Tag Archive for: Scarborough

Flooding is Predictable, Flood Disasters are Optional

10/4/26 – Floods have happened throughout history and will continue to happen. We cannot control the weather. We can, however, control whether we put people in harm’s way. Flood disasters are optional.

The 5300-acre Scarborough property at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork, Spring Creek, and Cypress Creek is one of the most flood-prone properties in the Houston region. The developer hopes to build up to 7,000 homes there.

Ryko, Scarborough Flood risk
Approximate outlines of Scarborough property shown in FEMA Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Cross-hatch=floodway, aqua=1% annual chance floodplain, brown=.02% annual chance floodplain.

Only tiny portions of the Scarborough property lie above floodplains and floodways. And the lowest portions go under 25-30 feet of water during large floods.

From FEMA Base Flood Elevation Viewer. Point sampled was near confluence of West Fork/Spring Creek.

Scarborough Property Makes Excellent Candidate for Conservation

That’s why this property, makes a perfect candidate for conservation, much like Lake Houston Park did iin the East Fork Watershed during the early 1980s.

In its September 2026 meeting, the San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group (SJRFPG) identified gaps in current regulations and legislation. It also laid out proposals to plug those gaps. In my previous post, I used the Scarborough property to dramatize the importance of three of those recommendations. They concerned building codes, elevations, and overlapping jurisdictions.

This post will discuss how three more of the SJRFPG recommendations apply to the Scarborough property. They concern:

  • Legislative incentives for conservation easements, land conservation, restoration, riparian protection, wetland protection, and landowner stewardship practices in flood-prone areas
  • Regulatory changes that promote nature-based solutions, green infrastructure, floodplain preservation, conservation, and hybrid gray/green approaches
  • Promoting public education and outreach regarding flood awareness, preparedness, flood-prone areas, and the importance of protecting floodplains.

State Park Needed

A Scarborough subsidiary called the San Jacinto Preserve actually owns the land, which Scarborough bought from Ryko in 2025. It is a haven for wildlife, including bald eagles. Currently, the Bayou Land Conservancy manages a small conservation easement on several sensitive areas within the property.

File photo. Bald eagle in flight over West Fork near Scarborough property

In my opinion, Texas Parks and Wildlife needs to step up and turn the land into another state park. That would prevent homes from being built on the property and flooding. It would also prevent an increase in flood risk to homes downstream. One of the region’s leading hydrologists has said that if this property gets developed, it would be like aiming a fire hose at the Kingwood/Humble area.

Floodplain encroachment increases the chances of future man-made disasters. And mitigating those disasters typically costs far fewer tax dollars than simply conserving flood-prone property in the first place. Plus, dozens of studies have shown that proximity to parks increases surrounding home values as much as 20% and provides healthy, recreational opportunities for everyone.

The Houston City Council, Harris County Commissioners Court, the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force, Bayou Land Conservancy and nearly 10,000 surrounding residents have all protested the development of this land.

If you haven’t yet signed the petition against the Scarborough Development, please sign it today.

Scarborough Wetlands
Wetlands on Scarborough property

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/4/2026

3323 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Scarborough Illustrates Value of Flood-Planning Group’s Recommendations

10/2/26 – At least one in five Texans currently live in floodplains. And the percentage is probably higher than that given how sporadically floodplain maps get updated. Against that backdrop, San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group (SJRFPG) has proposed 36 recommendations for the next State Flood Plan to improve our safety.

The recommendations plug gaps in legislation and regulations. They aren’t just words on paper. During the next big flood, they could mean the difference between staying dry or getting water in your house. In extreme cases, they could even make the difference between life and death.

To help dramatize the importance of these regulations, I’d like to present some real world examples in a series of posts. I’ll start with the 5300-acre proposed Scarborough development upstream from Lake Houston. It involves at least 14 of the proposed recommendations.

The Scarborough Example

One of the region’s leading hydrologists has said, “If that property gets developed, it will be like aiming a firehose at Kingwood and Humble.”

Houston City Council unanimously passed a resolution against the development. So did Harris County Commissioners Court. A Montgomery County Engineer warned of the dangers. Almost 10,000 neighbors have signed a protest petition. But Montgomery County Commissioners have yet to take a position. And the Texas General Land Office, which is responsible for managing $14 billion of federal flood mitigation dollars in Texas is backing the development, reportedly investing as much as $140 million according to State Representative Steve Toth.

The property lies almost entirely in the floodway and floodplains at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork, Spring Creek, Cypress Creek and Turkey Creek – one of the most flood-prone areas in the region. Ponds and wetlands dot the property. During floods, homeowners on the Scarborough property could become trapped by rising waters, which has reached approximately 25 feet above dry land near the US59 bridge over the West Fork.

So, how could the SJRFPG recommendations improve nearby public safety if adopted?

