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How to Understand New Draft Floodplain Maps

5/28/27 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) is sponsoring a series of virtual information sessions about the recently released draft floodplain maps for Harris County.

If you’ve wondered what the updated draft maps show for your home or neighborhood, these sessions will help you understand where to look and how to interpret what you find.

*New Draft Flood Map for Lake Houston Area*

What Sessions Will Cover and When

The sessions will cover:

What floodplain maps are and why they’re being updated
What’s changing in the new draft maps that FEMA is now reviewing
How to use the online Navigator tool to find your property
What happens next and how you can stay involved

It’s important to note at this time that these are draft maps and do not yet have regulatory or insurance impacts.

Four more sessions remain:

May 29, 2026
12:00 PM
Click to Register

June 8, 2026
12:00 PM
Click to Register

June 23, 2026
4:30 PM
Click to Register

July 1, 2026
12:00 PM
Click to Register

For General Public

HCFCD designed these sessions for the general public. You need no prior knowledge. Whether you own a home, rent, run a business, or simply want to learn more about flood risk, these sessions represent a quick, easy way to learn more.

If you are unable to attend, materials and resources will be made available after the meeting.

Approval Stages

The maps will go through several stages before they become the effective regulatory maps.

Draft – (Where we are now)
Draft maps are shared with FEMA, local jurisdictions and technical partners to identify issues or mapping discrepancies. Draft maps are provided for awareness only and are not open for formal comments or appeals.

Preliminary (Public Review) – Proposed maps for public input
Once FEMA releases the maps for public review, residents can submit comments and formal appeals. During this period, the maps are still not yet effective for regulatory or insurance use.

Final (Effective) – Official regulatory maps
After the review and protest process, FEMA incorporates all approved changes. Then it issues the final, effective maps. These become the official versions used for insurance, permitting, and development.

The entire process may take several more years. The purpose of releasing draft maps is to help you better understand your flood risk.

Why Maps Needed Updating

The old maps developed after Tropical Storm Allison show significantly less risk. Since 2000, the Houston area’s population has grown 68%. The region is now approaching 8 million residents and is one of the fastest-growing major metros in America.

Downtown Houston — *Looking south toward downtown along US59 across Beltway 8.*

That means a lot more impervious cover. Much more runoff. And faster, higher flood peaks. During Hurricane Harvey, of the 154,170 homes that flooded in Harris County alone, 105,340 or 68% were outside the 1% (100-yr) floodplain. So, you can easily see why the maps needed updating.

The time to learn about them is now. Hurricane season starts in days. But it’s still not too late to buy flood insurance.

Learn more about this new map program at www.hcfcd.org/MAAPnext.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/26

3194 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Gulf Water Temps Near Record Highs with Hurricane Season Just Days Away

5/27/26 – Based on sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), weather forecasters are already talking about the possibility of an early season tropical storm in the Gulf. NOAA’s SST Anomalies page shows that as of yesterday, Gulf water temps were already well above normal and near record highs set in 2024.

Such SSTs help form tropical systems by warming the air and making it rise. Hurricane forecasters note that a significant lack of hurricane activity in 2025 left the region with an abundance of hot water that was not “churned up” or cooled by major storms.

Although NOAA predicts a below-normal Atlantic season with eight to 14 named storms, the near-record heat in the Gulf—averaging 2.5 degrees warmer than normal—remains a significant “wild card” for storm intensity.

Conflicting Trends

The other major factor influencing tropical forecasts this year is the growing El Niño.

El Niño tends to suppress tropical storm formation in the Atlantic by creating wind sheer that tears apart tropical storms before they intensify.

However…

Early season storms – even during El Niño years – can and do create widespread damage.

Consider these “A” storms:

Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (Cat 5) ranks as the 9th most costly storm
Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 ranks # 23 on NOAA’s list of all-time costliest storms.
Hurricane Agnes in 1972 (Cat 1) ranks as the 22nd most costly storm
Hurricane Alicia in 1983 (Cat 3) ranks as the 33rd most costly storm.

A story by Dinah Voyles Pulvery in today’s USA Today titled “Hurricane forecasters fear supercharged, early-season storms in 2026″ contained almost two dozen terrifying pictures from Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center told USA Today that El Niño has the biggest impacts on Atlantic hurricanes that form deep in the tropics. But in the Gulf, there may be more favorable pockets for storms to form.

