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TD 3 Close to Tropical Storm Strength; Dumping Torrential Rains Over Mexico, Central America

Confidence is increasing that a tropical system will be moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. It will threaten some portions of the US Gulf coast. However, the National Hurricane Center advises that it’s still too early to pinpoint where the greatest impacts may be.

Harris County Flood Control Meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the Gulf coast to fully stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to enact. “By Sunday morning, it is likely there will be a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico,” he says.

*Source: NHC. Indicates conditions as of 10a.m. CDT on 6/2/2020.*

At This Moment…

Slow-moving Tropical Depression Three (TD 3) is still in the Bay of Campeche and:

CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

Summary of Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next within 24 to 36 hours.

Current Location and Conditions

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The depression is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday.

NHC forecasts the center of the cyclone to remain near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.

USAF plane recorded flight-level winds of 44 kts.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

TD 3 A Rainmaker

NHC expects TD 3 to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.

The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.

Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Wind Probabilities

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight.

*Source: NOAA. Probably Tracking of TD 3 and earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds.*

It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant. A chance exists that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property.

Key Takeaways

Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season.

Houston Forecast For the Week

Today, mostly sunny with light winds. Expect similar conditions on Wednesday, with the possibility of scattered showers and highs of around 90 degrees.

The second half of the week will see warmer weather as high pressure continues to build over the area. We are likely to see high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Mostly sunny skies and only slight rain chances during the afternoon hours. Nights will be warm and muggy, in the 70s.

The location of a high pressure system to our north late in the week will likely determine the track of TD 3. Monitor forecasts closely.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/2020

1008 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Gulf

For the last two days, the National Hurricane Center has upped the chances of a tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico this week. This afternoon, the chances went from 80% to 90% at 1 pm CDT. Now, at 5:30, Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist is saying, TD 3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Surface observations and visible satellite images indicate that remains of Pacific TS Amanda have now moved over the Bay of Campeche and a low level circulation has become re-established.

Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.
National Hurricane Center

Further Development Expected in Next 24 Hours

The disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development. The NHC says a tropical depression or storm will likely form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.

NHC says the system could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Mexico and Central America this week.

A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for the coast of Mexico.

Longer Range Outlook Cloudier

NHC forecasts the system to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week after wandering around in the Bay of Campeche. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the US Gulf Coast.

The Center still lists the chances of tropical storm formation at 90 percent. Satellite images already show the beginning of rotation.

Conditions are favorable for some slow increase in strength as the surface circulation moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Upper level winds within a large area of deep tropical moisture suggest TD 3 will likely become a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. A USAF mission is planned for Tuesday to determine the organization and intensity of the system. After 24 hours much of the intensity forecast will be driven by how much the center interacts with the landmass of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Likely with Winds Up To 60 MPH

The official forecast brings TD 3 to a 60mph tropical storm as it begins to eject NNE into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes to the forecast track and intensity will be possible with this system over the next several days.

Separately, NOAA has issued a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

What a day for the start of hurricane season! People along the US Gulf coast should review hurricane preparation plans and make sure hurricane supply kits are fully stocked and check weather forecasts at least once a day this week.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 5:30 pm

1007 Days since Hurricane Harvey

NHC Upgrades Chances of Topical System Formation in Gulf to 80%

Update: This post was created at 10 a.m. As of 1 p.m. the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical development another 10% to 90%.

Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda moved into Central America and southern Mexico last weekend. It is now poised to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and may form another tropical system. Since yesterday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of formation within the next two days from 40% to 80%. The NHC also upgraded chances of formation within five days from 50% to 80%.

*Remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda over the Yucatan and Central America. Source: NOAA. Motion is toward the northwest.*

*Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center.* *As of 7am 6/1/2020.*

Will Likely Move into Bay of Campeche

NHC expects this large area of disturbed weather to move northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Environmental conditions there are expected to be conducive to support development.

A new tropical depression is likely to form within within the next day or so.
National Hurricane Center

The system is moving around the northern side of a nearly stationary central American monsoon trough.