Applicable Recommendations

At a minimum, the following recommendations could affect development on the Scarborough land and public safety in surrounding areas.

  • L4 – Update current statewide building codes with appropriate freeboard (safety margin above floodplain) or higher flood standards
  • L7 – Clarify and expand county regulatory authority for floodplain management, land-use planning, waterway setbacks, permitting, and management of new development in unincorporated areas
  • L9 – Expand funding for flood early warning systems, stream gages, low-water crossing safety improvements, flood-hazard signage, gates, and roadway warning systems
  • L10 – Provide funding and incentives for conservation easements, land conservation, restoration, riparian protection, wetland protection, and landowner stewardship practices in flood-prone areas
  • L12 – Support creation, consolidation, or reorganization of regional flood authorities, flood-control districts, river authority programs, drainage districts where broader regional coordination is needed
  • A1 – Convert Base Level Engineering (BLE) data into regulatory information or detailed Flood Insurance Rate Maps
  • A3 – Promote public education and outreach regarding flood awareness, preparedness, flood-prone areas, and the importance of protecting floodplains
  • A5 – Develop state incentives for local governments to participate in the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and Community Rating System (CRS) program. CRS exceeds minimum requirements of NFIP and will help achieve state flood plan requirements
  • A6 – Establish a publicly available statewide database to track flood-related fatalities
  • A8 – Model future flood conditions uniformly across the state
  • A10 – Promote nature-based solutions, green infrastructure, floodplain preservation, conservation, and hybrid gray/green approaches
  • A11 – Establish statewide building standards for minimum finished-floor elevations above the 500-year floodplain
  • A14 – Improve methods for measuring and documenting flood damages, including uninsured losses, actual flooded structures, financial damages, agricultural damages, and industrial losses, rather than just relying on flood-insurance claims which undercount damages and economic consequences
  • A16 – Clarify roles and responsibilities for floodplain management in extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ) areas to reduce gaps or overlaps in responsibility for floodplain management, permitting, and drainage standards.

Explaining all these could take thousands of words, so let me focus on three today and discuss the rest in future posts.

Building Codes, Elevations and Overlapping Jurisdictions

Statewide Texas building codes haven’t been updated since 2021. But at that time, the legislature adopted the 2012 International Residential and Building Codes (pre-Harvey) now in effect. Cities and counties may adopt newer editions or local amendments. And two jurisdictions affecting Scarborough have, but they don’t agree.

Part of the Scarborough property lies in the City of Houston’s Extra-Territorial Jurisdiction and part lies in unincorporated Montgomery County. The greatest potential impact of modern flood-design standards isn’t on the land already in the 100-year floodplain. It’s on the land between the 100- and 500-year flood elevations. And only tiny portions of the Scarborough property lie outside the 500-year floodplain.

Scarborough
Scarborough Area in center. FEMA’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer shows pre-Harvey floodplain boundaries which have since expanded, but not yet been adopted. Only the dark green areas inside the brown areas in center are above Scarborough’s current 500-year floodplain.

The latest edition of the international building code provides greater recognition of 500-year flood hazards than the 2012 edition.

One provision in the newest standards that could affect Scarborough: the movement toward regulating/designing for the 500-year floodplain rather than stopping at the traditional 100-year floodplain.

The American Society of Civil Engineers explains that the change was prompted partly by the experience of structures suffering flood damage despite complying with existing codes.

If the state adopted the latest edition of building codes, construction requirements could increase for:

  • Buildings between the 500-year and 100-year floodplains
  • Flood-design elevations
  • Flood loads
  • Flood-resistant materials
  • Elevation of utilities and equipment
  • Flood-proofing (especially significant for commercial buildings at ground level)

FEMA’s analysis of the newest International Codes also cites floodproofing documentation, elevators and conveying systems, manufactured homes, accessory structures and other flood-resistant construction requirements. 

Costs for structures between the new 100-year and 500-year flood zones would see the most impact.

Scarborough is unusual because of its jurisdictional circumstances involving MoCo and Houston. MoCo regs unquestionably matter in its unincorporated jurisdiction. But would Houston regulations trump MoCo’s inside its ETJ? Would new statewide codes trump Houston’s?

Depending on the answers, the Scarborough property could become uneconomical to develop. At that point, other SJFPG recommendations could come into play. But more on those in subsequent posts.

In the meantime, if you haven’t yet signed the petition against Scarborough’s development, please do so now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/2/2026

3321 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Dr. Anna Weiss Becomes New Head of Bayou Land Conservancy

9/19/26 – On September 1, 2026, Dr. Anna Weiss became the new executive director of the Bayou Land Conservancy (BLC), one of the leading conservation groups in the Houston region. Dr. Weiss replaces Jill Boullion who retired after leading BLC for ten years. I interviewed Dr. Weiss about her background and priorities.

