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Cleanup of Forest Cove Oil Wells, Tanks Scheduled for Fall

Within the Forest Cove Townhome complex, currently being bought out by Harris County Flood Control, two wells, and three oil and gas storage tanks have been abandoned. The operator, Noxxe Oil and Gas, LLC went out of business in February this year for failure to pay franchise taxes. At least one of the wells has a history of a recent leak that affected the West Fork San Jacinto. The tanks sit rusting and leaning at odd angles. And the pipes connecting them are broken and twisted.

The Texas Railroad Commission has investigated the site numerous times since Harvey and required cleanup and remediation by the operator until the company went out of business.

Because the operator is now defunct, the Railroad Commission plans to step in and complete the cleanup process once additional funds become available in the next fiscal year starting September 2020.

According to Harris County Flood Control, the Railroad Commission does not believe there is an imminent danger at this time from the existing tank battery and facilities.

However, the Commission says it will likely be an expensive cleanup. At public expense.

Old Oil Field, Old Equipment

These tanks and wells represent a common problem around Lake Houston and the old Humble Oil Field. The Humble field was discovered in 1905 and, to date, has yielded more than 150 million barrels of oil.

However, as fields and wells near the end of their producing life, the economics of production become marginal. Near the end, stripper wells may produce only 10-15 barrels per day – or less. Only operators on shoestring budgets can afford to keep such wells producing at that point. They become hand-me-down wells from operators with deep pockets and big costs to smaller companies with less capital and lower costs.

In theory, that’s how to maximize recovery from a well. However, when problems develop, the smaller companies are sometimes ill-equipped to handle them.

Noxxe Problems Started Early and Persisted

Shortly after incorporation in 2009, Noxxe ran into legal troubles when the company’s own lawyers sued it for non-payment. Noxxe lost the case. Then Noxxe appealed, but the company’s owner failed to appear for a deposition. Eventually, Noxxe’s appeal was denied because it failed to pay court costs.

Other Noxxe problems blew up into headlines after the Memorial Day flood in 2016 when oil slicks were photographed floating from its storage tanks. Another problem surfaced in 2017 when a pipeline from one of their wells on Marina Drive started leaking into the West Fork.

Texas Railroad Commission (TRRC) regulates oil and gas production. Its documents show that Noxxe ignored state regulators on more than one occasion.

The company’s problems with TRRC became visible on April 4, 2017. The Railroad Commission ordered certificates of compliance for the operator cancelled and all pipeline/carrier connections severed.

Then, during Harvey, Noxxe’s operations near the Forest Cove Townhomes and elsewhere on the West Fork became inundated. Again!

*Noxxe tanks under water during Harvey in 2017 amidst the Forest Cove Townhomes.*

One month after Harvey, Steve Shaffer, the company’s president, took over as his own registered agent.

Days after that, Noxxe moved from 324 Forest Cove Drive to 1120 NASA Parkway.

On October 16, 2018, the Railroad Commission found that Noxxe failed to appear or respond to charges which included:

Unpermitted discharges of oil and gas waste
Uncontrolled wells left open to the atmosphere
Spills from flow lines that impacted surface waters
Unreported discharges and spills
Fire hazards
Improper construction of a firewall around a tank battery
Failing to take protective measures re: open-top tanks, skimming pits and collecting pits

Finally, on February 28, 2020, the company forfeited its right to do business in Texas for failure to pay franchise taxes. (However, it still has until this June 28th to get its accounts in order and have its charter reinstated.)

Part of Noxxe’s Legacy in Forest Cove

These pictures below show part of the legacy Noxxe left behind.

*Some of the equipment left behind by Noxxe in Forest Cove: tanks and pump-jacks.*

*This tank seems to lean at about a ten degree angle.*

*The plumbing connecting the tanks is disconnected and in disarray.*

*Tanks are rusted, dented, overgrown and covered with graffiti.*

The collapse of oil prices in response to COVID restrictions earlier this year hurt small producers more than large ones. It will be interesting to see how many other stories like this emerge in coming days.

