Colorado State Predicts “Extremely Active” 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Colorado State University, which has one of the best reputations in seasonal hurricane forecasting, predicted on April 4 that the 2024 Atlantic Season will be “extremely active.” Compared to the average for 30 years from 1991 to 2020, the metrics suggest tropical activity could increase by 50% or more. Below are some of CSU’s key predictions.

MetricCSU April Forecast for 2024Average for 1991-2020 % Increase
Named Storms2314.453%
Hurricanes117.253%
Major Hurricanes53.256%
Accumulated Cyclone Energy*1257371%
*West of 60 degrees longitude (Caribbean, Gulf, Western Atlantic, US East Coast)

2023 had 20 named Atlantic storms. That ranked fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950. If CSU predictions are accurate, this year will be even worse.

Basis for Forecast: Warm Waters, Less Wind Shear

According to CSU, when waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to weaken winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures.

And a very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes.

The graph below from NOAA shows just how much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures were yesterday.

As of yesterday, sea surface temperatures around the world averaged 1 to 4 degrees centigrade higher than normal for this time of year. Four degrees centigrade equals 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit.

Confidence Level

Given the combined signals favorable to hurricane formation, CSU has higher-than-normal confidence for an April outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active.

This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with their April outlook. 

CSU

The CSU team will issue additional forecast updates on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.

New Metric More Accurate

“Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) generated west of 60 degrees west” is a new metric, introduced by CSU this year. It correlates better with landfalling storms in the Atlantic basin than basin-wide ACE. That’s because virtually all hurricane-prone landmasses in the Atlantic Ocean are located west of 60 degrees west.

Landfall Predictions

The CSU report also includes the probability of a major hurricane making landfall:

  • 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
  • 34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
  • 42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
  • 66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).

Data wonks can read CSU’s full 44-page report here.

Consistent with Other Seasonal Forecasts

Forecasters on both sides of the Atlantic have predicted an extremely active hurricane season since January. Adjectives have ranged from “supercharged” to “grim” and “blockbuster.”

The National Hurricane Center usually issues its seasonal outlook a little later in the season.

As always, researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions. It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you.

For more information about climate, hurricanes, and hurricane preparation, visit the National Hurricane Center.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/5/24

2411 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Crenshaw Secures Funding for 10 Lake Houston Area Projects

Congressman Dan Crenshaw has helped secure Federal funding that supports 10 Lake Houston Area projects. Crenshaw submitted requests for the earmarks in 2023. After review by several different congressional committees, some of the earmark requests were modified and some sailed through for the full amounts.

The table below shows requested and approved amounts.

ProjectOriginally RequestedFinally Approved
Walnut Lane Bridge over Kingwood Diversion Ditch$4 million$4 million
New Caney Active Shooter Defense Training Facility$2.3 million$1.65 million
San Jac River Wastewater System$1.8$1.83 million
Goose Creek Channel Conveyance Improvements$8 million$1.75 million
Taylor Gulley Channel Conveyance Improvements$8 million$1.75 million
Ford Road Improvements$12 million$7 million
MoCo Bridge Project$900 thousand$720 thousand
Tamina Economic Development Project$3 million$3 million
FM1488 Street Rehab and Drainage Improvements$1.12$1.12 million
Highlands, Huffman, Crosby Roadway/Drainage Improvements$3.6 million$3.6 million
           Total$44.72 million$26.42 million

Crenshaw Success Rate

According to sources familiar with the process, Crenshaw is one of the few if not the only representatives to secure funding for all projects he has submitted in the last three years.

Reportedly, this is because Crenshaw restricts his requests to projects that save lives and/or money in the long term. Said another way, the requests he submits justify the expenditures. They are usually for infrastructure and save the government money by preventing future flood damage.

Dan Crenshaw (center) reviewing flood damage along Harris/MoCo line.
Crenshaw in black shirt visiting with Elm Grove flood victims in 2019 near Taylor Gully.

For descriptions of all 10 earmarks requested by Crenshaw, see below.

Project Descriptions

Kingwood Diversion Channel – Walnut Lane Bridge Project

Recipient: City of Houston

Purpose: The project includes the widening and reconstruction of Walnut Lane Bridge in Kingwood. This bridge, in its current configuration, will restrict flood flows unless widened to accommodate the future expansion of the Kingwood Diversion Channel currently being designed by the Harris County Flood Control District. The purpose of the overall project is to route drainage from Montgomery County to Lake Houston and reduce flood damage to residents of Kingwood along Bens Branch. The funding is needed to construct improvements needed to facilitate the expansion of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and rebuild the Walnut Lane Bridge.