Three of the four storms above happened during El Niño years.

1983 was a major El Niño year – one of the strongest of the 20th century. Forecasters considered it unprecedented at the time.
1972 was one of the more significant 20th-century El Niño events prior to the very large 1982–83 event.
An El Niño that developed in 1991 persisted through much of 1992.

2001 had neutral conditions. El Niño did not develop until 2002.

Don’t Underestimate Potential for Rapid Intensification

Just hours ago, AccuWeather warned that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are already running near the threshold for tropical development.

And according to Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, people often think hurricanes will give them more lead time than they actually do. But that’s not usually true. Graham told USA Today. “Every Category 5 that’s made landfall in this country was a tropical storm or less at three days out.”

For hurricane preparation tips, consult the Preparation Tab on my Links Page. Hurricane season officially starts in five more days. Also…

Save the Date: Flickinger to Host Preparedness Open House

On Thursday, June 4, from 5-6:30 PM, Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger will host an open house at Kingwood Community Center (4102 Rustic Woods Drive, Kingwood TX 77345) with:

Houston Office of Emergency Management
CenterPoint Energy
Comcast
xfinity
UnionPacific
Trees for Houston

According to the Council Member, the event will feature practical safety information about resources designed to help you, your family and your neighborhood prepare with confidence, such as:

Safe vegetation practices and the Right Tree, Right Place approach
When and why to call 811 before you dig
How to stay safe around railways and utility equipment
Hurricane preparedness tips and local resources

Flickinger said, “Ask questions, explore helpful information and share what matters most in your neighborhood so we can better support the community we serve.”

One of the first things people often lose in Kingwood is power when trees fall against overhead lines. And with the loss of power comes loss of communication. So it’s important to have a plan before that happens.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/27/2026

3193 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Alex Mealer Defeats State Rep. Cain in GOP Primary Runoff for New CD-9

Update 5/27/26 – With 100% of voting locations reporting, Mealer beat Cain by more than a 2:1 margin.

5/26/26 – According to multiple news reports, Alexandra Mealer beat State Representative Briscoe Cain in a landslide tonight in the GOP primary runoff election for the newly redrawn Texas Congressional District 9. CD9 runs from the Ship Channel, Deer Park, Pasadena, and Baytown up the east side of Houston all the way to Liberty County. It even takes in the Lake Houston Dam.

From West Point to Afgan to Harvard to CD9

I first met Mealer in 2022 when she ran for Harris County Judge. However, she narrowly lost to Lina Hidalgo then. We reconnected in late 2025/early 2026 when she announced her candidacy for CD9.

I have nothing but admiration for Mealer. I endorsed her in both races. For those who have not met her in person, she is a force of nature, gifted with a keen intellect and seemingly inexhaustible supplies of energy.

Mealer graduated from West Point, then completed advanced training at the Naval Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) school. As a young lieutenant, the Army selected her ahead of her peers to form a new EOD company for a planned surge in Afghanistan. She prepared her team in half the time usually required by the Army then deployed to a forward operating base in Afghanistan.

While there, Mealer was again selected ahead of her peers to lead the EOD Headquarters Company, consisting of 600+ personnel deployed to 40+ locations throughout Afghanistan. For her 14-month deployment, Mealer was awarded the Combat Action Badge and Bronze Star Medal.

After honorably completing military service, Mealer obtained an MBA from Harvard Business School and a JD degree from Harvard Law School. She then went on to leverage her degrees as an oil & gas investment banker in Houston. She specialized in capital markets and merger/acquisition consulting in the oilfield services sector.

Mealer is also a wife, mother and business owner when she isn’t running for Congress.

Mealer Always Looking Forward

Within one day of her 2022 loss in the county judge race, Mealer began crafting legislation that would have expanded the geographic scope of the Harris County Flood Control District. Here is a white paper that Mealer wrote on the subject.

Even though Kingwood is not technically part of CD9, she is extremely familiar with flooding issues here and throughout the region.

Alex Mealer endorsement — *Mealer in 2025 learning about Kingwood Town Center flooding issues along Bens Branch on a rainy day.*

According to unofficial election results reported in The Texan, New York Times, and Fox News, Mealer held 69 percent of the voting returns reported early Tuesday evening. So, congratulations, Alex Mealer!

