Two more tropical systems are heading into the Gulf of Mexico this week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts the first, Tropical Storm Gamma, will hook around the Yucatan and then turn north Wednesday into Thursday. It should be in the central Bay of Campeche by Friday, still headed north.
Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Gamma
The NHC predicts the second, potential tropical cyclone #26, will intensify into a hurricane and reach the central Gulf Coast of the U.S. by Friday. While a wide range of uncertainty exists regarding its track, dangerous storm surge and coastal flooding from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle is almost a certainty, according the the NHC. Increasing swells and elevated tides will be possible along the Texas coast from mid- into late-week given both systems over the Gulf of Mexico, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist.
Potential Tropical Cyclone #26 should turn into Tropical Storm Delta on Monday then track NW, reaching hurricane strength before landfall.
Lindner also predicts Delta could become a Cat 2 or even a Cat 3 hurricane before reaching land.
No Impact Predicted for Texas At This Time
At this time (Sunday night, 10/4/2020 at 9:45PM), Lindner also feels that Houston area should feel no direct impacts from either TS Gamma or what will likely become TS Delta.
Double Trouble Again
Earlier this year, we had two tropical systems in the Gulf simultaneously. That was only the second time that occurred since 1933. Now it will occur again…in the SAME year with Gamma and what will become Delta. Meteorologists are already starting to talk about potential interaction between the tropical systems, the so-called Fujiwhara effect.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/4/2020 at 9:45 PM based on data from HCFCD and the NHC
1132 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/233230_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-10-04 22:04:362020-10-04 22:04:48Two More Tropical Systems Heading Into Gulf This Week
The center of Beta is currently near Bay City and moving ENE. For the next 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts maximum winds at 30 mph.
If any readers in the Lake Houston Area felt left out by Beta, tonight could be your night. According to the NHC, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and Space City Weather, models continue to show that a heavy band of rainfall will begin to develop over the next few hours across the northern portions of Harris County.
Beta Tuesday evening at 5PM, courtesy of RadarScope. The bands are moving from SE to NW. But the forward motion of the storm is perpendicular, from SW to NE. That could push new feeder bands into the Lake Houston Area later tonight.
Current Radar Trends Show Storm Moving Toward Northeast Harris County
“Current radar trends show what may be the start of this banding feature from Downtown Houston to Jersey Village to Waller where a broken band of heavy to excessive rainfall is forming,” said Lindner at 4pm today.
He continued, “Models show this band continuing well into the evening and overnight hours across much of northern and northeastern Harris County into Liberty County. Training of heavy rainfall is likely with this banding along with flash flooding.”
Additional rainfall of 4-7 inches will be possible over the northern portions of Harris County into Liberty County and possibly southern Montgomery County with isolated totals of 10-12 inches possible.
JEFF LINDNER, HARRIS COUNTY METEOROLOGIST
(Update At 9:10 PM) The radar image above looked like this and heavy rain had started in Kingwood.
Source: RadarScope
However, in the upper San Jacinto Watershed, the expected rainfall amounts will likely produce flooding only on Cypress and Little Cypress Creeks.
In other parts of Houston, the following streams could flood:
Greens Bayou
Halls Bayou
Hunting Bayou
White Oak Bayou tributaries
Cedar Bayou
Gum Gully
Langham Creek
Horsepen Creek
South Mayde Creek
Bear Creek
The largest threat at this point is street flooding. So move your cars out of the street tonight.
West Fork Still At Normal Level
At 4PM CDT Tuesday, the West Fork San Jacinto at US59 is still nearly seven feet from coming out of its banks.
Flood Warning System Shows Effects of Heavy Training
The high rainfall gradient across Harris County should the effects of heavy training by Beta’s feeder bands during the last 48 hours. Places under the bands received 12 to 14 inches of rains. Meanwhile, the Lake Houston Area received only around an inch so far.