Active Shooter Defense Training Facility

Recipient: Montgomery County 

Purpose: Purpose: To assist with the operations of our regional active shooter rapid response training facility by purchasing training supplies/aids, equiping graduates with medical response supplies, and ballistic equipment for actual threats. To date, graduates include 1,600 law enforcement personnel, fire and EMS first responders. 

San Jacinto River Wastewater System Replacement Project

Recipient: Army Corps of Engineers

Purpose: To increase the reliability of the San Jacinto River Authority Woodlands Division wastewater conveyance system and repair damage from recent storms. List stations were damaged by flooding during Hurricane Harvey and have yet to be repaired. Both on-site lift stations, the control building, and the emergency generator were flooded and need to be replaced. This request would fund the demolition of the existing structure and build new systems. 

Goose Creek Channel Conveyance Improvements and Stormwater Detention Project

Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District

Purpose:  This project is designed to reduce flood risk within the Goose Creek Watershed by creating a detention basin and improving stormwater conveyance. The project is estimated to remove approximately 28 acres of inundated land, up to 77 structures, and 1.44 miles of inundated roadways from the 100-year event. Preventing flooding will avoid the need for more costly recovery efforts after flooding events.

Taylor Gully Flood Mitigation Project

Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District

Purpose: To reduce flood risk in the Kingwood area.  This area experienced widespread flooding from recent storm events, including Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Imelda.  This project will create a detention basin and improve stormwater conveyance to minimize flood risks. Engineering studies show that completion of this project will result in substantial reductions in flooding along Taylor Gully.  The studies show that this project will remove the 100-year floodplain from more than 276 structures and 115 acres of flood area.

Goose Creek Channel Conveyance Improvements and Stormwater Detention Project

Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District

Purpose:  This project is designed to reduce flood risk within the Goose Creek Watershed by creating a detention basin and improving stormwater conveyance. The project is estimated to remove approximately 28 acres of inundated land, up to 77 structures, and 1.44 miles of inundated roadways from the 100-year event. Preventing flooding will avoid the need for more costly recovery efforts after flooding events.

Ford Road Improvement Project 

Recipient: Montgomery County 

Purpose: Support Ford Road improvements from US 59 in Montgomery County to the Harris County line. The current road is undersized and serves as one of only three evacuation routes for the Kingwood area. All three routes have drainage issues and Ford Road is only a two-lane road. The proposed project would make Ford Road a four-lane road, improve local drainage, and improve driver and pedestrian safety in the corridor.

Montgomery County Bridge Project 

Recipient: Montgomery County 

Purpose: Provide funding for five rural wooden bridges in Montgomery County that are past their design life and need to be replaced. The bridges were not built to current criteria and increase the risk of flooding by backing up water during large storms. One bridge serves as the only way in and out of a subdivision presenting a safety hazard. The funding request is for engineering, surveying, and permitting services to develop construction plans to replace five bridges.

Tamina Economic Development Planning Project

Recipient: Montgomery County

Purpose: The Tamina area is not served by modern street and stormwater management systems. The streets are in disrepair and the area drains very poorly, creating an elevated risk of flooding. The first phase of economic development planning, which this request would support, is to complete detailed engineering and environmental studies, provide new driveways and culverts, and re-grade all of the ditches to allow them to drain. 

FM1488 Area Street Rehabilitation and Drainage Improvement Project 

Recipient: City of Conroe

Purpose: The project will fund roadway resurfacing, drainage improvements, and storm sewer upgrades of roadways connecting to FM1488 near IH-45 (southern part of Conroe). The City of Conroe has experienced severe weather and rainfall which causes considerable wear and tear on the roads and drainage network. The project will benefit residential areas, including the Arella Forrest at Woodland Senior Living Center and Stillwater neighborhood. It will also improve access to the WG Jones State Forest, which serves a community located in a Historically Disadvantaged Community Tract. 

Highland / Huffman / Crosby Roadway & Drainage Improvement 

Recipient: Harris County, Texas

Purpose: Reconstruction of multiple poorly paved roads in subdivisions throughout the Highlands, Crosby, and Huffman areas of northeast Harris County. Existing gravel roads and inadequate drainage will be replaced with asphalt pavement, driveway culverts, and roadside ditches that will greatly improve residents’ quality of life. The projects will also improve accessibility for law enforcement and emergency services, reduce flood risk, and bring the local infrastructure to a standard acceptable for long-term County maintenance. 

Reason for Some Cutbacks

Earmarks come out of a specific percentage of each committee’s overall budget. The more requests that representatives submit, the less money there is to go around. And congressmen have no control over what others submit.