Is her win a big deal? Absolutely. It’s crucial for the success of the region. If CD9 were a country, it would have approximately the 20^th largest economy in the world, according to Mealer.

Mealer will face Democrat Leticia Gutierrez in the November election. But the new CD9 reportedly leans heavily to the R side now. So Mealer is expected to have a strong advantage in November.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/26/26

3192 Days since Hurricane Harvey

What’s Wrong with This Picture?

5/24/26 – What’s wrong with this picture? It shows the confluence of Spring Creek (l) and the San Jacinto West Fork (r).

Confluence Spring Creek and West Fork after heavy rains — *Confluence of Spring Creek (l) and West Fork on 5/24/26 after several rounds of heavy rain in previous 3 days.*

I took it at approximately 3PM today. It has not been retouched. You are looking at the actual color difference in the water coming down the two streams after several days of rain.

However, the heavy rains were almost equally distributed between the two watersheds according to the Harris County Flood Warning System. So, what accounts for the difference? This is important. After all, that’s the drinking water for more than two million people you’re looking at.

20 Square Miles of Sand Mines in a 20 Mile Reach of the River

A quick look at Google Earth Pro will show a huge difference. There is very little (if any) sand mining upstream on the left, but approximately 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20 mile reach of the river upstream on the right.

And in several mines, the West Fork runs right through active or abandoned sand pits, a phenomenon known as “pit capture.”

So, I drove upstream to learn more. Here’s what I saw.

Hallett Mine after heavy rains with ponds down — *Water flowing out of a former Hallett pit now owned by Riverwalk Porter LLC*. *The West Fork enters the pit out of frame to the right.* *See next shot.*

Farther upstream, but still at the Hallett mine…

Another source of sediment from the mine is repairs to its dikes. A local fisherman supplied me with this photo taken today. It shows how repairs to a dike near the processing plant are slumping into the river. I originally posted about the repairs several months ago.

*Photo taken on 5/24/26 near Hallett processing equipment.*

Here’s what that area looks like from the air.

Externalizing Operational Costs to Taxpayers

The sand-mining industry in Montgomery County helps power growth there. The bulk of the mines are located close to the Harris County line. So Montgomery County gets the benefit. And Harris County gets the cleanup costs in the form of dredging, water treatment, and medical bills.

TCEQ monitors this mine for Nitrate + Nitrite N, total suspended solids, pH, and hazardous metals including Arsenic, Barium, Cadmium, Chromium, Copper, Lead, Manganese, Mercury, Nickel, Selenium, Silver, and Zinc.
TCEQ Report

Ask your favorite AI program what the health risks of exposure to those chemicals are.

This is what economists call an “externality.” The full cost of providing the sand is not reflected in the bills that purchasers receive. Miners pass their clean up costs on to taxpayers downstream in order to provide an artificially low cost to the actual consumers.

And in my opinion, that’s what’s wrong with the picture.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/2026

3190 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Northpark Surface Lanes across UPRR Tracks Virtually Complete

5/23/26 – Earlier this week, contractors for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 finished paving the surface lanes across the UnionPacific Railroad (UPRR) tracks. Two surface lanes both east- and westbound will border the bridge being built over the tracks and Loop 494. They will provide turning capabilities at the intersection as well as access to local businesses.

Northpark Expansion — *Note fresh pavement in lower right.*

All that remains to be paved is a narrow strip just a few feet wide adjacent to the tracks (see above). The strips will be paved after crossing gates and traffic signals are installed and coordinated with other railroad crossings up and down the tracks.

That means the only unpaved section of roadway in Phase I (not counting the bridge) is a tiny section in front of the dry cleaners on the west side of Loop 494 (see below). Light poles were finally cleared out of there this week and paving was scheduled for today. However, heavy rains disrupted that.

Elsewhere along Phase I:

Work continues on excavating and lining the entry ponds that bracket Northpark at US59
Contractors are busy installing light poles
New traffic control signal control box at Russell Palmer has been installed and should be operational soon
Work on Loop 494 appears complete

The last major item, construction of the bridge, will pick back up when the new surface lanes become operational and traffic can be moved out of the center lanes.

See pictures below.

