The previous Drainage Criteria Manual posted on the MoCo Engineer’s site is dated 1989, but appears to have some minor updates from 2019. The Subdivision Rules and Regulations for new developments date even further back, to 1984, although they too had new amendments and addenda incorporated in July, 2021.
MoCo hired Halff Associates to do the updating. Their fee: $302,000.
Welcome News
This is welcome news for people in northern Harris County. Drainage and engineering standards in MoCo have lagged those in Harris. That has created adverse downstream impacts even though developers may technically meet MoCo requirements. But the lower standards enable them to claim “no adverse impacts” when, in fact, there may sometimes be some.
Changes Could Reduce Flooding in MoCo and Harris Counties
Since Harvey, the Harris County Engineering Department and Flood Control District have worked to get surrounding counties to adopt five minimum drainage standards. They include:
Requiring “no net fill” in the current mapped 500-year floodplain
Require the minimum Finished Flood Elevation of new habitable structures be established at or waterproofed to the 500-year flood.
Scope of Content Updates
The Scope of Work approved by MoCo Commissions last week shows that Halff will examine most, if not all, of these issues and more. The effort will evaluate and potentially update, at a minimum:
Hydrologic methodology (this includes hydrographic timing but is broader)
Detention sizing and outfall design
Open channel design frequency and requirements
Floodplain analysis.
Process for Updates
The scope of work also defines the process that Halff will follow. It includes:
Coordination with County engineering staff
Evaluation of existing manuals
Identifying dated criteria/information
Comparisons with neighboring counties‘practices (see below)
Revisions
Development of the new documentation
Stakeholder review and reporting
Presentation to Commissioners Court
Reporting approved changes to adjacent counties.
Work should take about a year.
Comparison with Regs in Other Entities
For the drainage Criteria Manual, Halff will compare criteria from TxDOT, Harris County, HCFCD, Waller County, Fort Bend County, and Brazoria County.
Halff will compare MoCo’s Subdivision Rules and Regulations to those in Harris, Waller, Fort Bend, and Walker Counties.
This is more good news for those in northern Harris County.
About Halff Associates
A source in the engineering community characterized Halff as a good company. He said, “The Montgomery County manual is in good hands….as long as they let Halff do the right things.”
Halff will work with the MoCo Engineer Jeff Johnson on the updates.
Subdivision Rules and Regulations
Neither the Scope of Work, nor Commissioners discussed specific recommendations for updates to Subdivision Rules and Regulations. But Commissioners did request an opportunity to discuss and review updates on both manuals before they came back to Commissioners Court for final approval.
Immediate Impact
One former MoCo employee said, “There is still the hurdle of the court adopting the updated standards. Expect a rush of drainage studies to be submitted in the next year so they can be grandfathered in.”
We saw this in the City of Houston (CoH), for instance, with the Laurel Springs RV Resort. The detention pond in that development is half the size required by new standards. CoH permitted it one day before the new standards went into effect.
Related News: MoCo Floodplain Administrator Office
At about 40 seconds into the video for Items 17 and 18 on the agenda, the Commissioners approved a motion to have Precinct 2 Commissioner Charlie Riley oversee MoCo’s Office of the Floodplain Administrator. Reasons for the change were not clear. Discussion happened in Executive Session.
All we have to go by is the outcome. And the outcome shows that MoCo is bringing the Office of the Floodplain Administrator – for the whole county – under the direct, political control of one precinct commissioner. Interesting.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/2022
1825 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Five years after Harvey, post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) still haunts many of the victims. Readers have written me about how hard they find it to shake painful memories.
Some complain about periodic flashbacks, often related to a trigger event, such as looking at a photo of a cherished possession they lost in the flood.
Others still panic in thunderstorms or can’t sleep when it rains.
Many feel rising anxiety as they track each new storm crossing the Atlantic.
Dozens feel anger at or get depressed by the slow pace of mitigation.
Two even told me recently that they may move away. Recovery after Harvey was so traumatic that they “can no longer live with the risk of flooding again” as one succinctly phrased it.
Recurring, Unwanted, Intrusive Thoughts
These different reactions represent a spectrum that most likely reflects a blend of the individuals’ experiences and tolerance for risk. The thing they all have in common: recurring, unwanted, intrusive thoughts that they find disturbing or disruptive.
Even though PTSD symptoms may not be as strong or as frequent as they were immediately after the storm, some still find them hard to shake and difficult to handle.
The Professionals’ Perspective
So, I contacted two local, highly respected therapists, Janice Costa LPC, LMFT, and Joni Adams M.A., LPC-S, to learn more.
Both said that they rarely see clients with Harvey trauma as their main complaint these days. But Harvey does often come up when dealing with clients’ other concerns.
Said Costa, “Things pile up. It wasn’t just the flood. It often relates to dealing with the aftermath.”
Chain-Reaction Traumas
That fits with what people have told me. One trauma piles on top of another. At first, it might have been throwing out treasured family heirlooms, such as a grand piano. Seeing belongings piled at the curb. Losing privacy as strangers gutted your home. Dealing with absentee contractors. Living in travel trailers for 18 months. Applying for financial aid. Waiting years for a check, then being denied. Depleting savings or cashing in their kids’ college funds to pay for repairs. Living with the consequences of that as kids apply to colleges. Losing a lifestyle once loved and friends cherished.
We’ve all heard similar stories.
The trauma caused by a storm like Harvey can have extensive and long-lasting consequences. Like a series of dominos, one thing leads to another, triggering recurrent and unwanted thoughts of the original event.
Said Costa, “They’re still trying to process one trauma, when something new happens. It’s like the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
Trigger Events
Without revealing any patient information, both Adams and Costa talked about things that trigger flashbacks.
