Remember Uncertainty With Marco, Laura; It’s Why We Need More, Bigger Gates on Lake Houston

Many anxious flood victims worry openly on social media about about the possibility of flooding by back-to-back tropical events. Should we lower Lake Conroe? Is it too late? Will we flood again? Why aren’t they releasing water?

The novelty of having two tropical storms in the Gulf simultaneously has added a high degree of uncertainty to weather forecasting at the moment. The forecast tracks, intensities and dangers of Marco and Laura seem to change every few hours.

This is precisely why we need more and bigger flood gates on Lake Houston.

By the time we are certain what will happen with these storms, it will likely be too late to release water if we need to.

The bewildering multitude of competing weather forecast models complicates matters. They show landfall anywhere from Corpus Christi to the Mississippi just two days before the storms’ arrival. It reminds me of a fortune cookie I once got. It said, “A man with two clocks never knows what time it is.”

Marco Weakening Before Making Landfall

Since this morning, the cone of uncertainty for Marco has shifted inland again and the storm has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The only coastal watches or warnings remaining in effect have to do with Laura which will follow Marco later this week. (See more below.)

As of 4pm CDT on Monday 8/24/2020. Source for all graphics: National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center shows only a slight chance of flash flooding for the areas hit directly by Marco and those are far east of us. Rainfall potential from Marco through Wednesday evening for the Houston Area is less than an inch, according to the latest NHC predictions.

At 1 p.m. Monday, the NHC issued an advisory stating that, “It is reasonable to assume that sustained tropical storm force winds will no longer reach the northern Gulf coast. Therefore, all wind and surge warnings for the Gulf coast associated with Marco have been discontinued.”

Laura Remains Potent Threat

Even though Laura’s cone of uncertainty has shifted slightly east today, the Houston Area remains on the western edge of the cone.

At the moment, NHC predicts Laura will bring Houston 2-4 inches of rain, and the Lake Conroe area less than 2.

That’s enough to raise the chance of flash flooding to 5-10%.

Laura’s maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. NHC predicts little change in Laura’s strength today, but predicts the storm will strengthen when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. They foreast Laura will become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional strengthening on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles, primarily to the northeast and east of the center. As Laura approaches the Gulf Coast, swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.

Tropical storm force winds should reach the Texas coast between 8 a.m. and p.m. on Wednesday. Most of the Houston Area will have a 40-50% chance of experiencing winds greater than 39 mph.

Alert Houston has just issued the following notice:

“The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Houston. Coastal portions of the city are also under a Storm Surge Watch. Although the exact track and intensity of Laura is still unknown, Houston residents should pay close attention and begin taking steps in the event an emergency situation develops.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, put a finer point on it. “Tropical storm force winds are likely along and east of I-45 with sustained winds of 35-45mph across portions of Galveston, Harris, Montgomery and Walker Counties. Strong winds of 45-55mph will be possible across Chambers, Liberty, San Jacinto, Polk, and Trinity Counties. It is possible that near hurricane conditions could scrape close to eastern Chambers and eastern Liberty counties.”

To Lower or Not to Lower, That is the Question

So with:

  • People panicking
  • Forecasts changing hourly
  • Lake Conroe Association restocking its war chest
  • Wildfires burning up the west
  • Drought spreading into parts of Texas
  • The Nation’s foremost hurricane experts predicting only 1-2 inches of rain for Lake Conroe and 2-4 for Lake Houston…

…what do you do? Order the lakes lowered or keep them where they are?

Source: https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas

The answer is obvious. You enlarge the discharge capacity of Lake Houston by adding more and bigger gates to the spillway.

Gates on Lake Houston have one-fifteenth the discharge capacity of those on Lake Conroe.

Lake Conroe can release water 15 times faster than Lake Houston. 150,000 cubic feet per second vs. 10,000. With that in mind, the likelihood, at this hour (5pm Monday), is that water released from Lake Conroe could not get into the Gulf before Wednesday when the storms arrive.

And that, in a sentence, is why we need more and bigger flood gates on the Lake Houston Dam. Remember Marco and Laura, and that knot in the pit of your stomach, the next time the subject of gates comes up.