Photos Taken May 16-23

*New temporary traffic signal being installed in rain on morning of 5/20/26 at Northpark/Loop 494.*

Four traffic officers kept traffic moving smoothly during the change of signals.

The concrete junction boxes staged lower center/right of the image above will connect drainage across Northpark under the old roadway once traffic switches from the center to the new feeder roads.

Street Light Installation

Street light foundations usually consist of an 8’ deep concrete column. Contractors use an auger to bore the hole. Then they install rebar and pour concrete. The process goes quickly.

However, due to right-of-way constraints, Northpark has six locations where storm water laterals run approximately four feet below grade behind the curb. So, typical street light foundations won’t have enough clearance. Instead, they use “spread-foot foundations” at those locations.

Spread-foot foundations run parallel to grade, horizontally instead of vertically. If you look at the image below, you will see most of the foundation will be underneath the adjacent sidewalk.

Northpark expansion light pole foundation — *In parts of the City that experience frequent inundation, such foundations are common because they can resist the forces of floodwater pushing against them.*

Majority of the street light foundations on Allen Parkway and Memorial Drive between Bagby and Shepherd Drive are spread foot.

A Look Ahead at Bridge Construction

I asked Project Manage Ralph De Leon when he expected bridge construction to pick back up. He replied, “As soon as the feeder roads are open +/- June 23^rd. Ford, Knox, Royal Crossing and Northpark are interconnected. All four intersections have been updated, and the testing is currently underway. All four have to be operational before UPRR will let us open the Northpark feeder roads.”

For More Information

For more information, search this website using the key word “Northpark,” visit the project pages at LakeHoustonRA.com. Or consult this 3-week lookahead schedule.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/26

3189 Days since Hurricane Harvey

TWDB Awarding $312 Million for Flood Infrastructure Projects

5/22/2026 – The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) is kicking off another round of funding for Flood Infrastructure Projects. $312 million is available for the 2026-2027 cycle.

Who Can Apply for What

Texas Cities, Counties and Districts/Authorities are eligible to apply for grants or 0%-interest loans. Four types of projects qualify:

Flood Management Evaluations (Planning studies)
Flood Mitigation Projects (Construction or rehabilitation of drainage infrastructure)
Flood Management Strategies (Projects that don’t fit within the first two categories, such as warning systems, stream gages, crossing barriers, public education, buyouts, etc.)
Federal Matching Grants (Funds for a portion of required federal matches associated with projects in one of the three categories above).

The New Plan for How Money Will Be Distributed

TWDB has published an “Intended Use Plan” describing how the money will be allocated. It includes a detailed scoring matrix for prioritizing projects. The Board will accept public comments on the plan and the matrix until Friday, June 12, 2026 at 11:59PM CDT.

Application for funding happens in two stages to make things easier. Applicants submit an abridged application for prioritizing proposed projects. The highest ranking projects will then be invited to submit full applications.

This year’s Intended Use Plan makes nine key changes compared to previous years.

Removal of the Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) from the Minimum Requirements section.
FME projects are not subject to the notice requirement.
Water conveyance projects have additional coordination and planning requirements.
To ensure financial assistance is distributed more broadly, no single entity will be able to receive financial assistance for more than two abridged application requests within a single project category. The only exceptions: (1) federal match projects, and (2) funds remain.
Projects will be prioritized into the four categories listed above
Removal of predetermined funding goals per category.
TWDB will invite at least one project from each regional flood planning group within each category, as funding permits.
Funding caps will apply to grants, loans, and in-kind funding terms within each category.
Grant qualifiers and grant percentage offerings were changed.

For More Information

See the full 23-page Draft Intended Use Plan for all the details.

Also see the new prioritization index for planning cycle and how to submit a Public Comment.

Finally this TWDB page contains information regarding everything having to do with the Texas Flood Infrastructure Fund. It includes examples of previously submitted/approved projects, a project dashboard, instructions on how to apply for grants and much more.

To date, TWDB has committed more than $832 million to Texas flood infrastructure projects.

Local Project Now in Construction

A key to the success of projects within the San Jacinto River Basin is working with the San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group. Timothy E. Buscha is currently the chair. Buscha said recently, “What we’re hoping for is a more streamlined way to get money to the projects that need it most.” And the first step? “We’re trying to get people to get a project into the system so that they’re eligible.”

