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HCFCD Grappling with Inflation’s Impact on Flood-Bond Purchasing Power

Inflation has reduced the 2018 Flood Bond’s purchasing power. The general rate of inflation during the last five years adds up to 20%. That could potentially eliminate one fifth of the projects in the flood bond.

It’s a serious concern for the people whose mitigation projects have been put at the end of the line by the County’s Equity Prioritization Framework. Some residents may never see any benefit from their tax dollars, which are going to other areas.

Here’s how Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will look at projects that now have an uncertain future.

Local Costs Consistent with General Rate of Inflation

In a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Jesal Shah PE, the new Chief Project Delivery Officer for HCFCD, discussed the issue of inflation. Shah, a Houston native, has been in his job since May, 2023. He previously led flood-risk reduction planning, design, engineering, and construction efforts for the government of British Columbia.

Shah cited 15-20% increases in construction, material, and right-of-way acquisition costs for Harris County flood-mitigation projects.

*This and other screen captures below are* *from Shah’s presentation to Flood Task Force* *on 12/14/23.*

Summary of 2018 Flood-Bond Funding To Date

The 2018 flood bond contained $2.5 billion in funding for approximately $5 billion worth of projects. Partnership funding, i.e., grants, were supposed to make up the difference.

And at this point, all of the partnership funding has been secured thanks to an infusion of $825 million in Community Development Block Grant funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Texas General Land Office (GLO).

*“Anticipated”* *should now be removed from this slide.*

That’s very good news.

63% of Bonds Sold Already

Shah says that the County has sold $1.575 billion worth of bonds to date, almost two thirds of the original $2.5 billion.

Of the two thirds, about half the money has been spent or “encumbered.” Encumbered means the money is committed to projects and difficult to move. For instance, a project may be in construction, but not yet completed.

The other half has been committed to projects, but not yet encumbered. For instance, bonds may have been sold, but the construction job may not have been awarded yet.

See below.

Securing the partner funding is huge good news. But the impact of inflation is worrisome. To help deal with that, the County is re-evaluating all projects associated with the flood bond.

How Projects are Being Re-evaluated

Shah cited three types of projects listed in the original bond. Those with:

Well defined scope and accurate estimates.
Clear scope but inaccurate estimates. For instance, the Lauder basin has almost tripled its original cost estimate.
Vague scope and unreliable estimates.

See examples below.

To complicate matters, some backstop funding from the Flood Resilience Trust is no longer available because of new “guidance” from Commissioners Court. That will eliminate $343 million in funding flexibility.

And keep this in mind. The bond program is far from complete. We could easily see another 15-20% of inflation before its over. So what to do?

Sharpening the Pencil

Shah’s team is dividing the remaining bond projects into two piles.

Those with clear scope and funding will be completed.
Those without clear scope or funding will be re-evaluated.

Shah hopes to present an updated project list to Commissioners Court sometime during the second quarter of 2024.

Shah has already taken a first pass at re-evaluating the bond’s project list. Of the 181 projects identified in the bond:

30 have already been completed or eliminated.
63 will continue moving forward.
88 (almost half) will need more funding or more clarity (i.e., more engineering studies/tighter estimates) to move forward.

The slide below shows the guiding principles for evaluating the 88 projects that need more funding or clarity.

Lack of Balance Could Jeopardize Future Bond Offerings

One possible way to mitigate the toll of inflation involves phasing projects in areas that have already received large amounts of funding so that projects in areas that received little funding could move forward.

For instance, in a project that involves multiple stormwater detention basins, one or more of the basins could be delayed until the next bond. Meanwhile, delaying that basin could free up money for a basin in a different watershed.

However, during Q&A, Shah said he has no plans to phase projects.

A lack of equitable distribution could jeopardize future bond offerings.

And many areas have received little funding from this bond.

*More than a 100 to 1 difference exists between projects on the left and right.*

In the future, voters who saw no benefit from the 2018 flood bond might, once again, feel victimized by bait-and-switch tactics.

Selling future bonds will require restoring faith in the fairness of government. And that will require spreading bond funds around so that everyone – in all parts of the county – sees some benefit from them. That’s my humble opinion.

When HCFCD presents its updated project list to Commissioners Court in the second quarter of 2024, it will be interesting to see whether Commissioners and the County Judge agree with it.

John Whitmire’s landslide election in the Houston Mayor’s race may send a message to them. Whitmire is a Democrat who campaigned across the aisle and received heavy Republican support.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/16/2023

2300 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Between a River and Ruin

For residents of flood-prone areas such as Northpark South, only the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) stands between a river and ruin.

But ironically, efforts to staunch financial hemhorraging are making NFIP flood insurance unaffordable for many with low incomes. That creates an uncertain future for developments and people in or near floodplains.

Moreover, Congress must reauthorize NFIP before midnight on Feb. 2, 2024, to avoid a lapse in authority to sell flood insurance and borrow funds.

Approximately six million homes sit in special flood hazard areas nationwide. The National Association of Realtors estimates that should a lapse in the NFIP’s authorization occur, it threatens 1,300 property sales each day.

Texas Ranks #2 in States with Most Flood Damage

Texas ranks #2 in states with the most flood damage. More people live in Texas floodplains than live in 30 states, according to the TWDB. Northpark South is a good example why.

