Quiz: In Southeast Texas, Do Floods Happen More Often in First or Second Half of Year?

Pop quiz: In the last 100 years in Harris County, Texas, were you more likely to get flooded in the first or second half of the year? And the answer is…second half. But surprisingly, it’s a close tie. Looking at the data, also revealed that a major flood happened every 2.5 years on average.

Harris County Flood History
Major flood events in the last 100 years. Compiled by Harris County Flood Control. Note: Last update happened before Harvey.

How Numbers Were Compiled

Harris County Flood Control District keeps a list of major floods. It actually goes back further than 1920. However, the pre-1920 records don’t reliably record the month of the flood, so I limited the sample to 100 years for the purpose of this quiz.

HCFCD shows 38 events through 2016. For my count, I added Hurricane Harvey (2017) and Tropical Storm Imelda (2019). Both happened since the last HCFCD chart update. And both produced major flooding in Harris County. That brought the total to 40 events.

22 of 40 Events Happened in Second Half of Year

Of the 40 major floods in 100 years, 18 happened from January through June; 22 from July through December.

That means you’re almost as likely to get flooded in the spring as you are by a tropical event in the summer or fall.

23 of 40 Events Happened During Hurricane Season

However, if you phrased the question as, “How many major floods happened during hurricane season?” you would get a slightly different answer. Seventeen of the 40 did not and 23 did.

That’s because:

  • June falls in BOTH spring and hurricane season. Note that two floods, Audrey in 1957 and Allison in 2001, both occurred in June.
  • In 1935 a major flood occurred during December, which is outside of hurricane season.

Major Flood Intervals Average 2.5 Years

The other major, mind-bending, slap-you-in-the-head statistic that comes out of this quiz concerns frequency. Forty events in 100 years represents a 40% chance of a major flood happening in any given year.

The average interval of major flood events: 2.5 years. The shortest interval: one month in 1929, 1989 and 2016. The longest interval: eight years between 1961 and 1969.

If those statistics don’t make you a believer in flood insurance, I don’t know what will. It should also make you a believer in flood control and drainage districts if you live in a southeast Texas county, such as Montgomery, that doesn’t have one.

For those whose screen is too small to read the data above, here’s a printable PDF.

If you don’t have a printer at home, here’s the breakdown:

First-Half-of-Year Floods: 1929 (April and May), 1930, 1955, 1957, 1960, 1969, 1972, 1973, 1983, 1989, 1992, 2001, 2006, 2009, 2015, 2016 (2 in April and May)

Second-Half-of-Year Floods: 1932, 1935, 1940, 1943 (July and October), 1945, 1959, 1961, 1979, 1983 (August and September), 1984, 1994, 1998 (September, October, November), 2008, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2019

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/17/2020 based on HCFCD data

962 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lack of Senate Action Holds Up Resolution of So-Called Duplication-of-Benefits Issues

A bi-partisan amendment sponsored by Dan Crenshaw and approved in the U.S. House of Representatives would provide $45 million to resolve “duplication-of-benefits” issues that continue to dog more than 1000 Texans stemming from Hurricane Harvey. However, the bill has not yet been taken up in the Senate. Pleas for help to Senators Cruz and Cornyn by Hurricane Harvey flood victims have not resulted in action.

At issue: whether those who are eligible for grants, but who received SBA loans, should be allowed to use grants to pay back loans. The government permitted this after Katrina and wants to permit it for Harvey victims, but 961 days after the storm, the Senate has still not voted on Crenshaw’s amendment that would enable it.

Duplication of Benefits or Duplication of Disasters?

Many Harvey victims who would qualify for grants took out loans to restore their homes more quickly. The government counts both grants and loans equally in terms of aid. But the loans must be repaid. That places a large burden on low-income families, retired people, and those who have become unemployed due to the corona virus.

Home of retired/unemployed Harvey victim who would qualify for grant but is being denied it because he took out an SBA loan to restore his home more quickly.

Imagine you were retired, then flooded during Harvey. You’re living on social security and savings. For the sake of illustration, let’s say you had damage totaling $100,000. You got a grant of $20,000 and took out an SBA loan for $80,000 to repair your home. Then you came out of retirement and found another job to pay back the loan. But your employer laid you off when the virus hit.

