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Northpark Entry Plan Balances Flood Mitigation, Saving Trees, Cost

Social media has been abuzz this week about the Northpark Drive entry to Kingwood. As contractors removed trees from the north side of the road to make room for a detention pond, many people complained.

But it’s important to remember why we’re improving Northpark: to accommodate increased traffic and to create a reliable, all-weather evacuation route. In that regard, the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (LHRA) must balance three conflicting needs: flood mitigation, saving trees and cost. Let’s look at how each relates to the objectives.

Reliable, All-Weather Evacuation Route

During Harvey, Hamblen Road, Kingwood Drive and Northpark were all blocked by rising floodwaters. That forced many people to try to snake out of Kingwood through Porter…if they could get there. Many couldn’t.

For decades, we’ve also worried about the possibility of a train disaster that could block off Kingwood’s exits. The longer trains that Union Pacific runs now can block multiple exits simultaneously. The longest trains stretch for more than three miles. And if there were a derailment or toxic spill, it would be difficult getting people to safety.

Raising the elevation of Northpark between Bens Branch and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch eliminates the first problem. And building the bridge over the tracks at 494 eliminates the second.

Finally, widening the road will enable more vehicles to evacuate faster.

Flood-Mitigation Enhancements

All that extra concrete to expand the road, however, reduces rainwater infiltration and increases runoff. To keep the road from flooding, engineers calculated they needed 22 acre feet of stormwater detention capacity near US59.

The solution: build two permanent ponds, one each on the north and south sides of 59 where the groves of trees were. TxDoT already owned the land. So it was available at no cost.

*Looking N toward Kroger Center. Clearing for N pond completed. Clearing for S pond (bottom right) begins next week.*

Water will permanently fill the ponds, just like those at Kingwood Drive. The difference between the normal water surface elevation and the lip of the ponds will equal 22 acre feet. The size of the ponds will keep that gap at an aesthetically pleasing level.

*Looking S*. *Note the protective fencing around the remaining trees. Additional trees may be stored temporarily in the foreground.*

Said another way, the ponds will look like decorative enhancements but serve a vital purpose that few realize.

The outline you see in the photo below will match the perimeter of the pond.

*No more trees will be cut for this pond. The area cleared represents the final outline of the pond.*

The layout below shows how the ponds should look when completed.

*For a more legible, high-res version, click here.*

Saving Trees

According to Ralph De Leon, project manager, “Enough trees will remain to form a pleasing backdrop for the pond, screen the visually noisy area behind them, and create a good first impression for visitors.”

*From 30 feet, you can barely see the shopping center behind the trees. From ground level, it will be completely screened.*

It’s important to remember that when KSA revised the Kingwood entries after TxDoT widened 59, many people wanted ponds at Northpark. They complained that KSA was neglecting Northpark compared to Kingwood Drive.

Many trees are being transplanted. But that’s an expensive proposition; the trees have grown since LHRA first prepared estimates two years ago.

“We’ve already identified the trees that will be saved,” De Leon continued. “Some will move to their permanent location immediately. Others will be stored temporarily at staging locations until the road construction gets further along. Then they’ll be moved to their permanent positions.”

The landscape architects, contractor, and LHRA are evaluating each tree individually. Their objective is to save as many as possible. But dollars pose a constraint.

Cost Limitations

De Leon also says “The cost to move each tree is roughly $11,000. We can’t afford to move the truly huge trees. They cost up to $100,000 per tree. And we just don’t have a budget for those.”

*Machines like these will move trees that range from 4″ to 17″ in diameter.* *Photo courtesy of Davey Tree Company*.

To maximize aesthetics, the Redevelopment Authority will relocate a mix of trees, such as oaks and pines.

*The trees that will move have already been inventoried and tagged.*

Update on Water-Line and Utility Conflicts

In my last Northpark post, I pointed out two conflicts holding up construction of the median farther east – one with a water line to a new church near Russell-Palmer Road and a second with CenterPoint.

The City of Houston has agreed to let the Redevelopment Authority’s contractor design a workaround for the water line that interfered with the placement of box culverts. Contractors left a gap big enough for two sections of culvert and a coffer dam to keep dirt from collapsing into the hole.

Because the culvert is tongue-in-groove, contractors also left enough room for a collar. That will allow the two new sections to slide into place. It will also prevent leaks in any gap that remains.

Regarding the CenterPoint gas line running down the center of the ditch at different depths, CenterPoint decided to move the whole line out of the culvert to the south side of the road. Inbound drivers may notice long lengths of welded blue pipe stacked up between Russell-Palmer and Kings Mill. That’s what that is for.

