Update 5/27/26 – With 100% of voting locations reporting, Mealer beat Cain by more than a 2:1 margin.
5/26/26 – According to multiple news reports, Alexandra Mealer beat State Representative Briscoe Cain in a landslide tonight in the GOP primary runoff election for the newly redrawn Texas Congressional District 9. CD9 runs from the Ship Channel, Deer Park, Pasadena, and Baytown up the east side of Houston all the way to Liberty County. It even takes in the Lake Houston Dam.
The newly re-drawn CD9
From West Point to Afgan to Harvard to CD9
I first met Mealer in 2022 when she ran for Harris County Judge. However, she narrowly lost to Lina Hidalgo then. We reconnected in late 2025/early 2026 when she announced her candidacy for CD9.
I have nothing but admiration for Mealer. I endorsed her in both races. For those who have not met her in person, she is a force of nature, gifted with a keen intellect and seemingly inexhaustible supplies of energy.
Mealer graduated from West Point, then completed advanced training at the Naval Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) school. As a young lieutenant, the Army selected her ahead of her peers to form a new EOD company for a planned surge in Afghanistan. She prepared her team in half the time usually required by the Army then deployed to a forward operating base in Afghanistan.
While there, Mealer was again selected ahead of her peers to lead the EOD Headquarters Company, consisting of 600+ personnel deployed to 40+ locations throughout Afghanistan. For her 14-month deployment, Mealer was awarded the Combat Action Badge and Bronze Star Medal.
After honorably completing military service, Mealer obtained an MBA from Harvard Business School and a JD degree from Harvard Law School. She then went on to leverage her degrees as an oil & gas investment banker in Houston. She specialized in capital markets and merger/acquisition consulting in the oilfield services sector.
Mealer is also a wife, mother and business owner when she isn’t running for Congress.
Mealer Always Looking Forward
Within one day of her 2022 loss in the county judge race, Mealer began crafting legislation that would have expanded the geographic scope of the Harris County Flood Control District. Here is a white paper that Mealer wrote on the subject.
Even though Kingwood is not technically part of CD9, she is extremely familiar with flooding issues here and throughout the region.
Mealer in 2025 learning about Kingwood Town Center flooding issues along Bens Branch on a rainy day.
According to unofficial election results reported in The Texan, New York Times, and Fox News, Mealer held 69 percent of the voting returns reported early Tuesday evening. So, congratulations, Alex Mealer!
Mealer will face Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in the November election. But the new CD9 reportedly leans heavily to the R side now. So Mealer is expected to have a strong advantage in November.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/26/26
3192 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/20250831-DSC_3263.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2026-05-26 22:08:452026-05-27 09:52:46Alex Mealer Defeats State Rep. Cain in GOP Primary Runoff for New CD-9
5/24/26 – What’s wrong with this picture? It shows the confluence of Spring Creek (l) and the San Jacinto West Fork (r).
Confluence of Spring Creek (l) and West Fork on 5/24/26 after several rounds of heavy rain in previous 3 days.
I took it at approximately 3PM today. It has not been retouched. You are looking at the actual color difference in the water coming down the two streams after several days of rain.
However, the heavy rains were almost equally distributed between the two watersheds according to the Harris County Flood Warning System. So, what accounts for the difference? This is important. After all, that’s the drinking water for more than two million people you’re looking at.
20 Square Miles of Sand Mines in a 20 Mile Reach of the River
A quick look at Google Earth Pro will show a huge difference. There is very little (if any) sand mining upstream on the left, but approximately 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile reach of the river upstream on the right.
And in several mines, the West Fork runs right through active or abandoned sand pits, a phenomenon known as “pit capture.”
So, I drove upstream to learn more. Here’s what I saw.
Water flowing out of a former Hallett pit now owned by Riverwalk Porter LLC. The West Fork enters the pit out of frame to the right.See next shot.Where the West Fork now flows into the Riverwalk pit. Hallett mine in background. River used to flow out of frame in the sandy area on the right, which now totally blocks the river.
