Here’s a river/lake report as of 7a.m. Wednesday, 9/18/19. During the early morning hours, TS Imelda was downgraded to a depression. The center of the storm moved north and is now over northern Harris County. Parts of the Lake Houston area received 4-5 inches of rain. Regardless, thanks to aggressive action by the City and luck in rainfall patterns, at this hour, no flood threat exists in our area from rivers or Lake Houston.
Little Rain So Far Upstream on West Fork
Rainfall around Lake Conroe overnight. Source: Harris County Flood Warning System
Luckily, very little rain fell upstream from us on the West Fork. In fact, the Lake Conroe area generally received less than a quarter inch of rain. Lake Conroe is releasing NO water at this hour. It’s level has not changed appreciably over night. It remains about 2.5 feet below normal.
West Fork and Lake Houston Still Below Normal Levels
Rainfall in Lake Houston Area. Source: Harris County Flood Warning SystemWest Fork status at Lake Houston Parkway. Source: Harris County Flood Warning System.
The West Lake Houston Parkway gage at the West Fork received a little more than four inches of rain in the last 24 hours. But the river is still within 6 feet of overflowing and the Lake itself is still about a foot below normal.
Source: USGS as reported by Coastal Water Authority.
Openning Gates Reduced Flood Threat
Source: Coastal Water Authority
Looking at the right of the graph above, you can see how yesterday’s decision to open the gates on Lake Houston lowered the level by an addition 1.3 feet. This helped offset the heavy rains that fell directly over the lake an in nearby tributaries.
The heaviest rain in the Lake Houston area appears to be 5.72 inches in Liberty County on the East Fork northeast of Lake Houston Park.
Overbank Flooding Limited to Southern Harris County So Far
The only flooding in Harris County from the heavy rains yesterday occurred in the extreme southern part of the county where the heaviest rains fell.
Flash Flood Watch Remains In Effect
Remain alert throughout today. A flash flood watch remains in effect for our area through tomorrow morning and will likely be extended.
Forecasters expect the heaviest rains with daytime heating. They predict that a band of rain will set up east of US59 this afternoon.
Conditions could change rapidly, especially now that the ground is fully saturated.
In the meantime, remain alert for street flooding and avoid travel if possible.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2019 at 7 a.m.
750 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Screen-Shot-2019-09-18-at-5.54.43-AM.png?fit=1870%2C1370&ssl=113701870adminadmin2019-09-18 06:45:182019-09-18 06:48:00Wednesday AM River, Lake Report: No Problems Yet
Overnight, the offshore low that had only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical system, turned into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm called Imelda.
Houston Under Flash Flood Watch
As of 6 p.m. Monday evening, Harris County and the entire Houston area is under a flash flood watch.
If the storm stays on its present trajectory, the center should go right through the Lake Houston area. Note in the graphic above that the heaviest rainfall will be east of US59 along a line between Houston and Livingston.
Rainfall Totals
The NWS predicts the three-day total rainfall for the storm could reach 6-8 inches, though professionals caution that much higher amounts are possible. For instance, if you live east of US59 and the track of Imelda, according to Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner, you might get up to 10-15 inches.
As the storm approaches from the southwest, the Lake Houston area will be on the dirty side, meaning we will get higher rainfall amounts than further west.
Lake Levels Down To Create Extra Buffer Against Flooding
However, effective immediately, the Lake level will be lowered to 40.9 feet, 2.6 feet below normal. This will create an extra buffer against flooding.
Houston City Council Member Dave Martin says, “All gates will remain open until the inclement weather threat leaves the area. After the weather threat has passed, gates will stay open until a level of 41.5 feet is reached allowing for the planned maintenance project to resume.”
Dry Ground Will Absorb Initial Rainfall, Then Look Out
Because of extremely dry weather during July, August and early September, the ground should absorb much of the initial rain. However, because the rate could exceed 1-2 inches per hour at times, runoff will rapidly increase.
The first threat from this storm will be street flooding. Secondarily, it will be bayou and river flooding. You can track the latter at Harris County Flood Warning System and make sure you check out their near-real-time inundation feature.
Protective Actions
Be Prepared. People should bring their pets inside and delay travel or outdoor activities during periods of heavy rainfall. If travel is unavoidable, reduce your speed to avoid hydroplaning.
If a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area, DO NOT travel.