Where to Report Similar Problems

While the abandoned equipment shown above may not represent an imminent threat, it still represents a threat that must be remediated by the state. It is adjacent to the drinking water supply for 2 million people and subject to frequent flooding. Jennifer Parks who used to live in one of the townhomes on Timberline Drive flooded eight times in five years.

If you see similar problems, reach out to the local office of the TRRC at 713-869-5001.

Posted by Bob Rehak on June 6, 2020

1012 Days After Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Kingwood Storm Line Inspections Complete

Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin announced today that the City of Houston has completed Kingwood Storm Line Inspections. Only a few spots needed debris removal. The rest were clear, according to Martin.

*City storm line inspection in May 2019 with Elm Grove flood-victim Keith Jennings looking on.*

30 Miles of Stormwater Drains Now Clear

When the City encountered debris, crews removed it with specialized equipment and personnel trained to work in confined spaces, says Martin. Public Works inspected approximately 150,000 linear feet or about 30 miles of storm water lines.

Subdivisions Inspected

The communities inspected include:

Elm Grove
Hunter’s Ridge
North & South Woodland Hills
Bear Branch
Forest Cove
Greentree Village
Kings Crossing
Kings Forest
Kings Point
Kingwood Lakes
Kingwood Place Village
Lakeshore
Magnolia Point (Huffman)
Mills Branch
North Kingwood Forest
Riverchase
Sand Creek Village
Sherwood Trails
Woodspring Village
Woodstream Village
Trailwood Village.

Public Works inspected Kingwood villages impacted by Tropical Storm Imelda and others based on the number of reports made to 3-1-1.

Storm Drain Photos Available for Inspection

Martin has posted every community’s storm-line inspection photos in his Facebook Photo Albums.

How and Why to Report Storm Line Problems

It is critically important that if you identify areas with drainage issues that you report them to 3-1-1.

The City determines larger drainage (or other infrastructure) projects from 3-1-1 reports. The more calls about an issue, the higher the project’s priority.

Join Adopt-A-Drain Program

Martin encourages neighborhoods to Adopt-A-Drain. He gave a shout out to those who have already adopted and named their drains in the Kingwood Area. They include: Big Bertha, Maleficent, Shrader’s Drain, A1 Signs, Lil Bandingo’s Drain, Botta Boom Drain and many more!

“Residents, businesses, and community groups can take advantage of lots of drains and naming opportunities while helping decrease debris in our drainage system,” said Martin.

Other Ways to Help Ensure Free-Flowing Storm Lines

Here’s how residents can help:

Make sure trash cans don’t tip before they are picked up
Ensure yard clippings and leaves stay out of gutters
Make sure yard crews don’t blow clippings down storm drains
Clear gutters before bad weather
Never throw trash or other items down drains or inlets.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/5/2020

1011 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 260 since Imelda

HCFCD Begins Kingwood Diversion Ditch Repairs

Last week, while driving through Forest Cove, I noticed construction activity and Harris County Flood Control District signs at the Kingwood Diversion Ditch near Walnut Lane. The area downstream from the bridge has some of the worst erosion of any ditch in Kingwood.

Area Now Under Repair As It Looked in 2009

*Kingwood Diversion Ditch in 2009. Looking south from Walnut Lane. Forest Cove on right.*

Erosion was bad for years and only got worse during major storms in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Massive slabs of the banks broke off in chunks, threatening trails and adjacent homes.

Since the picture above in 2009, the ditch has eroded both down and outward to increase its conveyance as new subdivisions upstream scabbed off of Kingwood’s infrastructure.

Pictures of Work in Progress Today

Oh, what a difference a decade makes! Note the exposed storm drains in the pictures below that you cannot see in the picture above.

*Looking south from Walnut Lane Bridge.* *Exposed, elevated and crushed storm drains due to erosion.*

The erosion left storm drains elevated and exposed to the ravages of floodwaters. Some were crushed, causing water to back up into streets and drainage ditches during heavy rains.

*The area that collapsed circa 2009 above is the same area shown under construction today.*

The velocity of water through this ditch during floods has earned it the nickname “Kingwood Rapids” from white-water enthusiasts.

