East Fork Rose 11 Feet Today; Almost Out of Banks at FM1485

The East Fork of the San Jacinto at FM1485 received almost 10 inches of rain today, including almost two inches in one hour late this afternoon.

Just upstream at 2090, the East Fork also received more than 10 inches in heavy bursts throughout the day.

As a consequence, the East Fork has risen 11 feet in the last 20 hours. It currently stands at about 57 feet. Flooding becomes likely at 60 feet.

Therefore, the river has three more feet to rise before coming out of its banks at FM1485.

Stay alert. For the most up to date information, consult:

  • HarrisCountyFWS.org
  • Click on the gage nearest you.
  • Select “For more information”
  • Click on the Rainfall and/or Stream Elevation tabs to see graphic representations like those above.

Better yet, establish an account and sign up for automated alerts. You can customize your preferences or accept defaults for as many gages as you wish.

The ground is already saturated. So any additional rainfall will result in rapid runoff So good luck to East Fork residents tonight and tomorrow.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says “Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches will be possible in this area with totals west of I-45 generally less than 2 inches.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2019 at 6pm

750 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Center of Imelda Drifting Over SW Montgomery County as of Late Morning Wednesday

The National Weather Service has issued an urban and small stream advisory for the northern Lake Houston Area. It extends across north Houston up to Conroe. Expect street flooding.

Source: National Weather Service

According to Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner, the center of Imelda is drifting over southwest Montgomery County as of late Wednesday morning. Lindner adds that “lull” in heavy rainfall over Harris County should last until early afternoon. Expect rain to pick up significantly between mid afternoon and evening.

Flash Flooding Possible

The National Weather Service cautions that heavy downpours with rainfall rates between 2-4 inches per hour are possible. That’s enough to cause street flooding. 

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
  Southwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
  West central Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
  Northeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1245 PM CDT.

* At 949 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
  urban and small stream flooding in the advisory area. 3 to 6
  inches of rain have already fallen across portions of these areas
  and additional rain is expected during the next several hours.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Conroe, Humble, Jersey Village, Willis, Aldine, Northside /
  Northline, Kingwood, The Woodlands, Greater Greenspoint, Spring,
  Spring Branch North, northeastern Addicks Park Ten, Oak Ridge
  North, Panorama Village, Shenandoah, Splendora, Patton Village,
  Roman Forest, Woodbranch and Cut And Shoot.

Incredible Rainfall Rates South of Houston

Incredible rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour have resulted in a 24 hour storm total of 21.34 inches at Sargent with 7.56 inches falling in 1.5 hours and 10.72 inches in 3 hours this morning. This shows the potential of this air mass to produce excessive rainfall in a short period of time.

Heaviest Rainfall Expected Along US59

As the air mass heats late this morning, expect renewed development along/near the US 59 corridor.

Where exactly this band develops and how defined it becomes remains in question. But higher intensity rainfall rates will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours.

Rainfall Total Forecast

Expect an additional 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches this afternoon through Thursday morning.  Remember, 2 inches per hour can cause street flooding. Don’t drive through high water. Park your car on high ground.

To check the rainfall rate per hour, go to http://harriscountyfws.org, click on the a gage near you, then click the “for more information” link that pops up.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/19 at 10:45 am

750 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Wednesday AM River, Lake Report: No Problems Yet

Here’s a river/lake report as of 7a.m. Wednesday, 9/18/19. During the early morning hours, TS Imelda was downgraded to a depression. The center of the storm moved north and is now over northern Harris County. Parts of the Lake Houston area received 4-5 inches of rain. Regardless, thanks to aggressive action by the City and luck in rainfall patterns, at this hour, no flood threat exists in our area from rivers or Lake Houston.

Little Rain So Far Upstream on West Fork

Rainfall around Lake Conroe overnight. Source: Harris County Flood Warning System

Luckily, very little rain fell upstream from us on the West Fork. In fact, the Lake Conroe area generally received less than a quarter inch of rain. Lake Conroe is releasing NO water at this hour. It’s level has not changed appreciably over night. It remains about 2.5 feet below normal.

West Fork and Lake Houston Still Below Normal Levels

Rainfall in Lake Houston Area. Source: Harris County Flood Warning System
West Fork status at Lake Houston Parkway. Source: Harris County Flood Warning System.

The West Lake Houston Parkway gage at the West Fork received a little more than four inches of rain in the last 24 hours. But the river is still within 6 feet of overflowing and the Lake itself is still about a foot below normal.

Source: USGS as reported by Coastal Water Authority.