Beta’s heaviest rainfall until now focused on SW Harris County. Figures shown represent last 48 hours.Source: Harris County Flood Warning System.Note 13.44 inches on HW288!
Worst Likely Over for SW Harris County
Some heavy rainfall is still possible in already hard-hit southern and southwestern Harris County. However, where and potentially how much may fall in that area is uncertain.
Beta Continuing to Weaken
High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has continued to weaken.
Cloud tops only extend up to 25,000- 30,000 ft, mainly near and northeast of the center. However, they are quite prodigious rain-producers. Rainfall totals of 13-14 inches having been measured across portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far.
The Future of Beta
Since Beta should remain inland throughout the forecast period, the cyclone is not expected to regain tropical storm status. Beta should degenerate into a remnant low within 36 hours and dissipate over Mississippi or Alabama in 96 hours, if not sooner.
At 4 p.m. Tuesday, September 22, 2020, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its last update on Beta.
Said Space City Weather, “The good news is that this mess will begin to clear our of here by Wednesday morning, if not sooner for some areas. The bad news is that we’ve got to get through later today and tonight.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/2020 based on data from HCFCD, NHC and Space City Weather
1120 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 369 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Screen-Shot-2020-09-22-at-5.15.09-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C759&ssl=17591200adminadmin2020-09-22 17:19:482020-09-22 21:18:04Lake Houston Area Could Be in Beta’s Crosshairs Tonight
As of 10:00 a.m. Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) still shows the center of Tropical Storm Beta located offshore. The latest forecasts from the NHC predict that Beta will move onshore near Matagorda Bay, then move up the coastline toward League City.
The NHC also advises that the storm has picked up speed. Yesterday, they estimated 3 mph; today 7 mph.
No one seems to predict that the storm will intensify before landfall.
“Dry air continues to work into and wrap around the large wind field of Beta yielding the disorganized precipitation field with the system.”
Lake Houston Area is the blue dot in the center of the swirl. Red line is predicted path of Beta.Source: Weather Live.
Main Threat: Storm Surge
At this time, Beta’s main threat is to the coastline through storm surge. “Tides are currently running 4.0-4.5 feet in Clear Lake and across coastal sections of Harris County with several sites near the Gulf beaches running 4.0-4.5 feet. Coastal flooding is ongoing and will continue for much of the day. Several roadways are underwater along the coast and around Galveston Bay,” says Lindner.
Lindner continues, “As Beta makes landfall along the middle Texas coast later today, the storm will begin to slow and then turn ENE toward the upper TX coast. It will slowly weaken along the way. This track will keep onshore flow along the upper Texas coast tonight and Tuesday. Tides will remain high into the high tide tonight. Impacts along the coast will continue through the day and into tonight and likely Tuesday.”
Wind Forecast
The most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds, if we get them, is later tonight.
Tropical storm force winds already cover a large part of the mid-Texas coast.
The storm will weaken as it moves toward the Houston Area and turn into a tropical depression. The further north you live from the coastline, the less intense winds will be.
Depending on where you live in Houston, you have a 30% to 100% chance of experiencing topical storm force winds. The Lake Houston Area is on the low end of that range. The National Weather Service predicts that the Lake Houston Area has a chance of seeing 39-57 mph winds. But Spaces City Weather advises that Beta is “not a significant wind threat.”
However, note that tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center of the storm.
Galveston has reported sustained winds of 39 mph and a gust of 43 mph during the past couple of hours.
Rainfall
Dry air has worked into the circulation of Beta, according to Lindner. “This has resulted in a more disorganized and scattered rainfall pattern. However, the system is still capable of heavy rainfall especially near the center later today and in bending structures east of the center for the next 48 hours.”
Models show several banding features developing during the next 48 hours over SE TX, But little consensus exists on where the heaviest rainfall totals may be.
Lindner advises that, “Given that much of the area will reside on the eastern side of a the tropical system, we should keep some level of concern of heavy rainfall and flooding in place through the next 48 hours.”