*Storm drains left exposed and elevated as the ditch widened and deepened itself to accommodate upstream development such as Woodridge Forest.*

*HCFCD works to restore and stabilize banks, and repair damaged storm drains.*

*Crumpled drains being removed by excavator.*

How the Diversion Ditch Got Its Name

The Kingwood Diversion Ditch got its name when Friendswood realized that Ben’s Branch could not hold all the water being brought to it by adjacent subdivisions.

So Friendswood literally built a ditch that diverts a portion of the water coming down Ben’s Branch from Montgomery County just above Northpark Drive.

*The point of diversion. Believe it or not, that’s Ben’s Branch flowing from bottom to top.* *As Ben’s Branch squeezes down, it forces water into the diversion ditch, which splits off to the right*, *just south of the new St. Martha’s Catholic Church.*

*From there, the ditch goes under Northpark Drive, past Woodland Hills, and south to the river.*

Luckily, Friendswood designed the bridges over the Diversion Ditch to accommodate expansion of the ditch. HCFCD is studying that possibility now as part of the Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis. Results of the study should be published this fall.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/5/2020

1011 Days after Harvey

Cristobal Likely to Reach U.S. Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday

The latest report from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 10 a.m. 6/4/2020 indicates that Tropical Storm Cristobal has moved inland in southern Mexico and has weakened to a tropical depression. All coastal watches and warnings in Mexico have been lifted. Maximum sustained winds are now at 35 mph with higher gusts. However, the NHC also predicts that the storm will move back over water by Friday afternoon and then re-intensify into a tropical storm as it moves north into the central Gulf Saturday and Sunday.

Arrival time along the U.S. Gulf Coast should be sometime Sunday evening, according to current predictions.

Impacts to U.S.

Strong winds and high seas are expected east of the storm center.

Risks to the US mainland include storm surge, heavy rainfall, and high winds beginning this weekend from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.

NHC emphasizes that it is still to soon to determine the exact location, timing and magnitude of these impacts. The best plan: monitor progress of the storm and make sure you are prepared.

Houston Likely To Be On Clean Side

Current projections take the storm up Central Louisiana. So Houston will likely be on the “clean” side of the storm. Because rotation around a low is counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere, the storm is likely to dump the most rain east of the center.

*5-day forecast as of 10 a.m. CDT on Thursday from NHC*. *Note how cone has shifted east of Galveston Bay.*

10% Chance of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds in Houston

Forecasters currently give Houston a 10% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds.

*However, Houston still has a 10% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds because of the width of the storm.*

Arrival of Winds Saturday Night into Sunday Morning

Earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds will likely be Saturday night into Sunday morning.

*Winds should arrive Saturday night or Sunday.*

Impacts Far Wider than Cone of Uncertainty

Storm impacts can be felt far beyond the center of the storm as the satellite image below shows. Heavy rainfall will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.

Tropical storm and storm-surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday.

*As you prepare for Cristobal, remember how wide the feeder bands are.*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/4/2020

1010 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 259 after Imelda

Woodridge Village Pre-Cristobal Detention Pond Update

Perry Home’s new contractors have excavated the vast majority of virtually all three detention ponds on the north section of Woodridge Village. That means they have almost completed 77% of the detention pond capacity for the whole site in two months. The previous contractors completed only 23% in approximately twenty months.

That represents approximately a 30x increase in productivity.

Overview of Woodridge Village Detention Pond Capacity

The pie chart below shows how that capacity breaks down. And the map shows where it is.

*Percentage of detention pond capacity in acre feet for each of the five Woodridge Village ponds.* *Source: LJA Drainage Addendum.*

*General layout of detention ponds on Perry Homes’ property.*

Contractors Scurry as Cristobal Churns in Gulf

Tropical Storm Cristobal could be a game changer next week if it hits Houston. It’s track is far from certain at this point, but the National Hurricane Center still puts Houston within the cone of uncertainty.

