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How Unusual Were Recent Storms? New NOAA Data Sheds Light

New Atlas-14 data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sheds some light on the intensity of storms in the last week. How unusual were they?

May 3rd was a 200-year storm. May 7 was a 100-year storm. And we can expect a week that wet about once every 5-10 years. Here’s how to find the probability for any storm, location or interval.

Step One: Find Gage Nearest You

Large variations in rainfall totals exist even within small geographic areas. So finding the gage nearest you is the first step. For instance, in this week’s storms, official gages in New Caney and Humble registered differences of more than 25% for the same event. Harris County Flood Control has a Flood Warning System that shows all gages in Harris County and many in surrounding counties. You can also use your own data if you have a rain gage.

Step Two: Determine Time and Volume

When you’re obtaining the official gage data, try to narrow down the duration as close as possible. That’s because you’re estimating rainfall INTENSITY – a function of both time and volume. A two-inch rain spread out over a day is NOT the same as a two-inch rain in ten minutes.

Step Three: Find Average Recurrence Interval

Once you know how much rain fell in your area in a given amount of time, the next step is to determine the “average recurrence interval (ARI).” That tells you how often you’re likely to experience a storm of that intensity. Here’s where and how to find it.

To determine the ARI for any location, go to this page on the NOAA site.

Example

Once you’re at the NOAA site, click your location on the map. Here, I clicked on the approximate location of Elm Grove in Kingwood.

A chart showing the average recurrence intervals for Kingwood will appear below the map.

From NOAA Atlas-14. NOAA offers both tabular and graphical formats, but the tables seem easier to interpret. Atlas 14 includes the latest data, including Hurricane Harvey.

On Friday, May 3, Kingwood received 5-6 inches in less than an hour. Scrolling down to the 60-minute line and over to the column that shows 5.49 inches, we can see that that was an estimated 200-year rainfall.

On Tuesday, May 7, the Porter/New Caney area received about 8-10 inches of rain in less than six hours. That was an estimated 100-year rain.

For the seven days starting May 3, gages in the Lake Houston area averaged 10-12 inches. We can expect a week that wet about every 5-10 years.

Probabilities Can Be Mind-Benders

But wait! How can that be? How can you get a 200-year rain and 100-year rain four days apart? And how can we get weeks this wet in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019 if it’s supposedly a 5-year event? Simple. You’re dealing in probabilities of independent events. If you toss a coin ten times and it comes up heads each time, the chances of it coming up heads on the 11th toss are still 50%.

It’s the same way with weather. Just because you won the lottery last week doesn’t mean you can’t win it again this week. With that happy thought, I’ll wish you pleasant skies today.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/11/2019 with help from Diane Cooper

620 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Crenshaw Coordinating Gift Card Drive for Flood Victims, May 11, 10-Noon, at Second Baptist Church

U.S. Congressman Dan Crenshaw is in a new fight now – to help provide flood relief.

Elm Grove had hundreds of flash flood victims this week; other villages had smaller numbers.

Gift Cards Needed

“Few of the victims had flood insurance,” said Crenshaw. “Let’s come together as a community to help our neighbors, just as we did after Hurricane Harvey. Please drop off gift cards that can help people recover. In the parking lot of Building B at Second Baptist on US59 this Saturday from 10 to 12.”

Always appreciated at times like these: gift cards for restaurants, hardware stores, and clothes. No amount is too large or small. Think about what you needed after Harvey. Thank you for helping.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/10/19

619 Days after Hurricane Harvey

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Urged Corps to Deny Romerica Permit

The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Serivice (USFWS) has urged the Army Corps of Engineers to deny outright Romerica’s application to build high rises and a marina in the floodplain and floodway of the San Jacinto.

Bald eaglets photographed by Emily Murphy within a protection zone relative to most of the Romerica development. The USFWS criticized the Romerica application for an inadequate bald eagle survey.