Eventually that money works its way back down to communities where it can do some good. For instance, the Taylor Gully project, which just started construction in Kingwood, is a beneficiary of more than $10 million of Flood Infrastructure Funding, according to the TWDB dashboard.

Woodridge Village Construction on Day 2 — *Woodridge Village construction restarted this week!*

Like most large infrastructure projects, funding came from a number of sources. In this case, it came from TWDB, the 2018 Bond Program, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Texas General Land Office, and the EPA. Congressman Dan Crenshaw was instrumental in securing the funding from HUD and EPA.

So, don’t sit back and wait for projects to come to you. Advocate for them. Get with your local officials while the getting is good.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/22/2026

3188 Days since Hurricane Harvey

NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

5/21/2026 – Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service predict a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin for 2026. The Atlantic season runs June 1 to November 30. NOAA predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency predicts a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, it forecasts 3-6 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). That includes 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).

An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. If the 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season ends up below-normal, it would mark only the second season in the last decade without above-normal activity. Since the current Atlantic high-activity era began in 1995, 22 of 31 (about 70%) seasons have had above-normal activity. Only 5 (17%) and 4 (14%) have had near- and below-normal activity, respectively. That’s based on the 1951-2020 climatology.

Also, 10 (almost half) of the above-normal years (thus 32% of the 31 years) have been hyperactive (ACE of 165% of median).

Key Factors Driving NOAA’s Forecast

NOAA based its below-normal predictions on competing factors.

El Niño should develop and intensify during the hurricane season. This creates wind shear in the Atlantic which discourages hurricane formation.
Atlantic ocean temperatures should range slightly warmer than normal
Trade winds will likely be weaker than average.

El Niño conditions tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now.”

“It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham

Below are the storm names for 2026.

Not a Landfall Forecast

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land. That is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns. This is not a landfall forecast.

Importance of Preparation

“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information,” added Graham.

New, Enhanced Communication Products This Season

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) will implement an improved version of the tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic that will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
NHC will begin testing an experimental version of the tropical cyclone track forecast cone that will capture a greater range of possibilities for the track of the storm by incorporating uncertainties for both direction of movement and timing.

Advancements to Hurricane Analysis and Forecasts

Advances are not just in communication:

NOAA, in collaboration with the Unified Forecast System community, is testing an experimental high-resolution Seasonal Forecast System that utilizes the latest modeling technology and new methods to assess the evolution of the global ocean-atmosphere system. The system is helping forecasters better simulate tropical storms and hurricanes, and more effectively predict the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes.
NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is using machine learning to quality-control data collected from tail Doppler radar — a specialized radar system mounted on the back of NOAA’s “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft. This new method gathers more than 25% more meteorological data than the current method and leads to more high-quality data to support structure and wind analysis by forecasters.

New, Innovative Forecasting Technologies

NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction high-resolution Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) services provide emergency managers visualizations of those streets and neighborhoods likely to go underwater. FIM covers 60% of the U.S. population and will expand to nearly 100% by late September 2026.
For the first time, data from small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) will be integrated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model during the 2026 hurricane season. Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) determined that incorporating sUAS data into NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) can improve hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 10%.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center launched the experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard, a customizable, real-time tool that shows the probability of extreme rainfall a week in advance for more than 60 U.S. cities.

The 2026 Atlantic seasonal outlook will be updated in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the season, which typically extends from mid-September through October.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2026 based on information from NOAA and NWS

3187 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flood Threats Increasing with Rainfall Predictions

5/20/2026 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, heavy rainfall will continue this week. “Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals…much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday,” he said. “That’s on top of 1-3 inches that fell overnight. “Concern remains high for short-term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid-onset flash flooding.” As a result…

“Flash flood and river flood threats will be increasing with time.”
Jeff Lindner

National Weather Service expects total rainfall accumulations to reach 6-8 inches in the next week.

For more details, see below.

Active Weather Pattern Will Continue into Weekend

Earlier forecasts suggested a total of 3-5 inches in coming days. But that has increased. Most of Harris County received 2-3 inches in the last 24 hours alone. See below.

*Gage totals from Harris County Flood Warning System* from noon to noon, 5/19/26-5/20/26.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely, according to Lindner.