Cristobal has the potential to create massive erosion and set the work schedule back. The aerial photos below taken on 6/2/2020 show the current “pre-storm” status of construction for the three northern detention ponds. The two southern detention ponds were completed earlier this year.

N1 Nearing Completion of Excavation

N1 Starts at the northern boundary of the site and runs halfway down the western edge to Mace Street.

*Looking north at N1 from Mace Street in Porter to the northern boundary.*

*The area between the culverts will eventually become an extension of Mace Street (top of photo) which will traverse the entire subdivision to Ford Road on the eastern side.*

*While some contractors continue excavating, others work on installing concrete pilot channels. Shown here, the pilot channel near Ivy Ridge in Porter.*

*The northern part of N1 is not yet complete. Contractors still use the Webb Street entrance (upper left as their main access point to the site.* *Note how height of road dwarfs excavator in pit.*

Still Widening and Deepening N2 Pond

The area left of the diagonal road is the expansion of N2. The area near the diagonal embankment is deep enough to conceal trucks and excavators. However, the grassy triangle in the middle left was a previous detention pond constructed my Montgomery County in the early 2000s.

*Contractors are deepening the MoCo pond a small amount to create additional storage capacity.* *The dirt is being used to build up other portions of the site.*

Looking north along the western boundary from the southern part of the grassy triangle. Much work remains to extend the N1 channel south to N2. Jeff Miller reported today that contractors started working on this *this morning.*

*On 6.3.20, contractors were removing dirt from the northward extention of N2 with three dump trucks running in a relay fashion. Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller.*

*Twin culverts installed in Taylor Gully will control outflow rates from N1 and N2*.

N3 All Excavated

N3 cuts down the eastern side of Woodridge Village and joins Taylor Gully right above S2.

*Looking north. Excavation of N3 appears complete although few of the finishing touches have yet been installed.*

*N3 widens out about halfway down the eastern border.*

Then it narrows down again *to help control outflow speed* *as it approaches the junction with Taylor Gully.*

Water from the entire site converges here. Erosion patterns, fence damage and grass matting show this is where the overflow started that contributed to the flooding of Elm Grove (right) and North Kingwood Forest (left) twice last year.

The pile of dirt in the picture above could be shoved into the connecting channel in the event that Cristobal should strike Houston. That would then help retain water in N3 until after the storm.

All the runoff from the approximately 200-acre northern portion of the site converges here and tries to make its way through a 3-foot culvert at the end of the concrete channel.

Uncertain Still Surrounds Corner of Chaos

Some Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest residents have called the complex flow patterns in the photo above “The Corner of Chaos.”

Overflow from the concrete lined channel is supposed to go into the kite-shaped S2 pond, and then through the twin culverts into Taylor Gully. However, a hydrology consultant for the plaintiffs in flooding lawsuits contends that floodwaters went the other way. They escaped out of the inflow channel, he says. He further claims that LJA Engineering failed to model the performance of that connecting channel.

If the design of the flow at this “Corner of Chaos” is flawed, there’s little contractors can do to fix that at this point without some major re-engineering.

In that regard, we should also remember that LJA designed these ponds before Atlas 14, so they will only hold approximately 60% of a 100-year rainfall as defined by Atlas 14 standards adopted in Harris County.

How Contractors are Temporarily Funneling Water into Ponds

Because storm drains are not yet installed, contractors are relying on temporary channels to intercept runoff and direct it to detention ponds.

*Small ditches like one on right catch runoff and direct it to ponds for the time being.*

Next Steps in Completing Detention Ponds

A modest amount of excavation remains to complete the full detention pond capacity.

But the capacity already in place should reduce flood risk compared to last year by more than 3X for storms equivalent to May 7 and September 19, 2019.

As some crews focus on completing excavation, others are putting the finishing touches on ponds. Those include concrete pilot channels, backslope interceptor swales, drain pipes, and culverts to control the rate of outflow.