By the way, neither Lake Conroe, nor Lake Houston, is releasing water at this time. Lake Conroe is at 199.76 feet above sea level and Lake Houston is at 41.6 feet. Both are already below their normal levels, though not as low as many would prefer. At 4:24 this afternoon, the SJRA issued a press release saying that, “We continue to watch Laura closely. Right now the projected totals of rainfall in the Lake Conroe watershed are very low.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020 at 5 pm

1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Marco Downgraded to Tropical Storm, But Track Shifts Toward Houston; Laura Could Hit Coast as Cat 2 or Higher

At 7:00 a.m. CDT Monday, Tropical Storm Marco was moving north toward the mouth of the Mississippi at 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts Marco will approach the Louisiana coast this afternoon, and then turn west toward Houston/Galveston, following the coast through Tuesday night.

NHC expects Marco to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday over southeast Texas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily northeast of the center.

Maximum sustained winds have already decreased to near 60 mph with higher gusts.

As One Storm Dissipates, Another Arrives

As Marco is breaking up, Laura could arrive as a Category 2 or higher hurricane.

The NHC still gives the Houston Area a 50-60% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, most likely from Laura (see below).

The most likely time for arrival of those winds is during the day on Wednesday.

Laura continues to move quickly WNW at near 21 mph.

“Details of when Laura will turn toward the NW and N and where the core of the system will cross the coast over the NW Gulf remain unclear,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

The official NHC forecast brings Laura toward the TX/LA border, but landfall could be as far west as Galveston Bay and as far east as Vermillion Bay.

Models still show a wide spread of possible landfalls, but the largest cluster is on the TX/LA border.

Lindner says, “It is important to not focus solely on the exact landfall points as Laura will be a large hurricane with far reaching impacts.”

Laura Intensity

Laura is disorganized this morning. Likely little will change in Laura’s overall intensity today, due to interaction with the Cuban landmass. Once Laura reaches the SE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, intensification is likely.

“It is unclear how quickly the inner core of Laura will form. Broad systems such as Laura tend to take time to develop,” says Lindner.

Laura will likely reach hurricane status over the central Gulf and be near major hurricane status over the NW Gulf on Wednesday.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Impacts from Laura

As of 7 a.m., NHC advises, “From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches near the Texas/Louisiana border. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding across this region.”

However, if the storm stays on its current course or shifts farther east, the amount of rainfall in the Houston Area will lessen. As of 4 a.m. this morning, Lindner predicted rainfall of:

  • 2-4 inches east of I-45 
  • 1-3 inches west of I-45

Squalls will begin to arrive along the upper TX coast Wednesday and increase into Wednesday night and Thursday.

Tides/Storm Surge: 

Laura will cause a large storm surge near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast. Significant swells will begin to arrive on Tuesday. This will likely drive water levels upward along the Gulf beaches and into Galveston Bay, especially at high tide. 

Note: water level rises will likely begin along the coast early Wednesday.

Winds: 

Sustained winds of 35-45mph will be possible east of I-45 with lower speeds west of I-45. Winds may gust higher in squalls especially over Chambers, Liberty, eastern Harris, and Galveston counties. Any shift west in the forecast track will bring stronger winds into the area.  

Sustained tropical storm force winds arrive along the upper TX coast by early evening on Wednesday.

Preparedness

Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the SE TX or SW LA coast should be underway.

Enact hurricane plans and follow all advice and recommendations from local elected officials and emergency management agencies.

Residents near the coast in evacuation areas, should review plans and react quickly should any evacuation recommendations be ordered.

Keep gas tanks full.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/24/2020

1091 Days after Hurricane Harvey

 

NHC Says Marco Now Hurricane, Laura Shifting West

As of 2 p.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Marco has officially turned into a hurricane and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Laura continuing to shift toward the west.

Current positions of both storms as of 1:19 EDT Sunday, 8/23/2020.

NHC Forecast for Marco as of 1pm CDT

At this time, Marco is not a large threat to the Houston Area. However storm-surge warnings are up from Sabine Pass to Mobile Bay. Parts of coastal Louisiana could receive 4-6 feet of life-threatening storm surge.

The heaviest rain from Marco should hit from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

NOAA no longer predicts even a marginal risk of flash flooding from Marco for the Houston Area.

However, Houston could still feel significant wind from Marco. NHC shows Houston has a 60-70% chance of feeling tropical-storm-force winds (40 mph or higher).

