NHC Upgrades Chances of Topical System Formation in Gulf to 80%
Update: This post was created at 10 a.m. As of 1 p.m. the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical development another 10% to 90%.
Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda moved into Central America and southern Mexico last weekend. It is now poised to re-emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and may form another tropical system. Since yesterday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chances of formation within the next two days from 40% to 80%. The NHC also upgraded chances of formation within five days from 50% to 80%.
Will Likely Move into Bay of Campeche
NHC expects this large area of disturbed weather to move northwestward over the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche later today or tonight. Environmental conditions there are expected to be conducive to support development.
A new tropical depression is likely to form within within the next day or so.National Hurricane Center
The system is moving around the northern side of a nearly stationary central American monsoon trough.
Conditions over the Bay of Campeche appear favorable for slow development of a surface low pressure system. Those conditions include:
- Warm sea surface temperatures
- Light upper level winds
- Rising air motions
- An envelope of tropical moisture.
Heavy Rainfall for Southern Neighbors For the Moment
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall should continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.
System Likely to Loop in Bay of Campeche Before Moving North
The tropical system will loop or remained stalled in the Bay of Campeche (the bay between the Yucatan and Mexican mainland) for the next 2-4 days. After that, most models take it toward the US Gulf coast, but there is little agreement among the models at this early stage of formation. Currently, they indicate landfall anywhere between Mexico and Florida. We should have a better indication of the track toward the middle of this week.
Official Start of Hurricane Season Today
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. The list of names for 2020 follows:
Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that develops this season will be Cristobal.
The NHC monitors significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation. NHC updates forecasts at 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 AM, and 7 PM CDT.
Harris County Flood Control meteorologist Jeff Lindner advises residents along the US Gulf coast to closely monitor the progress of this system. “Now is a very good time to review plans and fully stock preparation kits,” he says.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/1/2020 at 10am with thanks to NHC, HCFCD and Univ. of Wisconsin
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