Hurricane Harvey inundated the area below with approximately eight feet of floodwater. Now, Century Land Holdings of Texas is clearing this risky area bordering the San Jacinto West Fork to build more than 230 homes.

*Northpark South, a new development by Century Land Holdings of Texas.* *Looking west across Sorters-McClellan Road from over Northpark Drive in foreground. San Jacinto River runs through sand pits in background.* *Photo 12/13/23.*

This 50-acre patch of dirt is a symbolic battlefield in a growing debate over NFIP, which Congress must renew or reform next year.

Jobs vs. Jitters

A coalition of developers, home builders, realtors and mortgage lenders sees the NFIP’s nationally subsidized insurance rates as a tool to sustain employment, grow the economy, and enlarge the tax base of communities.

Others believe the subsidies encourage dangerous development in flood-prone areas by giving homebuyers a false sense of security.

Finding the right balance between encouraging responsible development and mitigating flood risks is a complex task for policymakers. Perhaps nowhere do the issues come into sharper focus than in Northpark South. Even the entrance to the subdivision was under eight feet of water. That would make evacuation difficult for anyone caught napping when the waters rise.

Contradictory Lawsuits Against FEMA

Contradictory lawsuits symbolize the two sides in this debate. An article in Government Executive noted that FEMA is being sued for making flood insurance too expensive AND too cheap!

One law suit – that includes the State of Texas as a plaintiff – alleges that high flood insurance rates put residents and communities at risk of economic ruin.

A second lawsuit alleges that low rates do too little to stop developments on at-risk land.

The second lawsuit alleges taxpayer-subsidized, discounted coverage encourages floodplain development in high-hazard areas by providing insurance policies that obscure risk to property owners.

“This FEMA-incentivized development puts people in danger, harms communities, and destroys ecosystems.”
Lawsuit

The contradictory allegations in the lawsuits underscore the need for careful policymaking around flood insurance.

Battle over Risk Rating 2.0

What triggered these lawsuits? FEMA has tried to navigate these dangerous waters by introducing a new system called Risk Rating 2.0. Risk Rating 2.0 reflects risk to individual properties from multiple sources of flooding, instead of aggregating people in broad flood zones. It also takes into account factors such as building codes and elevation that can mitigate flood risk.

Risk Rating 2.0 is an attempt to eliminate the subsidy aspect of flood insurance by quoting rates on an actuarial basis. Reportedly, some homeowner’s flood insurance rates have fallen, but others are rising and will continue to rise for years to come as risk becomes fully priced into policies. Texas and other Gulf Coast states are in the highest premium increase group, according to GAO.

Right now, law caps annual rate increases under Risk Rating 2.0. But the Congressional Accounting Office says caps only perpetuate an unfunded premium shortfall. GAO estimated it would take until 2037 for 95 percent of current policies to
reach full-risk premiums, resulting in a $27 billion premium shortfall by then.

GAO also believes that discounted premiums hide fiscal exposure, address affordability poorly and hinder private-market growth.

In the meantime…

People who buy homes in Northpark South may find insurance affordable today and then find themselves quickly priced out of the market because of risk.

Affordability of Insurance Increasingly in Doubt

Rising costs are the number one insurance-related issue in many states, according to Realtor Magazine. Risk Rating 2.0 aligns premiums with risk, but jeopardizes affordability.

Some who buy homes in Northpark South will drop flood insurance because of its cost. GAO says nine percent of NFIP policy holders will see price increases greater than 300%.

Higher premiums give policy holders a greater incentive to mitigate flood risk. But they’re also causing many homeowners to cancel policies.

One Congressional aid I talked to worried that if not enough people buy flood insurance, places like Northpark South will become “instant slums” after the first time they flood.

The reality: those who most need flood insurance can least afford it.

The GAO report comes as close to riveting reading as any government document I have ever read. Among other things, it points out how FEMA’s Community Rating System may send contradictory risk signals to potential buyers.

*Approximately 236 homes and an 11.2 acre detention basin will be nestled between sand pits and occasional raging floodwaters.* *Northpark is the divided street in the background.* *Kingwood is beyond.*

When Congress takes up NFIP next year, debate could lead to additional reforms. Watch closely. No one can predict the outcome at this point. Lobbyists are choosing up sides … between property rights and protection. Between a river and ruin.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/14/23

2298 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Differences in Ways County, State Propose Ranking Flood Projects

The Texas Water Development Board is seeking public comment on its plan to allocate $375 million in funding from the State’s flood infrastructure fund for the 2024-25 state fiscal year.

That prompted me to compare the TWDB and Harris County plans for ranking flood projects. The differences remind me of how the scoring systems favor certain projects in some areas and not others.

Harris County and the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) use distinctly different priorities when considering which flood-mitigation projects to fund.

The biggest differences have to do with the weights given to severity of flooding, protection of infrastructure, social vulnerability and maintenance costs.

The state also uses “benefit/cost ratios” much like the federal government. The county, however, uses a measure called “project efficiency,” which is related but slightly different.

Differences in Ranking Projects

Here is the most recent prioritization framework that Harris County adopted in 2022 and again in 2023. And here is the draft “intended use plan” for the State of Texas 2024-25 Flood Infrastructure Fund.

Let’s look more closely at each plan and then examine their differences.

