Recent expansion of the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County means that the controversial colonia is now 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
By advertising exclusively to Hispanics under the name Terrenos Houston (translation: Houston Land), the developer has largely managed to fly under the radar of regulators as it rapidly expands.
Comparison Of Areas in Google Earth
Colony Ridge now occupies approximately 34.5 square miles. The developer also owns additional land in surrounding areas not yet under development or being developed under different names. But I have NOT counted those areas in this comparison.
In contrast, Google Earth shows that the island of Manhattan occupies 22.8 square miles.
That means Colony Ridge is 51% larger than Manhattan. Yet few people have ever heard of Colony Ridge. As proud Texans, we need to change that.
Other Comparisons of Manhattan and Colony Ridge
Population
Of course, Manhattan still has the population edge over Colony Ridge: 1.6 million vs. something less. The exact population of Colony Ridge is unknown because many undocumented aliens live there who avoided the last census.
Commerce
And…
While Manhattan is a center of world commerce, Colony Ridge has a dollar store and an ice machine.
So Colony Ridge has some catching up to do in the “commerce” department.
Car Repair
Many people in Manhattan don’t bother to own cars, so repair places are few and far between.
But people need vehicles to get around in Colony Ridge; there is no public transit. Accordingly, the development has far more shade-tree mechanics.
And the parking is much easier and cheaper in Colony Ridge than Manhattan.
How many people in Manhattan can park 30 cars in their yard while they work on them?
Scenic Rivers
Manhattan is surrounded by iconic rivers. Colony Ridge has rivers of mud. But at least kids can play soccer in them during droughts.
Manhattan is famous for its trash. In fact, trash there has helped decide mayoral elections going back decades. Colony Ridge doesn’t have a mayor, so trash is rarely an issue.
Common sight in Colony Ridge yards.
Advantage Colony Ridge…if you’re a hoarder.
Home Values
Manhattan is also famous for high-priced real estate. Colony Ridge is famous for its low-priced real estate. Advantage: Colony Ridge on that score. No wonder it’s growing so fast!
Tarps are popular roof alternatives in Colony Ridge. They hold down home repair costs.
That’s important. Look at the angle on the left front corner of the home above.
Parking Your Home
Manhattan has absolutely no place to park your home. However, Colony Ridge has thousands of acres. Advantage Colony Ridge…again!
I’d count this one a toss up, however. Why? It still can take hours to get into and out of BOTH Manhattan AND Colony Ridge.
Diversity
Manhattan is widely regarded as a cross-roads of the world and hosts the United Nations.
Colony Ridge IS the united nations…of South America, Central America, and Mexico in Liberty County.
Regardless, I’d have to give the diversity advantage to Manhattan. I don’t see the Colony Ridge developer taking any initiative to reach out to Poles, Jews, Italians, Irish, Asians, Germans, Czechs, Scandinavians, Indians, Africans or other ethnicities.
Fire Hydrants
In Manhattan, people are always tripping over fire hydrants and most buildings are sprinklered.
In Colony Ridge, though, they’ve learned to make do without all those trip hazards that can drive up the developer’s costs. Colony Ridge has a grand total of 59 hydrants in an area 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
Hotel Costs
A hotel room in Manhattan can easily cost hundreds of dollars per night. But people can pitch tents in Colony Ridge and avoid all those pesky mini-bar fees while they work out their business deals.
Colony Ridge Hotel
Plus, you’ll see waaaay more stars in Colony Ridge. Advantage: Liberty County.
Write Your Favorite Travel Guide
Surely everyone can agree that Colony Ridge deserves a place in all of the state’s travel guides. Colony Ridge is truly a tribute to what lack of regulation and enforcement can produce.
We have something unique in Colony Ridge that is a tribute to Texas ingenuity – a place that welcomes people without papers and makes entrepreneurs rich. Let’s put it on the tourist maps and focus the world’s attention on a true Texas marvel.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2023
2210 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230812-RJR_5769-1.jpg?fit=1100%2C728&ssl=17281100adminadmin2023-09-17 19:18:192023-09-19 14:44:53Colony Ridge Now 50 Percent Bigger than Manhattan
Noon, September 16, 2023 – An Associated Press headline this morning trumpeted “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England.” I immediately went to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website to see the most current conditions. Lee had been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone with 75 mph winds.