Farther upstream, but still at the Hallett mine…
The West Fork flows through another captured pit.Northpark Woods subdivision in background. Pond on the left is an active Hallett pit. Pond in center was formerly owned by Hallett’s parent, the Rasmussen Group, but is no longer actively being mined. Despite that, notice discolored water flowing out of center pit into West Fork.The Hallett Mine exposes several square miles of sediment to erosion.
Another source of sediment from the mine is repairs to its dikes. A local fisherman supplied me with this photo taken today. It shows how repairs to a dike near the processing plant are slumping into the river. I originally posted about the repairs several months ago.
Photo taken on 5/24/26 near Hallett processing equipment.
Here’s what that area looks like from the air.
Note loose, unconsolidated sediment dumped into river near center of frame
Externalizing Operational Costs to Taxpayers
The sand-mining industry in Montgomery County helps power growth there. The bulk of the mines are located close to the Harris County line. So Montgomery County gets the benefit. And Harris County gets the cleanup costs in the form of dredging, water treatment, and medical bills.
TCEQ monitors this mine for Nitrate + Nitrite N, total suspended solids, pH, and hazardous metals including Arsenic, Barium, Cadmium, Chromium, Copper, Lead, Manganese, Mercury, Nickel, Selenium, Silver, and Zinc.
Ask your favorite AI program what the health risks of exposure to those chemicals are.
This is what economists call an “externality.” The full cost of providing the sand is not reflected in the bills that purchasers receive. Miners pass their clean up costs on to taxpayers downstream in order to provide an artificially low cost to the actual consumers.
And in my opinion, that’s what’s wrong with the picture.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/2026
3190 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/DJI_20260524145751_0210_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2026-05-24 19:21:342026-05-25 09:33:44What’s Wrong with This Picture?
5/23/26 – Earlier this week, contractors for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 finished paving the surface lanes across the UnionPacific Railroad (UPRR) tracks. Two surface lanes both east- and westbound will border the bridge being built over the tracks and Loop 494. They will provide turning capabilities at the intersection as well as access to local businesses.
Note fresh pavement in lower right.
All that remains to be paved is a narrow strip just a few feet wide adjacent to the tracks (see above). The strips will be paved after crossing gates and traffic signals are installed and coordinated with other railroad crossings up and down the tracks.
That means the only unpaved section of roadway in Phase I (not counting the bridge) is a tiny section in front of the dry cleaners on the west side of Loop 494 (see below). Light poles were finally cleared out of there this week and paving was scheduled for today. However, heavy rains disrupted that.
Last unpaved area is in lower right corner of intersection.
Elsewhere along Phase I:
Work continues on excavating and lining the entry ponds that bracket Northpark at US59
Contractors are busy installing light poles
New traffic control signal control box at Russell Palmer has been installed and should be operational soon
Work on Loop 494 appears complete
The last major item, construction of the bridge, will pick back up when the new surface lanes become operational and traffic can be moved out of the center lanes.
See pictures below.
Photos Taken May 16-23
Work on north entry pond on 5/16/26Excavation of south entry pond continues, but was delayed by heavy rains this week.New temporary traffic signal being installed in rain on morning of 5/20/26 at Northpark/Loop 494.Old traffic signal pole being removed on same day from last area to be paved.
Four traffic officers kept traffic moving smoothly during the change of signals.
The concrete junction boxes staged lower center/right of the image above will connect drainage across Northpark under the old roadway once traffic switches from the center to the new feeder roads.
Ditch One will be hydro-mulched when contractor returns to hydro-much road shoulders and plant sod in medians of NorthparkPaving has been completed up to the eastern bridge abutment and pavement underlayment on abutment itself has started.Work on Loop 494 is finished except for traffic lights and crossing gates.Contractors are still using the closed off section to stage equipment.
Street Light Installation
Street light foundations usually consist of an 8’ deep concrete column. Contractors use an auger to bore the hole. Then they install rebar and pour concrete. The process goes quickly.
However, due to right-of-way constraints, Northpark has six locations where storm water laterals run approximately four feet below grade behind the curb. So, typical street light foundations won’t have enough clearance. Instead, they use “spread-foot foundations” at those locations.