Latest rounds of storms moved off the coast this morning. Expect a mostly uneventful day with respect to any additional storms. However, this evening another strong disturbance will come out of west Texas and northern Mexico. It will likely produce another complex of thunderstorms. High resolution models suggest a line of storms will form over that part of Texas and move eastward tonight into Thursday morning.

Some models predict the complex of storms will hold together into southeast Texas early Thursday. But other suggest they will weaken before reaching here.

Generally, this activity looks progressive. It will likely bring another 1-2 inches of rainfall. Once it moves through, another break will be possible for much of Thursday. But that will depend on the morning complex of storms pushing through the region and stabilizing the air mass. If not, thunderstorms could develop with heating on Thursday. The NWS Weather Prediction Center shows a level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall and flash flood threat for Thursday for the entire region.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. But confidence in the forecast is low beyond 36 hours. So monitor forecasts late Thursday into Friday morning for approaching disturbances.

Heavy Rainfall Threat Increasing For Weekend

Models indicate more concentrated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may occur this weekend as a trough over the southwest shift slowly towards west Texas. It is unclear exactly how things will play out into the weekend, but it generally looks wet and the heavy rainfall threat will remain. Colorado State University predicts a heavy rainfall threat for both Saturday and Sunday.

Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals. Much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday. Concern remains for high short term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid onset flash flooding.

We will need to watch the entire period for any stalling storms or cell training that could quickly result in flash flooding.

Runoff/Flooding

With all the rounds of rainfall, grounds will saturate thoroughly. Run-off will increase into the weekend. A lot of water is going to fall over the next 5-7 days across the region. How quickly that happens will ultimately determine the threat for flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers.

“Rivers and creeks will rise with rounds of storms and may not be able to recede much before the next round – especially this weekend,” says Lindner. The end result: a slow steady rise in water levels.

Additionally, heavy rainfall will also cause more rapid rises on the more urban creeks and bayous. While these channels can effectively move large amounts of run-off in a short period of time, they can become overwhelmed with intense short-term rainfall rates.

Closely monitor all watersheds into the weekend for rises and any more defined flooding concerns. A good source for that in real-time is the Harris County Flood Warning System. Just remember to click on the Inundation button in the left column. You can also sign up for alerts.

Severe Weather Threat Low

Overall, the severe weather threat is low, but not zero. Overnight storms produced wind gusts of 45-55mph (56mph near Surfside Beach) and these complexes of storms tend to produce gusty winds along their leading edge. The severe threat is likely secondary to the increasing flood threat but will need to be monitored.

Lake Lowering

The Coastal Water Authority started lowering Lake Houston yesterday morning to create more storage for floodwater in the lake and reduce flood threats. As of 11:30 today, the lake was down from its normal level by almost a foot.

The SJRA dashboard shows they are not releasing any water from Lake Conroe but that lake is already down about a half foot. Normal is 201 feet.

Keep your eye on the sky and your ear to the weather radio. And with hurricane season officially starting in 11 days, now may be a good time to check the batteries in all your emergency equipment.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 1PM on Wed., May 20, 2026

3186 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Woodridge-Taylor Gully Construction Starts Again

5/19/26 – Contractors working on the Woodridge Village-Taylor Gully Project finally appeared yesterday and started working today. Construction on the site had been paused since November, 2023.

That’s when Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) cancelled an Excavation and Removal Contract with Sprint Sand & Clay to apply for a Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) from the Texas General Land Office and US Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This particular CDBG project falls in the Mitigation Category. That means, HCFCD and the contractors have until March 31, 2028 to finish it – about a year and ten months.

History of Project

All this comes seven years after Perry Homes cleared approximately 270 acres on its Woodridge Village property, and sloped the land toward Taylor Gully … without building the required detention basins. Then the flooding problems started. Taylor Gully flooded up to 600 homes twice in 2019, once on May 7 and once in September during Tropical Storm Imelda.

Harris County and City of Houston bought the property from Perry Homes in 2020. That let Sprint Sand & Clay start excavating a giant detention basin on Woodridge. They removed 156,478 cubic yards of sediment. That brought the total detention on the site up to Atlas-14 requirements, But per HUD requirements, HCFCD had to stop Sprint while it applied for a grant, which Congressman Dan Crenshaw helped secure.

However, work stopped before the basin was finished and it was never connected to the rest of the drainage on the site. See below.