Harris County Prioritization Framework

Harris County examines:

Project Efficiency…
- Using People Benefitted
- Using Structures Benefitted
Existing Conditions
Social Vulnerability Index
Long Term Maintenance Costs
Environmental Impacts
Potential for Multiple Benefits

Each project is assigned a score for each criterion below ranging from 0 to 10. A score of “10” indicates the project fully met the criterion and a score of “0” indicates that it did not.

*Summary of ranking matrix from page 4 of Harris County Framework*. *For explanations of scoring on each measure, see full document.*

Proposed TWDB Matrix

The TWDB scoring matrix measures more factors and gives them different weights.

*For larger, high res version and detailed explanation, see full plan.*

The first thing you notice is that the table above is much wider and deeper than the County’s matrix. That’s because it lists evaluation criteria for different categories. And criteria sometimes change depending on the category.

Comparison of Differences

Social Vulnerability

Harris County gives 20% of all projects’ weights to social vulnerability. But the TWDB only gives it 5% weight. TWDB also uses social vulnerability as a tie breaker (see page 22).

Equity

Harris County has organized its flood-mitigation priorities since 2019 around equity. The proposed TWDB plan does not mention the word.

Efficiency

Harris County measures the efficiency of removing people and structures from the 100-year floodplain. The County defines efficiency as the cost of the project divided by the number of people or structures benefited. It gives them 45% weight within the final score.

TWDB also measures the number of people and structures removed from the 100-year floodplain. But unlike the county, it factors in critical facilities, the number of low water crossings, and miles of roads removed from the 100-year floodplain. Combined, they represent 55% of the weight. TWDB does not weigh cost against these measures at this point in its scoring matrix. However, it separately gives 2.5% weight to benefit/cost ratios.

Flood Risk

Harris County does not directly incorporate flood risk in its evaluations. It uses a proxy called “Existing Conditions” and gives it 20% weight. Existing Conditions measures the level of service provided by a detention basin or a channel. For instance, one with a 2-year level of service floods in a 2-year storm. One with a 25-year level of service floods in a 25-year storm, etc.

TWDB does not directly measure flood risk either. Rather it measures the number of structures, people, critical facilities, low-water crossings and road miles inside the 100-year floodplain. It’s a measure of what is “at risk.” These measures collectively add up to 100% of the score for a flood-management evaluation and 60% of the score for a flood-management strategy.

Severity

Harris County gives no weight to the severity of flooding. TWDB does. TWDB measures both the average depth of flooding in a 100-year storm and the percentage of a community’s population exposed to a 100-year flood. Together, they can account for 10% of a project’s total score.

Critical Facilities

Harris County does not differentiate among structures removed from a 100-year floodplain. But TWDB recognizes critical facilities. Such facilities could include sewage and water treatment plants; bridges; schools; hospitals; police and fire stations; and more. These affect entire communities, not just individuals.

Maintenance Costs

Harris County projects maintenance costs and gives them 5% of the weight. TWDB does NOT consider costs associated with current or future operations and maintenance activities.

No Right or Wrong Way

Neither the TWDB plan, nor the County’s plan is right or wrong. Their weights reflect the needs of different people and different organizations in different places. For instance, the state is not involved in maintenance, but maintenance historically has consumed as much as 50% of Harris County Flood Control District’s budget. So it makes sense for the county to prioritize low maintenance costs.

However, I would observe that Harris County could borrow some ideas from the state, such as incorporating measures for severity of flooding, protection of life, and protection of critical facilities. The areas that had the deepest flooding and the highest loss of life during Harvey have received little flood-mitigation assistance from Harris County compared to poor areas.

*What happens when 240,000 cubic feet per second, 20-foot-high floodwaters tear through your home.*

4000 Students at Kingwood High School — *When sewage-contaminated floodwater invaded Kingwood High School to the third floor,* *4,000 students had to study *in shifts* at another high school an hour away for a year*.

What Do You Think?

TWDB seeks public comment on its proposed plan by January 1, 2024. What do you think? Based on your flood experience, do you think TWDB could do something better? Let them know.

Their plan includes more information than shown above. For instance, it also includes information on eligibility, minimum standards, program timeline, and financial assistance categories.

If you wish to comment email FIF@twdb.texas.gov and specify in the subject line “FIF IUP Comments.” Should you have any questions, please contact the TWDB by emailing the same address.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/11/23

2295 Days since Hurricane Harvey

How Kingwood Voted in Whitmire Win

In the 2023 runoff election for Mayor of Houston, John Whitmire won by a landslide. Kingwood voted for Whitmire at much higher rates than the city as a whole. He won 91.4% of the votes in Kingwood – a 10.6 to 1 margin of victory over Sheila Jackson Lee, compared to 1.9 to 1 for the City as a whole.

Most of Undecideds Sided with Whitmire

Whitmire enjoyed a 7% lead over Lee in early polls, but picked up most of the undecideds. He finished with a convincing 65.26% to 34.74% victory, not quite a 2:1 margin.

Citywide, Whitmire won by a margin of 60,275 votes. In Kingwood, he beat Jackson Lee by 8,734 votes – 14.5% of his citywide margin.

That’s remarkable for two reasons.

Kingwood has only 3% of the City’s population (about 70,000 out of 2.2 million).
Kingwood had 5% of the total voters in the runoff.