Spread-foot foundations run parallel to grade, horizontally instead of vertically. If you look at the image below, you will see most of the foundation will be underneath the adjacent sidewalk.
In parts of the City that experience frequent inundation, such foundations are common because they can resist the forces of floodwater pushing against them.
Majority of the street light foundations on Allen Parkway and Memorial Drive between Bagby and Shepherd Drive are spread foot.
A Look Ahead at Bridge Construction
I asked Project Manage Ralph De Leon when he expected bridge construction to pick back up. He replied, “As soon as the feeder roads are open +/- June 23rd. Ford, Knox, Royal Crossing and Northpark are interconnected. All four intersections have been updated, and the testing is currently underway. All four have to be operational before UPRR will let us open the Northpark feeder roads.”
5/22/2026 – The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) is kicking off another round of funding for Flood Infrastructure Projects. $312 million is available for the 2026-2027 cycle.
Who Can Apply for What
Texas Cities, Counties and Districts/Authorities are eligible to apply for grants or 0%-interest loans. Four types of projects qualify:
Flood Management Evaluations (Planning studies)
Flood Mitigation Projects (Construction or rehabilitation of drainage infrastructure)
Flood Management Strategies (Projects that don’t fit within the first two categories, such as warning systems, stream gages, crossing barriers, public education, buyouts, etc.)
Federal Matching Grants (Funds for a portion of required federal matches associated with projects in one of the three categories above).
The New Plan for How Money Will Be Distributed
TWDB has published an “Intended Use Plan” describing how the money will be allocated. It includes a detailed scoring matrix for prioritizing projects. The Board will accept public comments on the plan and the matrix until Friday, June 12, 2026 at 11:59PM CDT.
Application for funding happens in two stages to make things easier. Applicants submit an abridged application for prioritizing proposed projects. The highest ranking projects will then be invited to submit full applications.
This year’s Intended Use Plan makes nine key changes compared to previous years.
Removal of the Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) from the Minimum Requirements section.
FME projects are not subject to the notice requirement.
Water conveyance projects have additional coordination and planning requirements.
To ensure financial assistance is distributed more broadly, no single entity will be able to receive financial assistance for more than two abridged application requests within a single project category. The only exceptions: (1) federal match projects, and (2) funds remain.
Projects will be prioritized into the four categories listed above
Removal of predetermined funding goals per category.
TWDB will invite at least one project from each regional flood planning group within each category, as funding permits.
Funding caps will apply to grants, loans, and in-kind funding terms within each category.
Grant qualifiers and grant percentage offerings were changed.
Finally this TWDB page contains information regarding everything having to do with the Texas Flood Infrastructure Fund. It includes examples of previously submitted/approved projects, a project dashboard, instructions on how to apply for grants and much more.
To date, TWDB has committed more than $832 million to Texas flood infrastructure projects.
Local Project Now in Construction
A key to the success of projects within the San Jacinto River Basin is working with the San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group. Timothy E. Buscha is currently the chair. Buscha said recently, “What we’re hoping for is a more streamlined way to get money to the projects that need it most.” And the first step? “We’re trying to get people to get a project into the system so that they’re eligible.”
Eventually that money works its way back down to communities where it can do some good. For instance, the Taylor Gully project, which just started construction in Kingwood, is a beneficiary of more than $10 million of Flood Infrastructure Funding, according to the TWDB dashboard.
Like most large infrastructure projects, funding came from a number of sources. In this case, it came from TWDB, the 2018 Bond Program, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Texas General Land Office, and the EPA. Congressman Dan Crenshaw was instrumental in securing the funding from HUD and EPA.
So, don’t sit back and wait for projects to come to you. Advocate for them. Get with your local officials while the getting is good.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/22/2026
3188 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Taylor-Gully.png?fit=2434%2C1192&ssl=111922434adminadmin2026-05-22 15:03:022026-05-22 15:52:28TWDB Awarding $312 Million for Flood Infrastructure Projects
5/21/2026 – Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service predict a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin for 2026. The Atlantic season runs June 1 to November 30. NOAA predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency predicts a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, it forecasts 3-6 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). That includes 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).