Said Adams, “Many people find that anniversary dates of trauma events are triggers. So are stimuli similar to the client’s experience (such as heavy rain, street flooding, weather notifications, or storms in the Gulf).”
Costa mentioned that sometimes the traumas can be unrelated or only loosely related. For instance, one reader told me about the death of a parent. The parent had taken in her daughter’s family after the storm. At the parent’s funeral, the memories of Harvey, mixed with grief, became overpowering for the daughter.
Blended Traumas
Adams echoed Costa’s observations. “Although clients may not present with Harvey complaints as their primary reason for entering therapy today, it likely still affects some. Some already had a trauma history when Harvey hit. Then they experienced more trauma in the years following. Harvey gets blended into the client’s internal reality as opposed to being seen as an isolated trauma event that happened five years ago.”
“Because of my son’s allergies, we couldn’t move back in until all the drywall repairs were finished.”
“For some clients, the correlation between Harvey and current PTSD symptoms may be clearly identifiable,” said Adams. But in others it may be hard to link symptoms directly to Harvey alone.
The woman who owned the house above, for instance, was struggling with the aftermath of a divorce and her son’s medical issues when Harvey struck. She told me with a tear in her eye, “I can’t do this anymore.” Her parting gift to Houston was emotional testimony to the SJRA board about her experience. During her talk, she broke down crying; so did some in the audience. Shortly after that, she moved closer to family in another state.
Progression of PTSD
Said Costa, “After Harvey there were people who had symptoms of PTSD within a few weeks. Some took much longer to show symptoms. Not everyone who flooded got PTSD.
“With the flood many people dealt with multiple traumas. PTSD can often be dealt with within six months, but in some people it can become chronic and last for years. There definitely are people still suffering from PTSD caused by the flood.”
Costa also talked about how PTSD might manifest itself in people’s lives today. It varies from client to client. “Intrusive thoughts about what they went through, avoidance of external reminders, negative changes in thoughts and mood, and changes in reactivity are all recognized symptoms. People may still be having nightmares, sleep disturbances, intrusive thoughts, inability to concentrate, and more anxiety than in the past.”
“Some feel like their brains are stuck in danger mode.”
Janice Costa, LPC, LMFT
Costa also talked about children and people in their seventies. “Children who have PTSD,” she said, “may be emotionally numb for a period, or have depression and/or anxiety.”
“I also see people in their seventies with these negative flashbacks,” she added. “They can crop up after being dormant for years.” When I asked about why, she theorized that it might relate to the extra time that people in retirement have to ponder life. She observed, “They aren’t consumed by the obligations of work and raising kids.”
EMDR Therapy
Many people who experience fears, anxiety, or sleep problems may not realize that therapy could help. Both Adams and Costa mentioned the success they have had with EMDR therapy. People continuing to struggle may wish to explore the EMDR International Association site. EMDR stands for Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing.
The Association says, “EMDR is a structured therapy that encourages the patient to briefly focus on the trauma memory while simultaneously experiencing bilateral stimulation (typically eye movement), which is associated with a reduction in the vividness and emotion associated with the trauma memories.”
Therapists use EMDR to help people recover primarily from trauma and PTSD symptoms. However, therapists also use it to treat symptoms of anxiety, depression, OCD, chronic pain, addictions, and other distressing life experiences.
Other therapies sometimes used include Trauma Resolution Therapy and Desensitization Therapy.
If you still experience PTSD symptoms, you may want to explore one of these alternatives. The memory of Harvey may never go away. So, it’s best to learn how to live with it. It could become burned into our collective consciousness under the heading of History. After all, we still talk about the Galveston hurricane of 1900!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/22
1824 Days (Five Years) since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/IMG_3456.jpg?fit=640%2C480&ssl=1480640adminadmin2022-08-27 17:27:122022-08-27 18:58:40Some Still Deal with PTSD, Five Years after Harvey
Tomorrow is the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Harvey. Many in the Lake Houston Area have asked, “Are we safer now?” The answer is yes, but we have a long way to go to achieve all our goals. Here’s a five-year flood-mitigation report card. It describes what we have and haven’t accomplished in 29 areas. So get ready for a roller coaster ride. I’ll leave the letter grades to you.
Lake Houston Area Mitigation
1) Dredging
The most visible accomplishment in the Lake Houston Area since Harvey is dredging. The City and Army Corps removed approximately 4 million cubic yards of sediment blocking the West and East Forks. Before dredging, River Grove Park flooded six times in two months. Since dredging, it hasn’t flooded once to my knowledge.
West Fork mouth bar after Harvey and before dredging. Now gone, but not forgotten.
Potential location for new tainter gates east of the spillway portion of the dam (out of frame to the right.
3) Upstream Detention
To reduce the amount of water coming inbound during storms, the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study identified 16 potential areas for building large stormwater detention basins. Unfortunately, they had a combined cost of $3.3 billion and would only reduce damages by about a quarter of that.
So, the SJRA recommended additional study on the two with the highest Benefit/Cost Ratio. Their hope: to reduce costs further. The two are on Birch and Walnut Creeks, two tributaries of Spring Creek near Waller County. Expect a draft report in February next year.
Funding these would likely require State assistance. But the Texas Water Development Board’s San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group has just recently submitted its first draft report. The draft also recommended looking at detention basin projects on West Fork/Lake Creek, East Fork/Winters Bayou, and East Fork/Peach Creek.
Building them all could hold back a foot of stormwater falling across 337 square miles. But funds would still need to be approved over several years. We’re still a long way off. Results – on the ground – could take years if not decades.