Woodridge village excavation at end of October 2023 — *Woodridge Village in November 2023 when E&R contract ended. Note storm sewer pipe scattered around excavation.*

Sprint removed all that dirt for less than a thousand dollars. The picture above shows how the site looked the day Sprint left. They gave the current contractors a giant head start.

Site Clean Up Started Today

Today, after a hiatus of almost three years, a new contractor started by cleaning up the site. I photographed them breaking up the old storm sewer pipe unearthed by Sprint.

*Woodridge Village on 5/19/2026*. *Note contractors breaking up storm sewers that Perry had installed near detention basin excavation.*

I counted three pieces of construction equipment onsite today: a small bulldozer, an excavator that was breaking up the pipe. And a forklift that ferried pipe to the excavator.

I didn’t see any other equipment on Woodridge or along Taylor Gully.

*Looking upstream along Taylor Gully from West Lake Houston Parkway toward Rustic Elms and Woodridge.*

*Looking downstream toward the end of Taylor Gully.*

What Project Includes

On 10/6/25, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) approved approximately $42 million to construct Taylor Gully Channel Conveyance Improvements and a Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin.

On 3/26/26, the county purchasing agent approved a $29,387,654 bid from Brice Construction & Design, LLC to finish constructing the Woodridge and Taylor Gully flood mitigation projects in Kingwood

*The Woodridge portion of the project (above the county line) includes 421.6 acre feet of additional stormwater detention capacity (See Compartment 1 above).*

Other planned improvements along Taylor Gully include:

13,118 feet of channel conveyance improvements
Placing a concrete channel along the base of it
Replacing the concrete culverts at Rustling Elms with an open-span bridge.

Altogether the plan should reduce the water surface elevation by up to 5 feet and help 24,000 thousand people who live near or commute through the area.

For more information about the project, see this PowerPoint by HCFCD.

It’s great to see this project moving again.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/2026

3185 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Heavy Rains Could Bring Flash and Riverine Flooding This Week

5/17/26 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, a wet and stormy period mid to late week could bring heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and riverine flooding. The wet and stormy pattern will likely last through the Memorial Day weekend.

Weather Pattern

A slow-moving, upper-level trough will blanket the southwest through much of this week into next weekend while both surface Gulf moisture and high-level Pacific moisture stream into the area.

Additionally, a slow-moving frontal boundary will sag into the area mid to late week. Lindner says, “This is a classic mid to late May stormy pattern for Texas.”

The overall pattern looks stormy as early as late Tuesday. Incoming upper-level disturbances will be hard to time. So, while rain chances will remain high into next weekend, there will be periods of stormy weather followed by breaks.

Complexes of thunderstorms from the west and northwest will move into the area from time to time with the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather until late week. When the slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary is nearby or overhead, it will help promote more sustained thunderstorm formation and potential cell training.

Rainfall Predictions

Nearly all of the major global weather models show heavy to excessive rainfall potential. However, it will be difficult to predict precisely where storms will train and how long breaks will be between rounds.

These are all details that will be worked out in the next several days as forecast confidence increases.

Expect widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches from Wednesday through Sunday with isolated totals much higher in areas of cell training of slow moving storms. These totals may increase some over the next few days.

Initially, rainfall will soak into the ground. But repeated rounds of rain and training storms could quickly result in higher runoff rates and flash flooding.

Additionally, the large footprint of the forecasted rainfall will yield rises on area rivers systems. And it is possible that some rivers could approach or exceed flood stage by next weekend.

At this time, Pivotal Weather predicts 4.3 inches for Harris County, 5.1 for Montgomery County, and 6.1 for Walker County. The headwaters for Lake Conroe lie in Walker County and heavy rains there in the past have led to the SJRA opening its flood gates.

For instance, in May 2024, rainfall north of Harris County exceeded 10.0-15.0 inches in many locations. And it exceeded 15.0-20.0 inches on the headwaters of the East Fork and north of Lake Conroe on the West Fork.

Severe Threat

A low daily threat of severe weather (wind and hail) from late Tuesday onward exists. But this threat is conditional on several factors that are hard to determine at this time. Keep your eye on the sky and weather forecasts in coming days. The wet pattern may even linger into next week.

*From NWS Storm Prediction Center for 5/19 and 5/20/26.*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/17/2026

3183 Days since Hurricane Harvey