Next Steps

Contractors will start removing trees for the south entry pond at 59 during the week of 9/24/23. Here is the latest revised schedule. Check back often for more updates as they happen.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/23/23

2216 Days since Hurricane Harvey

GIS Data Reveals Likely Source of NE Houston Flooding Unrelated to Historic Disinvestment

In northeast Houston, where residents and activists frequently chant “historic disinvestment,” I accidentally stumbled onto a much more likely cause of the frequent flooding than systemic racism. It happened while browsing a GIS database with hundreds of layers containing a broad range of information. The instant I saw it, it unlocked a mystery. Tumblers suddenly aligned that unlocked the mystery. But let’s start this story with accusations that made no sense to me.

Accusations of Systemic Racism Not Supported by Spending Data

Three years ago, I joined the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force. Ever since, I have heard a constant drumbeat of “historic disinvestment” by many members who believe they are victims of systemic racism by Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD).

They claim that they aren’t getting their fair share of flood-mitigation funds when, in fact, financial analysis reveals the opposite. They get the lion’s share.

*LMI vs. Non-LMI flood-mitigation funding through Q3 2021*.

Eight watersheds with a majority of low-to-moderate income residents have received almost two thirds of the funding going back to 2000. That’s out of a total of 23 watersheds. The money has flowed to damage – as it should.

Many people, however, don’t believe that. The loudest complaints have come from the Northeast Action Collective. They waged a battle to remove flood-control executives from office who were working tirelessly on their behalf.

Regardless, falsehoods repeated often enough eventually rose to the level of “accepted truth.” Even experts can be fooled. Jim Blackburn, the renowned professor of engineering at Rice, repeated the “historic disinvestment” claim without presenting any proof in a Houston Chronicle story last week.

He claimed residents of Halls and Greens Bayou watersheds weren’t getting their “fair share” of flood mitigation money. In fact, Greens Bayou ranks #2 in terms of money received. Only Brays Bayou has received more.

*Spending by Watershed from 2000 through 2023Q1. Source: Harris County Flood Control District via FOIA request.*

And tiny Halls Bayou ranks #2 in spending per capita. Together, the two bayous have received more than $390 million to date.

And they could soon receive another $466 million out of the $750 million that the GLO and HUD recently granted Harris County for flood mitigation. If HUD approves the recommended projects totaling $466 million, Halls and Greens will have received $856 million – far more than any other watershed. (Technically Halls is a sub-watershed of Greens, but HCFCD tracks spending as if it were separate.) This is hardly historic disinvestment.

More Likely Cause of Flooding Overlooked by Critics Crying Racism

Today, while learning a new (to me) geographic information system, I randomly clicked on a “wetland” layer. Boom! Guess where the largest concentration of wetlands in Harris County is. The northeast!

*Note Lake Houston in the upper right, once home to untold acres of wetlands before the dam was built in the 1950s.*

As a reminder of what these wetlands once looked like, see the photos of Emily Murphy who kayaks along the shores of Lake Houston.

Emily Murphy wetland photo by Lake Houston — *Photo Courtesy of Emily Murphy*

Regulations discourage building in wetlands for good reasons. Water collects there. The soil is less permeable. They are low, poorly drained, and unstable.

In addition, USGS points out the many positive benefits of wetlands. “Wetlands provide habitat for thousands of species of aquatic and terrestrial plants and animals. Wetlands are valuable for flood protection, water quality improvement, shoreline erosion control, natural products, recreation, and aesthetics.”

But because they’re cheap land and available, some less-than-scrupulous developers often try to build in them. I’m told by engineers I trust that that has always been the case and always will be.

Back in the 1950s, farms and ranches occupied most of the northeast Houston area. Here’s what it looked like then.

*Note the San Jacinto River in the upper right in this 1953 pre-Lake Houston aerial image from Google Earth.*

And here’s what the same area looks like today.

*Note the presence of Lake Houston in the upper right in this 2022 image.*

There are still big undeveloped areas in the image above. But many developments have also filled in large parts of the northeast that were once wetlands in the 1950s image.

Dangers of Building Over Wetlands

According to USGS, “Wetlands are transitional areas, sandwiched between permanently flooded deepwater environments and well-drained uplands, where the water table is usually at or near the surface or the land… The single feature that most wetlands share is soil or substrate that is at least periodically saturated with or covered by water.”

Wetlands are almost always terrible places to build houses.

Four years ago, I posted about the disadvantages of building over wetlands. Pictures of the Woodridge Village property, then under development by Perry Homes, dramatized how unstable the soils were. Dangers of building over wetlands include shifting slabs, cracked driveways, mold, erosion, clogged storm drains, flooding and more.

Unsuspecting buyers of former wetlands can literally get sucked in by low prices. Seventy years later, the original builders and buyers are long gone. And pre-digital soil samples and drainage analyses (if they were ever done) have long since disappeared into the fog of history or a dusty warehouse.

Wetland-mitigation banks near a development should raise red flags to buyers today. There’s one on the northeast corner of Beltway 8 along, you guessed it, Greens Bayou. There are also two in Colony Ridge: the Houston-Conroe and Tarkington Bayou Mitigation Banks.