Property owners should ensure that street drains and ditches are clear of debris, so storm water can flow without obstructions. Blockages of drains, ditches, and culverts are the most frequent cause of flooding in neighborhoods.
Clear Street Drains
Secure items that might float away in heavy rain and become lodged in drains or culverts. Avoid street parking to protect your vehicle and allow clear passage for response vehicles.
Turn Around, Don’t Drown®
Do not drive through flooded areas. If you see water covering the road, do not attempt to cross it. Only a few inches of water can float a vehicle . If you find yourself in a dangerous situation where your vehicle is taking on water, get out of the vehicle, get to a higher position, and call 911.
Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing creeks and bayous to rise and possibly exceed their banks. Stay informed of current conditions and avoid traveling near creeks and bayous.
Avoid Traveling during Periods of Heavy Rain
Rain can reduce visibility and prevent you from seeing the road ahead, which could lead to accidents.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 6 pm Tuesday, 9/17/19
749 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/HGX_loop.gif?fit=600%2C550&ssl=1550600adminadmin2019-09-17 18:31:272019-09-17 18:39:42Lake Level Reports in Advance of TS Imelda; Where to Find Up-to-Minute Info During Storm
Lake Charles and Houston radars show numerous clusters and bands of heavy rainfall across Gulf waters associated with deep tropical moisture. These bands will soon begin to move onshore.
Lake Charles radar shows numerous bands of heavy showers just offshore headed this way.
Houston Hobby radar shows similar banding.
Cumulative Rainfall Potential Through Friday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Wednesday this Week.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, models have come into agreement. They predict a surface-low pressure system may form just offshore on Tuesday and drift inland over southeast Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system only a 10% chance of tropical formation…
…BUT regardless heavy rainfall should result.
Ingredients appear to be coming together late Tuesday through Thursday for a heavy rainfall event over the region.
Endless Supply of Tropical Moisture
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, “An endless supply of moisture will pump into the region. Formation of slow-moving, training rain bands appears likely over portions of the area.”
This weather system could produce excessive rainfall, enough to saturate dry ground in a short period of time. Rains today and Tuesday especially south of I-10 will saturate dry ground. Conditions by Wednesday should support much more run-off, over a wider area.
10-15 Inches Possible
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches will be likely over much of the area with isolated totals of 10-15 inches possible.
Hourly rainfall rates of 3-4 inches will be possible under any training bands and any slow-moving clusters resulting in rapid-onset urban flash flooding. The threat for creek, bayou, and river flooding will increase by mid-week as grounds become increasingly saturated and run-off increases.
Flash flooding will be possible.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2019as of 9 a.m.
748 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/image001.gif?fit=748%2C562&ssl=1562748adminadmin2019-09-16 12:03:152019-09-16 12:03:26Potential for Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding Increasing This Week
Mark your calendar. On Wednesday, October 2, 2019, from 4:30 to 6:00pm, Tim Garfield, a Kingwood resident and one of the world’s leading geoscientists, will deliver a talk at the University of Houston. The subject: how the mouth bar of the San Jacinto West Fork contributed to flooding during Hurricane Harvey and what its continued presence means for the future of residents in the Lake Houston Area.
About the Speaker and Sponsor
Garfield has been one of the leaders in the grassroots movement to mitigate the influence of the mouth bar on flooding. The University of Houston History Department and Houston History Magazine have also led the movement to document the impacts of flooding on the development of Houston.
Event Details
The flier below gives more specifics about the talk.
Driving and Parking Instruction for the University of Houston Honors Commons
The event is free and open to the public. It will be held at the University of Houston Honors Commons. To learn how to get there, where to park and how to navigate from parking to the event, see below.
Debbie Z. Harwell, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of History at UH and the Editor of Houston History Magazine, arranged this event. Kudos to Garfield and Harwell for documenting the impacts of Harvey and geomorphic processes on the history of Houston.
This is one of those rare times when human history and geologic history intersect. Don’t miss it!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2019
746 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/San-Jacinto-River-Mouth-Bar-Tim-Garflied-flyer-1.jpg?fit=1500%2C989&ssl=19891500adminadmin2019-09-14 19:37:482019-09-14 19:37:56UH Center for Public History Sponsors Talk by Tim Garfield on Influence of Mouth Bar on Harvey Flooding
City, county and state leaders will discuss their priorities for the distribution of FEMA money. Will they match your priorities?The Lake Houston Area should turn out in force for this meeting.