4) “Benching”
The Regional Flood Planning Group also recommended something called “benching” in two places along 5 miles of the West Fork. In flood mitigation, benching entails shaving down a floodplain to create extra floodwater storage capacity. Like the detention basins, benching is still a long way off…if it happens at all.
5) West Fork Channel Widening
Finally, the Regional Flood Planning Group recommended widening 5.7 miles of the West Fork to create more conveyance. But again, at this point it’s just a recommendation in a draft plan.
San Jacinto River Authority
6) SJRA Board Composition
After Harvey, many downstream residents accused SJRA of flooding downstream areas to save homes around Lake Conroe. At the time, SJRA’s board had no residents from the Humble/Kingwood Area. So Governor Abbott appointed two: Kaaren Cambio and Mark Micheletti. Cambio later resigned due to a potential conflict of interest when she took a job with Congressman Dan Crenshaw. That leaves Micheletti as the lone Humble/Kingwood Area resident on a seven-person board. However, the SJRA points out that the Board’s current president, Ronnie Anderson, represents Chambers County, which is also downstream.
State Representative Will Metcalf, who represents the Lake Conroe area, introduced a bill to limit SJRA board membership to upstream residents. Luckily for downstream residents, it failed.
7) Lake Conroe Lowering
SJRA identified temporary, seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe as a strategy to reduce downstream flood risk until completion of dredging and gates projects in the Lake Houston Area. The lowering creates extra storage in the lake during peak rainy seasons. After SJRA implemented the plan, Lake Conroe residents objected to the inconvenience. They sued SJRA and the City, but lost. After discussion with all stakeholders, the SJRA quietly modified its plan. It still lowers the lake, but not as much.
8) Lowering Lake Houston
Houston also started lowering Lake Houston, not seasonally, but in advance of major storms. The City has lowered the lake more than 20 times since beginning the program. That has helped to avoid much potential flooding to date.
9) Lake Conroe Dam Management
SJRA applied for and received several TWDB grants to enhance flood mitigation and communications in the San Jacinto River Basin. One involves developing a Lake Conroe Reservoir Forecasting Tool. SJRA has also worked with San Jacinto County to develop a Flood Early Warning System.
Finally, SJRA’s Lake Conroe/Lake Houston Joint Reservoir Operations Plan is on hold pending completion of the City’s plan to add more gates to the Lake Houston dam. Such projects may help reduce the risk of releasing unnecessarily large volumes of water in the future.
However, the location is controversial. Geologists say it wouldn’t reduce sediment in the area of greatest damage. Environmentalists worry that it could increase sedimentation through a “hungry-water” effect and open the door to river mining. And I worry that, even if successful, the pilot study would not be extendable. That’s because it relies on partnerships with sand miners. And other tributaries to Lake Houston do not have sand mines or as many sand mines.
Sand bar blocking West Fork after Harvey. The Corps has since removed it.
Federal Funding
It’s hard to get good grades on your flood mitigation report card without funding.
$1.6 million for HCFCD for Taylor Gully stormwater channel improvement.
$1.6 million for HCFCD for Kingwood Diversion Channel improvement.
$1.67 million for Harris County for the Forest Manor drainage improvement project in Huffman.
$8.2 million from FEMA the Westador Basin stormwater detention project on Cypress Creek.
$9.9 million from FEMA for the TC Jester storm water detention basin on Cypress Creek.
Crenshaw also has backed community requests for more funding in Fiscal 23. They include:
$8 million for the Lake Houston Dam Spillway (Gates).
$10 million for the Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin (see below).
$10 million for a Cedar Bayou Stormwater Detention Basin.
Harris County Flood Control
19) Channel Maintenance and Repair
Harris County Flood Control has already completed several maintenance projects in the Lake Houston Area. In Kingwood, those projects include Taylor Gully, Ben’s Branch, parts of the Diversion Ditch and other unnamed ditches. In Atascocita, HCFCD also completed a project on Rogers Gully. Upstream, HCFCD is working on the third round of repairs to Cypress Creek. Batch 3 includes work at 12 sites on 11 channel sections. I’m sure the District has maintenance projects in other areas, too. I just can’t name them all.
Bens Branch near Kingwood High School after sediment removal.
In 2019, uncontrolled stormwater from the Woodridge Village development twice flooded approximately 600 homes in Elm Grove Village and North Kingwood Forest. HCFCD and the City purchased Woodridge from Perry Homes last year. HCFCD soon thereafter started removing sediment from the site to create a sixth stormwater detention basin that would more than double capacity on the site. At the end of last month, contractors had removed approximately 50,000 cubic yards out of 500,000 in the contract. This gives HCFCD a head start on excavation while engineers complete the basin’s final design.
21) Local Drainage Study Implementation
HCFCD authorized four studies of the drainage needs in the Lake Houston Area. They completed the Huffman and Kingwood studies. Atascocita and East Lake Houston/Crosby started earlier this year and are still underway.
The Kingwood study measured levels of service in all channels and outlined strategies to improve them to the 100-year level. The first two projects recommended: Taylor Gully and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Neither has started construction yet. But see the notes under funding above.
The Huffman Study recommended improvements to FM2100, which TxDOT will handle. It also recommended dredging in the East Fork near Luce Bayou which the City has completed. Finally, it recommended a bypass channel for Luce. However, pushback from residents forced cancellation of that project.
22) Buyouts
HCFCD completed buyouts of 80+ townhomes on Timberline and Marina Drives in Forest Cove last month. Contractors demolished the final run-down complex in August. That should improve property values in Forest Cove.
Completion of demolition of one of the last Forest Cove Townhome Complexes in July 2022.
