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Floodplains and Affordability for First-Time Homebuyers

5/14/26 – Homes in floodplains typically sell at discounts compared to safer homes on higher ground. Therefore, they tend to attract a higher proportion of first-time home buyers. Why? For the vast majority of first-time buyers, affordability drives buying decisions more than other considerations, especially since flood risk is hard to understand.

Let’s look at some recent studies and start with the most affordable markets for first-time buyers.

Zillow Rankings of Market Affordability

In February 2026, a Zillow study identified large U.S. metro areas where buying a home is an affordable alternative to renting.

The study ranked the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas based on their proportions of:

Income spent on rent (the rent burden: less spent means greater ability to save for down payment)
Affordable listings for median-income households (more supply drives down prices)
Affordable listings per 100 rental households (more choices mean greater bargaining power)
Share of population between 29 and 43 (prime ages for first-time buyers).

Based on those criteria…

Houston ranked fifth in the country.
Zillow study

In Houston, first-time homebuyers spend only 23% of their income on rent. And 40% of the City’s housing stock is within the price range of median-income households. So, Houston is one of the most affordable markets for first-time homebuyers.

Flooding Connection?

But are first-time homebuyers really more likely to buy homes in floodplains?” Research is illuminating. Short answer – “Yes. But not always.” It depends on where you look.

Inland vs. Coastal Floodplains

Less wealthy first-time buyers are often disproportionately represented in inland flood-prone areas. Why? Land is cheaper there and affordability drives decision making.

However, the pattern differs in coastal flood zones. Flooded coastal homes still command premiums because of their views, proximity to beaches, water access and recreational value.

CFPB and Freddie Mac Research

A 2025 Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report found that mortgage applicants in inland FEMA flood zones generally had:

Lower incomes
Lower credit scores
Smaller down payments
Less ability to self-insure.

“Approved mortgage applicants in inland flood zones have lower credit scores and income than approved mortgage applicants for properties in minimal flood risk areas,” says the report.

Freddie Mac studied Houston and Harris County home prices before and after Harvey. Freddie Mac found that floodplain properties sell at a discount and that, after flooding, that discount doubled.

*Screen capture from “Unravelling Perceptions of Flood Risk: Examining Changes in Home Prices in Harris County, Texas in the Aftermath of Hurricane Harvey.”* *by Freddie Mac.*

Lower prices naturally attract more cost-sensitive buyers, including many first-time buyers.

Other studies suggest younger buyers and buyers with less flood experience DO NOT give as much weight to flood risk as older, more experienced buyers. One 2025 housing-market study found younger buyers in flood-prone regions often did not demand meaningful price discounts for risk exposure, while older buyers did.

Compared to safer homes on higher ground, inland floodplains typically feature:

Cheaper land
Newer suburban growth
Fringe development areas
Weaker zoning or drainage standards
Higher proportions of entry-level housing.

This pattern is especially visible around rapidly growing metro areas such as Houston. Here, developable non-floodplain land near employment centers is increasingly scarce and expensive.

A recent Houston Chronicle investigation found 65,000 homes built in mapped floodplains across the Houston region since Harvey, partly because flood-prone land has higher profit margins.

Why First-time Buyers are Particularly Vulnerable

Several factors converge in the “first-time” market:

Lower purchase price dominates decision-making
Buyers may underestimate flood probability
Insurance costs are poorly understood
FEMA maps can understate actual risk
Mortgage qualification focuses on payment affordability more than flood-risk; lenders simply require flood insurance.

There is also evidence that many buyers misunderstand flood insurance. Surveys show a substantial share of Americans incorrectly believe homeowners insurance covers flood damage.

In Houston Region

These dynamics can become especially pronounced because:

Floodplain land is often among the last large tracts available near growth corridors
Drainage rules vary by jurisdiction; some keep standards low to attract growth
First-time buyers may not have experienced prior floods
Many buyers speak English as a second language, as in Colony Ridge
Rapidly changing hydrology can outpace FEMA map updates.

That creates a situation where entry-level subdivisions may be marketed as “compliant” with current regulations while still carrying substantial, unrecognized flood risk.

A Personal Testament

I once fell into that exact trap when I was much younger. I bought a house on Spring Creek in the Dallas area. The developer promised me, “You’re two feet above the 100-year floodplain.” That sounded safe. Plus, the view was gorgeous and the bank was willing to loan us the money. We bought it.