Conditions over the Bay of Campeche appear favorable for slow development of a surface low pressure system. Those conditions include:

Warm sea surface temperatures
Light upper level winds
Rising air motions
An envelope of tropical moisture.

*Water vapor intensity and circulation. Source: University of Wisconsin Madison Space Science and Engineering Center.*

Heavy Rainfall for Southern Neighbors For the Moment

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall should continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.

System Likely to Loop in Bay of Campeche Before Moving North

The tropical system will loop or remained stalled in the Bay of Campeche (the bay between the Yucatan and Mexican mainland) for the next 2-4 days. After that, most models take it toward the US Gulf coast, but there is little agreement among the models at this early stage of formation. Currently, they indicate landfall anywhere between Mexico and Florida. We should have a better indication of the track toward the middle of this week.

Official Start of Hurricane Season Today

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The list of names for 2020 follows:

Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that develops this season will be Cristobal.

The NHC monitors significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation. NHC updates forecasts at 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 AM, and 7 PM CDT.

What You

Harris County Flood Control meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the US Gulf coast to closely monitor the progress of this system. “Now is a very good time to review plans and fully stock preparation kits,” he says.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 10am with thanks to NHC, HCFCD and Univ. of Wisconsin

1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey

NHC Gives 40-50% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation In Gulf This Week

NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

*Source: National Hurricane Center 5 Day Tropical Outlook for Atlantic* as of 7:05AM CDT on 5/31/2020

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, now centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, to weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight.

However, the NHC also predicts that the remnants of Amanda will move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday.

If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week.

Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.

Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

If it does become a named storm, it would be Cristobal.

*Tropical Storm Amanda will likely cross into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. (Source: NOAA via Space City Weather).*

Too Early to Predict Direction of Storm

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist, says, “Where exactly any center forms will determine what sort of longer term track would be possible … across the Gulf of Mexico.”

“Regardless of development,” he continues, “a large plume of tropical moisture will be moving into the SW and eventually the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Some of this moisture will likely get directed toward the Texas coast by late week and next weekend.”

“As with any tropical system in this stage of potential development, there is lots of uncertainty.”

“The best course of action is to monitor weather forecasts daily and National Hurricane Center outlooks for any changes.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control meteorologist

Preparedness

Hurricane season starts tomorrow. The NHC predicts above-average activity this hurricane season.

*Source: National Hurricane Center prediction on 5/21/2020.*

Now would be a good time to prepare. The major risks in the Lake Houston area include river and street flooding (as we saw with Harvey, Allison and Imelda) and wind damage (as we saw with Ike). Ike led to prolonged power outages due to trees falling against power lines.

Make sure you have fresh batteries and a backup supply, as well as a weather radio.

Also make sure you have a way to charge your cell phone (vehicle or power block). And make sure you learn how to use the Harris County Flood Warning System to increase your situational awareness.

Familiarize yourself with the LINKS page of this website. It contains links to many useful sites specializing in preparedness and weather.

Remember: the COVID crisis presents an extra layer of complication this year.

Lake Level Report

As of this morning, the level of Lake Conroe was 200.23 feet and the SJRA continues releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Their goal: to bring the lake down to 200 feet by tomorrow.

Also as of this morning, the Coastal Water Authority indicates that the level of Lake Houston is down approximately one foot.

Lake Level	41.46 ft.
Normal Pool	42.4 ft.

Source: Coastal Water Authority readings as of 7:30am 5/31/2020.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/2020

1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Sand Miners Act Like They Own Our Rivers

Who owns our rivers? In Texas, the state owns navigable streams and rivers. People may not obstruct them, drive through them, dump waste in them, or mine them – at least not without a permit. But sand miners constantly violate those laws with only slap-on-the-wrist fines that amount to another “cost of doing business.” Meanwhile, you are the one who pays the price.

Navigable Streams/Rivers Protected for Public

What does “navigable” mean? This Texas Parks & Wildlife web page describes the concept of navigability “in fact” and “in statute.” There is no precise test for whether a stream is navigable in fact. One court observed that “[w]aters, which in their natural state are useful to the public for a considerable portion of the year are navigable.”