An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. If the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season ends up below-normal, it would mark only the second season in the last decade without above-normal activity. Since the current Atlantic high-activity era began in 1995, 22 of 31 (about 70%) seasons have had above-normal activity. Only 5 (17%) and 4 (14%) have had near- and below-normal activity, respectively. That’s based on the 1951-2020 climatology.
Also, 10 (almost half) of the above-normal years (thus 32% of the 31 years) have been hyperactive (ACE of 165% of median).
Key Factors Driving NOAA’s Forecast
NOAA based its below-normal predictions on competing factors.
El Niño should develop and intensify during the hurricane season. This creates wind shear in the Atlantic which discourages hurricane formation.
Atlantic ocean temperatures should range slightly warmer than normal
Trade winds will likely be weaker than average.
El Niño conditions tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now.”
“It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham
Below are the storm names for 2026.
Not a Landfall Forecast
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land. That is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns. This is not a landfall forecast.
Importance of Preparation
“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information,” added Graham.
New, Enhanced Communication Products This Season
“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) will implement an improved version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
NHC will begin testing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone track forecast cone that will capture a greater range of possibilities for the track of the storm by incorporating uncertainties for both direction of movement and timing.
Advancements to Hurricane Analysis and Forecasts
Advances are not just in communication:
NOAA, in collaboration with the Unified Forecast System community, is testing an experimental high-resolution Seasonal Forecast System that utilizes the latest modeling technology and new methods to assess the evolution of the global ocean-atmosphere system. The system is helping forecasters better simulate tropical storms and hurricanes, and more effectively predict the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes.
NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is using machine learning to quality-control data collected from tail Doppler radar — a specialized radar system mounted on the back of NOAA’s “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft. This new method gathers more than 25% more meteorological data than the current method and leads to more high-quality data to support structure and wind analysis by forecasters.
New, Innovative Forecasting Technologies
NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction high-resolution Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) services provide emergency managers visualizations of those streets and neighborhoods likely to go underwater. FIM covers 60% of the U.S. population and will expand to nearly 100% by late September 2026.
The 2026 Atlantic seasonal outlook will be updated in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the season, which typically extends from mid-September through October.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2026 based on information from NOAA and NWS
3187 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-Atlantic-Hurricane-Outlook-PIE-CHART-ENGLISH.png?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=110801920adminadmin2026-05-21 13:50:152026-05-21 13:52:05NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
5/20/2026 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, heavy rainfall will continue this week. “Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals…much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday,” he said. “That’s on top of 1-3 inches that fell overnight. “Concern remains high for short-term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid-onset flash flooding.” As a result…
“Flash flood and river flood threats will be increasing with time.”
Jeff Lindner
National Weather Service expects total rainfall accumulations to reach 6-8 inches in the next week.
For more details, see below.
Active Weather Pattern Will Continue into Weekend
Earlier forecasts suggested a total of 3-5 inches in coming days. But that has increased. Most of Harris County received 2-3 inches in the last 24 hours alone. See below.
Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely, according to Lindner.
Latest rounds of storms moved off the coast this morning. Expect a mostly uneventful day with respect to any additional storms. However, this evening another strong disturbance will come out of west Texas and northern Mexico. It will likely produce another complex of thunderstorms. High resolution models suggest a line of storms will form over that part of Texas and move eastward tonight into Thursday morning.
Some models predict the complex of storms will hold together into southeast Texas early Thursday. But other suggest they will weaken before reaching here.
Generally, this activity looks progressive. It will likely bring another 1-2 inches of rainfall. Once it moves through, another break will be possible for much of Thursday. But that will depend on the morning complex of storms pushing through the region and stabilizing the air mass. If not, thunderstorms could develop with heating on Thursday. The NWS Weather Prediction Center shows a level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall and flash flood threat for Thursday for the entire region.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. But confidence in the forecast is low beyond 36 hours. So monitor forecasts late Thursday into Friday morning for approaching disturbances.
