NHC Upgrades Chances of Topical System Formation in Gulf to 80%

Update: This post was created at 10 a.m. As of 1 p.m. the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical development another 10% to 90%.

Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda moved into Central America and southern Mexico last weekend. It is now poised to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and may form another tropical system. Since yesterday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of formation within the next two days from 40% to 80%. The NHC also upgraded chances of formation within five days from 50% to 80%.

Remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda over the Yucatan and Central America. Source: NOAA. Motion is toward the northwest.
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center. As of 7am 6/1/2020.

Will Likely Move into Bay of Campeche

NHC expects this large area of disturbed weather to move northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Environmental conditions there are expected to be conducive to support development.

A new tropical depression is likely to form within within the next day or so.

National Hurricane Center

The system is moving around the northern side of a nearly stationary central American monsoon trough.

Conditions over the Bay of Campeche appear favorable for slow development of a surface low pressure system. Those conditions include:

  • Warm sea surface temperatures
  • Light upper level winds
  • Rising air motions
  • An envelope of tropical moisture.
Water vapor intensity and circulation. Source: University of Wisconsin Madison Space Science and Engineering Center.

Heavy Rainfall for Southern Neighbors For the Moment

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall should continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.

System Likely to Loop in Bay of Campeche Before Moving North

The tropical system will loop or remained stalled in the Bay of Campeche (the bay between the Yucatan and Mexican mainland) for the next 2-4 days. After that, most models take it toward the US Gulf coast, but there is little agreement among the models at this early stage of formation. Currently, they indicate landfall anywhere between Mexico and Florida. We should have a better indication of the track toward the middle of this week.

Official Start of Hurricane Season Today

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The list of names for 2020 follows:

Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that develops this season will be Cristobal.

The NHC monitors significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation. NHC updates forecasts at 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 AM, and 7 PM CDT.

What You

Harris County Flood Control meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the US Gulf coast to closely monitor the progress of this system. “Now is a very good time to review plans and fully stock preparation kits,” he says.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 10am with thanks to NHC, HCFCD and Univ. of Wisconsin

1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey

NHC Gives 40-50% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation In Gulf This Week

NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

Source: National Hurricane Center 5 Day Tropical Outlook for Atlantic as of 7:05AM CDT on 5/31/2020

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, now centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, to weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight.

However, the NHC also predicts that the remnants of Amanda will move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday.

If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week.

Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

 If it does become a named storm, it would be Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Amanda will likely cross into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. (Source: NOAA via Space City Weather).

Too Early to Predict Direction of Storm

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist, says, “Where exactly any center forms will determine what sort of longer term track would be possible … across the Gulf of Mexico.”

“Regardless of development,” he continues, “a large plume of tropical moisture will be moving into the SW and eventually the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Some of this moisture will likely get directed toward the Texas coast by late week and next weekend.”

“As with any tropical system in this stage of potential development, there is lots of uncertainty.”

“The best course of action is to monitor weather forecasts daily and National Hurricane Center outlooks for any changes.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control meteorologist

Preparedness

Hurricane season starts tomorrow. The NHC predicts above-average activity this hurricane season.

Source: National Hurricane Center prediction on 5/21/2020.

Now would be a good time to prepare. The major risks in the Lake Houston area include river and street flooding (as we saw with Harvey, Allison and Imelda) and wind damage (as we saw with Ike). Ike led to prolonged power outages due to trees falling against power lines.

Make sure you have fresh batteries and a backup supply, as well as a weather radio.

Also make sure you have a way to charge your cell phone (vehicle or power block). And make sure you learn how to use the Harris County Flood Warning System to increase your situational awareness.

Familiarize yourself with the LINKS page of this website. It contains links to many useful sites specializing in preparedness and weather.

Remember: the COVID crisis presents an extra layer of complication this year.

Lake Level Report

As of this morning, the level of Lake Conroe was 200.23 feet and the SJRA continues releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Their goal: to bring the lake down to 200 feet by tomorrow.

Also as of this morning, the Coastal Water Authority indicates that the level of Lake Houston is down approximately one foot.

