Cristobal Likely to Reach U.S. Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday

The latest report from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 10 a.m. 6/4/2020 indicates that Tropical Storm Cristobal has moved inland in southern Mexico and has weakened to a tropical depression. All coastal watches and warnings in Mexico have been lifted. Maximum sustained winds are now at 35 mph with higher gusts. However, the NHC also predicts that the storm will move back over water by Friday afternoon and then re-intensify into a tropical storm as it moves north into the central Gulf Saturday and Sunday.

Arrival time along the U.S. Gulf Coast should be sometime Sunday evening, according to current predictions.

Impacts to U.S.

Strong winds and high seas are expected east of the storm center.

Risks to the US mainland include storm surge, heavy rainfall, and high winds beginning this weekend from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.

NHC emphasizes that it is still to soon to determine the exact location, timing and magnitude of these impacts. The best plan: monitor progress of the storm and make sure you are prepared.

Houston Likely To Be On Clean Side

Current projections take the storm up Central Louisiana. So Houston will likely be on the “clean” side of the storm. Because rotation around a low is counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere, the storm is likely to dump the most rain east of the center.

*5-day forecast as of 10 a.m. CDT on Thursday from NHC*. *Note how cone has shifted east of Galveston Bay.*

10% Chance of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds in Houston

Forecasters currently give Houston a 10% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds.

*However, Houston still has a 10% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds because of the width of the storm.*

Arrival of Winds Saturday Night into Sunday Morning

Earliest arrival time of tropical storm force winds will likely be Saturday night into Sunday morning.

*Winds should arrive Saturday night or Sunday.*

Impacts Far Wider than Cone of Uncertainty

Storm impacts can be felt far beyond the center of the storm as the satellite image below shows. Heavy rainfall will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.

Tropical storm and storm-surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday.