This morning I visited the National Hurricane Center website to see the latest tropical developments. The Houston Area has nothing to worry about at the moment. But while I was on the NHC website, I stumbled on an incredible resource. It discussed – among other things – the necessary ingredients for a tropical cyclone. It’s called the Mariner’s Tropical Cyclone Guide, updated by Dylan Flynn in May 2023.
A Treasure Trove of Information about Tropical Systems
The title sells this electronic booklet short. It’s true that the last quarter of this 86 page booklet discusses how to navigate ships and boats near tropical cyclones. But the rest is a primer on tropical systems themselves. The booklet has four chapters:
Tropical Cyclone Basics
Climatology
Monitoring Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Cyclone Evasion
Although the book is targeted at Navy and Merchant Marine personnel, the general public will find the first three parts both informative and educational. The writing is clear, crisp, and concise. And the illustrations are illuminating. Overall, a quick read.
One of the most fascinating discussions started on page 12.
Necessary Ingredients for Development and Intensification
Flynn lists seven environmental conditions necessary for tropical cyclones to form and thrive. Eliminate one, says Flynn, and the whole system starts to break down.
A pre-existing surface disturbance with thunderstorms: Tropical cyclones rely on a build-up of heat energy above them to grow and develop. A thunderstorm complex acts as a vertical transport mechanism for heat, moisture, and the cyclonic turning of winds into the upper levels of the atmosphere. This vertical transport helps tropical cyclones develop.
Warm ocean: Tropical cyclones draw on the heat energy stored in the ocean. Sea surface temperatures of at least 80ºF are needed to support development and intensification. Evaporation of this warm water begins the process of energizing the atmospheric column. The warm seas should extend at least 60 m deep, as the strong winds of a tropical cyclone cause a turbulent sea that mixes the warm surface water with cooler, deeper water.
Low vertical wind shear: Tropical cyclones rely on a vertically stacked structure to grow or maintain intensity. The ideal tropical cyclone has its upper-level circulation directly above the low-level circulation. Changes in environmental wind speed or direction with height will tilt the vertical structure. This tilting inhibits growth and may cause the system to decay.
Unstable atmosphere: Rising air is needed to warm the tropical cyclone core, and an unstable atmosphere is necessary to support rising air.
High atmospheric moisture content: Cloud formation is limited if the atmospheric column is too dry. Rising air will cool but struggle to reach the low dew point. The environment is often stable for dry parcels of air but unstable for moist air.
Upper-level outflow: An exhaust mechanism is needed above a system to perpetuate the strong upward motion. This upper-level mass removal causes the pressure at the surface to drop. As a system develops, low-level cyclonic flow pulls mass toward the center. The flow then turns upward as intense vertical motion associated with thunderstorms. This process is known as “the in-up-and-out” circulation. Without a method to dispose of the mass above a tropical cyclone, low-level converging flow toward the center will halt as the system suffocates.
Adequate Coriolis force: Due to the earth’s rotation, the Coriolis force causes tropical cyclones to spin counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This spin is a critical component for development and intensification. Tropical cyclones rarely develop within 5 degrees of the equator, where this force is weakest. See gap in illustration below.
Other Fascinating Discussions
This is just one of dozens of fascinating topics in Flynn’s booklet. Among other things, Flynn discusses:
The exact meaning of terms used by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center. For instance, do you know the difference between a potential tropical cyclone, tropical cyclone and tropical depression? See pages 7-8.
How tropical cyclones dissipate and transition into extratropical storms. Page 14.
The size of the impact area for tropical cyclones. Page 15.
What 50 foot waves look like to a sail drone from inside the eye of hurricane. Page 22.
How dangers differ in different areas around cyclones.
Seasonal variations and the influence of El Niño.
Environmental steering currents for cyclones.
How to interpret NOAA’s technical charts and tables, such as wave heights/intervals, wind forecasts, etc.
The general public and weather enthusiasts will find a boatload of useful information in this booklet, not just the necessary ingredients for a tropical cyclone.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2023
2153 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/20230722-Screenshot-2023-07-22-at-10.33.09-AM-1.jpg?fit=1100%2C754&ssl=17541100adminadmin2023-07-22 11:56:142023-07-22 12:07:53Necessary Ingredients for a Tropical Cyclone
As I drove by Kingwood Middle School this afternoon, sprinklers were sprinkling, grass was growing and the construction equipment was gone. All that remained were two workmen from a landscaping crew packing up their equipment. There may be small jobs yet to do. For instance, will the athletic field have football goal posts?
But I think we can safely move this project into the win column. In three years, it has gone from “distant dream” to “architectural gem” and “community showcase.”
By the start of school in three weeks, Kingwood Middle School should be fully functional – including the athletic fields and new stormwater retention basins that it never had before. See below.
Looking NE from over Pine Terrace.Looking north. The giant “Cougars” emblem on the lobby sun screen is a new addition since my last report. Giant retention basins where main entry used to be should reduce flood risk in neighborhood.
For Photographic History of Project
For photos showing the progress of Kingwood Middle School demolition and re-construction, see below.
An article in the New York Times on July 14 listed insurance companies limiting coverage or pulling out of disaster prone states.
Farmers said it will limit coverage in Florida
Eight smaller insurers have gone bankrupt in Florida in the last two years.
State Farm and Allstate have stopped selling policies in California, and Farmers has limited them there.
Separately, a Washington Post investigation found that some Florida policyholders had their claims cut by more than 80 percent after Hurricane Ian last year. The headline screams, “Insurers slashed Hurricane Ian payouts far below damage estimates…”
Risks Vs. Rewards of Living Near Water
I’ve written before about how the love of living near water can outweigh the fear of consequences that sometimes accompanies it.
If you google “benefits of living near water,” you will quickly find 1.9 billion results. Many of them are from residential developers near rivers, lakes, streams and seashores. They make health and emotional claims such as:
Lowers stress and anxiety
Increases in well-being and happiness
Lowers heart and breathing rates
Healthier lifestyle.
Now google “disadvantages of living near water.” You get half that number of results. They tend to cluster around:
Flood damage
Pollution
Erosion
Increased maintenance and insurance costs
For Most People, Rewards Generally Outweigh Risks
It’s not that people don’t recognize the disadvantages of living near water. It’s just that most enjoy the benefits more. AND they figure that insurance companies will make them whole should disaster strike.
But now, at least in some states, insurance companies seem to be caught in a squeeze between shareholders and regulators. And they’re making some tough calls that will force policy holders to re-evaluate whether the rewards of living near water are worth the risks.
As I scrolled through my library of almost 50,000 flood-related images last week, I wondered how long it might be before Texans experienced the same insurance problems now facing Florida and California residents.
Our love of water, buoyed by the courageous, optimistic spirit of Texans, leads many to take risks that I personally would not take.
Bolivar Peninsula Denser than Before Ike
In that regard, I remember the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike. Ike’s storm surge brought total destruction to 30,000 homes in 2008. See the images below these first three satellite images. The satellite images show the same area before, immediately after, and 15 years later on the Bolivar.
Google Earth image showing residential area on Bolivar Peninsula the week before Ike struck in September 2008.Note large, open undeveloped areas.Same area day after Ike. Total destruction. See ground-level shots below.
The Bolivar today has denser development than it did before Ike. Such is our collective love of water…that we quickly forget or overlook the destruction that happened just 15 years ago. Here’s what it looked like on the ground.
Destruction on Bolivar Peninsula After Hurricane IkeThis was an excellent opportunity to buy people out and turn this area into a national seashore. But that was politically unpalatable.Power not only went down. The entire power infrastructure was taken out.One of the few homes left standing.
We’ve spent the 15 years since Ike studying proposals to build an Ike Dike that could protect such properties. But in June 2023, the Houston Chronicle reported that it could be 2040 before construction completion of the $34 billion project.
Until then, it’s “swim at your own risk.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/18/2023
2149 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Hurricane-Ike-331-Version-3.jpg?fit=1500%2C490&ssl=14901500adminadmin2023-07-18 17:16:552023-07-21 08:44:21Insurance Companies Limit Exposure In Florida, California. Will Texas Be Next?
Necessary Ingredients for a Tropical Cyclone
This morning I visited the National Hurricane Center website to see the latest tropical developments. The Houston Area has nothing to worry about at the moment. But while I was on the NHC website, I stumbled on an incredible resource. It discussed – among other things – the necessary ingredients for a tropical cyclone. It’s called the Mariner’s Tropical Cyclone Guide, updated by Dylan Flynn in May 2023.