Lake Level41.46 ft.
Normal Pool42.4 ft.
Source: Coastal Water Authority readings as of 7:30am 5/31/2020.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/2020

1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Sand Miners Act Like They Own Our Rivers

Who owns our rivers? In Texas, the state owns navigable streams and rivers. People may not obstruct them, drive through them, dump waste in them, or mine them – at least not without a permit. But sand miners constantly violate those laws with only slap-on-the-wrist fines that amount to another “cost of doing business.” Meanwhile, you are the one who pays the price.

Navigable Streams/Rivers Protected for Public

What does “navigable” mean? This Texas Parks & Wildlife web page describes the concept of navigability “in fact” and “in statute.” There is no precise test for whether a stream is navigable in fact. One court observed that “[w]aters, which in their natural state are useful to the public for a considerable portion of the year are navigable.”

Another link to Texas Parks & Wildlife describes stream navigation law, specifically “Private Uses, Obstructions, Bridges and Dams.”

“Since the days of the civil law of Spain and Mexico, obstructions of navigable streams have been forbidden,” the page begins. “Nowadays the Texas Penal Code, the Texas Water Code, and the Texas Parks and Wildlife Code contain prohibitions against obstructing navigable streams, and the Texas Natural Resources Code forbids unauthorized private structures.”

The Commissioner of the General Land Office has some authority to grant easements for rights of way across navigable or state-owned stream beds.

No Right to Obstruct Navigation

However, in general, no one has the right to obstruct navigation or interfere with recreation.

Parks & Wildlife Code § 90.008 states regarding Public Access: “Except as otherwise allowed by law, a person may not restrict, obstruct, interfere with, or limit public recreational use of a protected freshwater area.”

The “protected freshwater area” referred to above is defined in § 90.001 to be “the portion of the bed, bottom, or bank of a stream navigable by statute up to the gradient boundary.” That gets complicated, but generally, it means between vegetated river banks. Sand bars in a river are normally considered part of the river bed even if above water.

Prohibition Against Motor Vehicles in Rivers

In addition to the restrictions on obstruction of navigability, landowners (and the public) are generally prohibited from operating a motor vehicle in the bed of a navigable waterway (Tex. Parks & Wild. Code Section 90.002).

Prohibition Against Unauthorized Discharges

Numerous posts on this website have dealt with the legal limitations on discharging wastewater from sand mines. In general, it’s supposed to contain no more suspended solids and be no more turbid than natural levels in water upstream from the mine.

The only problem with that concept: when you have 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile stretch of the river, it’s hard to find unpolluted water. In effect, the procedure/standard continually “lowers the bar” as you move downstream.

Out of Sight Makes Blight

What sparked this inquiry? As I fly up and down the West Fork, I see things normally out of public view. Such as miners’ dredge lines stretched across the river, blocking navigation. Such as trucks crossing rivers. Such as mines flushing wastewater down the river. Such as mining the riverbed, without permits or paying appropriate taxes.

Few people ever see these violations. And that has led to boldness on the part of miners. There’s little chance they will be caught. It’s kind of like speeding through a barren desert.

I have no idea whether any of the miners involved in most of the incidents below bothered to obtain permits. I do know that in many cases they have not.

Here is a small sampling of what I see from the air, month after month.

Dredge Pipelines Blocking River

Dredge lines block river at Hallett truck crossing.
Dredge lines blocking river at Hanson Aggregates on West Fork in Conroe.

Vehicles Driving Through River

Truck crossing water at Hallett Mine.
Vehicle about to cross river toward Hanson Aggregates Mine on West Fork

Breaches Dump Wastewater into Drinking Water

Breach at Triple PG mine into Caney Creek that was left open for months, now subject of a lawsuit by the Attorney General.
Another breach left open for months at same mine.
Breach into West Fork at Hallett Mine. Hallett says this was their stormwater outfall. It was open for years, but is now closed.
Plugged breach at Hanson Aggregates on West Fork
Often mines don’t breach directly into a river where it would be obvious. Here, the LMI River Bend mine drains onto adjacent properties which then drain to the West Fork.
Same area as above but closer to breach.

Abandoned Without Reclamation

Equipment abandoned in floodway at abandoned West Fork mine. Note oily scum on water.
Another abandoned River Aggregates mine perpetually leaks turbid water into West Fork. Even though mine is not active, an adjacent Hallett pit often leaks into this one and causes it to overflow.

