them.
Lidar Now FEMA Requirement for Mapping
FEMA now requires the use of Lidar in floodplain mapping. As the state continues to grow rapidly, Lidar helps floodplain modelers better understand what is happening on the ground during a flood.
Inspiring the Next Generation
This is a fascinating little video. It has enough meat for curious adults. It also has a wow factor for students that might someday inspire interest in science, technology or engineering careers.
Updated Harris County Floodplain Maps
Harris County Flood Control District uses Lidar data to help develop the next generation of flood maps for the region. FEMA last updated the maps in 2007 as a result of massive flooding from Tropical Storm Allison. The District could release preliminary maps as early as 2022. But it could then take several more years for FEMA to review and approve them. The FEMA process involves a lengthy public comment period.
Source: Harris County Flood Control District.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2020
1114 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Lidar-Terrain.jpg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=16711200adminadmin2020-09-16 16:06:552020-09-16 16:18:27How LIDAR is Used to Develop New Flood Maps
Harris County Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis
Garcia Also Wanted to Add New Condition
Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia also wanted to add a new condition. He wanted to get the City to give Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) a place on the City’s planning commission. At this point in the meeting, it looked like the motion could die again.
However, Houston Mayor Pro Tem DAVE MARTIN assured Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia that he would fight to get HCFCD a place on the Planning Commission. Garcia then decided to vote for the motion. Earlier this month, the two jointly requested the Planning Commission to consider higher flood mitigation standards in their planning decisions.
How Vote Went Down
Garcia emphasized that he didn’t like the Woodridge Village motion per se, but that he trusted Martin to get the County a seat on the planning commission. Thus, he would vote for the Woodridge earnest money proposal.
Veteran observers of Commissioners Court say this was the first time Ellis, Hidalgo and Garcia contemplated splitting their vote. Previously, they have always voted as a block.
Commissioners Jack Cagle and Steve Radack had already voted for the motion. When Garcia flipped, Ellis and Judge Lina Hidalgo read the handwriting on the wall. They also voted for the Woodridge earnest money contract at that point. The final vote: 5-0.
What Comes Next
At this point, final language of the Inter-Local Agreement with the City must be hammered out in the next 120 days. The City must also agree to the conditions listed above by:
Identifying land worth half the purchase price
Contributing assets or cash equal to half the purchase and development costs
Updating certain regulations affecting flood plain development
It also seems to me that the County must develop plans for Woodridge so that it can estimate costs and how much the City will have to contribute.
Finally, Perry Homes and its subsidiary, Figure Four Partners, must agree to all the conditions and sign the earnest money contract.
There is still a long road ahead for this deal. But today was a great step forward. At least we’re on the road now, thanks in large part to Commissioner Jack Cagle and Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin who refused to let this deal die.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/15/2020
1113 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 362 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Rodney-Ellis-9.15.20-mtg.jpg?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=17961200adminadmin2020-09-15 19:04:062020-09-15 19:29:07Harris County Commissioners Approve Negotiation of Earnest Money Contract for Woodridge Village
For the last few months, New Caney ISD has been clearing an approximately 60-acre site between Sorters-McClellan Road and US59 south of the Kingwood Medical Center. But only now have they started work on the detention pond. The site, formerly a par-3 golf course, will become home to the School District’s third high school.
Detention Pond Work Finally Underway
In the last few days, contractors have finally started excavating a planned detention pond at the southern end of the site. They appear to be using the dirt to build up the northern part of the site where the high school and playing fields will go. This two-part operation is a procedure called “cut and fill” in the industry.
Neighboring residents feared a repeat of Woodridge Village, as contractors clearcut the site without installing detention.
A storm, such as Imelda last year, could have accelerated sheet flow from the site and flooded them. However, so far, no major storms have hit the area this year. Everyone has lucked out to date.
However, clearing a site of this size and excavating the detention last increases risk. That increased risk argues for the City to adopt building code regulations that minimize the time between clearing and excavation of detention ponds.
It can be done. Some builders excavate ponds immediately and store the dirt in huge piles to redistribute after the rest of the site is cleared.
Pictures from 4 Corners of Site
Here are some pictures taken Friday, September 11. They show the operation in progress from the four corners of the site.
Looking west. South is to the left. The big pit being excavated in the middle of the picture will be the retention pond for the high school complex.Note the loaded truck heading off to the right (north).Looking south from the northeastern corner of the site toward the San Jacinto River, Humble and Deerbook Mall in the background.Looking SE from the NW corner of the site, you can see how dramatically this site slopes toward the upper right. That’s Sorters Road on the right.From the SW corner of the site looking NE toward Insperity and the Kingwood Medical Center, you can see excavated dirt being hauled to the upper portions of the site to build it up. US59 cuts diagonally through the upper right of the frame.