The most likely arrival time for the winds will be Tuesday morning.

After Marco comes ashore as a hurricane, it will rapidly diminish to a tropical storm and then a tropical depression. NHC currently shows the remnants of the storm curling back into north Texas by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Space City Weather predicts, “Most of the winds and heavy rainfall should remain to the east and north of the center, we do not anticipate severe conditions in the Houston region from Marco.”

Laura May Now Be Larger Threat to Houston Area

Overnight the cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm Laura shifted west toward east Texas. The most likely track is currently right up the Texas/Louisiana Border. Laura is currently a tropical storm, projected to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the central Gulf coast.

NOAA predicts Laura could dump 4-6 inches of rain on the Houston Area.

As with Marco, NHC predicts a 60-70% chance of tropical-storm-force winds for the Houston Area.

The most likely arrival time for Laura’s winds in the Houston Area will be Wednesday evening.

Net: Laura could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week.

Uncertainty Remains So Continue to Monitor Forecasts

Considerable uncertainty remains about both storms. Models disagree over where Laura will make landfall. They range from Corpus Christi to New Orleans at the moment. Space City Weather points out that “For the National Hurricane Center, the average track position error at 3.5 days before landfall is about 120 miles, which is a little bit greater than the distance between downtown Houston and the Texas-Louisiana border on Interstate 10.”

So what should you do? Continue to monitor the progress of both storms throughout the week at Hurricanes.gov or on your favorite weather channel.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/2020 based on input from Space City Weather, the National Hurricane Center, and Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

1090 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Lastest NHC Forecasts Show Marco, Laura Slamming Louisiana

Updates on Tropical Storm Marco and Laura issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. EDT show both storms aiming toward Louisiana at this point. That doesn’t mean the Houston Area is out of the woods. The forecasts has changed four times since yesterday. Here’s the latest from the NHC.

Latest Cones of Uncertainty for Marco and Laura

Houston is now only on the fringe of the cone of uncertainty for Marco.
Even though forecasts for Laura have been shifting steadily west, NHC now shows Houston outside the cone of uncertainty.

Note, however, the images above do not indicate the width of the storms, just their potential tracks up to five days out. The width of the cone indicates the degree of uncertainty about the track.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Laura and 90 miles (150 km) from the center of Marco.

Intensity and Rainfall Predictions

Forecasters predicted Marco will become a hurricane tonight or Sunday, and remain at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday.

They also predict that Marco will dump 1 to 3 inches (isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches) on the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. This rainfall, they say, may result in areas of flash and urban flooding.

Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional rainfall and wind impacts by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.

Wind Predictions

We could feel the arrival of tropical storm force winds from Marco around mid-day on Monday.
Tropical storm force winds from Laura could be felt in Houston on Wednesday morning.
However, there’s only a 20-30% chance we will feel 40 mph winds from either Laura or Marco.

Rainfall and Flooding Predictions

At present, NOAA shows Marco dumping 2-6 inches of rain, mainly over the states east of us. (See below).

As of 4:50 EDT Saturday, NOAA is predicting less than an inch of rainfall for the Houston Area.

NOAA has not issued rainfall predictions yet for Laura. However, NOAA does give the Houston region a marginal (5%) chance of flash flooding from Marco.

As of 4:50 pm Saturday, NOAA predicts Houston has only a 5% chance of flash flooding from the storms.

Better Safe Than Sorry; How to Stay Up to Date

Forecasters for Laura emphasize that the second storm could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.

NHC advises monitoring the progress of both storms several times a day until they pass. The NHC has started issuing updates every two to three hours for the duration of the storms.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns, “While the situation for SE TX is looking better this afternoon, it would be important to maintain a close watch on this system in the event it weakens significantly and the system becomes more steered by the low level flow.” That could shift it back in the direction of Houston.

You can also sign up for text alerts from Ready Harris: Text MARCO to 888777 for emergency alerts. Better safe than sorry.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020

1089 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Commissioners to Consider Purchase of Woodridge Village Again in Tuesday Meeting

Harris County published the agenda for next Tuesday’s Commissioners Court meeting. Once again, the purchase of Woodridge Village is on the agenda. The Perry Homes property contributed to flooding in Elm Grove Village twice last year, after the developer clear cut the land but did not yet install detention. Now, even with detention installed, the amount will likely be insufficient to forestall future floods because the engineers calculated the volume needed based on pre-Atlas 14 rainfall estimates. The new Atlas-14 estimates are about 40% higher than the old ones.