Overall, Congressman Crenshaw did very well. Many of these projects would not be going forward without his assistance.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/24

2410 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New Entergy Power Poles Finally Arrive On Northpark

I got a tip last night that new Entergy power poles finally arrived. Today, I photographed the long-awaited equipment. The poles are not up yet. Nothing is connected to them. Most are just lying in the dirt.

In the quest to build an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents, readers may remember that the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 has sparred with Entergy for four years. Entergy’s power lines need to be moved out of a City-owned easement to accommodate the expansion of Northpark Drive.

I have confirmed that the poles belong to Entergy. Entergy also claims that they will begin erecting the poles in the next few days, weather permitting.

My source did not provide an estimated date for completion. Nor did the source discuss plans for moving Entergy’s transformer near the Exxon station at US59.

But still, this is progress.

Making Way for Surface Turn Lanes

The existing Entergy power poles need to move back to make way for two surface turn lanes that will parallel the bridge over the UP railroad tracks at Loop 494.

One of the two new westbound turn lanes will let traffic turn left onto 494 and the other will let it turn right. This is a TXDoT requirement.

As you can see from the overhead clutter, this is not going to be a simple job.
Entergy has dropped new poles every few feet for several blocks down Northpark.
Entergy power poles back beyond the orange stakes on the left.

The City of Houston issued Entergy an ultimatum to have its equipment out of the way by March 8. March 8 came and went without a sign of Entergy along Northpark. Now, almost a month later, we finally have some movement that could avert a costly legal battle that had the potential to shut the expansion project down.

This is good news. The presence of the power lines in the right of way has delayed construction considerably and forced contractors to take tasks out of sequence.

Union Pacific access issues have already been worked out. So, hopefully, construction should move faster now.

Elsewhere Along Northpark

Northbound turn lanes at 59 have reached their full width and are growing longer.

Outbound traffic was confined to one lane today, causing considerable delays.
Note freshly poured concrete being finished.

As soon as the new turn lanes are complete, traffic in the old lanes will be rerouted to them. Then contractors will repave the old lanes. That process should take three months according to LHRA. Westbound traffic should expect delays.

LHRA encourages commuters to take alternative routes.  For the next phase of work, the contractor will install new storm sewer pipes and inlets along with the new concrete roadway.

Russell Palmer Intersection Closed This Weekend

Farther east, contractors have already removed a pole mounted traffic signal at the Northpark/Russell Palmer Intersection. This weekend, they will rip up the intersection to extend the box culverts in the median. The crossover will close from 9pm Friday night, April 5, to 5am Monday morning, April 8, to make way for construction.

Looking W toward US59 across Russell Palmer along Northpark. The crossover will be ripped up this weekend to extend the culverts.

Traffic was backed up for more than a mile in each direction this afternoon because of multiple lane closures as you can see above.

Construction is never easy. Pack your patience. Plan on delays. And search for alternative routes for the duration.

For More Information

For more information about Northpark expansion, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/24

2408 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

City Mobilizing for More West Fork Dredging

Mobilization for the next phase of San Jacinto West Fork dredging is underway. The City of Houston and its contractor DRC (a subsidiary of Callan Marine) are already staging equipment in two places on the West Fork.

The program, funded by FEMA, will remove an estimated 800,000 cubic yards of silt and sediment between the original location of the West Fork Mouth Bar and FM1960. The contractor will use primarily hydraulic dredging and the program will take approximately two years, according to District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger.

West Fork Dredging Project Dates Back to Dave Martin Era

Flickinger credits his predecessor, former Council Member Dave Martin, and Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello’s tireless efforts in protesting the initial amount proposed for dredging by FEMA back in 2019. FEMA’s initial proposal, based on a four-page, table-top study produced by the Army Corps, called for dredging 283,000 cubic yards.

Martin strongly disagreed with the Corps’ report and appealed it while the City produced its own 94-page technical report. It showed a much higher volume deposited by Harvey. Remember: Harvey funds could not be used to address sediment deposited before Harvey. The City report produced by Tetra Tech relied extensively on core samples. Tetra Tech proved that Harvey laid down the sand in the mouth bar and that the dredging volume should be closer to a million cubic yards.

In August 2020, FEMA and the Corps finally concurred with the City, after extensive discussions and a massive assist from U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw. Crenshaw and others had been pushing FEMA for years for the additional dredging.

Current Status

The new West Fork dredging program should be ready to go within weeks. DRC is currently bringing in the equipment that they will need.

DRC plans to use primarily hydraulic dredging. They will attack the area between where the mouth bar was (south of Scenic Shores in Kings Point) and the FM1960 Bridge. See map below.

Map from City study showing area of focus.
Hydraulic dredge being assembled at old Army Corps mobilization site south of Forest Cove pool. Photo taken 4/1/24.
DRC is also starting to stockpile mechanical dredging equipment such as these pontoons on Berry Madden’s property south of River Grove Park (top center).