But within three years, we flooded. I worked with the City Engineer and Army Corps to re-evaluate flooding on the creek. They found that because of upstream development in those three years, we went from two feet above the 100-year floodplain to 10 feet below it.

We sold the house at a $60,000 loss and moved on. In today’s dollars, that would equal $200,000.

Somewhere along the way, I learned that “Built to code” does not necessarily mean “low flood risk.” In many jurisdictions, it simply means the structure meets the minimum regulatory elevation or mitigation standard tied to existing maps and assumptions which could be decades old.

Most first time buyers don’t realize that flood risk can change faster than flood maps. Much faster. They also don’t realize that the chances of getting flooded in a 100-year floodplain during the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage is 26% – a more than one in four chance.

Buyers beware.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/26

3180 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Houston Chronicle Misses Many Points on HCFCD Leadership Discussion

The Houston Chronicle published an editorial about the leader of the Harris County Flood Control District, Tina Petersen, Ph.D., this morning. Harris County Commissioners will discuss her job performance tomorrow in executive session. The move was prompted by the detailed disclosure on May 1, 2026, of the status of Community Development Block Grant Projects (CDBG).

Petersen spread sunshine in the form of vague generalities about the projects at Commissioners Court until Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey started demanding detailed information. The results were shocking. Especially for 11 CDBG projects with a deadline of 2/28/27 – roughly nine months away. The projects usually take 1-2 years to complete. Recently, one took FOUR years!

Point/Counterpoint

Because the Chronicle is a copyrighted publication, I will quote only the passages that struck me as “off the wall,” then state why I disagree with them.

What Harris County Needs?

The Chronicle headline read: “Harris County needs stable leadership at Flood Control — not backroom politics.”

My headline would have read, “Harris County needs results, accountability and transparency from Flood Control – not excuses.”

Worse Time?

Their editorial board recommends keeping her and says that this discussion “couldn’t come at a worse time.” Actually, it could in my opinion. It could come when there’s no longer any hope of saving hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding.

At the moment, there may still be time to turn some of the projects around. The editorial board seems to assume that if a project is in construction, the GLO will automatically grant an extension. But the GLO has repeatedly said that any extension(s) would depend on how close any given project is to completion.

The Chronicle also doesn’t consider what would happen if a project were started, but not completed in time – a nightmare scenario from a financial point of view.

All But Two Projects under Contract?

The Chronicle claims, “All but two [emphasis added] of those projects are under contract for construction, putting the flood control district in a good position to formally request an extension on the federal funds…”

HCFCD’s own spreadsheet shows that four construction contracts have not been awarded yet – Genoa Red Bluff, Kluge, Isom Street and Dinner Creek Stormwater Detention Basins.

Worse, nine of the 11 projects have not yet billed a penny. Only two have billed anything and one of those is seriously behind schedule,

The Chronicle should understand that “under contract” does not mean “under construction.” It can take contractors months to mobilize for construction.

Undermine Progress?

The Chronicle claims, “A leadership change at this juncture would likely undermine that progress.”

What progress are they referring to?

Responsible Governance?

The Chronicle believes that changing leadership “would be a return to the bad old days of Commissioners Court, defined by opaque maneuvering, where political relationships often took precedence over responsible governance.”

Do you mean like when they hired Petersen?

To my way of thinking, responsible governance is governance that delivers results. The Chronicle seems to defend the squandering of tax dollars. A change in leadership would show GLO and HUD that Harris County does not accept failure and misdirection.

Lost Confidence?

The Chronicle stated, “This turmoil is what we feared would happen after County Judge Lina Hidalgo stated she “lost confidence” in Petersen.

I believe Hidalgo had valid concerns. The flood control district was not being transparent enough in providing timely updates. It was not providing actionable data to commissioners and the public regarding projects that were in jeopardy of losing funding.

Scapegoating?

“We don’t think the current executive should be scapegoated,” says the Chronicle, “… and neither should any county resident who cares about keeping floodwater out of their living room.”

Huh? Since when is making a leader accountable for the performance of her team “scapegoating”? And how are county residents being scapegoated? They’re the victims here.

Productive Relationships?

The Chronicle also believes that Petersen “helped rebuild productive relationships with the General Land Office and Department of Housing and Urban Development…”

Name your sources, Chronicle! Put quotes around their praise so that other media can verify what they said. Vague generalities got us into this mess.

Reasons?

“If there’s a reason to fire Peterson, tell the public what it is,” said the Chronicle editorial.

Duh again! She is failing and jeopardizing hundreds of millions of dollars. Here’s the link to her own spreadsheet again. If the Chronicle leadership missed deadlines and financial projections by years, how long do you think it would be before Hearst pulled the plug?

What happened to transparency, accountability and results? Do those no longer count in the Chronicle’s world?

You might also want to check previous department head turnover, Chronicle. Four years ago, 16 of 20 department heads turned over with whole layers of management underneath them. Where were you then, Editorial Board?

Non Sequiturs?

The Chronicle editorial claims that if local leaders remove Petersen, it could lead to HCFCD “being put under state control.”

This may have something to do with legislation proposed in 2025 that died in committee. The Chronicle doesn’t give specifics. It just says, “The state Legislature has proposed a bill that would put the district under state control.” What does that have to do with Tina Petersen’s performance?

Here’s another non sequitur, Chronicle! Rep. Dennis Paul did introduce a bill (HB2068 in 2025) that would have created a river-basin-wide flood-control district. The Chronicle correctly stated that the bill would have had directors appointed by the governor. But the Houston Chronicle omitted the fact that it only would have been created after voters in individual counties approved it. Please explain how voter approval infringes on local control in your minds?

And by the way, “legislatures” don’t introduce bills; “legislators” do. Just FYI.

Rash Decisions?

“We urge Commissioners Court to table any rash decisions on flood control leadership on Thursday,” says the editorial.

News flash, Chronicle! This train has been coming down the tracks for years.

Open Discussion of Personnel Matters?

The editorial concludes with the admonition that any discussion of Petersen’s future “should be discussed openly…”

Such public discussions can result in people becoming virtually unemployable for the rest of their careers, which is why state law allows and county policy encourages such discussions in Executive Session.

But you’re entitled to your opinions. And I respect your right to voice them. Please just make sure they’re based on facts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/13/26

3179 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

May 2026 Northpark Expansion Update

5/11/2026 – Since my last update in April on the Northpark Drive expansion project, the most visible changes have occurred at the south entry pond on US59 and at the approach for the eastern ramp for the bridge over the UnionPacific Railroad Tracks.

Contractors have excavated the south pond deeper and paved up to the start of the ramp. Compare the photos below taken today with those taken on 4/24/26.

Photos Taken on 5/11/2026

Let’s start at 59. The south pond is still under construction. This morning, contractors were pumping it out. The Harris County Flood Warning System gage at 59 and the West Fork received 1.2 inches of rain overnight.

*Looking S at southern entry pond.* *Note pump in upper right.*

*Reverse angle. The north entry pond looks further along*.

*Looking E toward 494 from over 59 shows comparative progress of both ponds.*

*The western ramp for the bridge will go in unpaved area in the middle of the frame. However, they have not yet started on that.*

*Intersection of Loop 494 and Northpark, looking E. When the inbound and outbound surface lanes are complete the bridge itself will go up where traffic now pinches down to the center lanes.*

*However, before completion of the surface lanes, traffic and crossing signals must be moved out of the way.*

*The last few feet on each side of the tracks remain unpaved for now.*

*Father E, contractors have not yet paved the eastern ramp.*

*Walls for the ramp appear virtually complete. Note fresh cement at base of ramp in upper right.*

*That fresh cement is the second major change since the last update.*

*The rest of the way to the eastern terminus of the project just past Russell-Palmer has not changed much since the last update.*

*Looking E at Russell Palmer intersection*

For More Information

See the project page of the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority website, including a three-week look-ahead schedule.

You can also search ReduceFlooding.com using the keyword “Northpark.”

Finally, Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ10 will hold a board meeting on 5/14/2026 starting at 8 AM at the Kingwood Community Center, 4102 Rustic Woods Drive, Kingwood, TX 77345. Here is the Agenda. They will discuss not only the current phase of the project, but a regional detention basin and the next phase of the road expansion as well. This board packet gives you a sense of what they will review.

The public will have a chance to ask question and make comments at the start of the meeting.