Pumping Wastewater to River and Adjoining Properties

Triple PG mine pumped wastewater over its dike onto adjoining properties while operating under an injunction. Note how water is higher outside the mine (strip of trees in middle of image) than inside.
Note pipe in dike at Hanson Aggregates mine at allows water to drain out into ditch that runs to river.
Pumping water over the dike at LMI’s Moorehead mine.
Pumping wastewater into West Fork at Hallett Mine
At site of former breach, note how pipes now carry wastewater to West Fork from Hallett Mine. Water experts say that intense blue color is either cyanobacteria or extremely high chloride content in water.

River Mining Without Permit

River mining without permit at Spring Wet Sand and Gravel on West Fork.

Effect on Water Quality

Looking north at confluence of West Fork (top) and Spring Creek by US59. West Fork usually runs murkier than Spring Creek right. Almost all area sand mines are on West Fork.
Same confluence as above but looking west. 56,000,000 gallons of white goop from Liberty Mine breach turned West Fork (right) white.

Contributing to Blockages and Flooding

Rivers transport sand and sediment naturally. But with 20 square miles of sand mines built in the floodway of the West Fork upstream from the Lake Houston Area, miners have increased the potential for erosion 33x compared to the average width of the river. The pictures below, taken shortly after Harvey, show the results.

A six foot high dune not present before Harvey occluded the West Fork by 90% according to the US Army Corps of Engineers. More than 600 homes and hundreds of businesses flooded upstream from this blockage.
West fork San Jacinto Mouth Bar after Harvey. Thousands of homes upstream from this blockage flooded during Harvey. It’s costing taxpayers more than $100 million to remove such blockages.

Please share this post with friends and family. It’s time to start getting ready for the next legislative session.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2020

1005 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

SJRA Resumes Seasonal Release 3 Days Before Scheduled End

For the record, this morning, the SJRA resumed lowering Lake Conroe just three days before the scheduled end of its Spring seasonal release. As of 1PM, the SJRA is releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Recent rains raised the lake level more than a half foot from the target of 200 feet to 200.53 feet.

Source SJRA.net as of approximately 11 a.m. on May 29, 2020.

SJRA Coordinated with CoH

The lake had risen to approximately 200.4 feet for the last two weeks of May. And, when heavy rains entered the forecast, readers began to ask whether SJRA would lower it to 200 again. However, SJRA did not resume lowering at that time.

Reportedly, the City of Houston was worried about overloading Lake Houston at a time when:

  • Dam repairs were in progress
  • Heavy rainfall was in the forecast

So the SJRA held water back.

What 500 CFS looks like. Photographed 7/31/2018, during a tour of the Lake Conroe Dam. The current release is three times this rate.

According to sources, the Coastal Water Authority has opened its gates on Lake Houston and is coordinating release rates with the SJRA so as not to flood downstream residents.

Exact Text of Spring Lake Lowering Policy

For the record, here is the official SJRA lake lowering policy renewed with some modifications after months of divisive debate. Lake Houston residents wanted the extra buffer against flooding. Lake Conroe residents claimed there was no proof it worked. They also claimed that it was lowering their property values and destroying their tax base.

In the Spring, the policy calls for:

“Beginning April 1, release only an amount of water from Lake Conroe to create a one foot capacity to catch rainfall and storm runoff (from 201’ mean sea level to 200’ msl). Recapture of lake level beginning June 1.”

Average Lake Level By Month for 46 Years

Also note that the lake level rarely reaches 201. The average varies each month depending on rainfall and evaporation. So when Lake Conroe reached 200.53, it exceeded the norm.

Lake Conroe seasonal levels by month. Source: SJRA

We need to watch this closely. In 2.5 days, this release should stop until the SJRA resumes seasonal releases on August 1. Please report any flooding through the contact page on this web site.

