On Thursday, July 8, Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin will host a pubic meeting to discuss the status of adding more floodgates to the Lake Houston Dam. Preliminary engineering finished earlier this year. In March, the Coastal Water Authority board approved Black & Veatch to begin final engineering.
Need for More Gates
The Lake Houston Area Task Force identified more and higher capacity floodgates as a key element in the area’s flood-mitigation strategy. The current gates have one-fifteenth the capacity of those at the Lake Conroe Dam. That makes it difficult to shed water from Lake Houston before people flood if Lake Conroe opens its gates as it did during Harvey.
Lake Houston Dam During Harvey. The proposed crest gates would go in the far upper left of the spillway.
Floodgate Meeting Details
See the meeting details below.
Thursday, July 8, 2021 At the Kingwood Community Center (4102 Rustic Woods) Doors Open 5:30 PM Dredging Update Starts 5:45 PM Gate Update Starts at 6 PM
Chief Recovery Officer, Stephen Costello, will provide a very brief update on Lake Houston Dredging operations at 5:45 p.m. before the Spillway Improvement Project program begins.
The main presentation by Black & Veatch, the project engineers, will be followed by a short Q&A session. The meeting will then transition into breakout sessions. Breakout tables will let residents engage with project management staff and engineers in small groups to ask more detailed questions.
Project Benefits
The Lake Houston Dam Spillway project will increase the outflow capacity of the Lake Houston Dam. The project proposes installing new crest gates in the existing uncontrolled spillway. This will allow for a rapid decrease of water levels in Lake Houston in advance of storm events to prevent or reduce upstream flooding. Engineers estimate the recommended alternative could help about 35,000 residents and 5,000 structures. It’s important for people to understand that if they flooded from streams or channels far from the lake during Harvey, this may not help them.
Funding
A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Hazard Mitigation Grant Program provides $4.3 million for engineering and positions the city to receive another $42.7 million for construction.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/2021 based on info provided by Dave Martin’s Office
1407 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/LakeHoustonDamDuringHarvey.jpg?fit=1500%2C968&ssl=19681500adminadmin2021-07-05 23:31:172021-07-06 10:16:41Reminder: Floodgate Meeting at Kingwood Community Center on Thursday, July 8
On June 29, 2021, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) gave Commissioners an update on the progress of new flood maps and flood-insurance-risk ratings. The flood-map changes could become effective as early as late 2023. FEMA’s new Risk Rating 2.0 system for flood-insurance pricing will be phased in during the next few years. See details below.
MAAPnext About Half Complete
MAAPnext is Harris County’s Modeling, Assessment and Awareness Project. The purpose: to develop the next generation of flood maps and tools. It will provide a better assessment of flood risks for individual properties, and make the nature of those risks easier for property owners to understand.
One of the significant changes: the new maps will capture different types of flooding, such as street flooding. This is currently the biggest missing piece of the flood-risk rating picture, according to the MAAPnext project team.
The new maps will also come with individual property reports that estimate flood depth, water-surface elevations, annual-chance of flooding grids, and 30-year chance of flooding grids. That last will estimate your chance of flooding at least once during a 30-year mortgage. The flood map grids will also be more detailed. They will provide estimates down to the 3 ft X 3 ft level.
FEMA and Harris County expect to have:
Draft flood-risk maps and associated data available for public review by the end of this year.
Preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) for release by next summer.
Public meetings to review and explain the FIRMs to officials and residents during the second half of next year.
The earliest likely date that the new rate maps could become effective: late 2023.
Changes to flood-insurance premiums as a result of map changes could only happen after the new maps become effective.
FEMA is updating the National Flood Insurance Program‘s (NFIP) risk rating methodology through the implementation of a new pricing methodology called Risk Rating 2.0. The methodology leverages industry best practices and cutting-edge technology to enable FEMA to deliver rates that are actuarily sound, equitable, easier to understand and better reflect a property’s flood risk.