Houston Stronger Speakers
Chief speakers include:
Stephen Costello, City of Houston Chief Resiliency Officer
W. Nim Kidd, Chief, Texas Division of Emergency Management
Russ Poppe, Executive Director, Harris County Flood Control District
Steve Costello, Chief Recovery Officer, City of Houston ‘
Player yet-to-be-named from the Texas General Land Office
Time, Date, Place
Houston Stronger will host the meeting from 10-11-30 at:
HCC West Houston Institute
2811 Hayes Road
Houston, TX
Tickets are free but only 300 seats exis,t so sign up quickly. Only registered people may attend.
One Meeting that Matters
Meeting details are sketchy at this time. But organizers tell me the forum will focus on how to spend FEMA money coming to Texas.
A large part of that decision depends on advocacy. So a large turnout from the Lake Houston Area will raise our visibility and help our cause. This meeting matters! Let’s fill the room and make our voices heard. If you click on the link to Houston Stronger priorities, you will immediately see the importance of a strong turnout.
I will post more details on this Houston Stronger meeting as they become available.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2019
745 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Houston-Stronger.jpg?fit=1500%2C831&ssl=18311500adminadmin2019-09-13 15:28:272019-09-13 15:28:35Mark Your Calendar: Houston Stronger to Host Public Forum About Flood Risk Reduction Strategies and Action
Sometimes humor is the best way to deal with a difficult situation. This has to be the funniest video I have seen in a long time! Written and directed by Julia Fowler. From the Southern Women Channel.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2019 with thanks to Jacque Havelka for the link
745 days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Screen-Shot-2019-09-13-at-10.17.58-AM-copy.jpg?fit=1500%2C836&ssl=18361500adminadmin2019-09-13 10:21:102019-09-13 10:30:43Sh%t Southern Women Say in a Hurricane
In June and July, Harris County Flood Control cleared the upper portion of Ben’s Branch near Northpark Drive and Woodland Hills. Now, excavation of the lower portion of Ben’s Branch between Kingwood Drive and the YMCA on West Lake Houston Parkway has begun.
Looking south from the Kingwood Drive Bridge over Ben’s Branch. Fuddrucker’s and Remax are out of frame to the left.
One of the Largest Drainage Features in Kingwood
Ben’s Branch is one of the major drainage features in Kingwood. The purpose of the project: to restore conveyance. The stream/ditch cuts diagonally through the center of the community from the new St. Martha Church to King’s Harbor. Thousands of homes and businesses depend on Ben’s Branch to evacuate storm water efficiently.
Prior to Harvey, the ditch had not been cleared out in decades. It had become seriously clogged from erosion. Kingwood badly needs this maintenance.
Damages Near Ben’s Branch
During Harvey, Ben’s Branch contributed to the flooding of:
Every business in Kingwood’s busy Town Center area
Every home in the Enclave
Hundreds of homes in Kings Forest, Bear Branch, Foster’s Mill and Kingwood Greens
Kingwood Country Club’s Forest Course and Golf Advantage School
The Kingwood YMCA and Library
Kingwood High School
Hundreds of apartments
Twelve seniors in Kingwood Village Estates also died as a result of injuries sustained during evacuation or the stress of dealing with condos that the storm destroyed.
Construction will last through the end of the year. HCFCD will remove approximately 77,000 cubic yards of sediment. Crews began work at Kingwood Drive and are heading downstream. They have not yet reached the point where Ben’s Branch turns east, cuts under West Lake Houston Parkway, and then curves around the Y to head south again.
The project extends from Kingwood Drive downstream to 1,800 linear feet downstream of West Lake Houston Parkway.
HCFCD project started at the red line and is heading south.
Example of how badly Ben’s Branch has become silted. Approximately 70-80% of the conveyance was lost. The little orange dot in the upper center of the frame is a member of the HCFCD survey crew. Image taken last spring, looking west from West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge.
Traffic and Other Impacts
Construction equipment will access the work area via the established access points from Kingwood Drive, Bens View, West Lake Houston Parkway, and Denmere. The contractor will use heavy construction equipment such as dump trucks, excavators and bulldozers. Motorists are urged to be alert to truck traffic when passing near construction access points.
