2021 Report Card on Texas Flood-Issue Legislation To Date

With the Texas legislature days away from adjournment, it’s time to see how flood-related legislation fared. Out of the 20 bills listed below, one has a chance of turning into law.

Still Has a Chance

HB 531 – Floodplain Disclosure

This bill by Armando Walle of Houston relates to floodplain disclosure for leased dwellings. It has passed both the House and Senate and is awaiting the Governor’s signature. Several pieces of similar legislation did not fare as well. See below.

Better Luck Next Session!

HB 2525 – Lake Houston Dredging District

Dan Huberty’s proposed legislation to establish a Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District passed the house. But the it’s sitting in the Local Government Committee in the senate chaired by Senator Paul Bettencourt. So is the identical companion bill filed by Senator Brandon Creighton SB 1982. It’s been sitting in the same committee since April 8. Someone doesn’t want this to see the light of day. A group called WaterUsersCoalition.org is desperately trying to kill both bills with misinformation. The web site characterizes the bill as one that only benefits Kingwood and Atascocita drainage. It would have certainly done that, but it would also have helped maintain and restore the capacity of Lake Houston. The website also says it would be funded by taxes which the bill(s) explicitly prohibit. And implies that increasing lake capacity would somehow hamper the conversion from groundwater to surface water.

HB 4478 – Sand Mine Reclamation

Another bill by Huberty was referred to the House Natural Resources committee on 3/29. Nothing has happened to it since. The bill would have required two things: reclamation of sand mines at the end of mining and a performance bond to ensure they met certain criteria, such as the removal of all equipment. Died in committee.

Abandoned dredge at abandoned Texas Concrete Sand and Gravel mine in Plum Grove. The TCEQ has deemed this mine reclaimed; it’s now off their radar.
HB 767 – Sand Mining Best Practices

Yet another piece of legislation by Huberty – would have established best management practices for sand mines. The House Environmental Regulation Committee left the bill pending in committee, just as they did in the 2019 legislative session. TACA wins again. We’ll have to live with worst practices for at least another two years.

HB 4341 – Sand Mine Regulatory Responsibility

This bill By Kyle Beiderman of Fredericksburg – was sent to the House Environmental Regulation Committee on 3/29. They didn’t even hold a hearing on it. The bill would have transferred responsibility for regulating sand mines from the TCEQ to the Railroad Commission of Texas.

HB 2422 – Sand Mine Locations

A piece of proposed legislation by Erin Zwiener of Kyle, Tx. would have allowed County Commissioners (in counties with populations greater than 500,000) to prohibit sand mining or the expansion of sand mines when they are too close to homes, hospitals, churches and certain other facilities. The Environmental Regulation Committee has bottled that bill up since 3/16. TACA wins again.

HB 1912 – Sand Mine Nuisances

Proposed legislation by Terry Wilson of Georgetown would have stiffened regulations relating to nuisances associated with aggregate production operations such as blasting, noise, air quality and more. The Environmental Regulation Committee has left it pending since 4/19. TACA wins again.

HB 3116 – SJRA Board Appointments

Will Metcalf of Conroe introduced two bills to change the composition of the San Jacinto River Authority Board. This one, the first, would have reduced the number of directors on the SJRA board from 7 to 6 and changed the way they are appointed. The change would have guaranteed a majority of directors from Montgomery County. The House referred the bill to its Natural Resources Committee on 3/19. Nothing has happened to it since then.

HB 4575 – SJRA Board Elections

The second Metcalf bill would have made the SJRA board elected, rather than appointed by the government. But there was a hitch. It would have denied representation to downstream residents. Hasn’t gone anywhere since April 8.

SB 314 – Disclosure of Flood Zones for Leased Property

This piece of legislation by Joan Huffman of Houston got referred to the Business and Commerce committee on 3/9. Nothing has happened since. The bill would have mandated disclosure of flood risk for leased property in a flood zone. A similar bill passed in the last session for property for sale. However, the Committee has taken no action on the leasing bill since 3/9.