But it still covers a lot of territory. As of noon, Lee is producing 1-2 foot storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds in portions of Maine. NHC gave the northeastern tip of Maine a 5-15% chance of flash flooding. They predict 1-4 inches of rain over portions of the state that receive rain, though the extreme eastern tip may get up to 6 inches.
Satellite image shows Lee’s influence stretching from maritime Canada to New Jersey.
Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?
Next, I went to NHC’s Climatology page to see how unusual hurricanes are in New England. Because of the colder waters, they’re certainly not as frequent as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But they’re also not unusual as you can clearly see from the image below. It shows hurricane tracks going back to 1851.
Red lines show hurricanes with the winds from 64-90 mph.
Next, I looked at the points of origin for Atlantic storms in the 10-day period each season from Sept. 11 – 20.
Going back to 1851, we can see that dozens of storms have followed Lee’s path .
In fact, during September, there’s at least a 70% annual chance that a hurricane will affect this region (see below).
Lee’s track is THE most common for named storms in the Atlantic during September (red area).
Data goes from 1944 to 2020, but is normalized for 100 years. 1944 was the year NOAA started tracking hurricanes with aircraft.
The AP article related higher than normal sea surface temperatures to BOTH climate change and the risk of being affected by a hurricane in New England. It’s true that temperatures ARE above average off the New England coast this year. But it’s also true that temperatures cycle above and below an “average.” You can’t assume that sea surface temperatures ALWAYS increase.
This 28-second animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 2002-2011 shows how temperatures vary monthly and annually around the world as well as off the coast of New England.
Starting point of animation is August 2002. Note below-normal sea-surface temps off New England coast.
During the decade covered by the animation, SSTs varied from above to below average five times by my count.
It’s fair to relate one stronger than normal hurricane to higher than normal sea surface temperatures. But it’s not valid to assume that hurricanes will continue to get stronger when sea surface temperatures decrease.
The Curse of Data Truncation
And that brings me to my gripe – data truncation in reporting. “Truncation” means “cutting short,” for instance, when you pick start or stop points in an analysis to prove the trend you allege.
Example: you point to above-normal SSTs (this year) and one waning post-tropical storm. Then you conclude that “climate change could bring more monster storms like Lee.”
The implication: climate change is linear and temperatures are going straight up. Therefore, we can expect more monster storms in New England – where Lee will not even make landfall.
Reporting Turned into Advocacy
AP is a great news organization. But on the issue of climate uncertainty, they have crossed the line between reporting and advocacy. AP even admits it.
To their credit, in 2022, AP announced “a sweeping climate change initiative.” They hired 20 additional journalists to supplement existing staff already dedicated to covering climate change. Their mission: “to infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news…”
To help finance its climate coverage, AP accepts backing from several foundations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, which admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
I’m not saying that AP or the Rockefeller Foundation deliberately misled people to further an agenda.
However, I can promise you that writers write about what clients want them to write about. And if they don’t, well, hundreds of other writers are lined up ready to take their jobs.
This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s just the way the world works.
Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation
Everyone should read critically and consult multiple sources. Triangulate on the truth. Had you read someone else’s coverage, you would have reached totally different conclusions. In that regard, I note several stories posted AFTER AP’s story on Lee that did not even mention climate change once. See CNN,CBS, New York Times, NBC, Reuters,USA Today, or Fox, for instance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2023
2209 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230916-1851_2017_allstorms.jpg?fit=1100%2C724&ssl=17241100adminadmin2023-09-16 11:54:002023-09-16 12:25:20Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News
The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA), which is managing a feasibility study on two Spring Creek dams, has run into some unexpected hurdles. They involve the benefit-cost ratio and competing uses for the land. Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager, updated ReduceFlooding on the status of the project.
Project Location Near Montgomery
Harris County Flood Control District, five municipal utility districts, the City of Humble, and the Texas Water Development board are also involved in this project. The dams could reportedly reduce flood levels up to half a foot for 40 miles downstream.
The proposed Spring Creek Flood Control Dams would lie in far northeastern Waller County, a few miles west of Magnolia in Montgomery County.