Since the 2019 floods, both the City and anxious Elm Grove residents have been urging the county to purchase the property and turn it into a regional floodwater detention facility to help protect homes in the Taylor Gully Watershed.

Commissioners first considered the purchase in April. When they could not reach agreement then, the issue resurfaced in several other meetings, but Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis kept heaping new conditions on the deal. First he wanted the City of Houston to pay for half the purchase price. Then, half the construction cost of building additional detention. The the City also had to adopt Atlas 14. And the City had to upgrade multiple development regulations to become consistent with County regs. And the City couldn’t just promise to do those things in an interlocal agreement. Future tense. They had to actually do them. Present tense.

Agenda Item 1T Under County Engineer

Item 1T Reads:

Recommendation that the court find a public necessity exists for the Flood Control District to purchase Tracts G503-06-00-01-001.0 and G503-06-00-01-002.0 in Montgomery County from Figure Four Partners, Ltd., in the amount of $14,019,316 plus closing costs for the Woodridge Village stormwater detention basin, and that the Real Property Division Manager or Assistant Division Manager be authorized to sign any agreements or closing documents associated with this transaction.

Documentation attached to the agenda item mentions the previous conditions put on the sale, but also focuses on “public necessity.” Declaring a property a public necessity is necessary before the county could purchase it. Even if commissioners approve this agenda item, they would need to revisit the issue to ensure the City has complied with all conditions the commissioners previously imposed on the sale.

The letter from the County Engineer to commissioners also proposes an inter-local agreement, which Commissioner Ellis previously objected to.

Status of Perry Detention Ponds

Excavation of all five detention ponds on the Perry site is complete, although some finish word remains on N3. Contractors finished S1 and S2 earlier this year. Since then, they have also virtually completed N1, N2 and N3. All pictures below were taken within the last two weeks.

N1 in the northwest corner of Woodridge.
N2 in the middle part of the western perimeter.
N3 along the eastern border of the site.

Together, these three ponds comprise 77% of the total acre/feet of detention on the site.

The newly excavated increase of capacity will help protect Elm Grove residents in rainfalls up to 12.17 inches. But complying with the new Atlas-14 regulations would require protection from a 17.3 inch rain in 24 hours. That’s about 40% more. Hence the need to purchase the property before it is developed into homesites.

TD 14 could test LJA’s design of the ponds when the tropical system makes landfall next Tuesday.

Latest Update on Tropics

At 7 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center issued updates on the two tropical systems that threaten the northern Gulf. Both could affect the Texas/Louisiana area on Tuesday. That should be around the exact time commissioners are scheduled to meet virtually. I’m assuming the meeting could be postponed if the storm turns into an emergency.

I’ve heard rainfall estimates ranging from 3 to 18 inches for the storm(s). Here’s what the storms are currently doing according to the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Depression 14 is currently dumping three to six inches of rain in the eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

Tropical Storm Laura is also expected to dump three to six inches of rain in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba, with isolated totals up to eight inches.

NHC predicts both storms will intensify into hurricanes in coming days.

Only this morning, the cone was centered on Mississippi and Alabama.
Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center, but the storm is projected to intensify into a hurricane before making landfall.

If these two storms merge, things could get interesting. Compared to the last two days, the cone of uncertainty for TS Laura keeps shifting to the west. And its wind field now includes the Houston Area.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2020

1088 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Not Since 1933 Have Two Hurricanes Hit the Gulf Simultaneously

As of 11 a.m. Friday morning, we have Tropical Depression 14 and Tropical Storm Laura poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters predict both could intensify into Category 1 hurricanes. Not many living people can remember the last time we had two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist found only one other instance. That was in 1933 when two tropical systems made landfall near the Florida panhandle and near Brownsville, Tx.

That said, the National Hurricane Center updated forecasts for TD14 and Laura at 11 a.m. Here are the current positions of the storms.

TD 14 is the most imminent threat. It is currently in the Bay of Honduras battering the Bay Islands.