BLC’s primary focus is on the Lake Houston watershed which covers approximately 2500 square miles to the west, north, and east of the lake, which provides drinking water for more than 2.2 million people. BLC is nationally accredited and preserves land along streams for flood control, clean water, and wildlife.

Dr. Anna Weiss outside BLC headquarters in the Woodlands

PhD in Environmental Science from UT

Rehak: You earned your PhD in environmental science from UT. What attracted you to that field?

Weiss: I’ve always really loved nature. I grew up on a barrier island in New York, right outside of New York City. So, I spent a lot of time outside as a kid. Eventually, when I went to university, I studied anthropology. I was really curious about how and why humans are the way we are. And how climate and evolution intersect. At that time, I was doing a lot of field work in Kenya. 

And then, in my senior year, Superstorm Sandy hit my hometown. That really made it clear that climate change is not just something happening far away. It’s affecting us. And it really made me want to do something about it. 

So, I thought about the best way to make a difference. And eventually I decided to get a PhD and learn the science.

I studied geosciences at UT Austin to understand how climate impacted ecosystems and environments in the past. Now I’m applying that learning to what’s happening today. How can we preserve and protect our ecosystems? 

Rehak: After UT, you went back to New York?

Weiss: Yes, but before that, I went to Belize. I did a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Belize Environmental Research Institute and applied my research to modern ecosystems. I became a professor there and continued my research. Then I went back to New York and started working with a conservation and restoration organization in New York City.

Work at Green Galveston Initiatives

Rehak: But most recently, you worked in Galveston.

Weiss: I was the director of Green Galveston Initiatives. Galveston reminded me a lot of the little barrier island I grew up on. And it had a lot of the same issues with hurricanes, flooding, and development.

You know, a lot of developers want to build skyscrapers on the beach. But that leads to all sorts of issues. So, I got to do some really exciting work there working on parks – city-owned parks that were just flooding constantly. One was Jones Park. We actually called it Jones Pond because it would just sprinkle and the thing would fill up with water. The other one was Shield Park and this was a park that was just covered in concrete and there was contamination beneath it. So, we couldn’t actually plant trees or anything to help with the heat and shade. 

I worked with the city, engineers, architects and the community to make sure that these parks were not only going to help with the flooding and heat mitigation, but that they would also provide social and economic benefits for neighborhoods.

Spearheading Partnerships to Achieve Results

Those were two exciting capital projects. Another evolved organically. We found many organizations on the island were aligned. But they were not necessarily talking to each other. We had little pockets of groups doing great work. But they could be so much stronger working together and with the City of Galveston. 

Galveston’s comprehensive plan was 15 years old; it was created after Ike. If we wanted to really change the way development was happening, we had to start with the local comprehensive plan, because land development regulations and ordinances evolve from that. The Planning Commission relies on it to say yes or no to a developer. 

So, we put together a group of more than 30 partner organizations to find consensus on a comprehensive plan. Fifteen years later, we were able to analyze the past plan, find where the issues were, and start thinking about how other cities managed those issues? 

Rehak: It sounds a lot like what we need up here.

Weiss: Montgomery County is one of the fastest developing counties in America. 

So, it’s really important that we think about our land use and our natural resources. People need places to live. But their quality of life, health, and safety are also important.

Rehak: You don’t want to see homes flood repeatedly and create conditions that lead to future slums.

Weiss: Exactly.

Making Land Conservation Easier, Raising Awareness

Rehak: What are your priorities as BLC’s new leader ?

Weiss: My first priority is just to learn and listen. This organization has been around for 30 years and has been doing amazing work in a huge footprint. I’ve been here two weeks. So, priority number one is listening and learning. 

I’m also very interested in how policies are affecting the kind of work that we can do as environmentalists. What are the levers of policy and the levers of change that we need at the local, state, and even federal levels? What do we need to do to make land preservation and conservation easier, more common? I’m digging into that side of things. 

It’s also important for people to understand who we are and why we’re doing what we do. Many people look at land conservation as something that rich people do … to get tax breaks. 

But that land also reduces flooding, cleans water, and preserves biodiversity. We need to make sure that everybody from all walks of life knows what we do, why, and how it can help them. So, there’s an educational priority.

We need to show people how nature-based solutions like bioswales can turn the ground into a sponge and absorb water so that we have less flooding and less pollution.

Rehak: Any other priorities?

Weiss: Those are the big ones. 

Importance of Preserving Scarborough Property

Rehak: Let’s discuss a specific example. What would you like to see done with the Scarborough property?

Weiss: Great question. I will preface this by saying I’ve only been here a couple of weeks. But from what I’ve learned, that property is really important in protecting everyone downstream from flooding. If we develop that irresponsibly, it could become a huge problem, not just for the environment, but for people, the economy, and social cohesion. Flooding devastates all of those things. 

I would love to see that land conserved, so that it can do what it’s supposed to do – absorb water.