Openning Gates Reduced Flood Threat

Source: Coastal Water Authority

Looking at the right of the graph above, you can see how yesterday’s decision to open the gates on Lake Houston lowered the level by an addition 1.3 feet. This helped offset the heavy rains that fell directly over the lake an in nearby tributaries.

The heaviest rain in the Lake Houston area appears to be 5.72 inches in Liberty County on the East Fork northeast of Lake Houston Park.

Overbank Flooding Limited to Southern Harris County So Far

The only flooding in Harris County from the heavy rains yesterday occurred in the extreme southern part of the county where the heaviest rains fell.

Flash Flood Watch Remains In Effect

Remain alert throughout today. A flash flood watch remains in effect for our area through tomorrow morning and will likely be extended.

Forecasters expect the heaviest rains with daytime heating. They predict that a band of rain will set up east of US59 this afternoon.

Conditions could change rapidly, especially now that the ground is fully saturated.

In the meantime, remain alert for street flooding and avoid travel if possible.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2019 at 7 a.m.

750 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Level Reports in Advance of TS Imelda; Where to Find Up-to-Minute Info During Storm

Overnight, the offshore low that had only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical system, turned into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm called Imelda.

Houston Under Flash Flood Watch

As of 6 p.m. Monday evening, Harris County and the entire Houston area is under a flash flood watch.

For the latest updates visit the National Weather Service site.

Projected Path Of Storm Between US59 and I-45

If the storm stays on its present trajectory, the center should go right through the Lake Houston area. Note in the graphic above that the heaviest rainfall will be east of US59 along a line between Houston and Livingston.

Rainfall Totals

The NWS predicts the three-day total rainfall for the storm could reach 6-8 inches, though professionals caution that much higher amounts are possible. For instance, if you live east of US59 and the track of Imelda, according to Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner, you might get up to 10-15 inches.

As the storm approaches from the southwest, the Lake Houston area will be on the dirty side, meaning we will get higher rainfall amounts than further west.

Lake Levels Down To Create Extra Buffer Against Flooding

In advance of the storm, the Coastal Water Authority is lowering Lake Houston. The normal elevation is at 42.5 feet. As of this writing, the Coastal Water Authority shows the pool level at 41.19 feet, about 1.25 feet below normal for a planned maintenance project.

However, effective immediately, the Lake level will be lowered to 40.9 feet, 2.6 feet below normal. This will create an extra buffer against flooding.

Houston City Council Member Dave Martin says, “All gates will remain open until the inclement weather threat leaves the area. After the weather threat has passed, gates will stay open until a level of 41.5 feet is reached allowing for the planned maintenance project to resume.”

The SJRA has lowered the level of Lake Conroe according to its seasonal plan. Lake Conroe is currently at 198.71 feet, a little more than 2 feet below normal. The plan called for 199; evaporation took the rest. Currently the SJRA is releasing 0 cubic feet per second. Check the SJRA website for up to the minute reports.

Dry Ground Will Absorb Initial Rainfall, Then Look Out

Because of extremely dry weather during July, August and early September, the ground should absorb much of the initial rain. However, because the rate could exceed 1-2 inches per hour at times, runoff will rapidly increase.

The first threat from this storm will be street flooding. Secondarily, it will be bayou and river flooding. You can track the latter at Harris County Flood Warning System and make sure you check out their near-real-time inundation feature.

Protective Actions

Be Prepared.  People should bring their pets inside and delay travel or outdoor activities during periods of heavy rainfall.  If travel is unavoidable, reduce your speed to avoid hydroplaning.  

If a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area, DO NOT travel.  

Property owners should ensure that street drains and ditches are clear of debris, so storm water can flow without obstructions. Blockages of drains, ditches, and culverts are the most frequent cause of flooding in neighborhoods.

Clear Street Drains

Secure items that might float away in heavy rain and become lodged in drains or culverts. Avoid street parking to protect your vehicle and allow clear passage for response vehicles.

Turn Around, Don’t Drown®

Do not drive through flooded areas.  If you see water covering the road, do not attempt to cross it.  Only a few inches of water can float a vehicle . If you find yourself in a dangerous situation where your vehicle is taking on water, get out of the vehicle, get to a higher position, and call 911.   

Monitor Official Sources for Current Information 

Harris County Flood Warning System (harriscountyfws.org), Houston TranStar (houstontranstar.org), and the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Forecast Office (weather.gov/hgx).

Monitor Stream, Bayou, and Creek Conditions

Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing creeks and bayous to rise and possibly exceed their banks.  Stay informed of current conditions and avoid traveling near creeks and bayous.

