On March 9, 2023, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service (NWS) announced that La Niña conditions which persisted for 3-years have finally ended. But we are not shifting directly into El Niño. Instead, we’re entering a transitional phase. NWS expects neutral conditions to continue through the Northern Hemisphere into spring and early summer of 2023.
La Niña and El Niño represent opposite phases of what meteorologists call ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. They govern recurring climate patterns across the tropical Pacific and have a cascade of global side effects, says NWS.
The patterns shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years. This past La Niña phase lasted three years, an unusually long time.
NWS predicts that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the spring. The weather service also predicts El Niño conditions to form during summer 2023 and persist through the fall.
Impacts on Weather
The oscillation brings predictable shifts in ocean surface and atmospheric temperatures. These shifts disrupt the wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics.
El Niño brings cooler, wetter conditions to the southern U.S. in winter months. It also brings stronger steering currents that can disrupt low-pressure systems coming off the coast of Africa that turn into hurricanes.
La Niña, on the other hand, usually means less disruption, more Atlantic storms, and deeper droughts in the southern U.S. But we’re finally putting the most recent La Niña behind us.
ENSO Influence on Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons
The continental United States and Caribbean Islands have a substantially decreased chance of experiencing a hurricane during El Niño and an increased chance of experiencing a hurricane during La Niña. These maps (by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell) explain why.
Typical El Niño effects on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity.
Overall, El Niño contributes to more eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. Conversely, La Niña contributes to fewer eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and more Atlantic hurricanes – exactly the opposite.
Typical La Niña effects on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity.
Other Influences on Hurricane Formation: AMO
NOAA also says that other oscillations, such as the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) also influence hurricane formation. Thewarm phase of the AMO is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures and high hurricane activity in the main development region of the Atlantic between Western Africa and the Caribbean.
“The hurricane activity in any given season often reflects a combination of the multi-decadal signals and ENSO,” says NOAA.
For More Information
For a fuller discussion of how El Niño and La Niña influence other aspects of weather worldwide, check out NOAA’s Climate.gov, especially the FAQ page.
Also, the Associated Press ran an interesting story this morning by Seth Borenstein. The headline: “La Nina, which worsens hurricanes and drought, is gone.”
Borenstein says NOAA gives El Niño a 60% chance of returning this fall. But there’s also a 5% chance that La Niña will return for an unprecedented fourth winter.
We should have more certainty in a few months.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/9/23
2018 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/El-Nino-Effects.jpg?fit=610%2C320&ssl=1320610adminadmin2023-03-09 13:30:112023-03-09 13:59:17NWS Says La Niña Has Ended, Likely Impact on Weather
While major cities and counties throughout Texas post maps and detailed descriptions of their road-bond spending and projects, Harris County does not.
In June 2022, County Commissioner Adrian Garcia pitched bonds for roads, parks and public safety totaling $1.2 billion. It included $900 million for roads, $200 million for parks and $100 million for public-safety infrastructure.
Commissioners Tom Ramsey and Jack Cagle tried to slow the bond offering down until projects could be identified, prioritized, and estimated. However, Garcia, with the help of Commissioner Rodney Ellis and County Judge Lina Hidalgo, put the bond on the November ballot and it passed with little disclosure.
A series of poorly advertised and attended public meetings provided no details as to how the money would be spent except for some high-level breakdowns between roads and parks. Neither did the bond website – despite promises made in Commissioners Court that it would.
Nine months later, Harris County still has not provided any details.
Rahman Presentation to ACEC Now Public
Dr. Milton Rahman, P.E., PMP, CFM, ENV SP., Executive Director and County Engineer did provide a project update earlier this month about the bond to the American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC) Houston. However, it provided only a little more detail than we already knew about how the money would be allocated. And it provided no location-specific data about where the money would be spent, i.e., which stretches of roads.
Looking only at transportation and drainage (second table), Precinct 3 will receive approximately $70 to $90 million less than Precincts 1 and 2and $40 less than Precinct 4.
To qualify for any funding, roads must have a Pavement Condition Index below 40 (very poor to failing). But in scoring, roads will also be ranked by their surrounding population and the number of socially vulnerable residents. (See below).
The road bond was broken up into five different segments; this was one.For those other criteria, see the slide below.Note references to population and social vulnerability. Rahman did not specify the weights given to these other factors.