TD 13 intensified into a tropical storm overnight and was given the name Laura. It is near the windward islands, heading NW toward Cuba and Florida. The big question: Will land interaction weaken the storm? At this hour, some models show it dissipating. Others show it intensifying into a hurricane.

Current Forecast for TD 14

The Lake Houston Area could start feeling tropical storm force winds (greater than 39mph) by next Monday night. The current most likely timing for the arrival of TS (40mph) winds would be around 11:00 p.m. Monday to 2:00 a.m. Tuesday.
Current forecasts show the storm briefly intensifying into a hurricane and then diminishing to a tropical storm as it approaches the upper Texas Coast between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
NHC says it’s too early to determine exact impacts to the upper Texas coast. Too much uncertainty remains.

Rainfall Potential

Last night, Channel 2 KPRC news predicted the possibility of 12 – 18 inches of rain out of this storm. That may be high.

At this time, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts the storm will drop 3 – 5 inches of rain, mainly to the east of I-45, with some higher amounts possible.

“Grounds are very dry over the region, so the area soils will be able to handle some rainfall…at least a few inches…before significant run-off begins,” says Lindner. “Confidence is not high on the track and that will in the end determine where the maximum rain falls…with most of the heavy rain falling along and east of the track of the center.”

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is only predicting a 50-60% chance of rain for next Tuesday.

The lower estimates may give hope to the people in Elm Grove who flooded last year. The detention ponds now in place on Woodridge Village were designed to handle that much rain. But if we got 18″…

At this time, the SJRA is not releasing any water. Lake Conroe is at 199.84 feet. Lake Houston is down about three-quarters of a foot from its normal level.

Tropical Storm Laura

Tropical Storm Laura is currently racing west at 21 mph.
The outer tropical storm force winds could arrive in Louisiana by Tuesday morning next week. That’s about 12 hours after TD-14 arrives on the Texas coast.
Laura will likely intensify into a hurricane by the come it strikes the eastern Gulf coast.

Some Interaction Between Two Storms is Possible

Some models indicate interaction between TD 14 and Laura. That could slow TD 14’s forward motion over the Gulf. However, at this time, it is unclear whether Laura will have any influence on TD 14.

Preparation

Remember: Chance favors the prepared. Make sure you have fresh batteries. Stock your supplies. Fill your gas tank. Refill your prescriptions.

Check weather forecasts at least two or three times a day.

They get the information first.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020

1088 days since Hurricane Harvey

FEMA to Fund Additional Million Cubic Yards of Dredging from West Fork Mouth Bar Area

Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin announced today that FEMA will fund the dredging of an additional million cubic yards of sediment from the area around the San Jacinto West Fork Mouth Bar. The giant sand bar partially blocked the mouth of the West Fork during Harvey and backed water up. It contributed to the flooding of thousands of homes and businesses in Kingwood, Humble and Atascocita.

Only a skeleton of the above-water portion of the mouth bar remains. But water remains shallow on both sides of it. Note all the trees and little islands poking up between the bar and camera position. Photo taken 8/20/2020.

Ending a Three-Year Debate

The City and FEMA debated for almost three years about how much sediment Harvey deposited in the area between Kings Point and Atascocita Point. The disaster declaration following Harvey only allowed FEMA to fund dredging of sediment deposited by that storm, not to pay for any deposits there previously.

Back before Great Lakes removed its hydraulic dredge, the City commissioned TetraTech to determine the quantity. In April 2019, the City submitted TetraTech’s ninety-four-page report. Based on core sampling, TetraTech estimated that Harvey deposited approximately 1,012,000 cubic yards of sand/sediment. 

However, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) disputed the TetraTech’s conclusion. USACE pulled the Great Lakes dredge from the river on September 3, 2019, after dredging only 500,000 cubic yards from that area.

Now, FEMA has reversed course. It concurs with the City’s findings, thanks in part to Martin’s persistence. Martin is “elated” with FEMA’s ruling.

Before Dredging Can Begin…

Removal of this debris is pending:

  • Project identification in the Federal/State grant portal
  • Preparation of construction documents
  • Identification of disposal site(s)
  • Selection of the method of dredging
  • Cost estimates and construction bidding.

The City will finalize the timeline as it develops the documents above.