Rehak: How do we preserve it?

Weiss: There are developers with deep pockets and political connections. That makes it difficult. But there are also a lot of concerned people. And our power is with people. I hope we can put enough pressure on the developers and policy makers to change their minds.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/19/2026

3308 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Flood Resilience Task Force Opposes Scarborough Development

9/11/2026 – The Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force (CFRTF) has passed a resolution opposing the 5300+ acre proposed Scarborough/San Jacinto Preserve development near the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork with Spring, Cypress and Turkey Creeks.

In doing so, it joins Harris County Commissioners Court and the Houston City Council which passed unanimous resolutions opposing the development. More than 9,300 residents of Harris and Montgomery Counties have also signed a Change.org petition opposing it.

Below is the text of the resolution. I have redacted the officers’ signatures to protect their privacy.

Text of Resolution

RESOLUTION BY THE COMMUNITY FLOOD RESILIENCE TASK FORCE OPPOSING PROPOSED SCARBOROUGH DEVELOPMENT (“SAN JACINTO PRESERVE”)

The Community Flood Resilience Task Force (CFRTF) was established by Harris County Commissioners Court to serve in an advisory capacity on flood resilience planning that accounts for community needs and priorities, including flood risk that originates upstream of the county line. Consistent with that mission, the CFRTF adopts the following position regarding the proposed Scarborough development, known as the ‘San Jacinto Preserve.’

The CFRTF shares the conclusion Houston City Council reached in its December 17, 2025 resolution: that catastrophic flooding renders this property unfit for residential development, and its highest and best use would instead be for flood mtigation and as a public park. The CFRTF opposes residential development of this property and supports its preservation as open space.

The proposed development would place approximately 5,300 acres, at the confluence of Spring Creek, Cypress Creek, Turkey Creek, and the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, west of Kingwood, into residential use. This property consists predominantly of active floodways, floodplains, and wetlands that currently function as a natural sponge, slowing and absorbing stormwater while filtering the water that ultimately flows into Lake Houston. Clearing and filling these wetlands to elevate the property for development would increase the speed and volume of stormwater runoff, placing downstream communities at greater risk of flooding, while undermining regional flood mitigation efforts already underway.

Beyond flood risk, this property sits within one of the most environmentally sensitive parts of the Lake Houston watershed, which serves as the primary drinking water source for approximately 2.4 million people across the Greater Houston area. Development of this tract therefore raises concerns not only for downstream flooding, but also for the water quality relied upon by a substantial share of the region’s population.

The CFRTF believes this property is better preserved as natural floodplain and green space than developed for residential use, given the severity of flood risk in this watershed and the role this land plays in protecting downstream communities and drinking water quality.

ADOPTED on August 28, 2026, by the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force.

(Signed) Dr. Pamela Hernandez, Chair

Mary Anne Piacentini, Vice Chair

Chris Valdez, Secretary

For a PDF of the full document on letterhead, but with signatures redacted for privacy reasons, click here.

About the CFRTF

The Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force consists of ordinary citizens who represent communities and watersheds across Harris County. The 17 volunteer members are flood survivors, community organizers, engineers, advocates, and technical experts, working together to reduce flood risk for all Harris County communities.

Add Your Name to the Change.Org Petition

Please add your name to the Change.org petition and help protect your community by clicking here.

Ryko, Scarborough Flood risk

Location of proposed development outlined in screen capture from FEMA Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Cross-hatch = floodway. Aqua = 100 year floodplain. Brown = 500 year floodplain. Note: this is a pre-Atlas 14 flood map. Montgomery County has not yet updated its flood maps.

To learn more, go to the search bar of ReduceFlooding.com and search on Scarborough or Ryko (the previous owner of this land).

And I highly recommend this post that contains an original song, Scarborough Bottom.

Please sign the petition today and forward this post to all your friends and family. Help put the petition over 10,000 signatures.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/11/2026

3300 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Bayou Land Conservancy Joins Crowd Opposing Scarborough Development

7/23/26 – One of the leading conservation groups in the area, the Bayou Land Conservancy (BLC), has lined up against the proposed 5,300-acre Scarborough development at the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork.

BLC joins a growing list of people and organizations opposing the floodplain development, which one of the area’s leading hydrologists said would “be like aiming a firehose at Humble and Kingwood.”

Almost 10,000 citizens have already signed a petition against Scarborough’s development. Harris County Commissioners Court and Houston City Council have also unanimously approved resolutions opposing it because of its potential impacts on public safety and regional infrastructure.

According to BLC, development of the environmentally sensitive property also raises concerns about drinking water, and the future of one of the Houston region’s most important natural floodplains.

BLC’s Board of Directors recently adopted a formal resolution opposing the Scarborough Development. The Board believes the project would put critical floodplains and wetlands at risk and could increase flooding downstream while affecting water quality in the Lake Houston watershed.