Lindner predicts that widespread rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches will be possible for areas along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 10-12 inches under any training feeder bands. Totals to the north of I-10 will likely average 3-5 inches with isolated totals of 6-7 inches.
However, the NHC predicts slightly less rain. See the map below.
As long as the rainfall spreads out over the next 48 hours, most of the creeks and bayous can handle the expected rainfall amounts, Lindner says. But should any training develop, flash flooding would be possible.
Watches and Warnings in Effect
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana. That includes Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. That includes the Lake Houston Area.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
Lindner, the NHC and NWS all warn that tornadoes remain a threat with this storm. Especially, tonight and Tuesday.
Track
Yesterday, models predicted that Beta would track up US59 toward the Humble/Kingwood Area. However, today, forecasters think the storm will track closer to the coast. They put it on a line toward League City.
Wind shear will keep Beta’s track close to the coastline, but it will also affect the cyclone’s intensity along with land interaction. The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48 hours.
Summary
Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible, but the danger is “slight.”
Net: Beta is still a threat. But it may be less of one than yesterday. That’s because of the dry air folding into the system and wind sheer which seem to be weakening it somewhat. Be hopeful, but cautious. Expect several inches of rain and high winds in the next two days with both tapering off Wednesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/2020 at noon based on data from NHC, NWS, Jeff Lindner, Space City Weather and Weather Live
1119 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 368 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Screenshot-2020-09-21-at-11.37.19-AM-scaled.jpg?fit=1183%2C2560&ssl=125601183adminadmin2020-09-21 11:46:032020-09-21 11:52:04Beta Moving Ashore Today Then Likely Tracking Slightly South of Houston
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just upgraded Tropical Depression 19 to Tropical Storm Sally. And they will likely upgrade it again to a Hurricane on Monday.
Miami and Tampa Bay radar currently show a defined center of circulation and deep convection across much of Florida Bay and the Florida Keys.
The National Hurricane Center is now tracking seven storms lined up in the Atlantic.
Sally’s Likely Landfall in Louisiana
Sally’s cone of uncertainty no longer extends as far west as Houston. For now. See below.
On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday. Sally will then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Hurricane Predicted
Maximum sustained winds have already increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Sally will likely become a hurricane by late Monday. (Note how the S’s turn to H’s in the cone map above.)
Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) south and southeast of the center.
Intensity guidance is inching up some. Conditions over the eastern Gulf of Mexico make a hurricane likely at landfall. “In fact,” says the NHC, “the hurricane models show significant intensification of Sally. This will need to be closely monitored over the next 1-2 days.”
Rainfall
Florida
Sally should produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight. NHC expects 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to Tampa Bay.
This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across Southern and Central Florida.
Central Gulf
Through Tuesday, NHC expects Sally to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast between Florida and SE Louisiana. NHC predicts 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.
Flooding Likely
NHC says, “This is expected to be a slow-moving system. Sally will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “Nearly all guidance slows Sally to around 5mph as the system approaches the coast. That will result in prolonged impacts and potentially devastating amounts of rainfall.” Remember Harvey?
Stay Alert
Even though Houston is outside of the cone of uncertainty today, stay alert. Remember how the tracks of Marco and Laura kept shifting hourly. The NHC cautions that “The average NHC track error at 96 hours is around 150 miles. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/12/2020
1110 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/two_atl_2d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2020-09-12 15:22:122020-09-12 15:22:53TD 19 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally
Updates on Tropical Storm Marco and Laura issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 p.m. EDT show both storms aiming toward Louisiana at this point. That doesn’t mean the Houston Area is out of the woods. The forecasts has changed four times since yesterday. Here’s the latest from the NHC.
Latest Cones of Uncertainty for Marco and Laura
Houston is now only on the fringe of the cone of uncertainty for Marco.