More Risk Factors Considered
Elevations, flood-hazard zones, and rating tables will no longer be the only metrics used in calculating the flood-insurance premium for a property. For example, premiums will be distributed across all policyholders based on home values and a property’s unique flood risk. FEMA will also consider flood frequency, multiple flood types—river overflow, storm surge, coastal erosion and heavy rainfall—and distance to a water source along with property characteristics such as elevation and the cost to rebuild.
More Equitable Rates
Currently, many policyholders with lower-value homes are paying more than they should and policyholders with higher-value homes are paying less than they should.
That said, FEMA expects 87% of single-family homes to see a flood-insurance-premium increase of about $120 per year. Another 4% could see an increase of about $121 to $360 per year. Finally, 9% could see a decrease of up to $1,200 per year.
New policy holders will be subject to the new rates.
Current policy holders eligible for renewal can take advantage of premium decreases.
Starting in April 2022:
Existing policy holders who expect an increase with the new method could renew under Risk Rating 2.0, but will have an option to keep their current policies if cheaper for up to two years.
All remaining policies renewing on or after April 1, 2022, will be subject to the new rating methodology.
Contact your flood insurance agent to clarify all timing, rate and discount questions.
How Does MAAPnext Factor into Risk Rating 2.0?
Harris County Flood Control District in partnership with FEMA lead the MAAPnext effort to revise flood insurance rate maps. FEMA alone leads the Risk Rating 2.0 effort to calculate new flood insurance rates. The maps will help calculate new premiums.
Posted by Bob Rehak on July 4, 2021 based on information from HCFCD and FEMA
1405 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/NFIP-Rate-Increases-Decreases.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=18811200adminadmin2021-07-04 12:50:072021-07-04 13:21:38Progress Report on New Flood Maps and Flood-Insurance-Risk Ratings
On June 29, 2021, Harris County Commissioners approved two contracts for preliminary engineering on Taylor Gully and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. The Taylor Gully project includes looking at Woodridge Village in Montgomery County to possibly expand detention-pond capacity there. See more below.
Taylor Gully Project
Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) awarded Idcus, Inc. a $180,555 preliminary engineering contract to develop up to five conceptual alternative scenarios for modifying Taylor Gully. HCFCD and Idcus will then select three scenarios for more detailed analysis. Idcus must perform the work within 300 days of the Notice to Proceed.
The alternative modeling scenarios may include:
Preferred Channel Alternative: This would look at improving the slope, width and lining of channel in conjunction with the existing detention on the Woodridge Village site. This purpose: to determine if the existing detention and proposed channel improvements suffice to mitigate flooding.
Expanded Detention: This would look at expanding the existing stormwater detention on the Woodridge Village site so that no channel improvements are necessary.
Alternative Channel/Detention: This would look at a combination of the two scenarios above. It would determine the amount of additional detention and channel improvements necessary to ensure no adverse impact all the way to Lake Houston.
Optimization Alternative: Building on the alternatives above, this effort would examine additional alternatives to produce a no-adverse-impact solution while maximizing the flood mitigation and minimizing construction costs.
Deliverables for the alternatives include:
Channel and basin layouts
Estimates of benefits for various levels of storms (100-year, etc.)
Right-of-way requirements
Cost estimates for right-of-way acquisition, engineering and construction management.
Performance metrics, i.e., estimated acreage of land inundation, number of structures in floodplain, number of structures flooded and miles of inundated roadway.
A scoring matrix to rank the alternatives.
The scope also includes, when necessary:
Hydrologic and hydraulic analysis
Surveying
Soil sampling
Environmental site assessment
Subsurface utility exploration
Landscape architecture
Finally, Idcus will hold two public engagement meetings near the beginning and end of the project and consult with community groups such as KSA.
Geographic scope includes the Woodridge Village property in MoCo plus the Taylor Gully channel in Harris County.