When you took out the loan, you were told that it would not count against you if additional grants became available later. But it did. When you applied for the second grant to help pay back the loan, they told you it would count as a “duplication of benefits.”

Trying to Untangle Web of Bureaucracy

As you investigate the problem, you discover that Congress did not intend the SBA loans to count as a duplication of benefits. The President agreed. And HUD issued rulings saying they weren’t. But the General Land Office and City of Houston (the entities actually distributing the grants) still consider you ineligible.

Why? They don’t have enough money to cover people in your category. Why? Because the Senate has not acted on Crenshaw’s amendment. When you write your Senators, you get polite form letters back, but no action.

Will this problem be fixed? Will the Senate ever act? Probably not. The government is so consumed with the corona crisis that it has forgotten about the Harvey crisis. Meanwhile, the victims of BOTH are forgotten.

How You Can Help Forgotten Ones

If you think this is unfair, please email your Senators. They respond to public pressure.

Please take a few minutes.

  • Ask your senators to sponsor “the Crenshaw-Fletcher Amendment for HUD appropriations to supplement Harvey Housing.”
  • Emphasize that loans are being classified as “benefits” to deny people who would otherwise be eligible to receive grants.
  • Loans weren’t considered a duplication of benefits after Katrina, but they are for Harvey.
  • Congress, the President and HUD don’t want loans to be a duplication of benefits.
  • Constituents are being doubly hurt by a “duplication of disasters”: Inaction over the duplication of benefits issue and unemployment due to the virus.

Contact:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/16/2020

961 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Kingwood Drive and Loop 494 Intersection Closed This Weekend

City of Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin announced this afternoon that the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) will close the intersection of Kingwood Drive and Texas Loop 494 this weekend. The closure starts Friday evening, April 17 and, weather permitting, will last through early Monday morning, April 20.

Purpose of Closure

This is a bit off topic for a flood blog, but Kingwood Drive affects half my readers and 494 affects many more. Here’s what’s happening.

TxDOT will raise the intersection of Kingwood Drive and 494 with two feet of asphalt. The purpose: to remove the dip by the UP railroad tracks.

Weather permitting, construction should start at 9:00 p.m. on Friday. Crews will work continuously until 5:00 a.m. Monday.

Please watch for flagmen and orange traffic cones indicating detours. Detours at Crescent Springs, Butterfly Lane, Royal Forest and Northpark Drive are shown below.

For more information, contact TxDOT at (936) 538-3300.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/15/2020

960 Days since Hurricane Harvey

SJRA Starts Seasonal Release to Lower Lake Conroe

After the Easter weekend, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) started its seasonal-release plan. The river authority is currently releasing at a rate of 529 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Conroe. At that rate, the lake should reach its target level of 200 feet above sea level by the end of April, according to Jace Houston, general manager of the SJRA.

Seasonal Release from Lake Conroe, 529 cfs from one tainter gate open six inches.
SJRA Seasonal Release on 4/15/2020. One tainter gate open six inches releases a slow, steady stream of 529 cfs. Image courtesy of SJRA.

The slow rate of release avoids flooding downstream property and the lower lake level provides additional capacity in the lake. That additional capacity provides a buffer against flooding for downstream residents.

About Seasonal Lake Lowering Policy

Houston said the River Authority will hold the lake at 200 feet through the end of May, then allow it to reach its normal level for most of the summer.

Lake Conroe actually reached 200.75 feet before SJRA began its seasonal lowering this week. A reduction of .14 feet equates to about one and two-thirds inches of lowering so far.

At 200.75 feet, Lake Conroe was actually above its highest average monthly level for the year, which is 200.44 feet in May. The normal level for April is 200.32 feet.

Lake Conroe seasonal levels by month. From SJRA board presentation by Chuck Gilman in January.

Earlier this year, a bitter fight broke out between upstream and downstream property owners over the seasonal lake lowering policy. The SJRA board decided to extend the lake lowering plan, but modify it. In the fall, they will let the City of Houston, which owns two-thirds of the water in the lake, decide whether to take the lake down below 199.5 feet.

The extra lowering in the fall helps protect against hurricanes and tropical storms, such as Harvey and Imelda. The SJRA begins slowly lowering the lake in August for the peak of hurricane season in September and then letting it resume its normal level again in October. For the exact details of the policy adopted by the board in its February meeting, click here.