In order to repair and remove sediment from Ben’s Branch, the contractor will need to remove some trees and vegetation along Bens Branch, and in areas designated for access to the channel from the public road right of way.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/BensBranch_04.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2019-09-12 12:31:172019-09-12 12:31:25Excavation of Lower Portion of Ben’s Branch Kicking into High Gear
This week, Harris County Flood Control is completing work on a large section of Taylor Gully between Rustling Elms and the Harris/Montgomery County line. Said Beth Walters of the Flood Control District, “Serco (the contractor) is replacing an outfall pipe Tuesday; this work should be complete in a few days. This is the last pipe to be replaced, and then all major work from Rustling Elms upstream to the county line will be completed.” The work began about two months ago.
Taylor Gully Images from Jeff Miller
Flood Control contractors inspect the old, rusted outfall pipe near Rustling Elms last week. Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller.
Reverse angle shows existing pipe before replacement.Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller.
Contractors were clearing turtles and fish from the old manhole.
Last weekend, new, 6-foot replacement pipe was standing by, ready for Taylor Gully installation. Photo taken by Jeff Miller.
New pipe fully installed. Photo taken 9/11 by Jeff Miller.
Excess dirt has been removed, ditch excavated, backslope interceptor swales restored, banks smoothed, and new backslope drains installed.Ready for the severe weather test. Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller.
Small Amount of Clean Up Work Remains
Miller reported addition excavation work happening this morning near Rustling Elms on Taylor Gully.
Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller of additional cleanup work between Rustling Elms and Bassingham.
Once again, a shout-out to Barbara Hilburn who raised the alarm about clogged ditches and beat that drum for more than a year until projects like this began.
Posted by Bob Rehak with Images and Reporting from Jeff Miller
743 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/image003.jpg?fit=640%2C480&ssl=1480640adminadmin2019-09-11 18:23:482019-09-11 18:26:00HCFCD Wraps Up Taylor Gully Project Between Rustling Elms and County Line
Over the weekend, Rachel Taylor, a Lake Houston area resident who lives near the mouth bar sent me the video below. It shows an idle dredge near its starting point. The video, plus reports from boaters, fueled speculation that the mouth bar dredging had concluded. That fact was confirmed this afternoon by Houston City Council Member Dave Martin. His office issued a press release stating that FEMA had finished dredging 500,000 cubic yards of sediment from the San Jacinto West Fork Mouth Bar.
Lake Houston area resident Rachel Taylor shot this video of the Great Lakes Dredge on 9/8/2019. The dredge had returned to its starting point, fueling speculation that it had completed its mission assignment.
Said Council Member Dave Martin, “The Federal Emergency Management Administration’s (FEMA) mission assignment modification to address partial removal of the San Jacinto River West Fork mouth-bar has concluded.” The mission assignment authorized the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to remove an additional 497,400 cubic yards of debris from the West Fork near its confluence with Lake Houston. As of September 3, 2019, USACE removed 500,000 cubic yards of debris from the mouth-bar.
However, Martin never accepted the amount of debris included in the mission modification and continues to fight that number to this day.
Running, Year-Long Argument Over Volume
Council Member Martin and the City of Houston, through Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello, argued for almost a year to remove more sediment, believing that 500,000 cubic yards was much too low. But their pleas have fallen on deaf ears.
According to Martin, FEMA cannot explain how 497,400 cubic yards was calculated, even while the City of Houston has provided verifiable scientific data showing the volume deposited by Harvey near the mouth bar was 1.4 million cubic yards.
During a meeting in June, 2019, FEMA representatives verified the City’s estimate was sound. That lead Martin to believe another contract extension was feasible. In August, FEMA representatives again stated, “Your (City of Houston) data is NOT bad data”, leaving Martin with lingering questions as to why no additional modification had been granted.
As a result of the most recent meeting held in Austin, Texas, with representatives from FEMA, USACE, Texas Division of Emergency Management, City of Houston, and Governor Greg Abbott’s office, Council Member Martin along with Mayor Sylvester Turner have sent a letter to our Federal Congressional Delegation requesting action be taken to address the Hurricane Harvey debris remaining in the mouth-bar. This letter urges Senator John Cornyn, Senator Ted Cruz, Chairman Kevin Brady, and Congressman Dan Crenshaw to continue to support recovery of our area through requesting an additional mission modification from FEMA. It would enable dredging another one million cubic yards of sediment related to Hurricane Harvey.