In conclusion…

Today’s residents in such areas pay for previous owners’ lack of knowledge – not because of historic disinvestment.

I’m not saying early owners didn’t exercise due diligence. We just didn’t know then what we know now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/23

2215 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

History of Heartbreak: A Colony Ridge Chronicle

Updated 3/7/26 – I wrote my first post about Colony Ridge in May 2020. Since then, I have written more than 80 about the controversial, Liberty County colonia that’s now 50% larger than Manhattan. Virtually all of them cover aspects of drainage, wetlands and flooding, as well as the development’s impact on people, the environment and surrounding areas.

The articles also include stories on surrounding developments by the same developer, but operating under different names. But you do not need those to support the 50% larger calculation above.

I’m listing all of my Colony-Ridge-related stories here to make them easier for readers to find.

Colonia Now Drawing National Attention

During the past 3+ years, the growth of Colony Ridge, an unincorporated development, has overwhelmed smaller incorporated areas around it such as Plum Grove and Cleveland.

As a result, fast-growing Colony Ridge has attracted national attention by numerous journalists, not all of it welcomed by the developer. My focus has been almost exclusively on flooding, drainage and water quality issues. Other journalists have focused on crime, cartels, drugs, illegal immigration, overwhelmed schools, predatory lending practices, evictions, the marketing practices of the developer and more.

Here is a list of the drainage related articles. I’ve also taken thousands of pictures – far too many to insert them all here. But I have included a few. See more when you follow the links below.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/2023 and updated on 3/7/26

2213 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Colony Ridge Now 50 Percent Bigger than Manhattan

Recent expansion of the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County means that the controversial colonia is now 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.

By advertising exclusively to Hispanics under the name Terrenos Houston (translation: Houston Land), the developer has largely managed to fly under the radar of regulators as it rapidly expands.

Comparison Of Areas in Google Earth

Colony Ridge now occupies approximately 34.5 square miles. The developer also owns additional land in surrounding areas not yet under development or being developed under different names. But I have NOT counted those areas in this comparison.

*Green area beneath clouds in top center has been cleared since this satellite image.*

In contrast, Google Earth shows that the island of Manhattan occupies 22.8 square miles.

That means Colony Ridge is 51% larger than Manhattan. Yet few people have ever heard of Colony Ridge. As proud Texans, we need to change that.

Other Comparisons of Manhattan and Colony Ridge

Population

Of course, Manhattan still has the population edge over Colony Ridge: 1.6 million vs. something less. The exact population of Colony Ridge is unknown because many undocumented aliens live there who avoided the last census.

Commerce

And…

While Manhattan is a center of world commerce, Colony Ridge has a dollar store and an ice machine.

So Colony Ridge has some catching up to do in the “commerce” department.

Car Repair

Many people in Manhattan don’t bother to own cars, so repair places are few and far between.

But people need vehicles to get around in Colony Ridge; there is no public transit. Accordingly, the development has far more shade-tree mechanics.

And the parking is much easier and cheaper in Colony Ridge than Manhattan.

*How many people in Manhattan can park 30 cars in their yard while they work on them?*

Scenic Rivers

Manhattan is surrounded by iconic rivers. Colony Ridge has rivers of mud. But at least kids can play soccer in them during droughts.

*River of mud in one small part of Colony Ridge*

Trash

Manhattan is famous for its trash. In fact, trash there has helped decide mayoral elections going back decades. Colony Ridge doesn’t have a mayor, so trash is rarely an issue.

Advantage Colony Ridge…if you’re a hoarder.

Home Values

Manhattan is also famous for high-priced real estate. Colony Ridge is famous for its low-priced real estate. Advantage: Colony Ridge on that score. No wonder it’s growing so fast!

*Tarps are popular roof alternatives in Colony Ridge. They hold down home repair costs.*

That’s important. Look at the angle on the left front corner of the home above.

Parking Your Home

Manhattan has absolutely no place to park your home. However, Colony Ridge has thousands of acres. Advantage Colony Ridge…again!

*Colony Ridge is the world’s largest trailer park.*

Yes, in Colony Ridge, Liberty County has something to write home about.

Access

Manhattan is famous for its bridges and tunnels. So is Colony Ridge. This bridge on FM1010 has been washed out for six years.

*Hurricane Harvey washed out the FM1010 bridge downstream from the main Colony Ridge drainage ditch.*

I’d count this one a toss up, however. Why? It still can take hours to get into and out of BOTH Manhattan AND Colony Ridge.

Diversity

Manhattan is widely regarded as a cross-roads of the world and hosts the United Nations.

Colony Ridge IS the united nations…of South America, Central America, and Mexico in Liberty County.

Regardless, I’d have to give the diversity advantage to Manhattan. I don’t see the Colony Ridge developer taking any initiative to reach out to Poles, Jews, Italians, Irish, Asians, Germans, Czechs, Scandinavians, Indians, Africans or other ethnicities.