Project Scope
To put the size of this site in perspective, the New Caney ISD high school #3 is approximately:
Twice as big as the HCA Kingwood Medical Center site
Three times larger than Insperity’s complex
Six times larger than the Lowes site across US59.
It will contain the school, athletic fields, parking lots and the detention pond.
General plan for New Caney High School #3
The area west of the site along Sorters Road will be expanded to accommodate traffic. Even though the site is in Montgomery County, it sits entirely within the City of Houston. The City has handled all permitting for the project.
The District’s 2018 Bond Fund will pay for the project so it should not affect taxes, according to a Houston Chronicle article.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2020
1112 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 361 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20200911-RJR_0914.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-09-14 14:38:032020-09-14 14:44:35Development Watch: Detention Pond for New Caney ISD High School Number 3 Finally Started
The purchase of Woodridge Village from Perry Homes’ subsidiary Figure Four Partners is back on the agenda for Harris County Commissioners Court next Tuesday. All conditions previously imposed on the deal by Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis have been addressed this time.
Part of the 268-acre Woodridge Village being considered for purchase as a flood control facility. If purchased, HCFCD would greatly expand the flood detention capacity. While Perry Homes has virtually finished construction of their planned detention ponds, those are still about 40% short of Atlas-14 requirements.
This time, the County Attorney will present the proposal, not Flood Control or the County Engineer’s office. See item 14 G below.
Agenda Item 14-G
14. County Attorney
g. Request that Commissioners Court authorize the Real Property Division manager or assistant division manager to sign an earnest money contract with Figure Four Partners, Ltd., for the purchase of two tracts of land containing approximately 267.35 acres in Montgomery County for the Woodridge Village stormwater detention basin in the amount of $14,019,316, approximately $5,100,770 below the appraised value, with purchase of the property being contingent upon certain conditions and commitments.
Reportedly, the agenda item moved to the county attorney this time because the purchase of the property is a legal issue.
Any projects done on the property after the purchase will fall into the domains of Flood Control or Engineering.
From the letter above, it appears the county has an opportunity to purchase the land below the market appraisal – a rarity.
Previous Conditions Specified in Letter
The purchase will be contingent on Flood Control and the City of Houston entering an Inter-Local Agreement within 120 days of the execution of an earnest money contract. The earnest money contract will also require several commitments by the City. Commitments include, but are not limited to, the following:
City will contribute land to the county equal to one-half of the purchase price for flood damage reduction projects.
City and the Flood Control District will equally share costs associated with the basin’s development AND post-development maintenance. The deed will show both the City and District as co-owners of the two tracts of land.
City will adopt updated detention and fill mitigation requirements that, at a minimum, match Harris County regulations and Atlas 14 requirements – BOTH inside the City AND within the City’s extraterritorial jurisdiction.
Will Ellis Add New Conditions?
The subject of Woodridge has come up at Commissioners Court at least five times in the last six months. Each time, Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis has used the occasion to add new conditions to the deal. All of his conditions, however, have been addressed in the letter above from Robert Soard, the First Assistant County Attorney.
If you would like to speak to the commissioners on this topic, you need to sign up no later than 8 a.m. on the day of the Commissioners Court meeting at https://appearancerequest.harriscountytx.gov/.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2020
1111 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 360 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20200911-RJR_1153.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-09-13 12:55:182020-09-13 13:59:48Woodridge Village Purchase Back on Commissioners Court Agenda – With All Conditions Addressed
More than three years after Hurricane Harvey, the storm’s destruction seems to keep widening. A helicopter flight down the West Fork of the San Jacinto this week revealed a recently toppled tank; abandoned equipment; and leaking, abandoned wells, one less than five feet from the river.
Recently Toppled Tank
The toppled tank, likely a dehydrator or separator, ripped pipes out of the ground when it fell and crashed through a fence. See photos below.
Tank on right BEFORE it fell. Photo taken 6/27/2020. Tank was already leaning in the direction it fell. See photos below.Photo of same tank (upper left) taken on Friday, 9/11/2020. Abandoned townhomes in foreground on Marina Drive, which curves in front of tanks.Photo of same tank taken from ground level on 9/12/2020. Tank smashed through a fence when it fell.Reverse angle shows base and ruptured lines. Note thickness of steel. This tank had to weigh thousands of pounds.
More Abandoned, Damaged Tanks
A hunt for more wells and tanks in the area revealed dozens that have been abandoned. Some have already toppled. Some are leaking. Most are rusting. Many have shifted off their foundations. And all are surrounded by abandoned equipment and weeds.