Rahman did assign weights to partnership dollars, but he fails to define the factors. For instance, what does he mean by “project area” below? It gets a whopping 25% of the weight.
In short, he still won’t say wherethe money will go.
11X More for Admin than in Flood Bond 5X Larger
But Dr. Rahman does plan to take $110 million for management and administration. Compare that to the $10 million allocated for admin in 2018 flood bond that totaled $5 billion with partner funding. Dr. Rahman will take 11 times more for a bond one-fifth the size. It’s even more than the $100 million being invested in public-safety facilities which were so sorely in need of help before the election!
The County disclosed none of this to voters before they voted on the bond.
Even now, five months later, with the little information we have, I would find it impossible to make an informed decision based on this vague, high-level, process-oriented information presented by Dr. Rahman. But I do have deep suspicions that the $110 million could go to pay raises for political hires.
Rahman Withholding Pavement Condition Information
Even though Harris County has calculated a Pavement Condition Index (PCI) for every road in the county, it has not published the information. Nor did the Engineering Department supply the PCI report to ReduceFlooding.com in response to a direct request.
And even through Dr. Rahmen has already allocated the money, nowhere in his report does he address the number of lane miles needing repair in each precinct.
Other Oddities
For the record, Precinct 3 will receive the least money by far. It has almost half the county’s lane miles to maintain (47%) but will receive less than one-fifth of the bond money allocated to roads and drainage.
Moreover, large portions of Precincts 1 and 2 fall within the City of Houston and other municipalities such as Pasadena and Baytown. Thus they share responsibility and costs.
Finally, before redistricting, Commissioner Garcia made sure that most of the bad roads in his Precinct 2 magically wound up in Precinct 3.
With all the other factors folded in, there’s no guarantee most of Precinct 3’s roads will ever see 2022 road bond money.
Other Areas Far More Transparent
Because of the complexity of allocating bond dollars, virtually all major cities and counties in Texas simply publish maps that show where bond money will go.
But not in Harris County! That would be too simple. And why be transparent when you can keep people in the dark and avoid complaints about fairness?
To see how transparently other areas treat their voters, consult the links below.
When governments go out of their way to conceal information as certain commissioners have here, it raises the question “Why?”
It’s time you started demanding answers to that question. Your safety is at stake.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/8/23
2017 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/20230308-Screenshot-2023-03-08-at-6.24.35-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=16741200adminadmin2023-03-08 20:50:492023-03-08 23:44:44Other Areas Disclose Road-Bond Spending Details, But Not Harris County
The Preserve at Woodridge website indicates that the developer, Guefen, will begin leasing spacious, 763 SF, 1-bedroom, 1-bath, luxury homes beginning March 16, 2023 … for only $1365 per month. Even more spacious, 1388-SF homes will begin leasing later at just $2145 per month.
The marketing theme: “There’s room for you at Preserve at Woodridge.”
According to the website, luxury units in the Preserve offer “unparalleled amenities,” such as backyards, toilets, tubs, sinks and on-street parking – with a $0 deposit. A few lucky renters will even have the option of reserved, covered parking spots for an undisclosed fee.
But the biggest plus? Some units have enough grass for a lawn chair.
65% Impervious Cover?
Engineers claim the detention pond will hold a 100-year rain that falls in 24-hours. But they also based their calculations on 65% impervious cover. The photos below show that may have been understated.
The higher the percentage of impervious cover, the more runoff you have and the larger the stormwater detention basin you need.
It will be interesting to see how these homes fare when FEMA releases new flood maps later this year.
Oh well. Too late now!
Photos Taken March 3, 2023
The pictures show how close the homes are to completion…and each other.
Overview of Preserve at Woodridge, looking east over Woodridge Parkway.The grand entry near Woodridge Parkway built around a community pool. Those elongated structures are shared garage spaces, but most of the parking will be on-street.You’ll have to share those spacious back yards with an air conditioning unit, but you’ll have a concrete patio in case grass doesn’t grow in the shade.Twelve lucky homes will have a view of the stormwater detention basin which will hold water permanently.
With luck, the waterfront residents might even be able to shag some foul balls from the Kingwood Park High School baseball fields across the ditch.
Will Proximity of Homes be a Pro or Con?