Fire Hydrants

In Manhattan, people are always tripping over fire hydrants and most buildings are sprinklered.

In Colony Ridge, though, they’ve learned to make do without all those trip hazards that can drive up the developer’s costs. Colony Ridge has a grand total of 59 hydrants in an area 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.

Hotel Costs

A hotel room in Manhattan can easily cost hundreds of dollars per night. But people can pitch tents in Colony Ridge and avoid all those pesky mini-bar fees while they work out their business deals.

Colony Ridge hotel — *Colony Ridge Hotel*

Plus, you’ll see waaaay more stars in Colony Ridge. Advantage: Liberty County.

Write Your Favorite Travel Guide

Surely everyone can agree that Colony Ridge deserves a place in all of the state’s travel guides. Colony Ridge is truly a tribute to what lack of regulation and enforcement can produce.

Let’s start a campaign to get it noticed. Write Fodors, National Geographic, TxDoT, Texas Highways, and Texas Monthly.

We have something unique in Colony Ridge that is a tribute to Texas ingenuity – a place that welcomes people without papers and makes entrepreneurs rich. Let’s put it on the tourist maps and focus the world’s attention on a true Texas marvel.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2023

2210 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News

Noon, September 16, 2023 – An Associated Press headline this morning trumpeted “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England.” I immediately went to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website to see the most current conditions. Lee had been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone with 75 mph winds.

But it still covers a lot of territory. As of noon, Lee is producing 1-2 foot storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds in portions of Maine. NHC gave the northeastern tip of Maine a 5-15% chance of flash flooding. They predict 1-4 inches of rain over portions of the state that receive rain, though the extreme eastern tip may get up to 6 inches.

*Satellite image shows Lee’s influence stretching from maritime Canada to New Jersey.*

Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?

Next, I went to NHC’s Climatology page to see how unusual hurricanes are in New England. Because of the colder waters, they’re certainly not as frequent as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But they’re also not unusual as you can clearly see from the image below. It shows hurricane tracks going back to 1851.

*Red lines show hurricanes with the winds from 64-90 mph.*

Next, I looked at the points of origin for Atlantic storms in the 10-day period each season from Sept. 11 – 20.

*Going back to 1851, we can see that dozens of storms have followed Lee’s path .*

In fact, during September, there’s at least a 70% annual chance that a hurricane will affect this region (see below).

*Lee’s track is THE most common for named storms in the Atlantic during September (red area).*

Data goes from 1944 to 2020, but is normalized for 100 years. 1944 was the year NOAA started tracking hurricanes with aircraft.

The AP article related higher than normal sea surface temperatures to BOTH climate change and the risk of being affected by a hurricane in New England. It’s true that temperatures ARE above average off the New England coast this year. But it’s also true that temperatures cycle above and below an “average.” You can’t assume that sea surface temperatures ALWAYS increase.

This 28-second animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 2002-2011 shows how temperatures vary monthly and annually around the world as well as off the coast of New England.

*Starting point of animation is August 2002. Note below-normal sea-surface temps off New England coast.*

During the decade covered by the animation, SSTs varied from above to below average five times by my count.

It’s fair to relate one stronger than normal hurricane to higher than normal sea surface temperatures. But it’s not valid to assume that hurricanes will continue to get stronger when sea surface temperatures decrease.

The Curse of Data Truncation

And that brings me to my gripe – data truncation in reporting. “Truncation” means “cutting short,” for instance, when you pick start or stop points in an analysis to prove the trend you allege.

Example: you point to above-normal SSTs (this year) and one waning post-tropical storm. Then you conclude that “climate change could bring more monster storms like Lee.”

The implication: climate change is linear and temperatures are going straight up. Therefore, we can expect more monster storms in New England – where Lee will not even make landfall.

Reporting Turned into Advocacy

AP is a great news organization. But on the issue of climate uncertainty, they have crossed the line between reporting and advocacy. AP even admits it.

To their credit, in 2022, AP announced “a sweeping climate change initiative.” They hired 20 additional journalists to supplement existing staff already dedicated to covering climate change. Their mission: “to infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news…”

To help finance its climate coverage, AP accepts backing from several foundations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, which admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”

I’m not saying that AP or the Rockefeller Foundation deliberately misled people to further an agenda.

However, I can promise you that writers write about what clients want them to write about. And if they don’t, well, hundreds of other writers are lined up ready to take their jobs.

This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s just the way the world works.

Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation

Everyone should read critically and consult multiple sources. Triangulate on the truth. Had you read someone else’s coverage, you would have reached totally different conclusions. In that regard, I note several stories posted AFTER AP’s story on Lee that did not even mention climate change once. See CNN, CBS, New York Times, NBC, Reuters, USA Today, or Fox, for instance.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2023

2209 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Spring Creek Dams Facing Hurdles

The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA), which is managing a feasibility study on two Spring Creek dams, has run into some unexpected hurdles. They involve the benefit-cost ratio and competing uses for the land. Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager, updated ReduceFlooding on the status of the project.