Kingwood Diversion Ditch
HCFCD entered into a contract with Neel-Schaffer, Inc. for $437,685 for preliminary engineering on the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Within 300 days,Neel-Schaffer must:
Evaluate existing site conditions, previous studies, other projects that could affect this one, topography, rights-of-way, utilities, and soil surveys.
Evaluate existing bridges
Conduct and H&H analysis to assess existing and proposed conditions (from 2-year to 500-year storms).
Analyze Channel Improvements including the:
Impact of TIRZ #10’s latest design to replace the Northpark Bridge
Diversion structure at the confluence of Bens Branch and the Diversion Channel
Drop structures in lieu of a concrete lined channel to minimize high velocities due to the steep grade between Walnut Lane and Deer Ridge Estates Blvd.
Develop phased construction plans based on available funding, potential impacts and benefits.
Conduct two public engagement meetings and coordinate with community groups.
HCFCD may also require Neel-Schaffer to provide addition services when necessary, such as:
Surveys
Geotechnical investigations, i.e., bridge borings
Environmental assessment
“Jurisdictional” determination. Does this channel fall under the jurisdiction of the Army Corps? If so, channel design may need to be altered.
Determination of detention pond requirements
Exploration for subsurface utilities
Obtaining permits from the Corps
Providing Landscape Architect services
Extent of Kingwood Diversion Ditch. It runs from the new St. Martha Catholic Church north of Northpark to the fire station on Kingwood Drive. Then it runs down to Deer Ridge Park where it makes a turn and enters the West Fork at River Grove Park.
For Complete Text of Contracts…
The first half of each link below contains contract details such as compensation. The second half contains the scope of work.
New amenities – including a grand entryway, boardwalks, and water features – will transform Mercer Botanic Gardens over the next decade as part of a plan to expand the gardens and make them more flood resilient.
Mercer approved its master plan, designed by Halff Associates Inc., in 2019, after buying more than 47 neighboring acres outside the special flood hazard area.
Mercer’s New Master Plan designed for Harris County Precinct 4 by Halff Associates.
Phase 1 of Transformation Already Underway
Phase 1 of the plan began March 8 and will take six months to complete. Improvements include building three greenhouses on higher ground to replace the Central Garden greenhouses. The extra elevation is expected to keep nursery plants safe from high water and provide a staging area for staff and equipment during disasters like Hurricane Harvey, which caused catastrophic damage at the botanic gardens.
“We decided we couldn’t just rebuild, because we would always be in harm’s way,” said Chris Ludwig, Mercer’s director. “The best option was to move our greenhouses to higher ground and make the facilities that couldn’t be moved more flood resilient.”
New and Improved Amenities on More Acreage
Before building the greenhouses, crews will excavate part of the property to create a detention area, using the excess soil to raise the property above Hurricane Harvey’s flood line. Plans also include demolishing the Central Garden greenhouses and using the space as an open lawn area for events and family-friendly outdoor movies.
Storey Lake and the Creekside Ramble were closed in 2016 after sustaining significant flood damage. But both have re-opened and will eventually link to other planned amenities.
Most development will occur over the next decade on a 47.44-acre plot adjacent to Mercer. Amenities include:
Three greenhouses
Water features
Trails
Observation greenhouse for exotic plants
Water wall
Amphitheater.
A boardwalk will span the pond, leading visitors past a Japanese Garden to a ziggurat – a tall earthen tower resembling the structure at McGovern Centennial Gardens, near the Houston Zoo. A twisting pathway will lead to the top of the tower so visitors can view Mercer from above. The boardwalk will also provide a shortcut to Storey Lake and a new rookery and water feature.
Baldwin Boettcher Library, which has been closed since Hurricane Harvey, will reopen as Mercer’s entrance. Additionally, Precinct 4 will restore Mercer’s Botanical Information Center, also damaged during Harvey, and open it to Baldwin Boettcher staff for library programs and classes.
Mercer’s west side, which remains mostly undeveloped, may also see a few improvements and new amenities over the years, including a Reflective Garden, Tree Village, and Maple Mall. A restroom and garden space is expected to open at the front of the westside parking area in fall 2021. Property also has been set aside on both sides of Mercer for connections to the Cypress Creek Greenway.
Inspire Your Family to Love Nature
Mercer is located in Humble at 22306 Aldine Westfield Road at Cypress Creek. That’s a little more than a mile north of FM1960. If you want to inspire your family to love nature, this is a great place to visit. And so convenient!
A USAF mission into Elsa along with radar data and surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa is now a hurricane. However, uncertainty remains about the storm’s track and intensification.
Elsa in the center of the image is skirting the northern coast of South America and about to cross over the windward islands. Note the small core near the center.
Just yesterday, the NHC showed Elsa remaining a tropical storm all the way to Florida. Now, the National Hurricane Center shows hurricane conditions are quickly spreading into the Windward Islands. Various watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the Caribbean Islands (See graphic below).
86 MPH Winds Reported
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, Elsa has taken advantage of favorable conditions in the last 24 hours. Both the Air Force and land observers reported sustained winds of 86mph this morning. That makes Elsa a hurricane. Radar indicates good banding features and a small, central core.
Elsa continues to race WNW near 30mph which is extremely fast for a hurricane.
However, the system has thus far kept its low- and upper-level centers aligned.
Track
A strong sub-tropical ridge of high pressure to the north of the hurricane, will influence the track for the next 48 hours. Then Elsa will approach a weakness in the ridge and the forecasts become more uncertain.
One model shows the storm nearly dissipating over the Dominican Republic by Sunday. However, others show Elsa turning more north. Increasingly, this appears to be the more likely outcome. However, the spread is very large from east of the Bahamas to near the northern Yucatan at days 4-5 so confidence remains lower than average on the track.
Two models show Elsa making a beeline toward the central Gulf, but most take it east.
Intensity
Conditions seem favorable for increasing development. But the fast forward motion of Elsa could become a negative factor. Models show a large spread in intensity guidance, but most keep Elsa near the intensity it is now. As it approaches the Gulf, it should be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane, but some forecasters see it growing much stronger.
NHC continues to lean toward the lower end of the guidance spectrum, but continues to indicate that Elsa could become stronger than forecasted – especially over the NW Caribbean Sea early next week.
On Tuesday, 6/29/21, Harris County commissioners voted unanimously to shift Harris County Toll Road Authority and other county funds into a trust designed to help bridge potential shortfalls in partnership funding. The amount would be $40 million per year. As a result, construction of Flood Bond Projects can continue without interruption or delay for at least the next six years. If more partnership funding materializes during that time, funds deposited in the trust could help cover non-bond projects farther into the future.
The issue of a potential shortfall in bond funding boiled into headlines back in March. Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis demanded to know where the money would come from to finish construction projects in Halls and Brays Bayou Watersheds if partnership funds did not materialize as planned. He gave Budget Management and the Flood Control District three months to develop a plan for backstop funding.
As of June 2021, HCFCD Needed to Find Additional $951 Million
When considering all flood-bond projects – not just those in Halls and Greens watersheds – the situation looks like this as of the end of June. See explanation of chart below.
As of 6/28/21, without any additional partnership funding, the potential need could be $951 million.
In 2018, voters approved a $2.5 billion flood bond that included $5 billion worth of projects (first column). Part of the $2.5 billion voters approved (third column) was designed to help attract another $2.5 billion in partnership funding. But only $1.25 billion has materialized so far (fourth column). With other transfers already made (fifth, sixth and seventh columns), that leaves a need of $951 million.
The county intends to step up the search for partner funding. But if that funding does not materialize, it has also created a Flood Resilience Trust. The Trust would:
Backstop the 2018 Bond Program
Mitigate risks of increased construction costs
Potentially fund future flood risk reduction projects beyond the 2018 Bond Program
The Trust does not eliminate the need for partner funding. If partner funds materialize as hoped, HCFCD can use any excess money in the trust to construct future flood mitigation projects beyond the bond program.