This is good news. The new West Fork dredging will help ensure that water doesn’t back up like it did before. It’s not a guarantee against flooding. Dredging is only one part of a multi-faceted mitigation program that also includes more upstream detention and new floodgates on the Lake Houston dam. More news on those topics to follow.

Posted by Bob Rehak

2407 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Wildly Divergent Colony Ridge Population Estimates Pose Planning Problems

Colony Ridge, the controversial Latino development in Liberty county, has grown at least 50% larger than Manhattan in about a decade. How many people live there? No one knows for sure. Colony Ridge population estimates vary widely. And that has ominous implications for planners.

Most of Colony Ridge falls within Census tract 7003.02. The Census Bureau estimates that, in 2023, 13,573 people lived there, even though Colony Ridge occupies only about two thirds of the census tract.

Based on that, one might conclude that the Census Bureau believes about 10,000 people live in Colony Ridge. But the local school district estimates 80,000 people live there. Who’s right? And why does it matter?

What’s at Stake

A precise answer is important for many reasons: Congressional representation for Texas is at stake. So is planning for water supply, schools, traffic, law enforcement, flood mitigation, and more. Yet precise answers are elusive.

Why the Wide Variation?

Last year, I interviewed Congressman Brian Babin’s chief of staff. Babin represents Colony Ridge in Congress.

Babin’s chief told me about the problems that Census takers had in Colony Ridge back in 2020. To summarize, as many as two, three, or even four families often live together in one home. And often, they don’t want to be counted. Reportedly, many fear discovery and deportation because they entered the U.S. illegally. So they are under-reported.

In an interview with Blaze Media, Liberty County Sheriff Bobby Rader was asked if he has any idea how many Colony Ridge residents are here illegally. Rader replied (at 26:23 into the video), “… the majority of the people out there are illegal aliens.”

Rader’s observation is consistent with U.S. Border Patrol reports of record-high migrant encounters – more than a quarter million in last December alone at the Mexican border.

Yet the Census Bureau estimates that only about 50 people per year move to ALL of Liberty County as a result of international immigration and Colony Ridge is reputedly the largest, fastest growing colonia in the country.

Estimates contradict each other.

Who to Believe?

On the low end, in round numbers, the Census Bureau believes about 10,000 people live in Colony Ridge. On the high end, based on enrollment, the Cleveland ISD superintendent believes about 80,000 live there.

At 29:45 into the Blaze video, Cleveland ISD Superintendent Stephen McCanless says, “What we’re finding down there (in Colony Ridge) is that you have multiple families living in one house with four, five, six and sometimes seven children in one house.” At 28:14, McCanless says “District enrollment is usually 10% of your total community population. That tells me that we should have about 80,000 people living there.”

While the superintendent has an actual head count, he’s counting children, not adults. The Pew Foundation found that Hispanics are far more likely than Whites to have large families with four or more children today. That’s one possible source of error when comparing to historic, largely White norms.

The superintendent is also not counting Colony Ridge children whose parents enroll them in Montgomery County schools not far away. According to anecdotal reports, that number could be substantial.

John Harris, the developer, splits the difference between the Census Bureau and the ISD. He estimates the current population of Colony Ridge at approximately 35,000 at 3:22 into the Blaze video. But Harris is basing his estimate on “lots sold,” not residents per lot.

Deeply Flawed Population Estimates Will Affect Planning

Conclusion: all these contradictory population estimates have flaws. And that makes planning an exercise in guesswork. Let’s take the example of water. It’s necessary to sustain life, yet planning large scale water projects can take decades. Most take up to 50 years.

If Colony Ridge grew by 80,000 people in roughly 10 years, will there be enough water in the aquifers to support a quarter million in another 20 years? If not, where will the water come from?

I talked to one long-term resident of neighboring Plum Grove whose well ran dry recently. She and her neighbor both had to drill their wells lower.

If Colony Ridge does grow to a quarter million people, it would rank near the ten largest cities in Texas.

At that point, the fight for water rights would pit Liberty County’s traditional farm-based population against newcomers, more than half of whom by the Sheriff’s estimate are illegal aliens. I don’t see that battle ending well…for anyone.

Missing Documents: Skirting State and County Water Regulations

To avoid surprises like this, Liberty County requires proof of a 30-year water supply before it approves plats. See Section 8.2 of Liberty County Subdivision Regulations. So does the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC) of Texas.

Yet when Maria Acevedo, a former landowner in Colony Ridge, requested such proof, neither Liberty County, the TCEQ, nor PUC could supply it. That’s scary.