Project Location Near Montgomery

Harris County Flood Control District, five municipal utility districts, the City of Humble, and the Texas Water Development board are also involved in this project. The dams could reportedly reduce flood levels up to half a foot for 40 miles downstream.

*The proposed Spring Creek Flood Control Dams would lie in far northeastern Waller County, a few miles west of Magnolia in Montgomery County.*

Second Time Around for Spring Creek Dams

The SJRA first recognized the flood mitigation benefits of dams in the Spring Creek watershed back in 1985. But ironically, while the land could have been bought for a song back then, the projects failed to achieve favorable benefit-cost ratios because so few people lived in the then-rural area.

Fast forward 32 years to Hurricane Harvey when more than 10,000 structures downstream flooded. Experts identified more upstream stormwater-detention as one of the top three priorities for flood mitigation.

When I asked Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager about the status of the dams, he had this to say. “We’re still working on the feasibility study. We ran into a couple hurdles when we started digging further into the proposed reservoirs.”

Benefit-Cost Ratio

What kind of hurdles? “First, after modeling was updated as part of the study, the benefit/cost ratios came out lower than was previously estimated as part of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan,” said Barrett.

“I think we have a solution for this issue,” he said. “Once we optimized dam sizes and incorporated ‘social benefits’ (which the Federal Government now will consider) into the calculations, the BCRs came out at 1.88 and 2.03 for the two reservoirs.” That means the benefits exceed the costs, a crucial hurdle.

“Because of their costs, the reservoirs would almost certainly rely on some level of Federal participation for construction.”
Matt Barrett, PE

Competing Uses for Land

“The other issue,” Barrett continued, “is that each planned reservoir site is also the site of another planned development, which was not identified until we got into the feasibility study.”

A residential/commercial development is planned for the Birch Creek reservoir site, and a large solar farm for the Walnut Creek site.

Barrett said, “No ground has been broken on the former, and I would like to work with the developers to see if we can come up with a scenario where both projects could exist. Construction HAS begun at the solar farm site, and we are coordinating to determine what options there might be for future coexistence at the site.”

Funding Partners Will Determine Path Forward, Timetable

“We are currently scheduling meetings with elected officials to present the project and its challenges,” said Barrett. “We want to get their input. Our goal is to get back together with our funding partners likely early next month to determine our path forward.

“The draft report should be completed by April next year, but that is subject to change. We are behind schedule due to the challenges experienced.”

Project Will Ultimately Depend on Several Factors

Barrett concluded, “Whether the reservoirs ultimately get built will be based on the results of the study and whether there is an entity willing to champion the project through design and construction and ultimately own and take responsibility for operations and maintenance of one or both reservoirs.”

Alternative Possibilities

The SJRA is not actively looking at alternative reservoir sites. However, SJRA and its partners have discussed it. “If we determine the hurdles at the two proposed sites make those sites infeasible, we could consider other sites,” said Barrett. “That said, we selected those two sites because they seemed the most promising. Other sites may not pan out for other reasons. One potential alternative is to look at several smaller detention sites.”

For More Information

See these previous posts on the projects:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/15/2023

2208 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Proposes 11.5% Budget Increase

Harris County’s Office of Management and Budget proposed an 11.5% budget increase during the Commissioners Court special meeting held on September 12, 2023. See below.

*Proposed on 9/12/2023, but not yet approved.*

Flood Control Maintenance Increase

If adopted, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) would receive an $11.8 million increase from tax revenue for Maintenance and Operations spending – up 10.4% from FY2022.

Given the number of new capital projects, such as stormwater detention basins that Flood Control has created in the last year, that increase seems reasonable. The number of acres that HCFCD needs to maintain steadily increases as it builds new assets.

*Acres of infrastructure needing maintenance has almost doubled since 2000. Source: HCFCD Asset Management Presentation*

HCFCD now manages 2,500 miles of channels, more than 260 detention basins, 2 levee systems, 3 mitigation banks, and more than 3,200 buyout lots.

Two-thirds of Flood Control’s infrastructure was constructed before 1984 and much of it needs rehabilitation. The District has identified 160 assets with defects, 117 with blockages or conveyance issues, and 215 where vegetation requires serious attention.

As with anything, deferring maintenance too long can lead to failure. Then reconstruction costs can greatly exceed repair costs.

Flood Control Debt-Service Increase

Flood Control also shows an increase in its proposed tax rate to handle debt service – 8.2%. This makes sense as we keep borrowing more and more money against the $2.5 billion bond that voters authorized in 2018.