HB 1059 – Disclosure of Flood Zones on Vacant Land for Sale

Another flood plain disclosure bill by Phil Stephenson of Rosenberg would have required sellers of vacant lots smaller than 15 acres to disclose whether any portion of the lot was in a flood plain. The bill would also have let buyers recover damages if the property flooded within five years and the seller failed to disclose the flood plain. This bill made it out of the Business and Industry Committee. However, the Calendar Committee never brought it up for a vote on the House floor since 4/15. It’s companion bill in the Senate – SB 461 by Kolkhorst – also stalled.

HB 1956 – Climate Change Planning

Michelle Beckley of Carrollton introduced legislation that would have required certain state agencies to consider the impact of climate changes in their strategic plans. It got referred to the State Affairs Committee on 3/15. Ba Dump. Same for similar bills like HB 1949, SB306, HB 2017, HB 3246, and HB4178.

HB 655 – Feasibility Study for Statewide Disaster Alert System

This bill Richard Raymond of Laredo called for studying the feasibility, efficiency and benefits of setting up a statewide disaster alert system. It went to the Homeland Security and Public Safety Committee on 3/1. No action since.

SB 859 – Continuation of Electronic Meetings after COVID for Regional Flood Planning Groups

A common-sense bill by Charles Perry of Lubbock would have let Regional Flood Planning Groups continue to hold meetings via telephone conference call and videoconference after emergency COVID restrictions expire. The rationale: these groups are staffed by volunteers, many of whom have to drive across several counties to get to meetings. That can take all day in West Texas. It was voted out of the Senate Business and Commerce Committee before it ran out of gas. A companion bill, HB 2103, passed the House, but also stalled in the Senate.

Seems like a lot of good ideas were left on the table.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/2021 based on research by John Barr

1364 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Engineers Testifying for LCA are Electrical and Chemical, Not Civil

Yesterday’s post cited the testimony of two “licensed professional engineers” in the State of Texas who claimed that Lake Conroe could not refill from rainfall in the Spring or Fall after being lowered one foot to provide an extra margin of safety, which helps prevent flooding homes on both sides of the dam. However, the lake did refill…and then some…within two days after the Lake Conroe Association (LCA) filed their affidavits in its lawsuit to prevent the seasonal lowering.

Deeper investigation reveals that neither engineer is a civil engineer. One is an electrical engineer and the other a chemical engineer.

From https://pels.texas.gov/roster/pesearch.html

“The Engineer Shall Not…”

Here’s why it is important. Note Paragraphs A and C below.

From Page 84 of PDF at https://pels.texas.gov/downloads/lawrules.pdf

Paragraph A states that engineers shall practice only in their areas of competence.

Paragraph C states, “The engineer shall not express an engineering opinion in deposition before a court … which is contrary to generally accepted scientific and engineering principles without fully disclosing the basis and rationale for such an opinion.”

There was no such disclosure in their affidavits.

In fairness, the engineers also testified as residents and they had more concerns than flooding.

However, both:

  • Cited their professional credentials at the start of their affidavits – without disclosing their areas of expertise.
  • Drew the same conclusion about the inability of the lake to refill through rainfall – without stating the basis of their conclusions.

Mr. Elliott has retired and his license is inactive. Mr. Waitts’ license is still active.

Background

Only two days after LCA filed the engineers’ affidavits, rainfall raised the lake level two feet above normal, and threatened homes and businesses. SJRA had to release water at almost 10,000 CFS to avoid flooding them.

Seasonal Release from Lake Conroe, 529 cfs from one tainter gate open six inches.
SJRA Seasonal Release on 4/15/2020. One tainter gate open six inches released a slow, steady stream of 529 cfs.