Lake Houston Level Declining

Despite the start of the seasonal release and last week’s rains, the level of Lake Houston has declined this week. And rivers are far from flooding.

Normal level for Lake Houston is 42.5 feet, but City is still lowering lake for spillway maintenance.

Uncertain Weather for This Weekend

Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, predicts that storms this weekend could bring several inches of rain. “With the Gulf of Mexico water temperatures running several degrees above average for this time of year, winds blowing off the Gulf will need little time to supply a rich moisture-laden air mass.” 

The NWS predicts a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms for this weekend as a front passes. However, Lindner notes, models diverge widely in their predictions. The Global Forecast System (GFS model) predicts that most rain will happen over the Gulf with little impact to land.

However, the European Medium Range Forecast Model (ECMWF) predicts a very wet weekend with several rounds of storms and several inches of rainfall for much of southeast Texas.

Which Model is Better?

ECMWF is considered one of the premiere global forecasting models for the mid-latitudes. Statistically, it has been more accurate than the GFS model.

NOAA has tripled spending on supercomputing capacity to make GFS the best model in the world again.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/15/2020

960 Days after Hurricane Harvey

Ron Holley Describes His Vision for Forest Cove Golf-Course Development

In April 2019, Ron Holley, a major Kingwood developer, bought the Kingwood Cove Golf Course. Neighbors immediately started asking questions about how his plans could affect potential flooding. Forty-one Forest Cove residents flooded during Imelda last year. On 4/12 this year, Holley shared his vision for the property in a KPRC radio interview.

Description of Development

The developer says he purchased 110 acres. He will reserve 20 acres of that (18%) for detention. The remaining 90 acres, he says, are all above the 500-year floodplain. The lowest part of the property sits at 50 feet above sea level. That’s 7.5 feet above the average level of Lake Houston. However, he says the highest properties, those closest to Kingwood Drive, are at 90 feet.

Possible names for the development include Kingwood Heights and Holley Heights, to help offset the fear of flooding and communicate the location above the current 500 year floodplain.

Holley says he conducted environmental, wetland, and tree surveys on the property in the last year. He wants to preserve as many trees as possible. Lot sizes will range from half- to 1+ acres.

USGS Shows No Wetlands Issues for Property

USGS shows no wetlands on the Kingwood Cove Golf Course, though it does show two ponds.

FEMA Shows Narrow 500-year Flood Zone

In the map below, the cross-hatched area represents the floodway. The aqua colored area represents the 100-year floodplain and the brown area the 500-year floodplain. The narrowness of the 500-year band indicates a steep slope. In fact, the land rises sharply from a low river terrace to a higher terrace in that transition zone.

FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer View shows only the extreme lower portion of the course in flood hazard areas.

Timing of Development

Holley says people could start building homes on the old course early next year. However, he did not say whether the property was permitted yet.

Other local subdivisions developed by Holley include: Kings Harbor, Deer Ridge Estates, Kings Lake Estates, and Summer Lake Ranch. Holley has developed land in the Kingwood area since 1992.

Is Drainage Sufficient?

Mr. Holley did say that 41 Forest Cove homeowners flooded during Imelda last year. Based on their concerns, he said that he is increasing drainage. He declined to answer other questions until he gets “further along in the engineering.”

Many neighbors have expressed concerns about the loss of pervious cover to streets, driveways, rooftops, etc. If the land is going to be developed, low density makes the most sense. And one or two families per acre certainly is better than four to eight. We have seen many such higher-density developments upstream in Montgomery County. Take Northpark Woods, for instance. Many Montgomery County developments do not even require detention ponds.

This project resides both within the City of Houston and Harris County. I will continue to watch it as the engineering evolves.

Detention in Floodways Less Effective

About 4 acres of the 20 acres on the lower terrace sits in the floodway. One flood expert told me, “Generally, detention basins in the floodway aren’t as effective (compared to those in a floodplain) because they get full of water before they can be of much use during a flood event. A detention basin works where it can fill up and store water during a major flood event, basically an extension of the natural floodplain.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/14/2020

959 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New UP Railroad Bridge Over West Fork Complete

Union Pacific (UP) has completed the new railroad bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork near US59. During Harvey, the narrow supports of the old bridge caught many trees swept downstream by the flood. The new bridge, two years in the making, has wider supports designed to let trees pass through in the next flood.