It could take decades to pay off the interest on money borrowed this year. And next year, we’ll borrow more. The total interest payments increase over time as borrowing accumulates. High interest rates like we have now can increase the total need even more.

Partner Contributions Help Offset Debt-Service, But Are Dropping

The $2.5 billion bond actually identified $5 billion worth of projects. A portion of the original $2.5 B was designated as local-match money to attract partner funding. So for every project, roughly half of the total cost was supposed to be local dollars (tax revenue and/or borrowing). The other half was supposed to have come from partners, such as FEMA, HUD, and the State.

That said, partner funding never has come close to 50%. Q2 of 2020 came the closest at 41%. But the percentage has also dipped as low as 14% recently. Since the start of the bond, partner dollars have comprised 30% of all spending.

Partner spending in recent quarters has declined significantly. Through 22Q1, partner spending averaged $28.4 million per quarter. Since then, the quarterly total has averaged only $11.5 million. That’s a 59% decrease.

*Through 22Q1, partner funding ranged between $20-45 million. Since then it hasn’t exceeded $20 million.*

To make up for the lack of projected partner funds, HCFCD has had to spend more County/Bond dollars to keep projects moving. And it has done so in a period of high interest rates.

*Note how drops in partner spending often trigger spikes in County spending.*

As partner funds have fallen off in recent months, so has the overall level of HCFCD spending.

*Data for this and all tables/graphs obtained from HCFCD via multiple FOIA requests.*

Here’s the data which these graphs reflect. This particular series starts with the approval of the flood bond in late 2018.

Is It a Fair Budget Increase?

That depends on whether you see any flood-mitigation efforts that benefit you. If your area is getting projects, the answer is yes. But if not, you probably wouldn’t be happy with a 1% increase. And out of the $1.5 billion spent to date, precious little has been spent in the San Jacinto watershed.

Regardless, when setting budgets, we must consider dozens of different factors, not the least of which is partner funding. It can extend bond dollars. And consider this.

The $750 million in HUD funds recently received by the County come with “use-it-or-lose-it” deadlines attached. HCFCD had a giant meeting with contractors last week to discuss such issues.

If we can use the HUD money to accelerate construction and preserve bond dollars, we might have enough money to complete all the projects in the bond.

Conversely, with a shortfall in the partnership percentage, more county dollars will go toward projects in low income neighborhoods. That may leave no money for projects in affluent neighborhoods before we burn through the bond funds.

At the very least, I say we need to beef up the HCFCD staff applying for grants. I’ll bet we can all agree on that.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2023

2207 Days since Hurricane Harvey.

TWDB Wants Your Input on Nature-Based Flood-Mitigation Solutions

Reprinted with minor edits from an article posted by the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) on 9/11/2023 – Flooding is the most common and deadly disaster in the state. It has plagued Texans for generations, costing billions in property damage—and worse, loss of lives. So, flood mitigation is at the top of the list when it comes to addressing the most challenging water issues across the 269,000 square miles of Texas.

2018 NOAA Study Revealed Rainfall Assumptions Inadequate

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a study in 2018 revealing that rainfall values in some parts of Texas previously classified as 100-year events are now categorized as much more frequent 25-year events.

Varied topography and proximity to the Gulf of Mexico have always played a significant role in the state’s flood events. So has the population in Texas; it surpassed 30 million last year. according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Recent exponential growth, coupled with the already complex landscape, necessitates more forward-thinking flood planning and coordination. For instance…

We need to consider how natural features in new developments and infrastructure projects can work to our benefit to reduce flood risks.
TWDB

Participate in Online Survey

To help address flood issues across the state, TWDB is conducting an online survey now through September 29. Purpose: to collect input on the use of nature-based solutions to mitigate flood risk. Responses will help develop a guidance manual for communities seeking to implement these projects.

Nature-based solutions are broad, ranging from detention and retention ponds to preservation of natural features, such as floodplains and wetlands, or may even include roadside ditches with nature-based components. Sometimes, projects designed to improve water quality or intended to provide other environmental benefits can also work to mitigate flooding.

“The work that we’re doing is from a lens of flood mitigation. But really, there are likely greater benefits for water quality, environmental enhancement, and even for public recreation and enjoyment,” said Saul Nuccitelli, the TWDB’s Director of Flood Science and Community Assistance. “We’re looking to try to integrate and connect those project benefits and encourage folks who are doing flood work to seek out ways to incorporate nature-based components into their projects.”

Examples of Nature-Based Solutions

Nature-based solutions often include community benefits:

Nature-based solutions can often provide benefits to the community while serving as flood-mitigation strategies. The Humble-Kingwood area has numerous examples of flood-mitigation solutions that improve quality of life. For example, the 100+ mile Kingwood trail network, East End Park, Creekwood Nature Preserve, River Grove Park, and the Spring Creek Nature Trail are hugely popular community amenities that reduce flood risk.