Without the seasonal lake lowering policy, someone on either side of the dam would likely have flooded. Dam operators would have been forced to flip a coin to see who. But the seasonal lowering – about which the chemical and electrical engineers complained – helped protect everyone. No one, to my knowledge, flooded on either side of the dam due to river flooding.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/2021

1363 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

LCA Claims “Seasonal Lake Lowering Policy Does Not Allow Lake Conroe to Refill Through Rainfall in Spring, Fall”

Never says never. Especially in a lawsuit. It didn’t take long to disprove that claim! Two days after LCA filed the claim on April 28th, the SJRA had to open its gates to keep Lake Conroe homes and businesses from flooding. And they are still releasing water…three weeks later.

SJRA Dashboard as of 6pm Friday night, 5/21/2021. Normal level is 201. Despite near constant releases this month, the lake’s level has remained above average.

This afternoon, I read the third supplement to the petition by the Lake Conroe Association (LCA) in its lawsuit against the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) and nearly busted a gut laughing. After a week where we received more than half the rain for the year so far, I needed the comic relief. And got it.

Two licensed professional engineers – with more than 80 years of experience between them – filed affidavits. They claim that the SJRA’s seasonal lake lowering policy “does not allow Lake Conroe to refill through rainfall in the Spring and Fall.” Their claim is repeated over and over again in affidavits by others.

Lake Conroe Association’s Third Supplement to its Original Petition

SJRA Forced to Go Beyond Seasonal Lowering to Avoid Flooding

Twice this month, the SJRA has had to release water from Lake Conroe above and beyond the seasonal lowering policy to prevent flooding. After the May Day event, they released almost 10,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) for several days to keep the homes and businesses around Lake Conroe from flooding.

The boats are in slips, but the docks are underwater. Near Monty’s Lighthouse and Fajita Jacks on Lake Conroe on 5/1/2021, when the water level exceeded 203 feet halfway through the Spring seasonal lowering.

The rains this week have been more spread out, but the SJRA still had to release almost 3,000 CFS most days to reduce flood risk around Lake Conroe.

Engineers rarely deal in absolutes. They deal in extremes and qualify almost everything they say. But these intrepid professionals stepped over the edge on the far side of reality. Mother Nature always gets the last word.

One of Many Exaggerated Claims

The LCA lawsuit seeks to stop the SJRA’s seasonal lake lowering policy. The “refill” claim is just one of many exaggerated claims that LCA has made.

This lawsuit overflows with self-destructive claims and internal contradictions.

Say That Again!

The latest filing claims that the Lake Conroe Association has the authority to speak for all of its members because LCA feels it proved actual or imminent damages to at least one of its members. In logic, they call that “the fallacy of generalization.” I know at least one influential member of LCA who disagrees vehemently with the lawsuit. So which of those two individuals should we listen to?

LCA also asserts that the Association’s rights are “in every practical sense identical” with “its members.” Its interests, however, may not be.

Some may not find flooding enjoyable.

In its original petition, LCA claimed that its purpose was “over-seeing, directing, initiating, and promulgating programs that directly affect the control, use, and enjoyment of Lake Conroe…” Had it not been for the seasonal lake lowering policy, many homes and businesses upstream or down would likely have flooded after the May Day rains.

In the same sentence about enjoyment, LCA also claims that Lake Conroe is operated exclusively for the benefit of the citizens of Montgomery County, Texas.

Did they really mean to say that Lake Conroe is operated exclusively for MoCo residents when the City of Houston owns two thirds of the water in it?

At one point, the lawsuit claims the sole purpose of Lake Conroe is to supply drinking water. But most of LCA’s complaints refer to lost recreational opportunities.

The second supporting document LCA filed sought relief for irreparable damages but did not specify what those were. Previously LCA members have complained about:

Could Dredging Costs Be The Real Issue?

But LCA’s latest filing reveals what could be the real issue here: dredging. Reportedly, the former president of the LCA had shallow water next to some lakefront property he was trying to sell. But with the water lowered, shallowness made the property less marketable.

Shallow water especially impacts residents at the north end (headwaters) of the lake.

Some LCA affidavits claim that access channels to the lake have been cut off by siltation. This latest filing references dredging in numerous places.