Racing Against Hurricane Season

At this point, contractors are racing against time and the hurricane season. Cristobal underscores the risk of having waited for months to begin the three northern detention ponds in April. Had they begun them immediately after J. Carey Gray’s letter to Mayor Turn in October, they could easily have finished by now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/4/2020 with thanks to Jeff Miller

1010 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 258 since Imelda

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

NHC Predicts Christobal to Hit Louisiana by Sunday Morning, Houston Still Within Cone

Cristobal should approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The latest predictions from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggest it should reach Louisiana Sunday morning by 8 a.m. Houston remains within the cone of uncertainty. The storm has already dumped torrential rains on Mexico and Central America and produced life-threatening flash flooding.

*NHC forecast track of TS Christobal shows the center of the storm arriving in Louisiana sometime between Sunday and Monday.*

No one is yet predicting the exact point of impact, the intensity at landfall, or the potential rainfall. Note, however, that the storm is significantly bigger than the center. Areas far away from the track may still experience significant impacts.

So far, this storm appears to be Mexico’s and Central America’s version of Harvey in that it has stalled in one location and dropped heavy rainfall for 4-5 days.

Current Location and Conditions

Here’s what’s happening at this hour.

Cristobal dipped inland this morning in the Mexican State of Campeche around around 8 a.m. CDT. Aircraft and surface reports indicate intensity at about 50 kt. (57.5 mph).

Now that the center of circulation has moved inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. The NHC anticipates Cristobal will weaken to a topical depression by tomorrow evening. However, they also predict the system will re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.

Sheer Expected in Northern Gulf

NHC says global models show increased southwesterly shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this should limit intensification. However, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.

Impacts to Date

Damaging and deadly flooding has occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Up to 35 inches of rain has already fallen in some locations since May 30.

Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.

Rainfall in Mexico and Central America Through Friday

NHC predicts Cristobal will produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Mexican state of southern Chiapas…15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca…5 to 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala…Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador…Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Belize and Honduras…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Threat to U.S. by Sunday

NHC forecasts Cristobal to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night.

Christobal should then move northward over the central and northern Gulf over the weekend. Risks to the US Gulf coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle include storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning this weekend.

While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, people and businesses in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

*Earliest Arrival Times of Tropical Storm Force Winds. NHC prediction as of 6/3/2020 at 10AM CDT.*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/3/2020 at 11:30 a.m.

1009 days after Hurricane Harvey

Buzzing The Mouth Bar: Low Altitude Flyover at 30 MPH Takes 1 Minute 9 Seconds

It’s hard to get a feeling for the enormity of the West Fork mouth bar in a still photo. Something more than half a mile long is reduced to 1200 pixels. That fundamentally alters the scale between nature and humans. Instead of being a thousand times bigger, it’s a hundred times smaller. That does not produce the same emotional impact. It’s like looking at a picture of a mountain instead of standing at the base of one and feeling dwarfed as you look up.

Video Comes Closer to Capturing Imensity

However, tonight, at sunset, I flew a drone over mouth bar and captured the entire flight on video. At 30 miles per hour, it took 1 minute and 9 seconds to get from one end to the other.

The rapidly vanishing San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar. Mechanical dredging reduces the size a little more every day.

*Looking south from Scenic Shores in King’s Point across mouth bar toward FM1960 Causeway downriver.*

*Looking west toward West Lake Houston Parkway.*

*Excavators working western tip of mouth bar. They shaver one row after another off, as if they are nibbling an ear of corn.*

*From the upstream to downstream tip measures more than half a mile.*

*At the eastern end, it almost look as if a bored dredging is carving his initials in the bar so that they can be seen from outer space.*

*Looking south across the eastern edge toward the FM1960 bridge again.*

Tonight, as we watch Tropical Storm Cristobal dump torrential rains on Mexico, it’s hard to escape thinking of Hurricane Harvey. It dumped torrential rains on Houston and formed this monster mouth bar almost overnight. Remember, like an ice berg, the part you see above water is only a tiny percentage of what you can’t see below water.

Thinking of Cristobal, Remembering Harvey

As I look at the cloudless skies and soft sunset, I can’t help but wonder. Will Cristobal miss us. Or is this just the calm before the storm?