History of Project

Shortly after Harvey, UP repaired the old bridge to facilitate northbound rail traffic out of Houston. Then the company started building a new bridge – between and over the supports of the old one. The effort was a marvel of American ingenuity. The new bridge also contains U-shaped spans designed to support the weight of heavy trains over the wider supports.

This afternoon, crews were dismantling the last of the massive cranes used to erect the new bridge.

One Less Contributor to Flooding to Worry About

This is yet another piece of the puzzle designed to reduce flooding in the Humble-Kingwood area. No one can say for sure, how much the logjam created by the old bridge contributed to flooding during Harvey. One thing is certain, however. That’s one less thing to worry about in the future.

Trees caught in the supports of the old pedestrian bridge over 59 and the railroad bridge during Harvey.
Harvey knocked out part of the bridge. Photo taken in March 2018. Note how close the supports are on the far side of the bridge.

One Month Ago

Compare the width of these supports. Photo taken 2 years later in March 2020.

Photos of Completed Bridge

Here’s how the sleek new bridge looked from downstream today. Photo looking west toward 59 behind the railroad bridge.
Another shot from the opposite direction taken today. Looking east from under the US59 bridge. Hopefully no trees will get caught between these supports.

Dismantling Construction Crane

All around the job site on the south shore of the West Fork at 59, crews today could be seen demobilizing. It took one large crane to dismantle another.

Dismantling the large crane used in construction (see three photos above). Shot taken today, 4/13/2020.

This will help reduce flooding. It should also make boating far more pleasurable through this area.

Congratulations and thanks to the hard-working people of the Union Pacific railroad.

Next Up: Edgewater Park

Bridge construction had delayed development of Harris County Precinct 4’s new Edgewater Park immediately to the west. Let’s hope that can now get underway soon.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/13/2020

958 Days after Hurricane Harvey

River Grove Dredging Done, Only Cleanup Left

Ever since Harvey filled up the lagoon next to the River Grove boardwalk, Kingwood residents have clamored to restore the area. This week they got their wish. Kayden Industries has removed its two dredges and the giant “shaker” that separated sand from water. This morning, all that remained of the operation was a front-end loader, a giant pile of sand, and dump trucks rapidly carrying it away. They should be done with the operation this week.

Damage Due to Harvey

Here’s the story in pictures starting with Harvey.

The lagoon next to the popular boardwalk at Kingwood’s River Grove Park has totally filled in with sand deposited by Hurricane Harvey.
Harvey also left a 10-foot high sandbar that blocked the drainage ditch that runs through River Grove.

Army Corps Breaks Through Blockage

Before the Kingwood Service Association could do anything, the Army Corps and Great Lakes Dredge and Dock had to break through that sand bar, and open up the park to the river again.

KSA Excavates Park and Plans Dredging

It took the next year for KSA to:

  • Remove up to five feet of sand covering the parking lot and areas near the boardwalk
  • Restore soccer fields also covered in sand
  • Repave access roads and parking lots undermined by churning floodwaters
  • Inspect the boardwalk to ensure it was structurally sound.
  • Draw up a dredging plan for the lagoon with an engineer.
  • Identify a suitable place to put the spoils.
  • Bid the job.
  • Approve the plan and expenditure.
Note height of sand in River Grove parking lot relative to parking sign in background.

It was a monumental effort. Dee Price, KSA President and steward of River Grove Park, and Bruce Casto, KSA’s maintenance man, deserve kudos for spearheading the effort and saving this park.

Step One for Dredging: Remove Vegetation

KSA approved River Grove dredging in November of 2019 but left the park open for the holidays. Mobilization began in January and dredging finally began in February of 2020.

Between Harvey and the end of 2019, vegetation had grown up over the sand deposited in the lagoon.
Step one in the dredging: Remove the vegetation that had grown on the sand.
Then, Kayden Industries mobilized a mini dredge. The dredging took seven weeks.

Drying the Spoils Before Trucking

Kayden also brought in this giant machine to separate sand from water. It works like an oilfield shaker used to separate drilling cuttings from drilling mud.

Last Week, Demobilization Began

Almost two months after it started, Kayden began demobilizing. Resident Josh Alberson captured the image below with his drone.