23) Regulation Harmonization
Harris County Flood Control and Engineering have been working to get municipalities and other counties throughout the region to adopt certain minimum drainage regulations. I discussed the importance of uniformly high standards in last night’s post. So far, about a third of the governments have upgraded their regs. A third are still deciding whether to act. And the remainder have taken no action. There has been little movement in the last six months.
City of Houston
As mentioned above, the City has taken a lead role in dredging, adding gates to Lake Houston, and proactive lake lowering. In addition, the City has helped with:
24) Bridge Underpass Clean-Out
The City of Houston successfully cleaned out ditches under Kingwood Drive and North Park Drive in at least six places. Bridges represent a major choke point during floods. So eliminating sediment buildups helps reduce flood risk in areas that previously flooded.
Excavation of Bens Branch under Kingwood Drive by City crews.
The lowest score on the flood-mitigation report card probably goes to LSGCD.
26) Subsidence
The Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District has started pumping groundwater again at an alarming rate. Projected subsidence near the Montgomery County Border equals 3.25 feet, but only 1 foot at the Lake Houston dam. That could eventually tilt the lake back toward the Humble/Kingwood/Huffman area and reduce the margin of safety in flooding. That’s bad news.
Sand Mining Regulations
Twenty square miles of West Fork sand mines immediately upstream from I-69 have exposed a swath of floodplain once covered by trees to heavy erosion during floods. Mathematically, the potential for erosion increased 33X compared to the normal width of the river. Sand mines were also frequently observed releasing sediment into the river. And the dikes around the mines often wash out.
So in 2019, the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative (LHAGFPI) began meeting with legislators, regulators and the Texas Aggregate and Concrete Association (TACA). The goal: to establish comprehensive Best Management Practices (BMPs) for the sand mining industry in the San Jacinto River Basin.
27) Mine Plan/Stabilization Reports Now Required
TCEQ adopted new regulations, effective January 6, 2022. They required miners to file a ‘Mine Plan’ by July 6, 2022 and also a ‘Final Stabilization Report’ when a mine is played out.
28) Vegetated Buffer Zones (Setbacks)
The new regs also stipulate undisturbed vegetative buffer zones around new mines. Buffer zones aid in sediment filtration and removal by slowing surface water. They also strengthen dikes.
The new regs require a minimum 100-foot vegetated buffer zone adjacent to perennial streams greater than 20 feet in width. However, for streams less than 20 feet wide, the buffer zone is only 50 feet for perennial streams, and 35 feet for intermittent streams.
29) Reclamation Bonds
Unfortunately, the Flood Prevention Initiative could not convince TCEQ to require ‘reclamation bonds.’ Other states use such bonds to prevent miners from abandoning mines without taking steps to reduce future erosion, such as planting vegetation.
My apologies to any projects or parties I omitted. Now it’s your turn. Give grades to those you think have done the best job on YOUR Harvey flood-mitigation report card.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/26/22
1823 Days since Hurricane Harvey and one day from Harvey’s Fifth Anniversary
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/20210416-DJI_0406.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2022-08-26 22:09:382022-08-27 12:10:28Harvey: A 5-Year Flood-Mitigation Report Card
Why do we flood? To clarify the obvious: Too much rain … creates too much runoff … in too little time … over terrain that’s too flat. Now, dig a little deeper.
Ask a slightly different question: “Why do we experience so much flood damage?” You get slightly different, but related reasons. Based on what I’ve learned while researching more than 2,000 articles since Harvey, the reasons include:
Inaccurate predictions of future rainfall.
Conflicting development standards and building codes.
Building too close to threats.
Upstream changes that undermine our assumptions.
Difficulty of adapting downstream.
Historical unwillingness to fund flood mitigation at meaningful levels.
Many of these self-inflicted wounds have to do with self-interest and the problems we have working together. Let’s explore each in more detail.
Inaccurate Predictions of Future Rainfall
Periodically, scientists update our predictions of future rainfall. No one is omniscient. We can only guess at what might happen in the future based on what has happened in the past. So we rely on a branch of mathematics called EVA (extreme value analysis). EVA predicts the probability of future events based on the observation of extremelyrarepastevents. But that means the mathematicians work with extremely small data sets. And that, in turn, means their confidence is low. So, every time a new superstorm comes along, they get to re-evaluate assumptions.
During the past 20 years, our rainfall assumptions have officially changed at least twice: after Allison and after Harvey. Each monster storm pushed predictions higher. After Harvey, predictions increased 25-30% compared to Allison.
Atlas 14 rainfall probabilities adopted by Harris County after Harvey.
And the amount of runoff new developments must retain varies accordingly. If just one development cut corners, you’d probably never see the difference. But if hundreds or thousands of upstream developments do not retain enough rain, you will.
The casualties in this upstream/downstream conflict will include those who bought homes or built businesses near the limit of the old assumptions. If they were at the edge of the floodplain before, now they’re in it. New floodplain maps based on Atlas-14 have not yet been officially released, but…
We use these imperfect and shifting predictions of future rainfall to design margins of safety into new developments. So your safety depends on when your house was built. And where.
Conflicting Development Standards and Building Codes
Humans, both private individuals and public officials, act in their self interest. Therefore, they also disagree about the probability of future risk. This often brings private property rights and public interest into conflict. People who own cheap land in floodplains, or worse yet in floodways, often want to develop it.
But higher standards can impact developers’ profits now. And the consequences of not observing those standards may not be visible for decades.
Meanwhile, politicians are eager to attract new development. And they live in a competitive world. Higher standards and strict enforcement can cause developers to look elsewhere for more attractive opportunities. So some politicians are reluctant to adopt higher standards.
That has created a patchwork quilt of regulations in the seven-county region. After Harvey, Harris County tried to get all municipalities and counties to adopt five minimum standards. Five years later, we’ve had mixed results. See below.
Variation in shifting and conflicting standards makes it difficult for home buyers, lenders, and even engineers to assess flood risk. “Whose 100-year floodplain are you talking about?”
And when floodplain standards do change, affected home and business owners may fight them because being in a floodplain could reduce the value of their property.
Building Too Close to Threats
People normally like water. They just don’t like it four feet deep in their homes. Water is part of our DNA. We like to live close to it; aspire to own beach homes; and vacation at the shore. We even pay premiums for homes with soothing water views – despite the higher risk.
However, those same locations can turn into raging torrents of water that destroy homes, businesses, vehicles, lives, and our illusions of safety.
Many people find understanding flood risk difficult. And even if they understand it intellectually, they may repress it emotionally.
After all, who wants to think about the possibility of dying in a traffic accident every time he/she goes to the grocery store?
So most people deny and ultimately compromise. For decades, they compromised by purchasing nationally subsidized flood insurance. Until the advent of Risk Rating 2.0 last year, flood insurance didn’t reflect the true cost of payouts.
That subsidy insulated both buyers and sellers. It allowed developers to build in risky, marginal areas without fear of finding homes unsaleable.
The availability of subsidized flood insurance fueled whole industries that made money off of cheap floodplain land.
Among those industries – engineering. Houston has hundreds of engineering companies that study ways to build “safely” near water. The vast majority are highly ethical. But what if you live downstream from a project with an engineering firm that wasn’t? Life can change in an instant.
Upstream Changes that Undermine Downstream Assumptions
Upstream changes cause downstream consequences. I once owned a home in the Dallas/Fort Worth area overlooking a creek. Engineers and surveyors certified that the home was two feet above the 100-year floodplain when built.
But Plano, just upstream from us, was the fastest growing city in America at the time. A new shopping mall with 80+ acres of parking changed things quickly. On small rains, water started coming up to our back door. One day, after a moderate rain, I saw a pickup floating down the creek.
After I complained to our City engineer, he requested the Army Corps to resurvey the creek. The Corps found that the upstream development had changed the floodplain.
Instead of being two feet above the 100-year floodplain, we were now 10 feet below it.
Unwilling to live with that risk, we sold our house, took a loss on it, and moved to Kingwood – two miles from the San Jacinto West Fork on one of the highest points in Harris County.
But soon Conroe became the fastest growing city in America! And Montgomery County became the second fastest growing county in the region. During my 40 years here, I’ve watched floods get higher and higher until, during Harvey, the Cajun Navy launched rescue boats from our driveway.
If all those new upstream developments really had “no adverse impact,” how did that happen? Was Harvey just a freak, monster storm? Yes. But manmade changes upstream also exacerbated the flooding. Engineering firms eager to deliver cost-effective answers for clients pushed the envelope. For instance, I could cite examples where engineers:
Used obsolete rainfall probability statistics to minimize the amount of stormwater detention needed. That increased the number of salable lots and the developer’s profitability.
Mischaracterized soil types to overestimate the rate of infiltration. That virtually eliminated the need for floodwater detention basins.
Tried to build 50-story high rises on land soon to be reclassified as floodway.
Accelerated water flowing into rivers during floods rather than retaining it. To justify this, they used a questionable type of study allowed by Montgomery County but outlawed in Harris County because it makes floods peak higher and faster downstream.
If enough companies push the envelope as these did, gradually flood peaks change, as shown in the graph below.
Red line shows how Brays Bayou watershed would have handled Tropical Storm Allison in 1915 before development. Blue line shows time of accumulation in 2000. Note faster, higher flood peak.
Does anyone really know how all that new impervious cover upstream affects flood peaks downstream? Some areas still use flood data from the 1980s.
Difficulty of Adapting Downstream
Lack of upstream regulation and enforcement saveupstream residents money. But they costdownstream residents. The burden of mitigation costs falls on Harris County residents, not our surrounding counties. And mitigation costs billions of dollars!
It’s easy to build a floodwater detention basin or widen a channel before development, but a Herculean task afterwards.
Another aspect of the difficulty: political conflict. Scarcity of funds has pitted neighborhoods and races against each other, as each vies for funding. Harvey united us in our resolve to finally do something about flooding. But recovery has torn us apart.
Historical Unwillingness to Fund Flood Mitigation at Meaningful Levels
Until Harvey, we have consistently underfunded flood mitigation efforts at the State, county and local levels. Unless we’re dealing with a flood disaster, it seems we have more pressing issues. Even after Harvey, we are now spending more money on bike trails in Harris County than on flood mitigation in the Lake Houston Area.
Harris County Flood Control’s budget before Harvey was so small that the District often had to save up multiple years to build one detention pond.
During the 2011 drought, State Representative Dan Huberty went to City of Houston Mayor Annise Parker. Lake Houston was so far down, the West Fork was a trickle between Humble and Kingwood. Huberty suggested that that would be a great time to get sediment buildups out of the river. You could have done it with trucks, restored the river’s conveyance, protected people from flooding and avoided water quality issues associated with dredging in our water supply. Parker declined.
So why do we flood? It’s not just the rainfall. Many of our wounds are self inflicted.
Future Posts in Harvey-Anniversary Series
My next post in this series will focus on a Harvey-Mitigation 5-Year Report Card. Another will focus on why some Harvey survivors still experience PTSD, and how it could affect them well into their seventies.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/22
1822 days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/20210520-RJR_6978.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2022-08-25 19:21:162022-08-26 09:55:48Why Do We Flood?