Avoid Traveling during Periods of Heavy Rain

Rain can reduce visibility and prevent you from seeing the road ahead, which could lead to accidents.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 6 pm Tuesday, 9/17/19

749 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Potential for Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding Increasing This Week

Low-pressure System Will Meander Near Coast

Lake Charles and Houston radars show numerous clusters and bands of heavy rainfall across Gulf waters associated with deep tropical moisture. These bands will soon begin to move onshore.

Lake Charles radar shows numerous bands of heavy showers just offshore headed this way.
Houston Hobby radar shows similar banding.

Cumulative Rainfall Potential Through Friday

Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Wednesday this Week.

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, models have come into agreement. They predict a surface-low pressure system may form just offshore on Tuesday and drift inland over southeast Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system only a 10% chance of tropical formation…

…BUT regardless heavy rainfall should result.

Ingredients appear to be coming together late Tuesday through Thursday for a heavy rainfall event over the region. 

Endless Supply of Tropical Moisture

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, “An endless supply of moisture will pump into the region. Formation of slow-moving, training rain bands appears likely over portions of the area.”

This weather system could produce excessive rainfall, enough to saturate dry ground in a short period of time. Rains today and Tuesday especially south of I-10 will saturate dry ground. Conditions by Wednesday should support much more run-off, over a wider area.

10-15 Inches Possible

Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches will be likely over much of the area with isolated totals of 10-15 inches possible. 

Hourly rainfall rates of 3-4 inches will be possible under any training bands and any slow-moving clusters resulting in rapid-onset urban flash flooding. The threat for creek, bayou, and river flooding will increase by mid-week as grounds become increasingly saturated and run-off increases.

Flash flooding will be possible.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2019 as of 9 a.m.

748 Days since Hurricane Harvey

UH Center for Public History Sponsors Talk by Tim Garfield on Influence of Mouth Bar on Harvey Flooding

Mark your calendar. On Wednesday, October 2, 2019, from 4:30 to 6:00pm, Tim Garfield, a Kingwood resident and one of the world’s leading geoscientists, will deliver a talk at the University of Houston. The subject: how the mouth bar of the San Jacinto West Fork contributed to flooding during Hurricane Harvey and what its continued presence means for the future of residents in the Lake Houston Area.

About the Speaker and Sponsor

Garfield has been one of the leaders in the grassroots movement to mitigate the influence of the mouth bar on flooding. The University of Houston History Department and Houston History Magazine have also led the movement to document the impacts of flooding on the development of Houston.

Event Details

The flier below gives more specifics about the talk.

For a printable PDF of this flier, click here.

Driving and Parking Instruction for the University of Houston Honors Commons

The event is free and open to the public. It will be held at the University of Houston Honors Commons. To learn how to get there, where to park and how to navigate from parking to the event, see below.

For a printable PDF of the driving and parking instructions, click here.

Brought to You By…

Debbie Z. Harwell, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of History at UH and the Editor of Houston History Magazine, arranged this event. Kudos to Garfield and Harwell for documenting the impacts of Harvey and geomorphic processes on the history of Houston.

This is one of those rare times when human history and geologic history intersect. Don’t miss it!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2019

746 Days since Hurricane Harvey


Mark Your Calendar: Houston Stronger to Host Public Forum About Flood Risk Reduction Strategies and Action

On Wednesday, October 2nd, Houston Stronger will host a free public forum about Flood Risk Reduction Strategies and Action.

City, county and state leaders will discuss their priorities for the distribution of FEMA money. Will they match your priorities? The Lake Houston Area should turn out in force for this meeting.

Houston Stronger Speakers

Chief speakers include:

  • Stephen Costello, City of Houston Chief Resiliency Officer
  • W. Nim Kidd, Chief, Texas Division of Emergency Management
  • Russ Poppe, Executive Director, Harris County Flood Control District
  • Steve Costello, Chief Recovery Officer, City of Houston ‘
  • Sheri Willey, Deputy Chief, Project Management Branch, USACE SWG
  • Player yet-to-be-named from the Texas General Land Office

Time, Date, Place

Houston Stronger will host the meeting from 10-11-30 at:

  • HCC West Houston Institute
  • 2811 Hayes Road
  • Houston, TX

Tickets are free but only 300 seats exis,t so sign up quickly. Only registered people may attend.

One Meeting that Matters

Meeting details are sketchy at this time. But organizers tell me the forum will focus on how to spend FEMA money coming to Texas.

A large part of that decision depends on advocacy. So a large turnout from the Lake Houston Area will raise our visibility and help our cause. This meeting matters! Let’s fill the room and make our voices heard. If you click on the link to Houston Stronger priorities, you will immediately see the importance of a strong turnout.