From the date on the USFWS letter, February 28, it appears that USFWS arrived at its recommendation even before the close of the public comment period on March 1.

Read the full text of the five-page letter here or the summary below.

Summary of USFWS Concerns

The letter states that:

The applicant understated the likely impact on waters and wetlands resulting from fill material, raised buildings, infrastructure development and construction activities. They called the applicant’s proposal “misleading.”
USFWS expressed concerns about:
Bird strikes and mortalities associated with the high-rise buildings
The loss of highly functioning forested wetlands
Significant reduction in biological functions, particularly those related to fish and wildlife habitat
Water quality issues
A marina district built entirely within the floodway
The absence of appropriate stormwater management
Failure to fully disclose impacts on wetlands and surrounding properties
Inconsistencies in access road descriptions
Failure to fully disclose the project’s footprint impacts
Failure to provide an analysis of practicable alternatives to the proposed wetland and stream fill
Failure to demonstrate that the project meets the requirements of the EPA’s CWA 404(b)(1) guidelines
An incomplete compensatory mitigation plan
Improper assessment of the high level of functions of the onsite aquatic resources and surrounding upland habitats
An inadequate bald eagle survey
Disturbance and loss of bald eagle habitat.

Conclusion and Recommendation of USFWS

The USFWS recommended “permit denial due to the application’s deficiencies.”

Reaction

I’m happy that a government agency validated the concerns of residents, especially the numerous deficiencies that became so glaringly obvious during the public comment period. Example: when I asked one of the engineers at the March 18th public meeting where all the fill would be put, he couldn’t tell me. It seemed like a simple, but important question. Turns out it was.

Jill Boullion, Executive Director of the Bayou Land Conservancy said, “The Bayou Land Conservancy is gratified that US Fish & Wildlife service has confirmed our opinion that the Romerica project site is ecologically rich and diverse. It is, in its natural state, already providing the community immeasurable services. We believe the highest good for the community is to preserve this valuable resource, not develop it.”

Romerica’s spokesperson, Leah Howard Manlove, contacted me earlier this week to say that the Romerica team would meet next week to discuss their options and a plan of action. At this point, Romerica has two options: answer all the questions and concerns raised during the public comment period or quietly let the project die.

Posted by Bob Rehak on May 10, 2019

619 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent my opinions on matters of public policy and are protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP statute of the Great State of Texas.

Elm Grove Looks for Answers and Doesn’t Have to Look Far

The hardest hit area from Tuesday’s storm seemed to be one that never flooded before: Elm Grove Village. Media have reported as many as 400 homes flooded there. As I drove down Elm Grove streets near the Harris/Montgomery County line, home after home had waterlogged trash, carpet, mattresses and furniture piled in front. Suddenly, I had eerie flashbacks to Harvey. Clusters of people in the street trading horror stories. Service trucks everywhere. Residents gaping at damage, consoling each other. People crying as they threw out prized belongings. Shock, sympathy, anger, fear all rolled into thousand-yard stares. Wondering what would come next with 8-12 more inches of rain on the way. But most of all, they were asking “Why?”

Why?

Here’s what I’ve been able to learn.

According to the residents I talked to, this area never flooded before…even during Harvey.
The storm drains were clear. City Councilman Dave Martin who was onsite this morning coordinating the City’s response showed me fiber optic video of clear storm sewers. Public Works could find no blockages near the flooded homes in Elm Grove.
Drone footage (below) shows there were no blockages in the ditch that services the area.
The rainfall intensity and duration on Tuesday both played a roll.
According to Martin, storm drains in this area are designed to handle 1/2 inch of rain per hour. However, Elm Grove received close to 10 inches during a 5 hour period on Tuesday.
A complicating factor was a new subdivision being built in Montgomery County (by a subsidiary of Perry Homes, Figure Four Partners LTD) that butts up to Elm Grove.
The developer clear-cut 92 acres and slanted drainage toward Elm Grove.
No detention ponds, silt fences, berms, sand bags, or filter socks had been installed to retain water that I could see. Also, with the exception of one or two small groves of trees, no vegetation remained to slow or absorb runoff.
The developer covered up an existing stream/ditch according to residents.
Near the end of a long, severely eroded drainage ditch, the developer installed a box culvert that couldn’t handle the volume from this storm. It backed water up and flooded the site according to residents.
The overflow then went into Elm Grove.
According to residents, construction employees routinely access the site from Elm Grove streets. Their trucks created ruts that channeled water into the streets.
Because the storm drain capacity could not keep up with the rainfall rate and the water flowing from the development, water rose in the streets and flooded homes. Most people I talked to had 12-18 inches of water in their homes.