Text of Fall Policy

The fall seasonal lowering coincides with the peak of hurricane season. The SJRA Fall seasonal lowering policy states:

Beginning August 1, release only an amount of water from Lake Conroe to create a one foot capacity to catch rainfall and storm runoff (from 201’ msl to 200’ msl). After September 1, increase capacity an additional six inches (from 200’ msl to 199.5’ msl). If a named storm is predicted to impact our region, the COH may initiate an additional release of six inches (to 199’ msl) by notifying SJRA in writing of their call for release. Recapture beginning October 1.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/2020

1004 Days after Hurricane Harvey

City of Houston Contractors to Begin East Fork Debris Removal

Disaster Recovery Corporation, a contractor for the City of Houston will soon begin debris removal on the San Jacinto East Fork.

Scope of Work

The scope of this particular phase of debris removal extends from just north of the southern tip of Lake Houston Park to about halfway up the east side of the 5000 acre park. See the start and stop points on the satellite image below.

The City of Houston should begin debris removal on the east side of Lake Houston Park next week.

The distance covered equals 2 miles as crow flies or 3 miles as the fish swims.

Debris Includes…

Here are FEMA guidelines for debris removal. Debris can include trees, sunken boats, old tires, vehicles, and other things washed downstream in floods. It is basically any debris in the water, or below the surface at a depth that is equal to the maximum draft level of the largest vessel that would use the waterway plus 2 feet. Debris also includes trees that are leaning or that pose a threat to public safety.

Beginning First Week in June

Work should start the first week in June. Authorities eventually expect the work to extend up to the Harris County line at FM1485 near the extension of the Grand Parkway.

Debris Removal to Date

Debris removal to date in other places on the East and West Forks and their tributaries has consisted mainly of the removal of downed trees. On Lake Houston, debris removal began almost exactly two years ago.

The trees pose hazards to navigation and can form logjams that back water up in floods, threatening homes and businesses. They also can get hung up on bridge supports and the Lake Houston Dam, threatening infrastructure.

During Harvey, trees swept downstream and caught up in the supports for the Union Pacific and the southbound Highway 59 bridges over the West Fork in Humble. Both bridges had to be replaced. Trees also blocked flow at the FM1960 bridge and the rail bridge in Lake Houston.

Trees enter the waterway when floodwaters undermine river banks or simply rip trees out by their roots.

Downed trees on West Fork after Hurricane Harvey flood. Photo taken September 14, 2017
Dead tree removal on Lake Houston in June 2018.
This pontoon carried dead trees as well as fencing that had been swept into the river. September 2018.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/2020

1004 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 253 since Imelda

Easy Way to Assess Your Flood Potential in Near Real Time

Residents of Harris County and surrounding areas now have and easy way to assess flood potential near them in near real time. It’s called the Harris County Flood Warning System website. It offers near-real-time information from 100+ gages on major streams and rivers throughout the entire region.

Below, you can see part of the welcome screen, zoomed into the North Houston area. It shows the amount of rainfall at each gage.

North Houston rainfall for last 24 hours as of 5/28/2020. Source: Harris County Flood Warning System.

Most of north Harris County received less than an inch of rainfall yesterday. However, areas to the west, north, and south received up to three inches. Areas upstream from Kingwood received five to six times more rainfall that the Lake Houston Area.

Rainfall patterns like that can lull people into a false sense of security because flooding originates upstream and works its way down.

Given the severity of yesterday’s storms, several people asked last night and this morning, “What is the potential for flooding?” The Harris County Flood Warning System provides answers. Here’s how to use it for maximum effect.

Customized Alerts from Flood Warning System

First, note that The Flood Warning System allows you to create an account and customize alerts. While not necessary, it helps reduce extraneous information in emergencies, so you only receive messages that affect you.

For instance, the San Jacinto West Fork, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek affect those living in the Humble/Kingwood area. All three converge just west of the US59 bridge. So you could sign up for alerts only from gages in those areas.

Data-Driven Mapping System

Note that the Flood Warning System lets you select several map view options to help you understand conditions near you as well as upstream. For instance, if you click “Watersheds” and “Channel Status,” you can see:

  • Which watershed you live in
  • The near-real-time status of gages in that area
  • Where flood danger or possible flooding exists
Harris County Flood Warning System as of 5/28/2020, 11am. With Channel Status and Watershed options selected.

Drilling Down to Areas of Interest

From there, you can click on gages of interest. The green squares indicate “no flooding danger.” The yellow triangles mean “potential danger.” Red means “flooding.”