It took decades to plan and build the Luce Bayou Interbasin Transfer Project and even longer for the Northeast Water Purification Plant. Together, they cost $2.3 billion.

Can an area where at least 30% of the population lives below the poverty line afford that investment? Colony Ridge has already shown that its corner-cutting business model can’t afford to meet Liberty County fire hydrant and drainage regulations.

The issue is sustainability. As aquifers deplete, land subsides. And Colony Ridge already has flooding problems.

Subsidence can make that worse by creating a bowl in the landscape that reduces the gradient of streams. That slows down floodwaters and makes them peak higher, faster – especially when surrounding development has insufficient stormwater detention like Colony Ridge.

It’s time to do some mid-course correction while there’s still time.

For more information about Colony Ridge, see this list of previous posts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/31/24 with thanks to Michael Shrader for his research on population

2406 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Northpark Expansion Update, Still No Sign of Entergy

In the last three weeks, the Northpark expansion project has made slow, but steady progress, despite the fact that Entergy still has not moved any power poles or its transformer. For the moment, contractors seem to be working around the absentee utility issues, which have lingered for four years.

The bulk of activity has focused on the two stormwater detention basins near US59; drainage between 59 and 494; and new northbound turn lanes at 59. In addition, contractors spliced in a section of culvert by Parkwood Baptist Church near Russell-Palmer Road.

A gap was caused by a conflict with an existing water line to the church. The water line was too close to the surface. Therefore, contractors could not place the culvert deep enough. Rerouting the water line became its own small construction project, requiring engineering diagrams, approvals, estimates, change orders, permits and city inspections.

Another Week, Another Turn Lane

Most progress this week could be seen at the entries.

Looking NE from over 59 and Northpark Drive. Note fresh concrete for two additional right-hand, outbound turn lanes.
Looking east. Photos taken Wednesday afternoon 3/27/24. Outbound traffic was backed up to Russell-Palmer Road.
Note fresh concrete pour and men smoothing it. Also note culvert and connectors being stockpiled for new storm sewers.
Farther east, we can see more prep work for the drainage that must be installed before work on the surface.

Rain Slows Basin Excavation

More than three inches of rain in the week before I took these shots seems to have slowed down excavation of the detention basins at the 59 entry.

Ponding water gives hint of what is to come. Looking N over south pond.
Looking E across north pond. Both retaining walls in the north pond are finished and the concrete is curing. Backfill is already completed behind the walls.
Looking S across Northpark at south pond.
Workers are still removing the wooden forms around the last retaining wall. Fill has not yet been placed behind the wall.

Work at Russell Palmer Scheduled

Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 has posted a lane closure notice for the Russell-Palmer crossover between the east- and westbound lanes of Northpark from 9pm on Friday, April 5th to 5am on Monday, April 8th. That’s next weekend.

Crews will remove old pole-mounted traffic signals and replace them with wire-mounted signals. This will enable contractors to continue laying culvert toward the west. Right now the pole-mounted lights are in the center the road. That area will eventually be paved over.

Pole-mounted traffic signals at Russell Palmer will be removed to make way for extension of culvert.

Here is the 3-week lookahead schedule posted on March 21.

Entergy Still MIA

Entergy was first notified of conflicts with the expansion project in 2020. They still haven’t moved their equipment, such as this transformer. At this point, they have ignored a City of Houston ultimatum for three weeks. Entergy has not returned phone calls to clarify when it plans to take action.

Transformer at Exxon Station. The box that’s putting the whole expansion project in a box.

For More Information

For more information about Northpark expansion, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/29/24

2404 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

A Visual Testament to the Wonders of Wetlands

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, wetlands provide free floodwater storage that helps retain runoff and reduce flooding. Wetlands also reduce erosion and improve water quality. Last, but not least, they also provide habitat for hundreds of species.

One of my hobbies has long been bird photography. Few other cities in America offer the possibilities that Houston does, thanks in large part to the abundant wetlands found here.

For instance, since 2010, 198 species of birds have been spotted in or near the wetlands of Kingwood’s East End Park. Many of those species are rare, threatened, or even endangered.

Many of the shots below were taken there. Friendswood donated the land to the Kingwood Service Association to manage for the benefit of all Kingwood residents. And I am sure that proximity to such beauty has enhanced home values.

Local Color

For those willing to explore, the visual rewards can be priceless. These colorful creatures enrich our community and our lives.