Another link to Texas Parks & Wildlife describes stream navigation law, specifically “Private Uses, Obstructions, Bridges and Dams.”

“Since the days of the civil law of Spain and Mexico, obstructions of navigable streams have been forbidden,” the page begins. “Nowadays the Texas Penal Code, the Texas Water Code, and the Texas Parks and Wildlife Code contain prohibitions against obstructing navigable streams, and the Texas Natural Resources Code forbids unauthorized private structures.”

The Commissioner of the General Land Office has some authority to grant easements for rights of way across navigable or state-owned stream beds.

No Right to Obstruct Navigation

However, in general, no one has the right to obstruct navigation or interfere with recreation.

Parks & Wildlife Code § 90.008 states regarding Public Access: “Except as otherwise allowed by law, a person may not restrict, obstruct, interfere with, or limit public recreational use of a protected freshwater area.”

The “protected freshwater area” referred to above is defined in § 90.001 to be “the portion of the bed, bottom, or bank of a stream navigable by statute up to the gradient boundary.” That gets complicated, but generally, it means between vegetated river banks. Sand bars in a river are normally considered part of the river bed even if above water.

Prohibition Against Motor Vehicles in Rivers

In addition to the restrictions on obstruction of navigability, landowners (and the public) are generally prohibited from operating a motor vehicle in the bed of a navigable waterway (Tex. Parks & Wild. Code Section 90.002).

Prohibition Against Unauthorized Discharges

Numerous posts on this website have dealt with the legal limitations on discharging wastewater from sand mines. In general, it’s supposed to contain no more suspended solids and be no more turbid than natural levels in water upstream from the mine.

The only problem with that concept: when you have 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile stretch of the river, it’s hard to find unpolluted water. In effect, the procedure/standard continually “lowers the bar” as you move downstream.

Out of Sight Makes Blight

What sparked this inquiry? As I fly up and down the West Fork, I see things normally out of public view. Such as miners’ dredge lines stretched across the river, blocking navigation. Such as trucks crossing rivers. Such as mines flushing wastewater down the river. Such as mining the riverbed, without permits or paying appropriate taxes.

Few people ever see these violations. And that has led to boldness on the part of miners. There’s little chance they will be caught. It’s kind of like speeding through a barren desert.

I have no idea whether any of the miners involved in most of the incidents below bothered to obtain permits. I do know that in many cases they have not.

Here is a small sampling of what I see from the air, month after month.

Dredge Pipelines Blocking River

*Dredge lines block river at Hallett truck crossing.*

*Dredge lines blocking river at Hanson Aggregates on West Fork in Conroe.*

Vehicles Driving Through River

*Vehicle about to cross river toward Hanson Aggregates Mine on West Fork*

Breaches Dump Wastewater into Drinking Water

*Breach at Triple PG mine into Caney Creek that was left open for months, now subject of a lawsuit by the Attorney General.*

*Another breach left open for months at same mine.*

*Breach into West Fork at Hallett Mine. Hallett says this was their stormwater outfall. It was open for years, but is now closed.*

*Plugged breach at Hanson Aggregates on West Fork*

*Often mines don’t breach directly into a river where it would be obvious. Here, the LMI River Bend mine drains onto adjacent properties which then drain to the West Fork.*

*Same area as above but closer to breach.*

Abandoned Without Reclamation

*Equipment abandoned in floodway at abandoned West Fork mine. Note oily scum on water.*

*Another abandoned River Aggregates mine perpetually leaks turbid water into West Fork. Even though mine is not active, an adjacent Hallett pit often leaks into this one and causes it to overflow.*

Pumping Wastewater to River and Adjoining Properties

*Triple PG mine pumped wastewater over its dike onto adjoining properties while operating under an injunction. Note how water is higher outside the mine (strip of trees in middle of image) than inside.*

*Note pipe in dike at Hanson Aggregates mine at allows water to drain out into ditch that runs to river.*

*Pumping water over the dike at LMI’s Moorehead mine.*

*Pumping wastewater into West Fork at Hallett Mine*

*At site of former breach, note how pipes now carry wastewater to West Fork from Hallett Mine.* *Water experts say that intense blue color is either cyanobacteria or extremely high chloride content in water.*