The Difference? The New Development

Storms as intense as Tuesday’s have happened before without flooding in Elm Grove. Heck, not even Harvey flooded the area. No blockage existed in the sewer or the existing drainage ditches in Elm Grove. Clearly, the one thing that’s different in this equation is the new development.

Arrow represents direction of drainage in the clearcut area. Developer funneled water toward the L-shaped ditch. However, the water started flowing through streets and homes instead. Worst damage was in oval which is approximate in size and shape. Not all homes in oval flooded.

*No blockages downstream in ditch. So ditch blockage was ruled out as contributing factor.*

Drone Stills from Jim Zura

*Drainage on site seems to funnel water toward Elm Grove and then down toward the culvert shown below.* *However, it appears that rain overwhelmed the drainage capacity and the lack of vegetation accelerated runoff.*

If dirt piled along tree line was supposed to represent a berm, it certainly wasn’t continuous. Water flowed through openings according to residents, for instance, where men are standing in lower left.

*Looking West toward K-Park HS. Elm Grove is out of frame on the left. Note how pools of water are larger on the left than right indicating that runoff is flowing towards Elm Grove.*

View from the Ground

*Shot taken on 5/7/19 from Woodland Hills Drive in front of Kingwood Park High School, looking southeast toward Sherwood Trails.*

*Sewers had not yet been installed as of 5/7/19.*

*On 5/7/19, the entire site was a mass of muck.*

*A drainage ditch or linear pond in-the-making shows signs of severe erosion. This ditch carried water toward the homes in Elm Grove that flooded.*

*Wider shot of same area. Not a blade of grass in sight. Rivers of mud everywhere.*

Life Disrupted

*Contractors were swarming the neighborhood one day after the flood.*

*Home after home. Street after street. Shattered lives. Few people in this neighborhood had flood insurance because it had never flooded.*

The transition between Village Springs Drive in Elm Grove and the new development in Montgomery County. You can tell from the mud in the streets where the water came from. Residents report water rising in the street before it rose in the drainage ditch that bisects the neighborhood.

Family Closest to the Problem

*Abel Vera, homeowner on Village Springs Drive, adjacent to the new development.* *The following pictures are from his home and used with his permission.* *His beautiful pool is filled with muddy flood water.* *The heavy stone pots and patio furniture were lifted by the flood and slammed into the fence.*

*Vera’s back fence shows how high the water reached in his yard.*

*The “upstream” side of Vera’s car, parked in his driveway during the flood. The wheel was facing the new development.*

*Vera points to the waterline on his kitchen cabinets. He spent five hours vacuuming water from the recessed hardwood floor in his kitchen.*

*Newly installed hardwood floors will need to be replaced.*

*Culvert at the end of the ditch reportedly backed water up. Water then moved toward upper right, the Vera home.*

Within the next day or two, I hope to edit the drone footage with the talented Jim Zura who shot it. As I post this, I hear thunder outside from yet another round of storms. And I’m praying for the people of Elm Grove.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/9/19

618 Days since Hurricane Harvey

There’s a Developer Born Every Minute!

This morning, local videographer Jim Zura took his drone down to River Grove Park and photographed the Romerica property flooding for the seventh time in 14 months. It proves that there’s a developer born every minute!