How Various Dredging Projects Add Up

FEMA’s initial Emergency West Fork dredging contract in 2018 resulted in the removal of 1,849,000 cubic yards of sand/sediment between US59 and the Mouth Bar. Subsequently, FEMA authorized removal of an additional 500,000 cubic yards near the Mouth Bar itself. That brought the total up to 2,349,000 cubic yards.

Subsequently, Martin, Senator Brandon Creighton and Representative Dan Huberty gained support from Governor Greg Abbott to provide a $50 Million grant for additional debris removal. Approximately $7 Million went to dredging the mouth bar land mass, a project which is still underway.

Huberty’s amendment to Senate Bill (SB) 500 set aside another $30 Million for Harris County for dredging at the confluence of the San Jacinto River and Lake Houston. The City is currently a sub-recipient of approximately $10 Million of those funds. Dredging will continue until the City exhausts the funds. According to Martin, the money should cover approximately 242,000 more cubic yards.

Then the FEMA money for the additional million cubic yards will kick in.

Said State Representative Dan Huberty, “After two years of showing FEMA the data, I am thrilled that we are allowed to continue this project due to the hard work of Mayor Pro Tem Martin and Mayor Turner. The funds we secured from the State during the last budget cycle to continue where FEMA left off are nearly depleted. This new funding source will let us complete this necessary and critical project. It is great news for our community. It also recognizes how important the Lake Houston Watershed is to our region.”

Other Lake Houston Dredging Projects

Approximately $10 Million of local funds are earmarked for the dredging activity within Lake Houston south of FM 1960. The City plans to coordinate with Harris County Flood Control District to utilize a portion of the $10 Million to remove the mouth bar obstruction at Roger’s Gully.

Rogers Gully Mouth Bar
Rogers Gully Mouth Bar

However, it won’t happen anytime soon. Based on the bond priorities pushed through Harris County by Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis, County funds will not be available until July 2021 at the earliest. And maybe not until March 2022.

Credits

Mayor Pro Tem Martin, Congressman Dan Crenshaw, State Representative Dan Huberty, State Senator Brandon Creighton, Texas Division Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd,  Mayor Sylvester Turner, and Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello have all worked together to make these projects happen.

Another view of the slowly disappearing San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2020

1088 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Tropical Depression 14 Headed into Gulf

Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive at the Texas Coast by Monday night. Source: NHC

Tropical depression #14 has formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC predicts the storm will move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center predicts arrival time of tropical storm force winds along the Texas Coast on Monday evening.

Threat to the NW Gulf Early- to Mid- Next Week.

Persons along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Review hurricane plans and be prepared to enact those plans this weekend.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Visible satellite images indicate that a tropical depression has formed over the NW Caribbean Sea. Satellite images also show the gradual formation of curved banding. The depression is moving toward the west/WNW.

Track

West to WNW motion should continue for the next 24-36 hours bringing the system toward the Yucatan. Forecasters predict that over the weekend, the system will turn toward the NW and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with a continued track toward the TX coast as high pressure builds westward from the SW Atlantic.

As of 8/20/2020, NOAA shows the cone of uncertainty pointing straight toward the upper Texas Coast.

Intensity

Conditions favor additional intensification over the western Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36 hours. Overall, conditions over the Gulf of Mexico will be increasing favorable for development of a tropical system, says Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist.

Second Storm Brewing; Wet Week Likely

A rare double whammy is possible for the Gulf Coast early next week. Forecasters at the NHC predict that Tropical Depression 13, now in the western Atlantic, will strengthen into a tropical storm tonight and into a hurricane by Monday morning. However, at this time (Thursday noon),forecasters are not predicting the storm’s track or intensity beyond Monday night.

A second tropical system, TD13, could make next week very wet and windy all along the Gulf Coast.
TD13 will likely arrive in Florida and the eastern Gulf around the same time as TD14 arrives at the Texas coast.

A high degree of uncertainty remains regarding the track of TD14 because of potential interactions with land. However, here is what forecasters predict as of Thursday morning.

Bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page for updates every few hours.

Preparedness

Now is a good time to start thinking about preparedness. Houston Methodist Hospital published an article last week about “How to Prepare for a Hurricane During COVID-19.”

It offers important advice for those who may be forced to shelter with friends and family and well as those who need to go to a public disaster shelter.