Scarborough
From FEMA’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Scarborough property in center at confluence of Spring and Cypress Creeks with San Jacinto West Fork. US59, Kingwood and Forest Cove on right.Cross-hatch = Floodway, Aqua = 100-Year Floodplain, Brown = 500-year Floodplain.

Note that the flood map above is based on pre-Atlas-14 data. So the situation is actually much worse than depicted. Montgomery County has not yet adopted new flood maps based on Atlas 14.

Why Leaving the Land Natural Matters

Scarborough’s property currently functions as a natural floodwater storage area. It slows and absorbs stormwater while filtering water that ultimately flows into Lake Houston.

Lake Houston serves as the primary drinking water source for approximately 2.4 million people across the Greater Houston Area, according to Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger.

The property, commonly referred to as the “Scarborough Development” or Ryko tract, lies within one of the most environmentally sensitive and flood-prone areas of the Lake Houston watershed.

“Bayou Land Conservancy’s mission is the permanent preservation of land along streams to protect people from flooding, safeguard clean water, and conserve wildlife habitat,” said Jill Boullion, the Executive Director of Bayou Land Conservancy. “This property checks all those boxes. It needs to be protected, but we need help from the community to succeed,” she added.

This specific tract of land consists predominantly of active floodplains and wetlands that currently act as a critical natural sponge, absorbing and slowing floodwaters, and providing essential water filtration for the Lake Houston watershed. Clearing and filling these wetlands to elevate the property for development could increase the speed and volume of stormwater runoff, placing downstream communities at greater risk of flooding while undermining regional flood mitigation efforts.

Ryko Flyover
Typical Wetland on Scarborough Property

BLC Encourages Public to Sign Petition

BLC is encouraging members of the public to join the effort and make their voices heard by signing a petition to support the permanent protection of the proposed development and by contacting their elected representatives.

Those interested in supporting this conservation effort can help by signing the petition against Scarborough, contacting their elected officials, and advocating for the permanent conservation of this land. 

View and sign the petition at: https://www.change.org/p/protect-our-land-future-stop-the-scarborough-development.

Other Specifics of BLC Board Decision

The BLC Board has also authorized BLC staff to actively advocate for the preservation of the property through:

  • Public education
  • Collaboration with community and environmental partners
  • Engagement with elected officials
  • Submission of regulatory comments

The BLC Board may also pursue conservation easements to permanently protect portions of the property.

About Bayou Land Conservancy: Bayou Land Conservancy preserves land along streams for flood control, clean water, and wildlife. BLC is a nationally accredited, community-supported land preservation organization dedicated to permanently protecting land, with a focus on the streams that feed Lake Houston, an important source of drinking water for millions of people in the Houston region.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/23/26

3250 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

How Flood Protection Can Increase Consequences of Large Floods

Academic research into flooding suggests that “Flood protection tends to reduce small floods, but increases the consequences of rare, large floods.” This is one of the central ideas in modern flood-risk management.

It does not mean that flood-control projects are bad. Rather, it describes an unintended sociological feedback loop that can emerge over the long term, if structural protection is not paired with prudent land-use planning.

The concept traces back to the work of Gilbert F. White in 1945 and has been expanded by researchers such as Raymond J. Burby, Gilberto Di Baldassarre, and others. It is commonly referred to as the levee effect or the safe-development paradox. Simply stated, flood-risk-reduction projects can lull people into a false sense of security.

The Basic Mechanism

The process unfolds over decades rather than years. It follows these steps:

  1. Flood protection is built…
  2. Frequent flooding declines…
  3. Confidence increases…
  4. More homes, businesses and infrastructure are built…
  5. Property values rise…
  6. A flood larger than the “design event” (i.e., the 100-year flood) occurs…
  7. Communities experience much greater losses than would have occurred decades earlier.

Structural flood protection often reduces flood frequency. However, it encourages much more development behind the protection, so exposure increases dramatically. Then, when an event exceeds the design capacity, total losses can be much larger than before.

Why This Happens

Here’s an example. Imagine an area that floods every five years.

Initially, only 100 homes might occupy the area because of flood frequency.

  • A moderate flood might damage 50 homes.
  • Then, a levee is built to withstand the 100-year flood.

For the next 30 years:

  • No floods occur.
  • Confidence grows.
  • The area now contains:
    • 5,000 homes
    • Schools
    • Hospitals
    • Shopping centers
    • Utilities.

Then a 500-year flood overtops the levee.

The levee did exactly what it was designed to do for decades. But because so much development accumulated behind it, the rare failure produces vastly greater losses than would have occurred before the levee existed.

That is the paradox.

Example: New Orleans and Katrina

Perhaps the world’s best-known example is New Orleans during Katrina.

For decades, extensive levees reduced frequent flooding. Large areas below sea level became heavily urbanized. And population and infrastructure expanded behind the levee system.