Cristobal has produced life-threatening flash flooding in Mexico and Central America. The National Hurricane Center forecasts it to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Risks include storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts this coming weekend across the US Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. NHC reiterates that it’s too soon predict the exact location, timing and magnitude of these impacts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/3/2020

1009 Days since Hurricane Harvey

AlertHouston Urges Public to Report Suspicious Piles of Bricks, Rocks

AlertHouston has just issued a plea to the public to report suspicious piles of rocks and bricks.

Houston Public Works has already removed several piles of bricks and rocks from several locations in Houston this afternoon. The bricks and rocks may be intended to cause physical harm or destruction during demonstrations.

Please call 311 (or the Houston Police Department non-emergency line, 713.884.3131), to report any suspicious activity or if you see someone leaving these items in the community.

HPW will dispatch a crew to immediately remove these and other items that may be used to threaten the safety and security of the citizens of Houston.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/2020

1008 Days after Hurricane Harvey

TD 3 Close to Tropical Storm Strength; Dumping Torrential Rains Over Mexico, Central America

Confidence is increasing that a tropical system will be moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. It will threaten some portions of the US Gulf coast. However, the National Hurricane Center advises that it’s still too early to pinpoint where the greatest impacts may be.

Harris County Flood Control Meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the Gulf coast to fully stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to enact. “By Sunday morning, it is likely there will be a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico,” he says.

*Source: NHC. Indicates conditions as of 10a.m. CDT on 6/2/2020.*

At This Moment…

Slow-moving Tropical Depression Three (TD 3) is still in the Bay of Campeche and:

CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

Summary of Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next within 24 to 36 hours.

Current Location and Conditions

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The depression is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday.

NHC forecasts the center of the cyclone to remain near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.

USAF plane recorded flight-level winds of 44 kts.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

TD 3 A Rainmaker

NHC expects TD 3 to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.

The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.

Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Wind Probabilities

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight.

*Source: NOAA. Probably Tracking of TD 3 and earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds.*

It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant. A chance exists that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property.

Key Takeaways

Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season.

Houston Forecast For the Week

Today, mostly sunny with light winds. Expect similar conditions on Wednesday, with the possibility of scattered showers and highs of around 90 degrees.

The second half of the week will see warmer weather as high pressure continues to build over the area. We are likely to see high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Mostly sunny skies and only slight rain chances during the afternoon hours. Nights will be warm and muggy, in the 70s.

The location of a high pressure system to our north late in the week will likely determine the track of TD 3. Monitor forecasts closely.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/2020

1008 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Gulf

For the last two days, the National Hurricane Center has upped the chances of a tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico this week. This afternoon, the chances went from 80% to 90% at 1 pm CDT. Now, at 5:30, Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist is saying, TD 3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Surface observations and visible satellite images indicate that remains of Pacific TS Amanda have now moved over the Bay of Campeche and a low level circulation has become re-established.

Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.
National Hurricane Center

Further Development Expected in Next 24 Hours

The disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development. The NHC says a tropical depression or storm will likely form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.

NHC says the system could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Mexico and Central America this week.

A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for the coast of Mexico.

Longer Range Outlook Cloudier

NHC forecasts the system to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week after wandering around in the Bay of Campeche. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the US Gulf Coast.

The Center still lists the chances of tropical storm formation at 90 percent. Satellite images already show the beginning of rotation.

Conditions are favorable for some slow increase in strength as the surface circulation moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Upper level winds within a large area of deep tropical moisture suggest TD 3 will likely become a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. A USAF mission is planned for Tuesday to determine the organization and intensity of the system. After 24 hours much of the intensity forecast will be driven by how much the center interacts with the landmass of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Likely with Winds Up To 60 MPH

The official forecast brings TD 3 to a 60mph tropical storm as it begins to eject NNE into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes to the forecast track and intensity will be possible with this system over the next several days.

Separately, NOAA has issued a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

What a day for the start of hurricane season! People along the US Gulf coast should review hurricane preparation plans and make sure hurricane supply kits are fully stocked and check weather forecasts at least once a day this week.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 5:30 pm

1007 Days since Hurricane Harvey