The second half of this week will likely be very wet. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Weather Prediction Center forecasts widespread rain totaling 4″ with isolated areas getting 5- 6″ between Wednesday and Sunday.
However, the rain will come in several waves and be spread out. The sporadic nature of the rainfall plus dry ground will minimize the risk of flash flooding. But some forecasters are already warning of possible street flooding, especially where storms cluster or train.
Timing of Rainfall
An upper level storm system will slow and eventually stall over the Houston area from Wednesday-Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage on Wednesday.
As the front slows and lingers just off the upper Texas coast, both the Gulf and Pacific will feed moisture into our area along the boundary. Moisture values will approach the maximum levels for early April by Thursday and Friday.
As the cold front transforms into a coastal trough along the coast or just inland, periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday.
Runoff Will Increase As Ground Becomes Saturated
While it will not rain the entire period, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Expect 1-2 inches per day. And remain alert for cell clustering or training which could trigger street flooding.
Grounds are now very dry over the region and much of the rainfall should soak in. However, grounds will eventually become saturated and when they do, run-off will increase and so will the risk of street flooding.
Severe Weather Threat Low
At this time, the risk of severe weather remains low. The Weather Prediction Center rates our chances of flash flooding from excessive rainfall at less than 15% for both Wednesday/Thursday and Thursday/Friday. But monitor forecasts closely this week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2023
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