Psychological research has documented strong positive associations between interpersonal closeness and social decisions such as cooperative behavior and trust. From that perspective, perhaps housing like this is the wave of the future.
On the other hand, overcrowding can lead to psychological distress. That, in turn, has an effect on behavior and the ability to cope with conditions. Researchers have linked lack of privacy to depression and other negative psychological consequences. But hey. It can’t be more crowded than New York.
This is a new model for development – a whole community of homes separated by only 4-5 feet. Only time will tell whether the pros outweigh the cons.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/7/2023
2016 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/20230304-DJI_0206.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-03-07 16:17:132023-03-07 17:40:19“Spacious” 763-SF Homes Available March 16
The rate of excavation for another stormwater detention basin on the Woodridge Village property picked up 47% in the last five weeks. That’s compared to the weekly average since Sprint Sand and Clay began excavating last year under the terms of its Excavation and Removal (E&R) contract with Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD).
March 6, 2023, Sprint has excavated 93,023 CY, according to HCFCD.
Dividing the difference by five weeks, yields an average of 2,532.6 CY per week.
The weekly average since the start of excavation 54 weeks ago equals 1722.7 CY.
So, the February/early March data is an increase of more than 800 cubic yards per week compared to the long-term average, a 47% increase.
Demand for dirt under E&R contracts varies with housing starts and road construction. Housing starts have slowed greatly in recent months as interest rates have increased to cool inflation. It’s not clear yet whether the increased rate of excavation represents a temporary blip or the beginning of a turnaround in the market for dirt.
Then and Now Photos
Here’s the extent of excavation on the new pond as of January 24, 2023.
Woodridge Village Detention Basin #6 at the end of January 2023.Contractors have not yet connected the new basinto others.
Here’s how the new basin looks today from approximately the same location – much longer!
Same location at start of March.Sprint has not yet reached the end of S1, the detention basin on the right.Looking south toward Kingwood. Sprint has the width of four or five more houses to go before it reaches as far as the end of S1. The tree line in the background is the Harris/Montgomery County line.
Increased Rate is Welcome News
The increase in the excavation rate is welcome news for residents who flooded twice in 2019, thanks in large part to Woodridge Village construction practices. Perry Homes left the aborted development about 40% short of Atlas-14 requirements. Since then HCFCD and the City of Houston bought the site and are working on ways to reduce flood risk.
E&R contracts give HCFCD a low-cost head start on mitigation as engineers finalize plans. Knowing that they will need additional stormwater detention capacity, HCFCD established a flexible contract with Sprint for only $1,000. It lets Sprint remove up 500,000 CY and sell the dirt at market rates. This virtually eliminates a major construction cost and provides major savings to taxpayers.
Sprint is obligated to remove a minimum average of 5,000 CY per month and must place the dirt outside of the 100-year floodplain. The contract lasts three years.
Sprint will excavate within the red line. If they move the total 500,000 cubic yards, they will more than double stormwater detention capacity on the site.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/6/2023
2015 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1264 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/20230304-DJI_0190.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-03-06 15:31:292023-04-03 15:55:23Rate of Woodridge Village Excavation Increases 47%
Two on the east side of FM2100 have come a long way since I first photographed them seven months ago. Last July, I flew over Los Piños and Saint Tropez. At the time, Los Piños was paving streets. Saint Tropez had just broken ground and started clearing.
On 3/5/23, I flew over both again and drove through Los Piños.
Saint Tropez is in upper portion of map at FM2100 and Meyer Road. Los Piños is south of Saint Tropez.
Los Piños now has a welcome center open that trumpets “owner financing.” And Saint Tropez looks to be in the final stages of clearing and grading. Let’s look at some “then-and-now” photos for both areas.
Los Piños
July 2022
Los Piños Phase I in July 2022
March 2023
Los Piños Phase I looking west, March 5, 2023Los Piños Phase I looking east, March 5, 2023
The 130-acre Los Piños Phase I tract represents only 0.34% of the larger LH Ranch Tract from which it is carved.
Saint Tropez
Looking SW
Megatel, the developer had just broken ground the month before I first flew over St. Tropez in July 2022.
Saint Tropez in July 2022. Looking SW from NE corner.
Here’s how the property looks today from the same angle.
Saint Tropez looking SW from NE corner, March 5, 2023
Looking SE from Over FM2100
Saint Tropez in July 2022, looking SE from NW cornerSame angle seven months later. Saint Tropez in March 2023.