Second Time Around for Spring Creek Dams
The SJRA first recognized the flood mitigation benefits of dams in the Spring Creek watershed back in 1985. But ironically, while the land could have been bought for a song back then, the projects failed to achieve favorable benefit-cost ratios because so few people lived in the then-rural area.
Fast forward 32 years to Hurricane Harvey when more than 10,000 structures downstream flooded. Experts identified more upstream stormwater-detention as one of the top three priorities for flood mitigation.
When I asked Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager about the status of the dams, he had this to say. “We’re still working on the feasibility study. We ran into a couple hurdles when we started digging further into the proposed reservoirs.”
Benefit-Cost Ratio
What kind of hurdles? “First, after modeling was updated as part of the study, the benefit/cost ratios came out lower than was previously estimated as part of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan,” said Barrett.
“I think we have a solution for this issue,” he said. “Once we optimized dam sizes and incorporated ‘social benefits’ (which the Federal Government now will consider) into the calculations, the BCRs came out at 1.88 and 2.03 for the two reservoirs.” That means the benefits exceed the costs, a crucial hurdle.
“Because of their costs, the reservoirs would almost certainly rely on some level of Federal participation for construction.”
Matt Barrett, PE
Competing Uses for Land
“The other issue,” Barrett continued, “is that each planned reservoir site is also the site of another planned development, which was not identified until we got into the feasibility study.”
A residential/commercial development is planned for the Birch Creek reservoir site, and a large solar farm for the Walnut Creek site.
Barrett said, “No ground has been broken on the former, and I would like to work with the developers to see if we can come up with a scenario where both projects could exist. Construction HAS begun at the solar farm site, and we are coordinating to determine what options there might be for future coexistence at the site.”
Funding Partners Will Determine Path Forward, Timetable
“We are currently scheduling meetings with elected officials to present the project and its challenges,” said Barrett. “We want to get their input. Our goal is to get back together with our funding partners likely early next month to determine our path forward.
“The draft report should be completed by April next year, but that is subject to change. We are behind schedule due to the challenges experienced.”
Project Will Ultimately Depend on Several Factors
Barrett concluded, “Whether the reservoirs ultimately get built will be based on the results of the study and whether there is an entity willing to champion the project through design and construction and ultimately own and take responsibility for operations and maintenance of one or both reservoirs.”
Alternative Possibilities
The SJRA is not actively looking at alternative reservoir sites. However, SJRA and its partners have discussed it. “If we determine the hurdles at the two proposed sites make those sites infeasible, we could consider other sites,” said Barrett. “That said, we selected those two sites because they seemed the most promising. Other sites may not pan out for other reasons. One potential alternative is to look at several smaller detention sites.”
Colony Ridge Now 50 Percent Bigger than Manhattan
Recent expansion of the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County means that the controversial colonia is now 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
By advertising exclusively to Hispanics under the name Terrenos Houston (translation: Houston Land), the developer has largely managed to fly under the radar of regulators as it rapidly expands.
Comparison Of Areas in Google Earth
Colony Ridge now occupies approximately 34.5 square miles. The developer also owns additional land in surrounding areas not yet under development or being developed under different names. But I have NOT counted those areas in this comparison.
In contrast, Google Earth shows that the island of Manhattan occupies 22.8 square miles.
That means Colony Ridge is 51% larger than Manhattan. Yet few people have ever heard of Colony Ridge. As proud Texans, we need to change that.
Other Comparisons of Manhattan and Colony Ridge
Population
Of course, Manhattan still has the population edge over Colony Ridge: 1.6 million vs. something less. The exact population of Colony Ridge is unknown because many undocumented aliens live there who avoided the last census.
Commerce
And…
So Colony Ridge has some catching up to do in the “commerce” department.
Car Repair
Many people in Manhattan don’t bother to own cars, so repair places are few and far between.
But people need vehicles to get around in Colony Ridge; there is no public transit. Accordingly, the development has far more shade-tree mechanics.
And the parking is much easier and cheaper in Colony Ridge than Manhattan.
Scenic Rivers
Manhattan is surrounded by iconic rivers. Colony Ridge has rivers of mud. But at least kids can play soccer in them during droughts.
Trash
Manhattan is famous for its trash. In fact, trash there has helped decide mayoral elections going back decades. Colony Ridge doesn’t have a mayor, so trash is rarely an issue.
Advantage Colony Ridge…if you’re a hoarder.