Mating display by Great White Egret in breeding plumage.
Painted Bunting enjoying breakfast
Cattle Egret near Huffman
Roseate Spoonbills defending nest from marauder.
Ruby-Throated Hummingbird near Creekwood Nature Center and Kingwood Town Center
Cedar Waxwing
Male Mallard in Huffman on Lake Houston
Great White Egrets watch hatchling as it emerges from egg
Roseate Spoonbills get their pink coloration from the foods they eat. They are one of six spoonbill species in the world and the only one found in North America.
Male Scarlet Tanager in breeding plumage.

As we head into the peak of the Spring nesting season, I offer these shots as a visual testament to the wonders of wetlands. And with grateful thanks to all our predecessors who saw the beauty in conservation and preservation.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/27/24

2402 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Most Effective Forms of Flood Mitigation

In the continuing quest for understanding, today I googled “What are the most effective forms of flood mitigation?” The query returned 284 million results, including the one following.

A&M Study of Buffalo Bayou Found Stormwater Storage Most Effective

One interesting study co-authored by a Texas A&M professor, Samuel Brody, was titled, “How effective are drainage systems in mitigating flood losses?” This particular study compared the relative effectiveness several options and found:

  • Storage-based drainage mechanisms are most effective for flood mitigation.
  • 92% of flood damage cost can be saved by using storage-based facilities.
  • Installing conveyance-based systems on property roads reduces flood damage by 19%.

The authors based their study on Buffalo Bayou and defined effectiveness as “flood-damage reduction.”

Expanding storage and conveyance are certainly the go-to solutions for Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD). One former director of HCFCD told me that he agrees that storage is the most effective option in this area and that conveyance is also effective, but less so.

Willow Water Hole
A small part of the 279-acre Willow Water Hole complex near Brays Bayou, South Post Oak and Highway 90.

More Options on Menu…

But many more solutions exist.

I didn’t have time this morning to compare the other 284 million hits, so I asked ChatGPT my question. The AI bot replied:

“Flood mitigation involves various strategies and measures aimed at reducing the risk and impact of flooding on communities and infrastructure. Some of the most effective forms of flood mitigation include:

  1. Floodplain Management: This involves regulating land use and development in flood-prone areas to minimize the exposure of people and property to flood risks. It may include zoning regulations, building codes, and restrictions on construction in flood-prone areas.
  2. Natural Flood Management: Utilizing natural features such as wetlands, floodplains, and forests to absorb and slow down floodwaters. Restoring and preserving these natural features can help to reduce the severity of floods by increasing water retention and infiltration.
  3. Flood Control Infrastructure: Building structures such as levees, dams, floodwalls, and stormwater drainage systems to control and redirect floodwaters. While these measures can be effective, they often come with high costs and potential environmental impacts.
  4. Stormwater Management: Implementing practices to manage stormwater runoff, such as green roofs, permeable pavements, and rain gardens. These techniques help to reduce the volume and velocity of runoff, decreasing the risk of flooding.
  5. Flood Warning Systems: Establishing early warning systems to alert residents and authorities of impending floods, allowing time for evacuation and implementation of emergency measures.
  6. Elevation and Retrofitting: Elevating buildings and infrastructure in flood-prone areas to reduce their vulnerability to flooding. Retrofitting existing structures with flood-resistant materials and technologies can also help to minimize flood damage.
  7. Community Education and Preparedness: Educating residents about flood risks, evacuation procedures, and emergency preparedness measures. Community involvement and awareness are essential for effective flood mitigation efforts.
  8. Land Use Planning and Regulation: Implementing comprehensive land use plans that consider flood risk and incorporate measures to mitigate it. This may include avoiding development in high-risk areas and promoting sustainable land use practices.
  9. Insurance and Financial Incentives: Encouraging the purchase of flood insurance and providing financial incentives for property owners to undertake flood mitigation measures such as elevating structures or installing flood barriers.
  10. Cooperation and Coordination: Collaborating with neighboring areas to manage transboundary rivers and basins effectively.

“Effective flood mitigation often requires a combination of these strategies tailored to the specific geographic, social, and economic context of each region. Additionally, ongoing monitoring, evaluation, and adaptation of flood mitigation measures are essential to address evolving flood risks due to factors such as climate change and urbanization.”

The AI system didn’t quantify its answers, though, the way Brody’s study did and I can understand why. There is no one-size-fits-all answer.

Having researched approximately 2500 stories since Hurricane Harvey, I’ve written dozens of posts in each of the 10 categories above.