Even though forecasts for Laura have been shifting steadily west, NHC now shows Houston outside the cone of uncertainty.
Note, however, the images above do not indicate the width of the storms, just their potential tracks up to five days out. The width of the cone indicates the degree of uncertainty about the track.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Laura and 90 miles (150 km) from the center of Marco.
They also predict that Marco will dump 1 to 3 inches (isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches) on the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. This rainfall, they say, may result in areas of flash and urban flooding.
Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional rainfall and wind impacts by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
Wind Predictions
We could feel the arrival of tropical storm force winds from Marco around mid-day on Monday.
Tropical storm force winds from Laura could be felt in Houston on Wednesday morning.
However, there’s only a 20-30% chance we will feel 40 mph winds from either Laura or Marco.
Rainfall and Flooding Predictions
At present, NOAA shows Marco dumping 2-6 inches of rain, mainly over the states east of us. (See below).
As of 4:50 EDT Saturday, NOAA is predicting less than an inch of rainfall for the Houston Area.
NOAA has not issued rainfall predictions yet for Laura. However, NOAA does give the Houston region a marginal (5%) chance of flash flooding from Marco.
As of 4:50 pm Saturday, NOAA predicts Houston has only a 5% chance of flash flooding from the storms.
Better Safe Than Sorry; How to Stay Up to Date
Forecasters for Laura emphasize that the second storm could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas affected by Marco.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns, “While the situation for SE TX is looking better this afternoon, it would be important to maintain a close watch on this system in the event it weakens significantly and the system becomes more steered by the low level flow.” That could shift it back in the direction of Houston.
You can also sign up for text alerts from Ready Harris: Text MARCO to 888777 for emergency alerts. Better safe than sorry.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2020
1089 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/205347.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2020-08-22 17:49:102020-08-22 17:50:44Lastest NHC Forecasts Show Marco, Laura Slamming Louisiana
As of 11 a.m. Friday morning, we have Tropical Depression 14 and Tropical Storm Laura poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters predict both could intensify into Category 1 hurricanes. Not many living people can remember the last time we had two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist found only one other instance. That was in 1933 when two tropical systems made landfall near the Florida panhandle and near Brownsville, Tx.
That said, the National Hurricane Center updated forecasts for TD14 and Laura at 11 a.m. Here are the current positions of the storms.
TD 14 is the most imminent threat. It is currently in the Bay of Honduras battering the Bay Islands.
TD 13 intensified into a tropical storm overnight and was given the name Laura. It is near the windward islands, heading NW toward Cuba and Florida. The big question: Will land interaction weaken the storm? At this hour, some models show it dissipating. Others show it intensifying into a hurricane.
Current Forecast for TD 14
The Lake Houston Area could start feeling tropical storm force winds (greater than 39mph) by next Monday night.The current most likely timing for the arrival of TS (40mph) winds would be around 11:00 p.m. Monday to 2:00 a.m. Tuesday.Current forecasts show the storm briefly intensifying into a hurricane and then diminishing to a tropical storm as it approaches the upper Texas Coast between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. NHC says it’s too early to determine exact impacts to the upper Texas coast. Too much uncertainty remains.
Rainfall Potential
Last night, Channel 2 KPRC news predicted the possibility of 12 – 18 inches of rain out of this storm. That may be high.
At this time, Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts the storm will drop 3 – 5 inches of rain, mainly to the east of I-45, with some higher amounts possible.
“Grounds are very dry over the region, so the area soils will be able to handle some rainfall…at least a few inches…before significant run-off begins,” says Lindner. “Confidence is not high on the track and that will in the end determine where the maximum rain falls…with most of the heavy rain falling along and east of the track of the center.”
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is only predicting a 50-60% chance of rain for next Tuesday.
The lower estimates may give hope to the people in Elm Grove who flooded last year. The detention ponds now in place on Woodridge Village were designed to handle that much rain. But if we got 18″…
At this time, the SJRA is not releasing any water. Lake Conroe is at 199.84 feet. Lake Houston is down about three-quarters of a foot from its normal level.