From FM2100 to the far end of the development is about a mile. The owner, Megatel plans to build a 1,000-acre, 4500-home community around a giant manmade lagoon with white sand beaches, a water park with surf simulator, and an entertainment district.
The press release announcing the groundbreaking last year in June stated that Megatel anticipated completion of Phase I sometime in the first quarter of 2023. They have a long way to go in the next three weeks! Rising interest rates and the recession in the housing market may have slowed plans down.
Los Piños Drainage Plans Claim No Adverse Impact
Both developments naturally drain southeast toward tributaries of Luce Bayou. You can see a channel leading toward them in the photo below. But at this writing, I only have drainage plans for Los Piños.
Looking SE from Saint Tropez in foreground toward Los Piños (upper right) and Key Gully/Luce Bayou out of sight in background. Drainage channels from Saint Tropez (upper left) and Los Piños (foreground) come together and veer right toward Key Gully and then Luce Bayou.
Preston Hydrologic developed the drainage plans for Los Piños and claimed the side slopes of the channels would be grass-lined to reduce/prevent erosion.
The developer may have to replant grass to reduce erosion. Los Piñosphoto taken 3/5/2023.
While the upper portions of channel banks have some grass, it appears that grass on the lower portions has washed away. Significant erosion is visible on channel banks and culverts between these linear stormwater detention basins are filling with silt.
For the complete Los Piños drainage analysis, click here. The engineering company claims it has 25% more stormwater-detention-basin capacity than necessary. That should actually reduce flood risk downstream, assuming the plans are accurate. Preston claims Los Piños will have no adverse impact.
Wetlands are interlaced throughout this area. And wetlands mitigation will be part of the plans for developments on both sides of FM2100, according to the Army Corps.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/5/2023
2014 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/20230305-DJI_0268.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-03-05 19:18:422024-02-04 12:09:32Los Piños Now Selling Lots in Huffman; Saint Tropez Still Clearing, Grading
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) offers an informative brochure titled Stormwater to Trees. It discusses how to engineer urban forests for stormwater management.
The brochure primarily targets engineers, planners, developers, architects, arborists and public officials. However, residents concerned about the loss of trees to new development may find it a useful tool to begin discussions with all of the above.
The 34-page brochure is about using trees to augment existing stormwater management systems and improve water quality while beautifying cities. It contains four major sections, briefly summarized below.
Section One: Urban Stormwater Runoff
By design and function, urban areas are covered with impervious surfaces such as roofs, streets, sidewalks, and parking lots. Rain falling on impervious surfaces cannot infiltrate the ground. Instead, it creates runoff: a problem for everyone. The runoff collects pollutants on its way to storm sewers that discharge into ditches, streams, bayous, lakes and bays.
This is how “non-point source pollution” starts. It can contaminate water supplies and affect the health of plants, fish, animals, and people. Excess runoff can also erode and damage property.
Section Two: The Role of Trees in Stormwater Management
In cities, trees can play an important role in stormwater management by reducing the amount of runoff that enters storm sewers. Trees act as mini-reservoirs that reduce and control runoff by:
Transpiration: Drawing water in through their roots and gently releasing it back into the atmosphere in the form of water vapor.
Interception: Leaves absorb rainfall, reducing the amount that hits the ground, and delaying/reducing peak flows.
Reduced Erosion: Tree canopies diminish the volume and velocity of rainfall, lessening its erosive force.
Increased Infiltration: Roots increase both the rate and absolute level of stormwater infiltration.
Phytoremediation: Trees can take up trace amounts of harmful chemicals and transform them into less harmful substances.
Increased soil volume and vegetation, including trees, maximizes potential for absorption, bioremediation and phytoremediation, according to EPA.Illustration from Stormwater to Trees.
Trees have proven value in reducing runoff and mitigating the costs of stormwater management, but their innate ability to absorb and divert rainfall has been underutilized, according to the EPA.
Therefore a major focus of this section is how to design sites for successful planting. It offers strategies for dealing with impervious surfaces and compacted soils that can stunt tree growth and shorten trees’ lifespans. For instance, pavements can be supported by pillars, piles, and structural cells, allowing for large volumes of uncompacted soil below ground.