Last week, Kayden Industries started demobilizing their equipment. Here we see one of the two dredges getting ready for removal from the water. Kayden brought in a smaller dredge when the City lowered the level of the lake suddenly. The first dredge is up on blocks behind the pile of sand. Photo courtesy of Josh Alberson.
This morning, where the shaker once stood, nothing but some sand remains.
A giant pile of sand still blocks the boat dock.
But dump trucks were lining up to receive the sand and carry it to a placement area in Humble out of the flood plain.
The finished job: a beautifully restored lagoon, complete with some marshes to attract birds.

Water along the boardwalk is 3-5 feet deep, so don’t let kids play in it. That could be dangerous.

Some Repaving Left to Do

All the heavy traffic has taken a toll on park roads. “Everyone needs to understand that the paving problems on the road between the gate and the first stop sign were there long before we started trucking dirt,” said Dee Price, KSA President. “We have patched that area numerous times in the past.” Price said KSA needs to mill and re-pave that piece of road as the group did with the soccer road. Price plans to put that project in the next fiscal-year budget. But for now, she says, “We need to patch it again until we can do the major improvement next year.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on April 14, 2020 with thanks to Josh Alberson for the drone imagery

958 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Insurance Company to Sand Miner: Defend Yourself, We’re Not Responsible for Pollution

On 4/9/2020, Everest National Insurance company filed a lawsuit in US District Court for the Southern District of Texas, against one of its policy holders, Megasand, Inc. Everest wants a declaratory judgment stating that it is not responsible for the defense of its client, nor for any settlements or judgments that may arise from underlying cases that it specified (see below).

Courthouse News Service Alert

Yesterday, a local lawyer, Steven Selbe, noticed an alert from the Courthouse News Service (CNS) and, in turn, alerted me.

CNS said, “Megasand Enterprises is a defendant in several Harris County Court lawsuits in which residents claim their homes flooded in August 2017 because Megasand and other gravel mining companies negligently dumped sediment into Spring Creek and the San Jacinto River, reducing the waterways’ capacity to absorb flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey. Plaintiff seeks a declaration it does not have to defend nor indemnify Megasand against the litigation.”

Underlying Cases

After Hurricane Harvey, hundreds of residents in the upper San Jacinto River watershed banded together in several lawsuits against sand mines. The suits allege that mines located near the river and its tributaries discharged silt and sediment without authorization. That, they claim, reduced the ability of the river and Lake Houston to handle floodwaters, which in turn contributed to the flooding of their homes and businesses. The first lawsuit alleges nuisance, negligent conduct, gross negligence, and violation of the Texas Water Code Section 26.121. It names Megasand as a defendant. Several subsequent lawsuits were consolidated with this one.

Another suit filed this February represents 437 plaintiffs and 55 defendants, also including Megasand. This suit alleges negligence and negligence per se. Negligence per se is the unexcused violation of a statute. The suit alleges, in part, that defendants owed a duty to Plaintiffs to implement procedures to reduce the discharge of sediment, but did not.

Impact if Everest is Successful

This is not good for the folks who actually want to recover money, but may put some sand mines out of business. The insurance company says that Megasand’s policy does not cover pollution. Therefore, Everest wants to stop paying for Megasand’s defense. If the judge agrees, Everest would not have to pay for any settlements, judgements, or legal fees.

Says Selbe, “The good thing if you are an insured being defended is that your defense fees and costs are usually paid by the insurance company and often the insurance company eventually pays to settle. In this case, the insurance company wants out of the box altogether. That’s bad for Megasand. It will have to pay to fight this lawsuit and if it loses, will have to pay to defend the flood cases and any judgments or settlements.”

Mouth bar of the San Jacinto West Fork. Photo taken on 9/14/2017, two weeks after Harvey. More than 4000 structures flooded behind this blockage.

Even though Harris County courts are trying the underlying lawsuits, Everest filed its suit against Megasand in federal court. The insurance company is incorporated in Delaware and the sand company in Texas.

Reading Everest’s policy agreement with Megasand may cause other insurers and insureds to review their own policies. If sand miners cannot get insurance because of their current business practices, it may force them to modify their practices to reduce risk.