A Treasure Trove of Information about Tropical Systems
The title sells this electronic booklet short. It’s true that the last quarter of this 86 page booklet discusses how to navigate ships and boats near tropical cyclones. But the rest is a primer on tropical systems themselves. The booklet has four chapters:
Although the book is targeted at Navy and Merchant Marine personnel, the general public will find the first three parts both informative and educational. The writing is clear, crisp, and concise. And the illustrations are illuminating. Overall, a quick read.
One of the most fascinating discussions started on page 12.
Necessary Ingredients for Development and Intensification
Flynn lists seven environmental conditions necessary for tropical cyclones to form and thrive. Eliminate one, says Flynn, and the whole system starts to break down.
Other Fascinating Discussions
This is just one of dozens of fascinating topics in Flynn’s booklet. Among other things, Flynn discusses:
The general public and weather enthusiasts will find a boatload of useful information in this booklet, not just the necessary ingredients for a tropical cyclone.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2023
2153 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Goal! Kingwood Middle School Reconstruction Reaches Finals
As I drove by Kingwood Middle School this afternoon, sprinklers were sprinkling, grass was growing and the construction equipment was gone. All that remained were two workmen from a landscaping crew packing up their equipment. There may be small jobs yet to do. For instance, will the athletic field have football goal posts?
But I think we can safely move this project into the win column. In three years, it has gone from “distant dream” to “architectural gem” and “community showcase.”
By the start of school in three weeks, Kingwood Middle School should be fully functional – including the athletic fields and new stormwater retention basins that it never had before. See below.
For Photographic History of Project
For photos showing the progress of Kingwood Middle School demolition and re-construction, see below.
Job Well Done
Congratulations to Humble ISD staff, Superintendent Elizabeth Fagan, School Board, and contractors. Job well done!
This is a great example of how new construction can reduce flood risk…when people care.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/20/2023
2151 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Insurance Companies Limit Exposure In Florida, California. Will Texas Be Next?
An article in the New York Times on July 14 listed insurance companies limiting coverage or pulling out of disaster prone states.
Separately, a Washington Post investigation found that some Florida policyholders had their claims cut by more than 80 percent after Hurricane Ian last year. The headline screams, “Insurers slashed Hurricane Ian payouts far below damage estimates…”
Risks Vs. Rewards of Living Near Water
I’ve written before about how the love of living near water can outweigh the fear of consequences that sometimes accompanies it.
If you google “benefits of living near water,” you will quickly find 1.9 billion results. Many of them are from residential developers near rivers, lakes, streams and seashores. They make health and emotional claims such as:
Now google “disadvantages of living near water.” You get half that number of results. They tend to cluster around:
For Most People, Rewards Generally Outweigh Risks
It’s not that people don’t recognize the disadvantages of living near water. It’s just that most enjoy the benefits more. AND they figure that insurance companies will make them whole should disaster strike.
But now, at least in some states, insurance companies seem to be caught in a squeeze between shareholders and regulators. And they’re making some tough calls that will force policy holders to re-evaluate whether the rewards of living near water are worth the risks.
As I scrolled through my library of almost 50,000 flood-related images last week, I wondered how long it might be before Texans experienced the same insurance problems now facing Florida and California residents.
Our love of water, buoyed by the courageous, optimistic spirit of Texans, leads many to take risks that I personally would not take.
Bolivar Peninsula Denser than Before Ike
In that regard, I remember the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike. Ike’s storm surge brought total destruction to 30,000 homes in 2008. See the images below these first three satellite images. The satellite images show the same area before, immediately after, and 15 years later on the Bolivar.
The Bolivar today has denser development than it did before Ike. Such is our collective love of water…that we quickly forget or overlook the destruction that happened just 15 years ago. Here’s what it looked like on the ground.
We’ve spent the 15 years since Ike studying proposals to build an Ike Dike that could protect such properties. But in June 2023, the Houston Chronicle reported that it could be 2040 before construction completion of the $34 billion project.
Until then, it’s “swim at your own risk.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/18/2023
2149 Days since Hurricane Harvey