Heavy Rainfall Threat Increasing For Weekend
Models indicate more concentrated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may occur this weekend as a trough over the southwest shift slowly towards west Texas. It is unclear exactly how things will play out into the weekend, but it generally looks wet and the heavy rainfall threat will remain. Colorado State University predicts a heavy rainfall threat for both Saturday and Sunday.
Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals. Much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday. Concern remains for high short term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid onset flash flooding.
We will need to watch the entire period for any stalling storms or cell training that could quickly result in flash flooding.
Runoff/Flooding
With all the rounds of rainfall, grounds will saturate thoroughly. Run-off will increase into the weekend. A lot of water is going to fall over the next 5-7 days across the region. How quickly that happens will ultimately determine the threat for flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers.
“Rivers and creeks will rise with rounds of storms and may not be able to recede much before the next round – especially this weekend,” says Lindner. The end result: a slow steady rise in water levels.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will also cause more rapid rises on the more urban creeks and bayous. While these channels can effectively move large amounts of run-off in a short period of time, they can become overwhelmed with intense short-term rainfall rates.
Closely monitor all watersheds into the weekend for rises and any more defined flooding concerns. A good source for that in real-time is the Harris County Flood Warning System. Just remember to click on the Inundation button in the left column. You can also sign up for alerts.
Severe Weather Threat Low
Overall, the severe weather threat is low, but not zero. Overnight storms produced wind gusts of 45-55mph (56mph near Surfside Beach) and these complexes of storms tend to produce gusty winds along their leading edge. The severe threat is likely secondary to the increasing flood threat but will need to be monitored.
Lake Lowering
The Coastal Water Authority started lowering Lake Houston yesterday morning to create more storage for floodwater in the lake and reduce flood threats. As of 11:30 today, the lake was down from its normal level by almost a foot.
The SJRA dashboard shows they are not releasing any water from Lake Conroe but that lake is already down about a half foot. Normal is 201 feet.
Keep your eye on the sky and your ear to the weather radio. And with hurricane season officially starting in 11 days, now may be a good time to check the batteries in all your emergency equipment.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 1PM on Wed., May 20, 2026
3186 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Forecast-Precip.png?fit=870%2C662&ssl=1662870adminadmin2026-05-20 12:55:422026-05-20 13:24:28Flood Threats Increasing with Rainfall Predictions
5/19/26 – Contractors working on the Woodridge Village-Taylor Gully Project finally appeared yesterday and started working today. Construction on the site had been paused since November, 2023.
That’s when Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) cancelled an Excavation and Removal Contract with Sprint Sand & Clay to apply for a Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) from the Texas General Land Office and US Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This particular CDBG project falls in the Mitigation Category. That means, HCFCD and the contractors have until March 31, 2028 to finish it – about a year and ten months.
History of Project
All this comes seven years after Perry Homes cleared approximately 270 acres on its Woodridge Village property, and sloped the land toward Taylor Gully … without building the required detention basins. Then the flooding problems started. Taylor Gully flooded up to 600 homes twice in 2019, once on May 7 and once in September during Tropical Storm Imelda.
Harris County and City of Houston bought the property from Perry Homes in 2020. That let Sprint Sand & Clay start excavating a giant detention basin on Woodridge. They removed 156,478 cubic yards of sediment. That brought the total detention on the site up to Atlas-14 requirements, But per HUD requirements, HCFCD had to stop Sprint while it applied for a grant, which Congressman Dan Crenshaw helped secure.
However, work stopped before the basin was finished and it was never connected to the rest of the drainage on the site. See below.
Woodridge Village in November 2023 when E&R contract ended. Note storm sewer pipe scattered around excavation.
Sprint removed all that dirt for less than a thousand dollars. The picture above shows how the site looked the day Sprint left. They gave the current contractors a giant head start.
Site Clean Up Started Today
Today, after a hiatus of almost three years, a new contractor started by cleaning up the site. I photographed them breaking up the old storm sewer pipe unearthed by Sprint.
Woodridge Village on 5/19/2026. Note contractors breaking up storm sewers that Perry had installed near detention basin excavation.