To see Jim Zura’s drone video, click here.

The history of this land involves half a dozen different developers, each with big dreams, determined to get rich in that promised land between buying low and selling high. Ultimately, though, they end up selling to another starry-eyed developer after reality sets in.

For the most recent owner, Romerica Investments, that reality includes waking up to find that your property was under 22 feet of water during Harvey and floods repeatedly.

Also, in the “Gee-what-were-they-thinking-department,” you would have to include the fact that FEMA will soon reclassify the property in the floodway – before Romerica can obtain a permit from the Army Corps.

At what point to you admit to yourself that there is no way out?

Investing $5 billion in a floodway that carries 240,000 cubic feet per second! That’s Brooklyn-Bridge smart. Expecting 15,000 condo buyers to wade into the wacky dream with you? It would be easier to sell high rises at the end of an airport runway.

Might be time to cut your losses, Mr. Haddad. Just sayin’. All those high priced consultants will be happy to keep selling you hope as long as you’re paying them.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/8/19

617 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post are my opinions on matters of public policy and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP statute of the Great State of Texas.

Clear Debris from Drains Before Next Wave of Rain Hits

Multiple news outlets are reporting that 400 homes flooded in the Kingwood area yesterday due to street and ditch flooding. Street flooding happens when the RAINFALL RATE exceeds the DRAINAGE CAPACITY of storm sewers. Water backs up into streets where it waits until the input and output balance. But when drains are blocked by downed tree limbs, yard waste, and other debris water backs up even higher into homes as it did last night.

Please Help Clear Drains of Debris

Matt Zeve, Deputy Executive Director of Harris County Flood Control, reminds everyone that, “All citizens have a responsibility to keep their storm sewer inlets and roadside ditches clear of yard debris, trash, and other items that can cause clogging. The City of Houston and Flood Control are not able to police every single ditch and storm sewer inlet out there. We are all in this together.”

It could be your house that you save from flooding in the next rain.

How to Report Debris in Ditches

Some debris will be beyond the capability of homeowners to clear, especially in creeks and drainage ditches. For instance, see the picture below.

*Tree down in Ben’s Branch. Photo taken from Tree Lane just east of Bear Branch Elementary.*

Clearing such blockages will take professionals with chain saws and lifting equipment.

Call Harris County Flood Control at 713-684-4197 to report these types of issues. Please make sure you know the closest cross streets.

You can also contact flood control via the web.

City of Houston Also Requests Your Help in Clearing Drains

Dave Martin, Houston City Council Member said, “This morning, I asked the Mayor, and he agreed, like we did in December 2017 AFTER Harvey…in those flooded/affected areas, we will send cameras down the storm drains and sewers to see if there is any blockage. If there is, we will remediate.”

Martin continued, “We are also ‘re-engineering’ our ‘Adopt a Drain’ program which calls for our Residents to adopt a drain/storm sewer in their neighborhood, and periodically check the siltation/trash/clogging/buildup in THEIR drain.

More Rain on Way

At the start of the week, the National Weather Service forecasted 7-10 inches of rain for the week. Yesterday, when a storm stalled over Kingwood, we got that much in one afternoon. And more IS on the way.

*NOAA* *Radar as of noon on Wednesday, 5/8/19.*

Today’s Forecast from Flood Control

The next upper level disturbance is already moving into central Texas. The majority of the heavy rainfall should stay to our north today, but our area could certainly see rainfall this afternoon that could result in additional flooding, especially if it falls on areas that were hard hit on Tuesday.

Additionally there is a higher severe weather risk this afternoon especially north of I-10 where large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible.

Forecast Thursday-Saturday:

Several complexes and clusters of storms can be expected through the period each capable of dropping multiple inches of rainfall. Expect a moderate risk of flash flooding both Thursday and Friday.