When complete, Northpark will be the first all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood for approximately 80,000 people.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/11/2026

3177 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Commissioners Will Discuss HCFCD Executive Director in Executive Session

5/9/2026 – During the 5/14/2026 Harris County Commissioner’s Court Meeting, Commissioners will discuss Harris County Flood Control District Executive Director Dr. Tina Petersen in Executive Session with an eye to taking possible action.

Item #490 on the Agenda reads:

Request by the Commissioner of Precinct 3 for an Executive Session pursuant to Texas Government Code Section 551.074(a) for discussion and possible action regarding the Executive Director of the Harris County Flood Control District.

Section 551.074 allows commissioners to conduct sessions in private when deliberating the employment, evaluation, reassignment, duties, discipline, or dismissal of a public officer or employee.

Performance Issues

Petersen’s performance has come under increasing scrutiny in the last few years as HCFCD projects have bogged down. For instance:

Construction of the Mercer Basin in Rodney Ellis’ Precinct One was started in 2022 on an expedited basis. But what should have taken one year took four. The project just finished. (See Item 389).
Funding for the reconstruction of Poor Farm Ditch in West U and South Side Place was announced in June 2023. But bid approval is on the May 14, 2026 agenda. (See Item 275).
The construction contract for the Woodridge/Taylor Gully project was awarded in March 2026. Seven weeks later, Item 124 on the agenda shows that HCFCD is just now requesting access to the site. As of yesterday, no construction equipment was onsite yet…not even a construction trailer.
Item 390 shows thathundreds of millions of dollars of CDBG-MIT and CDBG-DR projects have slipped so badly, they likely won’t meet state and federal deadlines. Of the 11 projects in the DR category only two are in construction and one of those is already seriously behind schedule. Construction bids have not yet been awarded on four others totaling approximately $90 million. Less than 9.5 months remain before deadlines kick in on projects that typically take one to two years.

Despite all that, Item 473 on the agenda shows that Petersen is requesting renewal of a $12 million contract to provide “program management, project management, construction management and inspection services for the development and implementation of CDBG-DR and CDBG-MIT projects.”

$90,000 Raise Last Year

Despite her department’s less-than-stellar performance, Commissioners awarded Petersen a $90,000 raise last year. That brought her salary to approximately $434,000 per year.

The big question at this point is…

“Will commissioners start projects they may not have money to finish?”

The $868 million in CDBG-DR and -MIT projects is on a reimbursement basis only when the job is done. Commissioners could spend a lot of money and if the projects don’t get done, they might not get reimbursed.

Will 5/14/26 be Dr. Tina Petersen’s “Day of Reckoning” that Commissioner Ellis warned about last month?

The irony here is that we had management at flood control that was doing an excellent job…until Democrats on Commissioners Court pushed them out. You can see on the graph below what has happened since.

HCFCD 2026 Q1 spending — *From HCFCD.org/Activity as of 4/1/2026*. *Spending by project phase since start of 2018 Flood Bond Program.*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/9/2026

3175 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

An Invitation to GLO Commissioner Dawn Buckingham

5/8/26 – The Texas General Land Office (GLO), despite all the good it does, has a serious conflict of interest under Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, MD.

Administratively, the Texas Permanent School Fund Corporation resides within the GLO and Buckingham has a seat on its board.

The Permanent School Fund has reportedly invested $140 million in a floodplain development in the Lake Houston Area, according to State Representative Steve Toth.

The 5300+ acre development lies at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork, and Spring, Cypress and Turkey Creeks. It is some of the most flood-prone land in southeast Texas.

Floodplains Streams from Ryko Drainage Study — *Scarborough purchased the land (outlined in red) from Ryko last year.*

So, why does a state agency responsible for flood mitigation invest in a flood-prone development? That question has never been adequately answered.

GLO administers $14.3 billion worth of flood-mitigation funds in Texas for the federal government.
GLO Website

Scarborough Area in center. From FEMA’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. These are from old flood maps. New draft maps show the situation above is far worse. Cross-hatch = floodway. Aqua = 100-year floodplain. Brown = 500-year.

One of the leading hydrologists in the area has told me that developing this land would be like “aiming a fire hose at Kingwood and Humble.”

Information Blackout

Even worse, the GLO has stonewalled all attempts to determine the extent and nature of the PSF’s investment and terms of its contract with Scarborough, the Dallas-based developer, that bought the land from Ryko last year.