188-acre East End Park attracts more than 100,000 visitors per year. It contains 5 miles of trails weaving through meadows, forests and wetlands that reduce flood risk while enhancing quality of life for people and animals.

Goal of Survey: ID Sustainable Building Blocks for Growth

The TWDB’s survey will capture examples of projects and programs using nature-based solutions with flood mitigation benefits. TWDB wants to learn about solutions in the varying ecoregions across Texas.

The goal of the guidance manual is to make practical case studies of projects, incentive program concepts, and regulatory templates available to community officials, decision-makers, and other practitioners. Many are interested in nature-based solutions as value-added alternatives to traditional flood infrastructure.

“If you find ways to incorporate nature-based solutions, it doesn’t mean people need to stay out of it all the time,” said Nuccitelli. “For example, you may have an area that’s wetland mitigation or wetland banking, so you may want to minimize how much traffic goes through it or what goes on there, but to the extent that you can include recreational activities associated with a project, urban economic benefit and utilizing nature can be somewhat synergistic.”

Reducing Runoff up to 5X

According to the Environmental Protection Agency, when 10 to 20 percent of a watershed is covered by impervious surfaces like roads or parking lots, runoff doubles. If impervious surfaces cover 100 percent of a watershed, the runoff is five times that of a forested area, which significantly increases the potential for flooding.

Incorporating nature-based solutions into a new project could potentially help manage runoff from future growth. For example, identifying and preserving healthy stands of trees or wetlands to utilize those existing natural features as amenities, such as a pocket park or an area of trees next to homes.

Data Will Ultimately Help Build/Fund Community Resources

By developing a guidance manual, the TWDB aims to

1) Share data and information about the benefits of nature-based solutions that could then empower communities to adopt them

2) Provide tools, research, case studies, incentive program concepts, and example ordinances—anything that a community may use as a resource if it’s interested in pursuing these solutions

3) Share details about funding opportunities and grant applications for these types of projects.

“That would be a big success if communities could take what we’re developing within the guidance manual to further encourage or enhance nature-based solutions,” said Nuccitelli.

Once the survey responses are compiled and the guidance manual is developed, the TWDB plans to release the draft in the summer of 2024 for public input.

For More Information

To learn more about nature-based solutions for flood mitigation in Texas, visit the TWDB website. To take the survey, click here. It takes about 15 minutes, but is a very thought-provoking.

See more TWDB articles about flood mitigation posted in Flood.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2023 based on a TWDB article

2206 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Worse than Harvey, Libyan Flood Kills Thousands

4PM Tuesday 9/12/2023 – A Libyan flood in Derna (also spelled Darnah) killed thousands and authorities say more than 10,000 are missing.

At this hour, exact numbers are hard to come by as large areas are still cut off from rescue workers and reporters. But to put those estimates in perspective, Harvey killed 36 in Harris County.

The Cause: Months of Rain Fall in Day

Torrential rains from Mediterranean storm Daniel burst two dams, wiped out four bridges and flooded large areas of Derna. The flash floods swept homes, bodies and vehicles into the sea while knocking out communications in large parts of the area.

Daniel dumped months of rain in one day on a large swath of northern Libya.

Libya is normally one of the driest countries in the world. The Sahara dominates most of the country’s climate. But the Mediterranean also influences rainfall along the northern coast.

Wikipedia says the annual rainfall in Derna is around 11 inches. But CNN reported that in Derna, eight months worth of rain fell in one day.

In Al Bayda, about 50 miles west, Libya’s National Meteorological Centre said that 16 inches of rain fell between 10 Sep 8am and 11 Sep 8am, a new rainfall record.

Weather Spark shows that average precipitation in Derna during September amounts to less than an inch. And even in the wettest years, Derna receives at most 4 inches per month.

*Average September Rainfall in Darnah equals .2 inches,* Courtesy of Weather Spark.

Weather Spark also indicates that Derna receives rainfall on less than one day in an average September.

Terrain Funneled Floodwater Toward City

Derna lies along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, at the end of a long, narrow, natural valley, called a wadi, which is dry for much of the year.

*New York Times image compiled from Google Earth*

As the city was inundated by Daniel, which made landfall in Libya on Sunday night, the wadi funneled rushing water into the center of the city. Riverbanks swelled, bridges were washed out and two dams farther up the wadi burst, adding their waters to the deluge.

Tropical-like storms rarely happen in the Mediterranean, but they do happen occasionally. And when they do, meteorologists call them “Medicanes,” short for Mediterranean hurricanes.

World and Social Media Focus on Flood

YouTube is awash in videos from the Derna flood.

NBC reported that a quarter of the city of 125,000 people was destroyed.

This CBS story shows pictures of the incredible destruction. This flood didn’t invade homes slowly, but leave them standing. It pummeled homes and whole neighborhoods.

Google “flood Derna Libya” to find hundreds of links and the latest news. Stories are being updated almost hourly.