I counted three pieces of construction equipment onsite today: a small bulldozer, an excavator that was breaking up the pipe. And a forklift that ferried pipe to the excavator.
Restart of construction on 5/19/2026
I didn’t see any other equipment on Woodridge or along Taylor Gully.
Looking upstream along Taylor Gully from West Lake Houston Parkway toward Rustic Elms and Woodridge.Looking downstream toward the end of Taylor Gully.
What Project Includes
On 10/6/25, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) approved approximately $42 million to construct Taylor Gully Channel Conveyance Improvements and a Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin.
On 3/26/26, the county purchasing agent approved a $29,387,654 bid from Brice Construction & Design, LLC to finish constructing the Woodridge and Taylor Gully flood mitigation projects in Kingwood
The Woodridge portion of the project (above the county line) includes 421.6 acre feet of additional stormwater detention capacity (See Compartment 1 above).
Other planned improvements along Taylor Gully include:
13,118 feet of channel conveyance improvements
Placing a concrete channel along the base of it
Replacing the concrete culverts at Rustling Elms with an open-span bridge.
Altogether the plan should reduce the water surface elevation by up to 5 feet and help 24,000 thousand people who live near or commute through the area.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/DJI_20260519142939_0131_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2026-05-19 17:37:092026-06-13 12:29:05Woodridge-Taylor Gully Construction Starts Again
5/17/26 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, a wet and stormy period mid to late week could bring heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and riverine flooding. The wet and stormy pattern will likely last through the Memorial Day weekend.
Weather Pattern
A slow-moving, upper-level trough will blanket the southwest through much of this week into next weekend while both surface Gulf moisture and high-level Pacific moisture stream into the area.
Additionally, a slow-moving frontal boundary will sag into the area mid to late week. Lindner says, “This is a classic mid to late May stormy pattern for Texas.”
The overall pattern looks stormy as early as late Tuesday. Incoming upper-level disturbances will be hard to time. So, while rain chances will remain high into next weekend, there will be periods of stormy weather followed by breaks.
Complexes of thunderstorms from the west and northwest will move into the area from time to time with the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather until late week. When the slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary is nearby or overhead, it will help promote more sustained thunderstorm formation and potential cell training.
Rainfall Predictions
Nearly all of the major global weather models show heavy to excessive rainfall potential. However, it will be difficult to predict precisely where storms will train and how long breaks will be between rounds.
These are all details that will be worked out in the next several days as forecast confidence increases.
Expect widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches from Wednesday through Sunday with isolated totals much higher in areas of cell training of slow moving storms. These totals may increase some over the next few days.
Initially, rainfall will soak into the ground. But repeated rounds of rain and training storms could quickly result in higher runoff rates and flash flooding.
Additionally, the large footprint of the forecasted rainfall will yield rises on area rivers systems. And it is possible that some rivers could approach or exceed flood stage by next weekend.
At this time, Pivotal Weather predicts 4.3 inches for Harris County, 5.1 for Montgomery County, and 6.1 for Walker County. The headwaters for Lake Conroe lie in Walker County and heavy rains there in the past have led to the SJRA opening its flood gates.
For instance, in May 2024, rainfall north of Harris County exceeded 10.0-15.0 inches in many locations. And it exceeded 15.0-20.0 inches on the headwaters of the East Fork and north of Lake Conroe on the West Fork.
Severe Threat
A low daily threat of severe weather (wind and hail) from late Tuesday onward exists. But this threat is conditional on several factors that are hard to determine at this time. Keep your eye on the sky and weather forecasts in coming days. The wet pattern may even linger into next week.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/day3prob_1930.png?fit=1630%2C1110&ssl=111101630adminadmin2026-05-17 17:00:562026-05-17 17:05:25Heavy Rains Could Bring Flash and Riverine Flooding This Week
5/15/2026 – At their 5/14/2026 meeting, Harris County Commissioners discussed the job performance of the Flood Control District Executive Director, Tina Petersen, Ph.D. After coming out of executive session, Commissioners announced that they were taking “no action” re: Dr. Petersen.