In their 8/23/22 meeting, Harris County Commissioners discussed proposed budget priorities for the next fiscal year. Dr. Tina Petersen, PhD, PE, Harris County Flood Control District’s Executive Director, presented her goals for next year. And once again, they revolved around “equity.” See page 64 of the proposed budget for Petersen’s priorities or the summary below. The inequities of the “equity plan” are getting too hard to ignore.
Goal
Petersen wants to “reduce flood risk and strengthen resiliency.” Not much to quibble with there!
However, she also described how she wants to do it: “…through … equitable … strategies.”
The emphasis on “equitable” raises concerns about when HCFCD will start addressing the needs of the Lake Houston Area.
The outcomes associated with reducing flood risk? Harris County is targeting year-over-year reduction in the number of structures susceptible to damage from a 1% ATLAS 14 event. HCFCD also wants to reduce the number of structures susceptible to flooding in any flood. Both of those are admirable outcomes.
Having been burned once, though, I wish they would take it two steps further. Tell me: a) how many structures and b) where they are. Their wording leaves things too open ended and generic for my taste. The district could save a handful of homes and declare victory.
To achieve the not-so-specific outcomes articulated, the District wants to increase its budget for:
Sediment removal by $5 million, due to inflationary costs totaling 35%
Maintenance by $790,000, due to increased contract and material costs.
Mowing by $760,000, due to increased contract costs.
Building costs, professional services, and money paid to other departments, such as IT, by $1.7 million due to inflation.
Desired Outcome #2
Petersen also wants to: “invest in flood control equitably, where the most people are at risk of flooding.” I read that as, “Not the most people with the most risk; just the most people with any risk.”
Her strategy: “…increase alignment of flood control investment to areas of greatest need.” What does she mean by “greatest need”?
The deepest flooding?
The most damage to infrastructure?
The highest frequency of flooding?
Schools, grocery stores, and hospitals underwater?
Loss of critical bridges that cut off whole communities?
The southbound lanes of the I-69 bridge were knocked out by Harvey for approximately a year, causing massive delays and detours.Harvey flooding forced Humble ISD to close Kingwood High School for almost a year and bus 4000 students elsewhere.Chart showing feet above flood stage at 33 gages. Highest flooding was at 59 between Humble and Kingwood on the West Fork.
Thus, the money would go to the most densely populated areas, not necessarily those that suffered the most or worst damage. And the “revised prioritization framework” emphasizes the social vulnerability index (SVI). Ooops. There’s the “tell” again.
At least she’s telling you what you need to know when you go to the polls this fall. If you live in the Lake Houston Area, I wouldn’t count on seeing any benefit from the flood bond next year. Or the Flood Resilience Trust. The Trust contains money diverted from tollroads. That will now likely go to fix neighborhood drainage long ignored by Precincts One and Two, and the City..
Blocked street drainage in Kashmere and Trinity Garden subdivisions.
Commissioners discussed the budget for 90 minutes Tuesday. A vote on it will come in September. More to follow before then.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/23/22
1820 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/KHS-e1702338318946.jpg?fit=1100%2C616&ssl=16161100adminadmin2022-08-23 21:59:122022-08-24 10:41:55Flood Control Lists Budget Priorities for Fiscal ’23
Last week, I posted about the possibility of heavy rain early this week. Last night, Dallas experienced torrential rains and they’re headed this way. One amateur weather gage on Londonderry Lane reported more than 14″ of rain! Dallas/Fort Worth officially received 9.46 inches of rainfall in 6 hours and 7.8 inches in 3-hours. Significant flash flooding has resulted. A 1-hour storm total of 3.01 inches was recorded at DFW with a storm total of 6.54 inches. That wiped out 67% of the area’s 2022 rainfall deficit in a few hours.
National Weather Service map as of 12:41 pm Houston time. Purple boxes represent flash flood warnings. Bright green = Flood warnings. Dark green = flood watch.
Threat Will Increase From North to South During Next 24 Hours
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the frontal boundary over north Texas will slowly move southward today and approach the northern portions of southeast Texas by mid- to late afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary along with scattered showers developing northward along the seabreeze and Gulf inflow.
The air mass will become extremely moist and unstable. When combined with slow moving/stalled boundaries, excessive rainfall can result. Lindner says areas north of HWY 105 have the first potential for heavy rainfall in early afternoon. Then the front will slowly sink southward toward I-10 tonight into early Tuesday. Expect slow storm motions, cell training, and back-building of cells to the west and northwest. Everything points to heavy rainfall.
While grounds are dry, the local air mass will be capable of some impressive short duration rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches in an hour.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
This was clearly seen overnight in north Texas. The local air mass will not be much different over southeast Texas. Especially N of I-10. These rainfall rates can lead to rapid flash flooding especially in urban areas.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected over much of southeast Texas through mid week. But Lindner also expects isolated higher totals of 6+ inches. And where these higher totals occur, flash flooding will be possible, he says.
Confidence in rainfall is high. But confidence in rainfall amounts and location of the heaviest rainfall is low.
Street flooding will be the primary threat with the heavy rainfall rates. Rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible if some of the heavier storms train or move slowly over any watershed.
Overall, this wet pattern will linger into late week. But a slightly drier air mass will eventually push through and we should transition back toward a more “normal” cycle of showers and thunderstorms driven mostly by the seabreeze front.