Among the City’s 1.2 million registered voters, turnout was a meager 16.92%. But among Kingwood’s 44,000 registered voters, turnout was 23.86% – 7 percentage points higher.

Ten of Kingwood’s 12 precincts had turnout in the top quintile of all precincts.

So, Kingwood had higher turnout than most areas and those who voted preferred Whitmire overwhelmingly.

Meaning of Whitmire Win

Whitmire ran a positive campaign focused on crime, the economy, drainage/infrastructure, city services and bringing Houston together.

Kingwood is traditionally Republican. Kingwood’s overwhelming endorsement of the moderate Democrat may herald a sea change in local politics. Here, in this election, in this place, at this time, voters buried partisan politics and reached across the aisle to support centrist viewpoints that benefit the majority.

Precinct-By-Precinct Rundown

Kingwood has 12 voting precincts.

*Kingwood voting precincts. 948 is all commercial and had no registered voters.*

Here are the totals for each candidate in each precinct from HarrisVotes.com. See how your neighbors voted.

Whitmire vs Lee in Kingwood
Precinct	J. Whitmire	S. J. Lee	Total	JW Win %
199	717	69	786	91.2%
340	620	74	694	89.3%
357	664	78	742	89.5%
459	1,029	106	1,135	90.7%
469	883	56	939	94.0%
546	833	39	872	95.5%
563	829	80	909	91.2%
590	668	43	711	94.0%
612	775	84	859	90.2%
635	530	77	607	87.3%
670	999	81	1,080	92.5%
758	1,094	120	1,214	90.1%

Kingwood Total	9,641	907	10,548	91.4%
Citywide Total	128,908	68,633	197,541	65.3%

Kingwood Tallies & Totals vs. Citywide in Whitmire/Lee runoff.

It appears to me that Sheila Jackson Lee’s winner-take-all politics of polarization backfired on her this time. I haven’t yet had time to check other Republican-leaning areas, but in Kingwood, it seems that Republican’s arms didn’t stretch to her extremes.

The Candidate Now Has a Mandate

While Whitmire could have won the City convincingly without Kingwood, he won it dramatically with Kingwood. He will start the job with a broad mandate.

Whitmire still has huge challenges to face. Now comes the hard part of governing a city saddled with debt.

The good news as far as the Lake Houston Gates Project is concerned: funding comes mainly from outside sources and can only be used for gates, according to current Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin.

And after 50 years in Austin, Whitmire knows how to work across the aisle and only Whitmire made flooding an issue in his campaign.

I hope Whitmire’s win ushers in a new era for the City that gives everyone a seat at the table, not just those on the far left.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/10/23

2294 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Remember Flooding? Vote for Whitmire.

This is a week for good news and bad. Yesterday, we locked in another $50 million for the Lake Houston Gates Project. But one of the key people who helped us secure that funding is himself locked in a runoff election for City of Houston Mayor. And turnout so far has been abysmally low.

Whitmire Helped Secure $50 Million for Gates from State

More about the good news first. Yesterday, the Texas Water Development Board officially confirmed a $50 million grant to help build additional floodgates on the Lake Houston Dam. That will clear the way for final design, approvals and construction.

State Senator John Whitmire, candidate for City of Houston Mayor, helped secure that money. According to Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin, who has shepherded the gates project since Hurricane Harvey, Whitmire reportedly talked several reluctant senators into supporting the grant. Whitmire has been in the Texas Senate for 40 years and sits on the Finance Committee.

So Whitmire already has some skin invested in the gates project. If elected Mayor, he could provide necessary consistency for the project as it moves forward during the next four years.

Martin also reminded me that future FEMA grants for Lake Houston will depend on a maintenance dredging program. So, we need a mayor who can work with the state legislature to help secure future dredging grants. And Whitmire has relationships with all the key players in Austin.

Turnout Abysmally Low

Now, for more on the bad news. Turnout in the Houston runoff election so far has been “sluggish” according to the Houston Chronicle.

I personally would call it “somewhere south of abysmal.” Only 131,887 people in a City with roughly 1.75 million adults voted early. So, less than 10% of Houston adults have voted so far in what could be the most consequential election of this generation!

Why Mayor is Crucial

After Harvey, the Lake Houston Area Task Force identified more gates for Lake Houston as one of the three most crucial projects to reduce flooding in the area. In case you’re new here, this is what the San Jacinto West Fork looked like during Harvey.

*Looking south toward Humble along US59.* *Water here was more than 20 feet above flood stage*, *the highest in Harris County* *and knocked out the southbound bridge for almost a year.*

The flood affected 16,000 homes and 3,300 businesses in the Lake Houston area. That included 44% of all the businesses in the Lake Houston Chamber and 100% of all the businesses in Kingwood Town Center, which still hasn’t fully recovered. At the time, many people said, “If it happens again, I’m leaving.” That said…

It will likely take four years to complete the gates – the entire term of the next mayor. We need a mayor who will remain committed to the project.

The Mayor has the power to prioritize the project…or not.

Only Whitmire Has Made Flooding an Issue

In that regard, Whitmire is the only candidate who made flooding a central element of his campaign.

This election could determine the future direction of our community and the City for decades to come.

Four 500-Year Storms in Eight Years

And lest you think a 500-year flood only happens once every 500 years, I would remind you that four hit this area in the last eight years: Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey, and Imelda.