Petersen has come under increasing pressure to produce results on $322 million worth of projects funded by HUD Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR). They have a looming February 28, 2027 deadline. And Petersen’s own data shows many of the projects will miss that deadline, thus jeopardizing federal funding.
Dr. Petersen under pressure as she addressed commissioners
Hidalgo Putting Petersen’s Performance Back on Agenda
Despite taking “no action” on Petersen this week, in a lunch-time press conference yesterday, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, said she was putting Petersen’s performance back on the agenda for the June Commissioner’s Court meeting.
Addressing schedule slippage on CDBG-DR projects with tight deadlines, Hidalgo said, “The best I can do is place my trust in somebody else that might bring a different kind of energy, a sense of urgency and a new relationship with our partners at other levels of government.”
Hidalgo referred to Petersen’s “unforced errors” and added, “Every day that passes is a day in which perhaps we’re not working as quickly as we could be working.”
When asked about the probability of meeting the General Land Office deadline of February 28, 2027, Hidalgo replied,
“Given where we are and given the reports we have so far, I don’t see how they [the DR projects] will be done on time.”
Lina Hidalgo
Referring to other leaders at the federal and state levels who will have to make a decision about granting an extension, Hidalgo said, “If they’re anything like me, they will want to see a change [in leadership] as well. So that’s where I’m coming from.”
“I don’t think she’s the right person to continue to see this through. I don’t think that gives us the best shot at inspiring the confidence that the other levels of government will need to bet on Harris County,” Hidalgo added.
Ramsey Remains “Extremely Concerned”
Later, back in the meeting, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey announced that he “remains concerned” about whether Petersen is achieving results and being transparent.
“There have been some delays internally in terms of when we get projects out, when we get projects bid. That’s very clear and we can go through a lot of detail related to that,” said Ramsey. “I think the GLO’s concerned that we’re not doing our job. So that concerns me. I get concerned when they tell me that they’re having trouble getting data.”
Ramsey expressed concerns about how transparent HCFCD was being regarding the status of projects. In referring to a detailed report that commissioners demanded from Petersen in the previous meeting, he said to her, “I shouldn’t have had to come to Commissioner’s Court to get support from this court to ask you to provide information to the GLO.” Then he added, “Every bit of data that we requested … was specifically needed by the GLO and they were not getting it.”
Speaking to Petersen, he said, “I’m not going to take for granted what you’re telling me. It’ll be verified by Administrator Carter [the country administrator] in great detail in the coming days.”
Ramsey concluded, “Clearly, this is urgent. I’m glad you were able to do a report that we asked for, but I remain extremely concerned.”
Petersen’s Presentation Focused Largely on Need for Deadline Extension
At the end of the meeting, Petersen appeared before commissioners, ostensibly to update them on the status of the CDBG projects. She did produce a series of one-page information sheets that show a timeline for each CDBG-DR project.
However, she did not go into details on those. Nor did she explain any “unforced errors” as Hidalgo called them.
Instead, she focused largely on how frequently she had requested deadline extensions. In her half hour at the podium, Petersen mentioned a need for deadline extensions or more time approximately 30 times.
I felt she was claiming that there was never enough time to do these jobs. What do you feel? Here are:
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Tina-Petersen-at-26.05.14-CC-Meeting.jpg?fit=1100%2C621&ssl=16211100adminadmin2026-05-15 23:49:122026-05-16 10:21:53HCFCD Director Tina Petersen Keeps Her Job … For Now
5/14/26 – Homes in floodplains typically sell at discounts compared to safer homes on higher ground. Therefore, they tend to attract a higher proportion of first-time home buyers. Why? For the vast majority of first-time buyers, affordability drives buying decisions more than other considerations, especially since flood risk is hard to understand.
Let’s look at some recent studies and start with the most affordable markets for first-time buyers.
Zillow Rankings of Market Affordability
In February 2026, a Zillow study identified large U.S. metro areas where buying a home is an affordable alternative to renting.