When Hurricane Katrina exceeded parts of the system’s design, multiple levees failed. Approximately 80% of New Orleans flooded. More than 1,800 people died. Economic losses exceeded $100 billion.

Researchers argue that the levees enabled much greater development in areas that remained vulnerable to catastrophic flooding if protection was exceeded.

The Implication for Houston and the San Jacinto Basin

This idea has direct relevance to the Lake Houston Area and the San Jacinto River Basin.

Suppose all the projects proposed after Harvey (additional upstream detention, optimized gate operations on Lake Conroe, channel conveyance improvements, more floodgates for Lake Houston, etc.) are implemented and reduce the probability of flooding from moderate storms.

However, they could create a widespread perception that “This land is now safe.” And that perception could lead to substantial new development in flood-prone portions of the basin over several decades such as the 5,300 acre Scarborough property at the confluence of the West Fork and Spring Creek.

Scarborough wetlands
Wetlands on Scarborough property

Exposure increases. Property values increase. Infrastructure becomes more concentrated.

Then, when an event exceeds the protection system — just as Harvey exceeded many historical design assumptions — the total losses may be larger than they otherwise would have been.

This is precisely why many modern flood-risk experts argue that structural protection must be paired with land-use management rather than viewed as a substitute for it. But “land use management” is fightin’ words in Houston.

Breaking the Cycle

The encouraging news is that the research also points to ways to avoid the paradox. The most commonly recommended strategies are:

  • Preserve portions of the natural floodplain instead of developing every protected acre.
  • Use regional detention and natural storage to reduce flood peaks.
  • Educate home buyers about the limits of flood protection.
  • Require resilient construction (elevated structures, floodproofing) even behind levees or reservoirs.
  • Manage development at the watershed scale, not just parcel by parcel.

Why This is Especially Relevant to the San Jacinto

This concept is particularly important for the San Jacinto basin because it reframes the objective of the SJRA’s Joint Reservoir Operations Study.

The study’s success should not be measured solely by whether it lowers flood stages by a few inches. It should also include:

  • Strong warnings about the safe development paradox
  • Education about design assumptions for flooding, i.e., the height of foundations above the 100-year flood level.

Said another way, the study should discourage development that eventually erases any gains – one of the central themes in contemporary flood-risk research.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/5/2026

3232 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Proposal for Comprehensive Post-Mining Plan Could Help Avert Future Tragedies

6/29/26 – Forming a Montgomery County Lake District could create a unified post-mining plan for dozens of individual sand mines along the West Fork, benefiting industry, residents and government at all levels. Here’s how.

Roaring Through the Cracks

In August of 2025, I documented the massive breach in the dike of an old sand mine on the San Jacinto West Fork. The 130-acre pond dropped at least 10 feet in less than an hour. All that water rushing out was like a dam breaking. It caused tremendous erosion.

Rushing water destroyed everything in its path and washed a tremendous amount of sediment into the river. 1300 acre-feet of fresh water weighs approximately 3.5 billion pounds! The force of that water enlarged a nick in the dike to an opening up to approximately 150 feet wide by 1000 feet long in minutes.

A year later, the abandoned mine’s owners still have not fixed the damage. See this one-minute video on YouTube of the devastation left behind. I shot the video on 6/27/26.

Tragically, it was all preventable.

How It Happened

Hanson Aggregates stopped mining the pond in 2021. Just months later, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) instituted new best management practices for mining in the San Jacinto River Basin. The new rules called for miners to develop a post-mining/abandonment plan, but TCEQ says that never happened in this case because of the timing.

A group called Ags Unlimited LLC later bought the abandoned mine in 2023 and still owns it today, according to the Montgomery County Appraisal District.

From MCAD-tx.org

It’s not clear what Ags Unlimited planned for the property. At various points in a conversation with the manager, he mentioned building a boat launch, a kid’s camp, a recreational amenity for an adjacent residential community, and selling wetland-mitigation credits. He later told investigators from the TCEQ that he hoped to build a “recreational pond for livestock management.”

John McKinney, the Montgomery County Floodplain Manager, says the County cited the new owners for non-compliance on December 19, 2024. The issue: Repairing the berm around the pond and installing overflow pipes.

On August 24, 2025, the berm blew out when a contractor with a small backhoe tried to install the overflow pipes. According to one account, he dug too deep into the sandy soil and a trickle quickly enlarged into a torrent.

Breach in abandoned sand mine on San Jacinto West Fork on 8/24/25
Photo taken on 8/24/25 as water was still rushing through breach. Compare height of breach to height of excavator.

Vision for the Future: Montgomery County Lake District

Regardless of what were perhaps good intentions, a disaster resulted. And the present owners seem incapable of fixing it.

The lower water levels have contributed to headcut erosion on adjoining properties, now threatening one widow’s home. So, how do we prevent such harm in the future?