River Mining Without Permit

Effect on Water Quality

*Looking north at confluence of West Fork (top) and Spring Creek by US59. West Fork usually runs murkier than Spring Creek right. Almost all area sand mines are on West Fork.*

*Same confluence as above but looking west.* *56,000,000 gallons of white goop from Liberty Mine breach turned West Fork (right) white.*

Contributing to Blockages and Flooding

Rivers transport sand and sediment naturally. But with 20 square miles of sand mines built in the floodway of the West Fork upstream from the Lake Houston Area, miners have increased the potential for erosion 33x compared to the average width of the river. The pictures below, taken shortly after Harvey, show the results.

A six foot high dune not present before Harvey occluded the West Fork by 90% according to the US Army Corps of Engineers. More than 600 homes and hundreds of businesses flooded upstream from this blockage.

*West fork San Jacinto Mouth Bar after Harvey. Thousands of homes upstream from this blockage flooded during Harvey. It’s costing taxpayers more than $100 million to remove such blockages.*

Please share this post with friends and family. It’s time to start getting ready for the next legislative session.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2020

1005 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

SJRA Resumes Seasonal Release 3 Days Before Scheduled End

For the record, this morning, the SJRA resumed lowering Lake Conroe just three days before the scheduled end of its Spring seasonal release. As of 1PM, the SJRA is releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Recent rains raised the lake level more than a half foot from the target of 200 feet to 200.53 feet.

*Source SJRA.net as of approximately 11 a.m. on May 29, 2020.*

SJRA Coordinated with CoH

The lake had risen to approximately 200.4 feet for the last two weeks of May. And, when heavy rains entered the forecast, readers began to ask whether SJRA would lower it to 200 again. However, SJRA did not resume lowering at that time.

Reportedly, the City of Houston was worried about overloading Lake Houston at a time when:

Dam repairs were in progress
Heavy rainfall was in the forecast

So the SJRA held water back.

What 500 CFS looks like. Photographed 7/31/2018, during a tour of the Lake Conroe Dam. *The current release is three times this rate.*

According to sources, the Coastal Water Authority has opened its gates on Lake Houston and is coordinating release rates with the SJRA so as not to flood downstream residents.

Exact Text of Spring Lake Lowering Policy

For the record, here is the official SJRA lake lowering policy renewed with some modifications after months of divisive debate. Lake Houston residents wanted the extra buffer against flooding. Lake Conroe residents claimed there was no proof it worked. They also claimed that it was lowering their property values and destroying their tax base.

In the Spring, the policy calls for:

“Beginning April 1, release only an amount of water from Lake Conroe to create a one foot capacity to catch rainfall and storm runoff (from 201’ mean sea level to 200’ msl). Recapture of lake level beginning June 1.”

Average Lake Level By Month for 46 Years

Also note that the lake level rarely reaches 201. The average varies each month depending on rainfall and evaporation. So when Lake Conroe reached 200.53, it exceeded the norm.

*Lake Conroe seasonal levels by month. Source: SJRA*

We need to watch this closely. In 2.5 days, this release should stop until the SJRA resumes seasonal releases on August 1. Please report any flooding through the contact page on this web site.

Text of Fall Policy

The fall seasonal lowering coincides with the peak of hurricane season. The SJRA Fall seasonal lowering policy states:

Beginning August 1, release only an amount of water from Lake Conroe to create a one foot capacity to catch rainfall and storm runoff (from 201’ msl to 200’ msl). After September 1, increase capacity an additional six inches (from 200’ msl to 199.5’ msl). If a named storm is predicted to impact our region, the COH may initiate an additional release of six inches (to 199’ msl) by notifying SJRA in writing of their call for release. Recapture beginning October 1.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/2020

1004 Days after Hurricane Harvey

City of Houston Contractors to Begin East Fork Debris Removal

Disaster Recovery Corporation, a contractor for the City of Houston will soon begin debris removal on the San Jacinto East Fork.

Scope of Work

The scope of this particular phase of debris removal extends from just north of the southern tip of Lake Houston Park to about halfway up the east side of the 5000 acre park. See the start and stop points on the satellite image below.