Basis for Everest Claims

The Everest suit claims, in part:

  • “Our right and duty to defend end when we have used up the applicable limit of insurance…”
  • The insurance does not apply to…property damage that is “expected“ from the standpoint of the insured.
  • The insurance also does not apply to “pollution” and the “processing or treatment of waste.”

Stepen O. Venable of Walker Wilcox Matousek LLP represents Everest National Insurance Company.

It’s not clear what triggered the Everest suit at this time. Plaintiffs filed the first of the underlying suits in 2018.

Editorial Opinion

Dozens of posts on this blog have documented discharges from sand mines. I have so many aerial photographs that I have personally concluded that pollution is part of most mines’ normal business practices. If caught, mines simply pay a slap-on-the-wrist fine.

Since mines were forced to register in 2011, the average fine has been only $800.

In essence, that makes Texas a “pay-to-pollute” state for sand miners.

If Everest is successful, the “expected” part of their claim may form a precedent that transforms the mining industry in this state. Especially if the Attorney General successfully prosecutes the Triple PG mine in Porter. The Attorney General alleges serial pollution and seeks fines that could exceed a million dollars. (Note: The underlying suits in this Megasand case also name Triple PG as a co-defendant.)

Financial risk may produce changes in business practices that Austin has not been willing to legislate.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/11/2020 with thanks to Steven Selbe

956 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Perry Homes Expanding N2 Detention Pond on Woodridge Village Site; Also Building Up Low Areas

On Wednesday, Perry Homes resumed construction on the Woodridge Village Site in two areas: adjacent to the N2 detention pond and along Woodland Hills Drive. Today, we know more about the nature of the construction activity next to N2 thanks to receipt of construction plans from Montgomery County on Thursday morning. The plans were part of a Freedom of Information Act Request.

N2 Detention Pond Expanding North and East

The new plans show an expansion of the N2 pond to the north and the east. In the satellite image below, “A” represents the original N2 pond which Montgomery County built 15 years ago. “B” represents the approximate expansion area which will be about 8 to 10 feet deep.

A = Original N2 Pond. B = Expansion Area.

City of Houston approved the plans on 3/17/2020, according to this inspection report dated 3/30. Montgomery County approved them the same day according to the County Engineer’s stamp on the plans. Below, see what the same area looked like from a helicopter before construction started.

“Work” indicates where excavation started on Wednesday. Excavation in the area labeled “N2” pre-dates Perry’s ownership of the land.

See below what the N2 area area looked like on Good Friday morning, two days AFTER construction started. Compared to the photo above, contractors took out the crescent shaped row of trees on Thursday. They also started excavating the expansion area.

Looking south at N2. Note: trees are gone. Expansion area is about one-quarter to one-third excavated in two days. See pond in upper left. Photo courtesy Matt Swint.

Part of the dirt from this excavation work went to fill in former wetland areas in the foreground of the image above.

Here’s the same area looking west from a vantage point farther south over Taylor Gully. The area between the old pond and the expansion area still needs excavation. Photo courtesy Matt Swint.
Height of excavator is about equal to depth of pond. Water in pond is due to a one-inch rain late yesterday. Photo looking west courtesy of Matt Swint.
Layout of subdivision immediately north and south of triangular-shaped N2.

Also Filling Low Area Along Woodland Hills

“A” represents N2 and the expansion area. “B” is the area along Woodland Hills where other contractors used part of the excavated dirt to fill in boggy areas.
This shows new fill in Area B from photo above.

Two reports (Wednesday and yesterday) from other sources suggested that Harris County was responsible for this work. However, a call to Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle’s assistant this morning indicated the County is NOT involved in this construction activity.

New Contractors On Job

Note filled area in background adjacent to Woodland Hills Drive. Logo on truck and other equipment parked there today reads “D&J Construction.”
Logo on equipment parked today at the northern Webb Street entrance indicates that Allgood Construction is working on the excavation, one of their specialties.

Plans show that detention pond N1 will eventually go where these trucks are now parked.

I counted six pieces of equipment on the southern section of Woodridge and at least 12 on the northern section, including those above. By my count, that’s a record. I’ve never seen so much earth-moving equipment on this site at one time.

Listing Sign Still Up

A sign at the Woodland Hills entrance today indicated that the Perry property is still listed for sale.

Sign adjacent to Woodland Hills entrance to Perry property indicates that Land Advisors is acting as property broker. Photographed Friday, 4/10/2020.