We Have Power to Swing This Election

Now for the final piece of good news. So few people are voting throughout the City that Kingwood has the power to swing this election on Saturday.

Only 8,381 people have voted so far at the Kingwood Community Center – in a community of more than 70,000 people. While that’s one of the highest totals in the county, it still leaves the citywide outcome in doubt.

So please vote. Get your neighbors to vote. And get your neighbors to get their neighbors to vote. Etc.

When I voted early, I got to the polling place and back before my screen saver kicked in. It took less than 20 minutes round trip. With so much at stake, there’s just no excuse not to vote.

Voting Times, Places, Ballots, Etc.

Remember, races for several council positions and city controller remain open. View your sample ballot here.

Polls will open at 7AM and close at 7PM.

Vote at any of these locations.

For more voting information, visit HarrisVotes.com.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/8/2023

2292 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Editorial: What Happens When Leaders Become Misleaders

Misleading statements. Broken promises. Redefining commonly accepted meanings of words. Math that doesn’t add up. Gobbledygook explanations. These practices have all become “business as usual” in Harris County Commissioners Court. And they come with a high price tag.

Bait-and-Switch Bonds

To get the 2022 Road and Parks Bond approved, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Commissioner Adrian Garcia, and Commissioner Rodney Ellis voted to allocate a minimum of $220 million to each precinct. They heavily promoted the guaranteed minimum in pre-referendum advertising, online and in community meetings.

*Screen capture from County bond web site shows two promises were broken.*

A short while after voters approved the bond, the Democrats voted to shortchange Precinct 3 by $32.5 million – even though P3 has 47% of the county’s roads and 35% of the county’s parks. They also voted to give $110 million to Harris County Engineering for administration.

It was a blatant bait-and-switch scheme.

Commissioner Ramsey has been trying to win back the amount P3 voters were shortchanged. But in a 10/31/2023 meeting, Commissioners Garcia and Ellis implied that their portions of funding were already spent, so they couldn’t be reallocated.

Said Garcia, “Right now, of the allocation that I’ve got, my guys have already let that out the door. Yeah.”

Ellis replied, “Yeah, we’ve already committed our funds as well.”

However, when I asked the Harris County Engineering Department for a list of projects funded by the 2022 Road and Parks Bond, they could find no records responsive to my request.

Reviewing bids approved by Harris County’s Commissioners Court between January 1 and November 6 of this year showed that Ellis has spent less than a million dollars on road improvements. Ellis and Garcia together spent less than $7.7 million on road projects. So how did $562 million get “out the door”?

They may have “plans” for spending $562 million, but so far, they’ve only actually spent somewhere between $0.00 and $7.7 million from the bond.

Their choice of words implied that even if they wanted to achieve a fairer balance, it was too late. Did they chose those words accidentally or intentionally?

Welcome to the semantic rubber room.

*Harris County Commissioners Court on 10/31/2023. Discussion of Road and Parks Bond begins at 2 hours and 30 minutes into the meeting.*

Explanation For Unequal Minimum Distribution

In the same meeting, Judge Hidalgo and Budget Director Daniel Ramos tried to explain why they shortchanged Precinct 3 in the first place.

Lina Hidalgo’s Explanation

Hidalgo said, “What I have here, and maybe Ramos can jump in, is that we approved 220 to each precinct and the remaining balance according to SVI, because we hadn’t thought about … there’s overhead costs of 110 million. And I think that just literally nobody thought about it. I asked my team, ‘Go back at the notes and see if you know anybody had that anywhere and just hit it or whatever.’ Well, it’s not anywhere. So then by the time January rolled around, the budget folks or whomever came back and said, you know, we actually have to shave 110 off the top. And so, then we changed it from 220 to 175, given that we shaved 110 off the top. So, it’s 175 minimum for each precinct and the rest according to SVI.”

SVI refers to the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index.

Issues with Hidalgo Explanation

First, she broke a promise to voters. But there are several other problems:

If overhead costs were really $110 million, you would reduce the minimum for each precinct by $27.5 million, not $45 million. Said another way, $45 million per precinct adds up to $180 million, not $110.
Why are we paying current employee salaries out of bonds that will require interest payments for a decade or more? Especially when the County said it wouldn’t use any bond money to fund day-to-day operations. (See screen capture above.)
The much larger flood bond in 2018 had zero for administrative overhead (although admittedly there were $10 million worth of legal and accounting fees associated with buying the bonds).

Ramos Explanation

Budget Director Daniel Ramos then said to Hidalgo, “You’re correct. So, I believe in January, sorry, the first or second quarter, this new constituted body came back and changed the formula. One: to carve off 110% or, sorry, 10% off of the 900 million for roads and parks to allocate to the county engineer and then precinct 2 put up a motion to do 70, a little over 70%, which is the 175 number plus, and the remainder, which is 29.8%, give or take, for SVI. And that’s where we are today. And that vote passed four zero …”

Problems with Ramos’ Explanation

While purporting to support Hidalgo, Ramos’ explanation contradicts hers. Seventy percent of 220 is 154, not 175. The bond was for $1.1 billion, not $900 million. And his explanation has the feel of a major-league curve ball.

The 2022 Road and Parks Bond was a classic bait-and-switch scheme. And it’s not the first time such deception happened.

Flood-Bond Deception

The same leaders did the same thing after the 2018 flood bond passed. Ellis even bragged openly in commissioners court about how he tricked voters.