This tank was lifted and shifted off its foundation by Harvey.Note how tank on top right floated from its original position in flood.More tanks floated off their original positions by Harvey.
Abandoned, Leaking Wells
I also spotted 11 abandoned wells in the area east of Forest Cove Drive near the river, several of them leaking oil.
Abandoned wells by Marina Drive (right) and Aqua Vista Street (left) in Forest Cove near townhome complex destroyed by Harvey.
Property of the State
Noxxe Petroleum, the Company that owned most (if not all) of these wells and tanks, went bankrupt in February after lengthy legal battles with the State. Those battles started even before Harvey. As early as 2009, shortly after incorporation. Since the company’s bankruptcy, the State has seized the wells and equipment. And the company lost its charter in a tax forfeiture.
Notice posted on gate of Noxxe lease.
Railroad Commission lists Noxxe as the operator on dozens of other wells that are NOT visible from the air. Many have already been plugged. But many are also listed as still operating even though the lease has been abandoned. And some of those, like the tanks are leaking oil.
Source: Texas Railroad Commission. Noxxe is listed as operator on virtually all the “active” wells north of the river.
This Harvey destruction is going to be a huge cleanup job costing millions of taxpayer dollars. The Railroad Commission said, however, that it could not start work on the property until its budget recycled in the fall. Fall is about a month away. Take note.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just upgraded Tropical Depression 19 to Tropical Storm Sally. And they will likely upgrade it again to a Hurricane on Monday.
Miami and Tampa Bay radar currently show a defined center of circulation and deep convection across much of Florida Bay and the Florida Keys.
The National Hurricane Center is now tracking seven storms lined up in the Atlantic.
Sally’s Likely Landfall in Louisiana
Sally’s cone of uncertainty no longer extends as far west as Houston. For now. See below.
On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday. Sally will then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Hurricane Predicted
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Sally will likely become a hurricane by late Monday. (Note how the S’s turn to H’s in the cone map above.)
Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) south and southeast of the center.
Intensity guidance is inching up some. Conditions over the eastern Gulf of Mexico make a hurricane likely at landfall. “In fact,” says the NHC, “the hurricane models show significant intensification of Sally. This will need to be closely monitored over the next 1-2 days.”
Rainfall
Florida
Sally should produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight. NHC expects 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to Tampa Bay.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across Southern and Central Florida.
Central Gulf
Through Tuesday, NHC expects Sally to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast between Florida and SE Louisiana. NHC predicts 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.
Flooding Likely
NHC says, “This is expected to be a slow-moving system. Sally will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Nearly all guidance slows Sally to around 5mph as the system approaches the coast. That will result in prolonged impacts and potentially devastating amounts of rainfall.” Remember Harvey?
Stay Alert
Even though Houston is outside of the cone of uncertainty today, stay alert. Remember how the tracks of Marco and Laura kept shifting hourly. The NHC cautions that “The average NHC track error at 96 hours is around 150 miles. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/12/2020
1110 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/two_atl_2d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2020-09-12 15:22:122020-09-12 15:22:53TD 19 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally
As of 5PM on Friday afternoon, September 11, Topical Depression 19 had formed off the east coast of Florida and was headed for the Gulf. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Deep convection has developed near or over the likely location of the surface center. The system is overall fairly large in nature with several curved bands.”
TS Watch Already Issued for the SE Florida Coast
The National Hurricane Center has already issued a tropical storm warning for the SE coast of Florida.
Tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be required tomorrow for portions of the central US Gulf Coast.
National Hurricane Center
Track
Tropical Depression 19 is moving toward the WNW around 8mph. This motion should continue for the next 24-48 hours. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, but right now the depression is forecast to approach the central US Gulf coast early next week. It could ravage some of the same areas hit by Hurricane Laura.
Cone of uncertainty for TD19. Remember, the storm has an equal chance of tracking anywhere within the cone. The cone does not indicate the storm’s width.Tropical storm force wind probabilities for the next 120 hours (3 days). As of 2PM Friday, September 11.
Intensity
According to Linder, “Tropical Depression 19 could already be nearing topical-storm intensity. Conditions ahead of the system look generally favorable for development with light shear, a good moisture envelope, and very warm sea surface temperatures.” He adds that models diverge in their forecasts: some bring the system to a hurricane while many show a stronger tropical storm. NHC brings the system to a 70mph tropical storm. “But it is very possible that a hurricane will be approaching the central US Gulf coast early next week,” says Lindner.
Monitor weather forecasts closely for the next few days.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 11, 2020
1109 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 19 years since the Twin Tower Attacks
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/205735_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-09-11 18:01:592020-09-11 18:02:11Tropical Depression 19 Predicted to Become Tropical Storm or Possibly Hurricane In Gulf Next Week