Wildwood Shores claims the estimated cost to dredge area canals exceeds one million dollars. They have hired an engineering company to set up a multi-year dredging plan that would spread out the costs. But they worry that the costs may still not be affordable. Dredging companies have explained the costs of dewatering the dredged materials; hauling them out of the floodplain; and the Army Corps’ permitting process.

Residents from Wildwood Shores, an area without fire hydrants, also claim that the Sam Houston National Forest could burn down if a house fire gets out of control and the local fire department can’t find a way to draw water from the lake.

I wonder if they’ve compared the cost of dredging to putting in a water well and tank from which tanker trucks can refill. I googled “cost of water tanks” and quickly found one that holds 90,000 gallons for $35,000. That’s a lot less than a million dollars for dredging. And the capacity would be enough to fill up at least 30 of the tanker trucks they reference in the lawsuit. The engineer who filed that affidavit didn’t explore that option. Perhaps because he had something else in mind…like boating, for instance.

Let’s Focus on the Real Issues and Work Together

I’m not trying to minimize the:

  • Loss of recreational opportunities
  • Inconvenience of silt
  • Expense of dredging.

We in the Lake Houston Area have been grappling with those same issues…on top of the flooding that silt dams contribute to. They are all real.

But making claims that are false at face value; inventing one doomsday scenario after another; and ignoring reasonable, cost-effective alternatives only undermine your own credibility.

Keeping water high is a temporary solution at best. Eventually, silt will pop up all around Lake Conroe. Especially after heavy rains.

Until you start enforcing regulations that reduce the effects of egregious development (including sedimentation) and form a Flood Control District to help dredge, this problem will dog you.

Realize that we’re all in this together – upstream and down. Let’s focus on ways to mitigate our mutual problems, not fight each other for a temporary advantage.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/22/2021

1362 Days after Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

More Than Half the Rain This Year Has Fallen in May

According to the rain gage in my back yard, more than half the rain this year has fallen this month. I recorded:

  • Year to date = 24.98 inches
  • Month to date = 12.72 inches

That’s 51%.

If that’s not impressive enough for you, consider this.

11.19 of the 12.72 inches in May fell this week.

Bob’s backyard rain gage

The week isn’t even over for another 15 hours, and it’s still raining.

Street flooding on West Lake Houston Parkway near Kingwood Drive on 5/17/21 after 5.5 inches of rain fell in about 2.5 hours.

This May Compared to 30-Year Average for May

Compare this to the 30-year running average at Bush Intercontinental Airport – 5.09 inches. We’ve already gotten more than twice the average for the month, this week.

May is usually the third wettest month of the year after June (5.93 inches) and October (5.70 inches).

The record for May is 14.39 inches in 1970. That means we’re 1.39 inches short of the record. The NWS predicts another inch may fall today in the Lake Houston Area. And we have another 8 days left in the month with a substantial chance of rain every day through next Wednesday. So this could easily become the new record…at least according to Bob’s backyard gage. (The official one is at the big airport, of course.)

Below are the official stats. They also include norms and extremes for temperature, wind, cloudiness and more.

From Weather.gov

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/22/2021 based on information from the National Weather Service

1362 Days since Hurricane Harvey

NHC Upgrades Formation Chance of Gulf Disturbance Again

At 2 pm this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of tropical formation for a Gulf disturbance for the third time in 24 hours. Last night, the formation chance was 20%. This morning, it was 40%. This afternoon, NHC says 60%.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist expects the storm to make landfall sometime tomorrow morning near Matagorda Bay. That would put the Houston region on the dirty part of the storm. However, Lindner believes a tropical storm, if it forms, will be weak. Neither the wind, nor the rain, will likely cause much damage; sustained intensification is unlikely.

Another 1-3 Inches of Rain Likely

Main impact of this Gulf disturbance: rainfall with amounts of 1-3 inches and a few higher isolated totals. “Overall, the dry air wrapping into the system and the overall lack of organization should keep rainfall totals in the manageable range,” said Lindner. “With that said, much of the area will fall on the east side of the center track and we will have to be watchful for any sort of sustained bands that may attempt to setup and train for a period of time which would locally increase the rainfall totals. Creeks and bayous should be able to handle the forecasted rainfall.”