All they have told reporters is that “our plans are changing.” But how? What does that mean? Are they changing a street layout? Or backing out of the investment altogether? Could they even back out of the investment at this point? What are the conditions that would let the PSF and GLO back out even if they wanted to?

Flood victims still traumatized with PTSD need specifics, not vaguely worded generalities intended to soothe an anxious public before the election.

According to FEMA, flood mitigation typically costs six times more than flood prevention. So, the decision to finance this development could easily turn into a billion dollar public expense someday: $140 mm + (6 x $140 mm) = $980 mm.

Invitation to Buckingham

So, here’s an invitation to Commissioner Buckingham. Please come to Houston and explain the thinking behind this investment. Look your audience in the eye and be specific.

Don’t rely on vaguely worded press releases with prosaic flatulence like “Our plans are changing.” Tell us how they are changing. Do you intend to turn this land into a state park? To me, that’s the only positive that could come from this misguided episode of “As the Rivers Rise.”

Until Then, Sign Petition

Absent that, I urge everyone in the Lake Houston region to sign the petition against the Scarborough development. Make your concerns heard. It’s your money and your safety.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/8/26

3174 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

MoCo P4 Commissioner Matt Gray on Growth, Flooding, Responsible Development

5/6/27 – Montgomery County Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray addressed a packed East Montgomery County Chamber luncheon today about the often conflicting issues of property rights, growth, flooding and public safety. Both during the meeting and in an hour-long, one-on-one interview after it, he stressed the need for responsible development that mitigated downstream flooding impacts.

Managing Growth

Montgomery County has consistently ranked as one of the fastest growing counties in America. And Gray’s Precinct 4 alone expects to add another 14,000 to 16,000 rooftops in the next five years.

Gray is finishing his first term and running for another. “If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you’ve heard me talk about steering and managing the growth. That’s been my mission and my office’s mission,” Gray told the crowd.

In that regard, he talked about helping to update Montgomery County’s:

Catching Up with Past Growth

He also discussed catching up with past growth. “We’re just now addressing issues and roads that have been a burr under the saddle for 20, 25 years,” said Gray. “You get all these new developments off a lonely country road. Well, it’s no longer a lonely country road. Next thing you know…you can’t move. And I get 50 calls a day.”

Funding Challenges and Triumphs

Gray also talked about his efforts in Washington, D.C. and with the Texas General Land Office to fund badly needed flood-mitigation and drainage projects. In the “win column,” Gray points to:

De-snagging (eliminating logjams) on Caney Creek, Peach Creek, East Fork of SanJac, and White Oak Creek. That grant from the Texas General Land Office (GLO) has been awarded. Work is kicking off in 2026. Full contract value is $60.4 million with $36.4 million being spent in East Montgomery County. Contractors will clean debris out of almost 100 miles of the tributaries – just within Precinct 4.
Completing $10 million in outfall drainage improvements using federal dollars (ARPA) to clean out an estimated 138,000 linear feet of outfalls throughout the precinct
Taylor Gully clean up and maintenance
A $7.7 million grant for a historically “never-been-drained” neighborhood – Porter Heights
Partnership with HCFCD to install and maintain 4 flood gages on major bridges/watersheds – all visible on Harris County Flood Warning System. They include:
- Caney Creek @ US 59
- Caney Creek @ Firetower Rd.
- Peach Creek @ FM 1485 East
- Peach Creek @ Roman Forest Blvd.
HCFCD Woodridge Basin – Entered into an interlocal agreement with HCFCD so that their new detention basin can tie into existing MoCo basins – a win for both Harris and Montgomery counties.

Focus Now Shifting to Execution

“It was a nightmare to get the grants,” said Gray. “But I’ve got an awesome team that does an exceptional job.” Under his leadership, they applied for $130 million in grants and so far have received almost $70 million.

His focus now has shifted to executing those projects.

Gray, a construction expert and project management professional, has employed a number of strategies to improve his staff’s efficiency. He has:

Developed focused and comprehensive maintenance schedules by neighborhood. In 2025 alone, his team dug out more than 232,000 linear feet of drainage ditches (approximately 44 miles)
Worked with the Houston-Galveston Area Council to help bring more funding to the region and MoCo
Shifted to in-house culvert inspections and enforcement
Developed Interlocal agreements with MUDs
Continually applied for federal grants for drainage projects
Used constables to address floodplain violations such as unpermitted work and illegal dumping
Worked directly with the County’s Floodplain Administrator’s office to ensure flagged properties are brought into compliance.