Tropical Storm Laura
Tropical Storm Laura is currently racing west at 21 mph.The outer tropical storm force winds could arrive in Louisiana by Tuesday morning next week. That’s about 12 hours after TD-14 arrives on the Texas coast.Laura will likely intensify into a hurricane by the come it strikes the eastern Gulf coast.
Some Interaction Between Two Storms is Possible
Some models indicate interaction between TD 14 and Laura. That could slow TD 14’s forward motion over the Gulf. However, at this time, it is unclear whether Laura will have any influence on TD 14.
Preparation
Remember: Chance favors the prepared. Make sure you have fresh batteries. Stock your supplies. Fill your gas tank. Refill your prescriptions.
Check weather forecasts at least two or three times a day.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/145757-1.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2020-08-21 12:11:372020-08-21 12:11:50Not Since 1933 Have Two Hurricanes Hit the Gulf Simultaneously
After predicting that the 2020 hurricane season would be slightly above average earlier in the year, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now predicts the season will be extremely active. An NHC outlook released Thursday indicates this season could almost double the average.
NHC predicts 19 to 25 named storms, though they do not predict how many will make landfall. Of those, NHC also predicts 7 to 11 will become hurricanes and 3 to 6 will become major hurricanes.
Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).
Factors Behind Change
Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are:
Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
Reduced vertical wind shear
Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds
An enhanced west African monsoon
Ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since that time.
Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify.
Underscores Need for Preparedness
Said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “It is now more important than ever to stay informed with our forecasts, have a preparedness plan, and heed guidance from local emergency management officials.”
“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.”
Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/7/2020 based on predictions by the NHC
1074 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GRAPHIC-UPDATE-2020-Hurricane-Outlook-piechart-080320-3840x2388_0.jpg?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=17421200adminadmin2020-08-06 18:38:162020-08-06 18:46:38National Hurricane Center Increases Prediction for 2020
Arrival time along the U.S. Gulf Coast should be sometime Sunday evening, according to current predictions.
Impacts to U.S.
Strong winds and high seas are expected east of the storm center.
Risks to the US mainland include storm surge, heavy rainfall, and high winds beginning this weekend from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
NHC emphasizes that it is still to soon to determine the exact location, timing and magnitude of these impacts. The best plan: monitor progress of the storm and make sure you are prepared.
Houston Likely To Be On Clean Side
Current projections take the storm up Central Louisiana. So Houston will likely be on the “clean” side of the storm. Because rotation around a low is counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere, the storm is likely to dump the most rain east of the center.
5-day forecast as of 10 a.m. CDT on Thursday from NHC. Note how cone has shifted east of Galveston Bay.
10% Chance of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds in Houston
Forecasters currently give Houston a 10% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds.
However, Houston still has a 10% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds because of the width of the storm.
Arrival of Winds Saturday Night into Sunday Morning
Earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds will likely be Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Winds should arrive Saturday night or Sunday.
Impacts Far Wider than Cone of Uncertainty
Storm impacts can be felt far beyond the center of the storm as the satellite image below shows. Heavy rainfall will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
Tropical storm and storm-surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday.
As you prepare for Cristobal, remember how wide the feeder bands are.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/4/2020
1010 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 259 after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Cristobal.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=112001200adminadmin2020-06-04 10:38:532020-06-04 10:48:04Cristobal Likely to Reach U.S. Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday
Cristobal should approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The latest predictions from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggest it should reach Louisiana Sunday morning by 8 a.m. Houston remains within the cone of uncertainty. The storm has already dumped torrential rains on Mexico and Central America and produced life-threatening flash flooding.
NHC forecast track of TS Christobal shows the center of the storm arriving in Louisiana sometime between Sunday and Monday.