See the National Weather Services predictions below.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/22 based on information from HCFCD and NWS
In the Tuesday 8/23/22 Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will deliver the results of a study on the Greens Bayou mid-reach area. The study shows that when the Aldine-Westfield Phase 2 and Lauder Phase 2 Basins are complete, the area will be protected from a 10-year flood (10% annual chance). But the study doesn’t stop there. It also recommends building another large detention basin and increasing channel conveyance to protect the area in a 25-year flood (4% annual chance).
10-Year Protection Achieved
Back in 2003, HCFCD started working on a plan to bring much needed flood reduction to the area between Veterans Memorial and JFK along Greens. That stretch covers 11 miles of Harris County Precincts 1 and 2.
Locations of improvements along Greens Bayou.Red is proposed.
Also since 2003, NOAA has developed new Atlas-14 rainfall probability estimates.
Atlas 14 rainfall probabilities for northern Harris County
The new estimates show that northern Harris County could experience 30-40% more rain than previously estimated in major events. With both rainfall and detention basin capacity increasing, the question became, “Where do things stand?”
This new engineering study shows that the four existing detention basins (Kuykendahl, Glen Forest, Aldine-Westfield and Lauder) should protect homes and businesses in a 10-year flood. But achieving greater protection will require something more.
Four Alternatives to Increase Capacity
Engineers looked at four different alternative combinations of stormwater detention capacity and/or channel conveyance improvements to provide more protection. Each alternative involved the proposed Hardy Stormwater Detention Basin shown in red on the map above.
Alternative 1 – Building a 3,000 acre-foot basin
Alternative 2 – Smaller 2,000 acre-foot basin with more room for recreation
Alternative 3 – Same as #2 but also with channel conveyance improvements
Alternative 4 – Only conveyance improvements; no additional storage capacity
Alternative 5 – Build nothing else. Stop with existing basins.
The engineers recommended Alternative #3 – given sufficient funding. It would achieve a 25-year system capacity in general. The area immediately downstream of I-45 would achieve closer to a 10-year system capacity. And the area immediately downstream of the Hardy Tollroad would be closer to a 50-year capacity.
The proposed and existing improvements would create enough storage to hold a foot of rain falling across 16.4 square miles!
Cost: A mere $196 million on top of the $126 million already invested in the other four basins. Compared to Alternative 5, #3 would protect another 25 structures in a 10-year flood, 173 in a 50-year, and 239 in a 100-year. HCFCD did not list a number for a 25-year event. But we can assume it’s somewhere south of 173.
Phase 1: 3.6 miles of channel conveyance improvements
Phase 2: 3.5 miles of channel conveyance improvements and 500 acre-feet of stormwater detention
Phase 3: 3.5 miles of channel conveyance improvements and 500 acre-feet of stormwater detention
Phase 4: Final 1,000 acre-feet of stormwater detention
The slide below shows how much the existing and new improvements would shrink the 25-year floodplain. Mentally subtract the purple areas to see before and after.
Purple represents the extent of the floodplain without improvements. Blue shows the extent with improvements.
Three bonds that amount to a $1.2 billion mystery tax will go on the November ballot in Harris County. In a special Harris County Commissioner’s Court meeting on Thursday 8/18/22, three Democrats voted for the bonds in another carefully orchestrated meeting. They did not:
Make the bond language public before (or after) the meeting.
Release even a partial list of projects that the money will go towards.
Address how the bond will be promoted or who will promote it.
Discuss the lopsided distribution of funds ($160 million more for each Democratic precinct).
Define how phrases such as, “worst first” will be defined.
Allow Republican commissioners to ask questions.
Explain why they wanted another bond when approximately half a billion dollars remains from the last one in 2015.
Aside from three-high level categories of spending (public safety, roads and parks), nothing in the bonds says exactly how or where the money will be spent.
Debate Cut Off with Questions Unanswered
After Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia made three motions to approve three separate bonds, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis seconded them. County Judge Lina Hidalgo extolled their benefits and called members of the public who spoke against the bonds liars.
In a carefully stage-managed meeting, Hidalgo insisted the bonds would not raise taxes, but once again blurred the distinction between tax rates and tax bills. Budget Manager Daniel Ramos repeatedly said property valuations were going up. However…
Neither Hidalgo, nor Ramos discussed the combined impact of the rate multiplied by much higher property valuations over 25 years.
Hidalgo has consistently avoided that discussion.
Despite attempts by Republican Commissioners Tom Ramsey and Jack Cagle to ask questions, the Democrats used their majority to invoke a parliamentary procedure known as “calling the question.” Calling the question stops debate (which never started in this case) and calls for an immediate vote on a proposal. The three Democrats voted YES to call the question. The two Republicans voted NO.
Hidalgo then called an immediate vote on the three bond proposals. Each passed 3-2. Hidalgo adjourned the meeting.
Video of Politics at Its Most Brutal
This meeting was a microwave version of most court meetings in the last four years. If you want to get a good feeling for Harris County politics before you vote, I highly recommend watching it. The last public speaker ends at 36:28 and approval of the bond begins. You can view the entire video here. It only lasts another 15-20 minutes.
But first, you may want to watch this 20-second clip posted on YouTube in which Hidalgo brands members of the public who spoke against the bond as liars.
Video clip showing start of discussion after public comments. Compare audio with official transcript below.
In the official transcript, someone redacted the lying comment.
8/20/22screen capture of official transcript. Red type added to indicate text and location of omission.
When Cagle tried to raise these issues, Garcia and Hidalgo cut him off. The three called the question, voted and left the room.
The next meeting of commissioners court will vote on two proposals to promote the bond which have not gone through a competitive bidding process. See items 427 and 428. Sorry, there’s no backup on those either. So much for transparency!