Gray emphasizes action. As the Chamber’s moderator said, “Everyone in this room knows that – you and your office – when you see something that needs to be done, you just do it. You find a way to make it happen!”

“We Want Responsible Development”

Gray continued, “Our message is ‘we want responsible development.’ So what does that mean? It means a lot of things to me including, ‘we don’t want to flood our new residents or people downstream.'”

“We spent a lot of man hours sitting together, working through the drainage criteria manuals,” he added. “And we addressed the Beat-the-Peak issue. We struck that out and built in a lot more detention requirements than ever existed previously in this county.”

Beat-the-Peak refers to a loophole in previous regulations that let developers avoid building detention basins if they could prove they could get their stormwater to a river before the peak of a flood arrived.

The theory was that that would not be adding to the peak. But in practice, it encouraged everyone to get their water to the river as quickly as possible – exactly the opposite of what you want to do in a flood.

Gray who has fond memories of growing up near the East Fork San Jacinto and FM1485 is haunted now by the sight of flooded neighborhoods there.

If anyone can make a difference, I’m sure he can. He’s a man on a mission.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/6/26

3172 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New Hurricane Forecast Cone Graphics for 2026 Season

5/5/26 – Hurricane forecast cones will have a new look for 2026 according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As part of a suite of product improvements, NHC will implement two new tropical products and services:

A new operational hurricane track cone map
A new storm surge alerts for Hawaii.

“These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Michael Brennan, director, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

Improved Tropical Cyclone Forecast Cone

The tropical cyclone graphic helps communities remain vigilant from the dangers posed by wind hazards associated with hurricanes and tropical storms, including in locations away from the coast. In 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas.

The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds. See sample below.

*Example of 2026 version of cone graphic for Hurricane Milton (2024) shows inland watches and warnings. (Image credit: NOAA National Hurricane Center)*

What to know about the new cone graphic:

Incorporates all land-based (coastal and inland) tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands
Uses single shading for the entire 5-day outlook cone
Legend depicts symbols for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect (represented by diagonal pink and blue lines)
Full and intermediate Tropical Cyclone Advisories are/will be publicly available on hurricanes.gov.

Another Experimental Feature

NHC will also introduce a new experimental version of the NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone. Since its debut in 2002, the cone has shown where the tropical cyclone’s forecast center is likely to go, based on past forecast calculations.

Beginning in 2026, the experimental cone will use ellipses anchored at each NHC forecast point, allowing for the experimental cone to capture a range of possibilities for both the speed and direction of the tropical cyclone’s forecast path. NHC will experiment changing two aspects of the cone using ellipses (instead of circles) to account for errors in speed and direction, and the cone will include 90% of forecast track possibilities, instead of the traditional 67% forecast error.

The experimental cone graphic will be available on hurricanes.gov for full and intermediate advisories. During the experimental phase, technical issues could affect the timeliness or availability of the graphic.

New Storm Surge Products for Hawaii

New products and services for the Hawaiian Islands include storm surge watches and warnings and a peak storm surge graphic. This expands the NHC’s storm surge products and services that are currently serving the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of America coastline, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

*2026 example of a new Potential Storm Surge Watch and Warning Graphic for the Hawaiian Islands by NOAA*

What to know about the new storm surge products for Hawaii:

Deliver probability-based forecasts of water and storm surge levels within 72 hours of hurricane impacts
Incorporate forecast inputs such as storm track, wind intensity, and wind radii
Are publicly available for the main Hawaiian Islands.

These new and improved products and services are a continuation of NHC’s focus to improve public safety messaging and advance the public’s understanding of hazards associated with tropical storms.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/5/2026 based on press release from NHC

3171 Days since Hurricane Harvey

HCFCD Document Shows It Misled Commissioners, Public on CDBG Funding Worth Hundreds of Millions

5/4/2026 – On May 1, 2026, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) finally submitted a detailed spreadsheet demanded by Harris County Commissioners. It shows key milestones in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) projects receiving $868 million in federal funding.

The data raises two red flags:

Only 11 of 28 projects will meet deadlines
Construction bids far below initial estimates could leave tens of millions of dollars on the table.