Home Values
Manhattan is also famous for high-priced real estate. Colony Ridge is famous for its low-priced real estate. Advantage: Colony Ridge on that score. No wonder it’s growing so fast!
That’s important. Look at the angle on the left front corner of the home above.
Parking Your Home
Manhattan has absolutely no place to park your home. However, Colony Ridge has thousands of acres. Advantage Colony Ridge…again!
Yes, in Colony Ridge, Liberty County has something to write home about.
Access
Manhattan is famous for its bridges and tunnels. So is Colony Ridge. This bridge on FM1010 has been washed out for six years.
I’d count this one a toss up, however. Why? It still can take hours to get into and out of BOTH Manhattan AND Colony Ridge.
Diversity
Manhattan is widely regarded as a cross-roads of the world and hosts the United Nations.
Colony Ridge IS the united nations…of South America, Central America, and Mexico in Liberty County.
Regardless, I’d have to give the diversity advantage to Manhattan. I don’t see the Colony Ridge developer taking any initiative to reach out to Poles, Jews, Italians, Irish, Asians, Germans, Czechs, Scandinavians, Indians, Africans or other ethnicities.
Fire Hydrants
In Manhattan, people are always tripping over fire hydrants and most buildings are sprinklered.
In Colony Ridge, though, they’ve learned to make do without all those trip hazards that can drive up the developer’s costs. Colony Ridge has a grand total of 59 hydrants in an area 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
Hotel Costs
A hotel room in Manhattan can easily cost hundreds of dollars per night. But people can pitch tents in Colony Ridge and avoid all those pesky mini-bar fees while they work out their business deals.
Plus, you’ll see waaaay more stars in Colony Ridge. Advantage: Liberty County.
Write Your Favorite Travel Guide
Surely everyone can agree that Colony Ridge deserves a place in all of the state’s travel guides. Colony Ridge is truly a tribute to what lack of regulation and enforcement can produce.
Let’s start a campaign to get it noticed. Write Fodors, National Geographic, TxDoT, Texas Highways, and Texas Monthly.
We have something unique in Colony Ridge that is a tribute to Texas ingenuity – a place that welcomes people without papers and makes entrepreneurs rich. Let’s put it on the tourist maps and focus the world’s attention on a true Texas marvel.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2023
2210 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News
Noon, September 16, 2023 – An Associated Press headline this morning trumpeted “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England.” I immediately went to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website to see the most current conditions. Lee had been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone with 75 mph winds.
But it still covers a lot of territory. As of noon, Lee is producing 1-2 foot storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds in portions of Maine. NHC gave the northeastern tip of Maine a 5-15% chance of flash flooding. They predict 1-4 inches of rain over portions of the state that receive rain, though the extreme eastern tip may get up to 6 inches.
Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?
Next, I went to NHC’s Climatology page to see how unusual hurricanes are in New England. Because of the colder waters, they’re certainly not as frequent as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But they’re also not unusual as you can clearly see from the image below. It shows hurricane tracks going back to 1851.
Next, I looked at the points of origin for Atlantic storms in the 10-day period each season from Sept. 11 – 20.
In fact, during September, there’s at least a 70% annual chance that a hurricane will affect this region (see below).
Data goes from 1944 to 2020, but is normalized for 100 years. 1944 was the year NOAA started tracking hurricanes with aircraft.
The AP article related higher than normal sea surface temperatures to BOTH climate change and the risk of being affected by a hurricane in New England. It’s true that temperatures ARE above average off the New England coast this year. But it’s also true that temperatures cycle above and below an “average.” You can’t assume that sea surface temperatures ALWAYS increase.
This 28-second animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 2002-2011 shows how temperatures vary monthly and annually around the world as well as off the coast of New England.
It’s fair to relate one stronger than normal hurricane to higher than normal sea surface temperatures. But it’s not valid to assume that hurricanes will continue to get stronger when sea surface temperatures decrease.
The Curse of Data Truncation
And that brings me to my gripe – data truncation in reporting. “Truncation” means “cutting short,” for instance, when you pick start or stop points in an analysis to prove the trend you allege.
Example: you point to above-normal SSTs (this year) and one waning post-tropical storm. Then you conclude that “climate change could bring more monster storms like Lee.”