No one is yet predicting the exact point of impact, the intensity at landfall, or the potential rainfall. Note, however, that the storm is significantly bigger than the center. Areas far away from the track may still experience significant impacts.
So far, this storm appears to be Mexico’s and Central America’s version of Harvey in that it has stalled in one location and dropped heavy rainfall for 4-5 days.
Current Location and Conditions
Here’s what’s happening at this hour.
Cristobal dipped inland this morning in the Mexican State of Campeche around around 8 a.m. CDT. Aircraft and surface reports indicate intensity at about 50 kt. (57.5 mph).
Now that the center of circulation has moved inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. The NHC anticipates Cristobal will weaken to a topical depression by tomorrow evening. However, they also predict the system will re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.
Sheer Expected in Northern Gulf
NHC says global models show increased southwesterly shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this should limit intensification. However, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
Impacts to Date
Damaging and deadly flooding has occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Up to 35 inches of rain has already fallen in some locations since May 30.
Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.
Rainfall in Mexico and Central America Through Friday
NHC predicts Cristobal will produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night:
Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Mexican state of southern Chiapas…15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca…5 to 10 inches.
Southern Guatemala…Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador…Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Belize and Honduras…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Threat to U.S. by Sunday
NHC forecasts Cristobal to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night.
Christobal should then move northward over the central and northern Gulf over the weekend. Risks to the US Gulf coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle include storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning this weekend.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, people and businesses in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Earliest Arrival Times of Tropical Storm Force Winds. NHC prediction as of 6/3/2020 at 10AM CDT.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/3/2020 at 11:30 a.m.
1009 days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/145637_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-06-03 11:30:192020-06-03 11:40:59NHC Predicts Christobal to Hit Louisiana by Sunday Morning, Houston Still Within Cone
It’s hard to get a feeling for the enormity of the West Fork mouth bar in a still photo. Something more than half a mile long is reduced to 1200 pixels. That fundamentally alters the scale between nature and humans. Instead of being a thousand times bigger, it’s a hundred times smaller. That does not produce the same emotional impact. It’s like looking at a picture of a mountain instead of standing at the base of one and feeling dwarfed as you look up.
Video Comes Closer to Capturing Imensity
However, tonight, at sunset, I flew a drone over mouth bar and captured the entire flight on video. At 30 miles per hour, it took 1 minute and 9 seconds to get from one end to the other.
The rapidly vanishing San Jacinto West Fork mouth bar. Mechanical dredging reduces the size a little more every day.Looking south from Scenic Shores in King’s Point across mouth bar toward FM1960 Causeway downriver.Looking west toward West Lake Houston Parkway.Excavators working western tip of mouth bar. They shaver one row after another off, as if they are nibbling an ear of corn.From the upstream to downstream tip measures more than half a mile.At the eastern end, it almost look as if a bored dredging is carving his initials in the bar so that they can be seen from outer space.Looking south across the eastern edge toward the FM1960 bridge again.
Tonight, as we watch Tropical Storm Cristobal dump torrential rains on Mexico, it’s hard to escape thinking of Hurricane Harvey. It dumped torrential rains on Houston and formed this monster mouth bar almost overnight. Remember, like an ice berg, the part you see above water is only a tiny percentage of what you can’t see below water.
Thinking of Cristobal, Remembering Harvey
As I look at the cloudless skies and soft sunset, I can’t help but wonder. Will Cristobal miss us. Or is this just the calm before the storm?
Cristobal has produced life-threatening flash flooding in Mexico and Central America. The National Hurricane Center forecasts it to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Risks include storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts this coming weekend across the US Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. NHC reiterates that it’s too soon predict the exact location, timing and magnitude of these impacts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/3/2020
1009 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/20200602-DJI_0005.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-06-02 22:27:092020-06-02 22:52:41Buzzing The Mouth Bar: Low Altitude Flyover at 30 MPH Takes 1 Minute 9 Seconds