Tides are elevated and will remain elevated into the weekend with water levels near 3-4 feet above normal. At times of high tide, minor coastal flooding will be possible along the Gulf beaches and in the inland bays, but significant coastal flooding is not expected.

Satellite image of Gulf taken at 5:36 Houston time today.

NHC Forecast More Aggressive

According to the NHC, surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low-pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity of this Gulf disturbance remains limited, but any increase in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm.

Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this region, warns the NHC.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2021 at 6PM based on information from NASA, NHC, and HCFCD

1361 Days since Hurricane Harvey

More Rain on Way, but Flood Threat Minimal for Most

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is forming associated with the disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has upgraded the chances of tropical formation from 20 percent to 40 percent overnight. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and the flood threat from the storm is minimal.

Overnight, NHC upgraded the chances for tropical development of the disturbance along the Texas Coast from 20% to 40%.

Conditions Marginally Conducive to Tropical Development

NHC says conditions are marginally conducive for development. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight.

NOAA predicts three day rainfall totals for the Houston area to range from 1-3 inches. Note the circular formation in the system.

Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few days.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, “There has been very little thunderstorm activity near the feature overnight with dry air wrapping in from the west.”

Lindner cites two forecast models that continue to attempt to close off the system nears the coast. “However, given the appearance this morning, this potential continues to be modest.”

Regardless of any development…impacts will be minimal, says Lindner. High rain chances in the forecast are a function of moisture levels over the central Gulf of Mexico which will be pushed westward over the next 24-36 hours and into southeast Texas.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop with heating today and progress NW/WNW across the area.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Expect heavy rainfall under any areas of training cells. The National Weather Service has the eastern portions of the area under a slight risk for flash flooding today. 

However, the scattered nature of the showers and thunderstorms should keep rainfall amounts manageable for most – generally in the 1-3 inch range today into Saturday.

If the system over the Gulf develops into a tropical storm or depression near the coast later today or tonight, expect an increase in the potential for thunderstorm training, especially in areas east of Houston.

River and Lake Report

The break most of us had from heavy rains yesterday let many rivers and streams recover. Lake Conroe remains a little more than a half foot above normal and continues releasing water at the rate of 2,665 cubic feet per second.

Lake Conroe level as of 7:30 am on Friday, May 21, 2021

And Lake Houston remains a little more than a foot above normal.

From Coastal Water Authority as of 5/21/2021 at 7:30 am.

Rivers and streams have largely recovered from heavy rains earlier this week. Harris County’s Flood Warning System shows that the San Jacinto West Fork at 59 is falling and within its banks.

Peach Creek at FM2090 is out of its banks but falling.

However, the East Fork at FM2090 and FM1485 is in danger of coming out of its banks.

Overall, the flood threat remains low for most of us with these few exceptions.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2021, ten days from the official start of hurricane season, based on information from NHC, NWS, and HCFCD

1361 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Could This Be the Start of Hurricane Season?

After four days of heavy rains, today looked like a respite. This morning’s predictions mentioned another inch or two on Friday and Saturday. But then this the National Hurricane Center posted this within the last few minutes: a warning about what could turn into the season’s first tropical depression. And hurricane season doesn’t officially start for another ten days.

20% chance of formation for yellow area in next two to five days

20% Chance Before Official Start of Season

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “The old complex of thunderstorms that moved off the Texas coast yesterday has festered over the west-central Gulf of Mexico today. While the satellite images look impressive, there appears to be no closed low pressure system at the surface and instead a surface trough extending across the region. Thunderstorms have been weakening this afternoon and there is no new development.”

Radar this morning showed storm festering in Gulf with a stationary trough drawing moisture up through Texas and Lousiana.

“So far this evening,” continued Lindner, “there is a large area of dry air to the west of the feature in the Gulf. The dry air will likely become entrained over time. However, some models show additional development for this feature as it moves generally toward the NW or NNW in the general direction of the Texas and Louisiana coastlines.” 