The graphic below shows that $489 million has already been identified and allocated to the trust from various sources. The new element added on Tuesday (column six) includes $343 million in HCTRA funds. With rounding and other funds, that would help create a proposed Flood Resilience trust of $833 million to help cover the $951 need.
$40 Million Transfer Per Year from Toll Road Funds
Approximately $40 million per year would be transferred into the trust (red line in chart below). That should cover any unsecured spending through about 2027. By then, hopefully, HCFCD will have identified more partnership funds.
Commissioners spent a considerable amount of time debating the legality of transferring toll road funds to flood mitigation projects. The consensus: toll road development has impacted flooding in Harris County. Flood Control identified a $15 billion need to mitigate increased stormwater runoff caused by historical development of roadways. So, it should not be hard to find a transportation connection to most flood control projects that would satisfy auditors.
Equity Prioritization Framework Will Apply to Trust
The pie chart below shows the weights that will be given to various factors when deciding which projects to develop first with the additional funds.
They seem substantially similar, but the names of some factors have changed. For instance:
“Cost per structure” has replaced “project efficiency.”
“Flooding Frequency” has replaced “Existing Conditions/Drainage Level of Service.”
“Structures Benefitted” has replaced “Flood Risk Reduction.”
Cost per structure is not home value. It is the cost of the project divided by the number of homes benefitted.
“Structures Benefitted” counts the number of structures only, not the the value of those structures.
Thus, this factor gives more weight to densely developed urban areas.
Commissioners Ellis and Garcia have complained bitterly and repeatedly that FEMA Benefit/Cost Ratios for flood mitigation projects include a weighting factor for home value that theoretically gives higher preference to affluent neighborhoods. But that’s only one of many factors that FEMA considers.
This report from William & Mary’s law school explains that “impoverished communities may receive a Federal cost share of up to 90 percent of the total amount approved under the Federal award to implement eligible approved activities in accordance with the Stafford Act, but these communities must meet stringent criteria to receive funding.”
Regardless, I see no weight given to more valuable homes in Harris County’s prioritization guidelines. In fact, the density factor and social vulnerability combine for 45% of a project’s total score.
The biggest problem with this framework is that it doesn’t differentiate between street flooding and bayou flooding. Additional flood control projects for the bayous may not help homes that flood due to water collecting in streets.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/2021 based on information provided by Harris County Flood Control and Budget Management departments
1402 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/20210701-Screen-Shot-2021-07-01-at-12.57.11-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C665&ssl=16651200adminadmin2021-07-01 14:42:442021-08-24 14:51:31Harris County Creates Trust To Fully Fund Flood Mitigation Projects Without Partner Assistance For At Least Next Six Years
In its 5 a.m. Thursday update of the Atlantic Basin, the National Hurricane Center upgraded tropical depression 5 to Tropical Storm Elsa.
Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020.
Notice the beginning of an eye in Elsa at the 5 o’clock position and slight rotation.
Eastern Gulf Probabilities
At 5 a.m. Thursday 7/1/2021, forecasters believe that the eastern Gulf has up to a 30% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds by late this week or early next.
The tropical cyclone’s cloud pattern became a little better organized overnight. Convective banding features are becoming more evident over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation.
Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of the system, and restricted over the eastern semicircle. The current intensity is 35 knots, making the cyclone a tropical storm.
The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial motion is around 22 knots. A strong subtropical ridge should steer the system quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. However, there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5.
Disagreement Among Models, High Uncertainty
The ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K. Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one last night. However the discrepancy in the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual.
Some intensification is likely for the next day or two, since Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity.
However, potential interaction of Elsa with the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation somewhat. Therefore the official intensity forecast, like the previous one, is quite conservative.
Key Messages
Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.
Heavy rainfall from the system will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor the system’s progress and updates to the forecast.
Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
There is no forecast threat to the Houston area. Just beware in case you are traveling in the Caribbean or to Florida this week or next.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 6am on 7/1/2021 based on NHC information
At 10 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) posted an update on the two areas of disturbed weather that were approaching the windward islands this morning. One has already crossed the islands and has been downgraded. The NHC now gives it a 0% chance of tropical development. However, NHC upgraded the other storm system and gave it a number – Tropical Depression 5. NHC also issued a tropical storm warning for Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia. They also issued a tropical storm watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Guadaloupe.
The warning means that they expect tropical storm conditions in the next 36 hours. But a warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
Happy Fourth of July, Florida
At this point, however, it appears the storm will track toward Florida. The earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds: Sunday evening.
But the probability of that is less than 20% as of tonight.
Rescue Efforts in Condo Collapse Could be Affected
If the storm follows the predicted path, it will put Surfside, Florida on the dirty side of the storm, complicating rescue efforts in the condo collapse. However, NHC hastens to add that track questions exist given the high degree of uncertainty in the long-range forecast.
Pray for the rescuers and anyone who may still be alive in the rubble.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/2021 at 11PM based on information from the National Hurricane Center
1401 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/025646_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2021-06-30 22:53:232021-06-30 22:53:27One Storm Upgraded, Second Downgraded
A strong tropical wave located midday between Africa and the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to show increasing signs of organization. The red area below has an 80% chance of tropical formation in the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 8 a.m. this morning.
Red storm has 80% chance of tropical formation as of 8 am, June 30, 2021 according to National Hurricane Center.
Storm Farthest East Represents Biggest Threat
Convection has increased near a developing low-level, low-pressure system designated 97L for the moment. 97L has a large moisture envelop and conditions generally favor development as it moves westward.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist and the National Hurricane Center, a tropical depression will likely form in the next few days. It may also turn into a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands. They expect continued W to WNW motion bringing the system into and through the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend.
Models Diverge on Direction After Storm Enters Caribbean
It’s too early to tell where it goes after that. Some models suggest the system will turn WNW and NW while others maintain a more westward track. “There is reasonable support for both,” says Lindner.
Lindner emphasizes that it is early for tropical cyclones to form in this region of the Atlantic. While 97L may become a tropical storm as it approaches the Windward Islands, once it gets past them, it may encounter slightly less favorable conditions over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
While there is no significant threat to SE TX at this time, you should monitor 97L daily.
Nearest Storm Poses Less Threat
The yellow area is a second, separate area being monitored by the NHC. It is moving quickly WNW at 20 to 25 mph and will enter the Caribbean later today. However, it is producing only disorganized showers and thunderstorms so far and diverging trade winds may tear it apart. The NHC only gives it a 10% chance of tropical formation. So while it will bring heavy rainfall to the Lesser Antilles, it poses little danger to Houston.
For the latest information, the NHC updates storm tracks every 12 hours during the hurricane season and even more frequently if storms approach the U.S. mainland.
Posted by Bob Rehak based on information from HCFCD and the National Hurricane Center
1401 Days after Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2021-06-30 11:48:382021-06-30 11:49:41Two Systems Approaching Caribbean
Last in an eight part series on flood-mitigation funding in Harris County
For two years, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis and Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia have alleged that rich watersheds get all the flood-mitigation funding, while poor and minority watersheds get none. But data suggests that is far from the truth.
Three months ago, the din from Ellis and Garcia reached a crescendo. I became so alarmed about the allegations of racism in flood-mitigation funding, that I submitted a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Request to Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) for historical funding data by watershed. I also requested related data such as watershed size, damaged structures, the number of low-to-moderate-income (LMI) residents, and more.
Data Contradicts Ellis/Garcia Narrative
My analysis contradicted the carefully crafted Ellis/Garcia narrative. I found the exact opposite of what they claimed.
The most dollars flow to low-income watersheds which, coincidentally, have the most flood damage.