Some of the standouts include:

  1. Floodplain Management: Remember the Romerica story? International developers wanted to build 50-story high rises in the floodplain and floodway of the San Jacinto West Fork…with no viable evacuation route. Thank goodness the Army Corps denied the permit.
  2. Natural Floodplain Management: Remember the two Elm Grove floods in 2019? For years, before a developer clearcut 270 acres in the headwaters of Taylor Gully, the area below the new development remained flood free – even during Harvey. Clearcutting contributed to the flooding of hundreds of homes. Now we’re looking at expensive man-made fixes.
  3. Floodwater Infrastructure: Stormwater detention basins and channel widening have proven effective almost everywhere in and around Harris County. They’re expensive, but proven solutions in our flat, low-lying area. But they only work in areas with room to build them. In older areas, they often require buying out entire neighborhoods.
  4. Stormwater Management: The U.S. General Services Administration has found that green roofs have been found to reduce stormwater runoff by up to 65%.
  5. Flood Warning Systems: One of the most memorable aspects of Harvey was how rising floodwaters caught people unaware in the middle of the night. Twelve people died in Kingwood Village Estates during emergency evacuations, when they could have driven out safely just hours earlier.
  6. Elevation and Retrofitting: John Blount, former Harris County Engineer found that areas that adopted improved building codes after Allison had 20X less damage during Harvey.
  7. Community Education and Preparedness: HCFCD’s Final Harvey Report found that more than 70,000 homes in Harris County flooded, which were outside of any known floodplain. Few people understand their true flood risk.
  8. Land-Use Planning and Regulation: Even as I write this, new developments are being built in high-risk areas, such as Northpark South, where the entrance to the new subdivision was under 8 feet of water during Harvey. How soon we forget!
  9. Insurance and Financial Incentives: Until recently, flood insurance was subsidized by the Federal Government. Some say that encouraged people to build in risky places. But FEMA’s new risk-based rates are encouraging people to be more cautious now about where they build and buy.
  10. Cooperation and Coordination: In a widespread 100-year flood, more than 2 million acre feet of runoff funnel through the Lake Houston Area from more than 2800 square miles outside of Harris County. Floodwater does not respect political boundaries. We will not solve flooding alone.

There are no simple answers to “What are the most effective forms of flood mitigation?” But the areas outlined above offer good starting points for exploration.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/24

2400 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Easy Way to Reduce Water Usage, Costs, Subsidence and Flood Risk

The Texas A&M Agrilife Extension Service, working with local government organizations, has developed a free, customized program that might help you reduce water usage, costs, subsidence and flood risk. It’s called the WaterMyYard program.

A large percentage of the water used in urban areas goes to watering lawns. On average, the EPA estimates 30-60% of residential water irrigates lawns. Your percentage may vary depending on your location, distance inland, average temperature, rainfall, size of yard, etc. But in general, 50% is a good average estimate.

Grass is the most watered crop in America. And many of us overwater our lawns, running up water bills needlessly.

How WaterMyYard Program Works

WaterMyYard uses local weather data in participating areas to provide free, weekly watering advice.

The system collects data from an extensive network of weather stations and rain gauges. It then correlates that data with evapotranspiration rates for major grass types; air and soil temperatures; rainfall; wind; and dew points so you can put the precise amount of water on your lawn that it needs to stay healthy.

Example: data for North Houston in the last 7 Days used as basis for calculations.

When you sign up for the service, you answer a few questions about the type of sprinklers you have and the inches per hour they spread on your lawn. Based on measured weather data, the system then sends you customized weekly water advice for your specific lawn and irrigation system.

The system takes the guess work out of knowing when and how much to water.

Texas A&M Agrilife Extension

For instance, it could tell you how much to cut back after a major rain or how much to increase watering during a dry spell.

If you don’t know how much water your system puts out per hour, don’t worry, you can change the amount after you sign up. You can use typical rates for different types of sprinkler systems. Or you can actually measure it by placing cans around your yard during watering cycles.

You can also add sprinkler systems, for instance, if you have one type for your lawn and another for flower beds and shrubs.

Testimonial: Water Usage Cut in Half

One user I know said he was able to cut his water usage by 50%. “I dropped home consumption in half and my lawn is still green and everything’s still fine,” he said. “Most of us just don’t have enough information. When we go into new homes, we just leave the sprinkler settings the way the last guy had them.”

“I really didn’t pay much attention to them,” he continued. “As long as my grass was green, I was good. But a lot of research out there says that we can be more efficient with that. And that’s what the WaterMyYard program does.”

With water rates constantly going up, it’s easy to see how eliminating wasted water, can save you money. But how does lawn watering affect subsidence and how does that affect flood risk?

Connection to Subsidence, Flooding

Large parts of the region still aren’t on surface water; they use groundwater. And if we use groundwater faster than it’s being replaced, we experience subsidence. Places in northwest Harris County sank 50 centimeters (almost 20 inches) between 2000 and 2022.

From presentation to Harris-Galveston Board of Directors on 12/8/2023.