I propose a cooperative effort of cities, counties, Texas Parks & Wildlife, TCEQ, Texas General Land Office (GLO) and industry to designate the areas where sand has been mined along the San Jacinto West Fork, along with floodways, as “The Montgomery County Lake District.” The concept: Turn a network of abandoned mines into publicly owned green space connected by trails.

The Texas Aggregates and Concrete Association (TACA) could help lead the way. It is one of the most powerful lobbies in Austin.

TACA members on the West Fork now have an obligation to provide abandonment/post-mining plans to the TCEQ. Selling their land when mining is complete to the MoCo Lake District could relieve mine owners of the need to develop their own individual abandonment plans. It could also create a positive, lasting legacy for the industry.

From the standpoint of residents, proximity to green spaces enhances surrounding home values and provides healthy, outdoor recreational space. Preservation of floodways and floodplains also reduces flooding.

Governments at All Levels Could Benefit

Former mines along the West Fork could become a new state park under the auspices of Texas Parks and Wildlife, which already has responsibility for rivers in Texas. Land is scarce in urban areas. But abandoned mines sell at a steep discount.

Undeveloped land deep in floodplains and floodways, such as the Scarborough property, just downstream from the Hanson mine, might also be included.

The General Land Office (GLO) has partnered with Scarborough and may be looking for a way to back out of the deal. A state park might be an honorable and popular way to do that.

Cities and counties could reduce water purification and dredging costs. They could also eliminate headaches such as the one above that damage their residents.

The state has resources to address such issues. Small private groups like Ags Unlimited rarely do. Collectively, we can create something far larger than any one group could by itself.

Rough outline of proposed MoCo Lake District incorporating current and abandoned sand mines as well as undeveloped land in floodways and floodplains along West Fork from US59 to Conroe.

If it works, this could become a model for responsible aggregate production in Texas and the country.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/26

3226 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Editorial: “Me vs. We” in Scarborough Development Debate

6/7/2026 – Much of human history comes down to balancing the rights of individuals vs. those of society as a whole. Said another way, where do we draw the line when considering “Me vs. We?”

The proposed Scarborough Development, backed by the State of Texas General Land Office, in the floodplains of Spring Creek, Cypress Creek, Turkey Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork makes a good example.

Confluence Spring Creek and West Fork after heavy rains
Flood-prone Scarborough property lies inside the V at the confluence of Spring Creek (l) and San Jacinto West Fork (r).

Should a developer have the ability to build on its own property? Even if altering the floodplain will endanger the lives of future homeowners, first responders, and people in surrounding areas? And what if you, the taxpayer, are asked to mitigate that risk in the future? That’s the Me vs. We debate. What’s good for one isn’t always good for the majority.

Me vs. We in American Life

The Me vs. We debate permeates almost every aspect of American life. For instance, we give up some of our freedom as individuals when we:

  • Marry and raise a family
  • Obey laws
  • Choose to live in a city
  • Join the Armed Forces
  • Take a job with a company
  • Go through airport security
  • Stop at a red light.

In America, the “Me vs. We debate” divides conservatives from liberals and Red states from Blue on most contentious issues

After 250 years, we still haven’t figured out where to draw that line – at least not universally. We just let people and companies shop for jurisdictions compatible with their own self-interest. Want conservative? Move to Texas. Want to hedge your bets? Move to Harris County.

Different Jurisdictions, Different Philosophies

Want to file a lawsuit against the EPA or against polluters? Shop for a court friendly to your point of view.

Should a company be allowed to build on cheap, floodplain property likely to destroy homes and lives? That is the debate with Scarborough. The company stands to make immense profits if it can secure development permits for its 5,300-acre property.

Against that backdrop, lies the safety and security of hundreds of thousands of people, most of whom remain blissfully ignorant of the developing threat upstream.

Engineers using mathematical models estimate the probability of becoming a victim due to alterations they propose to the floodplain. But, in the end, they are highly paid consultants trying to prove the viability of their recommendations to clients.

The public rarely has the knowledge or money to challenge their findings. The public must rely on elected representatives to protect them, the same representatives who receive immense campaign contributions from the engineering companies and their clients.

The High Cost of Failure

If the engineers get it wrong, which they often do, you, the taxpayer, not the developer, will pick up the tab.

If engineers always got it right, American government(s) wouldn’t spend $40–70 billion per year on disaster relief and flood mitigation.

And the shame of it is that floodplain preservation is almost always cheaper than flood mitigation and disaster recovery…by a huge margin.

The proposed Scarborough development is almost half as large as Kingwood. And almost all of it is in floodplains or floodways.

FEMA’s estimated feet above dry land for 100- and 500-year floods in the Scarborough area shown above.

Houston and Harris County have already passed unanimous resolutions against developing the Scarborough land. But it’s in Montgomery County, which has less stringent flood regulations.