Section Three: Stormwater Management Systems with Trees
The next section goes into more detail on each of those strategies. It discusses pros and cons of each and design considerations in various locations and applications. It also provides illustrations that help the reader quickly grasp the concepts.
This is the meat of the brochure. There’s too much in this section to summarize, but you can quickly scan it.
Major subsections include: suspended pavement and structural cells; structural soil; stormwater tree pits; permeable pavements; forested bioswales; and green streets.
Section Four; Case Studies
The final section of Stormwater to Trees contains illustrated case studies from cities across the country. Several describe 10% reductions in peak flows, a percentage consistent with academic studies elsewhere.
While that may not sound huge, it’s important if stormwater is lapping at your doorstep during heavy rains. It’s also important to remember that stormwater management is just one of the many benefits of trees. They also help clean the air, reduce energy needs, raise property values, and mitigate urban heat-island effects.
Newly elected State Representative Charles Cunningham has introduced a bill aimed at restoring sand mines to productive use after operators cease production. Cunningham filed HB1093 in December and it was referred to the House Natural Resources Committee on 3/2/2023.
Aimed at Protecting Water Supply for 2 Million People
HB1093 amends Section 28A of the Texas Water Code. It applies to aggregate production operations (APOs) located within 1500 feet of the San Jacinto. It deals with the reclamation of such mines and ensure water-quality in the river(s) around them.
The goal is to reduce adverse water-quality impacts to the San Jacinto and Lake Houston which supply drinking water to more than 2 million people. Additional benefits will accrue to recreation, wildlife, and environmental safety.
Requirements in Bill
Before abandonment, the bill requires APOs to file a reclamation plan signed by a licensed engineer. Such a plan would typically include measures such as revegetation, erosion control, grading, soil stabilization, and backfilling. The plans must also address:
Removal of materials used in production, waste, structures, roads, equipment and railroads.
Slope stability for the walls of remaining detention ponds
Closure of waste disposal areas
Costs for all of the above
Financial assurance (such as a performance bond, typical in the construction industry) designed to enable cleanup without cost to taxpayers if the operator walks away from the site or declares bankruptcy.
While we need sand to make concrete, we need clean water even more.
Why We Need This Bill
Think these issues aren’t real? They’re all around us. See the pictures below taken recently.
Dredge at abandoned mine on North Houston Avenue in Humble.More abandoned equipment at same mine.Another abandoned sand mine in Humble. No grading of slopes or vegetation that retards erosion. Note commercial structures threatened by collapsing walls of pit.Abandoned mine on East Fork in Liberty Countyshould have had soil stabilized with vegetation.Another shot from same mine. Old structures, materials not removed.And another. There are no fences to keep children from playing on this abandoned dredge.At the same mine on May 3, 2021. Note two breaches in dikes sweeping sand down the East Fork.Excavator in abandoned mine on West Fork.Collapsing dike of West Fork mine.Abandoned mine (foreground) next to recreational facility on opposite side of West Forkat I-45.
Part of Sedimentation Problem
Lake Houston has lost 20,000 acre feet due to sedimentation and continues to lose on average 380 acre feet annually.
In the 1980s, only one or two small mines existed on the San Jacinto West Fork. Today, sand mines occupy more than 20 square miles in a 20 mile reach of the river between I-69 and I-45. And many empty their pits into the river.
An active mine empties one of its pits into the abandoned mine in the foreground which drains straight into the West Fork.
The montage below shows the effect of such issues on water quality where Spring and Cypress Creeks join the West Fork. The angles vary. But in each shot, the dirtier water comes from the West Fork. This is typical and easily visible on most days.
Water coming from area with mines typically appears siltier.
Cost of Dredging
To maintain the capacity of Lake Houston and the conveyance of its tributaries, the City of Houston and Army Corps have dredged almost continuously since Harvey. To date, they have removed almost 4 million cubic yards of sediment at a cost of $226 million.
From presentation by Stephen Costello, City of Houston Chief Recovery Officer.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/20210817-DJI_0349.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-03-03 19:17:032023-03-07 11:24:33Cunningham Sponsors Bill to Ensure Restoration of Abandoned Sand Mines
Part One began by talking about how, after every major natural disaster, FEMA sends in building-code experts to examine how structures performed and make recommendations for code changes to reduce future damage. It’s part of a process of continuous improvement that could/should make us all safer.
