TD 3 Close to Tropical Storm Strength; Dumping Torrential Rains Over Mexico, Central America

Confidence is increasing that a tropical system will be moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. It will threaten some portions of the US Gulf coast. However, the National Hurricane Center advises that it’s still too early to pinpoint where the greatest impacts may be.

Harris County Flood Control Meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the Gulf coast to fully stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to enact. “By Sunday morning, it is likely there will be a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico,” he says.

Source: NHC. Indicates conditions as of 10a.m. CDT on 6/2/2020.

At This Moment…

Slow-moving Tropical Depression Three (TD 3) is still in the Bay of Campeche and:


Summary of Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next within 24 to 36 hours.

Current Location and Conditions

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The depression is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday.

NHC forecasts the center of the cyclone to remain near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.

USAF plane recorded flight-level winds of 44 kts.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

TD 3 A Rainmaker

NHC expects TD 3 to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.

The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.

Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Wind Probabilities

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight.

Source: NOAA. Probably Tracking of TD 3 and earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds.

It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant. A chance exists that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property.

Key Takeaways

  • Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
  • Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
  • The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season.

Houston Forecast For the Week

Today, mostly sunny with light winds. Expect similar conditions on Wednesday, with the possibility of scattered showers and highs of around 90 degrees.

The second half of the week will see warmer weather as high pressure continues to build over the area. We are likely to see high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Mostly sunny skies and only slight rain chances during the afternoon hours. Nights will be warm and muggy, in the 70s.

The location of a high pressure system to our north late in the week will likely determine the track of TD 3. Monitor forecasts closely.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/2020

1008 Days after Hurricane Harvey