Additional Rainfall Amounts

Widespread rainfall of 5-8 inches with isolated totals of 9-12 inches will be possible today through Saturday. While these totals are spread over a 3 day period, much of what falls will likely fall in bursts with each cluster of storms. Air mass remains very much capable of intense rainfall rates as observed yesterday. Hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will remain possible which will quickly result in urban flash flooding and significant street flooding.

River Report

Grounds are saturated and any additional rainfall…especially in areas that saw heavy rains on Tuesday…is going to run directly into creek, bayous, and rivers that area already highly elevated. If the rainfall forecast does indeed verify, flooding of creeks and bayous in Harris County is certainly possible along with house flooding.

While several creeks and bayous are elevated, all are receding at this time including both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River.

Flash Flood Outlook For Wednesday

Flash Flood Outlook For Wednesday

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/8/19 at noon

617 Days since Hurricane Harvey

East and West Forks Out of Banks Already, Flash Flood Watch Extended to 2 a.m. Wednesday

My friend, John Knoerzer, owner of Uniserve Air Conditioning, sent me this video from East End Park around sunset tonight. It shows the East Fork of the San Jacinto River has already come out of its banks. This was at about 6:22 p.m. Tuesday.

Even Gus the Poodle knows to stay away from the raging East Fork. Shown here: the North Loop Trail in East End Park.

I have no pictures from the West Fork, so this graph will have to do. It shows that the West Fork at US59 is already out of its banks and in the moderate flooding stage.

Flash Flood Watch Extended to 2AM Wednesday

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service has extended the Flash Flood Watch for Houston until 2 a.m. Wednesday. This means conditions are favorable for flooding to occur. A nearly stationary weak boundary is focusing training showers and thunderstorms across the watch area. Very heavy rainfall is occurring in a short time period, which can cause flooding of streets, creeks and bayous. With the loss of daytime heating, precipitation should begin to gradually weaken as we head into the overnight hours.

Said Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control, “Rainfall amounts of 5-9 inches occurred this afternoon over NE Harris County in the Kingwood/Humble area resulting in significant street flooding. Water is taking time to go down due to the large volume of water that fell in such a short period of time.”

Areas under flash flood watch as of 8:30PM Tuesday night.

Romerica Land Going Under for 7th Time in 14 Months

Harris County’s Real Time Inundation Mapping System shows that the area below the Barrington where Romerica hopes to build it’s residential, commercial and hotel high rises is largely under water as of this writing. That will make the seventh flood in the last 14 months. At times like these, I wish people, i.e., developers with dreams, would learn to listen to nature.

Take Protective Action

Be Prepared. People should bring their pets inside and delay travel or outdoor activities during periods of heavy rainfall. If travel is unavoidable, reduce your speed to avoid hydroplaning. If a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area, DO NOT travel.

Turn Around, Don’t Drown®: Do not drive through flooded areas. If you see water covering the road, do not attempt to cross it. Only a few inches of water can float a vehicle . If you find yourself in a dangerous situation where your vehicle is taking on water, get out of the vehicle, get to a higher position, and call 911.

Monitor Official Sources for Current Information: Harris County Flood Warning System (harriscountyfws.org), Houston TranStar (houstontranstar.org), and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Forecast Office (weather.gov/hgx).

Monitor Stream, Bayou, and Creek Conditions: Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing creeks and bayous to rise and possibly exceed their banks. Stay informed of current conditions and avoid traveling near creeks and bayous.

Avoid Traveling during Periods of Heavy Rain: Rain can reduce visibility and prevent you from seeing the road ahead, which could lead to accidents.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/7/19 at 8:30 PM

616 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flash Flood Warning Extended Again! Up to 10 Inches Already Today with More on Way

Update: Flash Flood Watch Extended until 8:00 PM or until cancelled.

For the second time in five days, the National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings. This means more street flooding. Move your vehicles to high ground.

Flash Flood Warning till 8:00 or Until Canceled

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning for portions of northeast Houston. It includes Lake Houston, Kingwood and northeastern Bush Intercontinental Airport, until 8:00 p.m.