Here is the detailed spreadsheet. The data directly contradicts rosy, high-level claims made by Dr. Tina Petersen, HCFCD’s executive director, in Commissioners Court on January 8, 2026. At that time…

Petersen assured commissioners that HCFCD was “ahead of schedule.”

So, let’s look at the deadlines with the detailed information now in hand. This story has the sad feeling of a football game with the home team down 30 points and only three minutes left on the scoreboard clock.

Deadlines Looming

The 28 CDBG projects are split into two groups with different deadlines:

11 CDBG-Disaster Relief (DR) worth $322 million
17 CDBG-Mitigation (MIT) worth $546 million.

DR projects have, by far, the tightest deadline – February 28, 2027. MIT projects have longer; 50% of that money must be spent by March 31, 2028, with the remainder spent by 2032. So, let’s look at DR projects now and save the MIT discussion for another day.

New Doc Predicts Only Five DR Projects Will Beat 2/28/27 Deadline

Of the 11 DR projects, HCFCD now predicts that only five will beat their deadline. (Estimate “substantial completion” dates shown in parentheses below.)

Brookglen Stormwater Detention Basin (SWDB) (12/21/2026)
Keegans Bayou SWDB (12/18/26)
Arbor Oaks (10/25/26)
Lauder SWDB (12/26/2026)
Jackson Bayou SWDB (9/3/2026)

Of these five projects, HCFCD is only actually moving dirt on two so far.

Arbor Oaks (30% complete with 51% of construction days elapsed)
Brookglen (8% complete with 9% of construction time elapsed).

Can they be completed in time? The Arbor Oaks job is a cautionary example. Contractors have completed only 30% of the job in half the allotted time.

Six DR Projects Now Predicted to Miss 2/28/27 Deadline

According to HCFCD’s latest spreadsheet, the six projects below will miss their deadlines. Construction bids on four of the six have not even been awarded yet (Genoa, Kluge, Isom, Dinner).

Genoa Red Bluff Regional SWDB (11/72027)
East TC Jester SWDB (3/4/2027)
Kluge SWDB (6/10/2027)
Greens Bayou Midreach Channel Conveyance Improvements (5/11/27)
Isom SWDB (6/19/2027)
Dinner Creek SWDB (3/24/28)

HCFCD is not moving dirt on ANY of the projects in this second group yet, though a construction trailer is on the East TC Jester Site and clearing reportedly started last week.

Less than 10 months remain on the game clock for the 11 DR projects.

How Reliable are Completion-Date Estimates?

But how much can we depend on HCFCD projections given delays and promises to date? We should remember that under Petersen, HCFCD attempted to build the Mercer SWDB on an expedited basis in ONE YEAR. It took FOUR!

Is There Flexibility in Deadline?

The Texas General Land Office (GLO), which administers US Department of Housing and Urban Development CDBG funds in Texas, has given itself a year after 2/28/27 to close out all DR jobs.

GLO might be able to give up a few months of that year – if projects are close to completion. For instance, several projects in the second group are currently projected to miss the deadline by less than three months.

However, GLO needs the rest of that year to do its work. Beyond that year, it would literally take an act of Congress to extend the deadline. Good luck with that, given the current political gridlock in Washington.

All Construction Bids Lower than Estimates So Far

Close examination of the HCFCD CDBG spreadsheet shows that ALL DR construction bids so far have come in lower than engineers’ estimates. This could create a budget surplus.

A GLO spokesperson says that in cases like that, the money could be shifted to other projects within the group that might have a deficit. Potentially, extra projects might also be possible.

However, at this stage of the game, finding a shovel-ready project that could be bundled into the DR group would be difficult. Any surplus would likely be grouped into a Disaster Recovery Reallocation Program (DRRP) at some future date.

We saw this recently when the GLO allocated unspent funds from disasters before Harvey to Harvey-related projects. That sweetened HCFCD’s DR pot by more than $100 million.

At this very moment, county and GLO officials are scrambling to identify eligible projects. However, construction experts I talked to doubt there’s time to do them before the deadline – even if one or more could be identified.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2026

3170 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Still Time to Sign Petition Against Upstream Floodplain Development

5/02/26 – There’s still time to sign the petition against Scarborough’s 5300+ acre floodplain development upstream from the Lake Houston Area between Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork. One of the region’s leading hydrologists told me that if it gets developed, it would be like aiming a firehose at Humble and Kingwood.