Overall, dredging in the San Jacinto removed more than 2 million cubic yards of sediment. That will help reduce the effects of potential future flooding, but it will not restore the conveyance of the river.
Granting a second mission modification allows the use of existing pre-positioned resources as well as an estimated savings of nearly $20 million for mobilization.
The City of Houston has secured a third disposal site, Barry Madden’s property south of the river, that has already received USACE permits for another 500,000 cubic yards of sediment disposal.
Request from Council Member Martin
Martin asks residents who support the request for additional dredging to contact their federal representatives. Martin says he remains committed to removing additional sediment in the mouth-bar and will continue to fight for additional dredging at that location.
Why We Still Have A Problem
Last weekend, boaters, canoeists and kayakers reported that water depth in the mouth bar was only 3-5 feet deep. Even though the Corps has so far refused to release its plans or survey results, that’s very close to the estimate I calculated when dividing 500,000 cubic yards by the acreage within the dredge area.
However, boaters also report the water upstream from the mouth bar is almost 40 feet deep in places.
This will herd water into an underwater box canyon.
As water hits that wall, it will also slow down, dropping more sediment out of suspension faster. That, in turn, will accelerate re-deposition and quickly fill in the area that FEMA just spent $90 million dredging. What a tragic waste of tax dollars!
Benefits of Additional Dredging
Creating a consistently wide and deep channel through the mouth bar that connects upstream areas with the Lake beyond FM1960 will reduce flood damages to properties regionally and provide for increased resilience to transportation systems, water treatment systems, public/private utilities, emergency response facilities, petrochemical industries, and other critical infrastructure, in the West Fork, San Jacinto River Watershed, plus Harris, Montgomery, and Liberty Counties.
Last year, the Corps estimated the flood protection benefits to be on the order of $200 billion.
FEMA regulations allow the agency to restore a river to a prior good condition if a risk to health and human safety exists.
Given that petrochemical industries in the region produce a significant amount of the nation’s petroleum-based energy products, reducing flood risks to these plants and their workers who reside in flood-prone areas will provide greater resiliency and a National security benefit.
Environmental benefits include reduced risks to water treatment plants from flooded sand mines and chemical spills which are threats to human health and safety. Non-monetary benefits include reduced risks to life, especially among residents with insufficient means.
Many readers have written to inquire about my lack of regular posting recently. No, I have not been sick. No, I have not been discouraged. And no, I have not given up the fight. But I have been distracted … in a most pleasant way. By the marriage of my son Kevin to Dr. Aylin (pronounced Eileen) Ulku, a professor of medicine at the University of California. You could say that I’ve been grappling with a different kind of flood, a flood of emotions. But these are all positive.
Dr. Aylin Ulku and Kevin Rehak exchange wedding vows and rings near Santa Cruz, CA.LTC Julian Benton, USAF, officiated.
Two Met in Kigali
In 2010, Aylin began work in Kigali, Rwanda, as an Assistant Clinical Professor for the Yale School of Medicine. Her mission: to assist in medical-education capacity-building within the National University of Rwanda (NUR) School of Medicine. Her work included teaching and supervising Rwandese medical students and residents in Internal Medicine and Pediatrics. She also revised undergraduate and graduate curricula and training programs. Her interests focus on global health education and training in non-communicable diseases in limited-resource settings. And did I mention? In addition to her MD, this brilliant humanitarian also has a PhD.
Aylin and my son met at an embassy party in Kigali. Kevin was there on a Peace Corps assignment. As he tells the story, he saw her from across the room and made a beeline toward her. They started dating in Rwanda, got engaged in San Francisco, and over the Labor Day weekend, they got married. It was a story-book wedding. On a mountain top near Santa Cruz, among sequoias, flowers, families and friends.
Residing in San Francisco
The two plan to continue living in San Francisco for now. Dr. Ulku’s research and teaching interests take her back to Africa several times each year. Kevin works as a supply chain management consultant in Silicon Valley.
When they’re not traveling for business, Kevin and Aylin travel for pleasure. The two are avid outdoors people. They have hiked the remote reaches of six continents. I could not be happier for these two wonderful people. May they always walk in beauty.
Now…back to the news. And there’s plenty of it.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2019
742 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/IMG_0306-e1568149385246.jpeg?fit=1500%2C952&ssl=19521500adminadmin2019-09-10 15:50:162019-09-10 16:11:00A Flood of Emotions