So, clicking on the yellow triangle by Shenandoah in the Spring Creek Watershed lets me investigate what’s happening at that gage. See below.

Source: Harris County Flood Warning System at 11:13 a.m. on 5/28/2020.

From this information, I can see that the channel is higher than normal, but still well within its banks. The top of bank (TOB) is at 156.26 feet. But the current water level is only at 154.33 feet. More important, I can see from the graph that the water level has peaked and is trending down.

With all other reporting stations in my watershed showing “green,” I can breath easy. Unless we get major rainfall upstream this afternoon. After all, this creek rose 3.5 feet yesterday after receiving about 2 inches of rain upstream. Today, soils are highly saturated and the creek is only about 2 feet from coming out of its banks. Another two inches of rain could cause flooding. (See forecast at bottom of this post.)

Other Valuable Features

Among other features, Harris County’s Flood Warning System offers:

  • Historical data so that you can compare current water level data to past floods that may have threatened your home.
  • Rainfall alarms that tell you when particularly heavy downpours have occurred near you that could trigger street or stream flooding.
  • Inundation mapping that shows the extent of flooding during flood events.
  • Color-coded channel status maps to show you at a glance where streams are flooding
  • Links to weather alerts

All in all, Harris County Flood Control District has built a powerful tool with its Flood Warning System. It’s intuitive, uncluttered and easy to use, giving you the information you need, when you need it, where you need it, in the form you need it.

It’s fun to explore all the options. If it rains again this afternoon, use the opportunity to teach your family how to use it.

With the information on this web site, Lake Houston Area residents who flooded during Harvey could have seen the 80,000 cubic feet per second released from Lake Conroe barreling down the West Fork toward them…despite the breakdown in the emergency warning system. They could have evacuated sooner. They could have saved vehicles, valuables, and in some cases even lives.

Everyone should become familiar with the Flood Warning System, learn how to use it and bookmark it. If I were a science teacher in this area, learning how to use this site would become part of my curriculum.

Unsettled Weather Continues Today

Chances of additional heavy rainfall in the Lake Houston Area are lower today than yesterday. However, potential for scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon remains, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist.

Lindner adds, “…given the developing instability and cold air aloft, large hail and gusty winds are possible. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does have nearly all of the area in a “marginal” risk for severe storms this afternoon with a higher threat to our west across southwest and south central TX.”

It will be hard to predict the exact location of these storms, says Lindner. “We could see some additional very heavy rainfall with the storms this afternoon (1-2 inches) in an hour or less. And while grounds are becoming saturated from all the recent rain, only street flooding is expected.”

“With that said, upper Spring and upper Little Cypress Creeks are elevated and should heavy rains impact NW Harris County, there could be some minor lowland flooding along the headwaters of those channels.”

“Upper level high pressure begins to build into the area Friday and will gain a foothold over the region this weekend into next week. Expect rain chances to taper back to only 10-20%. We can probably cut chances completely by Sunday,” says Lindner.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/2020

1003 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Keep Eyes on the Skies: Severe Storm Warning Through Tonight

My phone has blown up with unexpected severe storm warnings in the last hour. A line of strong thunderstorms is racing toward Southeast Texas and the Houston region.

National Weather Service lists the main threats as:

  • Large hail (golf ball size)
  • Strong winds up to 70 mph
  • Lightening

Protective Actions

For your protection, they advise moving to an interior room on the lowest floor of the building you are in. Put cars in a garage if you can.

People in the affected area are urged to seek shelter immediately in an interior room without windows and on the lowest floor of a building.  People should bring their pets inside and delay travel or outdoor activities until the storm passes.  If travel is unavoidable, reduce your speed to avoid hydroplaning.  Heavy rains may also impact the area and only a few inches of water can float a vehicle.  When you see water covering the road, Turn Around, Don’t Drown®.  

Radar from IAH as of 3:39

The immediate danger as of 3:49 pm is in Waller and Montgomery counties. The watch lasts until 9PM or until cancelled. The NWS cancelled a tornado watch associated with this storm at 3:45 PM.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control meteorologist, predicts, “This should be the final round of weather associated with this slow moving upper level low as high pressure begins to build over the area Friday into the weekend.”