Why This Land Should Not Be Developed

This is one of the most flood-prone areas in the entire Houston region. See this 30-second video of wetlands that lace the area.

*https://reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Scarborough-20260502.mov*

Also see FEMA’s pre-Atlas-14 flood map below.

New flood maps show the situation is even worse than it appears above. The area is about half the size of Kingwood and exceedingly flat.

*Looking NW at Scarborough property at confluence of Spring Creek (l) and San Jacinto West Fork (r).*

Near the confluence, dry land would be under at least 25 feet of water in another flood like Harvey.

Just this morning, at 8 AM after a mere 4 inches of rain, the Harris County Flood Warning System showed the river was in danger of overflowing near the bridge – the only such channel in the area.

*From HarrisCountyFWS.org at 8AM on 5/2/26*

This is just a dangerous place to build, at least in my opinion.

GLO Backing Developer

Yet strangely, the Texas General Land Office, which is responsible for $14 billion dollars of HUD flood-mitigation money in Texas, is a financial partner in the development. Even worse, the GLO refuses to explain why, what the terms of its investment are, and how much of your tax money it has invested. Print out the poster below, and share it with your friends and family.

*For a high res PDF suitable for printing, click here.*

Please Sign Petition NOW

But above all, if you haven’t yet signed the petition protesting this development, do it NOW!

A Friendswood executive once told me they looked at extending Kingwood Drive across this property but gave up on the idea because it would have cost too much to do it safely.

So, read the details of the petition at Change.org and please sign it. It will only take a minute and could save your home someday. Not to mention, a lot of your tax dollars now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/2/2026

3168 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

FEMA Restores BRIC Funding

5/1/2026 – According to FEMA, its BRIC program has been infused with $1 billion to help mitigate the impact of future disasters. The agency also immediately provided previously cancelled funds to states.

BRIC stands for Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities. The program aims to reduce the cost of future disasters by awarding grants that help prevent damage.

FEMA studies show that every dollar spent on prevention avoids six dollars in future damage costs. However, FEMA had announced the termination of BRIC grants in 2025.

According to the American Flood Coalition (AFC), “The BRIC announcement came one day after former Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin was sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Since assuming this role, Secretary Mullin has eliminated a DHS policy requiring secretarial approval for payments over $100,000.”

BRIC is BACK

After the year-long pause, FEMA has introduced several programmatic changes, including a heightened focus on infrastructure, construction-ready projects, the adoption of up-to-date building codes, and a new scoring rubric.

Key changes include:

Smaller awards. While total funding has increased by $250 million to $1 billion, individual projects are capped at $20 million, allowing funding to reach more communities. No single applicant (e.g., state) may receive more than 15% of total available funding.
Construction-ready infrastructure is the priority. This cycle favors projects ready to break ground, especially traditional infrastructure projects protecting transportation, utilities, water systems, communications, and public buildings, with clear design progress and risk reduction benefits. Phased projects are not permitted in this funding cycle.
Streamlined scoring rubric. Applications are scored across six criteria (100 points total), with construction readiness (30 points), building codes (20), and risk reduction (20) weighted most heavily. New applicants receive a 15-point bonus; small, impoverished communities receive 5 points.

Applications

The application period opened on March 25, 2026. The deadline to submit applications is July 23, 2026.

Eligible applicants include states, the District of Columbia, U.S. territories and federally recognized Tribal Nations. Eligible subapplicants include local governments, communities, special districts and Tribal Nations applying through a state or territory.

Interested applicants and sub-applicants may review the Notice of Funding Opportunity on Grants.gov. For more information on the BRIC program, applicants should contact their FEMA Regional Office or visit www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/learn/building-resilient-infrastructure-communities.

Moving Money Faster, But…

Reportedly, one of the key objectives is to move money faster. FEMA intends to do this by eliminating phased projects, simplifying the National Competition scoring system and removing sub-application scoring by the National Review Panel.

However, the government shutdown affected all but essential workers at FEMA for months. At this hour, it’s not clear how the shutdown will affect the applications and deadlines. Just yesterday, Congress passed a bill that would restore FEMA funding through September.

According to a spokesperson for Representative Dan Crenshaw, the BRIC deadline would likely be extended if necessary because of staffing issues during the shutdown.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/1/26

3167 Days since Hurricane Harvey