The three Democrats promised to focus flood control spending on the hardest hit areas first. But they have not. They defined “worst first” to mean the “poorest” watersheds, not those that had the “most severe flooding.”

Even though language in the bond promised an “equitable distribution” of funds, the Democrats adopted a formula based largely on income and social vulnerability, without regard to flood risk or damage. That heavily skewed distribution of bond money. As a result, 65% of the flood bond projects that lost funding this year were in Precinct 3.

Such explanations and actions undermine the credibility of elected officials and trust in government.

These are not little, white lies. They are whoppers involving billions of dollars.

Worse, because of inflation, affluent areas that desperately need flood mitigation may get none. Twenty-percent inflation since 2020 has trimmed $1 billion off the purchasing power of the 2018 flood bond.

So areas that ranked low on the Democrat’s Equity Prioritization Framework may get little or no help from the tax dollars they approved.

Consequences of Loss of Trust

Declining trust in government reduces support for government action to address a range of policy concerns, including flooding. Distrust makes it harder to make collective decisions that advance the common good. It fosters polarization in politics. And undermines faith in elections.

Loss of trust could jeopardize future bonds. After the bait and switch with the 2018 Flood Bond, the 2022 Road and Parks bond received far less support, even with the guaranteed minimum per precinct.

To come together, leaders must stop misleading. They must promise what they will deliver and deliver what they promise. Or we’ll all wind up in the semantic rubber room wondering what’s real and what’s not.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/7/23

2291 Days since Hurricane Harvey

2023 Hurricane Season Ranked 4th in Named Storms

Adapted from NOAA Post: The above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Nov. 30. It was characterized by record-warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, a strong El Niño, and the fourth highest number of named storms in a season.

NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite captured Hurricane Idalia approaching the western coast of Florida while Hurricane Franklin churned in the Atlantic Ocean at 5:01 p.m. EDT on August 29, 2023. (Image credit: NOAA Satellites )

20 Named Storms, One of Which was Unnamed

The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023. That ranks fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950. The unnamed-named storm was a tropical storm in January that was retroactively classified as a tropical storm.

Seven storms were hurricanes and three intensified to major hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

*The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023, ranking 4th for most-named storms in a year. Tropical cyclone names are selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (Image credit: NOAA)*

Only One U.S. Landfalling Hurricane

Hurricane Idalia was the only U.S. landfalling hurricane in 2023. It made landfall as a category-3 hurricane on Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the southeast.

Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Emerald Isle, North Carolina, on Sept. 23 causing widespread heavy rainfall, gusty winds and significant river and storm surge flooding in portions of eastern North Carolina.

Hurricane Lee made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone in Nova Scotia, Canada, on Sept. 16. Swells generated by Lee caused dangerous surf and rip currents along the entire U.S. Atlantic coast. Strong winds with hurricane‑force gusts from Lee caused extensive power outages in Maine and in parts of Canada.

Season Fell within Predicted Range

The 2023 Atlantic seasonal activity fell within the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes in the August updated outlook.

“The Atlantic basin produced the most named storms of any El Nino influenced year in the modern record,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “The record-warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic provided a strong counterbalance to the traditional El Nino impacts.”

Eastern Pacific Also Above Normal, but Within Predicted Range

The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was also above normal with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes. From Aug. 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.

Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on Oct. 25 as a category-5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the eastern Pacific after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.

The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin. Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.

Hurricane season activity for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific fell within predicted ranges.

Hazards Felt Well Inland Underscores Need for Planning

“Another active hurricane season comes to a close where hazards from the storms extended well inland from the landfall location,” said NOAA National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan, Ph.D. “This underscores the importance of having a plan to stay safe whether you’re at the coast or inland.”

New System Improved Intensity Predictions, Response Times

NOAA’s new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System helped National Hurricane Center forecasters improve intensity predictions this season. NOAA’s intensity forecasts showed Hurricane Idalia as a major hurricane impacting the coast of Florida as early as Aug. 28.

This lead time gave those in threatened areas more time to prepare and respond, and there were no storm surge fatalities from Idalia despite storm surge inundation of as much as 12 feet above ground level in some areas. Further, extending the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook product from five to seven days, this season provided emergency managers more time to prepare and stage resources before a storm.

NOAA’s Hurricane Research and Response

This season, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew 468 mission hours to collect atmospheric data that is critical to hurricane forecasting and research, passing through the eye of a hurricane 120 times and deploying over 1,400 scientific instruments. Since 2020 through this 2023 season, NOAA’s two Lockheed WP-3D Orion have flown 40% more hurricane mission flights than the preceding four years (2016-2019).

NOAA celebrated the first operational launch of a Black Swift drone from a NOAA WP-3D Orion to gather atmospheric data in and around Hurricane Tammy. Further, the first successful coordination of a low-flying drone (Anduril’s Altius 600), atmospheric profilers (dropsondes), and ocean profilers (bathythermographs) also launched from a NOAA WP-3D Orion.

Observations and information from these deployments are being evaluated to determine the feasibility of using the data to help with hurricane forecasting in the future.

NOAA’s Beechcraft King Air flew 28 mission hours to collect aerial imagery used for emergency response after Hurricanes Idalia and Lee. Following Hurricane Idalia, NOAA’s National Ocean Service provided support to enable safe maritime navigation, gathering survey data for 36.8 linear nautical miles and identifying 29 potential obstructions along Florida’s coastal waterways.