Part One ended with one of the most poignant stories I have ever heard. After a Cat 4 Hurricane struck Florida last year, a FEMA team was driving down a street littered with the debris of gutted homes and shattered lives. Mountains of waterlogged drywall, carpeting, furniture and cherished possessions lined both sides of the street waiting to be hauled away…just as it did in Houston after Harvey and Imelda.
Kingwood debris pile after Imelda.
But when the FEMA team got to the end of the street, they saw something that stunned them – a pristine home with nothing out front. It was actually the home on the street closest to the ocean. As they paused to marvel at the miracle, the homeowner drove up. They asked him the logical question, “Did you build above code requirements?”
“Not really,” said the homeowner. “I just built to what the code required.”
He went on to elaborate how the building inspector was a real stickler. “I thought he just had it in for me because I was a hippie. I really hated the guy.”
“What do you think of him now?” asked the FEMA employees. The homeowner extended his arms and made a bowing motion as if to praise and thank the man who had been such a thorn in his side.
Billions Saved
FEMA estimates that adoption of hazard-resistant building codes saved $32 billion during the last 20 years and could save another $132 billion by 2040. Not to mention saving a lot of heartbreak and misery.
So why are people so resistant to adopting higher building codes?
Resistance on Many Levels
Part Two of the presentation examined sources of resistance to adopting higher building codes. They used Louisiana’s attempt to increase freeboard factors as an example of the the types of resistance FEMA frequently encounters from various groups.
In engineering, freeboard is is the distance codes require you to build above the current estimated 100-year flood level.
The greater the freeboard, the safer you are.
But still, people found reasons not to increase the freeboard. The second presenter examined seven sources of resistance:
Perceived conflict between statewide minimum codes and local governments that may wish to adopt higher standards.
Uncertainty about where freeboard regulations had and hadn’t been adopted already.
Debate about whether the state or local authorities should establish standards.
Questions about why FEMA isn’t making the regulations at a national level.
Perceived lack of discounts in Risk Rating 2.0 national flood insurance premiums for structures elevated to meet higher freeboard requirements.
Concern about whether fill to elevate homes would make flooding worse.
Confusion over how building code officials and floodplain managers can collaborate.
All are valid concerns. But all can be overcome. Pretty easily, it turns out.
Answers readily exist for each of these issues. For example, with #6 (probably the most valid concern), communities have adopted standards to limit fill in areas where floodwater storage is a major concern.
For the other answers, see the entire presentation. The point I really want to make is about the pushback against proven practices that save lives and property.
Why Resist Changes that Avert Human Suffering?
As I watched the presentation, the image floating through my head was of the NTSB investigating a plane crash that killed hundreds of people. Imagine if the investigation found a defective engine part caused the catastrophe. Do you think manufacturers would resist upgrading the part?
It’s unthinkable. Who would board such an airplane? What aircraft manufacturer would even lobby against the change? The negative publicity would put them out of business.
But homebuilding and the development business are different. The industry has a million players, not a handful. A few bad actors can escape notice because:
The codes are so complex that few understand them.
Lobbyists frame discussion as “acceptable risk” vs. “unacceptable costs.”
Responsibility is shared among government regulators at many levels, their political masters, and private industry.
This creates an atmosphere of plausible deniability when disaster strikes. “We were just following regulations.” (Yeah, but who lobbied against them?)
Building Codes Like Seat Belts
Some readers may remember the battles to pass and enforce seat belt laws. Even though the federal government required manufacturers to install seat belts in all new cars starting in 1968, only 14% of Americans regularly used them at first. Adoption of state laws mandating usage was spotty. And when a Michigan state rep introduced a bill in the early 1980s that levied a fine for not buckling up, he received hate mail comparing him to Hitler. American’s love their freedom so much, they can even react negatively to efforts to protect them.
Only six municipalities in all counties shown here have adopted up-to-date building codes.
So when the next disaster strikes, let the finger pointing begin.
No wait! Let’s just get a bailout from FEMA!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/1/2023
2010 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/20230301-Screenshot-2023-03-01-at-10.33.27-AM.jpg?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=17461200adminadmin2023-03-01 11:01:492023-03-02 16:57:55Building-Code Pushback that Makes Disasters Worse
The Lake Houston Gates Project is moving closer to reality with breakthroughs on the benefit/cost ratio, funding and endorsements.