Early this afternoon, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated nearly stationary thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. By 1 PM, three to almost five inches of rain had fallen and worse was yet to come. By 5PM, storm totals were approaching 10 inches with one station near FM1485 reporting 11 inches. The good news: as of 6PM, although it is still raining, the storm appears to be moving east and lessening.

Stunning Accumulations for Day That Was Supposed to be Light

Just hours ago, I posted a City of Houston alert warning of 7-10 inches of rain possible this WEEK. We have already gotten more than that today and it’s not over! And this was supposed to be the lightest day this week! Here’s what it looked like on the streets this afternoon.

Video courtesy of Josh Alberson showing the land being cleared next to HEB for retail expansion along Kingwood Drive. Someone needs to rethink that idea!

*New retail center called “The Docks” already under water. Photo courtesy of Josh Alberson.*

Taylor Gully also coming out of its banks at the end of Dunham Road. Video courtesy of Josh Alberson.

This video shows the south end of Woodland Hills Drive near the soccer field road and Romerica property.
It shows tree and water blocking the road/evacuation route. Courtesy of Mohamad-Khaled Chaouki Jrab.

*Kings Forest Pool House on Woods Estates Drive. Neighbor across the street reported more than 6″ on his rain gage.*

*House on Royal Circle in Kings Forest not far from pool house above. Photo courtesy of Cyndy Brown.*

Elsewhere:

Kingwood College closed. Water was intruding through drains and windows. No power.
The creek by Deerwood Country Club is almost over Kingwood Drive.
8″ to 9″ standing water reported in Memorial Hermann lot in HEB Center. See below.

Street by Strawbridge Methodist Church. Video courtesy of Josh Alberson.

Storm Total Accumulations

Here’s what the storm total accumulations looked like as of 5:15.

*Bright purple area in center equals 8.5 inch accumulations; darker blue areas within it show 10 inch accumulations during the course of the afternoon.*

River Report and Protective Actions

The San Jacinto river is forecasted to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to rise to near 49.6 feet by tonight. The river will fall below flood stage by after midnight
WEDNESDAY.

At 49.3 feet, minor lowland flooding begins in the vicinity of the gage; the north side turnaround at US 59 begins to flood; and low points on Thelma Road, Aqua Vista Drive, and Riverview Drive begin to flood.

People in the area should avoid the river as it rises. Residents near the river should make preparations in the event they are not able to leave their homes due to high water.

Turn Around, Don’t Drown®: Do not drive through flooded areas. If you see water covering the road, do not attempt to cross it. Only takes a few inches of water to float a vehicle . If you find yourself in a dangerous situation where your vehicle is taking on water, get out of the vehicle, get to a higher position, and call 911.

Monitor Official Sources for Current Information: Harris County Flood Warning System (harriscountyfws.org), Houston TranStar (houstontranstar.org), the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Forecast Office (weather.gov/hgx), and the National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center (weather.gov/wgcrfc).

Posted by Bob Rehak on May 7, 2019 at 2PM and update at 4PM and 6pm

616 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Houston Property Owners Should Prepare for Lower Lake Levels (or Not)

Note: I posted this this morning before a surprise storm dumped up to 10 inches of rain on the Lake Houston Area this afternoon. Now the river is expected to flood … despite the pre-release. At 7PM on Tuesday, the floodgates on Lake Houston remain wide open. As the river rises past flood stage, any thoughts of being land locked are now moot.

Houston City Council Member Dave Martin issued a press release this morning warning Lake Houston property owners to prepare for lower lake levels. Houston Public Works and the Coastal Water Authority are monitoring forecasts calling for substantial rainfall over the next several days.

Lower Lake Levels Heading Lower

Lake Houston is currently at 42.11 feet and still receiving water from weekend storms. But that’s a half inch down in the last 12 hours.