Regardless, concerned Montgomery County residents have started a petition against the development.

Please join them by signing the petition today.

Change.org

Ask everyone you know to sign it, too. Help protect your home and family.

This is an election year. Let’s make elections painful for the people pushing this development. The best time to stop a problem is before it starts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/7/2026

3204 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Still Time to Sign Petition Against Upstream Floodplain Development

5/02/26 – There’s still time to sign the petition against Scarborough’s 5300+ acre floodplain development upstream from the Lake Houston Area between Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork. One of the region’s leading hydrologists told me that if it gets developed, it would be like aiming a firehose at Humble and Kingwood.

Why This Land Should Not Be Developed

This is one of the most flood-prone areas in the entire Houston region. See this 30-second video of wetlands that lace the area.

https://reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Scarborough-20260502.mov

Also see FEMA’s pre-Atlas-14 flood map below.

Scarborough
Scarborough Area in center of FEMA’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Crosshatch = floodway, Aqua = 100-year floodplain, Brown = 500-year.

New flood maps show the situation is even worse than it appears above. The area is about half the size of Kingwood and exceedingly flat.

Looking NW at Scarborough property at confluence of Spring Creek (l) and San Jacinto West Fork (r).

Near the confluence, dry land would be under at least 25 feet of water in another flood like Harvey.

From FEMA Base Flood Elevation Viewer

Just this morning, at 8 AM after a mere 4 inches of rain, the Harris County Flood Warning System showed the river was in danger of overflowing near the bridge – the only such channel in the area.

From HarrisCountyFWS.org at 8AM on 5/2/26

This is just a dangerous place to build, at least in my opinion.

GLO Backing Developer

Yet strangely, the Texas General Land Office, which is responsible for $14 billion dollars of HUD flood-mitigation money in Texas, is a financial partner in the development. Even worse, the GLO refuses to explain why, what the terms of its investment are, and how much of your tax money it has invested. Print out the poster below, and share it with your friends and family.

For a high res PDF suitable for printing, click here.

Please Sign Petition NOW

But above all, if you haven’t yet signed the petition protesting this development, do it NOW!

A Friendswood executive once told me they looked at extending Kingwood Drive across this property but gave up on the idea because it would have cost too much to do it safely.

So, read the details of the petition at Change.org and please sign it. It will only take a minute and could save your home someday. Not to mention, a lot of your tax dollars now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/2/2026

3168 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Sign Petition to Reduce Your Flood Risk, Protect Floodplain

4/28/26 – To everyone in southern Montgomery County and the Lake Houston Area: please consider signing the petition discussed below concerning the proposed Scarborough Development. It may help preserve vital floodplains in your area, thereby reducing your flood risk.

Background on Proposed Development

A Dallas-based developer named Scarborough has purchased 5,300+ acres of land at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork and Spring Creek. Hydrologists say that developing this land would be like aiming a fire hose at the Humble/Kingwood area. Backwater effects could also increase flood risk for Montgomery County residents.

Harris County and City of Houston have already unanimously passed resolutions opposing development of this flood-prone land. However, the Texas General Land Office and School Land Board have reportedly pledged $140 million to help develop it.

Petition to Stop Government Secrecy Surrounding the Plan

Unfortunately, the GLO and Attorney General Paxton’s office are concealing details of how the state is spending your tax dollars to flood you.

This petition on change.org (https://c.org/77yd6YRMZ8) will help convey your concerns to Montgomery County and State leaders.

Please forward this link to everyone you know in the area and anyone concerned about open, transparent government.

Also, please talk this issue up at community events. The poster below summarizes key points.

Here’s the area purchased by Scarborough. See area outlined in red below.

Ryko drainage impact study illustration showing outline and floodplains.
Blue and gray shaded areas represent flood zones.

Cypress Creek, Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork all converge here. Flood heights could reach 18 to 25 feet above dry land in this area.

FEMA BFE of Ryko Land at Confluence
Base Flood Elevations near confluence

Here are FEMA’s CURRENT effective floodplains and floodways.

Ryko Flood risk
Crosshatch = Floodway, Aqua = 100-year floodplain, Brown – 500-year floodplain.

However, keep in mind that that map is in the process of being replaced. New maps show even more of the property in more dangerous flood zones.

MAAPnext shows new flood maps based on post-Harvey data, with a slider that lets you see how much floodplains and floodways expanded across the southern portion of Scarborough’s land.

Please Help: Sign Petition Now

By signing this petition, you are advocating for responsible development that prioritizes the welfare of our community in Spring, TX and the surrounding areas of Kingwood, Humble and the Lake Houston area by preserving this land and keeping it as a green space.

Please help prevent a potentially disastrous project and ensure a more secure future for us all. Please sign this petition to make a stand against the Scarborough Lane Development. Now! It will only take a minute.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/28/2026

3164 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.