*The City of Houston should begin debris removal on the east side of Lake Houston Park next week.*

The distance covered equals 2 miles as crow flies or 3 miles as the fish swims.

Debris Includes…

Here are FEMA guidelines for debris removal. Debris can include trees, sunken boats, old tires, vehicles, and other things washed downstream in floods. It is basically any debris in the water, or below the surface at a depth that is equal to the maximum draft level of the largest vessel that would use the waterway plus 2 feet. Debris also includes trees that are leaning or that pose a threat to public safety.

Beginning First Week in June

Work should start the first week in June. Authorities eventually expect the work to extend up to the Harris County line at FM1485 near the extension of the Grand Parkway.

Debris Removal to Date

Debris removal to date in other places on the East and West Forks and their tributaries has consisted mainly of the removal of downed trees. On Lake Houston, debris removal began almost exactly two years ago.

The trees pose hazards to navigation and can form logjams that back water up in floods, threatening homes and businesses. They also can get hung up on bridge supports and the Lake Houston Dam, threatening infrastructure.

During Harvey, trees swept downstream and caught up in the supports for the Union Pacific and the southbound Highway 59 bridges over the West Fork in Humble. Both bridges had to be replaced. Trees also blocked flow at the FM1960 bridge and the rail bridge in Lake Houston.

Trees enter the waterway when floodwaters undermine river banks or simply rip trees out by their roots.

*Downed trees on West Fork after Hurricane Harvey flood. Photo taken September 14, 2017*

*Dead tree removal on Lake Houston in June 2018.*

*This pontoon carried dead trees as well as fencing that had been swept into the river. September 2018.*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/2020

1004 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 253 since Imelda

Easy Way to Assess Your Flood Potential in Near Real Time

Residents of Harris County and surrounding areas now have and easy way to assess flood potential near them in near real time. It’s called the Harris County Flood Warning System website. It offers near-real-time information from 100+ gages on major streams and rivers throughout the entire region.

Below, you can see part of the welcome screen, zoomed into the North Houston area. It shows the amount of rainfall at each gage.

*North Houston rainfall for last 24 hours as of 5/28/2020.* *Source: Harris County Flood Warning System.*

Most of north Harris County received less than an inch of rainfall yesterday. However, areas to the west, north, and south received up to three inches. Areas upstream from Kingwood received five to six times more rainfall that the Lake Houston Area.

Rainfall patterns like that can lull people into a false sense of security because flooding originates upstream and works its way down.

Given the severity of yesterday’s storms, several people asked last night and this morning, “What is the potential for flooding?” The Harris County Flood Warning System provides answers. Here’s how to use it for maximum effect.

Customized Alerts from Flood Warning System

First, note that The Flood Warning System allows you to create an account and customize alerts. While not necessary, it helps reduce extraneous information in emergencies, so you only receive messages that affect you.

For instance, the San Jacinto West Fork, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek affect those living in the Humble/Kingwood area. All three converge just west of the US59 bridge. So you could sign up for alerts only from gages in those areas.

Data-Driven Mapping System

Note that the Flood Warning System lets you select several map view options to help you understand conditions near you as well as upstream. For instance, if you click “Watersheds” and “Channel Status,” you can see:

Which watershed you live in
The near-real-time status of gages in that area
Where flood danger or possible flooding exists

*Harris County Flood Warning System as of 5/28/2020, 11am.* *With Channel Status and Watershed options selected.*

Drilling Down to Areas of Interest

From there, you can click on gages of interest. The green squares indicate “no flooding danger.” The yellow triangles mean “potential danger.” Red means “flooding.”

So, clicking on the yellow triangle by Shenandoah in the Spring Creek Watershed lets me investigate what’s happening at that gage. See below.

Source: Harris County Flood Warning System at 11:13 a.m. on 5/28/2020.

From this information, I can see that the channel is higher than normal, but still well within its banks. The top of bank (TOB) is at 156.26 feet. But the current water level is only at 154.33 feet. More important, I can see from the graph that the water level has peaked and is trending down.