Posted by Bob Rehak based on NWS warning on 5/27/2020 at 3:55 PM

1002 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Development Watch List: Orchard Seeded Ranches From the Air

The Romerica high-rise project near the floodway of the San Jacinto West Fork was reborn recently as Orchard Seeded Ranches. Same property. Same developer. Undisclosed concept as of this date.

When the developer sought approval of their general plan from the City of Houston Planning Commission, the City deferred approval. Instead they asked the developer to consult with the City Engineer and Harris County Flood Control, before coming back to the commission.

Despite the location of the development in the floodplain and floodway of the West Fork, ironically, the City had only procedural comments on the plans. The comments had to do with things like the spacing and labelling of streets. Incredibly, they did not refer to potential flooding or wetlands issues.

Pending Regulation Changes Could Affect Development

However, regulation changes are pending. Harris County has made adoption of its Atlas-14-based stormwater design and floodplain standards a condition of participating in all flood bond projects. Those standards would require elevation of any homes built on the Romerica property. In practical terms, that means building on stilts. And that, in turn, means dollars.

Specifically, the County wants the City to change Article III: Standards for Flood Hazard Reduction in the Houston Code of Ordinances, Chapter 19 Floodplain (September 2018):

  • 19-33(a) Base Flood Elevation Requirements –Must also include a provision that no fill will be allowed to elevate structures proposed for the 100-year floodplain.  These structures must be on open foundations designed by a structural engineer.

Where Property Is

Here’s where the property is. It wraps around the Barrington, which was elevated significantly and still flooded during Harvey. It also wraps around River Grove Park Kingwood Country Club, and Deer Ridge Park.

Purple area represents proposed site of Romerica’s Orchard Seeded Ranches Development.

Large Concentration of Forested Wetlands

All aerial photos below were taken on 5/11/2020.

Looking southeast from the southwest corner of Romerica’s property. Hamblen Road enters the from on the middle right. That’s the San Jacinto West Fork cutting through the top of the frame.
Looking southeast while hovering over Woodland Hills Drive. The northern part of Romerica’s property lies between the front and back nines of the Kingwood Country Club Lake Course. That’s the Barrington on the right.
Those same trees serve as a nesting ground for hundreds of great egrets.
Looking southwest from near the entrance from Barrington. Deer Ridge Park wraps around the water tower.
Looking SE over Woodland Hills and the Barrington entrance. The property contains three artificial lakes, which I believe were excavated to elevate the Barrington. Note how high lake level/water table is. River Grove soccer fields are on right. Look closely and you can also see the Kingwood Diversion Ditch entering the park from the lower right.

From the ground, beneath the dense canopy of trees, you can see palmettos galore. Palmetto plants are an important biologic indicator of wetlands. They only grow where the ground is underwater at least part of the year.

Source: USGS National Wetlands Inventory. Blue areas = lake. Green = Forested Wetlands.

Role of Wetlands in Reducing Flooding

The EPA cites flood protection as one of the primary benefits of wetlands.

“Wetlands function as natural sponges that trap and slowly release surface water, rain, … and flood waters. Trees, root mats and other wetland vegetation also slow the speed of flood waters and distribute them more slowly over the floodplain. This combined water storage an braking action lowers flood heights and reduces erosion,” says the Agency.

They continue: “Wetlands within and downstream of urban areas are particularly valuable, counteracting the greatly increased rate and volume of surface- water runoff from pavement and buildings. The holding capacity of wetlands helps control floods… Preserving and restoring wetlands together with other water retention can often provide the level of flood control otherwise provided by expensive dredge operations and levees. The bottomland hardwood- riparian wetlands along the Mississippi River once stored at least 60 days of floodwater. Now they store only 12 days because most have been filled or drained.”

Reasons Romerica Application Previously Withdrawn

Last year, when Romerica tried to develop this area as condos and high rises, they ran into protests from US Fish and Wildlife Service, the Army Corps, environmental groups, and the Kingwood community. Major concerns included the filling of wetlands, nesting bald eagles, river migration, flood dangers to residents, and lack of evacuation routes.

Fence separating Romerica property from Hamblen road after Harvey.

All those concerns still exist. Romerica should take a cue from the Humble ISD. They’ve had two ag barns in this area. The District abandoned one (that was actually on Romerica property), moved to higher ground, is trying to abandon the second, and hopes to move to higher ground yet again.