“While it may be nerve-wracking to go to a public shelter during a pandemic, know that your immediate safety during a hurricane takes priority over everything else,” says Methodist.

“Shelters will be modified to separate families as much as is feasible and hold fewer people, whether that be by walls separating rooms or by simply designating larger spaces that allow for greater distance between families,” said Lina Hildago, Harris County Judge, in an interview with Space City Weather. “We’re ready to institute temperature checks and have PPE (personal protective equipment) on hand for folks who need it. We’re also working with our first-responder community, making sure they not only have enough PPE on hand for any response, but that they are also trained on how to use it.”

Methodist advises that if you experience COVID-19 symptoms, you can speak to a Virtual Urgent Care provider 24/7. The provider will help you determine if testing is needed and advise you on where you should go.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2020

1087 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Two More Websites That Help You Understand Drainage and Flood Risk

Today, readers sent me links to two more websites that help you understand drainage and flood risk. The first by Texas Parks & Wildlife is called the Texas Watershed Viewer. The second is a FEMA site that estimates base flood elevations based on USGS data.

FEMA defines base flood elevation as “The elevation of surface water resulting from a flood that has a 1% chance of equaling or exceeding that level in any given year.” In other words, it’s how deep the water would be in a 100-year flood at any given spot.

Let’s take a look at each.

Texas Watershed Viewer

The Texas Watershed Viewer lets users identify local watersheds, sub-watersheds, river basins, and river sub-basins throughout the State of Texas.

To find your watershed and river basin, simply type your address into the search bar and press enter. The map will zoom into the address. From here, click anywhere on the map and the name of the sub watershed will appear. If you click the next arrow on the feature label, the name of the watershed will appear. If you click the next arrow again, the name of the river sub basin will appear followed by the larger river basin.

Clicking on Caney Creek showed the extent of the watershed. Clicking on the arrow within the green bar at the top of the info box changes the outline to match the river sub-basin or basin.

This lets you quickly visualize the extent of a watershed so you can see where water is coming from and going to.

After you click on map to see the feature’s name, you can view the geographic extent of the sub watershed, watershed, river sub basin, and river basin, by clicking the minus sign on the top left corner to zoom out from the address level to the boundaries of the other features. The boundaries of these features will be light blue. 

Other Texas Watershed Viewer tools

Zoom: You can zoom in on your neighborhood or zoom out to the entire state of Texas.

Layers: adds the layers window in the top right corner. You can turn the layers on and off by click on the check box.

Basemap gallery: lets you change the basemap of the viewer. The topographic map, for instance, is a useful layer because river, lakes, and streams are labeled.

Measure: lets you measure the distance from your home to a water feature.

Share: lets you show your friends what you see on social media.

Print: lets you print out a copy for your records.

Uses

This site helps viewers understand where water comes from and how it converges. As land is cleared and leveled, it also helps you understand where streams used to flow. (Note: This feature only works until background maps are updated, however.)

One reader used this feature to show how a developer had filled in natural drainage on the developer’s property and blocked off drainage from the reader’s subdivision. With three potential tropical systems moving in our direction at this moment, that information could be very useful if his home floods and he needs to call a lawyer.

Using the topographic base layer, you can also predict where and how runoff will flow during a flood. Many homes near the East Fork flooded during Imelda when Caney Creek captured the Triple PG mine and started flowing south through an area where several other creeks converge. Homeowners report being flooded from overland flow before the creek rose. The topographic feature shows the path that the water likely took.

Those who have a passion for understanding the physical world around them could spend days exploring this website.

FEMA Estimated Base Flood Elevation Viewer

Where Caney Creek, Peach Creek and the San Jacinto East Fork all come together in FEMA’s Base Flood Elevation Viewer.
Legend shows estimated water depths in image above.

Like most flood maps of this sort, you can turn layers on and off and change base maps.

For instance, by clicking buttons, you can have it show the estimated flood extent and depths for a 1%-chance flood and a .02%-chance flood. You can also view stream center lines, cross sections, and view detailed information on flood insurance rate maps.

You can even activate a split screen mode and compare different features side by side, i.e., ten and hundred year flood extents.

The point of this whole site is to understand not just the extent of floods, but their DEPTH as well.