The implication: climate change is linear and temperatures are going straight up. Therefore, we can expect more monster storms in New England – where Lee will not even make landfall.
Reporting Turned into Advocacy
AP is a great news organization. But on the issue of climate uncertainty, they have crossed the line between reporting and advocacy. AP even admits it.
To their credit, in 2022, AP announced “a sweeping climate change initiative.” They hired 20 additional journalists to supplement existing staff already dedicated to covering climate change. Their mission: “to infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news…”
To help finance its climate coverage, AP accepts backing from several foundations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, which admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
I’m not saying that AP or the Rockefeller Foundation deliberately misled people to further an agenda.
However, I can promise you that writers write about what clients want them to write about. And if they don’t, well, hundreds of other writers are lined up ready to take their jobs.
This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s just the way the world works.
Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation
Everyone should read critically and consult multiple sources. Triangulate on the truth. Had you read someone else’s coverage, you would have reached totally different conclusions. In that regard, I note several stories posted AFTER AP’s story on Lee that did not even mention climate change once. See CNN, CBS, New York Times, NBC, Reuters, USA Today, or Fox, for instance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2023
2209 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Spring Creek Dams Facing Hurdles
The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA), which is managing a feasibility study on two Spring Creek dams, has run into some unexpected hurdles. They involve the benefit-cost ratio and competing uses for the land. Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager, updated ReduceFlooding on the status of the project.
Project Location Near Montgomery
Harris County Flood Control District, five municipal utility districts, the City of Humble, and the Texas Water Development board are also involved in this project. The dams could reportedly reduce flood levels up to half a foot for 40 miles downstream.
Second Time Around for Spring Creek Dams
The SJRA first recognized the flood mitigation benefits of dams in the Spring Creek watershed back in 1985. But ironically, while the land could have been bought for a song back then, the projects failed to achieve favorable benefit-cost ratios because so few people lived in the then-rural area.
Fast forward 32 years to Hurricane Harvey when more than 10,000 structures downstream flooded. Experts identified more upstream stormwater-detention as one of the top three priorities for flood mitigation.
When I asked Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager about the status of the dams, he had this to say. “We’re still working on the feasibility study. We ran into a couple hurdles when we started digging further into the proposed reservoirs.”
Benefit-Cost Ratio
What kind of hurdles? “First, after modeling was updated as part of the study, the benefit/cost ratios came out lower than was previously estimated as part of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan,” said Barrett.
“I think we have a solution for this issue,” he said. “Once we optimized dam sizes and incorporated ‘social benefits’ (which the Federal Government now will consider) into the calculations, the BCRs came out at 1.88 and 2.03 for the two reservoirs.” That means the benefits exceed the costs, a crucial hurdle.
Competing Uses for Land
“The other issue,” Barrett continued, “is that each planned reservoir site is also the site of another planned development, which was not identified until we got into the feasibility study.”
A residential/commercial development is planned for the Birch Creek reservoir site, and a large solar farm for the Walnut Creek site.
Barrett said, “No ground has been broken on the former, and I would like to work with the developers to see if we can come up with a scenario where both projects could exist. Construction HAS begun at the solar farm site, and we are coordinating to determine what options there might be for future coexistence at the site.”
Funding Partners Will Determine Path Forward, Timetable
“We are currently scheduling meetings with elected officials to present the project and its challenges,” said Barrett. “We want to get their input. Our goal is to get back together with our funding partners likely early next month to determine our path forward.
“The draft report should be completed by April next year, but that is subject to change. We are behind schedule due to the challenges experienced.”
Project Will Ultimately Depend on Several Factors
Barrett concluded, “Whether the reservoirs ultimately get built will be based on the results of the study and whether there is an entity willing to champion the project through design and construction and ultimately own and take responsibility for operations and maintenance of one or both reservoirs.”
Alternative Possibilities
The SJRA is not actively looking at alternative reservoir sites. However, SJRA and its partners have discussed it. “If we determine the hurdles at the two proposed sites make those sites infeasible, we could consider other sites,” said Barrett. “That said, we selected those two sites because they seemed the most promising. Other sites may not pan out for other reasons. One potential alternative is to look at several smaller detention sites.”
For More Information
See these previous posts on the projects:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/15/2023
2208 Days since Hurricane Harvey