As of this writing, Romerica has not yet reapplied to the City Planning Commission. Nor has the City adopted all of the County’s Atlas-14 regulations.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/27/2020

1002 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Update on Woodridge Village Detention Ponds After Recent Heavy Rains

After six months of virtual inactivity, Perry Homes’ new Woodridge Village contractors have significantly stepped up work on three detention ponds. All detention ponds are on the northern section of the development. However, recent heavy rains have saturated the soil. The rain also filled two of the three ponds one-third to one-half full. The result: a big muddy mess.

Tuesday, according to Elm Grove resident Jeff Miller, only one excavator was moving. It was trying to let water out of the N1 pond so that work could continue.

Twelve Aerial Photos Taken on Memorial Day

Below are 12 aerial photos of the site taken on Memorial Day, 5/25/2020.

Looking north along the western boundary of Woodridge at the tail of the N1 Pond.
Further north, you can see where work has stopped on the tail of N1 (foreground), the Webb Street Entrance in Porter (left), and the N1 pond itself are at the top.

The N1 pond has the least development. Most work to date has focused on the tail. That’s presumably so contractors can keep the entrance to the site open. N1 will probably be the last pond they finish. And they will probably complete it only after they develop a second entrance to the site off Ford Road (see below).

Only Work Tuesday Was Trying To Drain N1

Looking south along the western boundary from over N1, you can see where the tail ends. The tiny trench letting water out of the tail slows down water. It will eventually be replaced by the four-foot culverts you see on the left.

That tiny trench is where the excavator was working today.

Site Holds More Water than N2 Detention Pond

Still looking south, but further down the western boundary, we can see the old and new portions of the N2 detention pond. It is not currently holding much water because contractors have already opened up the sides. That allows water to escape into Taylor Gully (top center).

Note how there’s more water on the site than in N2.
Closer shot shows how workers opened up N2 to Taylor Gully (left of top center). They also continue to widen and deepen the pond toward the upper right corner.
Rotating about 90 degrees, we can see how saturated the soil is. The northern portion of the site contains an amazing amount of standing water that isn’t yet able to reach the detention ponds.

The northern portion of the site is roughly 200 acres. Assuming an average of three inches of standing water (one quarter foot), that means the northern portion may contain 50 acre-feet of standing water!

Taylor Gully Did Not Appear to Overflow

Looking southeast at North Kingwood Forest (left) and Elm Grove Village (right), areas where hundreds of homes flooded twice last year.
A closer shot shows where water in Taylor Gully, when high, is forced to make multiple turns within a few hundred yards to bypass a 3 foot pipe that connects the channel on either side of the county line. Luckily, water did not reach the overflow spillway from the concrete-lined channel during recent heavy rains, according to Jeff Miller.

N3 Pond Greatly Reduced Flow in Taylor Gully

The pond below (N3) sits directly above the portion of Taylor Gully that flooded Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest twice last year. The vast majority of this excavation took place earlier this month.

Rotating to the northeast, you can see the N3 detention pond, now mostly excavated. Miller estimates it’s still one half to one third full.
Traveling up the eastern side of Woodridge, we can see tremendous erosion along the banks of N3. Those parallel stripes running down the sides of the pond are called rilling, shallow channels cut in the surface of soil by running water.

Simply Excavating Ponds Does Not Mean They Are Complete

Above, you can see that contractors did not yet have backslope interceptor swales in place. Nor did they have the pipes installed to channel intercepted runoff to the detention pond. Accordingly, runoff went over the edges of the pond and washed sediment into it.

The ponds will not be complete until backslope interceptor swales and pipes have been installed and grass planted along the edges of the ponds to prevent future rilling. The ponds also need concrete pilot channels to prevent erosion in the areas of constant use.

New Entrance on East

The new entrance to the subdivision (background below) will be an extension of Mace Street in Porter on the West. It will connect to Ford Road on the East.

Looking straight east from the top of N3. Note two things: a channel designed to funnel standing water to N3 and the new entrance to the subdivision cut into the woods in the distance.

Mace enters the western side of the subdivision just to the left of that silver roof in the distance of the shot below.