NOAA also worked to identify hazards caused by capsized vessels, damaged docks and piers, parts of homes and other types of marine debris, and shared findings with Florida’s debris task force following Hurricane Idalia.

New Use of Weather Satellites

NOAA’s geostationary and polar-orbiting weather satellites provided vital information for monitoring and forecasting the hurricanes and tropical weather that threatened our lives and property this season. Forecasters used one-minute geostationary satellite imagery to assess structure changes during the rapid intensity of storms such as Idalia, Lee and Otis.

NOAA’s polar-orbiting satellites orbit the Earth from pole to pole 14 times a day, providing full global coverage twice daily. Throughout the hurricane season, these satellites made sophisticated and precise observations of the atmosphere, ocean and land, which were critical to developing daily and 3-5 day forecasts.

Timing for Next Year’s Forecast and Official 2023 Report

The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports for 2023, including synoptic history, meteorological statistics, casualties and damages, and the post-analysis best track, will be published on the 2023 Tropical Cyclone Report site in March 2024.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, will issue its 2024 hurricane seasonal outlook in May 2024. The hurricane season officially begins on June 1.

Adapted from NOAA Story by Bob Rehak

2290 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Pros, Cons of Strategies to Reduce Flood Damage

Last week, I published a three-part series on the root causes of flooding. Some readers immediately started leaping to solutions. But different mitigation strategies each have pros and cons. That prompted the idea for this post. Flood control experts say that there are only three things you can do with excess stormwater:

Store it.
Convey it.
Avoid it.

Within each of these high-level strategies, a range of tactical alternatives exists. Let’s look at them and their pros and cons.

Storage

Storage alternatives include detention basins, reservoirs and levees. They can trap excess water during storms and release it slowly after the storm passes.

PROS

Can be multi-use. Dry detention basins can double as parks or sports fields. Large reservoirs can supply water and recreation.
Can develop new habitat for fish. Plants and other filters can improve stormwater quality.
Can be a community amenity or economic feature.
Easy for public to understand how they work.

CONS

Requires extensive rights-of-way, which can be costly, time consuming and politically difficult
Usually involves destruction of the original habitat/land cover, and sometimes even whole neighborhoods
Requires constant maintenance in perpetuity
Expensive and difficult to retrofit and/or repair, as we’re seeing with the Lake Houston Dam gates.

*A small part of Willow Water Hole at South Post Oak and Hwy 90. Provides recreational alternatives and water quality features, but requires constant upkeep.*

Conveyance

Increasing conveyance usually involves: channel widening/modifications; concrete-lining to accelerate throughput; straightening channels to reduce travel time; or creating new, supplementary pathways such as storm tunnels.

PROS

Proven to be very effective.
Relatively simple concept and easy to understand.

CONS

Can require extensive right-of-way acquisition and relocations of homes/businesses.
Can destroy habitat along channel banks.
In urban areas, modifying bridge crossings and moving utility lines adds significant expense. For instance, since 2000, we have spent approximately half a billion dollars to widen Brays Bayou and rebuild 30 bridges across it.
Can move the flooding problem from one location to another.

*Brays Bayou near Texas Medical Center illustrates difficulty of widening channels in urban areas.*

Avoidance

The avoidance strategy involves several different strategies: building on high ground far from rivers; elevating structures; conserving floodplains; implementing better building codes and more.

PROS

Prevention is always less expensive than correction and usually the least expensive option.
Floodplain conservation can result in dual-use opportunities (i.e., parks/trails). From a developer’s point of view, homes near green space usually fetch higher prices.
Floodplain preservation is low/no maintenance. Nature heals itself.
Structure elevation can significantly reduce risk of flooding, but it’s much harder and more costly after flood damage than during original construction.

CONS

New regulations/building codes can be difficult to get approved. FEMA estimates that adoption of hazard-resistant building codes saved $32 billion during the last 20 years and could save another $132 billion by 2040. But Texas hasn’t updated its building codes since 2012.
Floodplain acquisition can be very expensive. And doing it before surrounding land is developed means the Benefit/Cost Ratio probably won’t qualify for federal assistance.
Pier-and-beam foundations are not as popular as slab-on-grade foundation for single-family, residential development. They’re also usually more expensive.

Once intended to be a subdivision within Kingwood, the 158 acre East End Park is now one of the community’s most popular attractions. *It draws approximately 100,000 visitors each year.* *It also buffers surrounding homes from flooding.*

Finding the Best Alternative

No one answer exists for every situation. To find the optimal solution, engineers study multiple alternatives and weigh their costs against the benefits. Then comes the hard part – finding the money to build them. No one budgets for disasters. We typically deal with disasters after the fact.

Altogether, projects such as these can take a decade or more to develop. And during that time, flood risk can be a shifting target because of upstream development and revisions to rainfall probability statistics. Personally, I’m a big advocate of caution when it comes to living near water. Your best bet is to avoid flooding.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/5/2023 based on information from leading hydrologists

2289 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Northpark Expansion Presses Forward While Fighting Entergy Obstacle

In the last two weeks, progress on the Northpark expansion project has slowed somewhat but is still pressing forward. Illegally dumped oil, utility surprises, and a traffic signal have all created bumps in the road, so to speak.