NHC suggests the yellow feature has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 2 days.

National Hurricane Center

This feature could help to enhance rainfall amounts over SE Texas this weekend, but any additional impacts beyond that at this time appear to be minimal, according to Lindner.

Preparedness

This should serve to all that hurricane season begins in ten days. Don’t be caught unprepared. My Links page has many sites with helpful tips. You may also want to take this opportunity to bookmark the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, and Harris County Flood Warning System. They offer round the clock updates.

Take some time getting to know them know. During an actual storm, power outages and crowded bandwidth may make leisurely learning difficult.

Two other important sites for this area are the San Jacinto River Authority for Lake Conroe releases/levels and the Coastal Water Authority for Lake Houston levels. At this hour, the Lake Conroe is holding steady while releasing 2665 cubic feet per second. Lake Houston is still rising slightly with the flood gates wide open.

Lake Conroe Dashboard as of 7:30 PM on 5/20/21
Lake Houston as of 7:30PM , 5/20/21.

Posted By Bob Rehak on 5/20/21 Based on Information by NWS, NHC, HCFCD, SJRA, and Coast Water Authority

1360 Days since Hurricane Harvey

A Breather: Rain Mainly South of I-10 For Most of Day

Today, the Lake Houston Area may finally get a breather from non-stop storms that blanketed the area for the previous three days. That doesn’t mean that we won’t get more rain. And it doesn’t mean flooding is not possible. It just means streams and bayous may get a chance to drain.

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Light rainfall continues mainly south of I-10 across the area.”

RadarScope Pro as of 10:54AM Houston time shows a large complex of storms to Houston’s south and west. They are moving north but have been dissipating as they move past the I-10 corridor for most of the morning.

Says Lindner, “A complex of thunderstorms is moving well into the NW Gulf. Another moving offshore of south Texas will likely keep southeast Texas stable today with only passing light or moderate rain showers and those will mainly focus south of I-10. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday and Friday with continued high moisture levels over the area. However, the activity looks more scattered in nature and not as organized or intense as the last 48 hours.”

Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected over the next 48 hours with the higher totals likely focused south of I-10.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Rainfall In This Event Almost Half of Year’s Total So Far

My digital rain gage indicates that we’ve received almost as much rain in the last three and a half days as we have year to date. That’s 138 days.

Here’s a breakdown:

  • Year to date: 23.64 inches
  • March: 1.95 inches
  • April: 4.01 inches
  • May to date: 11.38 inches
  • May 16: 1.22
  • May 17: 5.57
  • May 18: 1.64
  • May 19 so far: 1.22

According to the National Weather Service, the normal cumulative precipitation for May (up to the 19th) is 3.12 inches. And the normal yearly precipitation through today is 16.42 inches. Before this is all over, we could skew those averages a bit. We’ve exceeded the monthly average to date by a factor of two in the last two days!

Two-day rainfall totals for most Harris County gages as of 5/19/2021 at 10AM.

Run-off

Run-off continues from the rainfall over the last 48 hours with widespread totals of 3-5 inches over much of the area and an isolated amount of 8.56 inches in the Huffman area. Here’s how that is affecting local rivers and streams.

Rivers and Stream

Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County remain elevated and in some cases near bankfull. So do the middle and upper portions of Cedar Bayou and the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Creeks in the northwestern portion of Harris County will crest and slowly fall this afternoon while rises will continue along the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River. Peach Creek at 2090 is flooding.

From Harris County Flood Warning System at 10am 5/19/2021
East Fork at New Caney should experience minor to moderate flooding in next five days.
West Fork at 59 should experience minor flooding in low lying areas by Saturday.
Peach Creek at FM290 is already out of its banks according to the Harris County Flood Warning System. As of 11 am, elevation was 99.1. A ten-year flood at this gage is 99.3.

