For the last two days, the National Hurricane Center has upped the chances of a tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico this week. This afternoon, the chances went from 80% to 90% at 1 pm CDT. Now, at 5:30, Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist is saying, TD 3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Surface observations and visible satellite images indicate that remains of Pacific TS Amanda have now moved over the Bay of Campeche and a low level circulation has become re-established.
Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized.National Hurricane Center
Further Development Expected in Next 24 Hours
The disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support development. The NHC says a tropical depression or storm will likely form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.
NHC says the system could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Mexico and Central America this week.
A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for the coast of Mexico.
Longer Range Outlook Cloudier
NHC forecasts the system to move northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week after wandering around in the Bay of Campeche. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the US Gulf Coast.
The Center still lists the chances of tropical storm formation at 90 percent. Satellite images already show the beginning of rotation.
Conditions are favorable for some slow increase in strength as the surface circulation moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Upper level winds within a large area of deep tropical moisture suggest TD 3 will likely become a tropical storm over the next 24 hours. A USAF mission is planned for Tuesday to determine the organization and intensity of the system. After 24 hours much of the intensity forecast will be driven by how much the center interacts with the landmass of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Likely with Winds Up To 60 MPH
The official forecast brings TD 3 to a 60mph tropical storm as it begins to eject NNE into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Significant changes to the forecast track and intensity will be possible with this system over the next several days.
Separately, NOAA has issued a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Mexico.
What a day for the start of hurricane season! People along the US Gulf coast should review hurricane preparation plans and make sure hurricane supply kits are fully stocked and check weather forecasts at least once a day this week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 5:30 pm
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