Looking directly west across Woodridge Village while hovering over N3 on the eastern border.

Why You Don’t Build On Wetlands

The last image above shows why you don’t buy homes built over wetlands, even if the Army Corps ruled that the wetlands weren’t jurisdictional. Any homes built here would likely have foundation problems from shifting soils. Of course, by then, the builder would be long gone.

In reviewing the complaints lodged with the Better Business Bureau against Perry Homes, most of them had to do with failure to honor warranties. Digging deeper, you can see many of the underlying complaints had to do with drainage, flooding, mold, and mildew.

There may be a connection between the type of property Perry develops and the problems that customers later develop. If Perry builds on this property, I pity any poor unsuspecting customers who fail to research its history.

No New Statements on Potential County Buyout

To my knowledge, neither Harris County, the City of Houston, nor Perry Homes have issued any public statements about the status of a buyout of this property. Harris County Flood Control District was considering using it to build a regional flood-detention facility. But County Commissioners added new conditions on any buyout in their last meeting.

Twice-flooded residents in Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest eagerly await new details on the deal. Even if Perry completes work on all the ponds, it will likely not be enough to handle a true hundred-year rainfall event.

Ponds Still Would Not Likely Detain Hundred-Year Rain

Perry rushed to get plans permitted before new Atlas-14 rainfall standards went into effect. They would have required 30% to 40% more detention than the plans that the City and Montgomery County approved.

In the meantime, though, the new detention ponds will greatly reduce the risk of flooding from lesser storms. Also, the National Weather Service has reduced the risk of rain in the next several days. That may give Woodridge Village time to dry out and downstream residents time to catch up on their sleep.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/27/2020 with reporting from Jeff Miller

1002 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Union Pacific Traffic Over San Jacinto West Fork Now Fully Back and Better

On my most recent flight down the San Jacinto West Fork, I was treated to a rare experience. Just as we flew over US59 heading east, what seemed like a mile-long train started to cross the new Union Pacific rail bridge. As we crossed over the train, the engineer saw me leaning out the door of the helicopter to grab the perfect shot. I think he knew we were documenting progress of the bridge. In salute, or maybe out of pride, he let out a massive blast from his giant air horn. Both the helicopter pilot and I broke out into huge smiles.

A Stirring Moment

It was a stirring moment for someone who has always admired trains. Railroads opened up this country, supported the growth of our cities, and still carry the much of the commerce of our nation on the backs of their rails.

Harvey destroyed the ancient Union Pacific bridge over the West Fork.

Shot taken on March 3, 2018, approximately six months after Harvey. Repairs on the old bridge were still in progress at that point.

But now UP is back. Bigger and better than ever. The sleek new bridge sports wider supports, designed to let fallen trees pass through in the next flood. That should eliminate backwater effects caused by logjams. Compare the “after” shot below.

May 11, 2020. The new UP bridge has wider supports to eliminate logjams in floods.

A Three-Year Project

The construction of the new bridge took almost three years.

  • First UP had to restore the old bridge to keep traffic flowing.
  • Then the company had to build a new bridge between the supports of the old bridge.
  • Finally, once the new supports were in, they had to remove the old ones.

All of that took a little less than a thousand days. And it was fascinating to watch. The result is a tribute to the genius of American engineering and know-how.

Second Major Mitigation Project to Be Completed in Area

This marks the completion of second major flood mitigation project in the Lake Houston Area. The first was TxD0T’s reconstruction of the US59/I69 bridge a few hundred yards to the west. That delayed hundreds of thousands of commuters for 11 months.

The train stretched almost a mile toward Kingwood Drive as it barreled southward. Hopefully, the new bridge may also help reduce train delays at major intersections.

Other Mitigation Projects Still in Development or Being Studied

Other major mitigation projects still in progress or development include:

  • West Fork dredging to restore conveyance and channel of the river
  • Additional floodgates for the Lake Houston Dam, to let water out faster
  • The search for suitable upstream detention to help hold back water during floods
  • Multiple ditch repairs throughout the area
  • Drainage studies throughout the San Jacinto River Basin that will undoubtedly lead to additional mitigation projects

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/26/2020 with gratitude to the men and women of Union Pacific

1001 Days after Hurricane Harvey