Due to the Easter weekend, with most staff off, Commissioner Cagle’s office could not reply today about the status of negotiations with Montgomery County, the City of Houston, and Perry Homes to purchase the property.

In their meeting Tuesday, Harris County commissioners discussed trying to negotiate Atlas-14 compliance and closure of the “beat the peak” loophole with Montgomery County. As a contribution from the City, they also requested land in lieu of cash to help defray costs on other Flood Control projects.

Two More Detention Ponds Planned But Not Started

The City and MoCo previously approved plans for N1 and N3, two other detention ponds on the northern section of Woodridge Village. Contractors have not yet started excavating those.

Looking south on eastern boundary toward Elm Grove, where the N3 detention pond will go. Work has not yet started here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/10/2020 with help from Matt Swint

955 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 204 after Imelda

The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Habitually Under-prepare for Disasters

Some recommended reading. I just finished rereading a book, published in 2017, called The Ostrich Paradox. It  examines why we habitually under-prepare for disasters. Why do some people, for instance: 

  • Fail to heed hurricane evacuation warnings?
  • Buy homes in flood zones without flood insurance?
  • Ride motorcycles without helmets?
  • Think they’re immune to pandemics?

Why Instinct Sometimes Overrules Reason

This book explains innate cognitive biases that often cause instinct to overrule reason. 

To illustrate these biases, the authors look at a specific subset of decisions involving risks, such as flooding and earthquakes. The probability of such disasters is extremely low but the consequences extremely high. These represent rare threats for which we have little stored knowledge.

Available on Amazon as E-Book

Six Innate Cognitive Biases

The book focuses on six cognitive biases that the authors characterize as “Our Innate Engineering.” Those biases influence our decision making in such cases.

Myopia – A tendency to focus on “here and now” costs when appraising the value of long-term protective investments. “I’m really going to have to scrimp to afford that flood insurance for a flood that may never come in my lifetime.”

Amnesia – A tendency to forget too quickly the pain of past disasters. “Harvey was two years ago. I don’t want to worry about flood mitigation now. It just reminds me of the pain.”

Optimism – A tendency to underestimate losses that could result from rare, future hazards. “Harvey was a 1000-year storm. You can’t plan for one of those.”

Inertia – A tendency to maintain the status quo or chose a default option when making difficult decisions with a high level of uncertainty. “I just can’t figure out whether these new flood maps are valid. I’m not going to buy that flood insurance now.”

Simplification – A tendency to examine a subset of factors when making complex choices involving high risk.  “I never flooded before, even during Harvey. Why buy flood insurance now?”

Herding – A tendency to base choices on what people around you are doing. “None of my neighbors have flood insurance. Why should I?”

Finding Ways to Overcome Your Biases

The theory behind the book: that by recognizing our own cognitive biases, we may be able to overcome them.

After the introduction, the authors divide the book into two main parts. 

The first devotes a chapter to each of the biases. Within each chapter they give dozens of examples and present academic studies that illustrate the difficulty people have making rational choices about these rare events.

The second devotes three chapters to strategies that can help us overcome them.

About the Authors

The authors are two professors from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania: Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther. They both specialize in risk management and decision processes. Wharton ranks as one of the nation’s leading business schools.

The writing can get dense at times. It’s not for the feint of heart or the casually interested. Primary audiences include academics, insurance executives, government leaders, policy makers, emergency preparedness planners, etc. 

Afternoon Read That Could Make You a Better Decision Maker

That said, with enough coffee, most people could wade through this in an afternoon during the virus lockdown and get a lot out of it. It’s available for $1.99 as an e-book from Amazon.

The primary value: it helps us understand HOW we think so that we can understand WHY we make the decisions we do.

As I read it, I found myself replaying some of my own past decisions and recognizing myself in several examples. I also reflected on the dozens of flood victims I have interviewed who replayed similar arguments…with regret.

The Ostrich Paradox may help make you a better decision maker. Or help you convince other people to make better decisions.

For instance, do you have a family member who thinks he or she is immune to the corona virus?

That said, I will pass along some wisdom from an ER Nurse, based on real life examples. “Now’s not the time to learn how to ride an ATV, use a chainsaw or climb a ladder.”

Stay in. Stay safe. Stay healthy.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/9/2020

954 Days since Hurricane Harvey