Lake Houston has a normal pool elevation of 42.5 feet. All four gates on the existing dam structure are open and will remain open with a goal of lowering the lake to 41.5 feet before the next round of rainfall. Property owners are encouraged to secure property along the shoreline.

Lake-Lowering Policy

Lake Houston is lowered if the National Weather Service predicts greater than 3 inches of rain within a 48-hour period. To monitor Lake Houston and the forecasted rain, click here.

*6-day precipitation forecast: 7 inches across the Houston Metro Area*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/7/2019

616 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Pre-Storm Lake- and River-Level Report

With major rainfall expected this week, here is a pre-storm report on lake and river levels.

Lake Conroe Pre-Storm

Even though Lake Conroe has released water continuously since April 1, the SJRA has not succeeded in reducing the lake level to their seasonal target of 200 feet. They were close at one point, but recent rains have elevated the lake back to its normal pool level. As of this writing, the lake is at 200.87 feet. Normal level is 201 mean feet above sea level. Thus Lake Conroe is only down about one tenth of an inch despite the fact that the SJRA continues to release water at the rate of 522 cubic feet per second.

*Lake Conroe levels for the last week. On May 1, the SJRA increased the release rate from about 350 cfs to 522 cfs. Despite that, the lake has risen back to its normal level because of recent rains.*

Here’s a picture of the massive gates at Lake Conroe. Compare them to…

*The gates at Lake Conroe can release water at up too 150,000 CFS but are currently releasing at only 522 CFS to avoid flooding downstream areas.*

Lake Houston Pre-Storm

Lake Houston has its gates wide open. At that setting, they can release 10,000 CFS. But the recent rains are also refilling Lake Houston as fast as its draining. Normal pool level is 42.5 feet and the lake is presently. at 42.6 feet. This is why we need more gates!

*Gates on Lake Houston can release a maximum of 10,000 cubic feet per second, one fifteenth the rate of Lake Conroe.*

To summarize, both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston are within a tenth of an inch of normal levels. Both are releasing water. Lake Houston is releasing water as fast as it can. Lake Conroe cannot release any faster without flooding the Humble/Kingwood area, especially with more rain on the way.

Additional rainfall tomorrow should saturate the ground. More storms later in the week could cause river flooding. Harris County Flood Control expects heavy rain for the next 5-7 days.

Pre-Storm River Report

With rivers already highly elevated and some at or above flood stage, additional widespread heavy rainfall will only aggravate ongoing flooding or result in worsening flooding especially along the Trinity and Brazos basins.

San Jacinto River:

No flooding is currently impacting the basin, but forecasts for this week indicate significant rainfall potential over the basin. If accurate, the rainfall would result in significant rises on the system.

Trinity River:

Flooding is in progress both upstream of Lake Livingston and downstream of the lake in Liberty County. Flooding will continue through the end of the week and likely into next week. Liberty may approach major flood levels by the end of the week depending on releases from Lake Livingston.

Navasota River:

Minor flooding is in progress as upstream releases from Lake Limestone are maintained. River is in recession and may fall back below flood stage by the middle of the week.

Colorado River:

Upstream weekend flood wave is moving downstream and is at Columbus and will near approaching Wharton in the next 24-36 hours. No flooding is currently expected on the Colorado basin.

Brazos River:

Flood wave is passing Bryan and heading for Hempstead. Minor flooding is forecasted for Richmond and moderate flooding at Rosharon. These three charts tell the story.

Brazos River at Hempstead:

Brazos River at Richmond:

Brazos River at Rosharon:

Unlike street flooding which is fast and local, river flooding is delayed and regional. As you can see from these charts, it can take days for upstream rains to create downstream floods.

Please Help

Rains later this week could be intense. Some forecasters are predicting up to 10 inches. Make sure the storm drains on your street are clear. If you can’t remove accumulated debris yourself, please call 3-1-1. The last thing we need is for all the downed tree branches, twigs, and leaf litter from last week to clog drains with 10 more inches on the way.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/6/2019

615 Days since Hurricane Harvey