City of Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello provided updates on 2/27/23 at City Hall on the Lake Houston Gates Project. The wide-ranging, hour-long discussion covered several related topics. They included:
A critical path for construction
Dredging of the lake
Funding for gates and dredging
Several related engineering studies
A favorable ruling from FEMA on the Benefit-Cost Ratio
An endorsement to the area’s legislators by the Greater Houston Partnership.
Need For Gates
For those new to the area, the City of Houston has been pushing to add gates to the Lake Houston Dam ever since Harvey in 2017. Upstream, Lake Conroe’s gates can release 150,000 cubic feet per second (CFS). But Lake Houston’s can only release 10,000 CFS.
The disparity in discharge capacity complicates joint-reservoir-management and pre-release strategies designed to avoid flooding by reducing the water level in Lake Houston.
Lake Houston releases cannot keep up with Lake Conroe’s. And pre-releasing water from Lake Houston takes so long that storms can veer away during the lowering process, often resulting in wasted water. That’s an important consideration for a water-supply lake.
According to Martin and Costello, the gate project will:
• Serve as the first phase of a long-term effort to extend the life of the Dam • Enable the rapid lowering of lake levels in advance of a flood • Eliminate the need for a seasonal lowering of both Lake Houston and Lake Conroe • Provide potential water-rights savings • Protect an estimated 5,000 residential properties in the surrounding area • Yield an estimated half billion dollars in economic benefits during the life of the project
However, the City discarded that idea as “too risky” after further study. The engineering company cautioned the City that it would have a difficult time finding contractors willing to risk modifying a 70-year old concrete dam. The potential liability was just too great. So the City then revisited adding various numbers of tainter gates to the eastern, earthen portion of the dam.
Because tainter gates exceeded FEMA’s funding, the City had initially focused on crest gates. But after investigating the safety issues, the City decided to seek more funding for tainter gates instead.
Recommended location for new tainter gates is next to old ones, not farther east as I conjectured earlier.
The picture below is slightly wider and shows more of how both halves of the dam come together.
If funding comes through, new gates would go in the upper right along the earthen portion of the dam, next to the old gates.
Funding Needs
FEMA initially set aside $50 million for the gates. Plus Harris County committed $20 million in the 2018 Flood Bond to attract FEMA’s match. But the latest construction estimates show eleven tainter gates could cost between $200 and $250 million.
After engineering and environmental studies, only $68.3 million in funding remains. That includes an earmark secured by Congressman Dan Crenshaw. So the City is seeking another $150 million from the State of Texas. Martin and Costello have made weekly trips to Austin so far during this session to line up support from legislators, committee chairs, and the Texas Division of Emergency Management.
Social Benefits Improve Benefit/Cost Ratio
All this is suddenly possible because of a favorable ruling from FEMA on the benefit-cost ratio (BCR).
For years, Houston had struggled to get the BCR for the gate project above 1.0 (the point at which benefits exceed costs). Usually, FEMA strictly interprets benefits as “avoided damages to structures.”
But Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner and Costello met with FEMA to argue that the problem was much bigger than damaged structures.
As a result, FEMA allowed the City to add the value of “social benefits” to the BCR. Social benefits can include such things as avoiding lost wages when businesses are destroyed; transportation disruptions that reduce the region’s productivity; reducing negative impacts on student achievement when schools are disrupted; and more.
The social-benefit ruling covers a number of City projects, not just the gates. It should also benefit other areas, especially rural ones.
Said Costello, “The minute the social benefits came in, everything was great.” Instead of struggling to reach 1.0, the City is now far above it.
Greater Houston Partnership Endorsement
With that out of the way, the Greater Houston Partnership wrote a powerful letter to state legislators seeking their support for the gate project. See below.
The Partnership includes business leaders from 900 member companies in the 12-county Houston Region.
Dredging Update
While pressing ahead with the gates project, the City is also working on a long-term dredging plan for the lake and working with the SJRA on sedimentation and sand-trap pilot projects.
The lake has already lost more than 20,000 acre feet of capacity due to sedimentation. That worsens flooding. While the Federal Government supports efforts to improve Lake Houston now, the chances of getting more money in the future will be reduced – unless we can show that we’re at least keeping pace with annual sediment deposits.