In a flat area like Houston, an inch per year can be significant. One subsidence expert said it can be enough to reduce the gradient of whole watersheds over a decade or two. That means stormwater doesn’t move away as quickly as it once did. So, in large rainfalls, flood peaks build higher faster.

Now consider this. If lawn irrigation accounts for half of residential water use, and if half of lawn irrigation is unnecessary, up to 25% of water we use could have stayed in the ground. And that could significantly reduce subsidence and flood risk while reducing your monthly water bill.

The sooner you act, the more you save. So sign up for WaterMyLawn weekly watering advisories today.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/23/2024

2398 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Houston’s Resilience and Climate Action Report Card

Houston’s Resilience and Climate Action report card for 2023 shows how much progress has been made in the last three years.

In 2020, three years after Hurricane Harvey, the City of Houston completed a comprehensive, and wide-ranging resilience plan. The latest report card also updates on the City’s Resilience efforts as well as its Climate efforts.

The two go far beyond flooding. Together, they attempt to institutionalize equity, resilience, and sustainability within all city functions including:

  • Equity and Opportunity
  • Mobility and Land Use
  • Buildings and Energy
  • Water
  • Disaster Management
  • Heat and Nature
  • Materials Management
  • Resilience Coordination

Houston’s Resilience and Climate Action report card includes a total of 297 specific actions. Eighty-four percent of the 201 actions in the resilience plan, and 72 percent of 96 actions in the climate plan are now complete or in progress. The graph below shows how they should play out in the next 25 years.

From Page 8 of the Year 3 Report

Flood Resilience

Flood resilience highlights included:

  • Sixteen green storm-water infrastructure projects were completed in 2022, bringing the total completed to 86 in three years.
  • The City kicked off a stormwater master planning effort to better analyze the performance of the City’s stormwater infrastructure, using updated rainfall data to identify and assess areas of the City with the greatest need for system improvements.
  • In 2023, The City and its partners broke ground on the first of four funded flood-mitigation infrastructure projects to reach the construction phase, the Inwood Forest Stormwater Detention Basin. North Canal Diversion Channel, Lake Houston Dam Gate Structure, and TIRZ 17 Regional Detention are the three other major flood mitigation projects in Houston funded by FEMA.

Other Resilience and Climate Achievements

Other resilience- and climate-related achievements in Houston’s Resilience and Climate Action report card included:

  • A 2020 greenhouse gas emissions inventory showed a 10% reduction from the 2014 baseline.
  • The City was awarded an A rating from the Carbon Disclosure Project once again in 2022.
  • Houston also achieved its Gold designation as a Leader in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) for Cities by the U.S. Green Building Council.
  • In 2022, the City and its partners planted more than 200,000 trees, bringing the total planted since 2019 to more than 1.4 million – or 31% of its 4.6 million tree goal by 2030.
  • Also in 2022, the Houston City Council approved the Nature Preserve Ordinance designed to protect 7,423 acres of natural habitat in City parks. These areas will help mitigate flooding, store carbon, reduce urban heat island effects, improve air and water quality, and provide educational opportunities for the public.
  • Twenty miles of high-comfort bike lanes were built in 2022 bringing the total miles to 406 out of a goal of 500 miles – 81% complete.
  • The City adopted a Municipal Building Decarbonization and Benchmarking policy in 2022 and finalized initial benchmarking in 2023.
  • Houston Airport System started engaging in an Airport Carbon Accreditation program and began documenting benchmarks.
  • Houston kicked off the Climate Resilience Measurement for Communities project in partnership with the Resilient Cities Network.
  • By the end of 2021, annual local solar generation in Houston increased to 148,030 MWh. Solar demand is growing exponentially. Solar permitting doubled between 2019 and 2021 and increased another 66% in 2022.
  • Between 2022 and 2023, purchases of Electric Vehicles more than tripled the number of EVs in the municipal fleet. The City is also increasing investment in publicly accessible charging stations.
  • The City signed an MOU with the Houston Community College to train 500,000 Houstonians in resilience.
  • The Houston Recycling Collaboration started collecting “all plastics,” including styrofoam, bags and films.

2024 Goals

Having read many reports like these, you quickly learn to distinguish things that happen on paper from things that happen on the ground.

Among exciting goals for 2024, four stood out in that regard.

  • The launch of a tree planting portal to coordinate community efforts.
  • Heat mitigation efforts
  • Green stormwater infrastructure and urban prairie plantings
  • Building pilot resilience hubs.

I don’t mean to shortchange other efforts. The City is also pursuing grants and partnerships which will be important down the road.

To see Houston’s Resilience and Climate Action report card, click here.

To learn more about the Mayor’s Office of Resilience and Sustainability, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/22/24

2397 Days since Hurricane Harvey