With all other reporting stations in my watershed showing “green,” I can breath easy. Unless we get major rainfall upstream this afternoon. After all, this creek rose 3.5 feet yesterday after receiving about 2 inches of rain upstream. Today, soils are highly saturated and the creek is only about 2 feet from coming out of its banks. Another two inches of rain could cause flooding. (See forecast at bottom of this post.)

Other Valuable Features

Among other features, Harris County’s Flood Warning System offers:

Historical data so that you can compare current water level data to past floods that may have threatened your home.
Rainfall alarms that tell you when particularly heavy downpours have occurred near you that could trigger street or stream flooding.
Inundation mapping that shows the extent of flooding during flood events.
Color-coded channel status maps to show you at a glance where streams are flooding
Links to weather alerts

All in all, Harris County Flood Control District has built a powerful tool with its Flood Warning System. It’s intuitive, uncluttered and easy to use, giving you the information you need, when you need it, where you need it, in the form you need it.

It’s fun to explore all the options. If it rains again this afternoon, use the opportunity to teach your family how to use it.

With the information on this web site, Lake Houston Area residents who flooded during Harvey could have seen the 80,000 cubic feet per second released from Lake Conroe barreling down the West Fork toward them…despite the breakdown in the emergency warning system. They could have evacuated sooner. They could have saved vehicles, valuables, and in some cases even lives.

Everyone should become familiar with the Flood Warning System, learn how to use it and bookmark it. If I were a science teacher in this area, learning how to use this site would become part of my curriculum.

Unsettled Weather Continues Today

Chances of additional heavy rainfall in the Lake Houston Area are lower today than yesterday. However, potential for scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon remains, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist.

Lindner adds, “…given the developing instability and cold air aloft, large hail and gusty winds are possible. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does have nearly all of the area in a “marginal” risk for severe storms this afternoon with a higher threat to our west across southwest and south central TX.”

It will be hard to predict the exact location of these storms, says Lindner. “We could see some additional very heavy rainfall with the storms this afternoon (1-2 inches) in an hour or less. And while grounds are becoming saturated from all the recent rain, only street flooding is expected.”

“With that said, upper Spring and upper Little Cypress Creeks are elevated and should heavy rains impact NW Harris County, there could be some minor lowland flooding along the headwaters of those channels.”

“Upper level high pressure begins to build into the area Friday and will gain a foothold over the region this weekend into next week. Expect rain chances to taper back to only 10-20%. We can probably cut chances completely by Sunday,” says Lindner.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/2020

1003 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Keep Eyes on the Skies: Severe Storm Warning Through Tonight

My phone has blown up with unexpected severe storm warnings in the last hour. A line of strong thunderstorms is racing toward Southeast Texas and the Houston region.

National Weather Service lists the main threats as:

Large hail (golf ball size)
Strong winds up to 70 mph
Lightening

Protective Actions

For your protection, they advise moving to an interior room on the lowest floor of the building you are in. Put cars in a garage if you can.

People in the affected area are urged to seek shelter immediately in an interior room without windows and on the lowest floor of a building. People should bring their pets inside and delay travel or outdoor activities until the storm passes. If travel is unavoidable, reduce your speed to avoid hydroplaning. Heavy rains may also impact the area and only a few inches of water can float a vehicle. When you see water covering the road, Turn Around, Don’t Drown®.

The immediate danger as of 3:49 pm is in Waller and Montgomery counties. The watch lasts until 9PM or until cancelled. The NWS cancelled a tornado watch associated with this storm at 3:45 PM.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control meteorologist, predicts, “This should be the final round of weather associated with this slow moving upper level low as high pressure begins to build over the area Friday into the weekend.”

Posted by Bob Rehak based on NWS warning on 5/27/2020 at 3:55 PM

1002 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Development Watch List: Orchard Seeded Ranches From the Air

The Romerica high-rise project near the floodway of the San Jacinto West Fork was reborn recently as Orchard Seeded Ranc h es. Same property. Same developer. Undisclosed concept as of this date.

When the developer sought approval of their general plan from the City of Houston Planning Commission, the City deferred approval. Instead they asked the developer to consult with the City Engineer and Harris County Flood Control, before coming back to the commission.