I will post more details on this Houston Stronger meeting as they become available.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2019

745 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Sh%t Southern Women Say in a Hurricane

Sometimes humor is the best way to deal with a difficult situation. This has to be the funniest video I have seen in a long time! Written and directed by Julia Fowler. From the Southern Women Channel.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2019 with thanks to Jacque Havelka for the link

745 days since Hurricane Harvey

Excavation of Lower Portion of Ben’s Branch Kicking into High Gear

In June and July, Harris County Flood Control cleared the upper portion of Ben’s Branch near Northpark Drive and Woodland Hills. Now, excavation of the lower portion of Ben’s Branch between Kingwood Drive and the YMCA on West Lake Houston Parkway has begun.

Looking south from the Kingwood Drive Bridge over Ben’s Branch. Fuddrucker’s and Remax are out of frame to the left.

One of the Largest Drainage Features in Kingwood

Ben’s Branch is one of the major drainage features in Kingwood. The purpose of the project: to restore conveyance. The stream/ditch cuts diagonally through the center of the community from the new St. Martha Church to King’s Harbor. Thousands of homes and businesses depend on Ben’s Branch to evacuate storm water efficiently.

Prior to Harvey, the ditch had not been cleared out in decades. It had become seriously clogged from erosion. Kingwood badly needs this maintenance.

Damages Near Ben’s Branch

During Harvey, Ben’s Branch contributed to the flooding of:

  • Every business in Kingwood’s busy Town Center area
  • Every home in the Enclave
  • Hundreds of homes in Kings Forest, Bear Branch, Foster’s Mill and Kingwood Greens
  • Kingwood Country Club’s Forest Course and Golf Advantage School
  • The Kingwood YMCA and Library
  • Kingwood High School
  • Hundreds of apartments

Twelve seniors in Kingwood Village Estates also died as a result of injuries sustained during evacuation or the stress of dealing with condos that the storm destroyed.

Scope and Timing of Project

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) started planning the clean-out project last spring, bid it earlier in the summer, and began construction late last month.

Construction will last through the end of the year. HCFCD will remove approximately 77,000 cubic yards of sediment. Crews began work at Kingwood Drive and are heading downstream. They have not yet reached the point where Ben’s Branch turns east, cuts under West Lake Houston Parkway, and then curves around the Y to head south again.

The project extends from Kingwood Drive downstream to 1,800 linear feet downstream of West Lake Houston Parkway.

HCFCD project started at the red line and is heading south.
Example of how badly Ben’s Branch has become silted. Approximately 70-80% of the conveyance was lost. The little orange dot in the upper center of the frame is a member of the HCFCD survey crew. Image taken last spring, looking west from West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge.

Traffic and Other Impacts

Construction equipment will access the work area via the established access points from Kingwood Drive, Bens View, West Lake Houston Parkway, and Denmere. The contractor will use heavy construction equipment such as dump trucks, excavators and bulldozers. Motorists are urged to be alert to truck traffic when passing near construction access points. 

In order to repair and remove sediment from Ben’s Branch, the contractor will need to remove some trees and vegetation along Bens Branch, and in areas designated for access to the channel from the public road right of way.

For more information about this or other Kingwood projects visit the Harris County Flood Control District website.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/12/2019

744 Days since Hurricane Harvey

HCFCD Wraps Up Taylor Gully Project Between Rustling Elms and County Line

This week, Harris County Flood Control is completing work on a large section of Taylor Gully between Rustling Elms and the Harris/Montgomery County line. Said Beth Walters of the Flood Control District, “Serco (the contractor) is replacing an outfall pipe Tuesday; this work should be complete in a few days. This is the last pipe to be replaced, and then all major work from Rustling Elms upstream to the county line will be completed.” The work began about two months ago.

Taylor Gully Images from Jeff Miller

Flood Control contractors inspect the old, rusted outfall pipe near Rustling Elms last week. Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller.
Reverse angle shows existing pipe before replacement. Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller.
Contractors were clearing turtles and fish from the old manhole.
Last weekend, new, 6-foot replacement pipe was standing by, ready for Taylor Gully installation. Photo taken by Jeff Miller.
New pipe fully installed. Photo taken 9/11 by Jeff Miller.
Excess dirt has been removed, ditch excavated, backslope interceptor swales restored, banks smoothed, and new backslope drains installed. Ready for the severe weather test. Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller.

Small Amount of Clean Up Work Remains

Miller reported addition excavation work happening this morning near Rustling Elms on Taylor Gully.
Photo courtesy of Jeff Miller of additional cleanup work between Rustling Elms and Bassingham.

Once again, a shout-out to Barbara Hilburn who raised the alarm about clogged ditches and beat that drum for more than a year until projects like this began.

Posted by Bob Rehak with Images and Reporting from Jeff Miller

743 Days after Hurricane Harvey