The study ranked the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas based on their proportions of:
Income spent on rent (the rent burden: less spent means greater ability to save for down payment)
Affordable listings for median-income households (more supply drives down prices)
Affordable listings per 100 rental households (more choices mean greater bargaining power)
Share of population between 29 and 43 (prime ages for first-time buyers).
In Houston, first-time homebuyers spend only 23% of their income on rent. And 40% of the City’s housing stock is within the price range of median-income households. So, Houston is one of the most affordable markets for first-time homebuyers.
Flooding Connection?
But are first-time homebuyers really more likely to buy homes in floodplains?” Research is illuminating. Short answer – “Yes. But not always.” It depends on where you look.
Inland vs. Coastal Floodplains
Less wealthy first-time buyers are often disproportionately represented in inland flood-prone areas. Why? Land is cheaper there and affordability drives decision making.
However, the pattern differs in coastal flood zones. Flooded coastal homes still command premiums because of their views, proximity to beaches, water access and recreational value.
“Approved mortgage applicants in inland flood zones have lower credit scores and income than approved mortgage applicants for properties in minimal flood risk areas,” says the report.
Freddie Mac studied Houston and Harris County home prices before and after Harvey. Freddie Mac found that floodplain properties sell at a discount and that, after flooding, that discount doubled.
Lower prices naturally attract more cost-sensitive buyers, including many first-time buyers.
Other studies suggest younger buyers and buyers with less flood experience DO NOT give as much weight to flood risk as older, more experienced buyers. One 2025 housing-market study found younger buyers in flood-prone regions often did not demand meaningful price discounts for risk exposure, while older buyers did.
Compared to safer homes on higher ground, inland floodplains typically feature:
Cheaper land
Newer suburban growth
Fringe development areas
Weaker zoning or drainage standards
Higher proportions of entry-level housing.
This pattern is especially visible around rapidly growing metro areas such as Houston. Here, developable non-floodplain land near employment centers is increasingly scarce and expensive.
A recent Houston Chronicle investigation found 65,000 homes built in mapped floodplains across the Houston region since Harvey, partly because flood-prone land has higher profit margins.
Why First-time Buyers are Particularly Vulnerable
Several factors converge in the “first-time” market:
Mortgage qualification focuses on payment affordability more than flood-risk; lenders simply require flood insurance.
There is also evidence that many buyers misunderstand flood insurance. Surveys show a substantial share of Americans incorrectly believe homeowners insurance covers flood damage.
In Houston Region
These dynamics can become especially pronounced because:
Floodplain land is often among the last large tracts available near growth corridors
Drainage rules vary by jurisdiction; some keep standards low to attract growth
First-time buyers may not have experienced prior floods
Many buyers speak English as a second language, as in Colony Ridge
That creates a situation where entry-level subdivisions may be marketed as “compliant” with current regulations while still carrying substantial, unrecognized flood risk.
A Personal Testament
I once fell into that exact trap when I was much younger. I bought a house on Spring Creek in the Dallas area. The developer promised me, “You’re two feet above the 100-year floodplain.” That sounded safe. Plus, the view was gorgeous and the bank was willing to loan us the money. We bought it.
But within three years, we flooded. I worked with the City Engineer and Army Corps to re-evaluate flooding on the creek. They found that because of upstream development in those three years, we went from two feetabove the 100-year floodplain to 10 feetbelow it.
We sold the house at a $60,000 loss and moved on. In today’s dollars, that would equal $200,000.
Somewhere along the way, I learned that “Built to code” does not necessarily mean “low flood risk.” In many jurisdictions, it simply means the structure meets the minimum regulatory elevation or mitigation standard tied to existing maps and assumptions which could be decades old.
Most first time buyers don’t realize that flood risk can change faster than flood maps. Much faster. They also don’t realize that the chances of getting flooded in a 100-year floodplain during the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage is 26% – a more than one in four chance.
Buyers beware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/26
3180 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Freddie-Mac-Finding.png?fit=1382%2C1030&ssl=110301382adminadmin2026-05-14 15:45:232026-05-14 15:50:06Floodplains and Affordability for First-Time Homebuyers