Lake Report

Lake Conroe is at 201.64 feet (normal is 201) at this writing and and releasing 2,665 cubic feet per second. Notice that they no longer have a box for seasonal lowering. They now call that COH (City of Houston) Diversion. It’s not that they have discontinued the seasonal lowering; they’ve just changed the way they account for it, according to Jace Houston, SJRA’s general manager. When the Lake is above 201 and water is inbound as it is now, SJRA is allowed to release water without it coming from the City of Houston’s portion.

When the flood threat has passed, if and when the City calls to resume seasonal lowering, the rate will show up in the COH diversion box. SJRA seems to be trying to lay responsibility for any inconvenience to Lake Conroe boaters at the feet of the City of Houston, which has already been dismissed from the Lake Conroe Association lawsuit.

Meanwhile, Lake Houston is up about a quarter foot so far this morning, despite the flood gates being wide open.

As of noon on 5/19/21
How Lake Houston Levels have varied during the last 7 days. Graph shows up to noon on 5/19.

If rain during the rest of today remains light, SJRA may be able to avoid flooding people upstream and downstream, just as they did on May 1st, when the areas upstream from Lake Conroe received 8-10 inches of rain.

Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect Through Thursday Morning

In the meantime, a flash flood watch remains in effect for the Houston region through tomorrow morning. Chance of precipitation is 60% this afternoon, going up to 90% this evening. NWS predicts up to 1.25 inches of rain today and up to .75 tomorrow for the Kingwood area.

As of this morning, here’s how White Oak Creek looks from the back yard of Woodstream Forest resident.

Photo from a video courtesy of Donald and Kristi Brown. Taken on 5/19/2021.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/2021 at Noon based on information from the NWS, HCFCD, Coastal Water Authority and SJRA

1359 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Close Call for St. Martha School, Kids in Action Yesterday; More Heavy Storms Possible Tonight, Tomorrow

Update: The tornado watch mentioned below turned into a tornado warning at 9:15 pm when radar spotted rotation in storms on the west side of Houston. with hail as large as 1.75 inches.

On Monday afternoon, May 17, Kingwood received approximately 5.5 inches of rain. It fell at the rate of more than an inch in 15 minutes at one point. The downpour flooded streets and Ben’s Branch near the St. Martha School on Woodland Hills came out of its banks. Luckily, no buildings flooded, but these pictures show how close the water came. The video and all photos below were taken by John Sedlak as the rain ended.

Frustration shows on the face of staffers as they watch floodwaters race across the parking lot and near their steps.
View of main parking lot of St. Martha School. Bens Branch is in background.
At the Woodland Hills Bridge, Bens Branch briefly came out of its banks and threatened Kids in Action also.

At this point on Ben’s Branch, the man-made channel transitions to a natural one. Backups usually occur where that happens.

Compare this picture of the statue of Jesus taken yesterday with the one taken during Imelda below.
St. Martha School during Imelda on 9/19/2021

During Imelda, water DID get in the school. The damage took months to repair. As part of that process, the school “flood proofed itself.” Luckily that wasn’t needed yesterday.

Weather Tonight, Tomorrow Includes Tornado Watch Till 2 a.m

As I write this, my cell phone is blowing up with weather warnings, including a tornado watch. And I can hear distant claps of thunder.

Another line of thunderstorms is moving from the southwest to northeast, but also sliding toward the Lake Houston Area at the same time.

Image from KHGX radar taken from RadarScope Pro, an amazing app to increase situational awareness in extreme events. It provides coverage of most radars in North America.

Here’s the National Weather Service discussion associated with these storms. Highlights:

  • A tornado watch (#190) has been issued for most of the area until 2 a.m.
  • Flash flood watch expires Thursday morning.
  • Watch for rises on the East Fork of the San Jacinto and the Trinity.
  • In Harris County, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek remain high and will need to be watched if heavy rain develops.
  • Releases from area reservoirs such as Lake Conroe will play a role in streamflow and water levels

An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher totals will be possible today. A stronger upper level disturbance will bring yet another round of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday with additional totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain with again locally higher totals possible. Storm total rainfall by Thursday morning will average between 4 and 8 inches with isolated totals possibly exceeding 10 inches. The flood threat will be strongly dependent on where the rain falls and how quickly it falls.