But there’s also good news to report: the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (LHRA) wired a $53,000 payment for a Union-Pacific (UP) easement to the railroad. That clears the way for construction of ground-level turn lanes near where the bridge over the UP tracks will go.

Let’s look at what’s happened in the last two weeks and what’s coming up.

Contaminated Soil Isolated

Two weeks ago while preparing to work on a detention basin on the north side of Northpark at US59, contractors encountered oil dumped years ago. That forced crews to see how far the pollution extended. They excavated a wide area and isolated contaminated dirt.

*All contaminated soil was isolated with plastic sheeting before the rains last week.*

Contractors are now getting ready to remove the contaminated soil to a safe site for permanent disposal where contaminants can’t leach into groundwater. While that cost time, it will make the site safer in the long run.

*Looking west at area where north retention basin will be excavated.*

Entergy Estimated It Would Take 50 Weeks to Move a Transformer

In other news, an Entergy consultant in The Woodlands has tried to hold the Northpark expansion project up for two years. He wanted an extra half million dollars (above and beyond the $700,000 already budgeted) to move some power lines and a transformer near the Exxon station at US59.

The consultant demanded 50 weeks to move the ground-mounted transformer alone. His motive was unclear. Was he using a not-so-subtle form of extortion to make himself look better in his client’s eyes?

It’s also unclear whether Entergy, a company that trumpets its social responsibility, knew about the consultant’s demands. Entergy is a Fortune 500 company with 3 million customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.

The Northpark Expansion project is designed to create an all-weather evacuation route for 70,000 people. One would think that a socially minded company with a $4.4 billion rate base (in Texas alone) could move a transformer in less than a year if it really wanted to.

Ralph De Leon, project manager for the Northpark expansion project, finally managed to bypass the consultant and is now working directly with Entergy executives in Beaumont.

Lawyers for LHRA have negotiated a settlement in lieu of condemnation. Hopefully the Entergy issue will resolve amicably before the end of the year. The agreement will be on the December 14, LHRA board meeting agenda.

Traffic Light Alternative

At Russell-Palmer, contractors are still waiting for the City of Houston to change a pole mounted traffic signal to a wire-mounted one. That will enable them to continue installing box culverts when Centerpoint returns to finish moving its gas line. Centerpoint crews were MIA during the holidays.

*Traffic signal in median at Northpark and Russell Palmer Road must be replaced with wire-mounted system for now.*

Replacement of Ditch with Box Culverts

The City of Houston has approved the plan to detour a waterline across Northpark to the Parkwood Baptist Church (see upper right corner of photo above). The original contractors didn’t install the waterline deep enough. That created a conflict with the 6’x8′ box culverts being installed in the median. But the water-line detour should be resolved soon.

The culverts will replace the ditch in the median so that the road can be expanded inward, adding an extra lane of traffic in each direction.

*Looking west in opposite direction from over Russell Palmer.*

Plan for Next Three Weeks

Construction is always difficult, even in the best of times. The holidays make it even more so. Weather permitting, here are the priorities for the next three weeks.

Continue burying reinforced culvert at Outfall B depending on weather
Alternatively, continue working on 8″ waterline on south side of Northpark between railroad tracks and King’s Mill
Install 12″ waterline in front of the Chick-Fil-A.
Complete filling in around new sidewalks west of US59
Mobilize on December 4th to begin tree relocation throughout the month of December.
Continued Retention Pond Excavation on north side at US59.

For More Information

For more information about the project including construction plans, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/3/23

2287 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

From Green to Gone in Three Weeks

I took the first picture below two years ago before the clearing of Northpark South started. All the rest were taken during the three weeks between November 9 and December 1, 2023.

Looking west toward the San Jacinto West Fork from the west end of Northpark Drive at Sorters-McClellan Road, this is what you saw before clearing started.

*Northpark South, October 31, 2021. Note pocket of wetlands in middle.* *Intersection in bottom left was under eight feet of water during Harvey.*

*Clearing starts in wetlands. November 9, 2023.*

*Another seven days. November 24, 2023.*

In the pictures above, note a sister development in the upper right corner called Northpark Woods by the same developer, Century Land Holdings of Texas, LLC. The developer totally cleared it, too.

Of course, it’s easier to grade the land, fill in wetlands, and put in streets that way. But it doesn’t slow floodwaters down or soak them up. That will soon be the job of homes and carpets. Lots of them.

The developer asked the Houston Planning Commission for a variance to build 235 homes on lots as small as 5000 square feet here.

Getting Rid of Green

What do you do with all that timber? Turn it into 2x4s? Mulch? Paper? Pencils? Something socially useful?

*Why not just burn it and save all that trouble?*

You can save the hauling costs.

Let people breathe it. Not a problem if you’re a developer with headquarters in Colorado!

*Looking east toward Kingwood and Northpark Drive at top of frame.*

This is how you go from green to gone in three weeks. If it were the only such story, it might not be worthy of mentioning. But you can see this same story being played out relentlessly across the watershed.

For More Information

To learn more about the flood risks in this area, see these posts:

11/11/23 – Clearing Wetlands, Floodplains
11/28/23 – Draining through Sand Mines
11/25/23 – 40 Acres of Timber Turned into Toothpicks

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/2/23

2286 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.