Uses

FEMA says information from this site helps:

  • Inform personal risk decisions related to the purchase of flood insurance and coverage levels.
  • Inform local and individual building and construction approaches.
  • Prepare local risk assessments, Hazard Mitigation Plans, Land Use Plans, etc.
  • Prepare information for Letter of Map Amendment (LOMA) submittals.

Helpful Where Flood Maps Not Yet Available

The BLE (Base Level Engineering) Data in this website provides flood hazard information where flood insurance rate maps may not yet be available. We saw this, for instance, in Woodridge Village (north of Elm Grove) where flood maps stopped at the Harris/Montgomery county line. LJA Engineering claimed there were no floodplain issues on the Montgomery County side of the line. In fact, most of the Woodridge Village was in a flood plain as you can clearly see below; it just had not been mapped yet.

From FEMA’s Estimated Base Flood Elevation Viewer. Light purple represents 1% flood zone. Dark purple represents .2% flood zone.

Compare that to FEMA’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer below and you will immediately see the difference.

FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer shows danger stopping abruptly at the county line.

FEMA’s estimated base-flood elevation viewer helps reputable land developers identify flood risk, expected flood elevation, and estimated flood depth where Base Level Engineering has been prepared (i.e., as in the Lake Houston Area).

Reportedly, the information in this tool is not yet Atlas-14 compliant. But it’s still better than nothing.

“Buyer Aware”

The more tools you have to evaluate the purchase of insurance and property, the safer you will be.

No one tool can do everything. But together, the can make you “buyer aware.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2020

1087 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 335 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Approximately 1,700 Plaintiffs in Three Lawsuits Against Sand Mines Now Joined in Multi-District Litigation

Three lawsuits representing a total of approximately 1700 plaintiffs against more than 50 San-Jacinto-River-Basin sand mines have been joined in Multi-District Litigation (MDL). The lawsuits each arose out of flooding during Hurricane Harvey. Particulars of each suit vary slightly, but they all have common elements.

Basis for Lawsuits

At a high level, plaintiffs allege that the sand mines failed to take steps that reduced discharge of sediment, silt and sand. Floodwaters then carried sediment from the mines downstream, they say, where it clogged the river, backed water up, and contributed to flooding of plaintiffs’ homes and businesses.

Sand mines inundated in the floodway of the west fork of the San Jacinto during Hurricane Harvey in 2017

The three lawsuits include:

Plaintiffs allege negligence, gross negligence, negligence per se and nuisance. They seek exemplary damages.

First Suit Filed in 2018; Two More Intervene in 2020

Spurlock and Webster filed the Ellisor Lawsuit in 2018. The Potts Firm, and Arnold and Itkin intervened in the Ellisor suit in August of 2019 just before the statute of limitations ran out, but due to some procedural rulings later re-filed separate suits in February of this year.

The Ellisor suit had been in the works for 18 months when the Del Pino and Nelson cases were filed. In law, “intervening” means obtaining the court’s permission to enter into a lawsuit which has already started between other parties and to file a complaint stating the basis for a claim in the existing lawsuit. 

However, the other suits had some plaintiffs from jurisdictions other than Harris County. So instead of just consolidating the lawsuits, defendants filed a motion with the Texas Supreme Court requesting multi-district litigation. Defendants and plaintiffs also wrestled over procedural issues such as jurisdiction, venue, dismissal, the judge, and more.

Supreme Court Mandates Multi-District Litigation

As usually happens with multiple suits in different counties, the Supreme Court ordered one judge to oversee all of the cases to ensure rulings were consistent. A “stay order” put everything on hold for months. Webster and Spurlock have not been able to move their case forward until these other issues were worked out.

The Texas Supreme Court appointed former Judge Sylvia Matthews to hear pretrial motions on all the cases.

Judge Matthews has reportedly ordered a status conference with all parties after Labor Day to discuss outstanding issues. If and when the cases go to trial, they go back to the original trial court.

“Now that the stay has been lifted, we’re hoping that we’ll be able to start moving forward with discovery,” said Kim Spurlock, one of the lawyers in the Ellisor case.

New Case Number

The three cases in the Multi-District Litigation have been consolidated under a new Master File for those seeking information about them in the future.

See: Harvey Sand Litigation, Harris County 281st District Court, MDL 19-0500, Cause No. 2020-48333.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/17/2020

1084 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.