No one except Garcia, Ellis and Hidalgo know why we need the bonds, where the money will go, or who will get the benefit. That’s why I call this bond a mystery tax.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/22
1817 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/20220820-Screen-Shot-2022-08-20-at-5.30.01-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C617&ssl=16171200adminadmin2022-08-20 18:20:222022-08-20 19:48:42Garcia’s $1.2 Billion Mystery Tax Going on November 8th Ballot
As of 7 pm CDT on 8/19/22, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave a tropical disturbance in the Gulf an 80% chance of turning into a named storm today or tomorrow. They call this area of investigation “99L.” Two days ago, the NHC gave this only a 10% chance of developing. But it survived going over the rugged terrain of Central America and is now out over water again where conditions are favorable for development.
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms are getting better organized. Deep thunderstorms have developed near/over this low pressure center.
Satellite photo taken at noon Houston time on 8/18/22.
According to NHC, environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico as early as today. However, by Saturday night, NHC predicts the system will move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development.
Conditions that support continued development include light wind shear, a large plume of moisture and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to southern Texas over the weekend.
More Rain for Houston Expected
In the northern hemisphere, low-pressure systems like this one rotate counterclockwise. So as the system heads toward Brownsville, it will spin moisture up along the Texas Gulf coast. That’s part of the reason why our rain chances for the next few days will remain high.
From Weather Live as of 12:40pm, 8/18/22.
As moisture from 99L spreads northward, it will interact with an incoming frontal boundary from the north and northwest early next week. That will also enhance rainfall chances.
Areas where Precipitable Water in atmosphere exceeds 1.5″. Precipitable waters are defined as the amount of water vapor in a column of air.Source: NWS Storm Prediction Center.
As of 6:34 pm Houston time, NHC has increased the chances of formation to 80% and has started referring to the storm in the Gulf as “potential tropical cyclone #4.” Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon did not find closed circulation. The plane did find an area of 25-30kt winds well to the northeast of the weak wind field near the active thunderstorms. The system is morning NW at around 15mph. Lindner expects the storm to make landfall as a 45 mph tropical storm tomorrow evening near the Rio Grande.
For more information, including the expected arrival time of tropical storm force winds, warning cones, and wind-speed probabilities, click here.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/two_atl_5d0-2.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2022-08-19 13:26:202022-08-19 18:59:39Chances of Tropical Formation for 99L Increase to 80%
Most people think of Kingwood’s East End Park as a place to commune with nature. But it began as a natural, low-cost form of flood mitigation.
When Friendswood was building Kingwood, it toyed with the idea of building homes where the park now stands. Instead, it bequeathed the land to the Kingwood Service Association (KSA). KSA now maintains the property as a nature park for the benefit of all Kingwood residents. Leaving it natural also helps protect people from flooding.
Sometimes the best way to deal with the side effects of development is simply to preserve nature where flooding occurs most frequently. And it certainly occurs frequently along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. In areas like these, parks provide a buffer. And that creates positive value while avoiding negative costs.
How Parks Create Positive Value
The main features offered in the 158-acre East End Park are tranquil, yet breathtaking views provided free of charge by Mother Nature. The park includes forests, wetlands, and natural meadows that provide food and habitat for wildlife. People often see families of deer munching on grass at the edge of the forests. Occasionally, visitors sight eagles, alligators, river otters, foxes, coyotes and bobcats.
KSA East End Park Poster. Photos by Bob Rehak.
Birders also find the park an urban wonderland. Forty-plus acres of tall grass meadows draw approximately 140 species of birds during the spring and fall migrations. Many of those are threatened or endangered. The Lake Houston Area Nature Club hosts birding tours here from September to May. They start at 7:30 AM from the parking lot at the east end of Kingwood Drive and usually last till about 10am.
Another major attraction of the park: spectacular sunrises most mornings.
East End Park at Sunrise by Dr. Charles Campbell.
Dr. Charles Campbell hikes several miles in the park each morning. He took the picture above not far from the main entrance at the east end of Kingwood Drive. He also took the one below at Otter Point.
Sunrise over Lake Houston from Kingwood’s East End Park at Otter Point. By Dr. Charles Campbell.
The park draws an estimated 100,000 visitors per year, but it rarely seems crowded because the visitors disperse among dense forests along 5+ miles of trails throughout the day.
East End Park is an exceptional amenity for Kingwood residents, gifted to all by a visionary developer. Was it totally selfless? Of course not. Nationally, research shows that proximity to parks can increase home values up to 20%. In short, people like parks.
Also Consider Cost Avoidance of Preservation
During Harvey, the entire park went underwater. Most of it also went underwater during the Tax Day, Memorial Day, and Imelda storms. Can you imagine what would have happened had Friendswood built homes here?
There would have been tens of millions of dollars in damages, losses to taxpayer-subsidized flood insurance, disaster relief funds, and the overhead of a bureaucracy to administer aid. Buyouts and demolition would have been required. Flood mitigation in the form of channels and detention basins would have cost tens of millions more. And all the positive values would have been lost.
But by just leaving it natural, we collectively saved all those personal and public expenses. We also created a beautiful “people magnet” that sustains home values instead of undermining them. Trail repair costs after Harvey totaled only $60,000.
That’s less than the cost to repair one average home flooded to a depth of a foot or more. And that’s the value of preservation – the natural, low-cost form of flood mitigation.
Sometimes we need to learn to just let nature be.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/18/22 with thanks to Dr. Charles Campbell
1815 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Campbell-East-End-Park-Sunrise.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=16751200adminadmin2022-08-18 12:02:092022-08-18 14:41:05Preservation: A Natural, Low-Cost Form of Flood Mitigation