Parallels With Harvey

Perusing many of those stories revealed several parallels with Hurricane Harvey which struck the Houston area in 2017.

Rainfall Records

Both areas encountered record rainfalls. Harvey dumped far more rain than Daniel. But then Daniel’s rainfall fell over a much drier area where infrastructure was designed to handle smaller amounts. Still, both were records, and both overwhelmed local infrastructure with unexpectedly high volumes.

Dam Concerns

Both Houston and Derna lay downstream from dams. During Harvey, the SJRA cited fear of failure of the Lake Conroe Dam as the reason for its massive release. In Derna, the dams just failed.

Lack of Warning

During Harvey, downstream residents received no warning that Lake Conroe would open its massive floodgates. Many stepped out of bed in the middle of the night to find themselves in knee deep water. CNN reported that there was no warning that the Derna dams could fail and no order to evacuate. Many who tried to evacuate found themselves cut off by collapsed bridges, washed out roads, and rising water, just as in Houston.

Lack of Maintenance

Aljazeera indicated that lack of maintenance may have played a role in the Derna disaster. The dams that failed hadn’t been maintained for years, even though severe erosion had been reported in scientific journals for more than a decade. Likewise, deferred maintenance played a role in flooding the Lake Houston Area during Harvey. During the drought in 2011, the water level in Lake Houston fell so low that the City of Houston could have removed sediment with dump trucks instead of dredges. But Mayor Anise Parker refused to do so. The accumulated sediment later wound up blocking the San Jacinto West Fork and contributing to the flooding of thousands of homes in the Humble/Kingwood area.

Enforcement of Building Codes

In Libya, political turmoil since 2011 reportedly distracted government from the mundane task of enforcing building codes. As a consequence, many hastily constructed buildings went up without adequate safeguards or supervision, and were swept away during the flood. Sound familiar?

Learning from Disasters

We should learn from the past and others’ mistakes. I wonder how many other communities have been surprised by:

Record rainfalls
Dam failures or unexpectedly high dam releases
Warning systems that failed and left people with no time or way to evacuate
Impacts of deferred maintenance
Lax enforcement of building codes

I hope the world learns the lessons of the Derna disaster so that we can compare them to other floods and get smarter about mitigation measures that make a difference.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/12/2023

2205 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Earth Grows Eyeballs

We have two tropical systems in the Atlantic this morning – Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margo which is projected to intensify into a hurricane by tomorrow.

I love looking at the satellite imagery of earth on the National Hurricane Center website. It lets you verify all the complex descriptions of weather developments. And this morning when I went to look at the satellite imagery of the full Atlantic, I was startled by what appeared to be a pair of eyeballs staring back at me, perfectly centered in the sunrise.

And the cloud formations below them loosely resembled a nose and a frown.

Frankly, it looked a bit spooky to me. A cosmic coincidence? But one that triggered thoughts of Halloween a little more than a month away.

Please share with your kids and grandkids. This could be an interesting way to teach them to keep their eyes on the weather.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/11/2023

2204 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Reliable, All-Weather Evacuation Route

Flood-Mitigation Enhancements

Saving Trees

Cost Limitations

Update on Water-Line and Utility Conflicts

Next Steps

Accusations of Systemic Racism Not Supported by Spending Data

More Likely Cause of Flooding Overlooked by Critics Crying Racism

Dangers of Building Over Wetlands

Colonia Now Drawing National Attention

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Comparison Of Areas in Google Earth

Other Comparisons of Manhattan and Colony Ridge

Population

Commerce

Car Repair

Scenic Rivers

Trash

Home Values

Parking Your Home

Access

Diversity

Fire Hydrants

Hotel Costs

Write Your Favorite Travel Guide

Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?

The Curse of Data Truncation

Reporting Turned into Advocacy

Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation

Project Location Near Montgomery

Second Time Around for Spring Creek Dams

Benefit-Cost Ratio

Competing Uses for Land

Funding Partners Will Determine Path Forward, Timetable

Project Will Ultimately Depend on Several Factors

Alternative Possibilities

For More Information

Flood Control Maintenance Increase

Flood Control Debt-Service Increase

Partner Contributions Help Offset Debt-Service, But Are Dropping

Is It a Fair Budget Increase?

2018 NOAA Study Revealed Rainfall Assumptions Inadequate

Participate in Online Survey

Examples of Nature-Based Solutions

Goal of Survey: ID Sustainable Building Blocks for Growth

Reducing Runoff up to 5X

Data Will Ultimately Help Build/Fund Community Resources

For More Information

The Cause: Months of Rain Fall in Day

Terrain Funneled Floodwater Toward City

World and Social Media Focus on Flood

Parallels With Harvey

Rainfall Records

Dam Concerns

Lack of Warning

Lack of Maintenance

Enforcement of Building Codes

Learning from Disasters