Protective Actions for Tornadoes

Be Prepared.  Have a safe room available and be ready to shelter quickly if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area or if you suspect a tornado is near.  Bring pets indoors and delay travel until the threat of severe weather has passed.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area:

  • Get In:  Get inside a sturdy structure, find shelter in an interior room, away from windows.
  • Get Low:  Seek shelter on the lowest floor possible, or underground, if possible.
  • Hold On:  Grab on to a sturdy object and hold on.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/2021 at 8:30 p.m. based on information from HCFCD, NWS and Alert Houston

1358 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tuesday AM Rain Outlook: Heating Up, Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning.

A serious flash flood threat remains in place over all of SE TX and much of eastern TX into Thursday.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “After the storms from yesterday, deeper moisture has been pushed toward the coastline and offshore, but will rapidly return today.

A slow moving line of thunderstorms moved through the area on Monday producing generally 1 to 4 inches of rain across the area with localized areas of 6 to 8 inches in Liberty, eastern Montgomery, and northeastern Harris County.

The National Weather Service says that a lull in the precipitation occurred overnight, but the chance for heavy rainfall returns this morning as an upper level disturbance moves through the area. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher totals will be possible today. A stronger upper level disturbance will bring yet another round of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday with additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain with again locally higher totals possible. Storm total rainfall by Thursday morning will average between 4 and 8 inches with isolated totals possibly exceeding 10 inches. The flood threat will be strongly dependent on where the rain falls and how quickly it falls.

Today-Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop with heating today. But it continues to be hard to pinpoint where storms may develop. By this afternoon, storms will likely begin to approach southeast Texas from the west and northwest. They may also possibly approach again from the northeast or north into the evening and overnight hours. See the satellite photo below.

Satellite image as of about 8 a.m. Houston time this morning.

Wednesday-Early Thursday

An upper level trough will transport extreme moisture into the region along with the jet stream. Models many possible scenarios from slow moving lines to quickly approaching complexes from the west. Regardless, the overall pattern favors heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and severe weather. 

Rainfall Amounts

Lindner expects additional rainfall totals of 4-6 inches over the next 48 hours with isolated totals of 10-12 inches. Much of what falls is going to come in short intense bursts of rainfall, he says, and not spread out evenly over time.

The National Weather Service gives our eastern and northern counties a moderate risk of flash flooding today. The risk area should enlarge tomorrow across the entire region.

Excessive rainfall outlook for today
Excessive rainfall outlook for Wednesday and Thursday.

The orange areas indicate moderate risk. That means a 20-50% chance of excessive rainfall.

River, Stream Report

Run-off continues across the region this morning from the heavy rainfall yesterday. Cedar Bayou upstream of US 90 remains high, but has crested and is slowly falling. Spring Creek is rising as upstream run-off from northern Waller County moves into the mainstem of the creek. Not flooding is expected, but the creek will be elevated through the day. West Fork of the San Jacinto River is rising due to inflow from Spring and Cypress Creeks and will crest later this morning.

Both the SJRA and Coastal Water Authority are releasing water from Lake Conroe and Lake Houston preemptively. However, both lakes remain a few inches above their normal levels at the moment.

Additional rainfall over the next few days will quickly run-off resulting in new rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers. Some flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers will be possible.

Forecasted Rainfall Next 72 Hours

Predicted accumulations through Friday. Source: National Weather Service

Photo of White Oak Creek from Yesterday

White Oak Creek yesterday flowing near the Woodstream home of Donald and Kristi Brown on Brook Shore Court after a 5.5-inch rain fell on most of Kingwood.

As I write this, the rain has started already this morning. Let’s hope the rain is spread out enough that the creeks can handle it. As predicted, so far it’s coming down in sporadic bursts mixed with light drizzle.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/2021 based on information provided by the NWS, HCFCD, and Donald Brown

1358 Days since Hurricane Harvey