Despite the location of the development in the floodplain and floodway of the West Fork, ironically, the City had only procedural comments on the plans. The comments had to do with things like the spacing and labelling of streets. Incredibly, they did not refer to potential flooding or wetlands issues.

Pending Regulation Changes Could Affect Development

However, regulation changes are pending. Harris County has made adoption of its Atlas-14-based stormwater design and floodplain standards a condition of participating in all flood bond projects. Those standards would require elevation of any homes built on the Romerica property. In practical terms, that means building on stilts. And that, in turn, means dollars.

Specifically, the County wants the City to change Article III: Standards for Flood Hazard Reduction in the Houston Code of Ordinances, Chapter 19 Floodplain (September 2018):

19-33(a) Base Flood Elevation Requirements –Must also include a provision that no fill will be allowed to elevate structures proposed for the 100-year floodplain. These structures must be on open foundations designed by a structural engineer.

Where Property Is

Here’s where the property is. It wraps around the Barrington, which was elevated significantly and still flooded during Harvey. It also wraps around River Grove Park Kingwood Country Club, and Deer Ridge Park.

*Purple area represents proposed site of Romerica’s Orchard Seeded Ranches Development.*

Large Concentration of Forested Wetlands

All aerial photos below were taken on 5/11/2020.

*Looking southeast from the southwest corner of Romerica’s property. Hamblen Road enters the from on the middle right. That’s the San Jacinto West Fork cutting through the top of the frame.*

Looking southeast while hovering over Woodland Hills Drive. The northern part of Romerica’s property lies between the front and back nines of the Kingwood Country Club Lake Course. That’s the Barrington on the right.

*Those same trees serve as a nesting ground for hundreds of great egrets.*

Looking southwest from near the entrance from Barrington. Deer Ridge Park wraps around the water tower.

*Looking SE over Woodland Hills and the Barrington entrance. The property contains three artificial lakes, which I believe were excavated to elevate the Barrington.* *Note how high lake level/water table is. River Grove soccer fields are on right. Look closely and you can also see the Kingwood Diversion Ditch entering the park from the lower right.*

From the ground, beneath the dense canopy of trees, you can see palmettos galore. Palmetto plants are an important biologic indicator of wetlands. They only grow where the ground is underwater at least part of the year.

Source: USGS National Wetlands Inventory. Blue areas = lake. Green = Forested Wetlands.

Role of Wetlands in Reducing Flooding

The EPA cites flood protection as one of the primary benefits of wetlands.

“Wetlands function as natural sponges that trap and slowly release surface water, rain, … and flood waters. Trees, root mats and other wetland vegetation also slow the speed of flood waters and distribute them more slowly over the floodplain. This combined water storage an braking action lowers flood heights and reduces erosion,” says the Agency.

They continue: “Wetlands within and downstream of urban areas are particularly valuable, counteracting the greatly increased rate and volume of surface- water runoff from pavement and buildings. The holding capacity of wetlands helps control floods… Preserving and restoring wetlands together with other water retention can often provide the level of flood control otherwise provided by expensive dredge operations and levees. The bottomland hardwood- riparian wetlands along the Mississippi River once stored at least 60 days of floodwater. Now they store only 12 days because most have been filled or drained.”

Reasons Romerica Application Previously Withdrawn

Last year, when Romerica tried to develop this area as condos and high rises, they ran into protests from US Fish and Wildlife Service, the Army Corps, environmental groups, and the Kingwood community. Major concerns included the filling of wetlands, nesting bald eagles, river migration, flood dangers to residents, and lack of evacuation routes.

*Fence separating Romerica property from Hamblen road after Harvey.*

All those concerns still exist. Romerica should take a cue from the Humble ISD. They’ve had two ag barns in this area. The District abandoned one (that was actually on Romerica property), moved to higher ground, is trying to abandon the second, and hopes to move to higher ground yet again.

As of this writing, Romerica has not yet reapplied to the City Planning Commission. Nor has the City adopted all of the County’s Atlas-14 regulations.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/27/2020

1002 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.