The strongest correlation I found with flood-mitigation “funding” since 2000 was “damaged structures.” And the percentage of low-to-moderate income residents in a neighborhood correlates very strongly to damage per square mile.
When you think about this, it makes sense. We put the most flood-control dollars in areas that flood the most.
Damage Per-Square Mile Correlates Highly with LMI %
To understand patterns in the data, one must start by evaluating damage “per square mile.” That’s because high- and low-income watersheds differ radically in size and number.
Harris County has only eight low-to-moderate income watersheds, but 15-high income watersheds.
The low-income watersheds are half the total size – 600 square miles vs. 1176 square miles.
When looking at damage on a per square mile basis, the highest concentrations occur in low-income neighborhoods.
LMI percentage and damaged structures per square mile have a 0.82 coefficient of correlation. Mathematicians consider that very strong. 1.0 is the highest you can get, a perfect correlation.
Damage includes structures flooded in four major storms since 2000 (Allison, Tax Day, Memorial Day and Harvey).
Low-income watersheds cluster on the left and high-income watersheds on the right because of “Damage,” not racial discrimination in mitigation funding. Mitigation dollars already overwhelming flow to minority and low-income neighborhoods as they have for decades.
Flood-Control Dollars Flow to Damage
There’s also a strong relationship between total funding and total damage. Notice how the shape of the curves align closely with a few exceptions.
Total funding since 2000 and the number of damaged structures show a 0.84 coefficient of correlation. Mathematicians consider that very strong.
You can see a general downward trend in both blue and orange, indicating a strong correlation. This relationship supports other statistical analyses in this series. (See links to previous articles listed below.)
At the highest level, when you look at the data from multiple perspectives, one thing stands out:
Dollars flow to damage, not affluent watersheds.
Possible Causal Links Between LMI Percentage, Damage and Funding
Touring lower income watersheds by car or helicopter helps explain why those watersheds have so much more damage and consequently receive so much more funding. In general, they:
Are much more densely packed with buildings, a consequence of more than twice the population density (3,900 residents/square mile compared to 1,600).
Have more impervious cover, so water can’t soak in as quickly or as much
Have many clogged roadside ditches and storm drains, due to poor maintenance by county precinct crews and the City of Houston’s Public Works Department. (Water has a hard time getting out of neighborhoods.)
Have more structures per acre.
Re: the last point, in Kashmere Gardens (an LMI neighborhood), I found six homes on a third of an acre worth more than my house on a full acre in Kingwood. The density can offset higher home values in suburban neighborhoods when calculating Benefit/Cost Ratios for FEMA or HUD.
Flood-Mitigation Funding by Watershed Since 2000
Here’s how much money each watershed received for capital improvement projects since 2000. No maintenance dollars or dollars committed to complete projects are included – only dollars “out the door” as of the end of March 2021.
The graph above dramatizes two things:
The wide variation from high to low. Luce Bayou received only $4.5 million while Brays received $510 million. That’s 113 to 1.
A few watersheds received multiples of the average and median, while far more received a small fraction.
Funding Data Disproves Racist Allegations
Remember that the next time you hear the allegations of racial discrimination from Ellis and Garcia. This discussion shouldn’t be about race. It should be about fixing flooding problems.
The government is not funding flood-control projects in rich areas that didn’t experience flood damage. It funds them in areas that had the MOST damage. Those just happen to be in minority and low-income neighborhoods. And it is critical that people focus on WHY those structures flooded if we are to find solutions.
Implying that they flooded because of racial bias is misdirection. The racial allegations divide and distract people. They also keep HCFCD, from focusing on real solutions to our flooding problems. That harms all voters in Harris County.
If commissioners continue to focus on race, it will prove they care more about political gamesmanship than fixing drainage.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/LMI-v-Funding-Per-Sq-Mi.jpg?fit=1200%2C713&ssl=17131200adminadmin2021-06-28 13:24:492021-11-18 15:37:54Flood-Mitigation Funding Flows to Damage, Not High-Income Neighborhoods