Since Harvey, FEMA, the Army Corps, TWDB, and City of Houston have removed almost 4 million cubic yards of material from the lake at a cost of $226 million.
We have to prevent more sediment from coming downstream or dredge it after it gets here.
Stephen Costello, City of Houston Chief Recovery Officer
The City is currently lobbying for another $50 million for maintenance dredging to add to the money secured in the last legislative session by now-retired State Representative Dan Huberty. New Representative Charles Cunningham will reportedly now carry that banner forward along with State Senator Brandon Creighton.
Legislative News to Follow
March 10th is the last day to file bills in the Texas Legislature this year. Please visit the legislation page on ReduceFlooding.com for updates once bills are filed and start moving forward in Austin.
Thanks to all of our elected and appointed representatives who have pushed so hard on so many fronts for the last 2008 days to tie all the pieces of this complicated flood-mitigation puzzle together.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/27/2023
2008 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/20230227-Screenshot-2023-02-27-at-9.28.29-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=16791200adminadmin2023-02-27 21:45:512023-02-28 11:45:24Lake Houston Gates Project Moves Closer to Reality
The controversial new Royal Pines subdivision that flooded a neighbor four times in two months has finally built a stormwater detention basin.
The good news: The basin should capture water flowing from one direction toward the neighbor.
The bad news: The height of the berm around the pond could back up water from the opposite direction onto the neighbor’s property. The concentrated flow could also erode the earth over a natural gas pipeline.
Drainage Now Concentrated Over Pipeline
The pipeline is buried only 36″ deep along the silt fence in the photo below. So any floodwater coming from the west (right) will now be concentrated directly over the pipeline.
Water used to converge from both east and west toward a natural depression in the middle of the new development. But contractors changed the natural grade, confusing the situation.
Looking south from over White Oak Creek toward the new 6.3-acre detention pond in the NW corner of Royal Pines. Water drains toward camera.
The drainage impact analysis for Royal Pines below shows that 11.6 acres outlined in purple (labeled as OFF1, for offsite area #1) drains through the larger 49.5 acre area that contains detention Pond 1 shown in the upper left. The plans show a channel running about a quarter of the way down the left border where the silt fence now is, then mysteriously stopping.
When I first saw the plans, I assumed the water in that channel would empty into the pond. But no inlets are installed at that location. At least not yet even though others are installed elsewhere.) See below and above.
Looking west toward neighborhood that flooded from development. No inletscome from that direction.
Instead, water coming from the west will meet a wall approximately 8 feet high.
The wall of the detention pond. This area used to slope down toward the trees in the background.Now you can barely see them.
The berm forms a dam against any water coming from the west (behind the camera position). That includes floodwaters from White Oak Creek.
So where will the stormwater go? Instead of spreading out, it will be squeezed between the berm and homeowners. That has the potential to cause more flooding.
The analysis claims the development will have no adverse impact either up- or downstream. However, during a five-year rain in January, the level of White Oak Creek came up much higher than a five-year flood.
What’s on the ground counts for more than what’s on paper.
Another Danger Lurks 36″ Down
But there’s potentially an even bigger danger. A natural gas pipeline is buried next to that silt fence that borders homes along the western edge of the detention pond. Erosion from all that concentrated water rushing over the pipeline could expose it, just as it exposed another pipeline 1.5 miles away.
The man behind the mine, Prabhakar Guniganti, also owns or owned Royal Pines. His name shows up on the general plan, although the Montgomery County tax rolls show a company called TC LB Royal Pines LP now owns the property. It’s not clear if there’s a connection between Guniganti and the Royal Pines Limited Partnership.
Guniganti has a history of corporate shell games. After the Attorney General sued him, ownership of his mine changed hands so many times that the AG had to add five shell companies to the lawsuit. The AG also added Guniganti as an individual and as a director of the companies/partnerships to the lawsuit. Because of all the delays, the case still has not gone to trial.
This does not inspire confidence. Especially among homeowners who may be flooded, but don’t have the State’s deep pockets.
When I and homeowners talked to Montgomery County Engineering last week, the developer did not yet have a construction permit for the pond. The county said only that if any changes become necessary, they will be at the developer’s expense.
Just a reminder. Section 11.086 of the Texas Water Code states, “No person may divert … the natural flow of surface waters in this state, or permit a diversion to continue, in a manner that damages the property of another…”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 2/25/2023
2006 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
